Price tags are seen on the bags of pulses that are kept on display for sale outside a shop at a market in Mumbai, India January 31, 2017.

 
In many state-regulated agricultural markets of major tur-producing states such as Maharashtra and Karnataka, prices have fallen to Rs 4,000 per quintal in some markets, 20% below the minimum support price (MSP) of Rs 5,050 per quintal (including a bonus of Rs 425) since December 2016.
 
A ban on exports, restrictions on stocking by private agencies in a bumper-crop year and absence of futures trading in agricultural commodities have been cited as key reasons for pulses to follow “the usual roller-coaster of high and low prices” in consecutive years, according to this article by Ashok Gulati, Infosys Chair professor for agriculture at Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, on March 15, 2017, in The Indian Express.
 
Markets proved us wrong, and here’s why
 
After two consecutive drought years, a good monsoon prevailed in most parts of India in 2016, barring some districts of Punjab, Haryana, Kerala and Gujarat, among the major states.
 
The situation turned after a good monsoon, even as IndiaSpend reported in October 2015 that a perfect storm around tur dal–monsoon failures, insufficient MSP, poor yield per hectare of dal and growing public preference to opt for eggs and meat for proteins–would keep its price high for a long time.
 
Monsoon in 2016 turned out to be above normal in Maharashtra, productivity increased from about 360 kg/ha to 760 kg/ha and farmers planted dal on record area ever, since the previous year, 2015, fetched them record prices at above Rs 100/kg.
 

Source: Retail Prices Management System, Department of Agriculture
 
Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana and Gujarat are the major tur-producing states. Rural district markets connect with farmers directly and consumers indirectly, since they involve intermediaries. At large consumer markets in cities, such as Mumbai and Ahmedabad, pulses from district markets are sold to retailers and consumers.
 
Tur arrival at district markets can, thus, track the price farmers get.
 
The wholesale price in major district markets–Amravati, Gulbarga, Vadodara and Narsinghpur–in the four major tur-producing states surged in 2015 and saw an almost equal or worse decline in 2016.
 

Source: AgMarkNet; Prices in Rs per quintal
 
Why have prices bottomed out? Answer: No exports allowed, no futures trading
 
Supply fell in 2015, reducing dal in the market, compared to 2014. Traders paid farmers more than Rs 100/kg for tur—a record—and middlemen and retailers increased the price to Rs 180/kg in grocery shops.
 
In 2016, the sowing area of tur in Maharashtra increased 25% to 1.53
million hectare but production is estimated to have increased 160%, from 444,000 tonne in 2015-16 to 1.17 million tonne in 2016-17.
 

Source: Agriculture Department, Government of Maharashtra
 
A sowing area of 1.54 million hectare produced 1.17 million tonne of tur in Maharashtra–25% of India’s production of 4.2 million tonne–but productivity, or produce per unit area, fell 18% short of the best it had achieved in 2007-08.
 
So, in 2016-17, the market is awash in dal, and traders are buying it from farmers at prices below the MSP.
 
To reduce the impact of the supply glut on farmers, the central government increased the buffer stock–produce that government buys directly from the farmer as a safety measure for farmers as well as market availability–for pulses ten-fold, from 0.2 million tonne to two million tonne.
 
Numbers don’t reveal what’s happening to farmers
 
Although the buffer stock has been increased, government agencies are not ready to stockpile pulses because storage space is limited, as is evident in Parbhani district, Maharashtra.
 
“Farmers with tur have been waiting at the district procurement centre of Food Corporation of India for more than a week as the centre is running out of space,” a regional agricultural officer, who did not wish to be named, told IndiaSpend.
 
“They will get a better price (MSP) at the centre, but the tractor with tur costs them around Rs 800/day, which is effectively reducing the price from MSP to the market price of around Rs 4,000 per quintal,” he said.
 
In Karnataka, the southwest monsoon (June-September) was 20% deficient in the south-interior subdivision while the northeast monsoon (October-December) was 70% deficient statewide.  Reservoirs in the state are 37% lower than normal in a state that is facing its worst drought in four decades.
 
Karnataka’s water shortage has imperilled the summer and winter (kharif and rabi) crops. The state government has responded with a special state bonus of Rs 450 per quintal, taking the procurement price of tur to Rs 5,500 per quintal, the highest ever by any state.
 
Government buyouts of pulses alone will not save the farmer
 
Not just government support, but having a sound marketing policy is equally important, Gulati argued in his article, a view he expressed in August 2016 as well in The Indian Express.
 
“Farmers should take planting decisions based on likely future prices and not last year’s market prices,” his March 2017 column said.
 
If farmers knew from futures prices that they would be paid below the MSP this season, they could have opted for cotton, which saw a reduction in area sown.
 
Pulses exports were banned in 2006, when record exports of 0.5 million tonne in 2005 aggravated domestic shortfalls. The ban has not been lifted, with some exceptions. Exports are about 1% of total domestic production, according to government data.
 
The pulses shortage in 2015-16 saw imports rise to 5.8 million tonne, or a third of the production. In the oversupply year of 2016-17, exports remained banned.
 
Even when Indian farmers are getting less than Rs 4,000 per quintal in domestic markets, pulses are still being imported at a price above Rs 10,000 per quintal, Mallikarjun Kharge, leader of the Congress parliamentary party said in Lok Sabha (lower house of Parliament), the Business Standard reported on March 21, 2017.
 
A government committee headed by chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian recommended in September 2016 that the MSP for tur should be increased to Rs 6,000 per quintal in 2017 and Rs 7,000 per quintal in 2018.
 
(Waghmare is a Mumbai based researcher and a contributor to IndiaSpend)

Courtesy: India Spend
 

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The data do not cover all transactions across all banks. But, card payments data for four major banks, mobile banking figures for five banks and prepaid payment instruments (PPI, meaning mobile payment gateways such as PayTM and FreeCharge) data for eight non-bank issuers have been considered as representative for analysing trends in payments.

Source: Reserve Bank of India
 
Digital transactions (volume) had increased 42% from 672 million in November 2016 to 958 million in December 2016 but have since declined 20% over two months to 763 million in February 2017.
 
This puts in peril the government’s target to achieve 25 billion digital transactions in 2017-18, which translates to at least 2 billion transactions per month. The February 2017 figure of 763 million transactions falls 60% short of the monthly requirement.
 
