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Politics Dalit Bahujan Adivasi

UP's tribal belts show unusual voter activity

While a higher voter turnout usually indicates an anti-incumbency factor and favours the Opposition, the opposite proved true for UP’s tribal districts

Vallari Sanzgiri 12 Mar 2022

tribal b
Image Courtesy:jagran.com

While western Uttar Pradesh’s farmers resisted voting for the ruling regime of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Adivasi (indigenous tribal) regions of the state voted overwhelmingly for the party. Of the 46 seats in the 10 districts – Basti, Chandauli, Chitrakoot, Deoria, Gonda, Laliitpur, Maharajganj, Mirzapur, Siddharthnagar and Sonbhadra – the BJP bagged as many as 32 seats. However, an interesting trend seen in these regions is that the BJP lost seats in areas that reported lower voter turnout.

Generally, a voter turnout of 65 percent or more indicates a strong anti-incumbency factor, suggesting that the ruling party is likely to lose its seat in areas with a higher voter turnout percentage. However, this trend appeared to have been reversed in tribal areas where districts with lower voter turnout reported less votes for the BJP.

For example, both the seats of Lalitpur district went to the BJP party. This area is nearer to Madhya Pradesh and reported an overall voter turnout of 71.27 percentage. Yet, it voted for the BJP with a margin of at least 10 thousand votes.

Meanwhile, Basti district that reported 56.93 percent voter turnout gave only 1 out of 5 seats to BJP. Three seats of Basti Sadar, Kaptanganj and Rudhauli went to the Samajwadi Party (SP) with a victory margin between 1,779 votes to more than 24,000 votes. One seat of Mahadewa went to the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) with a victory margin of 5,495 votes. Similarly, Siddharth Nagar that had a 51.56 percent overall voter turnout gave only two of its seats to BJP. One constituency of Shohratgarh that had a 52.60 percent voter turnout voted for regional party Apna Dal (Soneylal) or AD(S) with an overwhelming margin of more than 24,000 votes. Whereas Domariyaganj and Itwa seats went to SP.

It may be noted that these two constituencies had the lowest voter turnout. Yet where Domariyaganj had a higher voter turnout (50.15 percent) than Itwa (49.37 percent), the former had a lesser margin (771 votes) than the latter (1,662 votes). The area therefore reflected the reverse trend.

However, Deoria, Gonda and Sonbhadra that reported voter turnouts within a range of 56 percent to 59 percent overwhelmingly voted for the BJP. Yet barring Obra, individual constituencies in Sonbhadra reported voter turnouts around 60 percent and above. Further, Deoria and Gonda districts are surrounded by more city areas that have favoured the BJP and other allied parties.

Again in Mirzapur, constituencies with poorer voter performance (barring Mirzapur city) like Chhanbey and Majhawan with lesser voter turnout voted for non-BJP parties. The Chhanbey seat went to the AD(S) whereas the Majhawan seat was won by another regional party Nirbal Indian Shoshit Hamara Aam Dal (NISHAD) party with a victory margin of more than 33 thousand votes.

The same pattern persists in Maharajganj (62.34 percent voter turnout) where Pharenda constituency with a 60.07 percent voter turnout elected the Congress party and Nautanwa with a 61.25 percent voter turnout voted for NISHAD. However, the Congress won by a narrow margin of 1,246 votes whereas NISHAD won by more than 15 thousand votes.

Chandauli’s Sakaldiha was another outlier that despite a relatively decent voter turnout (63.15 percent) compared to the rest of the region voted for SP with a margin of over 16 thousand votes.

Finally, Chitrakoot district with 62.88 percent voter turnout gave both its seats to non-BJP parties. The namesake constituency went to the SP with a margin of over 20 thousand votes whereas the AD(S) won the Manikpur constituency with a narrow margin of 1,048 votes.

With over 255 seats won across the state, the BJP will continue to govern UP for the next five years.

