


Earlier in the day, yesterday, December 10, the Institute of Chartered Accountant of India (ICAI) had issued a circular refraining its members to not share or mention any negative personal views by way of an article or interview on any platform regarding demonetisation. Anil Galgali, an RTI activist, who tweeted on the ethics behind the advisory's aim to stop criticism of note ban was also blocked by the ICAI.
As soon as the ICAI's circular was out, Anil Galgali shared the same on his twitter page shaming the move. Galgali was surprised with this kind of authoritative behaviour of the institute. Also, when he shared the circular with his followers, the post went viral and reached the ICAI, who in turn immediately blocked Galgali. A lot of Chartered Accountants also criticised the circular after Galgali's tweet.
Owing to displeasure and criticism from all the sections of the society on the social media platform, the ICAI released it's mistake and immediately removed the circular from its website. Anil Galgali says, "Demonetisation is a very difficult phase of each and everyone. First person to be consulted during such testing times are your family's Chartered Accountant. But before becoming or recognising as Chartered Accountant, the person is a resident of this country and by all means has the right to express himself/ herself.
But the ICAI has tried to take away this right from its members.
"They don't want to listen to any criticism. Probably, some politicians may have objected, as they are advised by their CAs on how to manage stashed illegal funds. Instead of heeding to fair criticism, ICAI resorts to crushing it," an indignant Galgali react. Anil Galgali wondered whether the so-called advisory would still be effective after its erasure from the ICAI site.
The Economic Times reports, that with just 19,143 ATMs, only double of those in Delhi but catering to almost 20 times more population than the national capital, Uttar Pradesh seems worst affected by the demonetisation crisis. Its political fallout now threatens to derail BJP’s chances in the big battle of 2017 if the situation persists into the new year. In prime minister Modi’s own constituency, cash distress continues causing rising anger among the populace.
Dates of the state polls remain uncertain as of now. Last week, the state government announced dates for the Std. X and XII examinations from February 10-March 15, 2017, a decision for which the state education secretary was reportedly summoned by the Chief Election Commissioner (CEC), New Delhi on Saturday (December 10). It is uncertain now what the outcome of the meeting has been. Technically, since the first session of the newly elected Akhilesh Yadav government in 2012 had only met in the first week of May 2012, there is time till mid April 2017 for the polls, before the five year statutory time expires.
The ET reports that it spoke to senior leaders of all major parties, top bureaucrats and police officers — many spoke on the condition of anonymity — to piece together the big picture where initial euphoria is slowly metamorphising into anger and frustration as the queues are not shortening. “Lucknow ka aadmi mauj aur aaram mein rehta hai…usse line mein khada hona pasand nahi hai. Woh ghar baith jayega par ab BJP ko vote nahi dalega, if this situation persists for two more weeks or so. (People in Lucknow are somewhat laidback and live a slow life. They don’t like to stand in queues. They will sit at home but not go and vote for BJP),” a senior political leader told ET. He said there were intelligence reports with the government of RSS workers also standing in queues and motivating people to not be restive or criticise the move – but the patience seems to be running out.
“Mohbhang ho raha hai (the euphoria is now fizzling out),” he said. The banking penetration is poor, compounding the problems. UP has just 18,000-odd bank branches and 19,143 ATMs to cater to over 20 cr people. Delhi with 1.2 cr people has 9,070 ATMs while Maharashtra with 11 cr population has nearly 25,000 ATMs.
Thinning crowds at the BJP's parivartan yatras have also been coming in. Fearing they may not get sizeable crowd for the mega rally to be addressed by Narendra Modi at Lucknow on December 24, Bharatiya Janata Party is likely to call it off. The mega rally was planned to mark the culmination of four parivartan yatras that began in the first week of November.
Sabrangindia has been reporting on the huge rural distress due to the ill-planned de-monetization decision of the Modi government. On November 22, the tragic incident of the death of a 65-year-old man was trampled to death outside a bank while standing in a queue to withdraw cash is sympomatic.Ramnath Kushwaha, a resident of Gulriha village, was caught in a stampede outside the State Bank of India branch on Monday. He was trampled by a crowd who had gathered to withdraw cash, SP Mohd Imran said. He had gone to withdraw money to make payments to a hospital where his pregnant daughter-in-law has been admitted, the officer said.