“The continuance of that high growth with a further pick up in some components (of digital payments) (sic) from November to January 2017 was a positive fallout of demonetisation. However, the pace of growth moderated somewhat in February 2017,” the RBI noted in its first assessment of demonetisation, Macroeconomic Impact of Demonetisation- A Preliminary Assessment.
 
Nine of 11 digital platforms show decline
 
Prime Minister Narendra Modi—whose narrative of development earned Bharatiya Janata Party a landslide mandate in the 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly polls —changed his demonetisation narrative from black money and fake currency initially to digital/cashless economy later, IndiaSpend reported in December 2017.
 
Only two payment platforms, Unified Payments Interface (UPI) and Aadhaar Enabled Payments System (AEPS), show a consistent rise in value (in Rupees) and volume (number) of transactions post demonetisation. All other forms have shown a decline–either consistently or in one or two months in the four-month period.  
 
While UPI links mobile applications to a person’s bank account directly, AEPS is an Aadhaar-linked biometric identification system used for direct cash transfers under government schemes.
 

Source: Reserve Bank of India, National Payments Corporation of India
Note: (1) Figures are negligible, so units have been changed.  (2) Card transactions of four banks. (3) PPI issued by 8 non-bank issuers for goods and services transactions only. (4) Mobile Banking figures are taken from 5 banks. The total volume & value of electronic payment systems does not include mobile banking.

“Digital cannot substitute cash. The share of digital among transactions might increase in the long run but cash is affordable,” Rajeswari Sengupta, economics professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, told IndiaSpend.
 
“Digital transactions demand a person to buy a smartphone and spend on data, which incur higher cost per transaction. People naturally prefer cash where the cost is borne by the government.”
 
Use of online banking using the National Electronic Funds Transfer (NEFT) platform reduced consecutively in January and February 2017, while that of Immediate Payment System (IMPS) increased in December 2016 and January 2017 but declined in February.
 
“The catalytic push from demonetisation hastened migration towards digital payments in November and December 2016. However, ease in availability of cash by progressive remonetisation impacted the pace of growth of digitalisation in February 2017,” the RBI assessment said.
 
Debit and credit card transactions for four major banks show little difference between November 2016 and February 2017–205 million swipes transacting Rs 35,200 crore in November 2016 to 212 million swipes transacting Rs 39,200 crore in February 2017.
 
“As the cash in circulation will settle to a lower normal than the pre-demonetisation levels, digital payments will settle at a higher normal and continue its upward trend as before,” Sangram Singh, head of cards and payments, Axis Bank, told IndiaSpend.
 
Card transactions improved to 311 million swipes transacting Rs 52,000 crore in December 2016, showing a 50% rise in transactions and 48% rise in value transacted over a month.
 
But the pace of addition in debit and credit cards has not been matched by an equal focus on point of sale (PoS) terminals.
 
“..in comparison to the 800 million cards that have been issued as of now, the number of PoS terminals has not been really adequate,” RBI deputy governor R. Gandhi said in a February 2017 speech.
 
High capital and operational expenses have deterred the expansion of PoS infrastructure, Gandhi said later in his speech.
 
Cash available with people, which reduced from Rs 17 lakh crore just before the demonetisation announcement to the lowest post-demonetisation level of Rs 7.81 lakh crore ($ 118 billion) on December 9, 2016, increased to Rs 11.74 lakh crore ($ 178 billion) on March 3, 2017, according to Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data.
 
“Remonetisation is taking place at a very fast pace. We have some way to go but I think we expect that within two to three months, we will reach full currency in circulation,” RBI deputy governor Viral Acharya was quoted in this Mint article on March 6, 2017.
 
The prime minister had announced the world’s biggest currency swap programme that scrapped 86% of high denomination Indian currency on November 8, 2016.
 

Source: Weekly Statistical Supplements, Reserve Bank of India; figures in Rs lakh crore
 
The current level of currency with people matches the November 2013 level of Rs 12 lakh crore ($200 billion at the then prevailing exchange rate of Rs 60 per US$).
 
(Waghmare is an analyst with IndiaSpend.)

Courtesy: India Spend
 

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Over eight years, he remained semi-literate, but he learned the fine art of creating new shoe designs from photos, making sure the shoes would fit, last and be comfortable. But his skills did not change his status as a casual worker with no medical or other benefits and no prospect of pension. As Hussain came of age working with cow hides, Kanpur’s once booming leather economy began to shrink, pushed to the edge by falling global demand, environmental regulations and contemporary cow politics.
 
Three years ago, with no prospects of a better life or a pay hike, Hussain and five friends from his mohalla (neighbourhood) quit the only job they knew. He drives an autorickshaw today; the others run roadside snack stalls.
 
In the 1990s, Kanpur’s leather industry employed a million workers (there are no official data), according to IndiaSpend’s inquiries with the government and leather-industry representatives. With 176 of 400 leather tanning units shutting over 10 years, according to a joint secretary–who requested anonymity since he is not authorised to talk to the media–in UP’s industries department, that number has halved.
 
But earnings from the auto were irregular, from Rs 15,000 to Rs 20,000 a month. So, Hussain is about to begin a job designing and fixing ‘uppers’ (the upper part of a shoe that contains the tongue) at a shoe factory in NOIDA, located in UP but an extension of the metropolitan region of Delhi, India’s richest province, by per capita income.
 
“They are giving me Rs 12,000 a month but the working conditions are good,” he said, describing how he would work in an air conditioned workplace, be given a managerial task, monitoring the supply line, and stand a better chance to get married.
 
“Kab tak auto chalaunga. Long-term mein thoda standard job chahiye na? (How long will I drive an auto to make a living? In the long term, I need a job of some standard, don’t I?)” said Hussain.
 
Hussain’s story is common enough in UP, a state with about 70 million unemployed young people, aged 15 to 34, comprising a fourth of jobless Indians. UP’s median age is is 23, the least in India, and jobs–as the findings of a poll commissioned by IndiaSpend reported on February 6, 2017–are this election’s leading issue.
 
The decline of UP’s industrial powerhouse offer clues to its future
 
To understand why UP–a state with 138 million voters–cannot offer gainful employment to young people like Hussain, we looked for answers in the decline of Kanpur’s leading industry, leather and leather products.
 
Kanpur’s financial wellbeing is important to UP. The district that houses the city and its industrial areas contributed Rs 19,000 crore–or 4%–to the state’s gross domestic product of Rs 4.6 lakh crore ($ 75 million) in 2013-14, according to UP government data. This is the fourth-highest contribution by a single district–the differences between the top four are slender–along with Agra, Lucknow and Gautam Buddha Nagar (which includes NOIDA).
 
