As soon as polling concluded for the last phase of the Assembly Elections in Uttar Pradesh on March 7, 2022, news media channels started releasing their Exit Poll results. But the truth often gets lost when big media networks, that rely heavily on advertising revenue and political patronage, engage in any high decibel news telecast about electoral predictions.

In a proto-fascist State, more often than not, the entire exercise of conducting an Exit Poll and revealing its results is reduced to just a charade by media houses who have proven time and again that they are happy to be the regime’s lapdogs. Their Exit Polls appear to be nothing more than a campaign to spread misinformation or gaslight viewers, just so the TRPs remain high and the unofficial bosses remain happy.

But sometimes, even news channels that have greater credibility owing to a proven track record of balanced and nuanced news coverage, also end up making genuine mistakes when it comes to predictions and calculations. But only a few have the courage and dignity to apologise. Bihar election predictions being a prime example.

With this in mind, let us take a deep dive into what different Exit Polls are saying about the outcome of the Assembly Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh. Some of the predictions are so divergent, that it makes one wonder if the polls are even referring to the same state!

While the veracity of all exit polls cannot be rejected outright, perhaps a closer look is mandated to ascertain ground realities. What can also not be ignored is the silence factor – when the respondent voter does not divulge that they have voted against the incumbent regime, out of fear of retaliation. It is noteworthy, that some political pundits have referred to it, but often to suggest that even the pro-regime voters are not divulging their vote. The reason for this though, is not clear.

Before the elections the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was in power in Goa, Manipur, Uttaranchal and Uttar Pradesh, while the Indian National Congress (INC) is the incumbent government in Punjab.

Goa (40 Assembly seats)

In Goa, the India Today – Axis My India Exit Poll predicts a hung Assembly. It gives the BJP 14-18 seats, and the INC 15-20 seats, with Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) likely to get 2-5 seats and the remaining 0-4 being lapped up by independents and others.

The ABP News – C Voter Exit Poll also makes similar predictions, saying no single party will get a majority. It gives the BJP 13-17 seats, the INC 12-16 seats and says that the Aam Admi Party (AAP) might end up getting 4-8 seats.

India TV meanwhile appears to be hedging its bets with two exit polls. While the India TV CNX exit poll says that the BJP will retain Goa with 16-22 seats, the channel’s second exit poll with Ground Zero Research predicts a comfortable majority for the Congress with 20-25 seats!

According to the Times Now-Veto Exit Poll, Congress might emerge as the single largest party with 16 seats, followed by BJP with 14. It gives AAP 4 seats and 6 to others.

Meanwhile, a lesser known Deshbandhu Exit Poll gives the BJP 7-11 seats, while it predicts that the INC could bag 21-25 emerging as the largest party, leaving others with 6-10 seats.

Interestingly the MGP, that is backed by the Trinamool Congress (TMC) is being touted by many to play kingmaker! Does this mean that Mamata Banerjee is all set to take the mantle of “Remote Control” from the Late Balasaheb Thackeray?

Manipur (60 Assembly seats)

When it comes to Manipur, almost all polls predict a victory for the BJP. The India Today – Axis My India Exit Poll says that the BJP is likely to get 33-43 seats, with the INC, National People’s Party (NPP) and the Naga People’s Front (NPF) all likely to get between 4-8 seats. Yet others could get anywhere between 0-7 seats.

India TV – Ground Zero Exit Poll too predicts a “thumping victory” for the BJP saying it will win 26-31 seats, while the INC will get 12-16 seats. The Zee – Designboxed survey also gives the BJP an edge with 32-38 seats, giving the INC 12-17 seats, while the NPP is expected to win 2-4 seats, leaving 2-5 seats for the others.

The ABP News – C Voter Exit Poll, however, gives the BJP 23-27 seats, thus suggesting it will be the single largest party, but will not have a sweeping victory. It gives 12-16 seats to the INC, 10-14 seats to the NPP and 3-7 seats to the NPF. These leaves independents and others with 2-6 seats.                                                                                                                                              

Similarly, the Jan Ki Baat survey’s estimates also appear to be more conservative with the BJP is likely to win 23-28 seats, the Congress 10-14, NPP 7-8 and others 12-18. The CNX survey’s predictions are only marginally higher for the BJP giving it 26-31 seats. It predicts 12-17 for the Congress, 6-10 for the NPP and 7-12 for others.

