Ghalib could equally have been describing the situation in Gaza today, where the ongoing violence– both the brutal attack by Hamas on Israeli communities and the genocidal response by Israel – have strong parallels to this dark chapter from the colonial past.

What began as a mutiny by Hindu and Muslim soldiers of the East India Company over cartridges greased with cow and pig fat, which hurt their religious sentiments, soon erupted into extreme violence. Indian civilians and sepoys vented their rage on indignities suffered under exploitative Company Raj by targeting  British settlements and garrisons.

From Kanpur to Jhansi and Delhi, rebels enacted horrific slaughter of British civilians and prisoners, including women and children, throughout the summer of 1857. Tales of rebels gang-raping English governesses and violating high-born British ladies dominated the British press.

In the Times, a letter stated that “our ladies have been dragged naked through the streets by the rabble of Delhi. Quiet ministers of the gospel have been murdered. Their daughters have been cut into snippets and sold piecemeal about the bazaar”. The Illustrated London News painted “a ghastly picture of rapine, murder, and loathsome cruelty worse than death”.

Britain reacted in May 1857 towards its colonized Indians much as Israel has done in October 2023 to the Palestinians– with fury and extreme overreaction. After the British put down the rebellion, soldiers and officers were allowed days of reprisals and retribution against any Indians suspected of collaboration.

Eyewitness accounts and historians estimate thousands were shot dead in bazaars, civilians used for target practice, and villages were burnt to the ground. No mercy was shown to innocent Indian commoners for the uprising as they were slaughtered in their homes regardless of age or gender. Bodies lay rotting for days in the streets of the ruined cities.

“Delhi meant the Fort, the Chandni Chowk, the daily bazaar near Jama Masjid, the weekly trip to the Jamuna bridge, the annual Fair of the Flower-sellers. These five things are no more. Where is Delhi now? Yes, there used to be a city of this name in the land of India”, wrote Ghalib. Today, after relentless Israeli bombing, one can say in similar vein – ‘Yes, there used to be once a place called Gaza in the land of Palestine’.

Apart from quenching a thirst for revenge, the larger aim of the British colonial rulers was to render entire populations too terrified to ever rebel again. However, if the aftermath of 1857 in India offers any lessons, it is that such brutal retaliation almost always fails in fully breaking the resistance.

By all accounts, the ferocity of the British crackdown on Indian cities left smouldering hatred against the foreign rulers. Within a generation, Indians were gearing up for the rise of the Indian Independence movement under Gandhi and others.

Similarly, Israel’s vengeful attempt to ‘eliminate’ Hamas is only bound to fail as the latter is less an organization and more the expression of desperation of the Palestinian population. Until Palestinian demands are addressed meaningfully, future rounds of violence remain almost inevitable.

If this potentially endless war without any winners is to be resolved, there will have to be a shift in paradigms on both sides of the divide. Israel, for example, will have to realize it can never live in peace and protect its citizens as long as the Palestinians are not given a full state of their own to run and live in as a free people.

On the Palestinian side too, it is time to recognize that they cannot win as long as they consider military means as the only way to liberation. After seven decades of armed struggle they have little to show in terms of gains in territory, freedom, resources, or power, while losing thousands of their own to brutal Israeli reprisals.

The extreme asymmetry in power makes it impossible for Hamas or any other militant group to outright defeat Israel through violent attacks. Israel possesses one of the most powerful professional militaries globally, equipped with cutting-edge weapons, sophisticated defence systems, and clear battlefield dominance.

What the experience of the Indian struggle for independence from British rule after 1857 indicates is that perhaps the Palestinians too need their own Gandhi today. While Gandhi described the rebels of 1857 as ‘true patriots’ he also correctly recognized that, when faced with a vastly superior military power,  the moral authority of non-violent movements can successfully challenge oppressive regimes.

Gandhi demonstrated how mass non-cooperation, civil disobedience and willingness to abstain from violent retaliation can build enormous global opinion and internal pressure for change.

While adopting Gandhian methods looks incredibly difficult under the harsh apartheid-like reality of Israeli rule, organized non-violent protests perhaps offer Palestinians their best hope to erode the foundations of Israeli occupation in the longer term. It denies the occupier any ethical grounds or political/national security justifications to continue subjugation, while mobilising worldwide support for the struggle.

Given its different historical trajectory as well as cultural and political milieu obviously it is very unlikely that a Gandhi-like figure will emerge in Gaza any time soon. However – at a minimum – it is certainly possible to reimagine the Palestinian freedom movement.

Into one that that is far less dependent on support from countries like Iran or Qatar with their own geo-political axes to grind and more in sync with millions of nameless people worldwide, who passionately support the Palestinian cause for reasons of justice and anti-colonialism.

And into a movement that harnesses a much wider range of Palestinian skills and political processes than those required for digging tunnels or using hostages to win small concessions. And surely one that is far more democratic and inclusive and not so dominated by conservative, hot-headed, bearded men obsessed with the cult of martyrdom.

