sukla sen | SabrangIndia

Post 2019 polls, fight back the dismantling of “India”

Mon, 24 Jun 2019 04:16:50 +0000

One month down, a close look at the recent poll results and lessons that could be learned

The 7-phase 17th LokSabha poll commenced on April 11, 2019 and concluded on May 19, covering 542 of the total 543 constituencies. Polling in the remaining constituency, in Tamil Nadu, stands deferred. The counting commenced on May 23, 2019 and concluded the next day.The broad outlines of the outcomes were, however, available on the first day of the counting itself.The incumbent regime came back to power with a bang.

Never before, in the recent past, has India so keenly awaited the results, because never before, in the recent past,has India stood so sharply divided.

So much so that the Time magazine described Indian Prime Minister NarendraModi as India’s “divider-in-chief” on the cover of its May 20, 2019 issue¹. Modi’s picture was on all international issues of the magazine, except the United States edition. The cover story², written by novelist AatishTaseer, had the headline: “Can the world’s largest democracy endure another five years of a Modi government?” A second one³, however, by Ian Bremmer, treatedModi far more positively, suggesting that Modiwas “India’s best hope” for economic reform.

Much before that – on March 15, 2019 – a long standing parliamentarian from the ruling BharatiyaJanata Party (BJP), SakshiMaharaj – also a saffron-robed Hindu monk – had predicted that after 2019, there would be no election in 2024.⁴Even President Ram NathKovind,in his customary address to the nation on the eve of the 70th Republic Day, had said⁵ that the 17th LokSabha election is not ‘once-in-a-generation’ but ‘once-in-a-century’ moment”.

All in all, the extraordinary salience of this poll, broadly mirroring that of the 1977, was widely acknowledged.⁶

The Poll Outcome
In a nutshell, the ruling BJP, in a “landslide” victory, won 303 seats (out of total 542 seats for which polls were held), up from previous 282, and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance won 353 seats. The Indian National Congress won 52 seats – up from 44, and the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance won 91. Other parties and their alliances won 98 seats.⁷

In as many as 16 states and UTs, the BJP secured more than 50% of vote shares.⁸Nationally, the BJP’s vote share was 37.36% – up from 31.34%, while the Congress secured 19.49% – down from 19.52%.In terms of vote share, the next three largest parties are: AITC (4.07%); BSP (3.63%) and SP (2.55%).However, in terms of number of seats, DMK – a Congress ally, is the third largest party with 23 seats – all from Tamil Nadu.⁹

One of the notable aspects is that the Congress won none of the 25 seats in Rajasthan, won a lone seat (out 0f 29) in Madhya Pradesh and only 2 out of 11 seats in Chhattisgarh¹⁰.Barely six months prior, it had won the state assembly polls in these three states, under the same leadership, displacing the ruling BJP, led by the Modi-Shah duo.¹¹It, however, did fairly well in Punjab – winning 8 out of total 13. In the 2017 assembly polls in the state too, it had scored a convincing victory. Its vote share rose marginally, as compared to the assembly poll – from 38.5% to 40.12%.¹²

It did rather spectacularly well in Kerala – more so, keeping in mind its overall dismal performance – winning 15 out total 20 seats and its alliance partners winning another 4, conceding only 1 to the CPI(M) – the leader of the ruling coalition in the state.

In Tamil Nadu, it won 8 out of total 38, as the second largest partner in the DMK-led alliance.

The CPI(M) is down from 9, last time, to 3 – 2 in Tamil Nadu, as a constituent of the DMK-led alliance, and 1 in Kerala, as the leader of the ruling LDF. It could not secure even the second position in any of the seats in its erstwhile bastions – Tripura (with 2 sets) and West Bengal (with 42 seats).

The AAP is down from 4 (all in Punjab) to 1 (in Punjab).Last time, it had come second in all the 7 seats in Delhi and in 1seat in UP (Varanasi).This time, it conceded the second position to Congress, in 5 out of the 7 seats in Delhi. It did not contest from Varanasi.

The AITC is down from 34 to 22 seats (all in West Bengal), with a small rise in vote share.

The BSP is up from 0 to 10 (all in UP, in alliance with the SP and RLD), with some fall in vote share.

The DMK is up from 0 to 23 (all in Tamil Nadu), with some rise in vote share.^{13, 14}

The Landslide in Historical Perspective
This is by far the best performance by the BJP ever. This time, it has won 303 seats and secured 37.36% vote share as against 282 seats and 31.34% votes, last time, the best till then. Its previous best performance had been in 1998: 182 seats and 25.59% vote share.^{17, 18}

This poll outcome has been dubbed by quite a few media outlets, very much in tandem with their roles all along, as TsuNaMo (= Tsunami + Na(rendra) Mo(di)) or its various variants.¹⁵The label may be pretty well justified in terms of its (devastating) impact on the psyche of too many Indian citizens.¹⁶

So much so that even “sober” analysts have now started terming it as the confirmation of India’s transit, commencing in 2014, from, the now extinct “Congress system” – a term coined by an eminent social scientist, late Rajni Kothari¹⁹to denote the dominance of India’s multi-party democratic polity by the Congress – to a new “BJP system”.²⁰

The Congress System
It won’t be quite out of place to have a relook into what was the “Congress system”.

In 1952, the very first general election, the Congress had won 74.2% of the total seats, as against 3.3% by the second largest party and 45.9% vote share as against 10.6% of vote share. (The second largest parties in terms of seats and vote share were different.)In 1957, 75.1% of seats and 47.8% of votes, whereas the second largest, in terms of seats – 5.5%, and the one in terms of votes – 10.6%.In 1962, Congress won 73.1% seats and 44.7%.of the votes. The second largest in terms of seats – 5.9% and the one in terms of votes – 10.0%.¹⁷In all these three polls the Congress mascot had been Independent India’s first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru.

The “Congress system” did not mean the dominance only of the parliament by the Congress but of the states as well.

Nehru passed away in 1964.

