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Explaining the Istanbul bombing: Turkey’s six foreign policy sins

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Relatives mourn a victim of the Istanbul airport attack. REUTERS/Osman Orsal


You don’t have to be an avid follower of international news to have heard about the terror attack at Istanbul’s Ataturk airport – Turkey’s biggest andEurope’s third largest hub for air travel. Most likely carried out by ISIS, the attack killed 42 people and wounded hundreds of others on June 28.

The attack overshadowed two major headline events. Both these events, ironically, had to do with Turkey attempting to change course on policies that may well have opened the door to the airport bombing.

As a scholar who focuses on foreign policy analysis and political leadership in Europe and the Middle East, I’d like to explain how all of these events can be seen in the broader context of what I call Turkey’s six foreign policy sins.

The overshadowed headlines


Russia lays to rest the pilot of the downed jet.REUTERS/Maxim Zmeyev

 

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan recently sent a letter of apology to Russian President Vladimir Putin, expressing his regrets for downing a Russian jet in late 2015 near the Turkey-Syria border.
The news surprised many. Since the onset of the Syrian civil war in 2012, Turkey emphasized its right to take any necessary measures against airspace violations. Erdogan’s apology suggests either an admission of negligent behavior – Russia has denied allegations of violation – or an indirect confession of how badly Turkey needs Russia. It may be both. A plunge in the number of Russian tourists visiting Turkey might explain Erdogan’s apology, not to mention Moscow’s embargo on Turkish agricultural products or the constraints that Turkish businesses face in Russia.

Erdogan’s apology to Putin came amid a recent deal between Israel and Turkey. The two countries have been in a rift since May 2010. That’s when the Israeli navy intercepted a humanitarian aid flotilla headed to Gaza. The shipment was sent by Turkish charity organizations. In stopping it, Israeli soldiers killed nine Turkish citizens. The parties agreed yesterday to restore diplomatic ties. Turkey accepted Israel’s blockade of Gaza and its authority to monitor Turkish aid to Gaza. In return, Israel agreed to allocate US$20 million to compensate the families involved and agreed to allow Turkish businesses to develop water and energy infrastructure in Gaza. Israel is also expected to work with Turkey to transport natural gas to Europe.

Both of these developments now pale in the face of yesterday’s horrific attacks. Those following Turkish foreign policy say the country is “paying for its sins of the past.”
What are Turkey’s past sins?

Problems close to home

Turkish foreign policy has experienced tectonic shifts over the last decade. Whereas the AKP’s initial foreign policy playbook was dubbed “soft Euro-Asianism,” emphasizing Turkey’s southern and eastern neighborhood including Russia, it later morphed into “zero problems with neighbors”. Under this new approach, Turkey would use its rich historical and cultural capital in the Middle East, the Balkans, and the Caucasus to create a zone of political and economic influence. Championed by its architect Ahmet Davutoglu, the “zero problem” policy was meant to forge new economic and security ties across the region, generating peace and stability.

Sadly, things did not go as planned. As Piotr Zalewski explains, the “zero problems with neighbors’ policy” soon turned into “zero neighbors without problems.”

Erdogan walked out on Israeli President Shimon Peres at the World Economic Forum in 2009. The fragile detente with Armenia fell apart in 2010. Friction with Azerbaijan and Israel followed. Against the backdrop of the Arab Spring revolutions, relations with Egypt deteriorated.

The last and biggest domino to fall was Turkey’s Syria policy. Although Turkish-Syrian relations were turbulent throughout the 1990s, the AKP government managed to rebuild ties. They opened their borders to each other. The Erdogans even cultivated family relations with the Assads, inviting them to join them on vacation. This ended when Assad began to brutally repress civilian revolts in Syria. Erdogan and the AKP government pledged to remove Assad from power. “His days are numbered,” Erdogan said in 2011.
 

Turkey’s six deadly sins


A protester in Istanbul kicks a poster of Assad REUTERS/Murad Sezer

 

That’s when Turkey committed what I see as its first sin. The country began to provide support to moderate Syrian rebels like the Free Syrian Army to topple Assad. It was later revealed that Turkey also supported more radical groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra and transferred weapons to others to oust Assad.

Meanwhile a new radical movement was maturing in Iraq. It was known as Al-Qaeda in Iraq, before rolling out in Syria and becoming ISIS. As ISIS got stronger, elements from the Free Syrian Army joined its ranks as well as those of others such as al-Nusra. Ahmet Davutoglu, the architect of “zero problems” foreign policy, called it “a group of angry young men” in 2014, spectacularly discounting their cause and capabilities — committing the second sin. ISIS had occupied the Turkish Consulate in Mosul, Iraq that same year, taking 49 consulate staff hostage and not releasing them until 101 days later. A Turkish daily revealed in 2015 that Turkey had transferred arms to ISIS.

Third, Turkey did not tighten border controls on its southern border until late 2015. By that time ISIS had already established itself in Syria and in southeastern Turkey. The city of Adiyaman became a well-known hub for ISIS militants. The reports suggest that at least two terror attacks that took place in Turkey last year can be traced back to this hub.

By August 2014, the international community had realized the severity of the power vacuum in Syria and how it facilitated the reincarnation of Islamic terrorism. Although the United States was initially reluctant to lead the global effort to curb ISIS, it later decided to take initiative only to find out that Turkey’s preferences were simply misaligned with the Obama administration’s. Thanks to the power vacuum, the Kurds living in the northeast provinces of Syria not only declared their autonomy, but also proved to be the most effective element in the region to fight against ISIS. They took Kobane back from ISIS, demonstrating their ability to engage in armed resistance. The United States therefore thought Kurds would make a powerful proxy to fight against ISIS, while Turkey saw them as the top threat against its own national security. The wave of sympathy that the Syrian Kurds received became a concern for Ankara, which later committed the fourth sin: engaging in airstrikes against the Kurds in northern Syria in October 2014.

