The disappearance of Gujarat’s cows in the past seventy years was detailed in the first part of this Investigation. Part II of this exclusive data-driven study reveals that during the census period 2012-2019, around 56.42 lakh males (bullocks) were culled and eliminated from the population illegally, which included 25.27 lakh native breed plus 31.15 lakhs crossbred males. Considering the 37.8 lakhs missing cows described in the earlier article, the Gujarat state, which claims to be a serious protector of cow progeny, failed to save 94.22 lakhs cattle with an average elimination rate of one lakh cattle every month. 

Is  the state not aware of this persistent culling that ahs resulted in these ‘disappearances’? 

Gujarat celebrated the 2005 Supreme Court judgement of imposing a total slaughter ban as a trend setter, but the analysis show that this amendment to the law, far from salvaging the bullocks, actually hastened their culling and elimination in substantial numbers, reflected in the drastic fall in male: female ratios.  During 1997, 2003 and 2007 censuses, the ratios were respectable 91:100, 85:100 and 79:100, but in the census of 2007, this ratio dropped by two-fold to 47:100. In 2019 it further declined by two-fold to 26:100.  Under the law, calves cannot be culled, but during the 2012 and 2019 census periods 19.65 lakhs and 26.54 lakh male calves went “missing”, which were almost three-times higher than the census period prior to the Supreme Court judgement.  From the census data it can be clearly construed that the Supreme Court judgement completely failed in its objective and actually proved to be anti-cattle.   This Investigation is scientific, based entirely on data collected from the five consecutive 1997-2019 Livestock Census’.

Gujarat’s farmers, burdened by an unrealistic law that does not recognise that economy drives the agrarian occupations, were forced to exercise their culling rights in defiance of the law, leading to the severe distortion of male to female ratios. This empirical investigation shows that, as against the state’s cow population of 76.26 lakhs in the 2019 census, the corresponding count for males was only 19.84 lakhs proving that 56.42 lakhs males went missing resulting in male: female ratio of 26: 100.  The data implies that the farmers reared only a quarter of born males and the rest were eliminated, illegally.  The data for the native breed bullocks shows that during 2012-2019 census period 25.27 lakh indigenous males were culled and eliminated illegally culminating in male to female ratio of 42:100.  The situation however is dismal among the crossbreds, as in the 2019 census, as against the cow population of 32.5 lakhs, the male population was barely 1.35 lakhs, which amounts to “missing” of 31.15 lakh males and a male to female ratio of 4:100!  It appears perplexing that the Gujarat farmers eliminated 96% crossbred males.  Surprisingly, in a reply to the RTI request, the state communicated its “ignorance” on the fate of the missing cattle.

Details of the Investigation

An investigation into the effectiveness and impact of any legislation is an integral part of assessing its quality and impact as also its objective achievements.  The states are expected to, and the court must insist on undertaking such studies, especially before the introduction of any major amendment.  In the case of cattle protection legislation, such a study is not only in the academic interest but has larger economic ramifications on the agrarian/farmers’ economy.  The Gujarat state has promulgated major, trend setting amendments to the Cattle Preservation Act over the last 70 years but has never undertaken any impact evaluation study to ascertain the effectiveness of such legislative policy.  Unfortunately, this law was always contested in the courts on the yardsticks of the rights of the butchers versus the utility of bovines to the farmers and the economy.  Emotional arguments overrode rationality. For this study I framed two leading questions for ascertaining responses:

(a) whether or if this legislation, 70 years on the statute books of the state, was actually successful in achieving the set objectives and

(b) Has the law impacted on the farmers culling behaviour and agrarian economics?

Introduction and Evolution:  The protection provided to the cows, calves and bulls in the legislation was accepted by all the stakeholders as a fait accompli without ever challenging its necessity, rationale and impact on the farmers, in the courts.  Belligerent efforts of the state to extend the protection to old unproductive bullock, however, was a major issue contested in the courts since 1950s.  Finally, the Supreme Court in its landmark judgement delivered in 2005 settled the issue by upholding the Gujarat’s amendment providing for a total ban on the slaughter of all classes of cattle. 

