For instance, we need to consider the following factors:

• Performance of the AAP Government,
• Perception of corruption by the AAP,
• Controversy over the official bungalow of Arvind Kejriwal,
• Pollution in Delhi,
• Kejriwal’s failure to protect minority
• Loss of even partial status of the Delhi State given the powers handed by central diktat to the LG, incumbency and the urge for a change,
• Failure to strike alliance between AAP and INC,
• Kejriwal labelling Rahul Gandhi as amongst three corrupt leaders and
• Yamuna water being unfit for consumption
• Selective deletion and addition of electors between the notification of elections on January 7, 2025 and the final electoral roll issued thereafter, on January 17, 2025. The increase was a substantial 76,366 electors in the 10 day period, from 1,55,37,634 to 1,56,14000.
• The EVM, Factor and other alleged election malpractices.

And/or

• Huge income tax relief announced in budget up-to INR 1,13000, and more,
• Landing of deported ones at Amritsar, Punjab rather than that at the Indira Gandhi airport New

The picture of the repeatedly altered register of voters has ensured a mind-boggling impact. This factor has emerged despite the fact that a special summary revision of electoral rolls with reference to the qualifying date of January 1, 2025 was started in all the constituencies. The Draft Electoral Roll had been published on October 29, 2024 and prominently displayed at all places inviting objections by November 28, 2024. This Draft Electoral Roll contained 1,53,57,529

Electors.The registered electors shown in the press release by the CEO at the time depicted 1,47,97,990 electors for the 2020 Assembly, as per the summary of electors posted by the Election Commission of India (ECI) on its web page on Assembly Elections of NCT Delhi 2020. Thereafter on Jan 06, 2025 17:02 hours IST, the ECI released the final electoral roll of Delhi which showed that the national capital has a total 1,55,24,858 voters, 83,49,645 male and 71,73,952 female voters, third gender 1,261.

• Registered Electors in NCT Delhi for Assembly Elections 2020 = 1,47,97,990
• Registered Electors, finally shown in NCT Delhi in Lok Sabha elections 2024 = 1,52,14,638
• Jan 06, 2025 17:02 IST, Registered Electors Summary revision ECI = 1,55,24,858

(Male 83,49,645 Female 71,73,952 , Third Gender 1261 Total 1,55,24,858)

• Elections notified on January 7, 2025, Total Registered electors (ECI) = 1,55,37,634
• ELECTORS AS ON 01.2025 (CEO NCT DELHI) = 1,56,14000

Issue of Electoral Rolls

The repeated and substantial alterations of registered voters by the ECI itself makes the exercise cloudy. The absence of any credible explanation as well as deviation from the norm also shatters the confidence of the electors because of an absence of any degree of fairness. Even under the amended section 14 of the Representation of Peoples Act 1950, the date of eligibility for the registration of electors is January 1, April 1, July 1, and Oct 1 of each year and in the present case of Delhi for the February 2025 elections it is January 1, 2025 under amended section 14 ibid. Since the process had begun on October 29, 2024, but the revised rolls were published only by January 7, 2025 the date of notification should have not resulted in any hike/ injection of electors 10 days thereafter (76366 voters were added as has been explained above). There have been allegations of the unauthorised deletion of names and addition of voters, hence, given that the ECI is a constitutional body owing accountability to the people of India, it is bound under the Constitution and the law to place details regarding the entire process related to the inclusion of new voters, including the documents therein, in the public domain.

Besides, a duty is cast upon the ECI to explain how: a) 13,145 electors got inducted in the voter’s list of the Badli constituency; b) 16,413 electors got inducted into the list of the Nangloi Jat constituency c)17,549 electors got inducted into the list of the in Mundika constituency; d) 7,387 into the lists of the Shahdra constituency; e) 24,759 voters into the lists of the Burari assembly constituency; f) 18,404 added into the list of the Bawana constituency; g) 8,638 voters added into the list of the Vikaspuri constituency and, h) 2,209 votes added into the New Delhi constituency. These examples are illustrations and other constituencies too saw such an increase between the Lok Sabha elections held in Delhi on May 25, 2024 and the NCT assembly elections held on February 5. 2025.

