I spent last night in a small Adivasi hamlet in Aarey Forest and it will surely go down as one of the most consequential nights of my lifetime. My first thought was why have I not done this before, and my last thought was I can’t wait to come back again.
 
Vitthal Lad is our Aam Aadmi Party candidate from Jogeshwari East.  He has been a party leader since inception and I was aware he had a lifetime of work on tribal welfare behind him. Last night I learned exactly how  significant and impactful his work has been. After campaigning in Mumbra, I left for Aarey where I was to join Vitthal Bhau for an election meeting in an Adivasi village called Keltichyapada on the hill behind the Unit 18 cow shed, or rather buffalo shed. My colleagues and I navigated through the dense forest to locate this place, and even though it was only 8pm in the evening we couldn’t find a walking soul to show us the way. The small groups of people who worked and lived at the dairy units were largely of North Indian origin and didn’t know much about the exact location of these Adivasi hamlets, called “padas”.  Finally two boys from Keltichyapada came and rescued us from Unit 18 cowshed. Navigable roads are only up to the dairy units and the Adivasi padas, which are only a few hundred yards from the Units, don’t have any road connectivity. In case of medical emergencies they have to carry the patient in their arms for distances ranging from 200 metres to 1 kilometer before they reach a road – and yes this is in Mumbai not some mofussil area. We trekked up a dark hilly path and could see the city lights shining far away in consummate contrast to this silent dense dark jungle. The thrill of a possible wild encounter kept us alert on the way up.

 
We were greeted warmly by the residents of Keltichyapada and the main topic of discussion was the cruel attempt by local Shivsena MLA Ravindra Waikar and the current BJP-Shivsena Government to declare their idyllic village hamlets as slums and redevelop them under the Slum Rehabilitation Project (SRA). Mumbai’s SRA scheme is the most cruel transgression by the “haves” on the “have-nots” wherein a slum is grabbed by a builder, half the residents are declared illegal and the other half are stuffed into small jail like rooms in a ramshackle high-rise and most of their land is used to make a fancy residential complex for the affluent class. The Aam Aadmi Party has vowed to fight the classification of Adivasi Padas as slums. Interestingly, the Senior Police Inspector of Aarey Police station, Ms Pawar, trekked all the way up too, just to witness our small election meeting – methinks the police is still smarting against the complaint I lodged about DCP D S Sawmi for brutality on the night of the tree felling on the proposed car shed site.
 
After the election meeting we walked along a forest path and saw the intrusions on the forest by Force One, an elite anti terror squad that has been given 100 acres in Aarey forest even though experts argue that they could have easily been accommodated on defense land available in Kalina. Buildings made and abandoned by Force One, metal exercise structures, and other such intrusions defaced the forest in an irrational pattern. We were invited for simple tribal meal at Chafyachapada, named after ancient Frangipani Trees (called ‘chafa’ in Marathi and ‘champa’ in Hindi) that grow in this hamlet. I can affirm that the dinner at this ‘Frangipani’ outlet was more soul enriching than what one may have at its namesake 5 star eatery.
 
40 tiny houses (most smaller than an average bedroom), two toilets for men and two for women, a small room for a temple and an anganwadi comprise Chafyachapada. After dinner the women told me how when Vitthal Lad started visiting them 30 years ago there were totally unconnected with the outside world. They were illiterate, owned no paper work, in fact often times they didn’t even name their children using only common local nicknames. Vitthal Lad pushed them towards literacy, towards naming their children, making identity papers. He named all their nameless padas with literally names of the flower, animal, bird, water body or land feature most sighted there, so that they could easily identify with the name. Thus they became Chafyachapada, Kelitchyapada, Morachapada, and so on.

 
The ladies had tears in their when they recounted how not so long ago they were so poor, their children used to find the waste dough thrown into the garbage by a nearby bakery and they would make rough bread out of it. From those times to now, where at least they have become literate enough to do menial jobs, is a journey full of tears and small victories. And they credit Vitthal Lad for holding their hand, making them learn, forcing them to fight for their rights and always having their back. They got electricity only around 7 years ago after a long struggle in government offices, and water just a few years back. They mocked the solar lamp which never worked and other impractical halfhearted schemes of the government. They have lived here for hundreds of years, but now they need No Objection Certificates from outside bodies to even tile their temple porch. A boy recounted how Force One soldiers threatened him when he tried to build a toilet in his own home even though he told them that he was only doing what Prime Minister Narendra Modi asked them to do, and the big film stars like Vidya Balan and Akshay Kumar repeatedly said. The hypocrisy and hollowness of government practices is on crystalline display in Aarey where the lives of Adivasis are being made more and more difficult by an administration that hopes they will finally succumb to the pressure and give up their land.
 