“..The real problem is banks have no cash. We have reports of queues of 400 people or more in towns and villages and the sudden announcement of cash finishing leading to people becoming aggressive. The problem is more acute in Eastern UP,” says UP Additional DG (Law & Order) Daljit Singh Chawdhary, the nodal officer to handle demonetisation law and order issues. Each day, he gets SOS calls from 2-3 bank bosses. “Nearly 40,000 policemen – that is 25% of the state police strength – are posted at banks. “But for the police, many banks would have been vandalised by now. UP DGP Javeed Ahmad has told policemen to exercise restraint and not do a lathicharge,” a state bureaucrat said.
On Sunday, December 11, prime minister Narendram Modi on Sunday told a BJP Parivartan Rally in Uttar Pradesh's Bahraich that 'gunda raj' will end in the state if his party is voted to power.The PM wasn't actually at the rally. His helicopter couldn't land in Bahraich due to low visibility caused by foggy weather.
प्रधानमंत्री नरेंद्र मोदी नोटबंदी के अगले दिन जापान रवाना हो गए। यहां वे शादियों वाले परिवारों पर तंज कसते नजर आए। इसके बाद वे भारत लौटकर गोवा पहुंचे। यहां प्रधानमंत्री भावुक नजर आए और कहा कि वे मुझे मार डालेंगे। साथ ही उन्होंने 50 दिन मांग लिए। प्रधानमंत्री को अपने वादे पर अडिग मानकर लोग शांतिपूर्वक लाइन में लगे हैं। हालांकि करीब 90 लोग नोटबंदी की भेंट भी चढ़ चुके हैं लेकिन उन्हें उम्मीद है कि 50 दिन बाद वाकई कोई चमत्कार नजर आने वाला है।
लोगों की उम्मीदों से उलट प्रधानमंत्री ने शनिवार को यह साफ कर दिया कि नोटबंदी से पैदा हुए हालात 50 दिन बाद भी एकदम से नहीं बल्कि धीरे-धीरे सामान्य होंगे। यानि 50 दिन वाली बात उन्होंने हवा-हवाई कही थी। नोटबंदी के बाद दिए गए अपने सभी भाषणों में प्रधानमंत्री यह कहते रहे हैं कि 50 दिन के बाद (30 दिसंबर) लोगों की मुश्किलें खत्म हो जाएंगी, पर अब वह भी मान रहे हैं कि हालात धीरे-धीरे नॉर्मल होंगे।
Is there a more doubtful, even sinister move behind the war on cash?- Steal from hard earned savings and wealth of the vast majority to bankroll bad and unsustainable debt? Even worse, freeze access to a citizen’s own money and earnings as was done in Greece during the crisis of 2015?
“This war has been in full swing in Europe and the U.S. for a long time. Governments plan to use negative interest rates, confiscatory taxes and other techniques to rob savers of their wealth. In order to do this, they have to force savings into digital accounts at large government-controlled banks. As long as savers can hold cash, they can avoid many of these confiscation techniques. Therefore, governments must eliminate cash.” Jim Rickards- author of The Road to Ruin.
The demonetization blitzkrieg of the NDA government was served to the unsuspecting Indian public as a moral crusade to destroy the twin evils of black money and counterfeit notes. But as the days went by the stated objects of the demonetization fell apart and the government did a series of embarrassing flip flops to put forth the view that the object was to usher in a cashless society where the digitally baptized citizens would swipe their plastic cards and waft to and fro in digital wallets with consummate ease.
If the overt objectives of the demonetization, i.e eradication of black money and counterfeit notes were indeed laughable, then other concerns about its covert objectives gave rise to legitimate concerns. What then is the hidden agenda of the demonetization exercise?
The answer lies in the crisis plaguing the Indian Public sector banks. Beset by bad debts caused by profligate borrowing by the corporate elites the public sector banks are saddled with non-performing assets (NPAs). Conservative estimates place the NPA at Rs 6 trillion.
Moreover, ‘gross non-performing assets (NPAs) rose to 9.5 per cent of total advances in 2015-16, up from five per cent the year before.’ The bad news keeps piling up ‘But as most banks didn’t adequately provide for these loans, it has put pressure on their solvency position. If PSBs were to currently provide for all their bad loans, it would erode 66 per cent of their total net worth..’ The PSU banks have reported a loss of Rs 17,672 crore in 2015-16, down from a profit of Rs 36,350 crore in 2014-15.’ This has a ripple effect ‘their stock prices have tanked, eroding crores of rupees in market capitalisation. The Nifty PSU Bank Index declined from a high of 4,419.25 in January 2015 to 2,913 on July 20, 2016.’
