Say’s argument was as follows. Whatever is produced generates an equal amount of income among those associated with its production. This income is either consumed or ‘saved’ (i.e., not consumed). Whatever is consumed generates an equal amount of demand for the produced consumption goods, and whatever is ‘saved’ is either directly used for purchasing capital goods, or offered as a loan to those who wish to purchase capital goods, namely, undertake investment, by borrowing. Whatever is ‘saved’ and whatever is invested are ultimately equalised through adjustments in the interest rate, so that through such adjustments whatever is produced gets ultimately demanded in the aggregate, and the capitalist economy has no reasons for not being at a state of maximum production, that is, at full employment. There may be demand-supply mismatches in particular markets, but never in the aggregate.

The problem with Say’s Law is that all demand out of incomes earned in the current period is seen to be for goods produced in the current period, whether for consumption or for adding to one’s wealth (i.e., investment). But if persons wish to add to their wealth in the form of money (and that would be the case if they hold their wealth partly also in the form of money), which is not a good produced in the current period (for instance if they wish to hold paper money out of their current incomes), then there is no reason why the supply of produced goods in the current period should create a demand equal to itself.

In the C-M-C circuit, if persons do not wish to convert M into C, then there will be an overproduction of C, i.e., of produced goods. And any reduction in the money-price of produced goods in such a situation of insufficient demand, would only strengthen the demand for money as a form of wealth and hence not eliminate the over-production tendency.

Mainstream bourgeois economics which assumed Say’s Law, held that persons never wished to hold money as a form of wealth, that money was only a medium of circulation but never a form of wealth-holding. This, however, was an absurd assumption. It was not only empirically untrue, but also logically untenable, which is why Say’s Law was an absurd assumption to make for a capitalist economy.

Karl Marx had been quite scathing about Say’s Law and about J B Say as an economist (whom he had called the “trite” Monsieur Say) and had expounded the possibility of an over-production crises under capitalism.

Why, it may be wondered, are we talking about such arcane debates in economics, which were settled not only by Marx but resettled in the 1930s by the Keynesian Revolution in bourgeois economics at the time of the Great Depression, when to argue that a capitalist economy can never experience a deficiency of aggregate demand for produced goods was ludicrous in the extreme.

Keynes wanted to save Western capitalism from a Bolshevik-style revolution, and to do so, he recognised, one had to first admit its failures and repair the system to overcome them so that a revolution could be forestalled.

The reason we are talking about Say’s Law is because it has made a silent return to economic discourse, a return whose very silence makes it as influential as it is insidious. In fact, the rationale for the entire neo-liberal economic order is based on assuming the validity of Say’s Law.

The intellectual groundwork for neoliberalism, and for jettisoning the dirigiste strategy that had been prevalent until then (in India the dirigiste strategy is often referred to as the Nehru-Mahalanobis strategy), was laid down in the early 1970s. The argument was advanced that four east Asian ‘tigers’ — South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore — had shown remarkably high economic growth rates, much higher than countries like India pursuing dirigiste strategies; and that if other countries too abandoned dirigisme, or what the World Bank called their ‘inward-looking’ development strategy, and pursued ‘export-led growth’ instead, then they too could emerge as successful as these ‘Asian tigers’.

This was an absurd argument. If the level of world aggregate demand is expanding at a certain rate, then the output of all countries taken together cannot possibly expand at a higher rate. If the output of some countries is expanding at a higher rate than world aggregate demand, it is because the output of others is expanding at a lower rate.

If the output growth of the hitherto slow-growers accelerates then that can only be at the expense of those who were hitherto growing rapidly.

Hence, to dangle the hope that all countries could grow as rapidly as the ‘Asian tigers’ if only they pursued an ‘export-led growth’ strategy was absurd. It amounted to ignoring the constraint of aggregate demand, namely, to assuming Say’s Law. Behind the call to abandon the Nehruvian strategy, therefore, was an invoking of the absurd Say’s Law.

This invoking, however, was camouflaged, which is why it succeeded. The camouflage took the form of a ‘small country assumption’. A small country, precisely because it is small, can push out larger exports at the expense of larger countries without causing them damage on a scale that they would notice. For small countries, therefore, the assumption that they can export more if they wish, namely, that they face no noticeable demand constraint, makes some sense, and is often made.

But the neoliberal strategy of ‘export-led growth’ was sold to all countries by pretending that each of them could act as if it was a ‘small country’. This was utterly absurd, a flagrant case of the converse fallacy of aggregation, and a back-door entry for Say’s Law.

Of course, the success of the four Asian ‘countries’ was followed by more spectacular growth successes in China and South-East Asia; true, they were not necessarily examples of neoliberal strategy, nor of ‘export-led growth’ pure and simple. And to the extent that they had export successes, this was to a large extent because Western metropolitan capital chose to locate plants on their soil for producing for the Western metropolitan market.

The counterpart of their success, in other words, was the slower growth of metropolitan capitalist economies, though not of metropolitan capitals, not to mention the fact that other Third World countries were left out in the race. It was a race nonetheless among countries.

By falsely assuming Say’s Law, the ‘export-led growth’ strategy actually pitted countries, especially countries of the Third World, against one another. For example, India could export more garments only at the expense of Bangladesh, and so on. This, in turn, meant that the more a country could squeeze its working population by giving them lower wages, extracting from them longer hours of work, and withholding legitimate payments from them through fraud, the more successful it would be in its export drive. Inequalising growth, or even poverty-generating growth, was thus built into the very logic of ‘export-led growth’.

Inequalising growth, however, ultimately meant a slowing down of the rate of growth of demand in the world economy and hence the onset of a crisis for the export-led growth strategy. Even before the pandemic, the decadal growth rate of GDP (gross domestic product) for the world economy as a whole had been the lowest among all the decades since the Second World War; and this growth rate has slowed down even further after the pandemic.

This strategy, apart from being ethically repugnant, since it apotheosizes cut-throat competition among the oppressed people, has brought the world economy to a cul-de-sac. The only way that an economy of the Third World can get out of this dead end is by activating the State to undertake larger expenditures to enlarge the home market. 

