Kashyap Raibagi | SabrangIndia https://sabrangindia.in/content-author/kashyap-raibagi-21708/ News Related to Human Rights Thu, 16 May 2019 04:22:42 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.2.2 https://sabrangindia.in/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Favicon_0.png Kashyap Raibagi | SabrangIndia https://sabrangindia.in/content-author/kashyap-raibagi-21708/ 32 32 Why Nifty, Sensex Rose After Every General Election Since 1999 https://sabrangindia.in/why-nifty-sensex-rose-after-every-general-election-1999/ Thu, 16 May 2019 04:22:42 +0000 http://localhost/sabrangv4/2019/05/16/why-nifty-sensex-rose-after-every-general-election-1999/ Pune: India’s key stock market indices, the Nifty and Sensex, showed a rise six months after all the four Lok Sabha elections between 1999 and 2014, compared to the previous six months, according to an IndiaSpend analysis. We analysed Nifty and Sensex levels on three key dates–six months before the first day of polling (pre-election), […]

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Pune: India’s key stock market indices, the Nifty and Sensex, showed a rise six months after all the four Lok Sabha elections between 1999 and 2014, compared to the previous six months, according to an IndiaSpend analysis.

We analysed Nifty and Sensex levels on three key dates–six months before the first day of polling (pre-election), the first day of polling (during the election) and six months after the first day of polling (post-election), over the last four Lok Sabha elections.

The Nifty and Sensex showed an average rise of 40.8% six months after each of these general elections, as compared to the previous six months.

The Nifty, short for the National Stock Exchange (NSE) Fifty, was launched on April 1, 1996, and represents the weighted average of 50 major Indian companies across 12 sectors that are listed on the NSE. The Sensex, short for the S&P Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensitive Index, which is an index of 30 major Indian companies listed on the BSE, was established in 1986.

Of the four Lok Sabha elections held after the establishment of the Nifty, two (2004 and 2009) saw the election of an Indian National Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government. In 1999, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) formed the government, despite falling short of a majority. In 2014, the BJP won a simple majority and formed an NDA government along with allies. In all four cases, both the Nifty and the Sensex rose.

The Nifty saw the highest rise after the 2009 elections, when the UPA government was re-elected. The index was at 5,142 on October 16, 2009, compared to 3,269 on the same day a year before–a 57.3% increase.

The Sensex, too, saw its highest post-election rise after the 2009 elections, going from 10,581 on October 16, 2008, to 17,323 on October 16, 2009–a 63.7% increase.


Source: National Stock Exchange & Bombay Stock Exchange
Note: For 1999 data, the first day of the election is September 5, 1999. Six months pre-elections and post-elections were March 5, 1999, and March 5, 2000, respectively

That the Nifty always rises post-election as compared to before and during elections, was also highlighted in a December 2018 report by Mumbai-based wealth management and investment banking firm Anand Rathi Wealth Services.

A stable government is desirable, which means that a political party or its alliance needs to win  majority for the markets to respond favourably, says the report. “People want a stable government, so if any political party or alliance crosses 272 [halfway mark in the 543-seat Lok Sabha], irrespective of who it is, then we will have a stable government. It is not about UPA or NDA winning a majority. If the market sees a stable government, it will build expectations of stable policies and the market will start rising.”

“Over every five year period, you will find that the Nifty has actually delivered 100% returns from election years. Hence if there are stable five year governments and stable policies, markets will rise,” a source at Anand Rathi told IndiaSpend.

Another reason for markets rising, irrespective of who wins, is that the election is a very big economic event in India’s consumption-driven economy, the source said. A lot of the money spent by political parties and governments around elections eventually goes to people in both rural and urban India. People will eventually spend this money and this drives consumption. Therefore, the earnings of listed companies are likely to go up, which is nothing but the mirror of their returns. “So, who is elected doesn’t really matter. This has happened historically and we believe strongly that this will continue to happen.”

“There is also [a positive sentiment of] hope [around elections] that something different is going to happen in the next five years,” said the source. “[There is an expectation that] the new elected government is going to come up with new policies and therefore you find that markets start going up,” he added.