Who knows? Maybe someday the women and children of Palestine – who have suffered the most all these decades from the violence-  could collectively turn out to be the ‘Gandhi’ that the Palestinian movement needs? Imagine that, an all-female leadership – with solidarity action from across the globe – winning freedom for Palestine!

Wishful thinking? Perhaps yes, but in the nightmare that Gaza is today, a dream – even the wildest one –  could be the spark for meaningful change.

As Ghalib himself would have said:

“ham ko maalūm hai jannat kī haqīqat lekin
dil ke ḳhush rakhne ko ‘ġhālib’ ye ḳhayāl achchhā hai”

“I know very well the reality of heaven, but Ghalib,
The very thought keeps the heart content”

Satya Sagar is a journalist and public health worker. He can be reached at sagarnama@gmail.com

Courtesy: https://countercurrents.org

The post Yes, there was once a place called Gaza appeared first on SabrangIndia.

I soon realized 2050 is also when the ‘Hindu Rashtra’ –the mythical land of Hindu supremacy – which I prefer to call ‘Gobar Rashtra’ -or ‘Bullshit Nation’ –  will be fully established, as per my neighbor Mishraji’s claim. He should know, as it is his Rashtra after all – shared with a few Singhs and Agarwals – the rest of the nation comprised of second class citizens.

So, in 2050 when the Gobar Rashtra is finally and formally announced, in other words Amit Shah is crowned Emperor of Hindustan forever, – bingo! – global warming will incinerate him and all his followers to ashes, like dried cow fertilizer in fire! And that will leave the rest of us at peace to chase the latest Apple gizmos with our meagre savings.

Ok … I agree the rising temperature in New Delhi – both literally and politically- has started affecting my brain badly. But the point of recounting this loony idea of global warming zapping the Gobar Rashtra is simply that:

a) There are hell of a lot of other things happening in India and globally that are worse than a bunch of right-wing thugs winning (or stealing) elections. I mean it is not the end of the world like climate change threatens to be. So, let us put the 2019 Indian election results in some perspective.

b) To think of events and trends we don’t like as doomsday scenarios is invitation for personal paralysis. There is no point in giving up well before the enemy has stabbed you in the heart, shot you in the brain and poisoned your digestive system for good measure. We will fight these blokes and ‘blokinis’ (the ugly Sadhvis I mean) till the very end.

c) The real challenge we face is what are we supposed to do between now and 2050, when all life ends – it promises to be the longest 30 years ever in human history. It is a good idea to start working immediately.

One reason I am compelled to dwell on this theme of global warming and Gobar Rashtra is really because of a conversation I had a few days ago with a journalist in New Delhi. It went something like this:

“How are you?”, she said. An innocuous enough question.

Despite the terrible heat that afternoon, my polite response was, ‘I am quite well, thank you’.

“Oh! You are fine despite the election results?” she retorted, with an accusatory look, reserved for traitors who survive in the midst of a massacre.

Taken aback, all I could mutter was ‘Well, I am sorry I am not yet dead”, before moving on.

I understood she was deeply upset, but the assumption behind her question was also disturbingly strange – the sweeping victory of Narendra Modi in the 2019 elections meant everything was lost in the battle against Saffron Fascism now. And the way to deal with the situation was to roll in dust and writhe with visible pain. I suppose the logic was, such public display of suffering would magically convert into a national and even global moral force, that would oust Modi and Co.  from power.

I quite strongly beg to differ. The way to beat Saffron Fascism does not lie in self-flagellation, lamentation and going around looking like a martyr well before someone has actually killed you.  A better response may be to do something about it through brutally honest, self-critical analysis; good quality research; building organization; and relentless engagement with social issues.

I mean is there any shortage of battles to be fought in this dump of a nation that India has been for so long? Even as I write this, the headline news on my TV screen is of over 100 children in Bihar’s Muzaffarpur who have allegedly died of encephalitis – I say allegedly because no one still has a clue what’s really happening. On the other hand, in Bengal doctors are striking because – forgive the pun – patients have been striking them too often. The truth being that both doctors and patients struggle routinely with overcrowded hospitals, abysmal infrastructure, shortage of health personnel – apart from lack of trust between all involved.

In other news, there are people getting stabbed in a metro like Chennai, fighting over meagre supplies of water as industries and hotels shut down due to the crisis. In Bundelkhand the drought situation is far worse, but they have no software firms to close down, so the media ignores them completely.

While epidemics and droughts happen once in a while, on a more routine basis a huge number of problems plague Indian citizens – stark poverty, malnutrition, air pollution, road accidents, occupational health hazards, ecological degradation, violence against women, exploitation of children, caste discrimination – the list is truly endless.

Not one of these issues is going to figure on the agenda of the Gobar Rashtra types – in fact their aim is to obfuscate and hide the real causes of many of these problems – from wealth inequality, the racism of Hindu upper castes, corporate manipulation of policy making and in the more global context – India’s growing role as the ‘coolie’ of US and Western imperialism.