Enlarging the home market requires increasing the rate of agricultural growth (which puts more income in the hands of the peasants and agricultural labourers), raising the level of minimum wages (which puts more income in the hands of the workers), and increasing welfare state measures (which improves the real living standards of the entire working population); and it requires financing such spending through wealth and inheritance taxation.

All this, however, would require imposing capital controls, especially on financial outflows, which in turn would necessitate trade controls. It would require, in short, abandoning the strategy of ‘export-led growth’ and hence overcoming the stranglehold of Say’s Law that has already done so much damage.

The writer is Professor Emeritus, Centre for Economic Studies and Planning, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. The views are personal.

Courtesy: Newsclick

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In this world, labour, like every other commodity that exchanges hands, is expected to yield a certain return to the boss man. But while the market value of other commodities – like gold or petrol – is dictated by scarcity, labour’s market value comes from its abundance. The spectre of unemployment, which is treated as a social, religious, cultural, economic, and political malady, forever looms as a haunting threat above the workers’ heads, forcing them to keep competing with each other.

For most of India’s tech workers, this hyper-competitive environment means exploitative work conditions, precarious living arrangements, and a hierarchical structure that rewards obedience and subservience. But it is also true that this workforce is not a uniform entity. In fact, a certain segment of this group – including the alumni of India’s elite STEM (science, technology, engineering, mathematics) colleges – finds itself in well-paying and relatively more secure jobs.

By thus showering this small group of workers with monetary benefits and perks, the market creates a feedback loop that keeps the majority in check. They are encouraged, incentivised, and, in many cases, threatened, to follow in the steps of their better-paid peers, forced to keep running in the rat race. More importantly, even the supposed winners of this race are not truly free.

For starters, the market alienates these highly-educated and clearly skilled individuals from their own interests, forcing them to work on products and ideas that benefit no one but the valuation of their employers, even if they harm the larger public. What is even worse is that despite sustaining a multi-trillion dollar global economy, this group hardly sees itself as belonging to a larger workforce, let alone a united one.

As a result, far from resisting the market’s demands, these well-off workers become aspiring entrepreneurs – capitalists in making, if you will. From data-hungry apps all the way to pointless, and even harmful, AI (artificial intelligence) tools, they are trained to use their knowledge to do nothing but create whatever is deemed worthy of a reward. Their questions and concerns about the social utility of their labour (if there are any in the first place) are necessarily side-stepped for more relevant factors, such as monetization or investor interest.

Now, is this specific to India? Certainly not. The recent capture of the US state by the Big Tech and ‘crypto’ lobbies, is a clear indication of whose requirements tech workers are really addressing.

Is this limited to tech workers alone? Also, a no. Engineers, scientists, and developers of today are just the latest addition to hordes of workers serving the interests of the ruling classes.

Why Write This? And Why Now?

To begin with, India’s submission to market forces has been dizzyingly quick in the digital economy. Its embrace of certain technologies for governance purposes (like DPIs – digital public infrastructure) and its large-scale support for digitally-enabled startups (through Digital India, Startup India, the IndiaAI Mission, among others) are just the more visible examples of this capitulation. Combine that with our legacy of providing cheap labour to MNCs (multinational corporations) – and, for the past 30 years or so, Indian tech workers have uncritically served the interests of global and domestic capital.

Locally, this has meant an ever-growing interest in engineering courses, especially in computer science and electronics, which has only amplified the competitive pressures on an already exploited workforce. Domestic MNCs, such as Infosys, WIPRO, and TCS, are clear examples of how these ‘high-skilled’  workers are seen as easily replaceable by market giants (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7). And these are just the home-grown capitalists – let us not even get into on Big Tech and how it has completely dismembered any semblance of worker opposition.

The overtly exploited and alienated nature of these workers is only one reason behind focusing on them here. The other reason is that the technologies they develop, which are becoming more and more ubiquitous in our lives, re-create the market’s logic of segmentation, exploitation, and alienation in sectors where it did not exist! Urban Company and its top-down standardisation of beauty workers is a great example of this trend.

Everything from healthcare, education, and banking, to personal communication, media and entertainment is now mediated by a set of extractive digital platforms designed to maximise user engagement and sustain the ad economy that runs today’s internet. While data breaches, financial frauds, and online misinformation are the more noticeable adverse outcomes of such innovations, there is a much darker side of things, too.

Because of the warm relationship that the capitalist class wishes to enjoy with any State, the labour of this workforce also serves the interests of authoritarian governments across the world. This can be best seen in the creation of large-scale surveillance technologies, including Pegasus, which has reportedly been used on Indian civil rights activists.

So, here we are. Subject to the market’s logic of production, the Indian tech workforce presents a bit of an interesting contradiction. Its internal inequality means that most tech workers are too busy surviving and climbing the hierarchy to even question the outcomes of their labour, whereas those with more security are too disillusioned with the capitalist promise of success to even care.

Before this bleak outlook puts you off, one must state that this is not inevitable.

As a start, workers involved in sustaining the digital economy, especially those in relatively secure places, can introspect on the social, economic, and political ramifications of their work. Think of it as a more voluntary analogue to the Hippocratic Oath, but for coders, developers, and designers. Something that ensures that your labour does not power innovations that are harmful (such as deceptive design practices), and certainly not those that are just outright deadly (like, killer drones, maybe?).

But it is also important to recognise that a change in individual attitudes alone would not suffice here. It does not matter if a few workers create more ethical digital technologies — competitive pressures ensure that a small band of such rebels will either be fired and replaced, or if they succeed, they will have to compete in an uphill battle with firms that may not be as interested in paying such ‘ethical costs’ (for the lack of a better word).

Unless such costs are imposed consistently – through regulatory interventions or other external pressures – companies will always have an incentive to shirk these responsibilities in a hyper-competitive environment. As a prominent example, look at how the world’s biggest tech giants quietly went back on their sustainability goals when they realised that serving the AI demand would require them to double down on energy and water consumption!

This gap brings us to the second point.

Educate. Agitate. Organise

As engineers, scientists, and people with technical expertise, this class of workers is not alien to the power of knowledge. And if there is one good thing about the modern internet, it is its sustained (albeit, struggling) democratisation of information.