A supplementary objective of this study was to examine if the total slaughter ban judgement had any real impact on saving of bullocks and whether it has resulted in an increase in their population.  It may be argued that 15 years of a policy implementation is too short a period to evaluate field results, but in the case of Gujarat, facts suggest otherwise. Until 2005, various High Courts and the Supreme Court held ultra vires any ban on the slaughter of unproductive bullocks, but the Gujarat state implemented a total ban clandestinely.  In 1976, it issued a gazette notification under the Gujarat Essential Commodities and Cattle Control Act, and fixed a maximum bullocks slaughter quota for each district.  In 1989 a modified order was issued wherein the quota for Ahmedabad city was reduced from 363 bullocks per week to only 60 blocks per year.  As a result, in the entire state only around 85 aged bullocks per day were permitted for slaughter. 

In 2005, a revised Gujarat Essential Commodities and Cattle Control Act was promulgated under which again a notification was issued removing the bullock slaughter quota in the light of 2005 Supreme Court judgement but continued the aged unproductive buffalo slaughter quota, unaltered, without compensating for removal of the bullock quota. Thus, for the purpose of examining the effectiveness of the law, it is reasonable to assume that, in the state of Gujarat, a near-total ban has been invoked since 1976.  Forty years, amounting to two-cattle generations is a long enough a period for undertaking an empirical appraisal of this state’s cattle protection policy.

Methodology and criteria: In this article I present results of the census data analysis on male cattle growth for the periods, 1997-2003, 2003-2007, 2007-2012 and 2012-2019.  The census data for earlier periods is not available in the public domain.  The cattle population data was collated and analysed for growth employing the officially followed ‘static method’.  In addition, another accurate ‘exponential growth method’, explained in the earlier article, was also employed to understand the accurate growth in the male population.  Since, in Gujarat, neither male nor female cattle can be culled for slaughter the male to female population ratio should be equal (1:1).  In general, the farmers perceive that due to lack of a hump and sensitivity to the hot climate, crossbred males are not suitable for draft or agricultural work, hence their utility to the farmers is questionable.  In contrast, the indigenous breed bullocks are favoured for such work.  An analysis of cattle growth was therefore also carried out for both native and crossbred cattle. If the contention in the state’s affidavit in the Supreme Court that a large number of bullocks were needed by the farmers, was in fact, based on a truthful assessment of ground reality, the number of native males in the population should be equal to the number of native breed cows.  Similarly, if the state’s claim in the Supreme Court, that farmers did not consider aged unproductive bullock as a burden and each farmer reared at least one pair of such bullocks was true, the proportion of aged bullock population (aged more than 10-12 years) should be equal to number of farmers or 20-25% of the total population.

The Law Failed to Protect Male Cattle:  The data described in Table 1 portrays a shocking picture of a very low male population compared to the cow population.  As against the cow numbers of 76.26 lakhs, reported in the 2019 census, the males were only 19.84 lakhs, proving that around 56.76 lakh males were culled and eliminated illegally.  The male to female ratio of 26:100 implies that 75% males were culled and eliminated, although law did not permit.  The data on native breed vigorously negates the state’s Supreme Court affidavit on essentiality of bullocks to the farming and draft power.  If the claim was true, the farmers would not have rampantly culled male cattle.  Gujarat has been vocal on its’ promises to promote an indigenous breed of bovines.  The census data however proves that these utterances were only for public consumption and not matched by facts and figures from the ground.  In the 2019 census, there were 43.77 lakhs indigenous breed cows, whereas the male population was only 18.5 lakhs, which means 25.27 lakh male cattle went missing during the period.  In 1997 the working bullock population in the state was 25.85 lakhs which remained static until 2012 census, but in 2019 it declined by 43.5% to 14.61 lakhs.  The declining trend of working bullock does not require any explanation as it is now well known that farming in the state has become mechanized and the bullock cart days have given way to mechanized transport. The data proves that the state’s affidavit on the “requirement” of more than 10 million working bullocks was utterly false and meant to misguide the Supreme Court, possibly to ensure a favourable judgement.  Surprisingly, the Court did not ask for any more scientific evidence in support of all these claims. 

The state vehemently defended the argument that, cattle of any age and breed had high utility to the farmers, therefore could not be termed unproductive.  Although 42% of the native breed males were in existence because of their utility as draft beast, the crossbred males suffered heavily, in spite of promised protection in the law.  In 1997, 2003 and 2007 censuses, the M: F ratio remained static 23-24: 100, but the ratio dropped by half to 11:100 in 2012, whereas in 2019 it fell to all-time low of 4:100.  In 2019 census, as against the cow population of 32.5 lakhs, the male numbers dropped to only 1.35 lakhs which proves that around 31.15 lakh crossbred males went missing.   