The YouTube news channel run by journalist, Ajit Anjum (@AjitAnjumOfficial ) has made public the study conducted by it on the gross irregularities into the voter registration process that includes the registering of multiple electors at addresses of (six) –in large part—representatives of the BJP!. This study related to a micro 32 addresses from which location, as many as 635 votes ranging between 15 to 44 votes per address were added! Incidentally, some of these “addresses” are even not permitted to be labelled as a residence and some are so small in size that the number of persons (whose names were registered from there) could not have been said to have been registered under:

The pattern in this study (expose) provides a clear indication that there has been a process of “bulk registration” of voters, almost as if targets were given for the exercise.[1]

Voter Turnout

The ECI has faltered, again, on the release of voter turnout data too by altering the timing of the first press release to 5 p.m. instead of 7 p.m. which is one hour after scheduled voting time. The voter turnout at 57.70% in the ECI Press release (vide No. ECI /PN/179/2024 dated February 5, 2025 as of 5.00 p.m.) Though the scheduled voting time was until 6 p.m. The voter turnout percentage was revised to 60.42% by 11.30 p.m. (vide No. ECI /PN/180/2024 dated

February 5, 2025). There was no official press release at 6 p.m. that is at the end of scheduled poll time. Incidentally, the CEO Delhi released yet another figure for voter turnout (60.54%) without mentioning any time. The total number of votes polled have been declared as 94, 51,997.

Status of votes secured by parties, winning margins of contestants and overall impact

An analysis of the votes secured by the parties and the candidates with losing and winning margins in all the 70 seats –including votes polled by the candidates of three major political players, i.e. the AAP, NDA and INC shows that AAP lost 16 seats by a margin of 10,000 votes or less and NDA lost 8 seats in this range. A further analysis also shows that the NDA also won three seats by a margin of less than 1000 votes: Sangam Vihar (344 votes) Tirlokpuri (392 votes) and Jangpura (675 votes). In another three seats, again, the margin of victory of the BJP is very slender between 1001 and 2000 votes: these are Timarpur (1168 votes), Rajinder Nagar (1231votes) and Mehrauli (1782 votes). In another three seats AAP lost by similarly small margins: Malviya Nagar (2131 votes), Greater Kailash (3188 votes), New Delhi (4089 votes), while in the remaining seven seats AAP lost by 5001-10000 votes: Shahdra (5178 votes), Chhatarpur (6239 votes), Mangolpuri (6255 votes), Hari Nagar (6632 votes), Dwarka (7829 votes), Narela (8596 votes), Palm (8952 votes). In contrast, in the seats where it emerged victorious, APP has won all seats by a margin of more than 2,000 votes.

Vote Share

Seats where the margin of loss by APP is less than the votes secured by INC

Pre-poll Opinion and Exit Polls

1. Latest Opinion Poll by Phalodi Satta Bazar: This poll conducted by Madhuri Adnal Time (updated Friday, January 31, 2025, 18:50 hours forecast AAP securing 38-40 seats and BJP an estimated 30-32
2. Gaurav Sharma, in oneindia.com  (published on Monday February 3 2025, 11:08 hours) com/new-Delhi, the opinion polls suggested that the AAP may bag 37 to 40 seats. BJP may clinch 20 to 25 seats, Congress 0 to 2 seats.
3. Hindi Khabar and Mind Brick India in its poll suggested that AAP would get 55 seats. The BJP 15 and INC none.

Conclusion: The pre poll opinion in a majority of the surveys showed that while the APP would get less seats than earlier –the number could reduce to 38-40 seats – it would still form the government while the BJP would get a respectable number of 20 to 32 seats but would not be able to get majority.

DELHI EXIT POLL NEWS 18 www.news18.com › elections › assembly Delhi Assembly Election 2025 Exit Poll Results Latest Updates …Feb 5, 2025 · Get the latest Delhi Assembly election 2025 exit poll results, predictions for Delhi elections, and AAP, BJP, Congress seat forecasts. 

Delhi Assembly elections 2025

Factors that acted as the drivers of a sudden change between January 31, and February 5, 2025

It appears obvious from the above that the scales shifted substantially by the time the exit polls were conducted. Almost all the polls showed the BJP get a thumping majority, on its way to form the next government. AAP was predicted to be trailing behind. Scientifically, we need to therefore conclude that something major occurred between January 31 and February 5 to tilt the scales so decisively.

Some factors

1. Union Budget presented on 1^st of February and FM Sitaraman claims to fill the pockets of middle class and doles out 1 lakh crore in the form of Income Tax Waiver.
2. All tax payers having an income of Rs. 12 lakh and the Salaried persons having an income of 12.75 lakh get total waiver of the income tax thus getting up-to 1.13 lakh rupees per annum as tax waiver and benefit on two rented houses and many other benefits.