So, step away from algorithmically enclosed social networks that feed you information passively. Instead, learn about the political value of your work and your labour by seeking answers more actively – be it through books, newsletters, documentaries, audio books, blogs, or just even talking to people around you. Most importantly, learn about the lives not just made because of your innovations, but also those that were disrupted or, worse, destroyed. (A few personal suggestions on books that can help you get started: 1, 2, 3, 4).

You may not feel comfortable seeking this knowledge, and you may not be able to do much with it yet. But this is just the first step.

If all goes well, this experience should ideally force some of you (yes, I’m talking to the IITians and the BITSians here) to confront the realities of your labour. Start with your colleagues. Talk to them about what you are learning and seek out their perspectives on it. Invite them to help you care for this sapling of radical education. You should also feel the urge to question your superiors – in your workplaces, in your colleges, in your ministries. Indulge in this emotion. Nurture it.

And that is not just because asking questions makes you more informed, but also because the act of questioning authority in a public setting normalises that urge in your peers. They may begin to dwell on these issues, too, and who knows, your actions may even earn you an ally. “Sure,” I see you wondering, “but what about the ramifications of raising these questions? What if I am fired, or rusticated, or just alienated?” Fair, and that brings me to ‘Organise.’

You are not the first worker to be facing this conflict. The history of capitalism is filled with examples after examples of workers unionising to fight the employers’ urge to skirt criticism or amplify exploitation. Learn from that history. Global examples like the “Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions” (BDS) movement also provide a recent glimpse of how powerful worker mobilisation and collective action can be (1, 2, 3, 4, 5). Despite their relative nascence, IT/ITes workers’ unions in India are gaining rapid momentum and popularity. Reach out to these organisations, and others like them, and become aware of your rights as an employee, as an independent contractor, or even as an unpaid intern.

Find unity in numbers. And believe it or not, this would definitely require you to repair the rifts caused by systems of religious, caste, and gender oppression inside your workforce. The ruling class is an expert at widening differences between you and your peers to challenge your efforts in all ways possible. So, unless you begin seeing them as equal and dignified fellows, you will be alienated from each other and picked apart by the powers that be.

Last, if you find yourself too introverted or too exhausted to do any of this, consider using your leisure time to volunteer your labour for more equitable solutions.

Use your knowledge and skills to imagine technical alternatives to today’s social media, e-commerce, and search monopolies. India’s foray into DPIs, for all its faults, provides a partial glimpse into what large-scale digital innovations created on the lines of interoperability, openness, and collective ownership could look like. Use these experiences as a springboard to contribute to open-source projects. And if you can, support organisations and institutes that lack the requisite technical capacity to oppose the ongoing onslaught of capital.

The tech workers of this country have remained pawns in the game of wealth transfer for too long now. Initially the affordable back-office of multinational conglomerates, India has since transitioned into an ally to global capitalism. But the tech workforce of this country remains split. Some are lured by the idea of making it big, and fail to realise the implications of their labour on communities out of their sight. And a majority of others – those without access to caste networks and private capital – are made to slog as chattel for mere pittances in a work culture that sucks the life out of you.

This needs to change. This article tries to articulate the need for the many tech workers of today and of the years to come. Your knowledge and your labour deserve more than what the current system of economic production offers you. Worse still, it is your labour that is also responsible for powering and sustaining that same system today.

As students of STEM, we are all much too aware of the double-sided nature of technological progress, but it is high time we realise that we are no longer just passive participants in this journey. You, as an individual, may not be able to do a lot; but you, as a class of workers, can certainly aspire to that.

It will take time, sure, but the question remains: how comfortable are you supporting a system that not only alienates you from your peers, but also makes you support a wasteful, harmful, and exploitative logic of technological growth?

The author is a technology researcher and writer. The views are personal.

Courtesy: Newsclick

The post Whose Interests is India’s Tech Workforce Serving? appeared first on SabrangIndia.

The open communication to the government of India states that, even today, the stock market has not fully recovered. It appears that the trigger for the unsavoury sequence of events came from no less than the Prime Minister himself, when he “predicted” a stock market surge on June 4, namely, the date of counting of votes in the 2024 elections, conveying a hint that investors should invest in the stock market, as his government’s return to power would usher in further so-called “reforms”.

While expressing perplexity at what really prompted the PM to make such an ill-advised statement, Sarma adds that Modi’s statement was followed by the Union Home Minister, who is reported to have added fuel to fire by saying, that investors should buy before June 4.

As per his expectations, as reported, “the markets will shoot up” “The Prime Minister and the Union Home Minister are expecting market gains on 4th June” (livemint.com/market/stock-m…).

The PM being a responsible person occupying a high public office would not have made such an imprudent statement, had he not got some inputs either from within the Ministry of Finance itself or from outside, but his statement compounded by the Home Minister’s gave a feeling to unwary small investors that they were privy to some inside information, prompting them to blindly invest whatever little they had.

The entire communication may be read here:

From: Dr E A S Sarma Former Secretary to the Government of India

To: Shri Ajay Seth Secretary (Economic Affairs)

Govt of India

Dear Shri Seth,

It is disturbing that a combination of factors triggered a stock market surge on the June 3, 2024, followed by a huge crash during the day that followed, wiping out the hard earned savings invested in the market by small and marginal investors, allowing the bigger stockmarket sharks to profiteer at their cost.

Even today, the stock market has not fully recovered. It appears that the trigger for the unsavoury sequence of events came from no less than the Prime Minister himself, when he “predicted” a stock market surge on June 4, namely, the date of counting of votes in the 2024 elections, conveying a hint that investors should invest in the stock market, as his government’s return to power would usher in further so-called “reforms”.

I am not sure what really prompted the PM to make such an ill-advised statement. His statement was followed by the Union Home Minister, who is reported to have added fuel to fire by saying, that investors should buy before 4th June.

As per his expectations, as reported, “the markets will shoot up” “The Prime Minister and the Union Home Minister are expecting market gains on 4th June” (livemint.com/market/stock-m…). The PM being a responsible person occupying a high public office would not have made such an imprudent statement, had he not got some inputs either from within the Ministry of Finance itself or from outside, but his statement compounded by the Home Minister’s gave a feeling to unwary small investors that they were privy to some inside information, prompting them to blindly invest whatever little they had.

