Image Courtesy: indianexpress.com

Tripura is a small state in Northeast India. Voters are a little over 28 lakhs. Voters in West Bengal are about 7.5 crore and in India about 100 crore. Despite this, there has been a lot of interest in the Tripura elections across India, including various states in East India. A few such politically significant events have taken place in Tripura before the elections.The results of Tripura elections can have an impact on national politics due to various reasons. 

For example, Tripura is the only state in India at this time, where there is a stark rivalry between two ideologies—the Left and the Right. Although the Left Front is in power in southern India's Kerala, its main opponent there is the Congress-led alliance, not the BJP. If the Left Front wins in Tripura, it will be the first time that the Left will defeat the Right in a state.It is expected to boost the morale of the entire secular coalition in India, including the Left-Socialist-Centre. 

Second, after the BJP came to power in 2014, the Congress-Left alliance did not gain anything substantial. The alliance failed in West Bengal in 2016. Those who have allied with the Congress are in danger in most cases. But according to the congress party, even though they were almost wiped out in various states, the Congress could win a large number of seats in alliance with non-Congress parties. At a state level, they still consider themselves a powerful party. In Tripura, the Congress contested in as many seats (13 out of 60) as the Left Front, its alliance partner, gave them. 

There can only be one explanation for this. If the Left-Congress alliance wins in Tripura, it will be an overall positive development for opposition politics. It is important to remember that in 2023 elections will be held in nine states in India and possibly in Jammu and Kashmir. Lok Sabha elections will be held after a year. Congressional flexibility is important at this point.

After this, if the Left Front and Congress does win in Tripura, it will be a massive change in the political environment within the state. But before that the Left-Congress alliance has to win the elections in Tripura. That task is not easy. In fact, in a word, practically impossible. After the organisational strength the BJP has shown in the elections and the amount of money it has spent, it is almost impossible for an anti-BJP alliance to win in Tripura.

Thirdly, CPI(M) state secretary Jitendra Chowdhury has emerged as the face of the opposition alliance in Tripura. He is a tribal leader. If he and his party win with votes from non-tribals, especially Bengalis and tribal communities in some seats, he will emerge as an important face in Northeast Indian politics. Political leader of 'Upper' Assam and Chief Minister of Assam, Himanta Biswa Sharma of BJP has emerged as the main political representative of Northeast India. But he does not belong to the two major societies of North-East India. These two societies are the Christian community and the tribal societies. Vishwasharma is a Hindu Brahmin. Right now, no one is discussing this as it is sensitive, but with the victory of Jitendra Chowdhury, it may emerge as the new 'narrative'. 

A fourth important point is the incredible rise of the Tipra Motha, a tribal group in Tripura. In just two years, the party has grown so much in the hill country of Tripura that many newspapers are now writing that Rajbari's son Pradyot Devabarman is the future Chief Minister of Tripura. That possibility is slim because of the 60 seats in Tripura, twenty (one-third) seats are reserved for Scheduled Tribes. The remaining seats are dominated by non-tribals. It can be assumed that they will not vote for tribal parties. Nevertheless, the rise of tribal parties is expected to encourage other tribal and tribal alliances in Northeast India.

Fifth, the Tipra Motha uprising has made it clear that India's 2019 Citizenship Act has not been accepted by tribal people. All parties in Tripura acknowledge that the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) has increased the fear of tribal communities losing their land. The Tribals and tribal communities fear that if CAA is implemented, non-tribal people will come and settle on their land. This fear has led to the uprising of the Tipra Motha. 

One more thing is important in this context. With the rise of Tipra Motha, the two main organisations, the BJP and the Left Front, have written that they will give more power to the tribals of the state in various fields if they come to power. BJP has written in its election promise, 'TTAADC (Tripura Autonomous Tribal Council) will be given greater autonomy within the framework of the proposed 125th Constitutional Amendment Bill. The council will be reconstituted to provide additional legislative, executive, administrative and financial powers.' That is, the BJP has practically accepted Tipra Motha's demand for 'greater' powers. But Radhacharan Debvarma, a tribal candidate of the Left Front, has said that the powers given to the Autonomous Tribal Council have become obsolete. If the necessary constitutional reforms are not given more power to the tribals, the problems in Tripura will increase in the future. 

In this context, the Left Front writes, "In accordance with the 125th Constitutional Amendment Bill, there will be a vigorous struggle for the tribals' land, language, economic-socio-cultural and public life of the tribals with the highest powers." 

If the Left-Congress alliance can pull off the impossible to win the elections in Tripura, it will be considered the most politically significant event in India before the election season begins. Because of these reasons, the Tripura assembly election is extremely important.

This story is turned around from Bangla, first published by Prothom Alo. Reporter: Suvojit Bagchi

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