FactChecked: 2024 Lok Sabha exit polls reveal conflicting predictions

Shashi Tharoor terms exit polls as unscientific
Image : ndtv.com

The 2024 Lok Sabha exit polls have been released, and the exit polls are sending shockwaves throughout the nation. With apparent contradictions on its face, political analysts and citizens alike are struggling to make sense of the outcome. The exit polls indicate easy cake walk for the ruling BJP, with polls showing a significant lead for the incumbent party while suggesting dismal performance for the opposition INDIA alliance, in many cases showing more seats for the ruling party than the total number of seats available in a state. This discrepancy has left many people scratching their heads, wondering how the polls could be so vastly bizarre.

Contradictory exit poll figures

Himachal Pradesh: Zee News exit poll suggests that NDA is winning 6-8 seats in the state while opposition INDIA alliance is reduced to naught. As a matter of fact, Himachal Pradesh has only 4 Lok Sabha seats, so can BJP supposedly win 6-8 seats in the state! Pertinently, most exit polls had shown BJP winning the Himachal Pradesh state assembly elections in 2022, while the party actually lost the elections.

Haryana: Zee News has shown NDA capturing around 16-19 seats in the state, with INDIA alliance trailing at 2-4 seats. To fact check the claim, Haryana has only 10 Lok Sabha Seats!

Rajasthan: News 24 Today-Chanakya exit polls posted on X (formerly known as twitter) claiming that NDA is likely to win 33 seats in the state even though the state has only 25 Lok Sabha seats! 

Bihar: India Today’s Axis My India exit polls suggests LJP is likely to win between 4-6 seats in the state which has a total of 40 Lok Sabha seats. Pertinently, LJP is only contesting in 5 seats, so how can it secure 6 seats?

Tamil Nadu: Zee News has shown Congress winning about 13-15 seats out of total 39 seats in the state. As a matter of fact, Congress is only contesting in 9 seats!

Exits polls claim significant turnaround in favour of BJP

Orrisa: In the Lok Sabha 2019, BJP won 8 seats in the state while 12 seats went to BJD. As per India Today – Axis My India exit polls for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, BJP will win 18-20 seats in the state which has a total of 21 seats, while BJD will be reduced to 0-2 seats, and Congress may win 0-1 seat. Furthermore, the same poll suggests BJP grabbing 51% vote share with BJD settling for 33% vote share. 

West Bengal: Multiple exit polls suggests that for the first time BJP may trump TMC by winning up to 26 seats while TMC could be reduced to below 20 seats, with as low as 16 seats. Notably, West Bengal has a total of 42 seats.

Karnataka: India Today exit polls suggest that NDA may bag 23-25 seats out of total 28 seats in the state while Congress could be reduced to 3-5 seats. Similarly, India TV-CNX gave NDA 19-25 seats and Congress 4-8 seats. ABP News-C Voter has predicted 23-25 for NDA and 3-5 for Congress. 

Jharkhand: Aaj Tak exit polls have predicted CPIML to win 2-3 seats in the state which has 14 seats in total, even though CPIML is only contesting in 1 seat!

All-India level poll predictions


As the country waits with bated breath for the final results to be announced, speculation runs wild. There is still a hesitation that the exit polls may have been manipulated, while some argue that the true sentiments of the people are simply too complex to be accurately captured through exit polls. Amidst all the chaos and confusion, there are those who remain hopeful that the true voice of the people will soon be revealed. They believe in the power of democracy and the ability of the Indian electorate to make an informed and rational choice. The 2024 Lok Sabha exit polls may have been filled with contradictions and uncertainties, but let us hope that the voters will prevail as the election results are finally revealed on June 4th.



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