But here too, Deshbandhu Exit Poll’s predictions differ from others. It gives the BJP 23-27 seats, and the INC 21-25 seats, leaving others with 10-14 seats. This suggests a closer contest between the BJP and INC, as opposed to how other exit polls have treated BJP’s victory here as a foregone conclusion.

Punjab (117 Assembly seats)

Almost all exit polls have predicted a clean sweep for the AAP in Punjab. The India Today – Axis My India Exit Poll says AAP could win as many as 76-90 seats, and predicted that the INC would get 19-31 seats.

The ABP News – C Voter Exit Poll gave AAP 51-61 seats, and gave the INC 22-28, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) 20-26 seats and the BJP a measly 7-13 seats.

However, according to India TV – Ground Zero Research Exit Poll, it is the INC that will emerge as the single largest party with 49-59 seats, with AAP trailing as the second best with 27-37 seats. It gave SAD+BSP 20-30 seats, the BJP 2-6 seats, leaving 1-3 seats for others.

Meanwhile, the Deshbandhu Exit Poll predicts the at INC will win 62-68 seats, leaving the BJP biting the dust with 2-8 seats. It gives the SAD 22-28 and AAP 17-23, while others could get 0-4 seats.

Uttarakhand (70 Assembly seats)

There aren’t many surprises for Uttarakhand either. The north Indian state that has seen a revolving door of Chief ministers and was the site of a deeply communal Dharm Sansad, could go either way if two of the main exit polls are to be believed.

According to India Today – Axis My India Exit Poll, BJP could get 36-46 seats, with INC trailing at a close second with 20-30 seats. While Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) could get 2-4 seats, others could end up with 2-5 seats.

According to the ABP – C Voter Exit Poll, it is the INC that will have an edge over the BJP. This poll says the INC could get as many as 32-38 seats, while BJP could get 26-32 seats. Debutante AAP could get 0-2 seats, while the BSP and others could get 3-7 seats.

Interestingly, according to India TV-Ground Zero Research Exit Poll, the INC could get a comfortable majority with 37-41 seats, restricting the BJP to 25-29. It predicts that the AAP may not even be able to open its account, while others may win 2-4 seats.

It is noteworthy that the Deshbandhu Exit Poll predicts a victory for the INC with 40-46 seats and the BJP trailing with 22-28! AAP and others could get 0-2 each.

Uttar Pradesh (403 Assembly seats)

Because of the mammoth size of the UP Assembly, the half-way mark is 202. This is where the poll predictions become interesting, with some polls predicting thumping majority and landslide victories for the BJP, and others pointing towards a slimmer margin of victory with SP making considerable gains. Yet others are predicting a victory for the Samajwadi Party (SP).

India Today – Axis My India Exit Poll predicts a “landslide victory” for the BJP, saying it could win 288-326 seats, while the SP could win 71-101 seats. It also predicts that the BSP is unlikely to win seats in the double-digits.               

Meanwhile, the ABP – C Voter Exit Poll predicts that the BJP will retain power, but with a reduced majority. It gives the BJP 228-244 seats, while it predicts that SP will win 132-148 seats. It also predicts that Mayawati’s BSP will bag as many as 13-21 seats while the INC could get 4-8 seats.

India TV once again chose to go with two different predictions. According to the India TV-Ground Zero Research Exit Poll, BJP may win 180-220 seats, while Samajwadi Party may bag 168-208 seats. The BSP could get 2-12, Congress 2-8 and others could get 2-4 seats. Meanwhile, according to India TV-CNX Exit Poll, the BJP is set to retain power with 240-250 seats, a higher number of seats as compared to its own Ground Zero Research Exit Poll. The India TV-CNX Exit Poll also gives the SP 140-150 seats, and says BSP may bag 6-12 seats, Congress 2-4 and others may get 0-2 seats.