The “Congress system” suffered a very major jolt in 1967, by losing a number of state assembly elections. The INC suffered significant losses in 7 states which included Gujarat, where INC won 11 out of 24 seats while Swatantra Party won 12 seats; Madras, where INC won 3 out of 39 seats and DMK won 25 seats; Orissa, where INC won 6 out of 20 seats and Swatantra Party won 8 seats; Rajasthan, where INC won 10 out of 20 seats and Swatantra Party won 8 seats; West Bengal, where INC won 14 out of 40 seats; Kerala, where INC won only 1 out of 19 seats and Delhi where INC won 1 out of 7 seats while the remaining 6 were won by Bharatiya Jana Sangh. The decline in support for Congress was also reflected by the fact that it lost control of six state governments in the same year.²¹

That, essentially, signalled the end of the “Congress system”.
Nevertheless, even in the 1967 parliamentary poll, Congress had won 54.4% of seats and 40.8% of votes. The closest opponents had 5.9% seats and 10.0% of the votes.In 1971, in the parliamentary poll, the Congress faction led by Mrs Indira Gandhi, however, scored a very convincing victory: 68.0% seats and 43.7% vote share. The nearest opponents had 4.8% seats and 10.4% of the votes. The number of seats won by the Congress, as compared to its vote share, came down because of a higher index of opposition unity.

Regardless, the era of unilateral dominance by the Congress party had ended in 1967 itself. In 1977, post the Emergency, Congress, under Indira Gandhi, suffered an ignominious defeat, with its vote share plunging to 34.7% and seat share to 28.4%. This was the result of across-the-board opposition unity coming on top of widespread popular revulsion against the Emergency. The party that replaced the Congress in the parliament was, for all practical purpose, a coalition of parties, which could not hold together for too long.

The era of coalition was, effectively, inaugurated.
The Congress would, however, reach its peak parliamentary poll performance in 1984: 78.6% of seats and 49.1% of votes. The nearest opponents had 4.3% seats and 7.7% of the votes.

But, that would prove to be just a flash in the pan, which had been triggered by an extraordinary situation marked by the bloody Khalistani movement in Punjab, consequent Hindu exodus, capture of the famed Golden Temple by the armed militants, followed by the “Operation Blue Star” by the Indian Army causing a large number of deaths and severe damage to the temple, the assassination of the Indian Prime Minister by two of her Sikh bodyguards, sparking off a massacre of Sikhs in Delhi and elsewhere.The “national security” card was used by the Congress, led by the just deceased Prime Minister’s only surviving son, to the hilt.

To that extent, the just concluded poll bears an eerie resemblance to the one in 1984.

The fall of Congress, since’84, has been fairly steep.The “Congress system”, as it appears, had been born with Jawaharlal Nehru as the first Prime Minister of India and withered away with his death.

Regardless, this time, the BJP has won 51.93% of seats and secured 37.36% of votes. Congress, the nearest opponent, in terms of both seats and vote share has 21.40% seats and 19.49% votes.¹³

Moreover, except for Kerala, the Congress had, till 1984, fought the general elections,by and large, without any ally. That’s far from the case with the BJP.

Even leaving aside the condition of the states, the present situation can hardly be bracketed with the Congress dominance till 1967, not even during the period from 1971-84, barring 1977-80.

There is, of course, a more salient dividing line separating the two – while the “Congress system”, despite some serious aberrations, operated broadly to strengthen the “Idea of India” that underpinned the Indian Constitution, this time, that very notion is faced with a mortal threat. More on this later.

Two Advance Signals
Even before the actual counting of votes began, two advance signals, as regards the likely outcome, became available. One, explicit, the other, implicit.

The obvious signal was, of course, the results of the various exit polls, released after the conclusion of the final phase of polling on May 19th.

The exit poll projections, however, widely diverged.While the India Today-Axis poll predicted around 352 seats for the BJP-led NDA – with a clear and emphatic majority by a margin of around 80 seats – and around 92 seats for the Congress-led UPA, the NewsX-Netapoll, at the opposite end of the spectrum, predicted 242 for the former and 164 for the latter, and, thereby, a hung parliament with the NDA enjoying a clear advantage.¹³
It is specifically in this context that the second signal, which was more implicit, became significant. Reproduced below is an introductory comment²² to a mail posted by this analyst on May 21, 2019.

“Considering the provisional figure of 67.11% of polling this time, it’s a rise of 0.71% points over the preceding poll in 2014 (66.40%, as reported by the wikipedia).2014 itself had seen a jump of a rather phenomenal 8.50% points from 57.90% in 2009 (as reported by the wikipedia).The outcome was that since 1984, for the first time, a single party did won an absolute majority, even if it had fought the poll in alliance with a few others and its vote share of 31.34% was the lowest ever for a party winning absolute majority.

The fact that the voting percentage has further gone up, even if only marginally, would tend to indicate a wave, given the phenomenal jump in the preceding poll.The only plausible candidates available to cause a wave are Pulwama/Balakot and anti-minority prejudices or anger.The Nyaya (read: NYAY) in any case, meant only for the bottom-most 20% of the populace which is the most difficult to be accessed, is hardly a competitor.The other likely candidate could be strong disaffection with the present dispensation – the hoax of “Acche Din”.But, that would have, normally, brought the polling percentage down, not pushed it up.

By the way, exit polls, almost unfailingly, miss the magnitude of a large swing. But, all these are, admittedly, speculations.One will have to wait for the 23rd, just two days away.”

In the event, the NDA won 353 seats and the UPA 91.¹³ That is pretty close to the projections made by the India Today-Axis poll, placed at one extreme end of the spectrum of exit polls.

The Drivers
In 2014, the BJP, fighting as an opposition party, had polled 31.34% of the votes.It may not be too irrational to assume that, by that time, it had built up a rather stable/core support base of at least around 20% of the voting population – about 2/3rd of its total votes polled.In 2009, it had polled 18.80% votes, in 2004, 22.16% votes and in 1999, 23.75% votes. In 1998, its vote share was 25.59%, in 1996, it was 20.29% and in 1991,it got 20.04% of the votes.^{17, 23}Thus, around 20% of the voters may be taken to be rather steadfastly committed to the ideology of “Hindutva” – an Indian shorthand for Hindu nationalism/supremacism.

