A closer look at Varanasi’s Golden Hour Voter Turnout

Image: PTI
 

The allegations surrounding polling malpractices refuse to die down. Even as the controversy surrounding the Electronic Voting Machines (EVM) is still fresh, new accusations are being made that there was a sudden spike in the number of votes cast in the last hour of voting in Varanasi.

To understand the difference in numbers, let us take a closer look at polling numbers released by the Uttar Pradesh State Election Commission at 5 P.M on the day of polling for each phase on Twitter as well as the final figures as per the Election Commission of India’s Voter Turnout App.

*Source: Official Twitter handle of CEO, UP, and ECI’s Voter Turnout App

It is clear from the figures above, that in each phase there has been an increase in the turnout percentage in the last hour by approximately 3-5 percent. The lowest increase was in Phase 6 (only 3.12 percent), and the highest was in Phase 4 (5.31 percent). Going by this, the increase in the voter turnout percentage in Phase 7 stands at 4.70 percent, which is less than that in Phase 4.

District-wise voter turnout in Phase 7

Now let us take a closer look at district-wise changes in the voter turnout in Phase 7, where polling took place in 54 Assembly seats spread across nine districts: Azamgarh, Bhadohi, Chandauli, Ghazipur, Jaunpur, Mau, Mirzapur, Sonebhadra and Varanasi. As mentioned earlier, the Approximate Voter Turnout Trend as per the ECI’s Voter Turnout App stood at 58.88 percent overall. Here are the district-wise figures as per the Voter Turnout App:

Azamgarh 57.49

Bhadohi 57.43

Chandauli 62.77

Ghazipur 59.13

Jaunpur 57.18

Mau 57.79

Mirzapur 60.34

Sonebhadra 59.05

Varanasi 60.58

This is where one can see a marked difference, because the figures released at 5 PM were much lower for one district – Varanasi.

https://twitter.com/ceoup/status/1500816842859814912

Let us look at the figures, side by side.

Clearly the voter turnout in the last hour of polling was highest in Varanasi in the second phase, followed closely by Ghazipur. But what does this mean?

While there are widespread allegations of bogus voting, there might be another explanation for this – the anti-incumbency factor. Typically, a high voter turnout indicates that voters want a change, which drives them to the polling booth in large numbers.

It is also possible that people wanted to finish their other commitments and priorities such as domestic responsibilities, professional work etc. before going out to vote. Even if polling day is a holiday, self-employed people and daily wage earners often don’t have the luxury to skip work as the income loss of even one day can severely impact their finances.

Therefore, while it is important to remain vigilant, it is also important to take all possible explanations into consideration before jumping to conclusions. Polling is over, and counting begins at 8 A.M on March 10, 2022. The people have spoken. Now, let us find out what they have said.

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