Culling pressure on male calves:  From the census data it is also possible to deduce the age at which the farmers culled the males.  The Table 2 gives the data on the male and female calves (aged up to 3 / 2.5 years).  The Gujarat Cattle Preservation Act does permit culling of calves.  If there was no culling pressure, the sex ratio in the calves should be equal. The data in Table 2 however show that the M: F ratio in calves dropped from 55:100 in 1997 to 15: 100 in census 2019. The data implies that during 2012-2019 the farmers culled 26.54 lakhs male calves.  Here, it is assumed that there no female calves were culled, however, in the article I proved that the culling of female calves was also rampant.  It proves that irrespective of the age and breed, any cattle that was unwanted by farmers was eliminated from the population.  

The 2005 Supreme Court Judgement Proved to be Anti-Cattle:  The states’ goal of enhancing the bullock population by prohibiting the slaughter of 8000-9000 bullock, as per its affidavit in the Supreme Court, was a laughable rationale. The census data proves that the 2005 Supreme Court judgement impacted negatively on male cattle population in the state.  During 1997, 2003 and 2007 census, the overall M: F ratios were 91:100, 85:100 and 79:100, but in the 2012 census, it dropped to 47: 100 and in the 2019 census it further dropped to 26: 100.   In case of indigenous breed, during 1997 to 2007, the M: F ratios were respectable 90: 100, but in the 2012 census, it dropped to 60: 100 and in 2019 it further dropped to 42: 100.  The sex ratio in crossbred cattle was already low (20:100) during the 1997-2007 period, but in the 2012 census the ratio dropped by tenfold to 10:100 and in the 2019 census it crashed to all time low of 4:100.  During the pre-judgement period (1992-2007), the farmers culled around 45% male calves, but after the judgement, the farmers repudiated and increased the culling rate to 75% in 2012 and 85% in 2019.  This translated into culling of 19.65 lakhs and 26.54 lakh male calves in 2012 and 2019.  The data proves that post-Supreme Court judgement, the calf culling rate increased to almost three-times higher.  The working bullock population during 1997 to 2012 remained static and narrowly ranged between 24-26 lakhs, but in 2019 census the population declined significantly to 14.61 lakhs and proves that, instead of achieving the promised increase in the male population, the judgement impacted negatively and adversely affected the cattle wealth.  The above data underscores the interpretation that the 2005 Supreme Court judgement was a total failure as it was perceived to be overtly anti-farmer and impractical to implement.

Missing Bullocks based on Exponential Method: The above interpretations were based on the static data reported in the census reports, which grossly underestimates the growth as it does not take into account new calf births and culls due to natural deaths.  As per the method described in first part of this investigation, the expected population were estimated by considering the numbers of breeding females, the breeding cycles within the census periods and assuming equal male: female ratio.  The missing male cattle estimate was calculated after deducting the actual male population reported in the census from the project growth numbers.  The analysis shows that during the 2007-2012 and 2012-2019 periods, in fact an estimated 56.18 lakhs and 84.64 lakhs males went missing. If the numbers of missing cows are added to this, the size of the illegal cattle trade and the corruption dealings involved therein must run into several thousand crores.  This money belonged to the farmers, who must have been forced to part with the unwanted cattle earning pittance in return.    

In conclusion, the census data analysis explicates that the Gujarat’s farmers have rejected the Gujarat Animal Preservation Act because of which it has failed to achieve the set objective.  The farmers have, in fact, defied the law and culled 96% of the male crossbred and 60% of the indigenous male cattle.  The farmers’ culling behaviour has been in line with the rational and scientific husbandry practices followed globally.  The data also shows that the 2005-Supreme Court judgement has caused severe and negative impact as the rate of culling significantly accelerated after the implementation of the judgement.  It is estimated that this anti-farmer policy in 2012-2019 period must have caused a revenue loss of around Rs. 34,000 cores to the farmers as they could not monetize their agrarian operations by selling the excess cattle legally.  This means that it is a major policy failure with huge impact on the farmers’ economy. The state should appoint an ‘Inquiry Commission’ to investigate the fate of missing cattle, identify and punish the perpetrators who were involved in the illegal disposal.  The silence of the farmers should not be construed as their consent. This law requires an urgent review keeping the interests of farmers in mind.

In the next series the buffalo census data will be interpreted to show large scale illegal trade in culled buffaloes.  I will also prove that, contrary to the affidavit in the Supreme Court, the Gujarat dairy economy is buffalo -based and not cow.    

Part I of this Investigation was titled The Missing Cows of Gujarat – How Cow Protection Laws have failed to protect the animal in the state.