If all these burning issues are going to go completely unaddressed by the incumbent government or politicians- who exactly is supposed to douse them? Can this be an opportunity for those opposed to the Gobar Rashtra to do something about it? I know you and I are not in power and we have very few resources on hand – but how the hell do you expect to change political realities or come to power any day, if not by tackling these problems now?

While many of the issues mentioned above are typically linked to ensuring efficient governance or allocation of resources – there are larger conceptual issues also that need to be taken up by those, who may not be able to put boots on the ground but can apply mind to complex questions.  These are the so-called ‘narrative’ – the big and long picture –  that motivates and guides people to work, converting them into unpaid rebels for a cause – whatever that cause may be.

Do we have a clear conception of what is India, where it is coming from and where do we want it to go? What exactly is our story of India – beyond the tired rhetoric of ‘unity in diversity’, the pretense that ‘all Indians are born equal’ or the fantasy that all will be well ‘if only the Constitution were properly implemented’? Does India need to remain one country or a loose federation of many nations? How about declaring Adivasis as the original people of India and registering everyone else as foreign citizens? What about forging a political union with the rest of South Asia? How is the surge of right-wing fascism in India linked to similar trends around the world?  Can we shut down Facebook and Twitter completely to recover our peace of mind while denying the enemy their favorite weapons of mass distraction?

How do we beat the ‘stickiness’ of the caste system, especially in its graded inequality avatar – in which the oppressed constantly turn against each other?Can we pass a law to confiscate all savarna property – since they claim to be born ‘superior’, why do they need any additional form of wealth?  What are those ‘bunch of thoughts’ and set of actions we need to flush Saffron Fascism down the toilet sink? Do we know enough about our opponents and how they operate for us to be able to strategize their defeat?

Some things we do know, among them being what drives the hardcore Hindutva activist –  primarily a quest for savarna or upper-caste Hindu supremacy. This is sought to be achieved by whipping up nostalgia for ancient ‘Vedic’ glory, high-decibel claims of making India a global power and a pseudo-nationalism, which aims to pulverize Pakistan and all other ‘foes of the nation’ – with sheer sound energy.

That these characters are essentially cowards and bullies is evident from their using Indian Muslims and other religious minorities as scapegoats to cover up their own lack of talent in anything except telling cock and bull stories or doing hit-and-run attacks on unarmed targets.  In fact, it is precisely their deep sense of inferiority and weakness,that provokes them into exaggerated displays of patriotic frenzy and tall claims about their own size, strength or influence. ‘Where was your holy Vishnu chakra when Mahmud Ghazni came raiding Gujarat? No, the Congress was not in power then, but Amit Shah and Modi’s ancestors must have surely been in hiding!’

And while on the subject, let me say what I really think about the very idea of the ‘Hindu’a.k.a ‘Gobar Rashtra’. It is nothing but a cunning myth, that has been created by savarna ideologues to rally supporters and scare opponents. “Ooh! The Hindu Rashtra cometh – lefties, Muslims, Christians, Adivasis, Dalits – go hide!”

No, I am not at all  denying the growing assertion of Saffron Fascist groups all around or the dangers they pose – particularly to minority populations- but only pointing  to the psychological warfare dimension  behind the term ‘Hindu Rashtra’. The more you use the term as if it were a reality, the faster it becomes a reality – like an ancient Hindu demon that springs to life with every drop of blood you spill from it. The very first step in resisting the ‘Hindu Rashtra’ is to just ignore it – stop giving it any recognition or currency – cut off its supply of oxygen in the form of free publicity. If you want, call it the ‘Gobar Rashtra’ like I do.

And instead of getting mesmerized like frogs before a snake – do realize if you can stay calm and coolly deconstruct these Knickers from Nagpur, who want to reestablish Peshwa rule in India – they are an eminently beatable lot. The British whipped the Peshwas so badly two centuries ago that they remain the best of friends till today – there is nary a whimper against our most recent colonial masters from these ‘warrior Brahmins’.

And while I don’t have much hope from the Gobar Rashtra’s leftist or centrist opponents, who are too confused or compromised today, I do think it is only a matter of time before their bluff will be called by new political forces rising from Indian soil – aided by all of us taking up as big a part of the puzzle as we can handle in one go.

And I think we can easily do all this well in time before 2050. We just can’t allow the Amit Shahs of the world to have their gobar cake and heat it too!

Satya Sagar is a public health worker and journalist who can be reached at sagarnama@gmail.com

Courtesy: Counter Current

The post ‘Global Warming meets ‘Gobar Rashtra’ appeared first on SabrangIndia.

In an era where national elections have become a strange cross between an episode of Big Boss and twenty-twenty cricket, it has become quite difficult to take the end results very seriously. This is even more so when, there is widespread suspicion of the poll itself being rigged through massive deletion of names from voter lists and possible tampering with the Electronic Voting Machines (EVM) used[i].