The report, which also analysed 48 state assembly elections that took place between 2011 and 2018, found that the outcome of 43–or 90%–indicated that voters followed logical reasoning before voting for a party. Voters in India reward or punish incumbent governments by logically assessing the government’s report card, it says.

“We saw that people are ready to elect strong leaders. For instance in Punjab, we found that despite winning several other states at the time, the BJP lost here [in 2017] because there was a strong leader in [now Congress chief minister] Captain Amarinder Singh. So, people did not vote only for a particular party. People wanted someone who can take on this leadership role and deliver,” the source said.

The election results are more significant for markets if there is a “logical” or “favourable” outcome, according to the report. “There are three possible outcomes in the [current Lok Sabha] election. One is the same [BJP-led NDA] government returning, second is a Congress-led UPA and then a third-front government, with no single party winning a majority. We logically think that the BJP will win re-election,” explained the source. “We found that out of these three [options], the first one is the most logical for people. There is hope and expectation of having a strong leader.”

Should an alliance headed by either of the two key political parties, the BJP or the Congress, come to power, the markets will rise significantly, the source said, adding, “However, if a third front [mahagathbandhan] comes to power, then it will be a disaster [for the markets] because then you will not have strong leadership and there will be no stable policies as well. We have seen this historically.”

In the past, stock markets have rallied significantly six months before elections, and post a “favourable” result, the rally has continued further. For instance, in 2009 for a 12-month period during the election (six months before and six months after the start of polling), the market delivered almost 57% absolute returns. However, after the 2004 general elections, where the outcome was not as expected–the Congress party emerged as the single largest party and formed a UPA government, amid widespread expectations of another NDA government–for a 12-month period around the election, the market delivered 16% absolute return, the report says.

(Raibagi, a data analyst and a graduate of computational and data journalism at Cardiff University, is an intern with IndiaSpend.)

Courtesy: India Spend

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Indians In White-Collar Jobs Are More Prone To Obesity, Chronic Health Risks https://sabrangindia.in/indians-white-collar-jobs-are-more-prone-obesity-chronic-health-risks/ Thu, 14 Mar 2019 06:01:59 +0000 http://localhost/sabrangv4/2019/03/14/indians-white-collar-jobs-are-more-prone-obesity-chronic-health-risks/ Mumbai: Indians in white-collar jobs, with low levels of activity in their workday, have a higher average body mass index (BMI)–an indicator of obesity–than those in blue-collar occupations, according to a new study.   Engineers, technicians, mathematicians, scientists and teachers, for example, had higher BMIs than farm workers, fisherpeople and housekeepers, concluded the study published […]

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Mumbai: Indians in white-collar jobs, with low levels of activity in their workday, have a higher average body mass index (BMI)–an indicator of obesity–than those in blue-collar occupations, according to a new study.


 

Engineers, technicians, mathematicians, scientists and teachers, for example, had higher BMIs than farm workers, fisherpeople and housekeepers, concluded the study published in the journal Economics and Human Biology.

BMI is derived by dividing an individual’s body mass by the square of the body height and is expressed in units of kg/m2. The average BMI of men in white-collar jobs was 1.17 kg/m2 higher than those in blue-collar occupations; among women, the difference was 1.51kg/m2, the study showed. A lower BMI is better than higher.

Individuals are categorised as underweight if their BMI is under 18.5 kg/m2, normal if it is in the range of 18.5 to 25 kg/m2, overweight if it is somewhere between 25 and 30 kg/m2 and obese if the index surpasses 30 kg/m2, according to the standards prescribed by the World Health Organization (WHO).

India has experienced high rates of economic growth in the last two decades, and the resultant increase in income is related to a rise in the proportion of those who are obese, according to this study.

India currently has the third highest number of overweight or obese individuals among all countries–20% of its adults and 11% of adolescents can be categorised as obese, according to this September 2014 paper, that has been cited in this study.

Higher levels of BMI have been associated with higher levels of energy intake and lower levels of energy expenditure. But there has been a long-term, persistent decline in the average energy intake in India, studies have shown. Given this, the rise in BMI can be traced to the rise in sedentary occupations–a natural consequence of economic development.