With 2% of UP’s population, Kanpur employs 6% of UP’s urban workforce, according to the sixth economic census, 2012-13. Only NOIDA generates more jobs–it employs about 10% of UP’s urban working population.
 
UP has 16% of India’s working youth (15-34), and 20% of its child population (5-14), which will join the job market over the next decade. About 45% of voters are below 35 years of age, according to data estimate from UP Chief Electoral Officer’s website, highest proportion in India, alongwith Bihar.
 
The future for these children is not good. Like Hussain, nine in every 100 students in UP leave school before completing class IV, the highest primary school dropout rate among India’s large states, according to 2015-16 district information system of education data. It has one teacher per 39 school students, as IndiaSpend reported on January 5, the worst in India, and the lowest enrolment rate among large states.
 
To the ranks of 70 million semi-educated youth, this means, will be added more semi-educated youth. And, if Kanpur’s economy is any indication, even casual, semi-industrial jobs once available to people like Hussain may no longer exist.
 
How Kanpur’s leather industry lost its shine
 
Called ‘Cawnpore’ during the Raj, Kanpur was once among India’s leading cities. It ran its first electric tram in 1907, the same year as what was once Bombay, and seven years after trams were first introduced in Kolkata.
 
The first textile company—Elgin Mills—was started here, five years after the revolt of 1857, paving way for nine textile companies before the start of the 20th century, making Kanpur northern India’s biggest industrial city.
 
Post-independence, most large Kanpur industries hit a growth block. The textile mills went into decline, after nationalisation in the 1970s. The other big Kanpur brand, Lal Imli blankets, set up by British India Corporation in 1876, also died a slow death post-nationalisation. It was leather that led the revival of Kanpur’s manufacturing sector in the 1980s.
 
The district is still the leading producer of leather and leather goods—predominantly footwear—with a quarter (268) of India’s footwear factories. Footwear exports form 40% of India’s leather exports and a third of India’s leather (and leather-product) exports go from Kanpur. Multiple regions in Tamil Nadu together contribute to 34% of these exports.
 
But Kanpur’s leather industry, as we said, is now in such a state of distress that large-scale migration is now evident, as the city’s population growth-rate drops.
 

Figures in %; Note: GBNagar = Gautam Buddha Nagar, includes NOIDA
Source: Census of India
 
UP’s population grew 20% over the decade ended 2011, and while other large and growing UP cities, such as Lucknow, Agra and Meerut stayed close to this number, Kanpur’s growth rate fell to 9%, after seven decades of a 20% increase. Noida grew at over 40%, indicating rapid urbanisation and development.
 
Fall in global demand hit Kanpur the hardest
 
Global demand for leather, mainly from advanced economies, fell after 2014. This can be traced to the slowing of European economies and China. Leather exports from India fell by 4% in 2015-16 after growing over six years, but exports from Kanpur declined 11% over the same period.
 
Data obtained from Central Regional Office of Council of Leather Exports, Kanpur
 
Kanpur suffered especially in the footwear components and finished leather goods category. Saddlery–the leather gear used in horse-riding–is exported almost exclusively from Kanpur and its demand did not suffer, but did stagnate.
 
“Leather and products demand from the European Union has contracted in the past couple of years,” said Ali Ahmed, regional director (central region, Kanpur) of Council of Leather Exports.
 
Industry struggles to comply with green rules
 
Environmental regulations imposed on tanneries have crimped industry finances. The establishment of National Green Tribunal (NGT) in 2010 and its rigorous monitoring of pollution levels led to 128 of Kanpur’s 400 tanneries shutting. There are also at least 500 cases against other leather units in the principal bench of the NGT, as it records archive indicates.
 
“The tanning industry is known to be very polluting, especially through effluents high in organic and inorganic dissolved and suspended solids content,” noted this 2007 report. “A significant part of the chemical used in the leather processing is not actually absorbed in the process but is discharged into the environment.”  
 
Cow politics now impacts the flow of raw material
 
Before 2014, about 1,000 cattle were brought to Kanpur’s largest abbatoir. Last year, after three years of political heat and emboldened Hindu vigilantism, this dropped to 500 and post-notebandi–as the scrapping of 86% of bank notes, by value, is termed colloquially–the number fell to less than 100, industry representatives told IndiaSpend on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the issue. The numbers are now rising, slowly.
 
“Cattle, which are now become a liability to farmers, run about 10 industries,” said Taj Alam, vice president of Uttar Pradesh Leather Industries Association. These industries include pharmaceuticals where gelatin prepared from hoofs, horns and the insides of hides are used, soaps where animal fat is used, upholstery where hair is used.
 
No place for the small entrepreneur
 
Worst impacted by the slowdown are small-scale leather shoemakers.
 
“Leather now represents the expensive segment in fashion merchandise,” said Mohammed Raees, a footwear maker in Begumganj, Kanpur’s traditional small-scale footwear hub. “Cheaper footwear and ladies’ purses can be produced using newly developed polymers, which people can afford and prefer as well.”
 
Begumganj and adjoining Chamanganj housed at least 1,000 household leather factories, according to local residents. These small businessmen had to adapt with changing market preferences. “Indians now demand cheaper stuff for regular use,” said Ahmed. “We had to change too.”
 
Guddu Mohammad, 50, a shoe worker, and his four associates work as skilled artisans in the only surviving household shoe making factory in Begumganj. “There were thousands of such shops in my childhood in Kanpur,” he recalled. “The large-industry revolution, which swallowed small shoemakers like us, could not accommodate all of us skilled workers.”
 
(Waghmare is an analyst with IndiaSpend.)

Courtesy: India Spend
 

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Power looms in Bhiwandi, Maharashtra, that have not been operational for six months now.

Since the turn of the century, Bhiwandi, 30 km north of Mumbai, has wilted against competition from Bangladesh and Vietnam. Bhiwandi holds more than a sixth of India’s 6.5 million power looms—machines that manufacture fabric from yarn—according to this April 2016 Economic & Political Weekly report. A congested city of about 1.5 million, it was once a key link in India’s cotton economy, which employs 25 million workers alone, the second-largest employer after agriculture, according to this 2015 government report.
 
Bhiwandi has now been further crippled by the aftermath of the November 8, 2016, scrapping of 86% of bank notes, by value. The Indian textile industry is already challenged by falling exports, low productivity and rising prices, IndiaSpend reported in July 2016.
 
