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As soon as polling concluded for the last phase of the Assembly Elections in Uttar Pradesh on March 7, 2022, news media channels started releasing their Exit Poll results. But the truth often gets lost when big media networks, that rely heavily on advertising revenue and political patronage, engage in any high decibel news telecast about electoral predictions.
In a proto-fascist State, more often than not, the entire exercise of conducting an Exit Poll and revealing its results is reduced to just a charade by media houses who have proven time and again that they are happy to be the regime’s lapdogs. Their Exit Polls appear to be nothing more than a campaign to spread misinformation or gaslight viewers, just so the TRPs remain high and the unofficial bosses remain happy.
But sometimes, even news channels that have greater credibility owing to a proven track record of balanced and nuanced news coverage, also end up making genuine mistakes when it comes to predictions and calculations. But only a few have the courage and dignity to apologise. Bihar election predictions being a prime example.
With this in mind, let us take a deep dive into what different Exit Polls are saying about the outcome of the Assembly Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh. Some of the predictions are so divergent, that it makes one wonder if the polls are even referring to the same state!
While the veracity of all exit polls cannot be rejected outright, perhaps a closer look is mandated to ascertain ground realities. What can also not be ignored is the silence factor – when the respondent voter does not divulge that they have voted against the incumbent regime, out of fear of retaliation. It is noteworthy, that some political pundits have referred to it, but often to suggest that even the pro-regime voters are not divulging their vote. The reason for this though, is not clear.
Before the elections the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was in power in Goa, Manipur, Uttaranchal and Uttar Pradesh, while the Indian National Congress (INC) is the incumbent government in Punjab.
Goa (40 Assembly seats)
In Goa, the India Today – Axis My India Exit Poll predicts a hung Assembly. It gives the BJP 14-18 seats, and the INC 15-20 seats, with Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) likely to get 2-5 seats and the remaining 0-4 being lapped up by independents and others.
The ABP News – C Voter Exit Poll also makes similar predictions, saying no single party will get a majority. It gives the BJP 13-17 seats, the INC 12-16 seats and says that the Aam Admi Party (AAP) might end up getting 4-8 seats.
India TV meanwhile appears to be hedging its bets with two exit polls. While the India TV CNX exit poll says that the BJP will retain Goa with 16-22 seats, the channel’s second exit poll with Ground Zero Research predicts a comfortable majority for the Congress with 20-25 seats!
According to the Times Now-Veto Exit Poll, Congress might emerge as the single largest party with 16 seats, followed by BJP with 14. It gives AAP 4 seats and 6 to others.
Meanwhile, a lesser known Deshbandhu Exit Poll gives the BJP 7-11 seats, while it predicts that the INC could bag 21-25 emerging as the largest party, leaving others with 6-10 seats.
Interestingly the MGP, that is backed by the Trinamool Congress (TMC) is being touted by many to play kingmaker! Does this mean that Mamata Banerjee is all set to take the mantle of “Remote Control” from the Late Balasaheb Thackeray?
Manipur (60 Assembly seats)
When it comes to Manipur, almost all polls predict a victory for the BJP. The India Today – Axis My India Exit Poll says that the BJP is likely to get 33-43 seats, with the INC, National People’s Party (NPP) and the Naga People’s Front (NPF) all likely to get between 4-8 seats. Yet others could get anywhere between 0-7 seats.
India TV – Ground Zero Exit Poll too predicts a “thumping victory” for the BJP saying it will win 26-31 seats, while the INC will get 12-16 seats. The Zee – Designboxed survey also gives the BJP an edge with 32-38 seats, giving the INC 12-17 seats, while the NPP is expected to win 2-4 seats, leaving 2-5 seats for the others.
The ABP News – C Voter Exit Poll, however, gives the BJP 23-27 seats, thus suggesting it will be the single largest party, but will not have a sweeping victory. It gives 12-16 seats to the INC, 10-14 seats to the NPP and 3-7 seats to the NPF. These leaves independents and others with 2-6 seats.
Similarly, the Jan Ki Baat survey’s estimates also appear to be more conservative with the BJP is likely to win 23-28 seats, the Congress 10-14, NPP 7-8 and others 12-18. The CNX survey’s predictions are only marginally higher for the BJP giving it 26-31 seats. It predicts 12-17 for the Congress, 6-10 for the NPP and 7-12 for others.