At the other end of the spectrum is the Deshbandhu UP Exit Poll, which predicts that the BJP will get 134-150 seats, while the SP will get 228-244 seats, taking them past the halfway mark! It gives the BSP 10-24 seats, and the INC 1-9 seats.

The final results will be declared after counting on March 10, 2022.

Related:

Assembly polls: 40,395 model code of conduct violations lodged with EC
Assembly Elections: Large turnout among women voters

The post Assembly Election Exit Polls: Will media pundits be proved wrong again? appeared first on SabrangIndia.

Even as he was on his way out, Sunil Arora, whose term as Chief Election Commissioner ended on April 12, 2021, issued an order banning West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee from campaigning for 24 hour hours starting 8 P.M on Monday.

This is an unprecedented move against a sitting Chief Minister and suggests that the order was issued at the behest of the vindictive regime at the Center. The ban on campaigning comes in the middle of assembly elections where violence has been escalating with each passing phase. Indeed, phase four was the bloodies with four people being killed in firing by paramilitary forces and a fifth person gunned down by unknown assailants in Sitalkuchi in Cooch Behar district.

The reason for issuing the 24-hour campaign ban against Banerjee as stated in the EC order is her non- response to two notices, both dated April 8, 2021, issued to her in connection with two separate complaints:

–        When she allegedly appealed to Muslims to ensure their vote does not get divided

–        When she allegedly asked women to gherao (surround) personnel belonging to paramilitary forces if they try to disrupt voting

Mamata Banerjee paints a picture of defiance

At the very outset, Banerjee called out the EC for targeting her and announced plans to protest the move saying, “To protest against the undemocratic and unconstitutional decision of the Election Commission of India, I will sit on dharna tomorrow at Gandhi Murti, Kolkata from 12 noon.”

To protest against the undemocratic and unconstitutional decision of the Election Commission of India, I will sit on dharna tomorrow at Gandhi Murti, Kolkata from 12 noon.

— Mamata Banerjee (@MamataOfficial) April 12, 2021

True to her word, Banerjee arrived at the Gandhi statue and sat quietly in her wheelchair. After some time, she started painting.

“Great protests are great art works”- Diego Rivera#BlackDayForDemocracy pic.twitter.com/tjAwmQw6GJ

— Didi Ke Bolo (@DidiKeBolo) April 13, 2021

Dear Emperor, She’ll draw your destiny on her canvas.. #BlackDayForDemocracy pic.twitter.com/YQLEpucD76

— Debangshu Bhattacharya Dev (@ItsYourDev) April 13, 2021

Banerjee left the protest spot at around 3 P.M. According to The Telegraph, she is expected to resume campaigning after the ban ends at 8 P.M, but has to wind up by 10 P.M as tonight is the last phase of campaigning for phase five of the Assembly elections for which polling will take place on April 17.

But tomorrow, Banerjee is expected to visit the Mathabhanga sub-divisional hospital where three people who were injured in the Sitalkuchi firings are receiving treatment. Banerjee had showed images on her phone of bullet injuries sustained by people in their upper bodies during a press conference after the shooting. She had asked at that time, “This was genocide. The central force just sprayed them with bullets. They fired at the upper part of the body,” adding, “They should have fired below the waist, but the bullets were fired at the neck and the chest.”

Is the regime using EC to intimidate Mamata Banerjee?

Earlier too, the EC had issued orders to transfer police officials and public servants deemed close to Mamata Banerjee.

On Friday, April 9, just a day before voting was to take place for phase four, the EC removed Asoke Chakraborty, an SP rank officer posted in Mamata Banerjee’s security detail. The reason given was security lapse that led to Mamata Banerjee getting injured in Nandigram on March 10. In fact, on March 14, the EC, in an unprecedented move, had suspended Vivek Sahay IPS, Director Security for Mamata Banerjee and directed that charges be framed against him for his failure to protect a Z+ protectee (Mamata Banerjee). The EC had also directed that a Committee of Chief Secretary and DGP shall identify “the other proximate security personnel below Director Security, who failed in their duties to prevent the incident and protect the Z+ protectee VVIP and take suitable action for their failure under intimation to the Commission”. This move is noteworthy, as these “proximate security personnel” have been working with Banerjee for years. It thus appears to be a rather sensitive step, given how it is basically a move directed at taking Banerjee’s trusted inner circle of security personnel away from her.