“Notebandi ne humko paanch saal peeche fek diya (demonetisation threw us five years behind),” said Asad Farooqi, 65, a labour contractor who has been running more than 100 power looms for about 30 years.
 
In this industry where son tends to follow father, Asad’s son, Aftab, 34, remembered how they lived in prosperity in his childhood, and that earning Rs 20,000 for a consignment was very normal.
 
“Last month, we earned Rs 17,000 from all our looms business,” Aftab said, with a wry smile. The Rs 20,000 of 1996-97 would translate to about Rs 70,000 today, after factoring in an average inflation of 6.5%.
 
The textile industry, of which decentralised power looms and knitting are the largest components, contributes to 2% of India’s gross domestic product. Maharashtra, with more than 1.1 million power looms, is one of India’s largest power loom hubs, providing direct employment to a million people in Bhiwandi, Malegaon, Dhule, Sangli and Sholapur.
 
“Only 20% of these (Bhiwandi’s looms) are running today,” said Mannan Siddiqui, president of Bhiwandi Textile Mills Association, who has spearheaded the attempt to revive Bhiwandi’s looms over more than 20 years.
 
Malegaon, 270 km to Mumbai’s northeast, is similarly struggling to keep looms running, IndiaSpend reported in December 2016.
 
Bhiwandi is one of the key links in India’s textile supply chain–from farm to loom–that IndiaSpend visited to investigate the effects of notebandi. Although there are no consolidated data, we found production cuts, job losses and revenue declines in an already struggling sector.
 
Cash rules critical parts of this supply chain: from farmer to yarn factory to yarn trader to power loom cloth manufacturer to wholesaler to retailer to consumer. Dyers, zip-and-button fixers and daily workers who lift bales are some of the poorest in this chain and they appear to be the worst hit. We found some increased use of debit cards (among consumers) and export deals are largely made through bank transfers, but these were exceptions.
 
The textiles sector has been instrumental in creating mass employment, particularly for women, and has lifted millions out of poverty, as they moved out of farm jobs in many countries, including Bangladesh, Indonesia, Mauritius, Cambodia and Pakistan.
 

Source: International Trade Centre
 
Textiles were the largest creator of Indian formal-sector jobs, with 499,000 added over the last three years, IndiaSpend reported in July 2016. There is strong international evidence that exports help create additional jobs and push up wage and income growth.
 
India’s Textile Supply Chain
 

Source: Discussions with industry representatives

Note: Stages marked in bold are those IndiaSpend visited
 
THE MARKETS: Demand falls, marketing stalls
 
In Mangaldas market, the biggest textile market in Mumbai—a city once known for its textile mills and labour unions, both now relics of history—N Chandrakant said business was 20% less than normal for the winter-and-wedding-shopping season, which runs from November to February. There was no business in the first week of notebandi.
 

N Chandrakant said customers have stopped buying premium clothing while sales of low-end material have not been affected.
 
“Customers are buying simple, plain shirt material, and demand for luxury items has reduced,” said Chandrakant. “People are being economical.”
 
Kripesh Bhayani, a cloth-and-apparel retailer in the same market, is also a garment maker who runs 17 imported fabric-weaving machines in a Mumbai suburb. He said manufacturing was unaffected, but finishing of garments–such as fixing buttons and zips–had suffered. Bhayani outsources these jobs to household industries, which work on cash.
 

Kripesh Bhayani, a wholesale cloth seller, diversified to garment manufacturing on a small scale, but is still facing losses.
 
While the demand for garments has dropped 30%, wholesale demand has dropped 50%, merchants told us.
 
Mukesh Panchamatiya, a premium cloth retailer, was one of the few without complaints. “Apart from the immediate contraction in demand, we are more or less on track now,” he said. “Debit-card transactions now account for half of my sale.” Others were not as sanguine.
 

Mukesh Panchmatiya has seen increased transactions through debit cards while mobile payments are still not happening at his shop.
 
“Our market remains crowded the entire day during the November-to-February season,” said Bharat Thakkar, secretary of Mangaldas Market Cloth Merchants Association. “Sellers struggle to attend the flurry of customers. The relatively empty shops today tell you everything.”
 
The lack of Rs 500 notes was also a big problem, said Thakkar.
 
At Ahmedabad’s New Cloth Market, trade had fallen by 80%, according Rajesh Agarwal, secretary of the market association. He explained why 60 of his 80 embroidery workers had returned to their villages after notebandi: When sales dropped, his cash dried up–except exports, the revenues of which he received through a bank account–so he could not pay salaries. Workers, said Agarwal, preferred to go temporarily jobless than endure the hassle of opening accounts in already stressed banks.
 
“Slowing consumer spending has resulted in a slowdown in domestic demand for apparel and other end-products of textile industry in the immediate term as a fallout of demonetisation,” The Financial Express reported on December 3, 2016.
 
As a result, retailers cancelled their cloth orders from wholesale traders.
 
Wholesaler Sudhir Parekh explained how a boom at the start of November–when Diwali shopping season gives way to the winter-and-wedding-shopping season–collapsed after November 8.
 

Sudhir Parekh had bought cloth before the November 8 scrapping of high denomination notes, which is still with him, unsold.
 
“A lot of inventory that would have been sold by now is stockpiled at my shop,” said Parekh, who works from Mumbai’s Mulji Jetha wholesale cloth market. “My working capital is blocked—no retailer or garment maker is buying from me. My cloth, which is my working capital, is lying here, and there is no way I can purchase more from the textile mills. I am stuck.”
 
This part of the textile supply chain is all cash: Consumers pay cash to retailers, who pay cash to wholesalers because it is convenient. Wholesalers, who place large orders with textile mills and pay through cheques or bank transfers, are not presently doing that because of the shortage of cash, driven by the drying up of retail spending.
 
Further, using cash allows many retailers and wholesalers avoid a variety of taxes: With many transactions off the books, the volume of trade is hard to discern.
 
Parekh said he was ready to go cashless, but his ability to do so depended on retailers and customers to do so.
 
Cashless transactions, however, dominate the large-volume purchases of cloth that traders make from textile mills in Bhiwandi, Surat and Ahmedabad in Gujarat and Tirupur and Coimbatore in Tamil Nadu.
 
THE WORKERS: With business down, work is hard to find
 
In Bhiwandi, Suleiman Rahil and Syed Nasar Ali, both in their 40s, were doing nothing when we met them.
 
