If we are to believe most mainstream exit polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is going to win the Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections. While some say it will be a landslide victory, others predict a more conservative margin of victory. But there are two polls that say that it is the Samajwadi Party (SP) that will form the next government in UP. These are the Deshbandhu Poll and the Atma Sakshi Poll.
As we have reported earlier, according to the Deshbandhu Exit Poll the BJP will fold under 150 seats! This is a shocker, given how the UP Assembly has a total of 403 seats and the halfway mark is 202. But according to this poll, the BJP will only get 134-150 seats, while it is the SP that will come to power with as many as 228-244 seats. This not only makes the SP the single largest party, but also comfortably takes them well past the halfway mark. Deshbandhu also gives the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) 10-24 seats, and the Indian National Congress (INC) 1-9 seats.
Then there is the Atma Sakshi poll that has been reported widely in the South Indian news media like T9 Telugu news channel and Sakshi TV, but whose predictions are completely missing from English and Hindi language news media. According to this poll, the SP could win 235-240 seats, while the BJP would only get 138-140 seats. It gives the BSP 19-23 seats, INC 12-16 and other 1-2 seats. This poll also shows a very interesting vote share for each party. While it predicts that SP will bag 39 percent of the votes, it says BJP could get 32.5 percent, BSP 14 percent and INC 10 percent, leaving 4 percent for others.
Even the Ground Report Research, that India TV partnered with, does not give clear victory to the BJP in many seats, though its overall prediction is that the BJP will win with a narrow margin. A closer look at the seat-wise predictions shows that the SP has a clear shot at victory in 105 seats, while the BJP has a clear shot of victory in only 109 seats. The SP and the BJP are locked in a close battle in 103 seats!
Mayawati’s BSP has a clear shot in four seats: Rampur Maniharan (Saharanpur, Western UP), Sandila (Hardoi, Awadh), Chail (Kaushambi, Purvanchal), and Rasar (Ballia, Purvanchal).
There are also going to be closely contested three corner fights such as:
SP-BSP-BJP in Garhmukteshwar (Hapur, Western UP), Gopamau (Hardoi, Awadh), Isauli (Sultanpur, Awadh), and Sikandra (Kanpur Dehat, Awadh).
INC-BJP-BSP in Bilgram-Mallanwan (Hardoi, Awadh),
INC-BJP-SP in Sareni (Rae Bareli, Awadh)
Nishad is also set to give the SP tough competition in Sadar (Sultanpur, Awadh) and Majahawan (Mirzapur, Purvanchal). It will also be in a three-corner contest with SP and BSP in Kalpi (Jalaun, Bundelkhand) and Alapur (Ambedkar Nagar, Awadh).
Related:
Assembly Election Exit Polls: Will media pundits be proved wrong again?