The huge losses that followed have certainly eroded the credibility of the stock market. This is something that cannot and should not be taken lightly, as it caused widespread misery to lakhs of small investors.

I have the following questions that call for answers: Did some “expert” in the Ministry of Finance provide inputs on this to the PMO? On what basis?

If the source of such misleading information can be identified, the concerned needs to be brought to book immediately.

Did an outsider, especially a large investor in the stock market, provide unsolicited advice to the PM?

If so, did that person deliberately mislead the PM to trigger volatility in the stock market and mint profits at the cost of small investors?

If so, such an investor needs to be identified and subject to deterrent penal action.

Where did the investor or investors who earned profits park their ill-gotten money? Is there a link to a money-laundering exercise?

The Enforcement Directorate, if it can function independently as it should, may be asked to investigate this possibility.

What has been the role played by the SEBI in all this?

Could SEBI have calmed down the market by countering false statements?

Has SEBI taken up an investigation?

There were reports earlier that the regulatory agencies were getting ready to deal with a stock market crisis that was likely to occur.

If that is so, why should the regulators become silent spectators to a stock market bloodbath?

I feel that the Department of Economic Affairs cannot afford to remain passive and allow the culprits to go scot free.

It should ask the ED, CBI and CBDT to conduct a well coordinated investigation in a time bound manner, so that the incoming new government, the newly elected Parliament and, of course, the public at large, would have to be apprised of this.

Regards,

Yours sincerely,

E A S Sarma

Visakhapatnam June 5, 2024

The post Investigate suspicious stock market surge and fall: former Sec to the GOI appeared first on SabrangIndia.

Results of city-wise trends on funding raised in first quarter of 2024, released by Tracxn, claiming to be a leading market intelligence platform, showo that Bengaluru topped with $247 million and 44% of all funding received, followed by Mumbai ($194 million or 35%), Hyderabad ($75.0 million or 13%), Gurgaon ($19.7 million or 3%), and Surat – the only Gujarat city to figure in Tracxn’s list of cities — ($5.0 million or 1%).

Yet, ironically, the report seeks to heap praise the Indian economy, which it says “showed a strong performance in the previous quarter with a growth of 8.4%.” Agreeing that the “this number is expected to decline to 5.9% in Q1 2024 as per government sources”, it insists, “The Government of India has always been focused on promoting the tech ecosystem in the country.”

The declining trend in the funding of the FinTech startup ecosystem has come despite “the announcement of the Startup India Initiative in 2016”, which came up with “multiple schemes and initiatives have been introduced to boost the growth of India’s startup ecosystem”, to quote from the report. Thus, “Around $12 billion was allocated in the Interim Budget for 2024 for providing interest-free loans for 50 years to promote R&D in the private sector in the country.”

The report quotes the IMF to say that India is “expected to become the third-largest economy in the world by 2027 with a GDP of over $5 trillion”, and “with a large consumer base comprising the world’s largest young population and rising urban incomes, India is set to see good growth in the coming years.”

It adds, “FinTech has consistently been one of the top funded sectors in the country. Increasing smartphone penetration, the push towards a cashless economy, and other favourable regulatory policies have helped the sector receive consistent investor interest.”

Making a comparison of funding in Q1 of 2024 and Q4 of 2023 instead of Q1 of 2023, the report says, “Banking Tech, the third-highest funded sector, received funding of $85.8 million in Q1 2024, which is a growth of 187% compared to the $29.9 million in funding witnessed in Q4 2023, benefiting substantially from record-breaking UPI transactions and digital banking’s widespread adoption due to rising internet and mobile device penetration in cities and rural areas.”

However, this comparison, which many would consider incomparable (as the compared periods do not match), also shows that, to quote from the report, “Q1 2024 witnessed a significant 75% drop in seed-stage funding, which was at $9.9 million compared to $39.2 million in the previous quarter. Early-stage funding saw a 35% drop from $227 million raised in Q4 2023 to $147 million in Q1 2024. Only late-stage funding rounds witnessed a phenomenal rise of 392% to $394 million, compared to $80.1 million in Q4 2023.”

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Based on household consumer expenditure survey (HCES) in order to ascertain “living standards” across India, the state-wise estimation of average monthly per capita consumption expenditure (MPCE) suggests that Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Uttarakhand, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra – including two major smaller states, Delhi and Goa and several Union territories – have higher MPCE in urban areas.

Worse, while Gujarat’s urban MPCE – estimated at Rs 6,683 – is a little above the national average, Rs 6,521, the state’s rural MPCE, Rs 3,820, nearly half of the state’s urban MPCE, is below the national average (Rs 3,860). The states which have better rural MPCE than Gujarat’s are – Kerala, Himachal Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Punjab, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Maharashtra, apart from other important smaller states like Delhi and Goa and several Union Territories (click here for full table).

Explaining the concept of per capita income or per capita (overall) expenditure which has been used, the top Government of India document says, it is “used for comparison of average living standards between countries, between regions, and between social or occupational groups.” It adds, “MPCE, therefore, is defined first at the household level: household monthly consumption expenditure, divided by household size. This measure serves as the indicator of the household’s level of living.”

“Next”, states the document, “Each individual’s MPCE is defined as the MPCE of the household to which the person belongs. This assigns to each person a number representing his or her level of living. The distribution of persons by their MPCE (i.e., their household MPCE) can then be built up, giving a picture of the population classified by economic level.”

Released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation’s National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) last week, the household surveys were carried out between August 2022 and July 2023 in as many 1,55,014 rural and 1,06,732 urban households in order to ascertain living standards India. Of these, the surveyors – who were divided into 10 panels – visited Gujarat’s 5,726 rural and 5,560 urban households.

While estimating living standards, if the survey offers all-India estimates of MPCE across 10 different classes each for rural and urban areas across India, ironically, it does not offer state-wise MPCE of different classes, making it impossible to ascertain the average living standard of the poorest of poor sections versus those who are in the top stratum of society, for instance, in Gujarat. These are likely to be known in June 2024 only, i.e. after the Lok Sabha elections, when the full HCES report is likely to be released.