Both are loom workers who run five to six power looms, in whichever factory needs them. Both are from Pratapgarh district in Uttar Pradesh, and have five children each.
 
Rahil and Ali each earned Rs 15,000 a month before notebandi, they said. Their incomes are down by a third to about Rs 5,000 each, there is no work most days, and they spend their day looking for odd jobs, including in farms and other markets.
 
“Pehle jeb mein 400-500 rupaye hote the. Aaj chai paani mushkil ho gaya hai (We used to have Rs 500 in our pockets, but today, we think twice before having tea),” said Ali.
 
“How can a family with six children sustain itself on Rs 5,000 a month?” he asked.
 
Bhiwandi labour contractor Ashok Ahuja–who also owns about 60 struggling power looms–explained how half his workers, from various rural districts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal, left for their villages when work dried up.
 
Some have started returning. Ahuja restarted his looms in Bhiwandi on January 2, 2017, two months after he shut them down, right after wholesalers cancelled orders after demonetisation.
 
THE POWER LOOM OWNERS: Varying prices before notebandi, now made worse
 
In Bhiwandi, Siddiqui argued that China, Pakistan and Bangladesh’s policies have benefited their textile industry, while India’s have enfeebled power loom owners like him, who must deal with not just low demand but daily price variations of yarn–the chief raw material for power looms–over the last four years.
 
 
The cost of yarn–which he buys from Mumbai–varies intra-day, “like the stock market”, said Siddiqui, as yarn traders increase or reduce the price according to daily demand.
 
“On December 20, 2016, after recovering from the demonetisation impact, when we were thinking of starting some of our operations, the yarn was selling at Rs 156 per kg,” said labour contractor Ahuja. “On January 4, 2016, when we were hopeful (of restarting), the rate had shot up to Rs 178.”
 
When Siddiqui finally bought his yarn that day, it was Rs 200 per kg.
 
“About 10 kg of yarn is enough to produce 100 metres of gray fabric (the unprocessed fabric manufactured on a power loom), which typically sells at Rs 30 per metre,” said Siddiqui.
 

Mannan Siddiqui with gray fabric produced in his factory.
 
A 100-metre swathe of cloth fetched him Rs 3,000, of which Rs 2,000 went into buying yarn the day we visited. With the Rs 1,000 left, Siddiqui had to pay for workers, electricity and machine maintenance.
 
The fabric that Siddiqui sells at Rs 30 per metre, when dyed, painted and processed–outsourced–by processing factories, is valued at between Rs 150 and Rs 200 per metre at retail shops.
 
“So, who makes money?” he asked.
 
His business had been going through a critical “hand-to-mouth” situation even before notebandi. “Now,” he said, “notebandi has broken our spine.”
 
THE YARN MAKER: Exports save yarn industry–to some extent
 
The manufacture of yarn, the chief raw material in making cotton fabric, is perhaps the only stage in the textile supply chain least hit by demonetisation, because 33% of it is exported to other textile-making countries, such as China and Bangladesh. These deals are done through bank transfers.
 
Yarn companies supply their finished product only to traders, who sell the yarn to domestic cloth makers. These transactions involve intermediate traders who buy bulk both in cash and cheque, and sell it to retailers in cash. Companies from Ahmedabad, Gujarat, and Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, said that there had been no major impact on sales since they sell to diverse buyers, including those abroad.
 
“After demonetisation, the overall demand has reduced, but our business is fairly undisturbed,” K Krishnamurthy, manager at Super spinning mills, Coimbatore, said over telephone. “In the textile supply chain, the first point, the farmer selling his produce to the ginning mill, and the last point, the retailer selling the garment to customer, happens solely in cash.”
 
“Along with farmers, businesses in the supply chain that work on a very small or household-scale have suffered the most due to the cash crunch,” said Krishnamurthy. “All the big orders have been affected only in volume, which will recover in the coming months.”
 
 
At the Pashupati spinning and ginning mill in Kadi, 50 km west of Ahmedabad, Gujarat, spindles weaving the string required for yarn did not take a break when we visited, producing 13,000 kg yarn every day, running 24 hours.
 

A spinning machine producing export-quality yarn in a factory in Kadi, 50 km from Ahmedabad, Gujarat.
 
“All the yarn we produce is exported, and notebandi has not affected us at all,” said A P Patel, managing director of the spinning division.
 
Yet, the ginning facility of the same mill–where cleaned, seed-free cotton is obtained from raw, impure cotton–was working at half its capacity. The slowdown between November and January was because cotton farmers were not accepting cashless payments.
 
“About 30 vehicles with cotton come to our mill every day,” said Mukesh Patel, who runs the ginning facility at Pashupati Mills. “On January 6, we had only five vehicles coming to sell cotton. The highest number we have seen after demonetisation is 15.”
 

A ginning unit (in the yarn factory in Kadi, Ahmedabad) has been shut as farmers were not accepting cheques for selling cotton.
 
“Farmers accept only cash as they have to pay their farm labour in cash,” said Patel. “Cashless does not work there.”
 
“The announcement of demonetisation on November 8 has delayed cotton arrivals in the market due to the widespread prevalence of cash payments to farmers,” said this December 2016 report by ICRA, a research agency.
 
THE FARMER: Long waits for cash, which is required for farm labour
 
Outside Pashupati Mills, Vasudevbhai Chavda, a farmer who had sold his cotton to the mill, had waited for two days to collect his payment, in cash.
 
He explained why he would not accept a cheque.
 
“A cheque takes more than a week in my co-operative bank to be realised, and only then can I withdraw the cash,” said Chavda. “Farm labourers who work with me will stop coming if I pay them in cheque, and I cannot risk that. They don’t have bank accounts, so there is no question (of not paying cash).”
 
Patel is worried as his factory, which used to run 24 hours a day for four months, will now work only for 12 hours a day for eight months, since he will now receive cotton from farmers at a slow pace, over a longer period.
 
“My labour costs will be double this year, and my operational overheads will rise,” said Patel. “This year, we don’t have any option… do we?”
 
(Waghmare is an analyst with IndiaSpend.)

Courtesy: India Spend
 

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The retreating northeast monsoon—usually unnoticed in India owing to the singular importance of the larger southwest monsoon—in 2016 was the worst ever over the last 140 years, according to Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) records, since 1876.
 