The last time, Modiwas able to garner around 10% additional points over and above its (presumed) core support base.The reasons, as it appeared then, were mainly the following:

Rampant corruption indulged in by the outgoing UPA-II and, the preceding, UPA-I. This public perception of the prevalent corruption was triggered by the CAG reports issued around then, and some court cases. It was, further, sharply aggravated by the agitation led by Anna Hazare – an ex-military man, paraded as a Gandhian – collaborating with a Hindu Yoga guru-cum-entrepreneur having a large fan base, Baba Ramdev, and aided by among others, his then lieutenant ArvindKejriwal.
The consequent “policy paralysis” on the part of the government, as trumpeted, especially, by the corporate media.
Modi being able to raise and communicate these issues from his campaign platform, with telling effect, and his promise to end corruption, bring back black money – accompanied with the alluring assurance of depositing Rs 15 lakh in every poor/salaried person’s bank account.²⁴
This was further accentuated by his call of “SabkaSaath, Sabka Vikas!”²⁵ (With All, Development of All!). Also tersely captured in the slogan of “Acche Din!”²⁶ was a promise of better days to come.
All this gained considerable credibility based on the skilfully constructed and forcefully propagated narrative of “Gujarat (the state of which Modihad been the Chief Minister for well over a decade by then) model of development”.²⁷
Last, but not the least, was the resort to (accentuated) communal polarisation, in a calibrated and targeted manner, aided by the Muzaffarnagar riot in western UP.²⁸

While the collapse²⁹ of the “Acche Din” promise should have had effected significant erosion in the floating votes gathered last time, Pulwama-Balakot, or rather the (concocted?) narrative³⁰ built around it, aided by a conniving EC and blared ad nauseam by the obliging, and “patriotic”, media – the electronic even more so – made it a sure fire game changer.The ruling party, in a way, got merged with the (brave) armed forces of the country.Modi claimed, and got, full credit for the (presumed) resounding slap delivered by the Indian forces in the face of Pakistan.He would thus urge the (first-time) voters: “can your first vote be dedicated to the veer jawans (valiant soldiers) who carried out the air strike in Pakistan? Can your first vote be dedicated to the veer shaheed (brave martyrs) of Pulwama (terror attack)?”³¹“Ghar Me GhusKe Marunga“³² (I’d finish you off, by invading your holes!) – the shrill cry emanating from the Indian Prime Minister, was, arguably, the most emblematic campaign line of the Modi-BJP camp.

The main opposition in the field, the Congress, found itself utterly helpless. It could neither challenge the narrative – that might have had proved even more disastrous – nor posit an alternative narrative with matching appeal, more so, given the biased nature of the media.The “NYAY” – in any case, ostensibly directed at the bottom-most 20%, the most difficult to be accessed, was just no match, even if one sets aside the issue of credibility.

Despite the, apparently, spirited fight-back, the inevitable has happened. A wave of nationalist jingoism unfailingly helps a right-wing party, particularly, if in power.Thus,Vajpayee had scored a clear victory in the 1999 poll, on the back of the Kargil War – facilitated by a monumental failure of the military intelligence on the Indian side – despite the far premature and ignominious collapse of the coalition government led by him. He would, however, suffer a defeat, next time (2004), unaided by any such surge, despite successfully running the coalition, this time round.

Moreover, no factor is a stand-alone entity.The surge of jingoism emerged out of the latent, or even overt, feelings of animosity towards the (hated) “other” – the Muslims – persistently cultivated³³ by the regime.The surge only helped to cross the tipping point, to propel the voter to vote for Modi/BJP, despite all his glaring fiascos,particularly on the economic front.

Reproduced below is a rather longish, nevertheless worth citing, extract from a recent write-up³⁴ carried by a South Asian journal.

Five years later, barring qualified progress in some areas – toilets, roads, renewable energy, cooking gas – Modi’s promise of vikas has turned out empty. Even governments we rate below-average have arguably delivered similarly spotty progress, as in the preceding UPA regime. Make in India, Skill India and Digital India mostly remain slogans. Demonetisation showed the gaping idiocy and dangerous autocracy in Modi’s decision-making, which callously overruled the advice from experts that only a miniscule amount of black money was in cash. Far from raising India’s prestige and soft power in the world, the press in Europe and North America mostly brackets him and his movement with dubious figures like Trump, Putin, Ergodan and Bolsonaro. Modi has said the climate is not changing, our tolerance for the weather is. He holds asinine views about ancient Hindu feats in genetic science and cosmetic surgery. Despite a historic windfall from low oil prices, he now presides over a deepening farm crisis, an economic slowdown and the highest unemployment in 45 years. Vikas?

In 2014, Modi ran on a platform of vikas but mostly delivered Hindutva. In 2019, he ran on a platform of Hindutva, with little talk of vikas, smart cities, betibachao, black money, or Skill India. In 2019, Modi wore his religion on his sleeve. He and his party incited fear of the ‘other’ and made dog whistles and thinly veiled threats of violence and genocide. He gave LokSabha tickets to noted communal bigots of the RSS, including one who calls Godse a patriot. So what can we rationally expect from Modi this time? Even less vikas, I think, when the mandate is clearly for Hindutva, paving the way for the far right’s dream of a Hindu Rashtra, a state legally conceived not as secular but a Hindu polity and whose structures and institutions are based on the forms and priorities of Hindu culture and religion.

So how did Modi win this time? A big part of the answer is the powerful opium of Hindu nationalism. The BJP won because a great many Hindus are high on Hindutva. The SanghParivar has learned to exploit the well-known cultural inferiority complex of the Hindu middle class, which grew out of India’s colonial encounter with Europe. Alongside, they stoke fears that a billion-plus Hindus are under siege by Muslims, refugees, leftists, Pakistan and pesky “anti-nationals.” The well-funded propaganda arms of the BJP and SanghParivar spread a lurid and manufactured sense of historical hurt, key to sustaining Hindutva nationalism. Run by an army of paid trolls, they fan both hate and pride by peddling fantasies of past greatness, military might, superpower dreams, surgical strikes and fake news. The ordinary Hindu’s sense of history is now filled with malicious lies and manufactured resentments against pre-colonial Muslim rule and he wants to settle the score by punishing today’s Muslims.

During the voting season, I’d predicted that BJP’s decision to lead with Hindutva and its cynical post-Pulwama airstrikes would be a winning strategy. It more than offset their failures on the economy – a trick that countless demagogues have tried. Stated differently, the BJP’s actual performance on the economy became irrelevant against the joys and psychic highs of Hindu pride and nationalism, which the BJP stoked, playing the people like a fiddle. The BJP turned hate and anger into an animating, intoxicating and rallying force – risking the unleashing of even darker forces that, in time, they may not be able to control. Among other big contributors to the BJP victory were a brazenly partisan media that stumps for Modi and cultivates support for authoritarian rule; high octane propaganda on social media; and a hopelessly divided political opposition, who undercut each other’s votes in India’s first-past-the-post system.

That’s fairly comprehensive.
However, it does appear to severely underrate, though not outright overlook, the salience of the Pulwama/Balakot factor³⁵ in the last poll.In fact, with the Election Commission very much on his side³⁶, Modi further accentuated its effect, making mincemeat of the Model Code of Conduct, via a nationally televised address to announce the successful firing of an anti-satellite (ASAT) missile in the outer space – the first time for India³⁷, when the poll process was already on.(In fact, it looks rather miraculous that for the bulk of post-poll analyses – across the lines – Pulwama-Balakot which were so very glaring, almost just never happened!)

