With the election results coming closer, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the parent organisation of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has doubts over the victory of BJP, as in 2014.
As per the sources from RSS, after the last phase of elections on May 19, RSS will share its feedback with the BJP, before the election results are announced. On the basis of that feedback, the right-wing organisation will decided its future strategy.
As reported in Aaj Tak, there are differences between the feedback received by the BJP and RSS after the six phases of election. While the BJP is claiming in its feedback that the party will win more than the 282 seats in 2014, the RSS estimates that the BJP will lose a large number of seats in comparison to 2014.
RSS has analyzed the 2014 and 2009 Lok Sabha election figures. According to this, BJP had won 282 seats in 2014, the difference of victory in 239 seats was lower than the votes cast for the third-placed candidate. For the first time, the BJP secured 100 votes while the party on the third position secured 40 votes and candidates on the second position secured more than 60 votes. In this scenario, it is more likely that the BSP-SP-RLD alliance, Congress or other opposition parties, in places where they have a stronghold, may take away the 239 seats resulting in a huge loss for the BJP.
Keeping this risk in mind, RSS has thought of three alternatives. Under the first option, the NDA government, under the leadership of Narendra Modi, will try to form a coalition with the regional parties. For this to happen, RSS may deploy a senior leader. In case the regional parties do not agree to the first option, then the RSS may request Modi and Amit Shah to hand over the leadership to any other party’s senior. RSS chief’s brother, Bhaiyyaji Joshi, may be given the task of convincing Modi and Shah. As the third option, the RSS will try to convince Modi and Shah, that if there is no alternative other than sitting in the Opposition, then Modi and Shah should handover their roles of the leader of opposition and the national president of the party, respectively, to any other leaders.
In this election, some of the most influential members of the RSS have been reaching out to journalists and political analysts to gauge the public mood. Senior RSS leader, M.G. Vaidya, has refrained from talking to the media before May 23, citing uncertainty over BJP’s victory. Another RSS leader from Vidarbha, said, “It is a reason for worry. But let’s hope, Uttar Pradesh will deliver again.” Sceptical about BJP’s win, the Vidarbha leader said, “A chunk of 40-45 odd seats from UP will be a game changer in this election as it was in the last election as well. But we really don’t know what’s really happening there.”
Another RSS functionary from Pune agreed that Uttar Pradesh will decide the fate of BJP, adding that it was unlikely that the Samajwadi Party’s OBC base would vote for BSP candidates, allowing the BJP to win enough seats in the state to retain power. Continuing further, he said, “But if the alliance between the Samajwadi Party and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) held firm, the BJP may not even form the government. The RSS would then build bridges with the new government.”
With the parent organisation sceptical over BJP’s victory, it would be interesting to watch how the politics in the nation change, post election results.
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