“It is an unprecedented situation,” S. Panneerselvam, Professor and Head, Agro Climate Research Centre, Tamil Nadu Agriculture University, Coimbatore, told IndiaSpend. “It has severely affected 21 of 32 districts of Tamil Nadu.”  
 
“Tamil Nadu celebrates Pongal on January the 16th,” said Panneerselvam. “It is when the harvest begins, but the yield this time is going to be the worst the state will see.”
 
On January 5, 2017, reservoirs in Tamil Nadu were at less than 20% of their capacity, cited as the worst ever for the state.
 
Record-keeping began in 1871, but a worse northeast monsoon, which sweeps across Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, south interior Karnataka and Kerala, between October and December, was recorded in 1876, making 2016 the year of the second-worst monsoon in 145 years.
 
Overall, the northeast monsoon was 45% short of the average for this period, the state worst hit being Tamil Nadu, where rainfall for the season was 62% short of normal. Although the southwest monsoon–which waters the subcontinent between June and September–was classified as normal across India (3% below average), it was 19% deficient in Tamil Nadu.
 
Hit by shortages from both monsoons, Tamil Nadu, where the winter crop depends more on the northeast monsoon than in any other Indian state, reported a 33% drop in the winter sowing of rice, according to latest crop sowing situation report, updated weekly by the agriculture ministry.
 
More than 60% deficit in October-December rains in four states
 
The northeast monsoon becomes active after the southwest monsoon retreats from the subcontinent. While there is no specific date for the retreat of southwest and the onset of northeast monsoon, October is regarded as the starting period of the lesser monsoon.
 

Source: Monthly rainfall dataset, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
 
Apart from the two monsoons, Tamil Nadu also receives pre-monsoon rains, all important for agriculture.
 

Source: Weekly Weather Update, India Meteorological Department
 
Nagapattinam, Thiruvarur and Thanjavur were the worst hit districts in Tamil Nadu.
 
“There are 135,000 paddy farmers among the 175,000 lakh farmers in our district, Nagapattinam, which falls in the Cauvery delta. Half the farmers have sown the paddy crop, but less than 20% of the crop has crossed the flowering stage,” said J. Sekar, joint director of the agriculture department in the eastern coastal district of Nagapattinam. “Even this mature crop will yield nothing.”
 
“Under the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (prime minister’s crop insurance scheme), about 130,000 (95%) paddy farmers in the district are insured,” said Sekhar. His claim could not be independently verified. “A premium of about Rs 11 crore has been collected. This will provide a safety net to our farmers.”
 
The failure of the northeast monsoon was evident across the South except Telangana, where farming is mostly rain-fed and dependent on the southwest monsoon.
 
Reservoirs in–or nearing crisis–across the South
 
With the northeast monsoon failing and the southwest sketchy, reservoirs in the southern states are in crisis–or nearing one.
 
Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Kerala now report the highest deficits nationwide. Tamil Nadu reservoirs are 82% short of normal levels—the highest deficit in India currently—while those in Andhra Pradesh are 53% short, Karnataka 39% and Kerala 37%.
 

Source: Central Water Commission
 
Karnataka declared a drought in 22 districts and some additional talukas in October 2016; the state has received Rs 1,782 crore from the central government. All of Kerala has been declared drought hit.
 
As 2016 ended, South India’s combined reservoir levels were 34% of capacity, which is 22 percentage points less than 56%, the average water availability over the last 10 years.
 
In Tamil Nadu, a third of fields not sown
 
Tamil Nadu had targeted 14.5 lakh hectares under rice in 2016-17, according to the weekly sowing situation report dated January 6, 2017, of the agriculture ministry, more than any other state. But no more than 7.18 lakh hectares had been sown until January 5, 2017, which is 3.5 lakh hectares—or 33%–less than the five-year sowing average of 10.68 lakh hectares.
 
Compared to the first-week-of-January average of 17.28 lakh hectares of sowing, rice has been planted on 12.74 lakh hectares across India, leaving a deficit of 4.54 lakh hectares, or 26%.
 
“Less area coverage has been reported from the states of Tamil Nadu (3.50 lakh hectare), Andhra Pradesh (0.31 lakh hectare), Karnataka (0.15 lakh hectare), Telangana (0.13 lakh hectare), Assam (0.12 lakh hectare), Odisha (0.09 lakh hectare) and Kerala (0.09 lakh hectare),” said the government’s sowing report.
 
The lede of this story has been modified to update the death toll.
 
(Waghmare is an analyst with IndiaSpend.)

Courtesy: India Spend
 

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Put another way, one in six teaching positions in government schools is vacant, a collective shortage of a million teachers.
 
These figures represent average vacancies nationwide; some states have filled all posts; in some, more than half are vacant. States with lower literacy rates appear to have larger shortages of teachers. Up to 55% of India’s 260 million school children attend government schools, according to 2015-16 education data.
 
Among 36 states and union territories, Jharkhand has the most acute secondary school teacher shortage: 70% (38% for elementary school).
 
Half of all secondary school teacher posts in Uttar Pradesh are vacant, as are a third in Bihar and Gujarat.
 
The reasons for shortage of teachers are lack of regular recruitment, not clearing position, bungled deployment of teachers, lack of specialist teachers for certain subjects, and small schools, which cause available teachers to be thinly spread.
 
Of 6 million teaching positions in government schools nationwide, about 900,000 elementary school teaching positions and 100,000 in secondary school—put together, a million—are vacant.
 

 
The large Hindi speaking states—Bihar, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh, home to 333 million people—are collectively short of a quarter of the elementary and secondary school teachers they require.
 
Goa, Odisha and Sikkim have no vacant elementary teaching positions.
 
Assam, Himachal Pradesh and Maharashtra, with 3.9%, 3.9% and 2% vacant posts, are among larger states closest to having a full complement of secondary school teachers; Mizoram and Sikkim report no vacancies. In general, India’s Hindi speaking areas report the highest teaching vacancies.
 

The only Indian state with no teaching vacancies either in elementary or secondary schools is Sikkim.
 
Big cities and union territories from Hindi-speaking north India, such as the national capital region of Delhi and Chandigarh, mirror the teaching shortages of poorer Hindi areas; both cities are 25% short of teachers in government-run elementary schools.
 
(Waghmare is an analyst with IndiaSpend.)

Courtesy: India Spend
 

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In contrast, sectors like e-commerce and payment banks, payment gateways are set to gain as transactions using cashless methods will increase over the coming months, the Deloitte report said, emphasising that “the long-term outlook remains positive”.
 

