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Ignored Warnings

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Reports compiled by the Earthquake Affected Relief and Rehabilitation Services, Ahmedabad indicate that several warning signals that were reported by the media four months ago were ignored

The people of Gujarat, especially Kutch and Saurashtra, have been victim to a relent
 less cycle of natural disasters: two cyclones, in 1998 and 1999, coupled with two successive years of drought. The present earthquake was of unprecedented intensity and the tragedy has raised legitimate questions about the quality and efficacy of government response related to disaster management.  A significant aspect of disaster management relates to responses to warnings of imminent disasters. 

Reports compiled by the Earthquake Affected Relief and Rehabilitation Services (EARRS), Ahmedabad indicate that several such signals that even appeared in the media four months ago, were ignored

Reports from newspapers of Sept. 2000:

Major quake may follow Bhavnagar tremor: Expert 
(PTI) 18 Sept. 2000, The Times of India

MUMBAI: The large number of tremors being felt in Bhavnagar district of Gujarat “may be indications of a possible major earthquake”, according to an eminent geologist. The 11 tremors in five hours on September 12 could be foreshocks which normally precede a major earthquake just as it happened in Killari in Maharashtra on September 30, 1993, said Dr V Subramanyan while delivering a lecture on “Seismic scenario around Mumbai” at the Indian Institute of Geo–magnetism here during the weekend. 

Bhavnagar is geologically identical to Mumbai and both fall under earthquake zone III where quakes of magnitude up to 6.5 were possible, he said. 
The district lies along the Gulf of Khambat which is near Narmada faults, well near Satranj river basin. Subramanyan, currently project advisor of department of earth sciences in IIT Mumbai, said normally the faults, lying quiet for some time, get reactivated suddenly and act as the route for the release of stored pressures. 

Appreciating the Gujarat government’s effort at assessing the strength of the existing buildings and planning to adopt appropriate building technology, he said such studies should be done systematically for posterity since “we have to live with the earthquakes”. Scientific studies have helped to demarcate possible seismic zones through integrated geological and geophysical investigations, he said, adding, “the only thing which can be attempted in seismic zones is to go in for appropriate construction using the right designs for different types of buildings, warehouses, power reactors and dams”. Talking about prediction and prevention of earthquakes, Subramanyan said the scientific community was still not in a position to predict earthquakes. 

“It is because there are many factors we do not know, like the depths where the pressures build up, for how long they accumulate before getting relieved through earthquakes and where the pressure is built”. 

Earthquakes are brought about by the sudden release of pressures that have been accumulating for a long time inside the earth just like a pressure cooker, he said. Rocks are strong to withstand such pressures for quite some time, but when the accumulating stress exceeds ultimate bearing capacity, then they break by developing “fault” planes — which are actually cracks through which the accumulated pressure is released suddenly generating an earthquake which normally does not last longer than 15 seconds. 

Killer quake feared in Gujarat district 
Thursday 14 September 2000, The Times of India
GANDHINAGAR: Three more mild tremors kept people awake all night in Bhavnagar district as the government prepared on Wednesday to meet any emergency situation in the coastal region sitting on a seismically active faultline. More than 30 mild tremors have been felt in Saurashtra in recent days, raising fears of a major geological activity that could cause death and destruction. 

Experts warned that a ‘’killer earthquake’’ could strike the region anytime as the Bhavnagar–Kodinar faultline seems to have ‘re–activated’. The latest tremors were experienced at around 11.15 pm on Tuesday, and 2.24 am and 6 am on Wednesday. The region was shaken nearly a dozen times on Tuesday.

More than 30 mild tremors have been felt in Saurashtra in recent days, raising fears of a major geological activity that could cause death and destruction.Experts warned that a ‘’killer earthquake’’ could strike the region anytime as the Bhavnagar–Kodinar faultline seems to have ‘re–activated’.
— The Times of India, September 14 , 2000

Three hundred families had been shifted to safer places. Chief minister Keshubhai Patel, in Bhavnagar campaigning for the September 17 civic elections, urged the Centre to rush a team of meteorologists and seismologists to study the phenomenon. Patel also held high–level review meetings of officials here on Wednesday. The state government has sanctioned Rs 50 lakh as contingency relief fund and despatched medical and engineering teams to Bhavnagar. (UNI)
 
Quiet Bhavnagar tremor raises quite a storm: Geologists to study connection with earth-quakes in Turkey, Taiwan
Discussion forum on Local Economy & Politics, 23rd September, 2000 
A team of geologists from Dehradun, Pune and Vadodara will look into whether the tremors felt in Bhavnagar on Tuesday were anyway related to the devastating earthquakes in Turkey and Taiwan. 