Another nail in bank sector’s coffin appears to be severe erosion in the bank deposit base. As a business report states ‘Indian banks are staring at a deposit erosion of Rs 1.5-2 lakh crore between September and November as foreign currency non-resident deposits (FCNR) mobilized in 2013 mature around that time. This could result in an acute liquidity shortage and a possible de-growth of balance sheets.’ The savings from the household sector fell to 9.8% of GDP reaching the lowest level in 25 years.
Thus deposits being mobilized from the household sector of the economy appear grim. The problem of liquidity crunch and the accumulating corporate bad loans is made worse in a fractional reserve banking system where the mountain of credit rests on a sliver of liquidity base. In the event of financial panic involving banks, investors would take their deposit from banks in physical cash and bolt for safety.
There are basically two approaches to the problem. First is to make money readily available to satisfy the demand and hoping thereby to calm the panic and stop the bank run. This is a classic central bank function as the lender of last resort. The second approach is to say no and freeze the system. This approach is also called “Ice Nine”.
The term “Ice Nine” is from the novel “Cat’s Cradle” written by Kurt Vonnegut in 1963. This substance was discovered by a character in the book, a Dr. Felix Hoenikker, which could freeze another molecule of water when it came into contact with it. “Ice Nine” had the awesome capacity to freeze rivers, lakes and oceans.
In a financial panic, a “Ice Nine” approach means taking draconian measures to prevent or severely restrict withdrawal of physical cash from bank accounts, shutting down ATM’s and ordering asset managers not to sell securities. In other words this means financial repression or lockdown.
The government’s “Ice Nine” has grave implications for the household sector savings in bank accounts. This includes senior citizens having deposits in the banks who are struggling against medical and other costs and who are dependent on interest from fixed deposits. Will their sequestered cash lying frozen in bank accounts be used to wipe out the bad bank debts of the corporate elites? Will the sequestered bank deposits suffer negative rate of interest from which there is no escape?
“Ice Nine” was put to deadly effect in the Cyprus banking crisis in 2012 and the Greek sovereign crisis in 2015. The financial repression was brutally enforced: Banks were shut down and the ATM machines were taken out. The banks blocked the depositors from withdrawing physical cash from their accounts. A mad scramble for cash started. In Cyprus the Laiki Bank was shut down and the bank of Cyprus was restructured by the government. Deposits above the insured amount of e 100,000 was transferred to a bad bank where the chance of recovering any sum was next to impossible. At the bank of Cyprus, the meat cleaver was applied with deadly effect: around 47.5% of the uninsured deposits over e 100000 were used to recapitalize the bank. Financial commentators whose humour was on the dark side called it the Cyprus haircut. Some called it a bail-in. Others called it simply an officially sanctioned theft.
The Cyprus haircut got policy status in the newly formed global organization by G20 called the Financial Stability Board (FSB). In an arcane technical report FSB made it clear that in the event of bank losses the depositors should absorb the losses. The bank deposits could be used to write down and convert into equity all or parts of the unsecured deposit lying with the bank.
The Cyprus haircut was applied with deadly effect in the Greek crisis during 2015. The modus operandi was the same: the banks were shut down and the ATM machines stopped dispensing cash. Credit cards were declined by merchants and the people resorted to quasi barter system to keep trade and commerce going. Depositors realized that their bank deposit was not theirs and could be frozen any time. In other words they could get a Cyprus haircut.
The demonetization shock therapy administered by the corporate friendly neo-liberal government of Modi could in all probability be another bail-in for the Public sector banks plundered by the corporate elites. Ominously the key ingredient “Ice Nine” (freezing or restricting cash withdrawals) seems to be essential part of the package.
The government’s “Ice Nine” has grave implications for the household sector savings in bank accounts. This includes senior citizens having deposits in the banks who are struggling against medical and other costs and who are dependent on interest from fixed deposits. Will their sequestered cash lying frozen in bank accounts be used to wipe out the bad bank debts of the corporate elites? Will the sequestered bank deposits suffer negative rate of interest from which there is no escape?