About the author: He has obtained Masters in Veterinary Science from Bombay Veterinary College and Ph.D. from Ontario Veterinary College, Guelph, Canada, under the Commonwealth Fellowship Program.  He was Dean of the Bombay Veterinary College, Faculty Dean and Director of Instruction at Maharashtra Animal and Fishery Science University.  He has more than 35 years of experience in veterinary research and has authored several original research articles and book chapters.  Both these investigations, Part I and II are excerpts from the authors’ forthcoming book.

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INVESTIGATION: The Missing Cows of Gujarat – How Cow Protection Laws have failed to protect the animal in the state

The post INVESTIGATION- Part II: Disappearing Bullocks, Missing Cows, how Gujarat’s Farmers dodge an impracticable Cow Protection Law appeared first on SabrangIndia.

Gujarat’s farmers, hindered by an unrealistic legislation steeped in rhetoric and a dishonest objective, are illegally culling and disposing off the bovine animals: a close scrutiny of the 2012 Livestock Census data figures on breeding cows and female calves, the expected population are revealing: whereas in 2019 the figures of cows in the state should have been 114.04 lakhs, in reality only 76.26 lakhs cows were reported in the census.  The data shows that around 37.78 lakh cows went missing during the period, which means these were illegally culled and disposed of by the farmers.   The missing cow phenomenon was not a one-time aberration but consistent. 

An In-depth Investigation

History of protection law: The state of Gujarat has been a torchbearer of the cow-protection movement right from the pre-independence period. Until 1976, the state of Gujarat followed the Bombay Cattle Preservation Act, 1954, later retitled Gujarat Cattle Preservation Act, 1976.  The original law protected cows, calves, adult useful males, whereas, the bullocks were permitted for slaughter after veterinary certification. In 1991 an amendment was inserted prohibiting slaughter of bullocks below 16 years of age.  In 1995, the law was further amended to ban slaughter of even aged bullocks. This was challenged and the Supreme Court in their historic judgement, delivered in 2005, upheld the total-ban on cattle slaughter.  Subsequently the state passed amendments to make the law for slaughter stricter with even harder punishments.

Evaluation and Methodology: Although the law has been implemented over the last 70 years, been amended and made more stringent, its efficacy has not been really put to the scrutiny of various courts.  The periodic evaluation of economically important policies and laws is an integral part of legislative quality assessment, but at no stage has the effectiveness, efficacy and impact of this Act given its ambitious target, been independently assessed or investigated.  Neither the court the state legislature has demanded rationally culled out information on the efficacy of the law given its stated goals which are the preservation of bovine life.

At periodic junctures, the state has enhanced the severity of punishment on those implicated in slaughter. However, this law was not truly invoked in its true spirit, scrutinising the role of farmers, given their primacy in rearing (or disposing of) unwanted cattle.

In this article I report results of a methodical quantitative study on the impact of the Gujarat Cattle Preservation Act on the state’s cow population. The cattle population data published in 1997, 2003, 2007, 2012 and 2019 livestock census reports have been analysed (www.dahd.nic.in/about-us/divisions/statistics).  The effectiveness was measured by quantifying the cow growth rates and population proportion rates, whereas the impact was measured by estimating the proportion of unproductive cow population.

For calculating the growth rates, the methods employed by the officialdom are deceptive. The official reports employed a static method wherein the net number of cows were counted and recorded during the two censuses periods, after which the data was compared.  This method was not a true estimate of the cow growth as it did not take into account any new births and culling. Since cattle growth is exponential and compounded, the correct method should have been to estimate the ‘expected population’.  Cow growth is a function of the number of breeding cows and the young replacement female calves and the rate will depend on fecundity parameters, hence understanding this process is critical.

To produce milk, a cow must deliver a calf, hence continuous calf births are inevitable additions in the population.  A crossbred cow calf will attain maturity and deliver its first calf by age 2.5-3.5 years, whereas an indigenous calf’s first calving age is reported to be at 3.5-4 years.  Each productive cow must deliver a calf at least every 16-18 months. 

The analysis of the census data from 1997-2019 shows that the breeding cow population in Gujarat narrowly varied between 40-45% of the total cow population. During the census period of five-six years a breeding cow would complete at least three breeding cycles (calving interval 20 months) adding three calves to the herd.  A female calf in the last census, would have attained maturity and completed an average of two breeding cycles by the next census. The number of young female calves is also reported in each census.  To give a simple example, if a farmer had one female calf and one breeding cow in his herd, in the next five-year census period his herd size would become seven (two old and five new), provided none had died or been culled and eliminated.  Using this exponential equation and considering equal sex ratio in the new births, the expected cow population has been estimated for each census period. 