As I was petting a local dog they showed me his scars from a leopard attack and I was amazed how the bitzer survived. Another lady told me how she recently fought a leopard who had grabbed her dog, and they literally had a tug of war till her husband finally flung a brick at the leopard and it relented. The dog is still healing, under ministration of our traditional antidote to all ills, turmeric. Asha Gavit, whose house I stayed in, shared tales of how she herself was attacked by a leopard in her younger days and has scars to prove it. These women were not complaining, they were just matter of fact stating the challenges of their lives. Being children of the forest there have no fear, just a clear sense that they have to share the forest with other inhabitants and occasionally endure clashes.
 
Just hours away from Khojagiri Poornima, the moon shone through the canopy of trees and I had to pinch myself to remember this was not some remote forest but a forest in the heart of Mumbai. For a moment I felt sorry for our politicians and bureaucrats whose greed had blinded them from appreciating this miracle of nature. That was just for a moment, for the rest of the time I was filled by a purpose to stop their malafide designs. In a fraction of a cost of a statue in the sea we can give pucca sustainable ethnic houses to the Adivasis and develop these 27 villages for tourism with indigenous food, handicrafts, music, dance and rituals on display. What a priceless treasure that would be to share with the world.
 

 
It is heartbreaking that instead of preserving the rich lives and culture of Mumbai’s original inhabitants we want to convert them into slum dwellers who are at lowest end of the pecking order, that too in a land of which they were Kings, long before the city was even named and founded.  How are we different from invaders who came and annihilated local populations just to grab the land? If in circa 2019 we haven’t even developed an iota of sensitivity towards preserving culture, of giving justice to the marginalised, of taking our environment seriously, then we are a doomed race.
 
The takeaway from the evening is to keep fighting. These Adivasi women have fought nature, fought leopards, fought the administration, fought discrimination and they still continue to fight, then we Mumbaikers owe them our time and energy to strengthen their fight.
 
Preeti Sharma Menon is the National Executive Member of the Aam Aadmi Party, and has been a champion of the Save Aarey Movement.
 
 

The post A Tryst with Aarey: October 10, 2019 appeared first on SabrangIndia.

सरकार के इस अचानक फैसले से रातोंरात कई लोगों ने भारी रकम गंवाई लेकिन कुछ लोगों ने जम कर पैसे भी बनाए। जिस किसी को इस फैसले की पहले जानकारी मिल गई होगी, उसने भारी रकम बनाई होगी। लिहाजा हमें उन लोगों का विश्लेषण करना होगा, जो इस फैसले से पैसे बना रहे हैं। उनका उन लोगों से अलग हट कर विश्लेषण करना होगा, जिनके पास यह जानकारी नहीं थी। साथ ही उन लोगों के बारे में भी विश्लेषण करना होगा, जिनके पास इसकी इनसाइडर इनफॉरमेशन थी।

लोग भारी डिस्काउंट पर पुराने बड़े नोटों को लेकर खासा मुनाफा कमा रहे हैं। साथ ही पुराने नोटों के बदले अपनी संपत्ति को काफी ऊंची कीमत पर बेच रहे हैं। ऐसी खबरें सुनने को मिल रही हैं दस ग्राम सोने की कीमत 50000 रुपये पर पहुंच गई है। 500 और 1000 के नोटों को 20 से 30 फीसदी डिस्काउंट पर बेचा जा रहा है। यानी अगर 500 का पुराना नोट देंगे तो आपको 350 से 400 रुपये मिलेंगे। ऐसे वक्त में जब लोग पुराने नोटों से पीछा छुड़ाना चाह रहे हैं तो वे कौन लोग हैं जो इन नए नोटों को धड़ाधड़ ले रहे हैं।

इस पूरे ममले में उन एजेंटों को ( उनके पास सरकारी फैसले की जानकारी हो सकती थी और नहीं भी) को फायदा हो रहे हैं जो कम कीमत पर इन नोटों को ले रहे हैं और पूरी कीमत पर बैंकों में जमा कर रहे हैं। दो तरीके हैं जिनसे बड़ी मात्रा  में ये नोट बैंकों में जमा किए जा सकते हैं।
 