Related:

UP Assembly Elections: Serial hate offender Raghvendra Pratap Singh gets the boot in Domariyaganj!
UP Assembly Elections: Farmers dealt a mighty blow to the BJP in some constituencies
Why is Mayawati blaming Muslims and media for BSP's electoral debacle in UP?
Hate Offender Keshav Prasad Maurya emerges as one of the biggest losers in UP Assembly elections

UP's tribal belts show unusual voter activity

While a higher voter turnout usually indicates an anti-incumbency factor and favours the Opposition, the opposite proved true for UP’s tribal districts

tribal b
Image Courtesy:jagran.com

While western Uttar Pradesh’s farmers resisted voting for the ruling regime of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Adivasi (indigenous tribal) regions of the state voted overwhelmingly for the party. Of the 46 seats in the 10 districts – Basti, Chandauli, Chitrakoot, Deoria, Gonda, Laliitpur, Maharajganj, Mirzapur, Siddharthnagar and Sonbhadra – the BJP bagged as many as 32 seats. However, an interesting trend seen in these regions is that the BJP lost seats in areas that reported lower voter turnout.

Generally, a voter turnout of 65 percent or more indicates a strong anti-incumbency factor, suggesting that the ruling party is likely to lose its seat in areas with a higher voter turnout percentage. However, this trend appeared to have been reversed in tribal areas where districts with lower voter turnout reported less votes for the BJP.

For example, both the seats of Lalitpur district went to the BJP party. This area is nearer to Madhya Pradesh and reported an overall voter turnout of 71.27 percentage. Yet, it voted for the BJP with a margin of at least 10 thousand votes.

Meanwhile, Basti district that reported 56.93 percent voter turnout gave only 1 out of 5 seats to BJP. Three seats of Basti Sadar, Kaptanganj and Rudhauli went to the Samajwadi Party (SP) with a victory margin between 1,779 votes to more than 24,000 votes. One seat of Mahadewa went to the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) with a victory margin of 5,495 votes. Similarly, Siddharth Nagar that had a 51.56 percent overall voter turnout gave only two of its seats to BJP. One constituency of Shohratgarh that had a 52.60 percent voter turnout voted for regional party Apna Dal (Soneylal) or AD(S) with an overwhelming margin of more than 24,000 votes. Whereas Domariyaganj and Itwa seats went to SP.

It may be noted that these two constituencies had the lowest voter turnout. Yet where Domariyaganj had a higher voter turnout (50.15 percent) than Itwa (49.37 percent), the former had a lesser margin (771 votes) than the latter (1,662 votes). The area therefore reflected the reverse trend.

However, Deoria, Gonda and Sonbhadra that reported voter turnouts within a range of 56 percent to 59 percent overwhelmingly voted for the BJP. Yet barring Obra, individual constituencies in Sonbhadra reported voter turnouts around 60 percent and above. Further, Deoria and Gonda districts are surrounded by more city areas that have favoured the BJP and other allied parties.

Again in Mirzapur, constituencies with poorer voter performance (barring Mirzapur city) like Chhanbey and Majhawan with lesser voter turnout voted for non-BJP parties. The Chhanbey seat went to the AD(S) whereas the Majhawan seat was won by another regional party Nirbal Indian Shoshit Hamara Aam Dal (NISHAD) party with a victory margin of more than 33 thousand votes.

The same pattern persists in Maharajganj (62.34 percent voter turnout) where Pharenda constituency with a 60.07 percent voter turnout elected the Congress party and Nautanwa with a 61.25 percent voter turnout voted for NISHAD. However, the Congress won by a narrow margin of 1,246 votes whereas NISHAD won by more than 15 thousand votes.

Chandauli’s Sakaldiha was another outlier that despite a relatively decent voter turnout (63.15 percent) compared to the rest of the region voted for SP with a margin of over 16 thousand votes.

Finally, Chitrakoot district with 62.88 percent voter turnout gave both its seats to non-BJP parties. The namesake constituency went to the SP with a margin of over 20 thousand votes whereas the AD(S) won the Manikpur constituency with a narrow margin of 1,048 votes.

With over 255 seats won across the state, the BJP will continue to govern UP for the next five years.

Related:

UP Assembly Elections: Serial hate offender Raghvendra Pratap Singh gets the boot in Domariyaganj!
UP Assembly Elections: Farmers dealt a mighty blow to the BJP in some constituencies
Why is Mayawati blaming Muslims and media for BSP's electoral debacle in UP?
Hate Offender Keshav Prasad Maurya emerges as one of the biggest losers in UP Assembly elections

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