For example, using the 1997 census, 80% of the breeding cow numbers and 80% of the female calves, the expected population for the census 2003 census was predicted, and so on.  A standard census is expected to be carried out every five years.  Since the 2003, 2007 and 2019 censuses were carried out after six, four and seven years, respectively, census, the number of the breeding cycles completed by the female calves and the breeding cows were correspondingly scaled down or upped.  Since in Gujarat the cow numbers could decline only from natural deaths, the expected population need to be adjusted assuming an overall mortality rate of 20% of the expected population (considering higher proportion of aged cows).

Missing Cows in Gujarat: From the data it is evident that there was a wide gap between the expected and the actual population. The estimate show that based on 2012 census data on breeding cows and female calves, the expected population in 2019 should have been 114.04 lakhs, whereas in reality only 76.26 lakhs cows were reported in the census.  The data shows that around 37.78 lakh cows went missing during the period, which means these were illegally culled and disposed of by farmers.   The missing cow phenomenon was not a one-time aberration but consistent as the missing cow proportions were very high during all the census periods studied. 

Another measure to evaluate efficacy and impact of the cow preservation law is to examine the proportion of aged unproductive cows.  In the census process this information is collected and published under the category, ‘Others’.  The lifespan of a cow is reported to be 20-22 years and average productive age 10-12 years. If the farmers were complying with the law and did not cull but reared even unproductive cows, its proportion should be 20-25 % of the total cow population. The Census, however throws a up a dismal picture. In the Gujarat state during the last 22 years, the aged cow population never exceeded 2.4% of the total cow population.   Comparing the unproductive cow population from 2007 to 2019 prove that much celebrated landmark 2005 Supreme Court judgement banning total cattle slaughter which subsequently led to the passage of stringent laws did not reverse the trends.  Rather it had negative effects as the unproductive cow proportion fell from 1.95 % in 2007 to 0.85% in the 2019 census.  The severity of the unproductive cow culling can be measured from the data that in 2019 census, as against the cow population of 76.6 lakhs, only 0.51 lakhs were aged unproductive cows.  Since female calves and breeding cows are an economic asset, their numbers have shown an increasing trend.  The census data also showed that the proportionate rates of other cow categories (such as lactating, dry, infertile) had remained more or less stable, suggesting that the legislation did not result in any genetic improvement.  It is therefore almost certain that the farmers culled >90% of the unproductive cows, illegally. The results are in line with the common perception that, like any global farmer, the Gujarat farmers have understood economics and their decisions on culling and herd size restrictions are rational.  The results also show that there was zero compliance of the law and also debunks the state’s theory that the farmers in Gujarat respected cows beyond economics.

Conclusion: The data unequivocally establishes that even after 70 years of stringent implementation of cow protection laws, the law and subsequent amendments have been totally ineffective and failed to achieve the goal of protecting Gujarat’s cows. The RTI enquiries with the state Department of Animal Husbandry (dated July 12, 2020) did not elicit any explanation about the missing cows and their fate (vide their reply No. PVG/VHT/RTI/80/2020 dated August 4, 2020.  The analysis of the census data supports the apprehension that the true goal of the law was not to protect cows, but to target the beef trade and make it vulnerable to corruption to nurture through bribes a network of informal cow vigilante elements. It is very clear that the law has created a corrupt ecosystem wherein, the farmers are permitted to dispose their unwanted cows free from any fear of law; the meat traders are occasionally exposed to physical harm to create fear, to compel them to pay huge bribes to continue in the trade.  Unfortunately, the farmers do not realize that they are the ultimate losers, as neither have they been able to add cattle wealth nor were they able to legally monetise from the sale of unwanted cows.

In the next Part the Series, the author will debunk the Gujarat state’s hollow claim on the male cattle utility and preservation .

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About the author:

He obtained Masters in Veterinary Science from Bombay Veterinary College and Ph.D. from Ontario Veterinary College, Guelph, Canada, under the Commonwealth Fellowship Program.  He was Dean of the Bombay Veterinary College, Faculty Dean and Director of Instruction at Maharashtra Animal and Fishery Science University.  He has more than 35 years of experience in veterinary research and has authored several original research articles and book chapters.  

The post INVESTIGATION: The Missing Cows of Gujarat appeared first on SabrangIndia.