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As counting progressed over March 10, 2022 for Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, it certainly seemed as though farmers’ Mission UP campaign had failed to deliver the ‘vote ki chot’ to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). However, final results show that western UP farmers continue to stay loyal to the farmers body Sanyukta Kisan Morcha (SKM) that leads the farmers’ struggle in India.
The SKM launched Mission UP in a bid to replicate Bengal election results and punish the BJP for not following through on its written assurances regarding Minimum Support Price (MSP), compensation and withdrawal of FIRs. A delegation travelled to various places in the state and urged residents not to vote for the anti-farmer-dubbed party. On counting day, this effort appeared futile as the party won with an overwhelming majority. However, a closer look at the western region shows that the farmers did in fact answer the call to ‘punish the BJP’.
Farmers impact in phase 1
Among the 58 constituencies that went to polling on February 10, as many as 12 constituencies responded to Mission UP. Among the districts going to poll, Shamli, Muzaffarnagar and Baghpat farmers actively participated in the farmer’s struggle. It is no surprise that the BJP lost as many as 8 seats here. Especially in Shamli, that includes constituencies Kairana, Shamli and Thana Bhawan, not a single BJP candidate came to power. In Muzaffarnagar, the party only got Khatauli and Muzaffarnagar, losing out on two-thirds of the district. In Baghpat, the BJP did win 2 of the 3 seats. But the margin of victory in Baraut constituency was a measly 313 votes.
Similarly, the BJP lost more than half of Meerut district as 4 out of its 7 seats went to non-BJP parties. Of the four seats, one constituency voted for the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) while the rest opted for the Samajwadi Party (SP). This relative success was also hinted in the voter turnout data when these districts reported 65 percent or higher voter turnout – an indicator of the incumbency factor.
2022 Assembly election result (Phase 1) | ||
District | Non-BJP constituencies | BJP constituencies |
Shamli (3) | Kairana (SP), Shamli (RLD), Thana Bhawan (SP) |
|
Muzaffarnagar (6) | Budhana (RLD), Charthawal (SP), Meerapur (RLD), Purqazi (RLD) | Khatauli, Muzaffarnagar |
Baghpat (3) | Chhaprauli (RLD) | Baghpat, Baraut (313 margin) |
Meerut | Kithore (SP), Meerut (SP), Sardhana (SP), Siwalkhas (RLD) | Meerut Cantt, Meerut South, Hastinapur |
Farmers impact in Phase 2
On February 14, the second phase of the election began and nine districts went for polling, including Amroha, Saharanpur, Moradabad, Bareilly, Rampur, Sambhal and other farmer-influential areas. Among these, Moradabad district showed an overwhelming non-BJP sentiment with the party winning in only 1 out of 6 constituencies, that too with a close margin of 782 votes. Similarly, BJP won only 1 out of 4 seats in Sambhal. The other three seats went to Samajwadi Party (SP).
In Rampur, BJP only won 2 out of 5 seats, of which it won Bilaspur with a narrow margin of 307 votes. Out of Amroha district’s 4 seats, 2 seats went to BJP and SP each. However, the SKM campaign did not seem to have much impact on Saharanpur and Bareilly. In the former, BJP won 5 out of 7 seats of which Nakur reported a margin of only 315 votes. In Bareilly, the BJP won 7 out of 9 seats with SP getting the remaining seats.
While Bareilly had a voter turnout of only 62 percent, Saharanpur reported a 71.34 percent voter turnout.
2022 Assembly election result (Phase 2) | ||
District | Non-BJP constituencies | BJP constituencies |
Moradabad (6) | Bilari(SP), Kanth(SP), Kundarki(SP), Moradabad Rural(SP), Thakurwdara(SP) | Moradabad Nagar (782 margin) |
Sambhal (4) | Sambhal(SP), Asmoli(SP), Gunnnaur(SP) | Chandausi |
Rampur (5) | Chamraua(SP), Rampur(SP), Suar(SP) | Milak, Bilaspur (307 margin) |
Amroha (4) | Naugawan Sadat(SP), Amroha(SP) | Hasanpur, Dhanaura, |
Saharanpur (11) | Saharanpur(SP), Behat(SP) | Saharanpur Nagar, Gangoh, Rampur Maniharan, Deoband, Nakur (315 margin) |
Relative success in other areas
Aside from the western region, farmer leaders also held press conferences in Jhansi, Allahabad, Varanasi, Jaunpur, Azamgarh, Ambedkar Nagar, Gorakhpur among other areas. Again, there was relative success in these areas too. For example, BJP lost all 5 seats of Ambedkar Nagar district, as well as Azamgarh and Ghazipur constituencies. However, in all other aforementioned regions, BJP prevailed.
In a few other areas where a vote against the BJP was expected, like Lakhimpur in Kheri district and Hathras, the BJP won the election. However, it is important to remember that these regions suffered severe administrative and police repression over the years, and fear of retaliation cannot be ruled out.
Regardless of the Assembly results, farmer leaders said that their goal was to punish the BJP for deceiving farmers. In December 2021, farmers protesting at Delhi borders vacated the premises after promises that the Centre will form a committee for Minimum Support Price (MSP), compensate the families of farmers, who died during the struggle, withdraw FIRs against protesting farmers, among other demands. When the government failed to deliver on these assurances, the farmers observed a Vishwasghat Diwas on January 31 and then launched Mission UP. Leaders said they will continue the struggle for farmers’ demands.
Related:
Farmers fail to deliver “Vote ki chot” to BJP in UP
UP elections: ECI data indicates enthusiastic voter turnout in the farming community
SKM urges citizens and farmers to punish BJP with ‘vote ki chot’
Punish BJP! SKM’s resolve for Mission UP