Meanwhile, allegations have been made that the Fact Sheet has been released alongside the Niti Aayog interpretation ahead of the Lok Sabha polls in order to take political mileage. Top economist Prof Arun Kumar says that, based on the Fact Sheet data officials have claimed that poverty in India has declined to less than 5% of the population is poor. However, the alleged fall in poverty is based on current prices, without taking taking into account inflation.

According to him, “At current prices, the increase in average consumption looks impressive. It increased 164% in rural areas to Rs 3,773 (from Rs 1,430 in 2011-12) and in urban areas by 146% to Rs 6,459 (from Rs 2,630 in 2011-12). But most of it is due to inflation. Adjusting for inflation, the real increase is 40% and 33.5% for rural and urban areas, respectively. This is in 11 years.”

Stating that the Fact Sheet does not make any reference to poverty eradication, nor is there suggestion of any poverty line given by the HCES, economists wonder, how is the value judgment made by Niti Aayog – that poverty has fallen? Asks Prof Arun Kumar, “What is the poverty line that is being used to claim that poverty has declined? Poverty has to be defined as ‘minimum social necessary consumption’. This is space and time specific. So, it keeps changing.”

Thus, he says, “The World Bank has changed its poverty line recently from $1.9 to $2.15 per person per day. This amounts to about Rs 26,000 per family of five per month. Even adjusting for nominal dollars, it would be about Rs 10,000 per family per month. If this poverty line is considered, then the number of poor would be much more than the 5% being quoted by officials.”

Offering a breakup suggesting the difference in standard of living between different classes, the Fact Sheet gives the following data, “The bottom 5% of India’s rural population, ranked by MPCE, has an average MPCE of Rs 1,441 while it is Rs 2,087 in the urban areas. The top 5% of India’s rural and urban population, ranked by MPCE, has an average MPCE of Rs. 10,581 and Rs 20,846, respectively.”

It further notes, “Among the states, MPCE is the highest in Sikkim for both rural and urban areas (rural – Rs 7,731 and urban – Rs. 12,105). It is the lowest in Chhattisgarh (rural – Rs 2,466 and urban – Rs 4,483). The rural-urban difference in average MPCE, among the states is the highest in Meghalaya (83%) followed by Chhattisgarh (82%). Among the Union Territories, MPCE is the highest in Chandigarh (rural – Rs 7,467 and urban – Rs 12,575), whereas, it is the lowest in Ladakh (Rs 4,035) and Lakshadweep (Rs 5,475) for rural and urban areas respectively.”

Courtesy: Counter View

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The Old Pension Scheme was designed to guarantee lifelong support for government employees post-retirement. Employees did not contribute to the fund.  However in the new scheme, retirees get a pension based on a specific formula which is equal to 50% of their final salary before retirement. In December 2023, the Finance Minister had reportedly stated that there were no plans to revert to the OPS.  However, several state government have tried to accommodate employees under the OPS this year, including Karnataka, Sikkim. Kerala is slated to make a revised pension scheme for the OPS.

Similarly, youth in Lucknow and Prayagraj were seen protesting after an exam for recruitment of police constables in the state saw a paper leak. The examination board had at first rejected the claims of the paper leak, however, after the date of the slated exam, the Uttar Pradesh government announced that they were cancelling the examination and a new one would be taking place six months from the date of the last examination.

Similarly, in Bhopal the youth congress took to protest on February 14, 2024, against the Modi government for the lack of jobs and rising unemployment in the state. Addressing the same question of unemployment, Congress’s Priyanka Gandhi Vadra spoke on the question of unemployment at a Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra rally in UP’s Aligarh, and stated, “BJP has been in power for 10 years. Many big events such as the G20 Summit took place, everyone said that the respect of the country is increasing due to such events, even we agree to it, but I want to ask, is the respect of the country not connected with the young, our policemen, and students? There are no jobs for the youth, farmers are still sitting on roads, inflation is a burden for the people of the country.”

Similarly, The Wire reported youth protests in Rajasthan after the termination of the Rajiv Gandhi Yuva Mitra Internship scheme by the Rajasthan government. The 4,000 people who were actively involved in the program protested as they had reportedly lost their monthly income after the scheme was reportedly terminated. They stated that the government can rebrand and rename the scheme but cannot stop it as it was resulting in the loss of their monthly income. The BJP has argued that the scheme was used by the Congress to promote its own ideology, according to The Wire.

Related:

The UP government cancels constable exam after youth protests ‘paper leak’

Farmers protest: Death of a farmer after teargas shells dropped by Haryana cops, protests intensify as 77 SM accounts banned by MEITY/MHA

Govandi slum demolition: Temporary halt after protests outside BMC office by residents, those rendered homeless to rebuild their homes at the same site

Uttarakhand state assembly tables UCC Bill amidst protests by opposition members 

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According to the report released on 4 December 2023, Maharashtra recorded the highest number of suicides (22,746) for the third consecutive year, followed by Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Madhya Pradesh.

If we look at these statistics, it is clear that the working class in the country is at the top in terms of suicides. A third of these figures are suicides of farmers and farm labourers. The next highest number of suicides is that of daily wage labourers, whose number is 44,713, which is 26.4 per cent of the total. This figure is 1% more than last year.

Also if we talk about professionals, they account for 9.2 percent of suicide cases, including 14,395 salaried and 18,357 self-employed people. Looking at suicides due to unemployment, it is 9.2 percent, while 3,541 such cases were reported in 2021, while the number was marginally lower in 2022 – 3,170.

Rising suicide rate across the country is the most worrisome. Over the years people’s purchasing power has gone down, while inflation has been on the rise. Along with this, unemployment has also peaked. As a result, people’s savings have also declined by 5 per cent. While NCRB data says that most workers quit due to family reasons. or suicides due to illness, financial crisis is one of the main reasons.

According to NCRB, 1,09,875 people who committed suicide i.e. 64.3 percent have an annual income of less than Rs 1 lakh. There has been a huge increase in the number of suicides by 27.06 percent in the last five years and the proportion of suicides (16.4) is higher in urban areas.

Govt’s false development claims

These figures expose the government’s false development claims. Earlier, farmers used to commit suicide, but this was not the case with labourers. Labourers used to migrate for work and earn their livelihood by doing anything, but the problem of employment has arisen in front of them, and in the last few years, workers are also committing suicide and this number is increasing in big cities as well which is more serious. It shows that the workers are desperate and hence they are sacrificing their lives.