“Lower physical activity level at work is possibly one of the factors of rising BMI, given the backdrop that, on an average India has witnessed a decline in energy intake as shown by studies such as Deaton and Drèze, 2009 and Ramachandran, 2014,” Archana Dang, co-author to the study, told IndiaSpend.

Unhealthy levels of BMI are directly related to chronic health risks such as hypertension and diabetes, diseases that can have substantial impacts on household budgets, according to the study.

Given “a reduction in the proportion of workers engaged in heavy work and an increase in the number of workers in moderate and sedentary occupations”, a committee set up to determine how the national minimum wage should be calculated recommended reducing the per head (adult) minimum calorie requirement to 2,400 calories, IndiaSpend reported on March 5, 2019.

However, the committee emphasised that the monetary value for food consumption used in the formula must account for including 50 gm of protein and 30 gm of fat in an adult diet.

Average BMI among women in desk jobs ‘way above Asian standard, alarming’

The study analysed the BMI of men and women, based on the sector of their occupations, the level of activity at work and their intensity. It focused on adults between 18 and 60 years of age who worked for at least 180 days in the preceding year.

Women and men in low-activity jobs recorded an average BMI of 24.26 kg/m2 and 24.20 kg/m2 respectively. This average was lower by 1.62 kg/m2 for women in jobs that involved high levels of activity. For men, it was lower by 1.39 kg/m2.


Source: Labor market engagement and the body mass index of working adults: Evidence from India
Note: Figures are in kg/m2

“The WHO cut-off defines individuals as overweight or obese if BMI is greater than or equal to 25, which is the standard benchmark,” said Dang. “But WHO re-defined cut-offs for Asians at 23 because they appear to be at risk for non-communicable diseases at lower levels of BMI than other populations as they have a higher percentage of body fat than, for example, European populations of the same age, sex, and BMI.”

The average BMI of 24.26 kg/m2 in women holding white-collar jobs is “way above the Asian cut-off, which is alarming”, Dang said.
For data analysis, the study assigned each occupation with a metabolic equivalent (MET) value, based on this May 2011 study. The MET of an activity is the ratio of the rate of energy spent during the activity to the rate of energy spent at rest. One MET is the energy it takes to sit passively or be at rest.

For example, an individual engaged in an activity with a MET value of 4 spends four times the energy used by a body at rest. Occupations were classified on the basis of their MET values: light (MET < 3.00), moderate (MET>3.00 and MET<6.00), and vigorous (MET > 6.00).
Engineers, technicians, mathematicians, scientists and teachers were assigned a value of MET lower than 1.80. Housekeepers, fisherpeople, miners and farm workers were assigned METs in the moderate range. Agricultural and plantation labourers were associated with METs higher than 6.0.

The average BMI of women and men with light-MET jobs was 1.58 kg/m2 and 0.94 kg/m2 more, respectively, than those employed in jobs with vigorous METs. The average MET for white-collar jobs is 1.87 whereas it is 3.23 for blue-collar jobs.

Similarly, on the basis of the level of activity involved, low-level activities have an average MET of 1.87, whereas medium-level and high-level activities have MET of 2.78 and 3.42, respectively.

The association between low-activity jobs and high BMI remained significant even after demographic characteristics, education, socio-economic status and various other household characteristics were controlled, the study found.

Threat to health from rise in BMI rises progressively

“In developed countries like America, maximum obesity is seen rising in low-income groups, not in upper classes, because fast-food joints serve really cheap food there,” said Pune-based endocrinologist Uday Phadke. “However, it is different in developing countries such as India where eating at fast-food joints is a matter of [higher] social status.”

Asians are prone to pre-existing conditions of central obesity, or the excess accumulation of fat in the abdominal area, and adiposity (excessive obesity) resulting from unhealthy lifestyles, according to Phadke.

“The thin-fat phenotype which occurs when fat is added to a thin frame is also evident among Indians,” he said. “Hence a slight increase in the BMI levels can be a threat. Also, the threat caused by rising BMI rises progressively–a rise from 30 to 31 is more dangerous than a rise from 20 to 21.”

Local govt can ensure environment that promotes physical activities

The results presented in this paper suggest that the increase in BMI observed in India is possibly driven by a ‘structural transformation’ that has led to the decline in employment in the blue-collar sector.