At risk is also the informal sector of day workers, small businesses and farmers who would be locked in digital wallets and pummeled by transaction costs, bank fees and service taxes. Gone are the days when one could withdraw cash freely and transact without burdensome charges or fees. It is standard operating procedure for governments wedded to neo-liberal policies to lessen corporate tax and income tax in favour of regressive indirect taxes, levies, and charges falling on the wretched of the earth. For neo-liberal ideologues there is no greater pleasure than in extracting wealth from the bottom of the pyramid.
With “Ice Nine” in place for freezing cash in bank accounts or digital wallets, it is unlikely that the meek shall inherit a digital Eldorado. In a deadly run up to a cashless society it is more probable that they shall get a surgical haircut- Cyprus style.
(The author is a lawyer from Bangalore,India.He writes for the Economic and Political Weekly and has contributed to the Monthly Review and Global Research.He's an avid reader of websites with alternative views.His writings are available at sapientpen.blogspot.in; twitter handle: @sapientpen)
James Rickards – The Death of Money – 04-30-15
Also Read:
1. Can The Move Towards a Cashless Society Lead to Alternative Currencies?
The state-wide protests in Jharkand last Friday, December 3 and 4 had Section 144 being imposed all over the state and police posses outside every district college and university. The ‘national media lense’ was absent even as Jharkand, one of India’s youngest states was and is on the boil after the BJP-dominated State Assembly illegally passed amendments to the Chotanagpur Tenancy Act and the Santhal ParganaTenency Act, with a sinister aim to snatch away the rights of India’s Adivasis; even as State Repression increases, the Indigenous People’s have resolutely and peacefully fought back to reclaim what is theirs
Historic Injustice: The Supreme Court of India in a landmark judgment (Criminal Appeal No: 11 of 2011) has observed:
“The injustice done to the tribal people of India is a shameful chapter in our country's history. The tribals were called `rakshas' (demons), `asuras', and what not. They were slaughtered in large numbers, and the survivors and their descendants were degraded, humiliated, and all kinds of atrocities inflicted on them for centuries. They were deprived of their lands, and pushed into forests and hills where they eke out a miserable existence of poverty, illiteracy, disease, etc. And now efforts are being made by some people to deprive them even of their forest and hill land where they are living, and the forest produce on which they survive.” [section 36].
Law vs People: Realising this injustice, the British rulers introduced some legislation with a view to protect the tribal people and their rights over natural resources. Chotanagpur Tenancy Act, 1908 (CNT) and SantalPargana Tenancy Act, 1949 (SPT). These laws were meant to prevent land-alienation of the indigenous Adivasi community. However, over the years some loopholes were introduced in the law, especially in the CNT Act through which indigenous land can now be taken for public sector undertakings such as mines and industries. Under this guise or pretext, thousands of acres of land has been forcibly appropriated from Jharkand’sAdivasis using the outdated Land Acquisition Act of 1894 enacted by the British. The compensation fixed by petty bureaucrats has been meagre without any rehabilitation of the displaced. A minimal estimate is that about 24 lakh acres of land was thus alienated and 19 lakh people have been, over the decades, displaced. A cruel, further push in this policy of unfair seizure of land was brought in with the neo-liberalisation policies adopted from the early 1990s, that has paved the way for private industrialists to invest in mining and industries.
MoUs on paper only: Even as the government went on signing Memorandum of Understandings (MoUs) with prospective industrialists, people’s resistance movements began to emerge.Consequently very few industrialists could set up their industries leading to an industrial deadlock and most of them had to go back empty handed.Big projects such as Neterhat Field Firing Range, Koel-Karo River-Water Project, Arcelor-Mittal project where the people’s collective resolve not to give their land are some of the success stories of people’s resistance.
It was in such a predicament that UPA government enacted the ‘Land Acquisition Act, 2013’ by which better compensation and rehabilitation was offered. Some significant features of this 2013 law are: (1) compensation amount enhanced to four times the market rate, (2) obtaining environment clearance for the industry/mine, (3) obligatory public hearings wherein the consent of 80% for private industries and 70% for public sector industries, (4) social audit by independent expert group to assess the economic, social, cultural impact on the communities because of the industry/mine functioning in their midst. Only on the satisfactory fulfillment of the above conditions, industries/mines would be given the go-ahead signal.