Consequent to the stirred up jingoist surge, Modi could further reinforce the strongman (56” chest) image of himself – built up assiduously over the last five years using the official machinery to the hilt.³⁸

Other than that, another analyst³⁹ puts a spotlight on three (presumably decisive) factors: Money (highly asymmetric access to financial resources largely engineered via a controversial Act, legislated through stealth, for the specific purpose⁴⁰), (Electronic Voting) Machine and Media ( acting, by and large, as a partisan player).⁴¹The point made regarding the EVM is, however, pretty much controversial⁴².

The social media, manipulated by a huge troll army, also, predictably, played some part⁴³.Apart from toilets (under Swacch Bharat) andUjjwala (cooking gas for poor households) – as mentioned in the extract reproduced above, regardless of patchy performance, the PradhanMantriKisanSamman Nidhi⁴⁴ also appears to have played a role. As did the rural housing scheme⁴⁵. But these sundry factors – including 10% reservation⁴⁶ for “economically backward” members of the castes/groups not till then covered by the provisions of “reservation” – in themselves, cannot but be anything more than minor add-ons.

The main and, in fact, the only national opposition – relentlessly campaigning against the ruling Modi/BJP – the Congress party, presented a fairly decent poll manifesto.⁴⁷But, with its limitations of resources, in terms of finance, as compared to the ruling party, organisational structure and, perhaps most importantly, the way it was treated by the mainstream media, it failed to reach out.

Apart from that, its masthead slogan – AbHoga NYAY⁴⁸ (Now Justice Will Be Done) – had, apparently, a basic design flaw. One, the NYAY scheme, meant to give out substantive cash doles to the (economically) bottom-most 20% households held no promise for the rest 80%. Two, it had the issue of credibility⁴⁹ – whether it could be really implemented, given the financial constraints and structural limitations of government machinery. Three, it might have even evoked adverse reactions, in various degrees, from the rest 80% – envy from those just falling beyond the limit and the rest – better off ones, in particular – conceiving it as a waste of their “hard-earned” money. Fourth, the bottom-most 20% is, in any case, are conceivably the most difficult to be accessed.

Its main attack line against the BJP was: ChowkidarChor Hai!⁵⁰ (The Watchman Is A Thief!). It was, primarily, based on the visibly murky Rafale jet deal steered by none other than Modi himself. But, the roles played by the Supreme Court⁵¹, the CAG⁵², the financial watchdog, and, most of all, the media⁵³, turned out to be pretty much unhelpful. Consequently, it also failed to find a resonance.

The failure of the opposition parties to form a united national alliance,a la 1977, to confront the BJP – apparently, quite a non-feasible proposition – eventually mattered rather little.⁵⁴

Just stunned by the official outcome, some of the opponents – both party and non-party, of the regime have claimed that the BJP victory has been engineered by the EVMs being tampered with by the ruling party.⁵⁵This, however, has been rather compellingly negated⁵⁶ by one analyst running a fact-checking website⁵⁷ and enjoying considerable reputation for objectivity despite his known leftist political inclinations⁵⁸.The same issue(s) had been dealt with in even greater details⁵⁹ by an expert, associated with the opposition CPI(M)⁶⁰, drawing similar conclusions:

It is not our argument that Indian EVMs are hack proof. No machine built by anybody, however competent they are, can be made free from hacking by skilled hackers. We have argued that it will require physical access to the machines – whether in the factory or outside – to carry out this hacking.

As we have described in detail while discussing the administrative procedures, the EVMs have to pass the various verification procedures that involve representatives of political parties. These checks require that political parties understand and have an informed participation in these processes. Apart from physically verifying the EVMs, there are also randomisation procedures that involve the presence and participation of political party representatives.Therefore, hacking such a system can be done only with a massive conspiracy, and with either the wilful participation of the opposition parties in this conspiracy, or their complete ignorance of what is going on.

Nevertheless, the final conclusion drawn by this author needs be taken with all seriousness and implemented.

Finally, elections must not only be fair but also seen to be fair. Therefore, our argument is that the ECI must not use the VVPAT as just an ornament forced on it by the Supreme Court, and do a token verification. It should do a real verification by tallying the paper slips of the VVPATs with the electronic count in the EVM. Only then will the ECI be able to put to bed the suspicions people have of their votes being hijacked by a ghost in the machine.

Moreover, the process of filing complaints on observing discrepancy between the button pressed and the paper trail displayed needs be made more complainant-friendly than it is now.There should also be mandatory counting of all paper trails where the winning margin is 1%, or below, of the total votes polled.

Lastly, a look at how the voters have voted.

The votes cast, as is well-known, are anonymous.Even then, surveys by non-government institutions are carried out to explore the profiles of the support base for various contesting parties.At least three noteworthy analyses⁶¹ are available in the public domain. These are not congruent.Yet, the essential point that emerges is that the BJP has, this time, further consolidated Hindu support, across caste divides. But, it, nevertheless, still enjoys more support from the rich and upper castes, even though there has been a sharper rise in case of lower castes, including Dalits, and Adivasis. In stark contrast, little support from the non-Hindus – 10% or thereabout.

All in all, Hindutva in combination with Modi’s carefully constructed image as a strongman riding on the upsurge of jingoism triggered by the narrative built around Pulwama-Balakot, trumped his rather dismal failure on all other fronts and very much neutralised the opposition campaigns.

The roles played by the (supposedly neutral) Election Commission and the mainstream media were, apparently, of huge significance. Also the grossly disproportionate access to financial resources.

Of course, Tamil Nadu and Kerala are the two most glaring exceptions. There are a few others as well.But, the BJP virtually swept the heartland, except in Punjab.

What Now?
As far as the opposition camp is concerned, the first response to the defeat is dismay and disarray.

The main opposition party Congress, with its President, Rahul Gandhi, announcing his decision to quit his post regardless of the urgings to the contrary by its highest decision-making body, Congress Working Committee (CWC), is still in turmoil.⁶²Others also appear to be rather nonplussed. The case of the West Bengal Chief Minister is an illustrative example.⁶³

The Muslims, the bete noire of the BJP (and its ideological anchor organisation, the RSS), are, apparently, dispirited. Some eminent Muslims have, reportedly, written⁶⁴ to the Prime Minister welcoming his address on May 26 to NDA MPs and offered “utmost cooperation” to him in reaching out to the community.Another, known name from the community, has, on the contrary, in a reasoned and spirited appeal⁶⁵, urged the community to make common cause with “liberals, social democrats, socialists, communists, large sections of the underprivileged, the poor, and sections of scholars” in the fight for dignified survival. Obviously, all these are indicative of the ongoing turbulence within.