Yet, what does one really do when, a man you think is a hate-mongering demagogue, devious fool and selfie-obsessed megalomaniac becomes the Prime Minister of your country for the second time in a row? And that too, returns with a thumping majority in parliament – so bloody thumping it feels like King Kong dancing on your dinner table!

Well, the first thing you do is recover your balance (after a few stiff ones) and ask some very basic questions about WTF is really happening? Did a majority of Indians vote on real issues and in their own best interests or were they manipulated through fake news, slick marketing and heavy doses of emotional blackmail?  Were they swayed by Hindu extremist sentiment and hardline nationalism and if so why? Why are Modi’s opponents disunited and in such a mess – or are they reflecting some other truth about the state of Indian polity today?

National policies everywhere are shaped by a cabal of clever ideologues, corporate lobbies and even foreign powers –so does this election make any difference to the lives of voters? What are the implications of Modi Regime 2.0? What is anyone, who wants change, supposed to do?
That’s a mouthful of questions, but there can be even more and here I will attempt to answer some of them, as briefly as possible.

Why did Narendra Modi win?
Elections emerged historically as a means of obviating the role of violence, fear and hatred in bringing about transitions of power in human societies. Every now and then though, all three make cameo appearances in the theater of participatory democracy, sending scared voters sheep-like into the arms of a benign-faced, butcher-in-chief, waiting with sharpened knives.

And so they did in the 2019 Indian elections too – a very mysterious terrorist strike killing 40 security forces in Indian Kashmir, a dubious retaliatory attack by the Indian Air Force on Pakistan and talk of possible use of nuclear weapons between the two countries. Well before the first votes were cast, incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi had cast himself as a warrior, pretending  the Indian military’s exploits were all his very own. All this was backed up further by massive amounts of money power, fake news, crude invectives and deployment of majoritarian dog whistles.

The gamble paid off handsomely. Finally, when the results came in Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party, a shrill advocate of pseudo-nationalism, saw its tally of seats in Parliament rise well above the majority needed to form government. Sweeping aside all other debates, concerns, basic needs across the country large sections of the public seem to have voted Modi as supreme leader for the next five years, during which he and his coterie of corporate fixers, will shape everything from education to economic policy, affecting the lives of 1.3 billion Indians.

Where did the Opposition lose out?
While using the ‘trauma of Pulwama’ to gathere votes Modi also turned the elections into a presidential-style contest, claiming the image of a ‘strong and decisive’ leader. His main opponent – Rahul Gandhi of the Congress – despite a spirited campaign and a great party manifesto emphasizing solutions to public problems, could respond adequately – mainly also because he refused to  fight Modi’s war hysteria with any kind of counter hysteria. While he focused a lot on Modi’s alleged corruption or incompetence, Rahul also failed to offer a compelling vision of his own for India’s future – or at least communicate it to the population in an effective manner.

In other words, the results were really as much a rejection by the Indian public, smitten with Modi,  of all the alternatives presented by his opponents, as an endorsement of Modi himself. Overall, ‘Brand Modi’, burnished by outrageous propaganda, seems to have trumped every other negative factor working against the BJP, including record unemployment, crisis in agriculture and the effects of the disastrous demonetization and GST policies.

Aiding Modi’s campaign further was also the complete inability of opposition parties to present a united front against the BJP – with petty political considerations and even big egos coming in the way. To use an analogy from twenty-twenty cricket, Modi was handed a free six off the last ball by his quarrelling rivals, when all he needed was just one run.

At a more deeper level the biggest weakness of Modi’s political opponents was they did not have a coherent answer to Modi or the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh’s increasingly ascendant idea of ‘Hindutva’ – that claims India should belong exclusively to Hindus, with all other religious denominations accepting their status as second-class citizens. The opponents of the BJP and RSS, including the Congress party,were unable to counter this by popularizing the Indian Constitution’s secular nature nor convincingly connect up in any way with the grand anti-imperialist legacy of the Indian freedom struggle. Things have come to a pass where members of the BJP, including currently elected MPs, openly celebrate Nathuram Godse, who murdered Mahatma Gandhi – the greatest leader of India’s struggle for independence.

At yet another level, barring some state governments, non-BJP parties do not seem to evoke much public confidence when it comes to delivering good governance – whether health, education, infrastructure and so on. Also, while almost all politicians operating nationally are there only to get power and steal from the state treasury – it is only non-BJP ones[ii] who get painted as being corrupt by the ‘Modified’ media. In the case of the BJP such theft is cleverly blurred from public view by saffron scarves and loud slogans of ‘Jai Shri Ram’. Either the opposition folks should get a suitable slogan to cover up their thievery or try to stop stealing altogether if they can[iii].