Mass protests overwhelm 2013 Ordinanceof the NDA II government to scrap the salient features of the 2013 Land Acquisition Act. This was a desperate attempt to salvage the assurances the government had made to industrialists that they would face no problems in setting up industries. This arrogant action of the government aroused intellectuals, farmers associations, working class, Dalit and Adivasi communities to take to the street at local, regional, national levels and denounce the duplicity of the NDA govt. This determined protest by the masses finally brought the government to its knees and forced it to withdraw the much-criticisedOrdinance.
Shifting the burden of dismantling the 2013 Land Acquisition Act to State Governments—especially those ruled by the BharatiyaJanata Party (BJP), the NDA government asked the States to enact their own laws / ordinances / amendments so that corporate entities can easily acquire land and start their industries and mines. Now that Jharkhand Government is also a BJP government and has been faithfully carrying out the dictates of it’s national one, the NDA II government worked out the sinister plan of passing an Ordinance which sought to tamper with both laws, the CNT & SPT Acts.
This Ordinance was passed by the JharkandState Cabinet just a few days before the commencement of the State Assembly on July 28, 2016. Such an important and crucial t should rather have been placed in the Assembly for appropriate discussions and deliberation. But the government knew it would be difficult to get such changes through since the opposition would oppose it vehemently. Extremely unfortunately, the State Governor signed this irregularly brought Ordinance and forwarded it to the President of India for his approval after which it would become a law. Fortunately, the President had the discretionary sense to forward it to the Central Government and the National Commission for Scheduled Tribes for their comments. While the central government has been silent on the matter, the ST Commission responded saying it would be highly unconstitutional to pass such an Ordinance. Nearly five months have passed and the President has not given his approval. This Constitutional brakes have placed both the NDA II government at the centre and the state government in Jharkhand in an awkward situation where their designs against the indigenous people, Adivasis of the state, have not materialised.
Ordinance becomes Amendment: The Jharkhand Government then proposed Amendments to CNT & SPT Acts, offering these as ‘good’ and ‘necessary’ for the larger good of ‘development’. This ploy too, has, however not worked and a widespread mobilisation among Adivasi groups and indigenous peoples has been roundly protesting these moves.
Where the attendance register becomes ‘consent’ document: Sensing the predicament of the government, indigenous parties, organisations and movements demanded that the Vth Schedule of the Constitution be observed in letter and spirit and that government’s proposed amendments should first get the approval of Tribes Advisory Council (TAC) before they are presented on the floor of the State Assembly. The state government, keen to appear to be abiding by constitutional requirements convened a formal meeting of the TAC in September 2016 but this turned out to be mere tokenism and something of a farce: the Chief Minister who is not even a tribal made himself the ‘chairman’and conducted the meet. The attendance register of this farce of a meeting was put forward as the ‘consent’ document and the general public was informed through the ever-obliging, and largely uncritical, media that the resolution of the government had been passed by the TAC!
A three-minute miracle! Opposition to the proposed Amendments to CNT & SPT Acts swelled. Protests became vociferous with both indigenous mass movements and opposition political parties, participating. Rallies, public meetings against the amendments became the order of the day. Opposition parties assured the people that they would not allow the bill to be passed in the State Assembly.Both the ruling party and the opposition parties were geared up for the battle and an obvious tension prevailed all over the state. When the State Assembly gathered, the opposition parties members were up on their feet and demanded that the bill be discussed first before any attempt was made to pass it. An uproar prevailed but then, then lo and behold it was unilaterally announced that the Bill has been passed by a voice vote! All this took place in a matter of three minutes!
It is NOT agricultural land for non-agricultural purpose… BUT snatching indigenous land for out-sider industrialists. What are the objectionable elements in the proposed amendments? (1) Article 49 allowed transfer of indigenous land only to industry and mining. The proposed amendment will open the door to creating infrastructure, rail lines, colleges, hospitals, transmission lines etc. etc. in fact for any and every thing. (2) Article 21 restricted the use of agricultural land only for agricultural purpose. In other words, agricultural land cannot be changed to non-agricultural business purposes. The proposed amendment will allow any and every non-agricultural use.
It is important to keep in mind that whatever agricultural land is still in possession of the Adivasi and indigenous community, has been possible because of Article 21 of CNT and Article 13 of SPT Act. If the amendments actually become “law”, no land will be left with indigenous communities. A frightening reality indeed!