The BJP – the Modi-Shah duo, in particular, is, obviously, only too elated.Modi is taking this opportunity also to refashion the organisational power structure.⁶⁶What, however, is far more germane in anticipating the developments in the coming days is that the BJP/RSS has a project – to supplant the “secular” and “democratic” Indian state with a “Hindu Rashtra” (Hindu nation state) – the contours of which are, understandably, not etched in stone, but, even then, would mean complete negation of substantive democracy and pluralism. Of still greater salience, the journey towards it has got to be propelled by constant stirring up of hatred and violence against the constructed inimical “others”, in order to mobilise the Hindus as “Hindus”, drowning out all other competing identities.⁶⁷

Taking off from that basic proposition, the new regime is likely to have two major focal points on the “political” front⁶⁸:

Dismantling of all opposition – both party and non-party.Towards that end, dislodging, maybe even dismissal, of, at least a few, opposition-run state governments;ED, IT, and CBI raids on opposition politicians and also, in some cases, buying them out can be expected. All this leads to tightening the screw, so to say, in a myriad ways – including enhanced digital surveillance, also with regard to the civil society organisations and dissenting individuals.
Sharply spiking communal polarisation by way of (phased?) nationwide roll-out of the NRC⁶⁹, also scrapping of Art. 370 (and Art. 35A)⁷⁰ and putting to good use the Mandir-Masjid issue(s)⁷¹, as per the demands of the situation.
Other expected developments are:
(i) Further intensification of non-state physical violence.⁷²

(ii) Mega sale of PSUs.⁷³
(iii) “Economic reforms”.⁷⁴
(iv) Stepped up trashing of environmental norms and safeguards.⁷⁵
(v) Tightening the grip over the education infrastructure and institutions.⁷⁶
(vi) Further defanging of watchdog institutions.⁷⁷
(vii) More repressive laws, if felt necessary.

While the actual (detailed) work plan will evolve and be calibrated, based on the perceived ground situations, and be punctuated with some measures to project a “people-friendly” image⁷⁸ – to confuse and divide the potential opposition – there is little scope that the general direction would be anything significantly different from the one sketched out above.

It would no longer be business as usual, not even by the standards of the last five years.

Conclusion
Modi 2.0 presents us with the real and looming threat of the dismantling of an”India” – embodying the values of “democracy”, “pluralism” and “egalitarianism”, that had been wrought out in the crucible of the epic freedom struggle, and which, finally emerged on the August 15, 1947 – all in pursuance of a project to supplant it with a “Hindu Rashtra” (Hindu nation state). This is sought to be achieved by mobilising the Hindus of India as “Hindus”, drowning out all other identities linked to language, culture, gender, caste, class etc., and constantly stoking hatred and violence against the constructed inimical “others”.Regardless of all the (innumerable) flaws and shortcomings that “India” – real and even notional, – encapsulates, the success of the above project would prove to be an unmitigated disaster for the vast majority of the people inhabiting this land.

What could offer at least some chance to avert such a predicament is a broad front/fronts consisting of political parties, as many as possible – including their associated mass organisations, and non-party civil society organisations – based on the common agenda of saving democracy/democratic rights and unity of the country. This should be backed actively, by right-minded, otherwise diffused, individuals and should be in addition to the ongoing and futurevarious specific issue-based struggles taken up by various constituents in their own ways – unitedly or independently.

Determined and consistent resistance has got to be offered on all available terrains – including parliamentary, legal, media (both traditional and new) and the streets, and in all available political and civil spaces. It is, admittedly, a stupendous task given that

the regime has the levers of the state power under its control – providing it with a disproportionate advantage to set and control the narrative (Pulwama-Balakot being a graphic illustration), and
theregime has found not too inconsiderable success in vitiating the “Hindu” psyche, via persistent and diligent work, by the RSS and its myriad affiliates, over decades and decades.
Moreover, much of the “opposition” may start melting away even before the real fight starts.

However, one has no option but to hope against hope and fight back.

The post Post 2019 polls, fight back the dismantling of “India” appeared first on SabrangIndia.

The “Letter” that Discloses a Plot to Assassinate: Disturbing Implications

Mon, 18 Jun 2018 13:14:40 +0000

The “Letter” or Letters that speak of the plot to assassinate Indian PM Modi deserve careful de-construction

In order to make more complete sense of the issue before us, let us first try to arrange the events in (a rough) chronological order.

I. Here’s a news report carried by the Times of India (TOI), June 6 web edition, which informs us:
“Human rights activist Rona Jacob Wilson was arrested from South Delhi early on Wednesday [i.e. June 6 2018] in connection with the Koregaon violence in Maharashtra.”
(https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/koregaon-violence-activist-rona-jacob-wilson-arrested-in-delhi/articleshow/64474008.cms)
It further adds:
“..Pune police had located Wilson to a flat in Munirka area of south Delhi and sought Delhi Police’s assistance in nabbing him.
A raid was conducted in the early hours of Wednesday and the suspect was taken into custody.
Earlier, the police had conducted a search at Wilson’s house and seized documents and his laptop.”

So, question one, was it the Pune police which actually carried out the arrest (with the assistance of the Delhi police?).
Two, had one such a raid been carried out, earlier? (When?) and also that morning?
In the earlier search, “documents and his laptop” were seized.
There’s no report of any seizure during the search on June 6, in the early hours.
In fact, some “documents and his laptop” had already been seized.

Now, let’s refer to a report carried by the Indian Express web edition dtd. June 7 (before the break of dawn).
It informs us:
“Earlier, the Pune city police had on April 17 conducted searches at the residence of Dhawale, Wilson, Gadling, Elgaar Parishad organizer Harshali Potdar, and also Pune-based Sagar Gorkhe, Deepak Dhengle, Ramesh Gaichor and his wife Jyoti Jagtap, all artists of “cultural group” Kabir Kala Manch (KKM).”
(http://indianexpress.com/article/india/koregaon-bhima-violence-case-pune-police-arrest-top-urban-maoist-operatives-from-delhi-mumbai-nagpur-5206033/)
The report adds:
“Police sources said that following the forensic analysis of electronic and other evidence obtained during the search operations, four teams of Pune city police were dispatched to Mumbai, Delhi and Nagpur on Tuesday.”

So, it was on April 17 that the laptop had been seized.
(There’s no report that any second/third laptop was seized from Rona Wilson’s place subsequently.)
The police, obviously, needs some time to examine the laptop, go through its contents and make sense of what has been found.

