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Health India

Covid-19: Scientists revise peak predictions upwards to 38-48 lakh cases in mid-May

Meanwhile, government remains remorseless, even as the healthcare infrastructure struggles to keep up

Sabrangindia 29 Apr 2021

Image Courtesy:indiatvnews.com

10 days ago, scientists from Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) had used a mathematical model to predict that India’s Covid graph could peak at 33-35 lakh active cases by mid-May and decline thereafter. But the same scientists have now revised their predictions upwards.

Now, these scientists from IIT Hyderabad and Kanpur say that the peak numbers could range from 38-48 lakhs between May 14 and 18. They also say that the daily infections could go as high as 4.4 fresh cases between May 4 and 8. Given how, we are already recording over 3.5 lakh new cases every day, the number doesn’t seem that far off.

How was the model designed?

The scientists used a model called Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive), and Removed Approach' (SUTRA) to arrive at the numbers. Maninder Agrawal, professor at the Department of Computer Science and Engineering, IIT-Kanpur, has been posting the findings on Twitter and predicts that while cases in West Bengal will peak between May 1 and 5, in Kerala they will peak between May 5 and 10.

The SUTRA model uses contact rate, reach and the ratio of detected to undetected cases as the three main parameters to predict the course of the pandemic. While, prima facie this seems sound, one cannot ignore that the quality of data available may be unreliable in the first place. This is not only because of poor contact tracing mechanisms, but also under-reportage of cases and even deaths due to Covid. SabrangIndia has been reporting on several such instances in GujaratMadhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.  

Growing international condemnation and flight bans

Meanwhile, the Indian administration has been at the receiving end of scathing criticism from international publications. On Wednesday, French newspaper Le Monde squarely blamed Prime Minister Narendra Modi saying, “Such a backlash cannot be explained solely by the unpredictability of a virus and its variants. The lack of foresight, the arrogance and demagoguery of Narendra Modi are obviously among the causes of a situation which today seems out of control and requires international mobilization. The Prime Minister, after having paralyzed and traumatized his country in 2020 by decreeing brutal confinement, abandoning millions of migrant workers, completely lowered his guard at the beginning of 2021.”

Many countries including Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Honk Kong, Indonesia, Italy, New Zealand, Kuwait and UAE have instituted varying degrees of bans on people travelling from India. The US Center for Disease Control has issued an advisory to Americans not to travel to India.

Apathy and arrogance displayed by the government

Meanwhile, several public events and gatherings continue to be conducted and planned in India. Uttarakhand appears to be tempting fate announcing Char Dham Yatra, even though thousands of participants of the recently held Kumbh Mela were diagnosed with Covid-19.

The attitude of those in power ranges from insensitive to outright apathetic as they appear to be more interested in furthering their own political agendas. While Haryana Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar tried to brush aside allegations of mismatch in Covid death data with a shocking “dead won’t come back to life” remark, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Adityanath has ‘warned’ hospitals that put up notices saying they have run out of oxygen, accusing them of spreading false panic.

Related:

Anger simmers as bodies pile up outside crematoria in Gujarat
Kumbh Mela: Over 25,000 devotees and 1,000 seers participate in Shahi Snan

Covid-19: Scientists revise peak predictions upwards to 38-48 lakh cases in mid-May

Meanwhile, government remains remorseless, even as the healthcare infrastructure struggles to keep up

Image Courtesy:indiatvnews.com

10 days ago, scientists from Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) had used a mathematical model to predict that India’s Covid graph could peak at 33-35 lakh active cases by mid-May and decline thereafter. But the same scientists have now revised their predictions upwards.

Now, these scientists from IIT Hyderabad and Kanpur say that the peak numbers could range from 38-48 lakhs between May 14 and 18. They also say that the daily infections could go as high as 4.4 fresh cases between May 4 and 8. Given how, we are already recording over 3.5 lakh new cases every day, the number doesn’t seem that far off.

How was the model designed?

The scientists used a model called Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive), and Removed Approach' (SUTRA) to arrive at the numbers. Maninder Agrawal, professor at the Department of Computer Science and Engineering, IIT-Kanpur, has been posting the findings on Twitter and predicts that while cases in West Bengal will peak between May 1 and 5, in Kerala they will peak between May 5 and 10.