The National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) has released its ‘Crime in India 2022’ report. Like every year, this year also there has been an increase in the incidents of violence against women. According to the data in the report, a total of 4,45,256 crimes against women have been reported in 2022. Whereas earlier in 2021, 4,28,278 and 3,71,503 cases were reported in 2020. That is, last year in 2022, about 51 crimes were registered every hour in relation to crimes against women. This data tells a different truth than all the promises and intentions of women’s safety.

According to this report, Uttar Pradesh recorded the highest number of cases of crimes against women last year in 2022. About 65 thousand 743 crimes were registered here. This is the same BJP-ruled state where speeches from Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath to Union Home Minister Amit Shah cite examples of women’s safety. Everything from Mission Shakti to Safe City scheme for women is going on here, but the story of insecurity does not change.

Capital Delhi has the worst record in terms of crime against women. The crime rate against women in Delhi is 144.4, higher than the national average of 66.4. This crime rate is per one lakh women. If we understand it in simple terms, it is the percentage of women victims of crime in relation to population i.e. for every 1 lakh women. Crime rate against women is 118.7 in Haryana, 117 in Telangana, 115.1 in Rajasthan.

Maharashtra and Rajasthan are not far behind in cases of violence against women. 45 thousand 331 cases have been registered in Maharashtra and 45 thousand 58 cases in Rajasthan.

Highest 31.4% cases of crimes against women under IPC were of cruelty by husband or his relatives

Trinamool Congress’s West Bengal is not far behind among the unsafe states for women. Women had special expectations from Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, but here too 34 thousand 738 cases were registered.

Elections were held recently in Madhya Pradesh, where the BJP was described as a ‘women-loving’ government, but under Shivraj Singh’s rule, 32,765 cases of crimes against women were registered here too. These are the statistics of some states where leaders and ministers do not tire of repeatedly claiming that it is safe for women. Schemes are carried out in the name of security, posters with their pictures published in newspapers, However, every day the pages of newspapers expose the security system of women well. And perhaps the success of the women’s movement is that women are becoming aware and raising their voices against the oppression they face.

Women are most vulnerable in their homes

According to the report, the highest 31.4% cases of crimes against women under Indian Penal Code (IPC) were of cruelty by husband or his relatives. This means women are most vulnerable in their own homes. This was followed by 19.2% cases of kidnapping and abduction of women by luring or threatening them. At the same time, 18.7% of women were assaulted with the intention of defaming their dignity and 7.1% of cases of rape were reported.

Law and order in Delhi is in the hands of the central government and is controlled by the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA government. Under the leadership of Narendra Modi, the BJP contested the 2014 Lok Sabha elections on which women’s safety was an important issue. The party made many promises in its manifesto and the Prime Minister in his speech. But now that Prime Minister Modi’s second term is coming to an end, the question is now being raised whether those promises were limited to slogans.

It is noteworthy that NCRB’s ‘Crime in India’ report was released this time on December 3 i.e. Sunday. This report comes every year and every year we lament the increasing crimes against women, like – violence against women has increased this year compared to last year or how many women and minor girls are victims of rape every day. The graph of murder, domestic violence, dowry is high in these metros and sometimes the graph of domestic violence, dowry death is high in these metros and sometimes these states are most unsafe for women. But this does not solve the issue of women’s safety or change the status of women.

Courtesy: CounterView

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The document, which has been released as part of the 112-page government resolution (GR), whose annexures say it all, is a guideline on what all the selected 20-odd young graduates with a mere 60% with a monthly stipend of Rs 1 lakh (which is more than the salary of state class one entry-level state official) – would need to do research on.

It admits, “There is wide gap in the generation of the sewage and its scientific disposal”, underlining, “Lack of adequate system for sewage collection in villages and small towns” is leading to “serious water pollution problems due to discharge of untreated domestic sewage into recipient bodies like rivers, natural drains, lakes, seashores or groundwater.”

At the same time, the document believes, the problem is equally huge in big cities. It says, there is “wide gap in the amount of household solid waste generated in the state as well as the amount of waste collected and disposed of scientifically”, adding, “Due to the urbanization in big cities, solid waste management requires advance planning and a lot of changes in budget provision.”

What happens because of “the use of polluted water in dry areas” and “lack of clean water” across the state, believes the document, is “diseases and other health problems” to human beings, on one hand, and adverse impact on “agriculture and animal husbandry”, on the other.

Talking of “lack of proper solid waste collection, treatment and disposal system”, the document says, the “frequent epidemics and other pollution problems” become worse because of of lack of public awareness.

Pointing towards “a lot of opposition from nearby residents/ public while selecting new sites for solid waste disposal”, the document says, there is a “need to work for economic benefit from proper collection of recyclable solid waste and compostable bio-degradable solid waste.”

Insisting on the “widespread need for low-cost sewage treatment plants”, which needs to be done after evaluating “treatment capacity with regard to domestic sewage generation in municipalities”, the document recommends, there should be provision of “severe penalties for violation of solid waste disposal regulations and for its effective implementation.”

Pointing out that “operational problems in most sewage treatment plants needs to addressed, the it says, there is “lack of proper operation and maintenance of” existing “sewage treatment plants”, which “leads to odour nuisance in surrounding areas.” Hence, it underscores, the “establishment of appropriate and adequate systems for re-use of treated sewage is a big question.”

Coming to industrial wastewater pollution, the document states, “The industrialization in the state and presence of multiple sectors of industries leads to generation of complex and high volume of industrial wastewater”, adding, “Small scale industries lack technical and financial capabilities for operation of treatment plants. Problem and recommendation.”

However, it is not just small industries which are a problem. The document does not spare even large industries. Thus, it says, there is “lack of technologies and technical manpower in treatment plants with regard to product diversification in large industries.”

This problem, it notes, is compounded by operational and maintenance problems in common effluent treatment plants (CETPs), where there is “lack of capacity and new technologies in existing treatment plants for disposal of wastewater arising from new products in member units of CETP.”

The document continues, “Lack of reuse system of treated industrial wastewater from CETPs leads to disposal issues”, adding, “Industrial wastewater management by zero liquid discharge units as compared to other units have higher economic burden”, which is caused by “lack of skilled workers in industrial units as well as in CETPs.”