कैश डिपोजिट का पहला तरीका  – इस तरीके में किसी भी बैंक भी बगैर किसी टैक्स देनदारी के ढाई लाख रुपये जमा किए जा सकते हैं। इसलिए एजेंट उन लोगों को अपने पैसे देंगे जो सुस्त पड़े अपने खातों में उनकी ब्लैक मनी जमा करेंगे। यानी 10-20 फीसदी कमीशन पर काला धन जमा करने वालों की चांदी हो जाएगी।

कैश डिपोजिट का दूसरा तरीका – जिन कारोबारियों के पास फिजिकल कैश इन हैंड, अकाउंट में कैश इन हैंड से कम होगा वे निश्चित तौर पर पुराने नोट लेंगे ताकि पूरी कीमत पर बैंकों पर जमा कर सकें। सवाल यह है हम कैश इन हैंड से अकाउंट में कैश इन हैंड की तुलना क्यों कर रहे हैं। इसलिए कि इस तरह के कैश रखने वाले लोगों को मोदी के फैसले की पहले से जानकारी ने फायदा पहुंचाया है। आगे हम इसका विस्तृत विश्लेषण कर आपको दिखाएंगे कि यह कैसे हुआ लेकिन पहले सूचना की लीकेज की संभावना का विश्लेषण करें। 500 और 1000 के पुराने नोट बंद करने के फैसले में बड़े पैमाने पर पॉलिसी मेकर, राजनीतिक नेता, ब्यूरोक्रेट्स और प्रिटिंग प्रेस में नोट छापने वाले कर्मचारी रहे होंगे। यह मानव प्रवृति है कि इस तरह की ऊंची वैल्यू वाली सूचना अपने नजदीकियों को बताए। इसलिए सैकड़ों लोग रहे होंगे, जिन्हें यह सूचना रही होगी। क्या ऐसे लोगों के व्यवहार का विश्लेषण इस सूचना के आधार पर किया जा सकता है।

मान लीजिये कि आप ऐसे काला धन जमा करने वाले शख्स हैं जिसके पास यह सूचना है कि दस दिन में 500 और 1000 के पुराने नोट बंद हो जाएंगे। आप क्या करेंगे। पहला काम यह करेंगे कि तुरंत इन नोटों को निकालना शुरू करेंगे या खर्च करना शुरू करेंगे। बैंक में जमा करने पर टैक्स अधिकारियों की नजर पड़ सकती है इसलिए तुरंत गोल्ड, सिल्वर, लग्जरी आइटम खरीदेंगे। बिजनेस और ट्रैवल खर्चों को निपटाएंगे। पर्सनल खर्च की देनदारी चुकाएंगे और दूसरे महंगे आइटम खरीदेंगे। 

जब आप इस तरीके से कुछ पैसा बचा लेंगे या इसे और तरीके से निवेश कर देंगे तो आप पहले से हासिल इस सूचना का फायदा लेना चाहेंगे। आप अपनी सारी रकम जो 500 और 1000 में है निकालेंगे और इसे खर्च करेंगे। मान लीजिये आपने दस लाख रुपये निकाले और इसे महंगे आइटमों पर खर्च कर दिया। निवेश किया या अपने खर्चे निपटा लिए। अब आपके पास कोई फिजिकल कैश नहीं है। सिर्फ पेपर पर कैश बैलेंस है। एक बार बैन अनाउंस होने पर आप इन दस लाख को 7-8 लाख की कीमत पर खरीद सकते हैं और फिर बैंक अकाउंट में जमा कर सकेत हैं। इनसाइडर इनफॉरमेशन की बदौलत आप पहले से ही दो-तीन लाख की नकदी कमा चुके हैं। यानी इनसाइडर इनफॉरमेशन का फायदा यह मिलेगा कि कैश इन हैंड बगैर अकाउंट में दिखाए बढ़ जाएगा।

कहा जा रहा है कि सरकार के इस फैसले की तैयारी 12-15 महीने शुरू हो गई थी। यानी यह सूचना काफी पहले विशेषाधिकार प्राप्त ब्यूरोक्रेट्स, राजनेताओं, आरबीआई स्टाफ को रही होगी। इतने दिनों में लोगों ने बगैर अकाउंट मे दिखाए कैश इन हैंड बढ़ाया होगा।

एक मोटे अनुमान के मुताबिक जिनके पास सरकार के फैसले की पहले से सूचना होगी, उन्होंने 60000 करोड़ रुपये का मुनाफा कमाया होगा।