What next for India’s Opposition?
Surprising as it may sound, I think while Modi and BJP have won nationally, they are going to lose steadily at the state level in the coming months and years. And this is simply because the same people who voted for Modi to be PM are not necessarily going to vote for his proxies in their own states. There is a deep dissatisfaction on the ground against many BJP-led governments, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state. If the BJP’s opponents unite and put together a good alternative set of policies, with a clear leadership, they can beat the BJP in any future election at the state level.

Non-BJP parties, which are already in power in different states around the country should also offer examples of good governance and delivering genuine welfare to their people in order to break the carefully constructed myth of Modi  as some kind of ‘genius’ on economic development or good governance.

At the same time, it must be pointed out here that, while most of the Modi government’s policies have been disasters there are some that are working in several places. The BJP’s opponents should study these success stories – building of toilets, provision of electricity and gas cylinders, improvement of infrastructure etc. and support them too, if they are really beneficial to the public. A blind strategy of opposing everything done by BJP governments, is neither good for public welfare nor will it improve the opposition’s public credibility.

BJP as the old Congress?
While Modi and Amit Shah have often talked about a ‘Congress-mukt Bharat’ ironically, the fact is that it is the BJP itself,which has become an updated, more ruthless and obviously more communal version of the Congress of the seventies and eighties. It is not a coincidence at all, that a vast number of BJP MPs and MLAs, are in fact former Congress operators, who jumped ship to protect their personal interests.

Interestingly, though Modi is a gaudy farce compared to the grand tragedy that Indira Gandhi was, the comparisons between the two do have some validity. Like Indira, Modi too is a leader much larger than his own party, brooking no dissent and eliminating all competition – including from senior leaders, who founded the BJP. Indira Gandhi, when cornered by her opponents, also imposed the infamous Emergency – a drastic move that one can easily see Modi emulate if challenges to his power mount in the years ahead.

What about Rahul Gandhi’s Congress now (let’s call it Congress RG, now that BJP has become the old Congress!)?Rahul, though hobbled by the toxic legacy of his party (which he should completely disown), has tried to bring the focus of Indian politics to social welfare, decentralization of power and respect for diversity – so the future surely belongs to him. His stature can only grow as the Indian public understands what he is trying to do better and figure out that Modi has sold them snake oil with dollops of venom in it.

The trick for Rahul, to rebuild his party, is to work towards much greater ideological clarity, attract good people with political talent, be in regular touch with the grassroots and do effective street-level agitations on burning national issues. However, it is difficult to see the Congress RG get back to power in a national election, without a lot of coalition building and willingness to share power with other players. If they fail other non-BJP political forces will have to rise to fill the slot of an effective national opposition.

Was Modi’s victory a vote for ‘Hindutva’?
Yes, it was but no one knows to what extent and how explicitly. As mentioned before there were many other political factors involved.

But honestly what the hell does that really mean in a country, where Hindu majoritarianism has always been an implicit part of mass politics, since Indian independence from British rule, with all major political parties – from right to left – led by upper-caste Hindus? No Muslim, Sikh, Christian or for that matter Dalit/ Adivasi politician –could have won any national election on their own – even in the period when the Indian polity was supposedly far more ‘secular’ than it is today.

And let us face it – while the concept of Hindutva has today attracted people across many castes – it is ultimately meant to uphold the privileges of the ‘savarnas’ – the Hindu upper castes, because it is their definition of ‘Hindu’ that dominates.

And this domination is enforced through the mysterious idea of the ‘Hindu Rashtra’, a savarna utopia seductive to its followers and frightening to everyone else, that has  been around for over a century or more in various avatars. For most purposes, it is an instrument of permanent fear to keep the ‘tukde tukde gang’ and their ilk in line. In fact it is quite like Narendra Modi himself,  a macabre ‘Phantom of the Vedic Opera’, that terrorizes everyone from a distance, but scoots when you get closer! Point being, it is never going to happen in the future, because it has always been with us all the time!

What the BJP, RSS together with various front organizations have done, in the last couple of decades, is openly weaponized Hindu upper caste hegemony – spreading fear, anger, anxiety and hate – while very meticulously converting a large section of the Hindu population also into a stable vote bank, blurring caste, class and regional distinction in the process. What the non-upper caste Hindus, hopelessly divided among themselves, get out of this process is similar to ‘Sanskritisation’ – whereby from being only once-born (according to Hindu scriptures) they hope to become 1.5 or 1.6-born –by imitating the twice-born savarnas, becoming vegetarian and worshipping the cow! No one knows, when they will wise up to the fact, they are not only giving their loyalty but also paying royalty to those ‘above’ them in the social order!

Sociologically, this process has been aided by dramatic changes in the Indian economy since its liberalization– incidentally initiated by the Congress party in the early nineties[iv] – spurring widespread urbanization, concentration of wealth in a few hands and massive rural migrations to cities.  For many of these geographically uprooted and culturally displaced sections of the population the meta ‘Hindu’ identity projected by the RSS and BJP has given a sense of belonging to a larger community – making them willing to give up more local identities of language and caste.