Impact of the Income Tax Waiver on Delhi electors

(Income Tax Revenue in Accounting Year 2023-2024)

Significantly, 62.21% of from the Rs.16,63,686.47 crore income tax revenue, during AY 2023-24, came from the three states of Maharashtra 6,05,268.35 crore, NCT Delhi 2,21,522.20 crore and Karnatka 2,08,168.88 crore.

The income tax paid by NCT Delhi turns out to be 13.32% of the total income tax from whole of India. Out of Rs. One lakh crore doled out by the FM by income tax relief, the amount for NCR Delhi totals Rs. 13,315 crore per year.

Income Tax returns filed during 2023-2024

During the financial year 2022-23, in NCT Delhi, 37,06,999 persons filed income tax returns out of which 12,25,820 are the beneficiaries of the income tax relief doled out by the Finance Minister on February 1, 2025. The ECI has stayed mum on the announcement of this dole In the budget four days before the scheduled election. It appears apparent that votes have been lured by this significant dole out. Out of the total beneficiaries, even if 20% of the voters tilted towards the BJP, more than the present win was assured.

This can be established if we analyse the preferences expressed by various segments of the voters in a survey conducted by C Voter that gave a general idea of the demography tilt in favour of the BJP and AAP. Published by India Today, the exit polls have predicted a victory for the BJP in Delhi India Today News Desk New Delhi, UPDATED: Feb 6, 2025 23:12 IST Written By: Prateek Chakraborty. Hence, the figures of preferences of various socio-economic, religious, gender-based, and age group preferences displayed in the C Voter survey published by India Today, strengthens this contention.

From the accompanying table it is patently clear that higher income groups have tilted to BJP especially those having income in this tax bracket. This displays an overall tilt of 50%, while those with an income of Rs. one lakh or more per month show a 54.9 and 61.1% preference for BJP while AAP has a support of only 32.7% and 25.8% respectively

Similarly there has been a greater shift of the male voter towards the BJP on this count. A total of 51.4% men have preferred the BJP whereas, on the contrary, 50.7% of women voters preferred AAP. This shows the impact of this budget announcement, again.

Since the budget has nothing for the house wives and labour has also been denied any benefit, more than 51% of these categories, i.e. housewives 51.5% and labour 51.8% have opted for AAP.

Since youth has not been given the requite hope from the budget, youngsters between 18-22 and 23-35 have preferred AAP to the tune of 46.7% and 45.4% respectively

This income tax relief is only beneficial for the employed, who come from college levels and professionals who can have start-ups and loans. Therefore, the impact of budget announcement of tax relief is manifest in these categories for BJP: 53.9% of the above high school and 54.5% professionals have preferred BJP

Another factor that has probably played a role in the dramatic last minute shift was the deliberate decision of the government of India to give permission for the landing of the first US military airplane at the Guru Ramdas International Air Port Amritsar not in Delhi. This carrier transported, in handcuffs and chains, 104 deported migrants. Of these 33each were from Gujarat and Haryana, 30 from Punjab, and three each from Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Chandigarh,

Though the numbers of deportees were highest from Gujarat and Haryana, a compliant and complicit media had begun a campaign to depict those deported as only from Punjab. There was a significant undercurrent of anti-Sikh minority bashing in the ‘Godi” media coverage. However, the chief minister of Pubjab, Bhagwant Mann announced government jobs for all the 30 deportees from Punjab. This too had its impact in NCT Delhi: 49.1% Sikhs and 63.1% Muslims preferred AAP to any other party in the polls.

Acknowledgements: The reaction of voters at pages 6,7 above have been taken from the C Voter Survey published by India Today on February 6, 2025. The income tax data has been taken from the official website of the tax authorities. The voter percentage and other voter related data has been interpreted from the website of the ECI and the CEO, Delhi.

(The author is former Dean, Punjab University Faculty of Medical Sciences)

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are the author’s personal views, and do not necessarily represent the views of Sabrangindia.

[1] The author states this because of the similarity in pattern: the same numbers of registrations getting from different locations, irrespective of the size, nature or status of place or of Residents. This is normally not possible without a connivance of the authorities and some protection from the powers that be. The Table raises the question, has the process of registration of electors been manipulated/vitiated for the injection of fake electors?

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The post Who orchestrated APPs failures, the FM and her ex-FS or the ECI? appeared first on SabrangIndia.

Needless to say that the faith of a citizen in Governance germinates out of the process of fair, impartial, efficient and transparent elections by free exercise of the right to vote, given by ‘we, the citizens of India’ through adult suffrage in Article 326 of the Constitution of India, there is no provision for seeking votes on the basis of caste, creed, religion, enticement or threat by hate speech.