Bhima Koregaon Violence
Violence at Bhima Koregaon violence had been first sparked off on January 1 last and further spread statewide on the next day: “Violent protests erupted in Mumbai, Pune, and other cities across Maharashtra on Tuesday (January 2), with protesters damaging buses, blocking roads and railway lines and forcing shops to shut, a day after unrest in Pune district during celebrations (on Jan. 1) to mark the bicentenary of a British-Peshwa war.”
(https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/violence-in-maharashtra-as-dalits-protest-death-of-28-year-old-in-bhima-koregaon-clashes/story-zerVWqrSjLjF2x53oHMVXL.html>.)
So, the first raid and seizure itself was carried out after the lapse of about three and a half months.
And, Rona Wilson would be arrested on June 6, about a month and twenty days after the (first) search and seizure.

II. India Today, on its website, on June 8 (early evening?), had reported:
“India Today has accessed a letter describing a plan to assassinate Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a “Rajiv Gandhi type” incident, which a leading daily said was “gathered from material seized” from five people arrested for alleged Maoist links.”
It does not, repeat not, talk of any police complaint.
(https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/greenyouth/A$20$27Dreyfus$20affair$27$20in$20the$20making$3F$20$27$27Another$20Rajiv$20Gandhi-type$20incident$27$3A$20Maoist$20letter$20exposes$20plan$20to$20kill$20PM$20Modi$27%7Csort:date/greenyouth/vHG54ZnbxGA/jqTSLtM6BAAJ>)

The India Today website has since updated/amended the report.
It, no longer, talks of the India Today accessing the letter (on its own?)
(https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/plan-to-assassinate-narendra-modi-in-rajiv-gandhi-type-incident-intercepted-1255087-2018-06-08>.)
The original version is, however, still available here: https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/newsindia/plan-to-assassinate-narendra-modi-in-rajiv-gandhi-type-incident-intercepted/ar-AAynvcy.
(Another useful reference: https://www.ucnews.in/news/Plan-to-assassinate-Narendra-Modi-in-Rajiv-Gandhi-type-incident-intercepted/797028166218754.html and https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1796151710462876&id=273506732727389)

Later, the same evening, the TOI website informed us:
“The Pune Police have intercepted an internal communication of the Maoists, which talks about the ultras planning to assassinate Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the manner of a ‘Rajiv Gandhi-type incident’.
The letter was allegedly found in the house of one of the five persons arrested for “links” with the banned CPI (Maoist), the Pune Police told the court on Thursday (i.e. June 7) [emphasis added]. [That implies the letter was produced before the court on June 7 itself.]
…
The letter found in Rona Wilson’s house in Delhi [emphasis added] refers to the requirement of Rs 8 crore to procure M-4 rifle and four lakh rounds, and also mentions “another Rajiv Gandhi-type incident”.
(https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/another-rajiv-gandhi-type-incident-maoist-letter-exposes-plan-to-kill-pm-modi/articleshow/64505905.cms>.)

The Hindustan Times (HT) webiste, on the same day, presents an even clearer picture:
“Pune police have allegedly recovered a letter mentioning a plan to assassinate Prime Minister Narendra Modi from a person arrested in connection with Maoist activities recently.
The document, a copy of which is with the Hindustan Times, was submitted in court by the Pune police on Thursday. …
…
Pune joint commissioner of police Ravindra Kadam said several virtual and physical documents were recovered during anti-Maoist raids conducted on April 17. A scanned copy of this particular letter was allegedly found on the laptop of Rona Wilson Jacob [emphasis added], one of the five people arrested on Wednesday in connection with the Bhima-Koregaon violence. The others taken into custody along with him were identified as Surendra Gadling, Sudhir Dhawale, Shoma Sen and Mahesh Raut.
…
Addressing the court on Thursday, public prosecutor Ujjwala Pawar said it was evident from the letter that the Maoists were planning to kill “someone” on the lines of Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination. “The sender of the letter mentions that the plot sounds suicidal, but the party must still deliberate on the proposal,” she added.
(https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/maoists-letter-shows-conspiracy-to-carry-out-rajiv-gandhi-like-assassination-of-pm-modi/story-f8vdgxC5MvORvipwtRMwXM.html)

So, as per the official version, the letter was found in Rona Wilson’s laptop seized from his Delhi residence on April 17.
It’s a scanned copy (not a mail in the mailbox).

The said HT report further informs us:
“Home minister Rajnath Singh on Friday said that the government is serious about the security of the Prime Minister. “We are always serious about the prime minister’s security. The Maoists are fighting a losing battle. [Emphasis added.] They are now active only in 10 districts in the country,” Singh told a press conference in Jammu after a two-day tour of Jammu and Kashmir.”
That was, on June 8 – one day after producing the letter, in the court, which had been seized around seven weeks back. No talk of any enhanced security for the Prime Minister in view of “discovery” of the threat letter. On the contrary it was asserted that the government was always serious, implying that no additional seriousness/measure was called for. Not only that, the “Maoists are fighting a losing battle.” So, no need to worry.
(A facsimile of the “letter” is available on both the HT and TOI reports cited above. Also at https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1004982450563440640/photo/1.
An even better copy, including the bottom edge, is available at<https://thewire.in/politics/modi-assassination-plot-letter-danger-democracy)

III. On June 10th, Sharad Pawar, the NCP supremo, while addressing a rally, in Pune, trashed the “letter” alleging “that the threat letter was being used to win people’s sympathy.”
The media picked this up.
( https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/amid-row-over-pm-assassination-plot-sharad-pawar-says-its-for-sympathy-1865366)

The NDTV report further added:
“Speaking at the NCP function in Pune, Mr Pawar raised doubts on the veracity of the threat letter. “I have spoken to a senior retired police officer who told me that when such letters come they do not go to the media but to security agencies which make sure that adequate security measures are taken [emphasis added],” he said.

IV. In the first instance, on June 8, days before Pawar’s public trashing of the letter, the Union Home Minister, Rajnath Singh had (first) implicitly denied the need for any enhanced security for the Prime Minister, in the wake of the alleged unearthing of the threat “letter”. However, the day after Pawar made key observations on the expected response from a government responding to a genuine “threat letter”, Singh then held a well publicised “review meeting”, (as if in response to Pawar’s argument) on June 11!!