Further, deflecting attention from harsh living conditions and economic misery they have found – in the Muslims and other minorities, deliberately pushed below them in the social order – an easy target to vent all their frustrations against. This scapegoating of minorities, which one can see in many the countries undergoing similar social transformations, is not going to change very easily, given it has become an integral part of ensuring success in electoral politics – unless of course there is a fightback by other social forces espousing a more potent vote-winning idea.

What are the long-term implications of Modi’svictory?
There are many ominous trends, but the real dangerous one emerging from the 2019 elections, is the way the Indian armed forces themselves have been coopted by the Modi campaign.

Apart from fudging facts about how successful their so called ‘surgical strike’ inside Pakistani territory really was,the Indian military meekly accepted Narendra Modi spreading half-truths or even claiming a personal(though very cloudy) role, in the actual operation.   Most appallingly, the Indian Air Force  hid, till the elections were over,  the fact that during a shootout with Pakistani fighter planes, they had shot down their own helicopter, killing six officers. These martyrs were given a very quiet burial, along with many other politically inconvenient facts.

This mixing of Modi’s needs with the military’s priorities is going to have serious repercussions in the future for both Indian politics as well as society. Though it seems unthinkable right now, if politicians continue to use the army for furthering their own causes it will only degrade the latter’s capabilities in real terms apart from politicizing them in a crude, electoral way. And, if the men in green get a taste of political power it is the country’s democracy that will turn black and blue – exactly like what has happened in neighbouring  Pakistan.

What can citizens do?
Over the next five years, what is clear is that Modi Regime 2.0 is going to face an even more dismal economy than before and this will surely spillover to the streets of India sooner or later. Whether it is unemployment, shrinking business opportunities, rural distress – there is no evidence to show Modi or his team have a clue about how to solve these problems. The global economic situation is also not likely to improve and help the domestic one very much.

This is a period, where more and more ordinary citizens should organize, educate and agitate to ensure a fair share of resources goes to those who need it the most. In particular, apart from organizing around civic and other local issues at the national level, there has to be a widespread movement against the phenomenal income and wealth inequalities in India today.

There will also be greater resistance from  the states to the tendency of Modi and the BJP – seen rightly as mostly a party of the Hindi belt – to monopolize power,  resources, while imposing their narrow cultural hegemony. While the new Modi regime may foolishly seek to repeal Article 35 A and Article 370 to remove Kashmir’s special status under the Indian constitution, it should be prepared for many more Kashmir-like situations brewing in other parts of India.

How long will people of such a vast and diverse land put up with a bunch of cow belt brahmins, banias and thakurs dictating terms, before showing them their middle fingers[v]? Also, if large sections of the BJP are openly rejecting Gandhi and the spirit of the Indian freedom itself by celebrating Godse, what is anyway left of the India that was born on 15 August 1947?

In a sense, we are headed into the turbulent period that followed Mrs. Gandhi’s electoral victory in 1971 and leading up to the Emergency. This time around though, a Modi-run Emergency will be far more serious and drastic,as it will also come with the diversionary tactic of targeting religious minorities and whipping up nationalist hysteria.

That is why the fate of India’s minorities, also Dalits and Adivasi populations, is inescapably bound with that of Indian democracy itself – injustice towards one will become injustice towards all very fast. The sooner political forces opposed to Hindutva recognize and organize around this principle, the more effective they will be in fighting the looming period of dictatorship and oppression ahead.

India has beaten the Emergency once before and will thrash it once again.

Satya Sagar is a journalist and public health worker who can be contacted at sagarnama@gmail.com

[i]Though there are some anecdotal reports of EVMs malfunctioning or not tallying with paper records there is no hard evidence of large-scale manipulation of these devices available yet. More research awaited.
[ii]Lalu Yadav, Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati, Kanimozhi – all anti-BJP politicians have been selectively picked out as being ‘very corrupt’ while there was no corruption involved during Modi’s demonetization madness or the purchase of Rafale fighter aircraft!
[iii]I do believe that stopping ‘corruption’ will only increase violence all around as India is a land run by various warlords, who will take by force if not allowed to gain by subterfuge. Stopping corruption is not a priority at the moment, except for those whose forefathers stole long ago and now claim ‘legal ownership’ over property.
[iv]Did you know Namo’s first break as a chaiwallah was given by none other than MMS?
[v]This can be done in a very polite and culturally sensitive way. Contact me for further details.

Courtesy: Counter Current

The post Phantom of the Vedic Opera Returns appeared first on SabrangIndia.

The abrupt demonetisation of 500 and 1000 rupee notes by the Narendra Modi regime is a drastic move that is staggering in its scale, ambition and repurcussions. The only other figures in modern history one can think of, devious or stupid enough to attempt something similar, are the likes of Marcos, Suharto, Idi Amin and Pol Pot.