To this end, Article 334 has provided for the establishment of the Election Commission of India and the legislature has framed ‘The Representation of The People Act 1951’ and the Election Rules 1961, thereunder. The Act and the rules, have made various provisions elaborately for the conduct of free and fair election. Each functionary and authority down the lane even up to the booth level presiding/polling officers, are duty bound to conduct fair election. Under Section 27 of the Act, duty is cast on the Presiding officer to ensure a free and fair exercise. Further the duties and rights of election agents, polling agents and the counting agents stand incorporated under section 40 to 50 of the Act for an impartial and transparent procedure. Further under ‘The Conduct of Election Rules 1961’ there are more safeguards for transparency and fairness so as to put an end to arbitrariness and fudging the data of votes polled.

Under Rule 49 L the name of each elector is to be entered in serial order in Register 17A and his/her signatures are obtained before allowing him /her to vote. In fact it is a live register and real time monitoring. Voter turnout can be seen at any moment and the same has to be uploaded every 2 hours on the ENCORE App.

At the close of the polls Rule 49 S provides that number of votes polled is to be declared by the PO after pressing close button and the said number is recorded in Form 17-C.  A signed copy of this form 17-C, is given to each Polling Agent present at the close of the poll. As such, there should be no delay in declaration of votes having been polled at the polling booth and the same is to be uploaded on ENCORE App. Under rule 93(2) form 17-C can be inspected and a copy can be obtained by a citizen after making payment of fee as prescribed.

However, during the recently concluded elections to the 18^th Lok Sabha, the transparency and fairness has come under cloud on more than one occasion and on various issues. The Election Commission of India (ECI) kept trying to keep everything concealed, and kept trying to by-pass all the established norms. This attitude of the ECI created suspicion and strong doubts about the fairness of the whole exercise.

The first and foremost blow to the transparency and accountability was struck, when the ECI failed to declare figures of the votes polled at the end of the polls. Though ECI posted initial provisional percentage of voter turnout for the 1^st Phase (April 19) at around 7.00 pm on the day at 60% but actual votes polled or the final figure of voter turnout was not divulged for 11 days! There is no rational excuse for this delay. Criticism and questions led to a callous and stony silence on behalf of the ECI. This silence by an institution that is constitutionally mandate to have unfailing allegiance to each and every citizen of India, the Voter, and not the Government in power, led to more confusion and suspicion. Thereafter for the 2^nd phase too (April 26), only a provisional figure of 60.96% was declared, the final figures were not declared. After a lot of hue and cry in media the ECI on 30.04.2024 declared final provisional figures to be 66.14% for 1st phase and 66.71% for 2^nd phase. As such an unexplained huge hike of voter turn by 6.14% and 5.75% was therefore shown for both the 1st and 2^nd phase. Before public vigilance grew stronger and ECI’s motives were openly suspect, already votes to 192 and 89 seats had been case in the 1^st and 2^nd phases respectively.

ECI hikes failed to divulge figures of voter Turn Out in time

Thereafter the ECI made it a routine to hike the voter turnout figure after 4-5 days, the hike was 4.23%, 6.32%, 4.73%, 4.31% and 4.33% in the 3^rd, 4^th,5^th,6^th and the 7^th phases respectively. These elections took place on May 7, May 13m May 20, May 25 and June 1 respectively. These Phases individually accounted for 94, 96, 49, 57 and 57 seats respectively.

Despite the fact that the ECI remains unaccountably obdurate and unconvincing in addressing serious questions of the anomalies, they raise questions that must be answered, This unexplained hike when analysed phase wise and state wise depicts startling figures of hike in each state and same being connected to the tally of the BJP and NDA as shown in table below.

The curious case of Punjab

Further that BJP vote share in Punjab rose to 18.56% with hike of 6.94% in voter turnout.  In Chandigarh with increase of 5.18% the winning margin reduced to 2504, in Tamil Nadu turn out hiked by 9.53% and BJP Vote share rose to get more than doubled to 11.24%.

Table above depicts that in UP first two phases voter turnout hiked by 3.02% NDA got 9 seats out of 16, strike rate of 56.25% but when in next 5 phases hike was only 0.25% NDA tally was 27/64 strike rate of 42.2% only.

ECI: Misplaced, misleading claims

The claim of ECI that the voter turnout cannot be uploaded on same or 2^nd day because the distances are too long, connectivity is too poor, voting closes in late hours, polling parties are dead tired.