सरकार इन मुनाफाखोरों को कैसे पकड़े?
ऐसे धंधेबाजों पकड़ने का सबसे अच्छा यह तरीका है कि सरकार सारे कारोबारियों, कंपनी और फर्मों से पिछले एक महीने के दौरान अकाउंट में कैश इन हैंड की पोजीशन बताने को कहे। अगर पिछले पांच साल के ट्रेंड की तुलना में 8 नवंबर 2016 को कैश इन हैंड में 20 से 30 फीसदी की बढ़त मिलती है तो साफ हो जाएगा कि इसका गलत फायदा उठाया गया है। ऐसे में सरकार जुर्माना लगाना शुरू कर सकती है।

60,000 करोड़ घोटाले की वह रकम है जो सिर्फ 500 और 1000 के पुराने नोटों को बैन करने की इनसाइडर जानकारी की वजह से इकट्ठा हुए। इस लेख में इस मुद्दे को शामिल ही नहीं किया गया है कि इस सूचना से काले धन वालों ने कितना फायदा उठाया होगा। ऐसे लोगों को कितना फायदा हुआ होगा जो अपना धन टैक्स हैवन्स में और अन्य परसंपत्तियों में ट्रांसफर कर देते हैं।
 
(लेखिका आम आदमी पार्टी की प्रवक्ता हैं। इस लेख में व्यक्त विचार उनके अपने हैं।)

The post नोट बंदी की जानकारी रखने वाले धंधेबाजों ने कूटे 60000 करोड़ appeared first on SabrangIndia.

Lot of people have lost money overnight while some have made money post this decision. Anyone who had prior information of this would surely be on the profiteering side. Hence we will have to analyse set of people who are making money by this decision to separate out people who had no prior information of this and second set of people who had insider information with them.

Image: Janta ka Reporter

People are making profit by accepting OHD at discount or selling their assets at very high price in lieu of OHDs. We are hearing news of gold selling at Rs. 50000 per 10 gram in exchange of OHD and old 500 and 1000 notes selling at 20-30% discount (Old Rs. 500 notes being exchanged with new currency of Rs 350 to 400). At a time when people want to get rid of old notes, a fundamental question comes to mind – who are these people accepting the old notes and what will they do with such old notes.

They are the agents (with or without prior information) who will ultimately earn huge profit by depositing it in the banks for full value. There are two ways in which large sum of these notes can be deposited in the banks by these agents:

Cash deposit method number 1: OHD up to Rs. 2.5 lakhs can be deposited by any individual without getting any tax demand. Hence, these agents will scout for poor people who will deposit the black money in their almost non functional bank accounts to earn a 10-20% commission on the amount deposited. Later these poor people will slowly withdraw the money and hand it over to the agents after deducting their commission.

This is equivalent of redistribution of wealth to the extent of 20% from large money hoarders to the poor people of the society. If these set of agents knew the decision beforehand, they would have never paid 10-20% to the poor people to convert it post the announcement. Hence we may classify this as profiteering by agents with no insider information.

Cash deposit method number 2: Large size deposits by businessman, firms and companies to the extent of cash in hand in the books of accounts as of 8 Nov, 2016. There are two category of businessmen who have cash in hand in their books of accounts: A) Physical cash in hand equal to or more than the declared cash in hand in books of accounts; B) Physical cash in hand significantly less than the declared cash in hand in books of accounts.

A) Physical cash in hand equal to or more than the declared cash in hand in books of accounts: A businessman who is having physical cash in hand equivalent to or higher than the cash in hand declared in books of accounts will never accept any old notes at any price as he will not be able to deposit these OHDs due to limitation of declared cash in hand. Hence, we may classify this as no profiteering by agents.

B) Physical cash in hand significantly less than the declared cash in hand in books of accounts: A businessman who is having physical cash in hand significantly less than the cash in hand declared in books of accounts can always accept the OHDs from market at discount to deposit it into his bank account for full value. The question is why will he have less cash in hand compared to what is his cash position in books of accounts. This raises suspicion about these people having prior information of the OHD ban. Hence, we may classify this as profiteering by agents with suspected insider information.

To cross check our suspicion, let us first analyse the possibility of leakage of this information. A move to ban the Rs 500 and 1000 notes would have involved lot of policy makers, politicians, bureaucrats, hundreds of employees of currency printing press involved in actual printing of new notes.

It is human tendency to pass on this privileged information to your near and dear ones by those involved in this process. Hence, there would have been hundreds of people with knowledge of this ban. Whether any of these were involved in front running on this information can be analysed by first understanding the expected behaviour of person with prior information of the OHD ban decision.