Advertisement of an online payment gateway, PayTM, published on the front page of major newspapers on November 10, 2016
 
The lines to exchange defunct Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes grew across India, as fraying tempers and scuffles were reported.

Source: Indian Express.
 
The Prime Minister–who had promised working ATMs by day three–pleaded for 50 days to set the chaos right, and his government extended the validity of the old notes in select transactions for another 10 days.
 
While the short term impacts will be pronounced on the brick-and-mortar retail sector like kirana shops, vegetable and fruit vendors, long-term negative impacts on the real-estate sector are possible, the Deloitte report said.
 
“Overall, a likely negative impact on disposable income is expected along with disruption in the consumption patterns of the general populace,” said the report, which called demonetisation “arguably one of the most significant reform measures in its tenure” and “an expeditious move to boldly counter the black money and parallel economy”.
 
Others are not as optimistic. Demonetisation has perhaps “penalised” the entire informal sector and damaged it permanently”, especially the informal financial sector, which could account for a fourth of bank lending, or 26% of GDP, wrote Pronab Sen, country director of the India Central Programme of the International Growth Centre, a think tank.
 
“There is no doubt whatsoever that Mr. Modi has pulled off a major political and publicity coup and substantially enhanced his reputation as a muscular leader, but surely somebody needs to ask: at what price?” wrote Sen on November 14, 2016 in Ideas for India, an economics and policy portal.
 
Rs 14 lakh crore–or $217 billion, 86% of the value of Indian currency then in circulation–became useless from midnight of November 8, 2016, part of the government’s crackdown on black, or unaccounted, money, which accounts for about a fifth of the economy, as IndiaSpend reported on November 8, 2016.
 
Agriculture, under stress for two years, was forecast to grow 4%
 

Agricultural growth in India contracted 0.2% in 2014-15 and grew no more than 1.2% in 2015-16, largely because of back-to-back droughts.
 
Agriculture was expected to grow at 4% this year according to this October 2016 CRISIL report, but demonetisation is likely to dent that forecast. India is currently in the midst of the winter sowing season, but farmers are reported to be running out of cash to buy seeds.
 

Source: Key Economic Indicators, Office of the Economic Advisor
* Note: For 2016-17, number represents prospective growth figures.
 

Indian farmers expect a record harvest this year, as IndiaSpend reported in October 2016, but the rural economy–on which 800 million people, or 65% of India’s population, depend–is largely driven by cash. Farmers buy seeds, fertilisers and farm equipment in cash, pay their workers in cash, and traders and commission agents pay farmers in cash.
 

The shortage of cash is spreading anger in the countryside.
 
Informal economy has limited access to Internet, online payment
 
The informal economy—which presently employs more than 80% of India’s workforce—includes workers in small and medium industries, grocers, barbers, maids and others.
 
Roadside vendors, cab drivers, kirana stores and medical stores have stopped accepting Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes.
 
People who do not use debit or credit cards, access the internet or use mobile banking and e-wallets will be the worst hit, said the Deloitte report. India has about 700 million debit and 25 million credit cards, according to this Reserve Bank of India data; about 950 million people (78% of the population), do not have an internet connection.
 
The demonetisation-led slowdown may also impact a key economic driver, private consumption, the things that people buy.
 
Private consumption, as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) has been steadily rising over five years to 2015-16, according to data from the office of government’s economic advisor.
 
Source: Key Economic Indicators, Office of the Economic Advisor
Note: * Provisional estimates
 
E-commerce, payment companies to benefit
 
As e-commerce websites stop cash-on-delivery–the most favoured option for Indian online shoppers, comprising 80% of sales–and struggle to hand over to banks the money they collected after demonetisation, the report predicted a rebound that will benefit both the e-commerce industry and companies facilitating payments to it, such as payment gateway companies, payments banks and electronic money transfer portals.
 
Online transactions in India rose 40% in 2015, IndiaSpend reported on November 12, 2016.
 
Other possible impacts that the Deloitte report listed: a hit on foreign trade as the rupee currency appreciates; lower inflation and cheaper prices, especially in the real-estate sector.
 
Purchasing power of Indians in peril, says report
 
“As far as the real economy is concerned, there is going to be huge blow to purchasing power. All kinds of people who were accepting notes are going to refuse to accept the notes,” economics writer Swaminathan Anklesaria Aiyar, told the Economic Times.
 
“Domestically, there could be some turmoil as the effect will be disproportionately felt by the lower and upper income classes,” the Deloitte report said.

(Waghmare is an analyst with IndiaSpend.)

Courtesy: India Spend
 

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Datum 2: Currency in denominations of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 increased 50% over three years (from Rs 9.6 lakh crore in 2012-13 to Rs 14.1 lakh crore in 2015-16), according to RBI data, while India’s gross domestic product (GDP) increased 22%, and per capita income rose 18% over this period.
 
With the base created by bank accounts linked to Aadhaar, the national identification system, and the upcoming Unified Payments Interface, which will offer payments through mobile phones linked to bank accounts through a unique number, demonetisation will help speed the transition of a predominantly cash economy to a cashless one, Nandan Nilekani, former chairman, Unique Identification Authority of India, told Mint.
 
At the same time, the shadow economy–meaning people do not account for it and do not pay taxes on it–is about a quarter of India’s GDP, according to this 2016 note from the finance ministry. Only 1% of India’s population pay income tax, according to Income Tax department data.
 
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on November 8, 2016, announced a war on black money, declaring that two currency denominations Rs 500 and Rs 1,000–which constituted 85% of cash with Indians–were no longer legal tender. His intention was to have money earned legitimately but held in cash deposited in banks and unaccounted money rendered useless.
 
As banks reopened after a mandatory one-day closure on November 10, and ATMs reopened on November 11, Indians thronged them, mostly to deposit available money rather than withdraw it or exchange old notes, evident when IndiaSpend visited various banks in Mumbai and Delhi.

 
15 years ago, notes of Rs 100, Rs 50, Rs 20 and Rs 10 were 70% of the cash economy
 
It was in 2004-05 that the value of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes put together exceeded the value of all other denominations, namely Rs 100, Rs 50, Rs 20 and Rs 10.
 
In 2000-01, denominations other than Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 constituted 70% of the cash in the economy; they constitute 15% today. 

Source: Notes and coins circulation, Reserve Bank of India
 
The value of money made up by Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes went up from a quarter of cash in circulation in 2001 to 85% in 2016. 
 