The decision to suspend and transfer senior officers was taken based on a report and recommendations by Special General Observer Ajay Nayak and Special Police Observer Vivek Dubey. The same Vivek Dubey whose report in the Sitalkuchi matter insists that CISF personnel “fired in self-defence”.

Also, on April 9, the EC transferred Bhangar police station inspector-in-charge Shyam Prasad Saha alleging he was “playing a partisan role to help the Trinamul candidate.”

On Wednesday, April 7, the EC removed three District Magistrates: Nikhil Nirmal of South Dinajpur, Enaur Rehman of East Burdwan and Purendu Maji of West Burdwan. While polling will take place in East Burdwan in two phases: Phase 5 on April 17 and Phase 6 on April 22, both West Burdwan and South Dinajpur will go to polls during the seventh phase on April 26.

Action against BJP

As far as action against members of the BJP goes, Suvendu Adhikari was served notice for calling Banerjee “Begum” and alleging “She will turn Bengal into mini-Pakistan”. On Tuesday, Rahul Sinha has been barred from campaigning for 48 hours following his remarks that more people ought to have been shot dead in Sitakuchi. He reportedly said, “Eight, not four people should have been shot,” at an election rally in Habra. The ban starts on April 13, at 12 noon and ends at 12 noon on April 15.

Meanwhile, a notice has been served to Dilip Ghosh who openly threatened to replicate the Sitalkuchi shootings in other locations if “naughty boys” failed to fall in line. He has been given time till Wednesday morning to explain his remarks. The notice was in response to a complaint filed by the TMC.

Addressing a rally at Baranagar, Ghosh had dubbed the victims of the firing as “dushtu chhele (naughty boys)”. He went on to say, “Aar jodi barabari korey, Sitalkuchitey dekhechhen ki hoyechhe. Jaygaye jaygaye Sitalkuchi hobey (If they cross the limits, you’ve seen what happened in Sitalkuchi. There will be a Sitalkuchi everywhere).”

However, there has been no response to the allegations of bribing voters using Rs 1000 encashable coupons in Raidighi. There has also been no response to attack on a female TMC candidate outside a voting booth during phase three.

Are the BJP’s intimidation tactics backfiring?

Mamata Banerjee is no novice. She has faced violence first-hand in a political career spanning forty years. In fact, she has developed quite a reputation as an indomitable streetfighter who refuses to bow down to threats or even violence.

Even though the Central government has allegedly targeted her using different agencies such as the CBI and EC, she has never backed down or appeared even remotely compliant to their agenda. She did not allow action against her top police officers, she refused to bow to pressure when her nephew Abhishek’s wife was implicated in a case of allegedly stealing coal, and when the CBI was allegedly used to re-examine cases in the Saradha scam for amounts as little as Rs 5,000.

Even after being injured on March 10 in Nandigram, an attack Banerjee alleges was carried out at the behest of the regime, she has been making appearances in her wheelchair, holding marches, protests, rallies… and perhaps getting extra attention for the same.

Related:

Battleground Bengal: Five killed in Sitalkuchi, EC and Central forces under scanner again
Battleground Bengal: Was BJP attempting to bribe voters?
Why has CAPF man on poll duty, accused of molesting EC a minor not been arrested yet?
Battleground Bengal: Security adviser’s powers seized
Battleground Bengal: Unprecedented action by ECI
CBI reinvests vigorously in WB chit-fund case investigations

The post Battleground Bengal: Campaign ban on Mamata Banerjee parting shot by outgoing CEC? appeared first on SabrangIndia.