On the other hand, principal advisor to the chief minister, PK Lehari, said on Wednesday in Gandhinagar that there was no link between the earthquake that occurred in Taiwan and tremors felt in the Bhavnagar district of the state. Mr Lehari said that Bharuch and not Bhavnagar fall in the earthquake zone. 

Bhavnagar experienced slight tremors on Tuesday afternoon at 12.55 pm in an area of 80 sq km reaching up to Bhal Bhatta area in Alang. The tremors in Bhavnagar on Tuesday followed a severe earthquake in Taiwan where more than a thousand people died. Coincidentally, the earthquake in Turkey about one–and–a–half months back was also followed by tremors in the Bhavnagar city. 

Experts from Dehradun, Pune and Vadodra will also locate the epicentre of eruption in case the city faces a serious threat of earthquake. According to experts in the seismographic research department of the state, an earthquake is generally followed by slight tremors. No official records were taken one–and–a–half months back when the city experienced similar tremors following the Turkey earthquake. 

Gujarat Engineering Research Institute at Vadodara has also been contacted in this connection. According to the Maritime Board of Alang, the intensity of the tremors was greater at the ocean surface and near seashore areas. Similarly, in Bhavnagar, intensity of the tremors was less in rural areas, as a result of which residents have started shifting to villages. 

However, the Bhavnagar district collector, Mr Rajkumar, who was in Gandhinagar on Tuesday, said normal life was unaffected and also no loss of property was reported. 

Archived from Communalism Combat, February 2001 Year 8  No. 66, Cover Story 2

‘Keep religion away from politics’

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Communalism Combat gained access to an interesting correspondence between an Indian Muslim and the Islamic Supreme Council that recently endorsed the Pakistan/Kashmir Congressional Caucus in the USA. We are reproducing the same for the benefit of our readers. — Editors.

January 9, 2001
To: Dr. Hedieh Mirahmadi
GeneralSecretary
Islamic Supreme Council of America Washington, D.C. staff@islamicsupremecouncil.org

From: Mohammed Ayoob
ayoob@pilot.msu.edu

Dear Dr. Mirahmadi,

I have been pained to notice that on the website of the ISCA, which is supposed to represent all Muslims in the United States, you have endorsed the Pakistan/Kashmir Congressional Caucus and that ISCA is advising Muslims in the US to urge their Congressional representatives to join it. I strongly object to this as a Muslim of Indian origin for several reasons.

First, I do not think it proper for the ISCA to endorse any partisan groupings, especially in this case one which acts as a lobby group for Pakistan by encouraging anti–Indian sentiments. This is highly objectionable from the perspective of Indian Muslims residing in this country who consider anti–Indian propaganda as much directed against them as against other segments of the Indian community and the government of India.

Second, more Muslims reside in India than in Pakistan. There is a substantial Indian Muslim community in this country as well. By supporting Pakistani efforts to malign India on Kashmir and other issues, the ISCA hurts the interests both of the Indian Muslim community in this country and in India.

Finally, organisations representing religious communities should not get involved in international politics, especially since Muslims are spread over a large number of states several of which have tense or adversarial relations with each other.

Would your organisation feel comfortable supporting Kurdish positions against Iraq and/or Turkey or would it like to endorse Sudan’s positions against Egypt or vice–versa? Did you at any point get involved in a partisan way in the Iran–Iraq conflict by supporting one country against the other over the issue of Shatt–al–Arab? If you did not do so, then the same logic should apply to Kashmir and India–Pakistan disputes.

Such an endorsement by ISCA is, therefore, not proper, especially since there are more Muslims who are citizens of India than those who are citizens of Pakistan. You should be acutely aware of the fact that you are harming the interests of 130 million Indian Muslims when you endorse such partisan anti–Indian activities. Kashmiri Muslims, incidentally, form no more than two percent of the total Muslim population of India.