Presence of multiple sectors of industries in Gujarat leads to generation of complex, high volume of industrial wastewater

Coming to problem of plastic pollution, the document claims, “Number of plastic waste recyclers is the highest in Gujarat as compared to other states”, but adding, for enhancing “plastic waste management”, there is a need for registration of plastic “producers, importers and brand owners as per plastic waste management rules”.

Further claiming that “plastic waste from paper mills in the state is used as alternate fuel in cement mills”, it says, “New innovative technology is requires for utilization of plastic waste in other industries.” Also, there is need for proper “disposal of plastic waste generated from metropolitan, municipal and rural areas in scientific manner”, as it too “is a big issue.”

Seeking to address hazardous waste, the document says, “There is a huge generation of hazardous waste in Gujarat”, pointing out, the problem becomes particularly sharp because of “wide variation in the type of hazardous wastes due to diversity in industries”, which add to “its collection, storage, treatment, reuse and disposal.”

Insisting on the need for “new technologies for cleaner production and use of cleaner technology in industries to reduce hazardous waste generation” as also “policy” for promoting “industries for scientific reuse of hazardous waste”, the document seeks “strict implementation of waste hierarchy by industries, treatment, storage, and disposal facility (TSDF) operators and regulators.”

However, it regrets, “In spite of proper landfill site design and operation”, issues like “air pollution, water pollution or structural stability incidents from existing landfill sites” occur. Hence, what is required is “land use plan for keeping distance of hazardous waste disposal sites from human population and other environmentally sensitive locations on permanent basis. Problem and recommendation.”

Commenting on air pollution in the state, the document says, “effective implementation of state level air pollution control action plan by every stakeholder” is required. It talks of “lack of participation and proper time-bound coordination and implementation by all concerned departments of the state for … the City Air Action Plan.”

Seeking mandate for the use of clean fuel or controlling the increasing number of vehicles, document wants “wider use of public transportation” for which “micro level planning” should be done “for air pollution control in big cities as well as industrial estates.” Also policy is required “to increase use of clean fuel in industries”, and monitoring and imposition of penalty should be done “for effective measures to prevent air pollution from building construction.”

Then, the document talks of the need for “preventive measures required to prevent accidental pollution in industries”, which requires “monitoring by authorities like the Directorate of Industrial Safety and Health (DISH) for proper safety measures to prevent air pollution and need to guide industries accordingly.”

Among the measures required include “green buffer zones to prevent air pollution and noise pollution” along “major roads, highways, railway lines etc.”, though regretting, there is “lack of adequate green buffer zone around industrial estates.”

Courtesy: https://www.counterview.net

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A recently-released 122 page government resolution (GR), which includes annexures, and whose copy is with Counterview, states, the stipend would be given to selected candidates for the Chief Minister’s fellowship programme, which would be identified as the Sardar Patel Good Governance CM Fellowship. The GR claims, “The aim and objective of this scheme is to channelise youth-energy (aged 35 or less) in holistic development of state and the nation”.

The GR states, after “careful consideration”, the government decided that in all “20 fellows will be appointed at the end of the selection process in the fellowship programme”, though not ruling out recruiting even more, underlining, “The actual need will be determined over time.”
As for remuneration, it would be “a monthly stipend of Rs 1,00,000 + Rs 10,000 leave travel allowance (LTA)”, the GR reveals, adding, the entire coordination of the programme would be carried out by the government’s top institute which offers refresher courses to all categories of officials, the Sardar Patel Institute of Public Administration (SPIPA), and under the General Administration Department (GAD), responsible for giving final touch to appointment and transfer of all categories of state babus.

A government source confirmed, the Gujarat government take-home salary for a newly-recruited class one official is “around Rs 90,000-95,000 per month”, which includes the basic pay, the dearness allowance and other payments which she or he is supposed to receive every month. “The senior-most class one official gets take home salary of about Rs 1.75 lakh per month”, the source added.

According to the GR, SPIPA would invite “online applications following principle of equal access, open competition and transparent selection by advertisement in a newspaper of wide repute”, adding, the selection would be done following a scrutiny of the applications first by a Scrutiny and Shortlisting Committee (SSC), then by a Selection Committee (SC), and finally by a Special Selection Committee (SSC).

The first layer of the selection committee would do its job on the basis of “the personal statement from candidates of at least six times the available seats”. The personal statement would be “evaluated by an expert at the Indian Institute of Management-Ahmedabad (IIM-A)”. This expert, it adds, would recommend a panel of at least three times of the number of seats.

While government officials from SPIPA and GAD would dominate in the each of the layers set up for the selection process, the final selection, GR states, would be the prerogative of the Special Selection Committee headed by additional chief secretary (ACS), GAD, who is one of the senior-most IAS bureaucrats of the Gujarat government, and consisting of other officials and a “nominated member either from IIM- A, Institute of Technology-Gandhinagar (IIT-G), or any other reputed institute.”

Says the GR, the process of selection would be based on not just on “personal statement” evaluated by the IIM-A expert (it would be given a 20% weightage). A far bigger weightage (40%) is to be given to “personal interview”.

However, the GR offers a loophole here, stating the rules may be relaxed; the evaluation may not necessarily involve an “outsider” from IIM-A or IIT-G or any other reputed institute. It underlines, “In certain exceptional cases and in the exigency of time and with full justification, selection can also be considered from a single source…”

To be recruited for one year and extendable for another year, the GR says, the continuation of the fellowship would be determined by mutual consent, and individual fellows would get a 10% increase in their stipend. Even here there is a loophole: It notes, whereas ever the Gujarat government is of the opinion that it is necessary or expedient to do so, there may be relaxation or modification in “any of the provisions…”

And what are these 20 (or more?) selected fellows are supposed to do? The appendix attached with the GR says, the fellows – to be attached with a government “mentor”, equipped with a personal laptop, and transport facilities in case of travel for project purpose – are supposed to “contribute to the enhancement of governance in the state of Gujarat by infusing innovative and effective approaches into policy-making and service delivery processes.”