The TOI had reported:
“Union home minister Rajnath Singh reviewed the PM’s security on Monday in the backdrop of a communication between individuals linked to Maoist outfits revealing a plot to assassinate him. Sources told TOI the threat was being taken “very seriously” and the deliberations at the meeting focused on further strengthening the PM’s security apparatus to effectively neutralise all possible threats [emphasis added].”
(https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/rajnath-singh-reviews-pm-security-in-wake-of-assassination-plot/articleshow/64549157.cms)

It further added:
“While the PM’s security is of the highest level, today’s meeting discussed if the standard operating procedures can be further tightened. An overview will be taken by the expert committee in this regard,” an MHA official said.
The meeting on Monday was attended by national security adviser Ajit Doval, home secretary Rajiv Gauba and Intelligence Bureau director Rajiv Jain. “The home minister directed that all necessary measures be taken in consultation with other agencies to suitably strengthen the PM’s security arrangements,” said an MHA release.”

Just three days before, the Home Minister had virtually pooh-poohed any need for any enhanced security.

V. The HT report cited above further informs:
“In another development, sources in the state home department on Friday said Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis received two threat letters allegedly from Maoist groups over the last ten days.
The letters, which reached the chief minister’s office a week ago, have been handed over to the police. “They came after the recent anti-Naxal operations in Gadchiroli, in which 39 Maoists were killed. The letters have been handed over to the police for further investigation,” an official said, adding that both the documents mentioned the Gadchiroli encounters.”

The comment on the claim by the BJP’s most major alliance partner in the state is quite interesting:
“The Shiv Sena on Monday called the assassination plot against Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis “a thrilling horror story” and said such threats have the tendency to surface ahead of elections.”
(https://www.hindustantimes.com/mumbai-news/shiv-sena-ridicules-maoist-plot-against-pm-modi-cm-fadnavis-calls-it-a-thrilling-horror-story/story-EsOi5vfiC0O5R444nBseXI.html)

VI. What is of real salience here is the fact that an alleged threat to the life of the Prime Minister of India is, even after public disclosure of the threat (contrary to usual practice?), is still being handled by the Pune police.

It remains to be handed over to the National Investigation Agency (NIA), which was brought into being, in the wake of the Mumbai terror attack in November 2008, specifically “to deal with terror related crimes across states without special permission from the states” (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Investigation_Agency).
There’s, as yet, not even any suggestion to that effect.

Coming on top of the flip-flop of the Union Home Minister on the need for enhanced security for the Prime Minister in the wake Sharad Pawar’s well-publicised comment, cited above, it raises serious doubts as regards the genuineness of the “letter”.

It raises the very relevant question whether the “letter” is just a dirty trick, only a “plant”, by the concerned police department, aiming to strike at too many birds with a single stone.

Of relevance in this context is the following:
“All this stirs up suspicions about the authenticity of the letter. According to me, the letter is nothing but a publicity stunt by the Police Department,” he (Prakash Ambedkar) said [on June 13?].
He said a threat letter to a prime minister has never been publicised this way in independent India. “If there is a threat to PM, then increase his security from seven to 14 layers,” he said.
(http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/mumbai/threat-to-pm-just-a-stunt-ambedkar/article24157266.ece)

VI. It is in this context, it’s necessary to take a careful look into the alleged “letter”.

1. The “letter” is addressed to one “Comrade Prakash”.
One doesn’t know who this “Comrade Prakash” is.
But that’s quite unexceptional.
One, not too many leaders/activists of the CPI (Maoist), being a banned and underground organisation, are in the public gaze.
Two, more importantly, even a lay person would assume that such letters, communicating a high conspiracy, would refer to only code names, and not the real ones.
That must be the very basic ground rule.

Even then, Prakash Ambedkar was obliged to deny, in response to a specific query, that he’s not the “Prakash” mentioned therein (ref: the Hindu report, op. cit.).
No, Prakash Karat, has not issued any such denial, yet!

2. Surprise of surprise!
The very opening sentence mentions two names: “Arun, Vernon”.
Incidentally, Arun Fereira and Vernon Gonsalves, both from Mumbai, had been arrested, roughly around the same time (may ref. a comment jointly penned by them at (https://www.dailyo.in/politics/bhima-koregaon-probe-death-threats-to-pm-fake-political-narrative-sinister-plots-by-maoists/story/1/24769.html), and jailed in the past, being kept in the Nagpur jail, for being activists of the CPI (Maoist).
The former was, eventually acquitted.
The latter served jail term and got released thereafter.
Both are known and exposed, must be under the police scanner.

Arun is, of course, a common name.
But, Vernon is, definitely, not.
And, when these two names are put together, it becomes highly improbable that “Arun” stands for “Arun Sanyal”, or whatever, and “Vernon” for “Vernon D’Mello”.

So, the use of real names, that too of two already exposed and pretty well known to the police, and public, is definitely a strong clue (as regards the genuineness of the “letter).

Then, the letter talks of one “Bijoy Da”.
Apparently, it’s a code name.
In fact, it is.
But, the code is very well broken. And, it’s pretty much in the public domain.
It refers to one Narayan Sanyal, an ideologue and top rung leader, belonging to the first generation, who had been arrested back in 2005 and would be later released in 2014, because of failing health
(https://www.hindustantimes.com/kolkata/top-maoist-ideologue-narayan-sanyal-passes-away-in-kolkata/story-WDxSG8Ed3hgC6JQl0iUdwJ.html) “(P)assed away in a south Kolkata hospital on April 17, 2017. He was in his early 80s and was suffering from cancer.” (http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/india/maoist/data_sheets/Central_level_leaders_CPI-Maoist.htm)
There’s a litany of praise about the leader who had deceased just the previous day (as per the day of writing that the “letter” indicated at the bottom: (https://thewire.in/politics/modi-assassination-plot-letter-danger-democracy)

Then it refers to “Com. Saibaba”.
Again, a very well-known name. In jail. Suffering from severe health problems and 90% disabilites.
Then it refers to one “Prashant”. It tells us that the “Gadchirili court” has helped contain his rebellion against Saibaba. That raises the possibility that this “Prashant” is one Prashant Rahi. (Ref: “A district court in Gadchiroli Tuesday sentenced wheelchair-bound Delhi University professor G N Saibaba and four others to life imprisonment … The others who were handed life terms are Hem Mishra, Prashant Rahi, Mahesh Tirki and Pandu Narote.” at https://indianexpress.com/article/india/gadchiroli-court-says-du-professor-g-saibaba-guilty-of-having-links-with-maoists-4558336/). But there’s also another Prashant (Bose), again a real name, who’s, reportedly, the no. 2 in the organisation. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prashant_Bose)

Now, a code name is used: “HB”.
It is laid out therein that this “HB” is entrusted with the responsibility to mobilise public opinion and take other necessary measures to facilitate release of the CPI (Maoist) prisoners, including Saibaba.
So, it could very well be just an additional attempt to tarnish those speaking in defence of the due legal rights of these prisoners, labelled as Maoists, rightly or wrongly.
No point, at this time, trying to hazard a guess who this “HB” is.
Maybe it’s just to make the point that the “letter” has (also) used code names, as it is very much expected to.