This plot of the capitalist ruling class against the India’s Adivasis and Indigenous Peoples must be resisted at all costs. If we fail in this struggle, Indigenous Communities will be wiped out in the map of central India.
An appeal to the Media too: The glare and gaze must reach where repression is at its height. Jharkand is one such today.
Human Rights Day, 2016
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नई दिल्ली। जब भी किसी सरकारी नौकरी के लिए विज्ञापन दिया जाता है तो लाखों की संख्या में उसके लिए उम्मीदवारों के फॉर्म आते है। लेकिन उत्तर प्रदेश के इलाहाबाद नगरपालिका में सफाई कर्मचारी की नौकरी निकली तो एक लाख 10 हजार लोगों ने इसके लिए आवेदन भेजा।
बता दें कि सफाई कर्मचारी बनने की चाहत रखने वालों में बड़ी संख्या ऐसे लोग भी हैं जिनके पास एमबीए, बीटेक सहित दूसरी कई परास्नातक डिग्रियां हैं। ऐसा भी नहीं है कि ये कोई पक्की नौकरी है और अभ्यर्थी सरकारी नौकरी के लालच में इसे हासिल करना चाहते हैं। नगरपालिका के विज्ञापन के अनुसार चयनित उम्मीदवारों को ठेके पर रखा जाएगा। साथ ही सभी इच्छुक अभ्यर्थियों को नियुक्ति से पहले के प्रायोगिक परीक्षा देनी होगी। इसके साथ ही उम्मीदवारी की भारी तादाद के चलते अंतिम नियुक्ति होने में करीब दो साल लग सकता है।
टाइम्स ऑफ इंडिया की रिपोर्ट के अनुसार इलाहाबाद नगरपालिका में करीब 119 पद रिक्त हैं। वहीं प्रदेश के बाकी जिलों में भी करीब 100-100 सफाई कर्मचारियों के पद रिक्त हैं। इस पद के लिए आवदेन करने के लिए तय की गई न्यूनतम योग्यता के अनुसार हिंदी पढ़-लिख सकने वाले युवक इसके लिए आवदेन कर सकते हैं। ये अलग बात है कि इस पद के लिए इतने पढ़े लिखे लोगों ने आवेदन किया है जो संभवतः देश की सभी प्रतिष्ठित नौकिरियों के लिए आवेदन करने की पात्रता रखते हैं।
वहीं रिपोर्ट के अनुसार इलाहाबाद नगरपालिका ने हर रोज 250 प्रत्याशियों को प्रायोगिक परीक्षा के लिए बुला रहा है। इलाहाबाद नगरपालिका के अतिरिक्त म्यूनिसिपल कमिश्नर ओपी श्रीवास्तव ने टीओआई को बताया कि बड़ी संख्या में उच्च-शिक्षित युवकों ने इस पद के लिए आवेदन किया है। अगर छुट्टियों को ध्यान में रखा जाए तो इतनी संख्या में हर रोज प्रायोगिक परीक्षा लेने में नगरपालिका को करीब दो साल लग जाएंगे।
आपको बता दें कि केंद्रीय श्रम ब्यूरो की रिपोर्ट के अनुसार देश की बेरोजगारी दर 2015-16 में पांच फीसद पर पहुंच गई है। ये दर पिछले पांच साल का सर्वोच्च स्तर है। महिलाओं के मामले में बेरोजगारी दर उल्लेखनीय रूप से 8.7 फीसद के उच्च स्तर पर, जबकि पुरुषों के संदर्भ में यह 4.3 फीसद रही। आठ नवंबर को प्रधानमंत्री नरेंद्र मोदी द्वारा नोटबंदी की घोषणा से भी देश के असंगठित क्षेत्र के रोजगार पर मार पडऩे की आशंकाएं जताई जा रही हैं।
Courtesy: National Dastak