The SUTRA model uses contact rate, reach and the ratio of detected to undetected cases as the three main parameters to predict the course of the pandemic. While, prima facie this seems sound, one cannot ignore that the quality of data available may be unreliable in the first place. This is not only because of poor contact tracing mechanisms, but also under-reportage of cases and even deaths due to Covid. SabrangIndia has been reporting on several such instances in GujaratMadhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.  

Growing international condemnation and flight bans

Meanwhile, the Indian administration has been at the receiving end of scathing criticism from international publications. On Wednesday, French newspaper Le Monde squarely blamed Prime Minister Narendra Modi saying, “Such a backlash cannot be explained solely by the unpredictability of a virus and its variants. The lack of foresight, the arrogance and demagoguery of Narendra Modi are obviously among the causes of a situation which today seems out of control and requires international mobilization. The Prime Minister, after having paralyzed and traumatized his country in 2020 by decreeing brutal confinement, abandoning millions of migrant workers, completely lowered his guard at the beginning of 2021.”

Many countries including Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Honk Kong, Indonesia, Italy, New Zealand, Kuwait and UAE have instituted varying degrees of bans on people travelling from India. The US Center for Disease Control has issued an advisory to Americans not to travel to India.

Apathy and arrogance displayed by the government

Meanwhile, several public events and gatherings continue to be conducted and planned in India. Uttarakhand appears to be tempting fate announcing Char Dham Yatra, even though thousands of participants of the recently held Kumbh Mela were diagnosed with Covid-19.

The attitude of those in power ranges from insensitive to outright apathetic as they appear to be more interested in furthering their own political agendas. While Haryana Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar tried to brush aside allegations of mismatch in Covid death data with a shocking “dead won’t come back to life” remark, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Adityanath has ‘warned’ hospitals that put up notices saying they have run out of oxygen, accusing them of spreading false panic.

Related:

Anger simmers as bodies pile up outside crematoria in Gujarat
Kumbh Mela: Over 25,000 devotees and 1,000 seers participate in Shahi Snan

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03

Jan

Pan-India

Saturday

05

Dec

05 pm onwards

Rise in Rage!

North Gate, JNU campus

Thursday

26

Nov

10 am onwards

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2020

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In the year devastated by the Covid 19 Pandemic, India witnessed apathy against some of its most marginalised people and vilification of dissenters by powerful state and non state actors. As 2020 draws to a close, and hundreds of thousands of Indian farmers continue their protest in the bitter North Indian cold. Read how Indians resisted all attempts to snatch away fundamental and constitutional freedoms.
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Campaigns

Sunday

03

Jan

Pan-India

Saturday

05

Dec

05 pm onwards

Rise in Rage!

North Gate, JNU campus

Thursday

26

Nov

10 am onwards

Delhi Chalo

Pan India

IN FACT

Analysis

Taliban 2021

Taliban in Afghanistan: A look back

Communalism Combat had taken a deep dive into the lives of people of Afghanistan under the Taliban regime. Here we reproduce some of our archives documenting the plight of hapless Afghanis, especially women, who suffered the most under the hardline regime.
2020

Milestones 2020

In the year devastated by the Covid 19 Pandemic, India witnessed apathy against some of its most marginalised people and vilification of dissenters by powerful state and non state actors. As 2020 draws to a close, and hundreds of thousands of Indian farmers continue their protest in the bitter North Indian cold. Read how Indians resisted all attempts to snatch away fundamental and constitutional freedoms.
Migrant Diaries

Migrant Diaries

The 2020 COVID pandemic brought to fore the dismal lives that our migrant workers lead. Read these heartbreaking stories of how they lived before the pandemic, how the lockdown changed their lives and what they’re doing now.
Delhi HC

Hate Speech and Delhi Pogrom 2020

A spate of provocative speeches, that amount to hate speech in law and should be prosecuted allowed blood letting to spill on the streets of north east Delhi in February-March 2020

Archives