The study prescribes procedures to tackle behavioural risk factors linked with high BMI levels such as increased physical activity and a better diet. It has recommended campaigns to increase awareness about the benefits of an active daily routine, such as a short walk, in one’s commute.

Local governments can be key players in creating an environment which is more conducive to physical activities through their land-use policies, the study suggested. For example, builders can be mandated to provide parks and recreational facilities in new developments.

(Raibagi, a data analyst and a graduate of computational and data journalism at Cardiff University, is an intern with IndiaSpend.)

We welcome feedback. Please write to respond@indiaspend.org. We reserve the right to edit responses for language and grammar.

Courtesy: India Spend

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India’s Drug-resistant Tuberculosis Patients Face Delayed And Confusing Diagnoses, Treatment https://sabrangindia.in/indias-drug-resistant-tuberculosis-patients-face-delayed-and-confusing-diagnoses-treatment/ Thu, 21 Feb 2019 07:46:44 +0000 http://localhost/sabrangv4/2019/02/21/indias-drug-resistant-tuberculosis-patients-face-delayed-and-confusing-diagnoses-treatment/ Mumbai: Drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) patients in India face delayed diagnoses, different treatment pathways from both public and private health care systems and differing costs for the same treatments from different providers in an unregulated private health care sector, says a January 2019 study published in Public Library of Science (PLOS), a scientific journal. In 2017, […]

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Mumbai: Drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) patients in India face delayed diagnoses, different treatment pathways from both public and private health care systems and differing costs for the same treatments from different providers in an unregulated private health care sector, says a January 2019 study published in Public Library of Science (PLOS), a scientific journal.

In 2017, India had the world’s highest share (27%) and over a quarter of all TB cases globally, 2.7 million, and accounted for 32% (421,000) of deaths due to the disease–nearly a third of all TB deaths–as IndiaSpend reported in January, 2019. An estimated 2.79 million TB patients are added annually, according to the ministry of health and family welfare’s National Anti-Tuberculosis Drug Resistance Survey, 2016.

India also has the highest share (24%) of drug-resistant TB cases, i.e. patients resistant to one or more first line drugs used to treat the more common, drug-sensitive TB. India had around 135,000 DR-TB patients in 2017–of whom 124,200 (92%) had multi-drug resistant TB. Among the latter, 31,547 (25.4%) had pre extensively drug-resistant (XDR) and 1,615 (1.3%) were XDR-TB patients, according to the PLOS study. Only 39,009 or 28% of DR-TB cases were diagnosed and only 35,950 or 26% were treated in India in 2017, leaving a large diagnosis and treatment gap, IndiaSpend reported.

Large metropolitan cities such as Mumbai have the lion’s share of DR-TB cases, according to the Central TB Division’s India TB Report 2018. This is mainly because almost 42% of Mumbai’s 12.4 million people live in congested conditions in slums, according to Census 2011, with poor access to healthcare facilities.

These large cities also have sizeable numbers of health care providers and diagnostic facilities, and approaches to both treatment and costs vary among these. India faces a dual challenge of treating increasing numbers of DR-TB cases and regulating private treatment facilities, says the PLOS study, aimed at highlighting the problems DR-TB patients face while seeking treatment.

To understand reasons for delays in TB diagnosis, PLOS undertook a survey among 46 DR-TB patients in Mumbai to examine their health seeking behaviour (HSB). Assessing HSB is increasingly recognised as an important tool for understanding people’s preferences and decision-making with regard to health care and the timing of seeking treatment across various health conditions, according to the PLOS study. Understanding HSB is essential to align public health practice and health service delivery models for better outcomes, says the study. PLOS examined the treatment options, or pathways, that DR-TB patients pursued to define their HSB.

Recognition of TB symptoms was low

Many of the patients interviewed knew of others affected by TB, in their neighbourhoods, workplaces and families. However, they lacked awareness about recognising symptoms and prompt health-seeking. Stigma around the disease also contributed to leaving patients in a situation of denial, fear and a feeling of powerlessness, said the study.