We have our own battles to fight to preserve the secular and non–sectarian character of the Indian Union and such stands taken by organisations purporting to represent Muslims in this country make our task immensely more difficult. Pakistan has never cared for the interests of Indian Muslims since the division of India in 1947. But the larger Muslim community, represented by organisations such as yours, has a religious duty to care about the welfare of one of the largest Muslim populations on earth.

More Muslims live in India than in the entire Arab world. You should put such issues in their proper demographic and political perspective and not be swayed by Pakistan’s self-serving propaganda. I believe that the least you can do now is to issue a statement in the press and on your website withdrawing your endorsement of the Pakistan/Kashmir Caucus as such endorsement is an insult to the large and vibrant Muslim community in India and harms the interests of Indian Muslims tremendously.

Mohammed Ayoob

University Distinguished Professor of International Relations
Michigan State University, USA

Response:

Dear Dr. Ayoob,

I read your comments about the Pakistan–Kashmir Caucus with great consideration and thought.  Most importantly, I want you to know firsthand that we never would endorse a partisan effort to malign one Muslim community against the other. It was never the intention of Congressman Owens or the ISCA to benefit Kashmir at the expense of the Indian Muslims. We sought only to endorse an effort by the US government to take an active role in regions of distress within the Muslim world.

Our vision of the Caucus was to seek resolution of the Kashmir crisis that has caused such tremendous losses on all sides.  We do not favour, nor do we succumb to propaganda by any side — we seek only peace and diplomatic resolutions to areas of conflict. We at ISCA respect your comments about us being a "religious" organisation and therefore should remain out of politics per se, which has in fact been a consistent policy of ours since our inception.

Quite frankly, it was not made aware to us that Indian Muslims would construe support of the Caucus as support against Indian Muslims; had we known that fact,our policy may have been different. Please, however, be assured that we mean no disrespect or ill will for the millions of Indian Muslims.  We sought only peace and good will for all. Accept our humble apologies for the misunderstanding and we will look into whether the organisation will continue to endorse the Caucus in light of your explanation of Indian Muslims’ sentiment on the issue.

— Dr. Hedieh Mirahmadi

Archived from Communalism Combat, February 2001 Year 8  No. 66, Document

‘We chose the Holy Family Hospital because we felt that it would at least be God-fearing’

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​Narayan Ananthakrishnan 

Publisher

In his late 30s, Narayan Ananthakrishnan, a father of two, was suddenly faced with a medical emergency. He had to undergo a brain surgery at less than 24 hours notice. Which hospital should he choose? Guided by his neuro–surgeon, who consulted with three such institutions, Narayan opted for the low–key Holy Family Hospital at Bandra, Mumbai. Recalling those harrowing weeks, in conversation with Communalism Combat, during which his life hung in the balance, Narayan has warm memories of an institution that lived upto it’s calling — caring for a patient with dignity and compassion.

It was all such a shock. I was not even aware that I was bleeding in my brain. I merely felt an acute pain on the top of my eyes that was unbearable when I went in for the MRA scan. The diagnosis indicated that there was severe bleeding on both sides of my brain and I had to be operated upon immediately.

It all happened within the space of a few hours actually. I left home at around 9 a.m. in June 1999, went through the MRA  scan and by 12.30 the diagnosis was known. Things moved at lightning speed after that because there was no time to be wasted. My brother–in–law, a doctor, helped me identify and contact a neurologist, Dr RD Gursani, immediately. There were two options before me in the choice of hospital (to which my neuro–surgeon, Dr Harshad Parikh is attached) since the third, the Hinduja hospital, was beyond our budget.  
It was to be either Nanavati or Holy Family Hospital at Bandra. None of us were in favour of Nanavati. Faced with a critical operation upon which my life depended, we chose Holy Family because essentially I am a God–fearing person and we felt that being a Christian hospital, Holy Family Hospital, too, would at least be God–fearing!

It didn’t bother me which God or which religion. First of all, I had faith in the doctor recommended to me who consulted there. Secondly, though I am a Hindu it does not bother me which God or which religion I see in front of me. Be it a Muslim place of worship, a Christian one or a temple. It is the home of God. 

I was in the hospital for just under two weeks. The nuns used to make their rounds, the father would come every single morning, check on how I was and ask, “How are you, son?” He would then bless me and say, “Don’t worry, son”. The first time he blessed me was on the morning that my operation was scheduled.