To be selected for Chief Minister’s fellowship programme, the aim is to channelise youth energy in holistic development of state and nation

Further, the selected boys and girls would “serve as a catalyst for transformation within government departments promoting a culture of innovation, efficiency and excellence”, GR says, underlining, the fellows would serve as “advisory or professional” capacity, “providing expert or strategic advice” on “management, policy or communication”.

Further, it adds, their services would include “feasibility studies, project management, engineering services, architectural services, finance accounting and taxation services, training and development, etc.” — all of which would subject to strict “confidentiality laws and regulations applicable within the State of Gujarat.”

In fact, the fellows, according to the GR, are prohibited from “publishing a book or a compilation of articles or participate in TV/ radio broadcasts/social media or contribute an article or write a letter in any newspapers or periodical either in their own name or anonymously or pseudonymously in the name of any other person if such book, article, broadcast, or letter relates to subject matter assigned to them by the Government of Gujarat.”

While the minimum qualification for applying for the fellowship is graduation with 60% marks, and persons with higher qualifications, more experience and those from reputed institutes (IIT, IIM, Indian Institute of Science, All-India Institute of Medical Sciences, National Law University, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, Pusa) may be “preferred”, when contacted, a top state official told Counterview, “The fellowship is nothing but another BJP move amidst many to favour and reward those are from saffron outfits.”

The fellows, the GR notes, would be required to study, analyse and offer project reports on subjects which include implementation of the midday meal scheme; nutrition and health of anganwadi kids; wasting, stunting and malnutrition among school going children; health and nutrition of pregnant women and lactating mothers and children up to months of age, especially in the tribal blocks. advantages of fortified food, reduction in under-nutrition and nutritional anemia among adolescent girls.

Then, the fellows are supposed to organise rapid surveys on enrollment of students in science and mathematics stream at secondary/ higher secondary level; recycling of municipal waste, liquid and solid waste management; promotion of natural farming; enhancing irrigation capacity and optimal utilization of Narmada water resources; and tourism promotion of heritage, wildlife, beaches and religious sites.

Courtesy: https://www.counterview.net

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Surprisingly, the forest department of Gujarat has snatched away livelihood of more than 1,200 Agariyas or salt farmers by banning their entry into the Little Rann of Kutch. They all are part of communities consisting such as Chunvaliya Koli, Sandhi, Miyana, all de-notified tribes, mostly landless and dependent solely on salt harvesting for their bread and butter.

By not allowing them to enter the Little Rann, the forest department has pushed these communities further towards marginalization, and probably to hunger.

Gujarat produces above 76% of India’s total salt production. Agariyas, traditional salt farmers of Gujarat, have been harvesting salt in the Little Rann, which contributes around 20% of the total produce. They have a history of 600 years of salt harvesting in the Little Rann. Its evidence is well documented in historical documents like the Saurastra Gazettier and the Kathiyavad Sarva Sangrah.

Agariyas migrate to the Little Rann, along with their families in the month of September, and their farming season continues till April or May. The Little Rann is a 5,000 sq km area between Kutch, Patan, Morbi and Surendranagar districts which, turns into a water body for four months of the year and a mud dry desert for 8 months. Temperature during the day rises up to 50 degrees centigrade, while during night it falls to 4 or 5 degrees. They toil hard in scorching heat and shivering cold to add taste to our meal.

The Little Rann was declared Wild Ass Sanctuary in 1973. Wild asses have been conserved very well here, and its population has grown to over 6,000 in the past 50 years.

However, the government has failed to undertake survey and settlement of rights of the Agariyas and other communities as the per provision of the Wild Life Protection Act, because of which they is still termed as “illegal” encroachers and are given notices of eviction periodically. Such unrecognised status poses threat of eviction and loss of livelihood in the community.

Last year, the Agariyas were evicted from certain parts of the Little Rann. The sanctuary department declared that only those Agariyas whose name is included in the survey and settlement report would be allowed. That resulted is the exclusion of 90% of the traditional Agariyas.

The sanctuary department asked for documentary evidence of the possession of land. The fact that the Little Rann has always been an unsurveyed land, and even the government does not have revenue record of this area, was neglected while pressing Agariyas for producing documentary evidence of their ownership or possession of land.

A few months back, Agariyas across 4 districts and 7 talukas got together and made series of representations to their elected representatives and to the administration at district and state levels. They started meeting their MLAs and the ministers concerned. They also made representations to the National Green Tribunal (NGT) and the High Court, where cases regarding the Little Rann were being heard.

Finally, on the 4th of September 2023, a decision was made by the state, that all traditional Agariyas would be allowed to continue salt harvesting upon simple registration, the verification of which would be done during on-site survey. It was also decided that the survey and settlement process list would be revised by doing on-site survey so that seasonal user rights were recognised on a permanent basis.

The registration process was done in all the blocks, and in September many Agariyas moved to the Little Rann. Surprisingly, for no reason, the Agariyas from Santalpur and Adesar areas were asked not to go the Little Rann and were told that their decision would be taken soon.

“The forest department told us that they need some time to verify and finalize the list … thus we were waiting. However, the forest department has still not allowing us to enter the Rann areas. We do not have any other source of livelihood and today sit ideal at home,” says Narubhai Koli from the Santalpur Rann.

“While our fellow Agariyas in Dhangadhra, Patadi, Halvad, Maliya, blocke have already moved into the Rann two months back and their salt harvesting has started, we are not allowed to even make our salt farms ready. When decision was done for the entire Little Rann, we do not understand why such discrimination is done only with us?” he asserts.

Narubhai is farming salt since 6 generations and is disappointed with such dual and selective approach of the government. He adds, “We have been making repeated representations to both our MLA as well as to the forest department. However, they even refuse to give us anything in writing on the reason for refusal of entry.”

Another traditional Agariya Sultanbhai narrates, “When asked under the Right to Information (RTI) for transferring application from the state to the district forest officer (DFO), the latter declared that the decision for Santalpur and Adesar is completely in the hands of Gandhinagar officials.”

“So our request is toggling between the Dhrangadhra DFO office and the principal chief conservator of forest’s (PCCF’s) office, Gandhinagar”, he adds.

With no other optional left, the Agariyas are now planning to go on protest before the forest department, Gandhinagar.

*Agariya Heetrakshak Manch

Courtesy: CounterView

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