However this lie is badly exposed because in Chandigarh where the connectivity is first rate, and the constituency has only 614 polling booths, the total voter turnout is only 4,48,547 voters, distance within the Constituency is within a radius of 15 kms, yet the turnout has been increased by 5.18%, that too after the tally is made public after four days! The ECI has no reply to this. The geographical area, the total number of voters, polling booths and distances are minimum (small) as compared to any district of UP with almost more than a million votes polled in each constituency! Yet, in Chandigarh, the final figures of polling were given on June 6, an inexplicable 5 days after polling, showing a hike of 5.18% whereas in UP (in the last 5 phases), there was negligible change in EVM figures of of 0.25% only.

With a 12.54% vote hike in Odisha, NDA got 20 out of 21 seats, in Andhra Pradesh with 12.54% hike cornered 21 out of 25 seats, in Assam with a 9.19% hike, the seats of NDA stood at 11 of 14 and in Chhattisgarh, the hike of 4.66 % in votes meant that the NDA won 10 seats out of 11.

Tampering of votes polled in EVMs

Did the manipulation stop there?

After polling in 542 seats in 7 phases and the mess created by this unexplained hike of vote percentage in each phase to the extent of 4.31% to 6.32% was not the only way this 18^th Lok Sabha election was manipulated. The matter did not stop there.

The sanctity of EVM also stands breached in 539 seats. Only in 3 seats one in Lakshadweep, one in Damma & Diu and one in Amreli in Gujrat the votes recovered in EVM were exactly the same as the votes polled.

However, in the rest of the 539 seats the votes polled in EVM did not tally with the votes recovered in EVM at the time of counting. Discrepancy of votes has been found in all the 7 phases, the variation ranging from 1 vote to a staggering 16, 791 votes!

The Table below depicts in 274 seats EVM votes variation range is 1-500, in another 97 seats it is between 501 -1000, while in a mindboggling number of seats that 151 seats variation range is 1001-5000. However, 17 seats showed the variation of more than 5000 votes, the highest being 16791 votes in Tiruvallur of Tamil Nadu.

Excess votes recovered from EVM of 174 Constituencies

In a significant, 174 seats the votes recovered from EVM s at the end of counting hour was more than the votes actually polled in the EVMs during polling time before close of polls.

The range of excess votes is the minimum and the maximum between 1 and 3811 votes and can be seen per constituency in each phase of polling in the table below.

While in as many as 365 seats votes recovered from EVMs during counting were less than the votes polled in the EVMs during polling, the range being between 1 and 16791, the minimum and the maximum limit.

Out of these a few constituencies depicting high deficit are listed in the table below:

Here are some seats where the BJP has won by a very narrow margin and the discrepancy of votes polled in EVM and Votes recovered from EVM is also significant in relation to these margins.

As such one can imagine very easily that these 10 seats with so narrow a margin need an explanation from the ECI as to how could sanctity of votes polled in EVMs be jeopardised? When this margin has affected the result decisively?

ECI claimed in its press release on 25.05.2024 as under:

“Any alteration in number of votes polled is not possible. The whole exercise of release of turn out data from the commencement of date of polls on19th April 2024 has been accurate, consistent and in accordance with the election laws and without any discrepancy whatsoever.”

Will the ECI be able to make public as to whether its data was wrong, arguably even manipulated and a fake claim had been propagated about its invincibility? Or was the exercise only any eye wash to intentionally mislead the public so that criticism is diluted and no finger is pointed out at such serious flaws? Let the Hon’ble Supreme Court also now come out boldly and openly on this manifest slap in the face of democracy by its own highest institutions.

The ECI is –to date –not giving any detailed or cogent explanation about these huge discrepancies in EVM Votes in 539 constituencies! Rather, it is trying to mislead –by an exercise in guess work—where, in fact there has been an effort to promote a conscious negligence, active connivance. Worse, the deliberate attempt has been to make the process opaque to enable one-sided favours by the ECI. This constitutional body, the ECI could have come out with a cogent explanation for the mismatch of EVM votes for each constituency individually and severely.

Trust is low, in both the ECI as well as in EVMs. Faith and a Free and Fair Election has been dealt a blow.

(The author is former Dean, Punjab University Faculty of Medical Sciences)

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are the author’s personal views, and do not necessarily represent the views of Sabrangindia.

The post SABRANGINDIA EXCLUSIVE: Election 2024, ECI: Technical glitch, gross negligence or deliberate manipulation? appeared first on SabrangIndia.