Artists protest against the demonetization of Rs 1000 and 500 notes through a street play in Kolkata. (Photo courtesy – PTI)

For all its audacity however, the decision could go down also as the grandest of blunders made by anyone in Indian political history. Poorly planned and implemented it is likely to prove disastrous not only for the country’s economy but – ironically enough,– for the BJP’s own electoral fortunes.

The abolition of the two currency notes – that make up 86% of all cash in circulation in the Indian economy –  has affected almost every family in the second most populous nation on the planet.  The harassment of the common citizen – particularly from the ranks of the urban and rural poor- through denial of access to income, savings and livelihood will not be forgotten anytime soon.

The Modi government’s  supporters have termed demonetisation a ‘surgical strike’ against black money, calling it a ‘bold’ , ‘necessary’ and ‘well intentioned’ step. A more rabid section of his fans see all complaints as coming from those who benefited from black money, mainly the BJP’s political opponents. The Prime Minister himself has called upon the nation to ‘make sacrifices’ and put up with hardship for 50 days in this battle against corruption.

However, growing consensus among economists both within and outside the country is that demonetisation is a foolish measure and will hurt the Indian economy badly – especially farmers, small businesses, labour and anyone part of the country’s informal sector – and operates on a daily basis through cash transaction. The informal sector constitutes over 30 % of the Indian economy in value and 92% in terms of workforce employed[1].

Since the drastic policy was announced on November 8, all these have come to a complete standstill, leaving millions without livelihood or means to buy basic goods. As one respected economist has pointed out demonetisation may have permanently damaged India’s informal sector[2].

A severe deflation is predicted over the next six months to a year or even longer, as spending power disappears or goes down for millions of Indians and businesses shut down. There is also the concern that, with government issued currency losing credibility through demonetisation, more and more people will keep their money in unproductive but safe assets like gold and property.

So, why would the government take such a high risk step ? What was Mr Modi really trying to do when he announced a measure that directly affects almost every single family in the second most populous nation on the planet?  Who are the real beneficiaries of this drastic policy? Will it really stop black money from circulating in the economy and end corruption from the country?

Despite all this propaganda it is quite clear now that demonetisation has nothing really to do with black money, that constitutes a sizeable 20 % of the Indian economy, of which only 6% is hoarded in cash, the rest being stashed away in gold, real estate and foreign accounts. If the government was serious about hurting the beneficiaries of black money they would have started by prosecuting those who keep such ill-gotten wealth in non-cash assets. Also, given the large-scale collusion of the Indian political class and bureaucracy in corruption the Modi regime should have first gone after its own ministers and government officials (particularly from the tax and revenue collection departments) to set a public example.

At its core, demonetisation is essentially an an attempt at economic and social engineering – on behalf of corporate banking and financial elites – the new paymasters Modi genuflects to after having ditched the small and medium mercantile lobbies the BJP represented for long. The Indian middle-classes, both real and aspirational, are rooting for the policy as they see a consolidation of their own power and future benefits in it.

With one stone, the policy’s architects have tried to slaughter many birds: recapitalise public banks burdened with bad loans; lend out new deposits to cronies in the corporate sector; enrich new entrants into the digital banking business, give the government extra funds to spend on its pet projects and steal a march over political rivals.

1.Rebooting troubled Indian banks: The bad loans or Non Performing Assets (NPAs) in the Indian banking sector, stood at nearly 6 lakh crore rupees by end of March 2016[3].  Over 90 per cent of this is on the books of public-sector banks, with the State Bank of India accounting for the highest amount. Even this sum, stunning as it may be, is considered a gross underestimation and if loans that face the risk of being declared NPAs are also taken into account, the overall stressed advances of Indian banks will double[4].  A bulk of the NPAs are in turn due to default on interest payments by the corporate sector, which has been milking the banking system through its political patrons.

The increase in deposits of banks expected due to the crackdown on black money is expected to help banks get into better health, lower interest rates and enable them to resume lending to Indian businesses again. In other words, demonetisation is a way of saving many Indian public sector banks while also providing corporates with fresh loans,  a very dubious strategy given those in power seem to have no real will to recover money from their defaulter cronies.

2.Increasing the government’s cash flow: One of the justifications being given now for demonetisation is that an estimated Rs.16 lakh crores circulating in the Indian economy as cash, mostly in the form of 500 and 1000 rupee notes, will all get accounted for as they will be forced to go through the banking system. Assuming that a significant portion of the cash held in high denomination notes is ‘black money’ – it is argued that a significant percentage of this black money will not come back at all due to fear of penalties and prosecution and becomes useless. This will reduce the overall liability of the Researve Bank of India by anywhere between 2-4 lakh crore rupees, providing a windfall to the state exchequer. This calculation has been challenged by several economists but even if it were right, the moot question is what the government plans to spend all this extra money on, given its extremely poor record of spending on health, education and infrastructure for the welfare of the population? What is the guarantee that it will not all end up in the pockets of ruling party politicians and their businessmen friends?