Expected behaviour of person with insider information: Suppose, you are a large black money hoarder and you get the information that Rs. 500 and 1000 notes will be banned after 10 days. What will be your first reaction to benefit from this insider information? Below are the steps which a greedy frontrunner is expected to take to benefit from the insider information:

Step 1: You will immediately try to dispense off the OHDs. You may do so by either depositing it in your bank account or by spending it immediately. However, depositing it in bank is not a solution as this will be noticed by the taxman and you may have to pay tax and penalty on it. Hence, the only solution is to go and spend this money on gold, silver, other precious items, business expenses, personal expenses etc. After doing this, you are left with no old notes and hence you are happy that you will not lose any money after this decision is announced 10 days later.

Step 2: Once you have avoided loss by spending/investing your money, you may be little greedier and will try and think of ways to make money based on this privileged information. Hence, only option left is to withdraw your entire bank balance and spend/invest all withdrawn notes of Rs. 500 and 1000 immediately. Assuming you have withdrawn Rs. 10 lacs from bank and invested this physical cash in precious items (without bill), cash business expenses etc.

Now you are left with no physical cash and a cash balance of Rs. 10 lacs on papers. Once the ban is announced, you may buy these notes worth Rs. 10 lacs at hefty discounts for Rs 7-8 lacs and deposit it back in your bank account against your accounting cash in hand position. You have clearly made a Rs. 2-3 lacs profit on Rs. 10 lacs transaction with the help of insider information.

Hence, to benefit from the insider information, one is expected to increase his cash in hand position in his books of accounts while having no cash physically.

Was there a widespread profiteering from this insider information?
As per government, preparations were on for this for last 10 months. Hence the decision would have been known 12-15 months back itself to selected bureaucrats, politicians, RBI staff etc. To benefit from this move, one should have immediately started to increase his cash in hand position in books of accounts by withdrawing maximum cash from banks (and invest/spend it on his cash business requirements, gold, diamond and other precious item purchases). If there was a large scale profiteering, there should have been a larger than usual cash withdrawal from banking system by all those trying to profit from this insider information. For this, let us try to look at the currency withdrawal by public over last one year and compare it to the withdrawal in previous 4-5 years to identify if there was an unusual pattern in this.

Table 1:

Chart 1:

Chart 2:

As seen in chart 2 above, currency with public increased at an annual average rate of 10.8% in last 5 years as against this years’ 17.7%. This is almost 70% higher than the usual % growth for last 5 years.

Chart 1 shows that currency withdrawal this year was unusually higher at Rs. 2.56 Lac crores when compared to the last 5 year average of Rs. 1.16 Lac crores.

However, there was an income declaration scheme under which Rs. 65000 crore of black money was deposited/declared by black money hoarders in September. Hence, the current year withdrawal of Rs. 2.56 lacs crore was a net cash withdrawal figure after a deposit of Rs. 65000 crore under income declaration scheme. Adjusting for this, there was a cash withdrawal of Rs. 3.21 Lacs crore this year versus Rs. 1.16 lacs crore average in last 5 years (Refer to chart 3). Hence, currency withdrawals this year were a whooping 2.05 lacs crore higher than the usual number.

Assuming that if this fake cash in hand accounting position is deposited back by scamsters by purchasing the old notes at 30% discount, this would mean a Rs. 60000 crore benefit for the fraudsters involved in this front-running.

The chart above clearly shows that there was something suspicious about the way the currency withdrawals spiked up over last 1 year which worried almost everyone including RBI and economists. RBI had to resort to aggressive liquidity infusion in banking system by way of open market operations starting March this year to counter the unusual currency withdrawals which were puzzling even for RBI.

How do you catch the frontrunners involved in this currency scam?
The best way for the government to catch these fraudsters is to ask for the cash in hand position in the accounting books of all the businessman, firms and companies (who have deposited large amount of old notes now) for last 1 year. If there is a many times increase (In excess of 20-30%) in the cash in hand on books as of 8 November 2016 when compared to last 5 year trend, it will prove a clear case of wrongdoing and strict action including penalties should be initiated against such persons, firms or companies.

And this 60,000 crore is only one resultant scam because of insider information the currency ban. This article does not cover the benefits accrued by black money hoarders who used advance information of the currency ban to safely park their black money into assets and tax havens.

(The author is a senior AAP spokesperson. The views expressed here are solely the her own. )

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