तमिलनाडु की मुख्यमंत्री जयललिता जयराम नहीं रहीं। उनके बाद यह सवाल तैर रहा है कि उनके बाद दक्षिण के इस अहम राज्य का नेतृत्व कौन करेगा। सवाल उठ रहे हैं कि अम्मा के बाद क्या? अम्मा के बाद कौन। हालांकि इस सवाल का आसान जवाब गुमराह करने वाला होगा। क्योंकि इससे सत्ता के इस खेल में असली ताकतें नहीं दिखेंगी और वे खिलाड़ी भी छिपे रहेंगे, जो इसे खेल रहे हैं।
इस वक्त निश्चित तौर पर ओ पन्नीरसेलवम राज्य का नेतृत्व करते दिख रहे हैं। पीएम मोदी की स्क्रिप्ट के मुताबिक ही उन्हें राज्य के सीएम पद की कुर्सी पर बिठाया गया है। दक्षिण में मोदी के दूत एम. वैंकेया नायडू अन्नाद्रमुक के प्रमुख नेताओं और अधिकारियों से यह सुनिश्चित करा चुके हैं, इस मामले में वह नई दिल्ली में तैयार स्क्रिप्ट के मुताबिक ही चलेंगे।
पन्नीरसेलवम दो बार अंतरिम सीएम रह चुके हैं। वह राज्य की कमान संभालने वाले एक कमजोर सीएम के तौर पर देखे जा रहे हैं। लेकिन जयललिता के रहते कमजोर दिखने वाले पन्नीरसेलवम क्या आने वाले दिनों भी ऐसे ही रहेंगे। खास कर जब शशिकला नटराजन अन्नाद्रमुक का नेतृत्व कर रही हों।
जयललिता के अंतिम संस्कार के दौरान राजाजी पार्क में उनके शव के पास खड़े होकर रो रहे पन्नीरसेलवम और शशिकला को ढांढस बंधाते पीएम का बार-बार यह कहना कि कोई भी दिक्कत हो, उन्हें तुरंत बताएं। मजबूत बनें। केंद्र हर मदद को तैयार है। यह सारा दृश्य एक चीज साफ कर देता है। मुख्यमंत्री पन्नीरसेलवम तभी तक सुरक्षित हैं जब तक वे मोदी के इशारे पर चलेंगे।
पन्नीरसेलवम को अब यह सुनिश्चित करना होगा कि केंद्र सरकार की सरपरस्ती में मजबूत बने रहें और अन्नाद्रमुक के विधायकों और 50 सांसदों को एकजुट रखने की हरचंद कोशिश करें। बहुत कम लोग यह भांप पाएंगे कि पन्नीरसेलवम को मजबूत बनने की मोदी की सलाह के पीछे क्या है। मोदी के इस संदेश का मतलब यह है कि पन्नीरसेलवम अन्नाद्रमुक के अंदर वर्चस्व बनाए रखने के साथ ही विरोधी द्रमुक को भी काबू में रखें।
यह ऐसा ऑपरेशन है जिसकी पूरी स्क्रिप्ट केंद्र ने लिखी है। यह सब राजनीतिक स्थिरता के हित में बताया जा रहा है। उस राज्य में जहां एक साल पहले ही जयललिता भारी बहुमत से सत्ता में आई थीं। इस वक्त न तो बीजेपी, अन्नाद्रमुक और न ही द्रमुक ही चुनाव चाहते हैं। हालांकि मौजूदा समय में अन्नाद्रमुक के अंदर के समीकरणों को साधने की सबसे बेहतर कदम साबित होगा।
अन्नाद्रमुक के अंदर समीकरण मोदी और केंद्र के लिए सबसे अधिक परेशान करने वाले हैं क्योंकि राज्य में आरएसएस और जयललिता के बीच कभी दोस्ती नहीं रही। मोदी से दोस्ताना संबंध रहने के बावजूद 2011 से ही वह राज्य में आरएसएस के प्रभाव जमाने के खिलाफ रहीं। राज्य में उन्होंने बीजेपी के नेताओं से दूरी बनाए रखी और पार्टी के स्थानीय नेताओं को नजरअंदाज किया। इसलिए मोदी की पन्नीरसेलवम को अपने दायरे में रखने की कोशिश बीजेपी और अन्नाद्रमुक के रिश्तों की वजह से नहीं है। दोनों के बीच लेनदेन का संबंध है और भाजपा को पार्लियामेंट में अन्नाद्रमुक के समर्थन की जरूरत है। यही वजह है कि अन्नाद्रमुक को खुश रखने के लिए थंबीदुरई को डिप्टी स्पीकर बनाया गया।
