Narendra Modi delivered multiple hate speeches against Indian Muslims during the election campaign. In a particularly inflammatory and dangerous speech in Banswara, Rajasthan, April 22, Modi had directed the term “Ghuspethiye” (a derrogatory term for infiltrators) against Indian Muslims which raised serious concerns about the future of Indian Muslims under a potential third term of Narendra Modi. Consequently, Muslims made meaningful efforts to protect the Indian Constitution- ultimately their lives, livelihoods, and homes entrusting their future in Rahul Gandhi’s “Mohabbat Ki Dukan”.

Even after the election results, in the aftermath, Muslims, India’s largest religious minority have been subjected to hate crimes and violence. Numerous such incidents including mob lynching of Muslim men and demolition of Muslim homes have been carried out as part of punitive retribution by forces who commandeer the state at the union and in several states, aggressively. The message is loud and clear- this is an avenging for all those who opposed Hindu Rashtra.

Four Muslim men have been lynched by a Hindutva mob and cow vigilantes after the election results in Chhatisgarh and Uttar Pradesh, both the BJP (Bhartiye Janata Party) ruled states. Authorities carried out a forced demolition of Muslim homes under questionable legal pretenses in safforonised Madhya Pradesh. Dozens of Muslim homes were bulldozed in the Mandla, Jaora, Ratlam, Seoni, and Morena districts displacing families and heightening tensions deepening the sense of insecurity among the local Muslim population.

However, also in the Congress-ruled state of Himachal Pradesh, a mob chanting “Jai Sri Ram” slogans vandalised a textile shop of a Muslim man in Nahan after he allegedly shared an image of “cattle slaughter” on WhatsApp following Bakra Eid. Local hardline Hindutva organizations gave an ultimatum to seven Muslim traders to vacate their shops within 24 hours and forced the market to shut down. The police investigation revealed that the animal was not a cow. Javed, the Muslim man has been arrested by the police.

Also, in yet another hateful incident in Medak of Telangana, (a state also ruled by the Indian National Congress-INC) Muslims faced targeted attacks by a Hindutva mob on false allegations of cow slaughter leading to widespread fear among the community and injuries to Muslim men. Likewise, hate speech continues with impunity. A BJP leader in Delhi has reportedly threatened to slaughter two lakh Muslims within 48 hours, s statement made, notably, in the presence of the police. This has been all over the news since Jun2 27.

Despite the electoral participation and contribution of Muslims and the promises made during campaigns, political leaders of the INDIA bloc have largely remained silent on these critical issues leaving the Muslim population feeling abandoned and vulnerable.

Indian voters, particularly in the Hindi heartland have rejected the hate propaganda by the BJP. The far-right BJP, in a significant turn of events lost crucial seats such as Ayodhya, despite the successful inauguration of the Ram temple; Muzaffarnagar, known for its communal violence; and Kairana, where Iqra Hasan, a young Muslim woman, received substantial support from Hindu Jats. These electoral outcomes reflect a growing disillusionment with divisive politics and a desire for unity and peace.

Voters chose unity over hate in Durgapur and Banswara, Rajasthan where the Prime Minister had attempted to stoke communal tensions. The electorate rejected divisive narratives resulting in defeat for the BJP from these seats.

Despite clear signals from the electorate, that is the people of India, political leaders including Opposition figures have responded to these ascending hate crimes with a disappointing silence. This is troubling, especially given the crucial role Muslim voters played in shaping electoral outcomes. The Leader of the Opposition (LOP) Rahul Gandhi in particular, with his “Mohabbat Ki Dukan” campaign and “Daro Mat” slogan, is expected to address the issue adequately. His campaign promotes love and courage yet his silence on such a significant issue sabotages these positive messages. This lack of vocal support from him and the Indian National Congress (INC) for targeted Muslim families raises questions about the commitment to the values they espouse.

Many political analysts attribute this silence to a cynical electoral calculus. Parties fear alienating other voter bases by advocating strongly for Muslim rights. This sentiment suggests that Muslims have limited electoral alternatives allowing their issues to be sidelined without consequence. The opposition leaders are symbolically taking the Constitution in hand asserting their dedication to its principles, yet fail to uphold it when it comes to Indian Muslims. This hypocrisy undermines the very foundation of equal rights and justice that the Constitution guarantees revealing a gap between rhetoric and action.

Behind the political silence lies the influence of groups like the RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh) and the broader Hindutva agenda, which prioritizes Hindu nationalism over minority rights. This influence has permeated political strategies, stifling voices within parties that might advocate for inclusive policies and protections for minorities.

Community leaders, human rights organisations, and civil society groups have condemned the violence and called for urgent action to protect Muslim citizens. Political leaders must break their silence, unequivocally condemn violence against Muslims, and take concrete steps to ensure justice for victims and accountability for perpetrators.

The current wave of violence against Muslims in India is not just an issue of communal strife but a critical test of India’s commitment to democracy and pluralism. Muslims are paying the price for voting for secularism and standing against hate. Political leaders must prioritise human rights over electoral calculations, speak out against injustice, and work towards building a society where every citizen can live without fear of persecution based on religion or ethnicity.