You see, I was under severe stress and  pain. It was a critical operation. Soon after the surgery that lasted over four hours, the surgeon came and told my wife, Geeta, “Whichever God it is you pray to, go and thank him. Thank him that your husband is safe. The amount of blood that I have removed from his brain, it was not in my hands to save him. I operate with the same sincerity on all my patients. He survived because of God.”

For the first few days there was unbearable pain, so bad that I could not open my eyes. But my entire treatment there, the handling by the staff, the operative and post–operative care was impeccable. I had no complaints. Post–operative care in my case was especially important since I am diabetic. My blood sugar needs to be tested three to four times a day and the staff did not need to be reminded even one time.

I was in a non–AC room with two beds, but my room and the whole hospital was spotlessly clean, the atmosphere calm and all the rooms spacious and airy. The staff responded immediately to the bells by the side of every patient. The floors, the tables and the toilets were kept scrupulously clean. The staff is well–trained and conscientious about injections and cleaning wounds, the sort of thing that is vital for a hospital. 

The whole ambience and atmosphere of this hospital was enriched by the church just across. Patients can hear the mass as it is conducted and this is very soothing, you know. I noticed this only on the fourth and fifth day because the first three days were a living hell with the kind of pain I had to undergo.

The strange thing is that after my operation, we heard so many people bad–mouthing Holy Family Hospital because it is a charitable hospital and so on! I find this ironical because my treatment there by the staff from the ward boy to the nurses was faultless. What struck me most was that there was no indifference in their behaviour towards me. Be it someone in the general ward or the first class ward, they treated every patient with the same concern and care.

Every time my father visited me in the hospital he would say, “Whenever you are feeling sad and afraid, just look up there to the photograph of Jesus Christ. Just look at him and he will save you.

Some things from my harrowing experience have left a lasting impression. I have been to a number of hospitals. My father has been admitted two–three times for operations; we have even admitted him to the Ramkrishna Mission hospital that is also a charitable hospital. But there is a vast difference between the two hospitals. In the atmosphere, the treatment of patients, the caring and dignity, cleanliness, there can be no comparison.

One thing I remember clearly about the Holy Family hospital was the strict adherence to rules. They would not budge from the visiting hours rule, no body was allowed after the permitted time! Even my own  brother–in–law, who is a doctor, was not allowed to enter the operation theatre because
he had not taken prior permission from the surgeon. He finally had to approach the head of the department for the clearance. They were very strict about certain things which I think is not happening in all the hospitals and which is why standards are not being maintained.

My wife stayed with me most days. There was another strict rule of not allowing children into hospitals to guard against their picking up any infection. On the seventh or eighth day I approached the Father to give me special permission to let me see my children for just five minutes. I had been through a tough time, come out of it but not seen their faces. I promised that I would not even speak with them and finally they allowed them to come and see me. 

The only thing that I remember on the negative side was their inability to register my request for a pure vegetarian meal, be it breakfast or lunch. I made repeated requests to the dietician but the request just would not register! It might sound facetious but once I find either egg or fish in the plate I just lose my appetite. But all things considered I feel that this was a relatively minor complaint.

Above all else, I got this efficient and considerate treatment at a decent and affordable rate. My total bill for a serious brain surgery and fourteen days of hospitalisation, including the surgeon’s charges (normally we have to pay doctors separately) amounted to Rs. 70,000. We must have spent another Rs.15–20,000 on medication and injections purchased from outside. Can you ever contemplate such reasonable treatment in a so–called private hospital?

Besides, no section of the staff was on the look out for tips every other day that has become the hapless norm in most hospitals in the city. From the man or woman who swept the floors to any other member of the staff, they did not accept tips.

I wanted to give them a donation in cash or kind before I left the hospital as a token of my appreciation but they simply refused. My father even spoke to the head sister in Malayalam explaining that what we wanted to give was a token of our appreciation for the institution but she simply said that their rules forbade her from accepting. “The fact that you recovered well is sufficient for us,” she told my father.

We all left the hospital, extremely happy. The greatest happiness of course was in my recovery itself from a critical and sudden brain surgery. Coupled with the warm treatment I received there.
Every time my father visited me in the hospital he would say, “Whenever you are feeling sad and afraid, just look up there to the photograph of Jesus Christ. Just look at him and he will save you.” The photograph of Jesus hung just above my hospital bed.