The currency with people rose rapidly during the last three years–2013 to 2016–against deposits kept by people in banks, RBI data show.
 
From being almost equal in 2007, currency with Indians was 50% more than bank deposits in these three years. 

Source: Reserve Bank of India Bulletin

 
Rural bank branches rise 28%, rural ATMs 200% in 3 years
 
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government, in its first budget in 2014-15, announced the Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (Prime Minister Financial Inclusion Scheme) to boost financial inclusion in the country. As many as 250 million bank accounts have been opened in two years to 2016.
 
There are 132,834 bank branches in India, of which 38% (50,554) are rural, according to RBI data. Rural branches rose 28% from 39,368 in 2013 to 50,554 in 2016.
 
However, in the last two years, the rate of addition of rural bank branches has slowed down while the rate of addition of urban branches has remained fairly constant.
 
There is one bank branch per 10,000 Indians while there is one ATM per 5,000 Indians.
 
State Bank of India, the biggest bank in India, has close to 50,000 ATMs. The State Bank group—six banks under the State Bank banner—has more ATMs than all private bank ATMs put together across India.
 
Maharashtra, India’s most industrialised state, has the highest number of ATMs. But, the density of ATMs—machines per million population—which determines the ease with which people can access their money, is the highest in Tamil Nadu with more than 343 ATMs per million people.

 

Source: Reserve Bank of India
 
Maharashtra comes a distant fifth in ATM density amongst the big states in India with 208 ATMs per million. Bihar is worst among the big states with 74.
 
ATMs in rural areas have increased 200%—or tripled—in three years from June 2013 to June 2016 when the total number of ATMs rose by 75%. 

 
Source: Reserve Bank of India
 
The number of debit cards in India more than doubled between 2012 and 2016. Over the same period, point-of-sale or PoS machines—the credit/debit card-swiping machines in hotels and shopping malls—also more than doubled. 
 
All these have contributed not just to financial inclusion but also to making a gradual shift towards cashless economy, which reduces dependence on cash.
 
Online transactions through the National Electronic Fund Transfer—popularly known as NEFT—rose from Rs 4 lakh crore in 2009-10 to Rs 83 lakh crore in 2015-16, a 2000% rise. 

Source: Monthly Bulletin, Reserve Bank of India
 
Businesses that work on cash and credit are are in a dilemma after the currency shock. E-commerce firms have discontinued cash-on-delivery option, and daily sales have reduced, e-commerce experts told IndiaSpend.
 
(Waghmare is an analyst with IndiaSpend.)

Courtesy: IndiaSpend

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With 18 soldiers dying in a pre-dawn terrorist attack in North Kashmir’s Uri area on September 18, 2016, the army’s combat death toll in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) is 64 this year (until September 18), the highest since 2010, when 69 soldiers died, according to theSouth Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP).
 
In contrast, civilian casualties along the line of control (LoC)—the de facto border between India and Pakistan in J&K—in 2016 were the lowest in three decades, SATP data reveal. About 800 civilians died every year, on average, between 1990 and 2007.
 

Source: South Asia Terrorism Portal *Note: Upto September 18, 2016
 
Over the last three decades, the 20-year period between 1990 and 2010 was the most violent, while the period after 2011 relatively more peaceful, according to the SATP data.
 
The year 2012, when 16 civilians and 17 soldiers died, was the most peaceful. After that, the death toll rose.
 

Source: South Asia Terrorism Portal *Note: Upto September 18, 2016
 
A series of infiltration attempts along the LoC were stopped this year, which has seen a “marked increase” over the previous three years, according to an army statement.
 
As many as 31 terrorists were killed along the line of control this year in the course of 17 infiltration attempts stopped by the army, the statement said.
 

Source: Indian Army *Note: Upto August 3, 2016
 
Ceasefire violations along the LoC and the international border—which runs south of the LoC beyond J&K—peaked in 2014 and 2015, IndiaSpend reported in August 2015 and April 2016.
 
Indians—while content with India’s foreign policy with regard to US, Russia and China—are unhappy with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s policy on Pakistan, according to a 2016research released on September 19, 2016, by Pew Global Research, a USA-based global research organisation.
 
With regard to security and road infrastructure along the international border in Jammu & Kashmir, 97% of a floodlit fence and 63% of planned roads have been completed, according to this August 2016 Rajya Sabha reply.
 
(Waghmare is an analyst with IndiaSpend.)
 
This article was first published on India Spend
 

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More crime was reported in 2015 across India than in any year since 2005, when the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) started collating crime data from states.
 
The crime rate—crimes reported per 100,000 population—increased to 581 in 2014 and 582 in 2015 from 456 in 2005, new NCRB data show. It was around 570 in 2009 and 2010.
 
The same crime rate in 2014 and 2015 hid many increases and decreases in crimes reported.

 
In 2015 human trafficking increased 42%, enmity between different groups 26%, road rage 10%, forgery 23%, theft 6%.
 
Among crimes that reported a decrease were offences against the state, 17%, crimes against women 5%, dowry deaths 10% (still, 7,634 women died in 2015), husbands “showing cruelty towards wives” 8% and robbery 5%.
 

 
While rapes, murders and dacoities reduced, this did not appear to be for want of trying: Attempts to rape, attempt to murder and “making preparation and assembly for committing dacoity”, as the NCRB puts it, increased.
 

 
Uttar Pradesh records most crimes; Kerala has highest crime rate
 
Poll-bound Uttar Pradesh recorded 2.8 million crimes for a population of 200 million, more than any other state; the crime rate was India’s second highest: 1,293 per 100,000 population.
 
Kerala was second in crimes recorded–possibly an outcome of better reporting and registering—650,000; Kerala’s crime rate, 1,838 crimes per 100,000 population, three times the national average of 582 crimes per 100,000 people.
 
Tamil Nadu was third in crimes recorded, Chhattisgarh has India’s third-highest crime rate.
 

 
Bihar and Jharkhand reported a lower crime rate than other large states—possibly a consequence of low reporting and registration of crime—although they topped in riot cases.
 
Delhi reported the highest rate of rapes–23.7 per 100,000 population— followed by Chhattisgarh (12.2) and Madhya Pradesh (11.9). About 34,000 rapes were registered nationwide, with a rate of 5.7 rapes per 100,000 population.
 
Uttar Pradesh is the only state that reported rapes in police custody, 91.

 
(Waghmare is an analyst with IndiaSpend.)
 
Article was first published on India Spend

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