The silence of political parties on these critical issues undermines the foundational principles of India’s democracy and risks further polarization. The people of India gave an anti-hate mandate, signaling their desire for unity and tolerance. This mandate reflects a collective stand against divisive politics and communal violence. Political leaders must respect this call by demonstrating courage and moral leadership, standing up for the rights of all citizens, regardless of their religious identity. Only then can India truly fulfill its promise as a secular and inclusive democracy. 

(The author is associated with the Association for Protection of Civil Rights & Spect Foundation)

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are the author’s personal views, and do not necessarily represent the views of Sabrangindia.

Related:

Modi and BJP’s campaign didn’t work in these constituencies: https://sabrangindia.in/did-hate-speech-deliver-victories-for-the-bjp-a-constituency-wise-analysis/

Modi speech during campaign:

Tamil Nadu: Why PM Modi got emotional during his speech in Salem

Karnataka: ‘Can I speak in Hindi’: PM Modi talks about ‘heart-to-heart’ bond in Karnataka

Kerala: ‘Left front will ruin Kerala like it did in other states’: PM Modi targets Vijayan govt in Palakkad

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A primary challenge in conducting accurate exit polls in India is the country’s vast and diverse electorate. With over a billion people from numerous castes, religions, languages, and regional identities, it is immensely difficult to capture a representative sample that accurately reflects the entire population’s voting behaviour. This complexity often results in skewed samples and inaccurate predictions.

Exit polls in India face several methodological challenges. Pollsters must ensure that their sample of respondents is truly representative, balancing factors like urban-rural divides, literacy levels, and socio-economic statuses. Logistical issues such as accessing remote areas and ensuring the safety of pollsters can also introduce biases in data collection, further distorting the results.

Indian voters often exhibit reluctance in revealing their true voting preferences, a phenomenon known as the “shy voter” effect. Cultural norms, fear of political retribution, or a desire to maintain privacy can lead voters to provide false or misleading information to pollsters. This tendency significantly distorts the data collected during exit polls.

The strategic nature of voting in India complicates the accuracy of exit polls. Voters may change their preferences at the last minute based on various factors, including candidate performance, local developments, or last-minute campaign efforts. Additionally, tactical voting—where voters choose a candidate not because they prefer them, but to prevent another candidate from winning—can further complicate predictions. Exit polls, conducted immediately after voting, may not fully capture these dynamics.

The historical performance of political parties and media influence can impact the reliability of exit polls. Media narratives and pre-poll surveys can create biases, influencing voters’ responses during exit polls. Exit pollsters may also be subconsciously influenced by historical trends, leading to biased predictions that favour the ruling party. This bias can create self-fulfilling prophecies, further eroding the accuracy of exit polls.

Let’s examine some notable examples where Indian exit polls failed to match the actual election results:

1. 2004 General Elections: This election stands as one of the most prominent examples of exit poll failure. Most exit polls predicted a comfortable victory for the incumbent BJP-led NDA. However, the Congress-led UPA emerged victorious, securing 218 seats compared to the NDA’s 181. This unexpected outcome highlighted the limitations and biases of exit polls.
2. 2. 2015 Bihar Assembly Elections: Exit polls were split, with some predicting a win for the BJP and its allies, while others foresaw a victory for the Grand Alliance (RJD, JD(U), and Congress). The actual results showed a decisive win for the Grand Alliance, which secured 178 out of 243 seats, contrary to many predictions.
3. 3. 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections: While most exit polls predicted a BJP victory, the extent of the win was grossly underestimated. The BJP won 312 out of 403 seats, a significantly higher number than what most exit polls had suggested.
4. 2019 General Elections: Despite most exit polls predicting a BJP-led NDA victory, the actual results showed an even more decisive win, with the NDA securing 353 seats. The magnitude of the BJP’s victory was again underestimated by many exit polls.
5. 5. West Bengal Assembly Elections 2021: Many exit polls predicted a close contest between the BJP and the ruling TMC. However, the final results showed a sweeping victory for the TMC, which secured 213 out of 294 seats, while the BJP managed only 77 seats. The exit polls failed to capture the TMC’s strong hold on the state.
6. Delhi Assembly Elections 2015 and 2020: In 2015, most exit polls underestimated the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)’s performance, predicting a hung assembly or a slim majority. The AAP ended up winning 67 out of 70 seats. Similarly, in 2020, exit polls predicted a win for AAP, but the actual results were even more lopsided, with AAP winning 62 out of 70 seats, far exceeding the predictions.

The frequent failure of Indian exit polls to predict actual election results highlights the inherent challenges in capturing the voting behaviour of such a diverse and complex electorate. Methodological flaws, voter reluctance, strategic voting, and media biases all contribute to the inaccuracies, often skewing results in favour of the ruling party. As India continues to evolve, so too must the methods used to understand its electorate. Until then, exit polls will remain an intriguing, albeit unreliable, part of the electoral landscape.

Nadeem Khan is a Social Activist associated with Spect Foundation

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