Common symptoms like cough, fever, fatigue and loss of appetite did not trigger suspicions among patients that they could have TB. Even patients previously treated for TB were not alerted to the disease’s presence by such symptoms.

One patient thought her symptoms of cough, breathlessness and loss of appetite were mainly due to venturing outdoors in the rain. She was diagnosed with TB only on visiting a doctor.

Another patient interviewed was diagnosed with TB in 2014. He had taken the cough and mild fever which began during the previous winter, to be symptoms of common cold.

Some patients who had contracted TB previously reported being afraid to admit to themselves that they could have contracted the disease again, for fear of going through the experience of treatment again, the study observed.

‘Neighbourhood’ providers and facilities were favoured

Patient’s chosen TB care pathways almost always began with a neighbourhood health care service, which could be an unregistered practitioner, a municipal health centre, a private allopathic doctor or a practitioner of alternatives medicine such as ayurveda, yoga, unani, siddha or homeopathy (AYUSH), found the study. This was largely due to convenience and was the normative HSB in their community.
Patients preferred going to the neighbourhood private clinic for its familiarity and convenience since these clinics were open in the evening after work hours, were more accessible and were easy to use, compared to government facilities.

Early symptoms of TB which were not severe, were most often seen as ‘ordinary’. It was normal for patients with such ‘ordinary’ symptoms to visit the family doctor nearby to seek treatment.

Patients said going to municipal facilities cost money and took up an entire day. We need to go early in the morning to visit the municipal secondary care hospital, where they give us two tablets and ask us to visit again the next day, but an auto rickshaw to the hospital costs Rs 70-80 one way, said a patient.

“If you see the pathways and the distances travelled, the patients who are symptomatic first approach the provider who is closest to home, so that travel is less. They expect their symptoms to be relieved, be it in the public sector or the private sector. But usually there is a lack of facilities and poor infrastructure available locally, where the person resides,” Yatin Dholakia, co-author of the report, told IndiaSpend.

“The provider first approached should be knowledgeable and trained, aware of what diagnostic algorithms are currently being followed,” said Dholakia.

“People should not have to travel for long [to access treatment]. This happens more when trying to access the public health sector,” said Dholakia, “This is because they diagnose (the patient) in one place and refer them to another, depending on where the patient resides. In some cases, people have travelled for more than 200 km over 20-22 days. All this causes delay in diagnosis and increases transmission of tuberculosis.”

“Distances traveled varied depending on type of patients, the provider accessed (public or private), whether the patient suffered from drug-sensitive or drug-resistant TB and the number of providers accessed in the pathway,” said Dholakia. “One DR-TB patient traveled 184 km (1.6 for testing and 182.8 to visit health care providers). He spent 166 days till treatment initiation after visiting seven different providers.”

Diagnosis was usually delayed

Fifty-five percent of the patients interviewed faced delayed diagnosis. Health care providers spent six minutes on average with patients and their history-taking was sketchy, which lengthened the time between first seeking care and diagnosis. These delays could have been avoided if these providers had spent a little more time with patients, taken detailed case histories and looked for symptoms of TB among patients who came from high TB burden localities, said the PLOS study.

Patients also had to visit several providers/health facilities and laboratories before getting a diagnosis. A doctor who had already treated one patient for TB, failed to suspect that she was suffering from TB again. It was only after almost a year involving several visits to public sector facilities that she was diagnosed with XDR-TB.

“For the patients interviewed, the average time taken to diagnose and initiate DR-TB treatment was 87 days. The shortest duration was one month and longest around eight months. For drug-sensitive TB, the duration ranged from 28 to 42 days depending on the previous history of TB and treatment,” Dholakia told IndiaSpend.

Patients interviewed also expressed faith in the public health system. “The government has done extensive research on TB and there are medicines which cure TB. It (TB) is no longer a threat,” the parents of one patient were quoted by the study as saying.

Patients often switched health care providers, hoping they would be given ‘stronger’ medicine

No two patients from the same geographical area had similar avenues of treatment, even if they had started and finished treatment at the same facilities, the study found.

Some patients had changed providers because they did not get better in two or three days. In several cases, patients switched providers because they did not have the patience to wait or the luxury of time for getting better. They needed to go back to work, show up for family events in native villages, or attend school and prepare for exams. They hoped the next doctor would give them ‘stronger’ medicines to make them better, the study said.

