Between the start of the campaign and today, April 26, when the second round of polls in the state has reality kicked in? On day two of the state’s polling, April 26, Himanta Biswas Sarma who was previously echoing his “leader” in New Delhi by claiming a 13/14 win for his party was heard publicly conceding that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would loose two seats. He was speaking to a local web portal, N Live. In the first round of polling to five seats in Upper Assam, Jorhat and Dibrugarh have shown a real battle with the former predicted to be won by the opposition INC.
Last Friday, April 19, Kaziranga, Sonitpur, Lakhimpur, Dibrugarh, Jorhat went to the polls while today, April 26, voters from Darrang-Udalguri, Diphu, Karimganj, Silchar and Nagaon are voting. A fortnight later on May 7, Kokrajhar, Dhubri, Barpeta and Guwahati will vote.
National and local issues have impacted voters and a ground level view of Assam half way through polling throws some interesting insights. Sabrangindia’s team on the ground has collated this report.
At the start of the 18th Lok Sabha poll campaign it was clear that the sheen and bluster of a powerful and strong Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was the chosen strategy of its most powerful player, Narendra Modi, to both overwhelm the voter and dampen its detractors.
Early in February at a media conclave that predictably caught nationwide headlines he declared that the BJP would cross the impossible 400 seats and thereafter over the next month back peddled to 370 for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) after it generated rightful concerns of the neo-fascist designs to change the basic structure of the Indian Constitution.
This far exaggerated claim was cloned in the north-eastern state of Assam with its shrill and aggressive-toned chief minister, Himanta Biswas Sarma claiming that the saffron party, that made its first ever government in Gauhati in 2016, will garner 13 of the state’s 14 parliamentary seats. A quick and contested de-limitation exercise was also carried out to facilitate demographic engineering for the majoritarian party.
Two phases down (today is the second phase of polling in the Barak valley) the BJP’s poster boy chief minister appears to have come down a peg or two. Today, on the second day of polling, April 26, Sarma is reported to be saying that “BJP may lose two seats in the second phase.”
Well known for provocative and divisive statements like “Miya vote amak nalage” (we don’t want Miya vote), Sarma –observing the surge of the electorate’s involvement in this year’s election—has since extended all out efforts to be even seen to be in the fight.
April 26 polls in state: Karimganj and Nagaon
After a close fight in the north Assam hill constituency of Jorhat, followed by another tough battle in Dibrugarh constituency (April 19), Assam’s voters have shown remarkable enthusiasm for voting in constituencies like Karimganj and Nagaon today, April 26. Until 3 p.m. on Friday, April 26, the polling percentage in Assam was a significant 60.32%
In Karimganj, senior advocate, Hafiz Rashid Ahmed Choudhury is contesting on the INC ticket and is engaged in a triangle fight between the BJP and AIUDF. His victory, hard earned for a senior Muslim representative in the state, will signal composite victory from all sections of people and society in Karimganj.
Not only is Hafiz Rashid Ahmed Choudhury a senior advocate in the Gauhati High Court but he is a prominent and progressive voice in Assam. Advocates, intellectuals, labour leaders, intellectuals have come out in support of Hafiz Rashid Ahmed Chowdhury. Assam Pradesh Congress President Bhupen Borah remarked during the enthusiastic campaign in Karimganj, “Hafiz Rashid Ahmed Choudhury is not the candidate of Karimganj, he is candidate of all of Assam.” Several organisations, including the district bar council of Kamriganj have directly extended support to this well-lnown and respected lawyer. Several advocates are actively campaigning for Hafiz Rashid Ahmed Rashid Choudhury. Advocate Sishir Dey explains, “Hafiz Rashid Choudhury also holds a position in Assam’s wider civil society. He is not just a representative of Muslims.” The Forum for Social Harmony and Asom Majori Sramik and other left democratic organisations have expressed support to Hafiz Rashid Ahmed Chowdhury.