The rest is history. Turkey’s aggression toward the Kurds disappointedthe United States and others in the West. While the West was counting on Turkey’s commitment to eradicate ISIS, Turkey chose to go after the Kurds and Assad instead. Eventually, Turkey’s behavior raised questions about its willingness to curb the terrorist group at all, undermining its credibility in NATO as well as in Washington. (That’s sin #5.)

By the time Russia intervened to cushion the Syrian regime, Turkey was fighting allegations of giving material support to ISIS, including by purchasing oil from the organization. When Turkey downed the Russian jet (sin #6), the country was already on the blacklist of the international community for turning a blind eye to Islamic radicalism brewing in its backyard. Indeed, ISIS committed four other heinous attacks in Istanbul, Ankara and the southeastern city of Sanliurfa in the last 12 months.

So this week Turkey proposes a clean slate to both Israel and Russia. It attempts to bounce back from the depths of its foreign policy fiascoes. Turkey’s tarnished membership in NATO will likely improve now that it has agreed to lift its veto against Israel to align with NATO’s wishes. Relations with Russia should also normalize soon.

More importantly, Turkey’s attempts to bridge the rifts with Russia and Israel signal more substantive changes in its foreign policy. Turkey might finally give tacit support to Russian activity in Syria, even if it means leaving Assad in power for now. Rebuilding ties with Israel will lead to intelligence sharing between Turkish and Israeli agencies, which should help Turkey strengthen its increasingly disappointing security apparatus.

The efforts to normalize relations with Israel and Russia are bold initiatives from the Turkish leadership, which had become much less flexible and more aggressive in its foreign policy rhetoric in recent years. Burying the hatchets with Russia and Israel might make Turkey more secure in the region, and signal to the rest of the international community that more substantive positive changes in Turkish foreign policy are yet to come. Only time will tell if they would include a more resolved Turkish response against ISIS.

Courtesy; ​theconversation.com
 

A Mournful Eid as Baghdad Suicide Bombing Death Toll Reaches 175

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Rare aerial footage shows unprecedented levels of suffering in Iraq and Syria


Mourners carry the coffin of a 22-year-old victim of the suicide bombing that ripped through Karada. Photograph Sabah Arar AFP Getty Images


More bodies have been recovered from the site of a massive Islamic State suicide bombing in central Baghdad, bringing the death toll to 175, The Guardian reported officials to have said.

The staggering figure – one of the worst bombings in 13 years of war in Iraq – has cast a pall on the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Fitr, which marks the end of the holy month. Eid is likely to be on Wednesday, July 6.

An ISIS suicide bomber struck Baghdad’s bustling commercial area of Karada late, a predominantly Shia locality, on Saturday, when many residents were spending the night out before the start of their dawn fast. Despite battlefield losses in the country, this new face of ISIS has struck terror around the globe. Police and health officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorised to release the information, warned that there are still people missing and that the death toll could rise further.

On Tuesday morning, the residents of Karada held a funeral procession for a young man at the scene of the blast. An Iraqi flag draped over her shoulder, his mother led the mourners carrying his wooden casket and pounding their chests in grief. Others were seen throwing flowers on the casket, also wrapped in the Iraqi flag.

Meawnhile in a sensational end of Ramzan disclosure, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) released a video on July 1, that shows homes, schools and hospitals crumbled to rubble shown in dramatic scenes captured by an ICRC drone camera-Chilling aerial footage of Ramadi, a once bustling city in central Iraq, has captured the extent of destruction caused by war.

In late December, Iraqi forces, backed by US air strikes, announced the recapturing of Ramadi, which had been lost to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as ISIS) group in May 2015. The US-led coalition carried out more than 600 air strikes in the area from July to December last year. 

A new six-minute clip, released by the International Red Committee of The Red Cross (ICRC) shows homes in Ramadi turned to rubble, along with flattened school, destroyed hospitals and damaged ambulances.

Click on the link for video: http://imedia8uk.http.internapcdn.net/imedia8uk/icrc/AV506N_Drone_Iraq_President_466.mp4


Ramadi, the Anbar provincial capital, was once home to half a million people [Thaier Al-Sudani/Reuters]
 
The president of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), Peter Maurer, has said in the video that levels of suffering in Syria and Iraq have reached unprecedented levels. 
“Hundreds of thousands killed; millions on the move; families torn apart,” states Maurer. “Even as Ramadan comes to an end, many, many ordinary people are living in abject fear and terrifying uncertainty. A humanitarian catastrophe is unfolding.”

Rare aerial footage gathered by ICRC shows the once prosperous Ramadi in central Iraq now in tatters – a ghost town. Explosive remnants of war are scattered across the city and most people are too afraid to return to homes. It will take months, if not years, to make the city safe again and to rebuild homes and damaged water and electric systems.

In both Syria and Iraq, an estimated 10 million are internally displaced and hundreds of thousands of people have been killed. As the holy month of Ramadan comes to an end, president Maurer, called on those people with influence over the conflict to show vision and courage and a respect for the fundamental value of human dignity.

Maurer says: “The people need leaders who believe in humanity; who protect, homes, schools and hospitals; who protect civilians and treat people they capture with respect. And we stand ready to talk to anyone – or to act as an intermediary so that more help, more assistance, can be delivered. And more people protected from violence.”

The Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies have been providing aid to people on all sides of the conflicts. The ICRC has helped provide clean drinking water and improved sanitation for more than 6 million Syrians. In Iraq, food, drinking water and medical assistance has been delivered to more than a million people.