3.Boosting the digital cash economy: In July this year a new study by Google and Boston Consulting Group[5] predicted an exponential increase in digital payments, estimated to grow by 10 times to touch US$500 billion by 2020 – or around 15% of the Indian GDP by that time. A bulk of these payments, the study said, will be micro-transactions, with over 50% of person-to-merchant business expected to be under 100.

 The biggest barrier to this prediction coming true however is supposed to be the fact that a vast majority of Indians prefer to use cash over digital money. Cash, as a percentage of total consumer payments in India, is around 98%, compared with 55% in the US and 48% in the UK, according to report by Payments Council of India released in 2015[6].

In one sweeping stroke, the Modi regime has changed all that and through demonetisation is about to force millions of Indians into the waiting arms of around a dozen private ‘payment banks’ given licences to operate by the Reserve Bank of India in 2015. Among the big non-banking sector corporate grabbing these licenses are Reliance Industries, Airtel, Aditya Birla group, Vodafone, Paytm and Tech Mahindra. The fact that Paytm[7] saw more than five-fold rise in overall traffic in less than 18 hours of the demonetization is an indication that ‘achche din’ have really arrived for the BJP’s cronies in the new banking sector.

Ironically  (or maybe not so ironically) the total black money stored in digital form in foreign banks and in benami names in domestic banks and in shares, bonds and other financial instruments is much bigger than that in hard cash. In the absence of a honest political ruling class, bureaucracy or police the shift to a digital economy will only make it easier to store black money while making companies in the banking sector rich.

4.Cutting political opponents to size: Apart from all these dubious motives behind demonetisation there seems to be something even more devious at work. There are serious allegations of a scam – that BJP insiders changed their hoards of black money into white in various ways in the run up to the new policy. While these charges need further investigation, the Indian media has already reported a suspicious surge in bank deposits in the months just prior to demonetisaion and even produced evidence of the BJP’s West Bengal unit depositing large sums of cash[8] into its account just hours before the announcement was made. Given the widespread use of black money in cash by all political parties during elections demonetisation is calculated to hit the BJP’s opponents in the upcoming Punjab and Uttar Pradesh elections. Public discontent over the policy could however negate any such gains.

Looking at the demonetisation policy from a more long-term political perspective the portents under the current regime are scary. What Narendra Modi is really proving is that he is capable of playing a very high-risk game in order to boost his own stature, ram through policies that benefit his corporate cronies and care two hoots for the welfare of the Indian masses (despite being a chaiwallah’s son himself!). It is a display of high confidence, even arrogance, on part of the BJP ‘strongman’ that is extraordinary even by his previous record and standards.

The other point to note is that the Indian right wing, represented by the BJP and the Sangh Parivar, is not at all hesitatnt about turning the entire country or even the Indian Constitution upside down in pursuit of whatever objectives they deem worthwhile. In that sense the idea of ‘revolution’ or overthrow of the state and current social order,  rhetorically championed for long by leftists, is being implemented in practice by the right-wing. The Sangh Parivar has become the only effective insurrectionary force in the country today- with truly frightening possibilities in future, including a political emergency to accompany the financial one.

This is not to say at all they will necessarily succeed in their plans. Fortunately for Indian democracy, those espousing fascist control also seem to be cocksure and foolish – as undoubtedly Modi and his men have been with the demonetisation decision –a truly spectacular self-goal on their part.

With public anger against the policy growing steadily this is perhaps the right time for opponents of the Parivar’s various, draconian gameplans to get their act together and mobilise the Indian people. How seriously they carry out this mission will determine whether it is the Parivar or its opponents who finally go out of circulation – like the recently abolished currencies.
 
Satya Sagar is a journalist and public health worker who can be reached sagarnama@gmail.com

This article was first published on Kafila.online

[1] Indian Informal Sector: an Analysis Dr. Muna Kalyani. International Journal of Managerial Studies and Research (IJMSR) Volume 4, Issue 1, January 2016, PP 78-85. https://www.arcjournals.org/pdfs/ijmsr/v4-i1/9.pdf
[2] http://thewire.in/80564/modis-demonetisation-move-may-have-permanently-damaged-indias-informal-sector/
[3]http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/51078318.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
[4] http://www.dnaindia.com/money/report-indian-banks-stressed-loans-pile-set-to-top-rs-13-lakh-crore-2211890
[5] http://www.livemint.com/Industry/M6SPyd4vUcC7QIQRnjBqaO/Digital-payments-in-India-seen-touching-500-billion-by-2020.html
[6] https://www.saddahaq.com/digital-india-epayments-and-online-transactions-upset-the-traditional-paper-payment-apple-cart-incentives-for-epayments-could-be-offered-in-the-budget
[7] http://www.livemint.com/Companies/iHcFkPVVuATAjxCD5zK4QJ/Digital-payment-platforms-record-surge-in-transactions-after.html
[8] http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/bengal-bjp-deposits-money-just-hours-before-currency-ban-announcement-cpm-alleges-tip-off/articleshow/55372157.cms
 

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