In Nagaon, it is the INC candidate Pradyut Bardoloi who appears set to win his third term as a parliamentarian. Voters of Nagaon appeared to come out in full support for Bardoloi and his team has been running a creative campaign among all sections of the voting population, including the minority dominated areas to impress and engage votes. The minority vote will have a significant impact in this constituency.
Meanwhile, Pradyut Bardoloi has run an energetic campaign and two thirds of the voting done on April 26, as we go to press, the turn-out is notable. The APCC president Bhupen Borah, CWC member Gaurav Gogoi were part of the campaign for the Bardoloi in many places in Nagaon. Leaders from the Opposition United Forum also campaigned for Bardoloi. Large sections of the ordinary voter participated in large numbers at the campaign meetings and showed their support for the INC Candidate.
Please add Voter Turn out table
Factors that influenced the vote
As the second round of polling is underway with the third round slated for May 7, close to a fortnight away, it is clear that two emerging factors from recent public discourse have seriously affected the saffron BJP’s chances in the second phase of the election.
The first is the recent claims of BJP’s former union law minister, Kiran Rijiju on the Citizenship Amendment Act, 2019 (CAA) on the settlement of Chamka-Hajong community within Assam. Rijiju claimed that the hundred thousand (lakhs) of Chamka Hajong people residing in Arunachal Pradesh will be relocated to Assam and will also be given them citizenship under the CAA! Several persons reacted sharply against this suggestion viewed as bringing in more “refugee influx” to Assam. Countered with this recently at a press interaction, the Assam chief minister Sarma was forced to concede that he “was not informed” about these claims of relocation but citizenship will be provided to those communities.
The second major factor was the much reviled communal speech of the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi in Rajasthan on April 21. His stigmatising reference to “Muslim Ghuspaithiyas” (Muslims as infiltrators) has provided one more reason to the Muslim community to vote out the BJP with its communal politics!
Apart from these immediate issues, locally the issue of a paper mill in the Nagaon and Karimganj constituencies is agitating voters. For years, consistent demands have been raised for reviving the Nagaon paper mill and Kachar paper mill and for the justice to the employees. The contentious issue of mass evictions by this government (state) without due process of law is a strong influencer given that the state and centre is governed by the same party. The inexplicable, shocking and unlawful denial of Aadhar cards to a staggering 27,00,000 of residents in the state, the exclusion of 19,00,000 from citizenship, land seizures and deprivations are festering concerns that have alienated the people from the BJP. In the Barak Valley, the absence or deprivation of government jobs and the recent de-limitation exercise have also generated negative impact.
Apart from fighting the electoral battle within his constituency of Nagaon, Pradyut Bardoloi has been also active on legal issues. He has been in regular communication with the Election Commission of India (ECI) on several issues of contention, demanding immediate and appropriate action. In a recent instance, Bardoloi wrote a letter to ECI on the fabricated case filed against a Congress workers by the Superintendant of Police of Nagaon. Pradyut Bardoloi has also claimed on his social media handles that his party office and it’s flag has been destroyed in many places. He has also complained in this regard but the ECI is yet to even respond to any of these complaints, to date.
The second phase showed greater people’s participation than the first phase in five parliamentary constituencies of Upper Assam. However, it is observed that people were in active mode than in the 1st phase. In the polling of the first five constituencies people voted silently. But in these five constituencies people were seen active to excercise their rights both in Nagaon and Karimganj.
The BJP appeared stronger in the first phase, however in all constituencies going to the polls in the state in the second and third phases, there is likelihood of a significant losses for the BJP.
Pre-election, Jorhat in Upper Assam saw a significant gatherings to raise public awareness for the INC candidate in Jorhat, Gaurav Gogoi.
Underhand tactics?
There are some reports that the BJP is resorting to underhand tactics after facing the possibility of a sure defeat in Karimganj. Government servants were allegedly seen campaigning for the BJP in some places. In one word, it threatened to “evict persons if you do not vote BJP”. A criminal case has been filed in the court of Karimganj Chief Metropolitan Magistrate against the forest officers who ordered voters to vote for the BJP in Ratabari, Patharkandhi and Hailakandi Bilaipur areas by threatening illegal eviction.
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