Meet the ‘Intellectuals’
The GIA comprises Meera Khadakkar (Retired District Judge, Nagpur), Monika Arora (Supreme Court Advocate), Sarjana Sharma (Journalist), Sonali Chitalkar (Professor) and Monica Aggarwal (Social activist). The group that submitted its report to Union Minister Jitendra Singh and demanded that the case be handed over to the CBI. The GIA claims they met more than 25 people including the victim’s family, the accused family members, the influential people from the Bakarwal community and others. 

Argument-1: Presence of Kashmiris in Crime Branch Team  

“Three investigating teams rapidly changed one after another within a span of 10 days from January 12 to January 23. The crime branch team consists of two ethnic Kashmiris apart from the SSP Crime Branch Jammu who is also Kashmiri. In a sensitive case like this one and interstate like Jammu and Kashmir, this matters,” notes the report. This clearly shows their communal bias given how while Jammu is Hindu majority region, Kashmir is predominantly Muslim.

The allusion to the incompetence and/or collusion of Muslim investigators in purposely tanking the case should ring enough alarm bells across civil society groups. This is also disturbing given how the charge-sheet clearly mentions that the little girl was raped and murdered because the accused wanted to scare and drive away the nomadic Muslim Bakarwal tribe from the region. The insidious communal colour becomes deeper when the report alleges that harassment by the Crime Branch is forcing Hindus to leave the Kathua region. With the scars of the Kashmiri Pandit exodus of the 90s still deep, such communally inflammatory allegations can cause further destabilisation in one of the most conflict ridden regions in the world.

Argument-2: Post Mortem does not mention Rape
The brutality of the crime had shaken people across the country forcing many to take to the streets. But the GIA report says that the post-mortem does not categorically state that the child was raped. “The charge sheet mentions gangrape by at least three persons over many days. This is not corroborated by the injuries described in the postmortem report. No such injuries are reported on the victim in the Kathua incident which according to the chargesheet is a gangrape. Postmortem report only mentions abrasions but no injuries,” states the report. This is especially ridiculous given how the J&K Police had issued a press release shooting down fake news and categorically stating that the girl had indeed been raped. 

This reeks of the popular conspiracy theory that involves two post-mortems! The theory claimed that the little girl was never raped as the first post-mortem report does not mention it. The conspiracy theory further alleges that rape was added in the second post mortem report to sensationalise the case.

Argument-3: Rape not possible at the Dev Sthan
Meanwhile, Arora maintains that rape would be impossible in a prayer hall that had multiple doors and windows and the keys of which were in possession of four village elders. “There is neither any basement nor any floor. There is only a 20×35 feet room where there is no furniture except a three feet table. There are three windows and three doors. The windows have only grills and they are not covered. You can see from outside what is going on inside. There are four keys to the Dev Sthan which are with four elders of the village. People come and go there frequently,” she said.

But this has also been debunked by The Quint in a piece that takes down multiple conspiracy theories. It says, “The Quint has visited the temple/prayer hall where the police states the girl was held captive and can certify that it is not a crowded temple. The temple is located in the middle of nowhere, with no houses adjacent to it for kilometres.” The Quint adds, “It is situated on a hilltop and is isolated from the Rasanna village which lies about a kilometre away from the hall. The walk, which leads to the village, is a lonely one. It opens up to a number of houses including the home of Sanji Ram. It is on this same path that the body of the victim was found on 17 January. The chargesheet states that that the Devisthan was exclusively manned by the main accused, Sanji Ram, to exclude any other person in the area.”

Last-ditch effort to derail Justice?
Is this yet another move to derail justice after the spectacularly juvenile attempt by lawyers to prevent the police from filing a chargesheet? Or is this a last ditch attempt by right wing sympathisers to protect the accused whose goose has virtually been cooked? Either way, these repeated endeavours to spread ridiculous and often outright incorrect information, are part of the wider conspiracy to sow the weeds of doubt in a case that has been brilliantly investigated by a team of skilled investigators… and a case that will be fought with equal elan and grace by a dedicated lawyer in the court. 

Related:

How Hate for Muslims sells and spreads on Social Media

Is a Police Press Release countering Fake News India’s ‘New Normal’?

Growing Communalism in Jammu

Report on Kathua Rape

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