बीजेपी ने न तो जयललिता और न ही उनके किसी मंत्री को परेशान किया। उल्टे जब उन पर भ्रष्टाचार के आरोप लगे और मुकदमा चला तो मोदी सरकार के कानून और वित्त मंत्री ने आगे बढ़ कर जयललिता का समर्थन किया।
जयललिता के जाने के बाद शशिकला के पास कमान हैं। इस खेल के ज्यादातर दांव उन्हीं के पास हैं। उन्हें उन दांवों के बारे में भी पता है जो उनकी मित्र जयलिलता खेलती थीं। अन्नाद्रमुक के पास विशाल संसाधन हैं और संपत्ति है। यह कितनी बड़ी है इसका अनुमान अभी नहीं लगाया गया है। शशिकला और उनकी निकट सहयोगियों को ही पता होगा कि यह संपत्ति कहां-कहां और कितनी है। यही वजह है अन्नाद्रमुक में अभी शशिकला सर्वोपरि हैं।
जयललिता की सबसे नजदीकी शशिकला को ही उनकी हर चीज के बारे में पता है। अन्नाद्रमुक में थेवर जाति का वर्चस्व देखते हुए शशिकला तमिलनाडु का राजनीति में अहम बनी रहेंगी। पन्नीरसेलवम के पीछे वही खड़ी हैं। और जब तक वह खुद को मजबूत नहीं बना लेते बीजेपी को शशिकला के साथ सावधानी के साथ डील करनी होगी।
इस वक्त शशिकला अन्नाद्रमुक की महासचिव हैं और पार्टी में पर्दे के पीछे की राजनीति में ही उन्हीं का वर्चस्व है। उन्हें गोंडर जाति को भी साधना है, जिससे थंबीदुरई और राज्य के मंत्री ई के पलनीस्वामी आते हैं। शशिकला को यह तय करना है कि क्या यह समय उन्हें पार्टी के अंदर के थेवर समुदाय को गोंडर गुट के साथ समझौते का है। क्योंकि उन्हें पता है कि थंबीदुरई मोदी के पार्ट बी का हिस्सा हो सकते हैं। शशिकला के खिलाफ आय से अधिक संपत्ति का जो मुकदमा चल रहा है, वह भी शशिकला को आक्रामक रवैया अपनाने से रोकेगा।
मोदी चाहेंगे कि फिलहाल अन्नाद्रमुक एकजुट रहे। अगले साल राष्ट्रपति चुनाव होने हैं और उनके लिए अन्नाद्रमुक के वोट बहुमूल्य होंगे। इसलिए केंद्र अऩ्नाद्रमुक के अंदर के वर्चस्व वाले गुटों के बीच संतुलन को तवज्जो देगा।
द्रमुक की वजह से भी अन्नाद्रमुक को एकजुट और मजबूत बने रहना होगा। एमजीआर और जयललिता जैसी ताकतवर शख्सियतों के जाने के बाद द्रमुक के लिए बहुत बड़ा अवसर होगा। द्रविड़ जाति के कैडर बेस्ड पार्टी के तौर पर वह फिर आक्रामक रुख अपनाएगी। अन्नाद्रमुक में मजबूत नेताओं की अनुपस्थिति में द्रमुक को आगे फायदा हो सकता है लेकिन इस वक्त अन्नाद्रमुक को मजबूत और एकजुट बने रहना होगा।
बहरहाल, बीजेपी की फौरी जरूरत है कि अन्नाद्रमुक पर नियंत्रण बनाए रखे। आगे थोड़े समय और आगे चल कर मध्यावधि में पार्टी इसी रणनीति पर चलेगी। जब अन्नाद्रमुक और अन्य द्रविड़ दलों, भाजपा और कांग्रेस में राजनीतिक समीकरणों में उथल-पुथल मचेगी तभी अगला दांव चला जाएगा।
फरवरी , 2017 में तमिलनाडु से कांग्रेस को बाहर हुए 50 साल हो जाएंगे। 2017 में द्रविड़ पार्टियों का रुख कांग्रेस और बीजेपी के लिए राज्य की राजनीति में अहम मोड़ साबित हो सकता है।
फिलहाल तमिलनाडु में अम्मा के जाने के बाद यह ‘चिनम्मा’ शशिकला पर निर्भर है कि वह मोदी सरकार और उसकी परोक्ष रणनीति का कैसे सामना करती हैं।
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