At times, providers were changed due to a lack of clear communication about the need for a particular test or medicine, or the need for follow-up after completion of prescribed treatment. In such situations, the patients had assumed that the doctor’s treatment had failed and hence had switched to another.

Sometimes, patients were forced to change providers because they could not afford the cost of the tests advised or the medicines prescribed.

Treatment pathways were often circuitous

Diagnosis and treatment processes were often circuitous, which confused patients. They did not understand why they were made to undergo the same tests at different places and at different times, were referred to different facilities and subjected to changes in their treatment in their extremely weakened state.

To minimise patient movement between providers and thus promote patient adherence, referral systems need to be redesigned, said the study. This would involve simplifying processes in the diagnosis and treatment of DR-TB.

The Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai (MCGM) decided to integrate the private sector for effective treatment of TB and hence started the Public Private Interface Agencies (PPIA) in 2014.

Patients in Mumbai often chose to go to a specific facility for ease of navigation and convenience. However all the providers and facilities accessed by the patients from a particular area did not function as part of the integrated system. This was because the PPIA had brought in only 41% of the mapped doctors and chemists in the wards it was implemented in, into its network.

One patient’s private provider was a part of the PPIA network, hence he was diagnosed with DR-TB and referred to the correct public sector facility within a month. But for another patient, it took six months for him to be diagnosed with XDR-TB, after visiting six different providers and various facilities.

Varying approaches to costs and payment also complicated diagnosis and treatment

Patients also faced dilemmas of costs and payments, as no two facilities operated similarly. For example, directly approaching a private laboratory for diagnostic tests cost money, but going through the MCGM’s PPIA network made tests free, or subsidised, depending on the tests.

Patients had no access to clear information about which facilities or providers served patients free or at subsidised rates.

Many patients being treated for DR-TB in the private sector had to stop treatment or move to the public sector, as they could not afford the treatment.

In some cases, the provider warned patients after they were diagnosed with DR-TB that it would be better to move to the public sector to receive free treatment.

“I was spending Rs 4,000 on medicines on a regular basis. I had come from the village and did not have so much money. After this someone suggested I go to government facilities where I will get free treatment,” the study quoted one patient as saying.

“We have not assessed the costs to the patients. However the cost of diagnosis of DR-TB ranges from Rs 2,500 to Rs 18,000, depending on the tests done. Additionally, periodic tests, x-rays and doctors’ consultation fees need to be considered. Incidental travel and nutrition supplement costs and medicines for management of adverse drug events and reactions need to be taken into account,” says Dholakia.

“If facilities are placed under one roof close to residential areas, and if doctors are trained in appropriate diagnosis and treatment management tools, it would bring down costs for patients. The government does not support travel costs for patients,” he added.

Experts say India can’t end TB without engaging and regulating the private health care sector

When asked whether the patterns found in this study were representative of the situation in all of India, Dholakia said, “Wherever there is a large [unregulated] private sector, there is a delay in diagnosis. Unless these private sectors are involved in Public Private Mix Programs, where the government or public health system sensitises them to the problem of TB, and talks to them about the various facilities available under government programs, there will be problems. This is true for other countries also and not only for India,” says Dholakia.

“This study, along with similar studies published previously all point to the same key messages and tortuous pathways DR-TB patients navigate. The pattern is much worse with drug-resistant TB, which is harder to diagnose and treat,” Prof Madhukar Pai, professor of epidemiology at McGill University in Montreal, told IndiaSpend.

“Since nearly 80% of Indians seek private/informal healthcare, India cannot end TB without engaging with this large, dominant private health sector. The experience in Mumbai, Patna and Mehsana suggests that private providers can be successfully engaged to improve quality of TB care, and to link privately treated patients with free government goods (e.g. including drugs) and benefits (e.g. nutrition supplements). India needs to scale up such private provider engagement models, increase notifications (of TB diagnoses) from the private sector, and improve quality of care in the private sector,” says Pai.

(Kashyap is an intern with IndiaSpend.)

Courtesy : India Spend
 

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