But here too, Deshbandhu Exit Poll’s predictions differ from others. It gives the BJP 23-27 seats, and the INC 21-25 seats, leaving others with 10-14 seats. This suggests a closer contest between the BJP and INC, as opposed to how other exit polls have treated BJP’s victory here as a foregone conclusion.
Punjab (117 Assembly seats)
Almost all exit polls have predicted a clean sweep for the AAP in Punjab. The India Today – Axis My India Exit Poll says AAP could win as many as 76-90 seats, and predicted that the INC would get 19-31 seats.
The ABP News – C Voter Exit Poll gave AAP 51-61 seats, and gave the INC 22-28, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) 20-26 seats and the BJP a measly 7-13 seats.
However, according to India TV – Ground Zero Research Exit Poll, it is the INC that will emerge as the single largest party with 49-59 seats, with AAP trailing as the second best with 27-37 seats. It gave SAD+BSP 20-30 seats, the BJP 2-6 seats, leaving 1-3 seats for others.
Meanwhile, the Deshbandhu Exit Poll predicts the at INC will win 62-68 seats, leaving the BJP biting the dust with 2-8 seats. It gives the SAD 22-28 and AAP 17-23, while others could get 0-4 seats.
Uttarakhand (70 Assembly seats)
There aren’t many surprises for Uttarakhand either. The north Indian state that has seen a revolving door of Chief ministers and was the site of a deeply communal Dharm Sansad, could go either way if two of the main exit polls are to be believed.
According to India Today – Axis My India Exit Poll, BJP could get 36-46 seats, with INC trailing at a close second with 20-30 seats. While Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) could get 2-4 seats, others could end up with 2-5 seats.
According to the ABP – C Voter Exit Poll, it is the INC that will have an edge over the BJP. This poll says the INC could get as many as 32-38 seats, while BJP could get 26-32 seats. Debutante AAP could get 0-2 seats, while the BSP and others could get 3-7 seats.
Interestingly, according to India TV-Ground Zero Research Exit Poll, the INC could get a comfortable majority with 37-41 seats, restricting the BJP to 25-29. It predicts that the AAP may not even be able to open its account, while others may win 2-4 seats.
It is noteworthy that the Deshbandhu Exit Poll predicts a victory for the INC with 40-46 seats and the BJP trailing with 22-28! AAP and others could get 0-2 each.
Uttar Pradesh (403 Assembly seats)
Because of the mammoth size of the UP Assembly, the half-way mark is 202. This is where the poll predictions become interesting, with some polls predicting thumping majority and landslide victories for the BJP, and others pointing towards a slimmer margin of victory with SP making considerable gains. Yet others are predicting a victory for the Samajwadi Party (SP).
India Today – Axis My India Exit Poll predicts a “landslide victory” for the BJP, saying it could win 288-326 seats, while the SP could win 71-101 seats. It also predicts that the BSP is unlikely to win seats in the double-digits.
Meanwhile, the ABP – C Voter Exit Poll predicts that the BJP will retain power, but with a reduced majority. It gives the BJP 228-244 seats, while it predicts that SP will win 132-148 seats. It also predicts that Mayawati’s BSP will bag as many as 13-21 seats while the INC could get 4-8 seats.
India TV once again chose to go with two different predictions. According to the India TV-Ground Zero Research Exit Poll, BJP may win 180-220 seats, while Samajwadi Party may bag 168-208 seats. The BSP could get 2-12, Congress 2-8 and others could get 2-4 seats. Meanwhile, according to India TV-CNX Exit Poll, the BJP is set to retain power with 240-250 seats, a higher number of seats as compared to its own Ground Zero Research Exit Poll. The India TV-CNX Exit Poll also gives the SP 140-150 seats, and says BSP may bag 6-12 seats, Congress 2-4 and others may get 0-2 seats.
At the other end of the spectrum is the Deshbandhu UP Exit Poll, which predicts that the BJP will get 134-150 seats, while the SP will get 228-244 seats, taking them past the halfway mark! It gives the BSP 10-24 seats, and the INC 1-9 seats.
The final results will be declared after counting on March 10, 2022.
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