The letter goes on to cite more names – Com. Ashok B, Amit B, Seema and Sudhir, who were obviously at large, at its real or pretended time of writing. And, then, Com. Siraj, Vishnu and Com. Basanta, Com. Kisan.

3. Then the letter, at the fag end of this same first paragraph brings up, rather abruptly, a very crucial issue: “[our] requirement of [Rs.?] 8Cr for annual supply of M4’s [rifles?] with 400000 rounds [of ammunitions?]”.
Com. Prakash is asked, at the very end of the same para: “Please convey your decision.”
So, Com. Prakash is, apparently, to take a decision on providing Rs. 8 crore and act accordingly.
Quite a big guy!

4. Then follows the next, and last, para.
The crux is: “(A few senior) comrades [one named as Com. Kisan] have proposed concrete steps to end Modi-raj. We are thinking along the lines of another Rajiv Gandhi type incident [emphasis added]. … Targeting his road-shows could be an effective strategy.”
(Incidentally, “Kisan” is one of the aliases used by Prashanta Bose, as per the wiki site cited above, who’s alleged to be following an egoistic agenda and have had revolted against Saibaba.)

5. The letter ends with the writer signing off as: “R”.
And, the date indicated as: “18/04/17”.
(The Wire comment by Prem Shankar Jha, op. cit.)

6. That’s the “letter” what had been tweeted by the ANI, on the intervening night between June 7 and 8 – 12:04 AM, 8 Jun 2018.
This would be picked up by the MSM outlets later in the late evening.

VII. Fools rush in where angels fear to tread.

What the MSM print outlets dared not to do was picked up by a news portal, known for disseminating fake news on behalf and at the behest of the Sangh Brigade.
( https://www.altnews.in/postcard-news-mass-producing-fake-news/ and https://scroll.in/article/873872/arrest-of-postcard-news-co-founder-shines-a-light-on-indias-fake-news-problem)

It presents, on June 7 2018 itself, an entirely different 2-page letter, addressed to “Dear Comrade Rona”, no mistake.
It names names, and lots of them. (And also provides some phone numbers.)
No abbreviations or the likes, except for the one signing the letter, Com. M, on Jan. 2 2018.
Way more direct, explosive and incriminating.
( https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DfFJdUqUEAA0kLj.jpg> and https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DfFJdQAVMAENqih.jpg>.)

What this “letter” lays out is rather succinctly summarised by the news portal as under:

Excerpt 1: Whatever legal and financial aide (sic) that is required for the violence, the Congress is ready to provide through Jignesh Mevani.

Excerpt 2: Dalit sentiments are against Brahmin centred agenda of BJP/RSS, This should be converted into large scale mobilization and CHAOS.

Excerpt 3: Comrade Jignesh and Comrade Umar are young fighters of our revolution and with strong support from Comrade Prakash Ambedkar, we can foresee the outcome of their efforts in consolidating Dalit agitation across India in few years.

Excerpt 4: Last year in July August, higher committee provide two rounds of funds to Comrade Sudhir to consolidate Dalit struggle and agitation. Comrade Shoma and Surendra have authority to provide more funds for future programs.

Excerpt 5: The Bhima Koregaon violence has been very effective. The death of the youth must be exploited to prepare future agitation and propaganda material

Excerpt 6: We must keep up the pressure through simultaneous protest programs across many states, it will undoubtedly help take down Modi government in 2019.

So, the focus here, to a very large extent, now shifts to the main opposition party, the Congress.
(The interpretations/comments, that immediately follow, bring that out with knife-edge sharpness.
The very opening sentence posits: “This shocking evidence shows how Congress used Dalits for their dirty anti National (sic) game to divide India and incite violence every where (sic).”
It alleges: “Terrorists/Maoists hold guns and kill people, where as (sic) Congress is sponsoring and helping the same people buy guns.”
It claims: “Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi … are obligated to come and answer the people of the country as to what was their connection with Maoist and terrorists in Bhima Koregaon violence.”
And, the rant goes on and on.)

Two, the Congress, Jignesh Mevani, Umar Khalid, Prakash Ambedkar, Sudhir Dhawale, Surendra Gadling, Shoma Sen and many more are named as actors in the nefarious conspiracy.
As regards the Congress, no individual is named – it’s the organisation as a whole.

One striking discrepancy is that the “letter” dtd. Jan. 2,2018, at the very beginning, talks of an “upcoming fact finding of 6th december (sic).”
But, what is way more striking is that this version doesn’t talk of the alleged plot to kill the Prime Minister!

As it appears, this is the “letter” which had been used, earlier that day, by the Times Now TV channel, reportedly, the most popular of its kind.
And, with the very same thrust.
( https://twitter.com/hashtag/MaoistLetterNamesCong?src=hash)

Just one stone, in this case the purported “letter”, is aimed at killing, or at least seriously maiming, too many birds.

That’s truly remarkable.

VIII. As usual, the media trial is conducted, based on selective “leaks” while the accused are, reportedly, denied access to the documents based on which the complaints have been filed.
“These so-called letters, which have been refused to the defence lawyers of those arrested, are being freely “leaked” and being read out on live television. The sole purpose seems to be to whip up a false narrative, favourable to the current regime. Sidetracking the demands of the Dalit movements to punish the Hindutva leaders and the organisations responsible for the attacks of January 1, 2018 on the congregation at Bhima Koregaon can be another probable purpose.”
(Ref.: The ‘daily O’ comment, op. cit.)

By the time the court trial is over and the court delivers its verdict, it’d be politically rendered rather pointless, because of the raucous media trials already carried out.

IX. In this context, one has also to keep in mind the established track record of the current regime.
Two instances are very instructive.

AA. On Dec. 10 2017, at the very closing phase of the last Gujarat assembly poll campaign, in a public rally, the Indian Prime Minister himself made the sensational charge of a Pak conspiracy to install Ahmed Patel, a Congress leader from South Gujarat, as the Chief Minister of Gujarat in collaboration with his predecessor, Manmohan Singh, the previous Vice President of the country, Hamid Ansari and a few others. (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/why-does-pakistan-army-ex-dg-want-ahmed-patel-as-gujarat-cm-narendra-modi/articleshow/62008106.cms)

Just two days back, the media had gone agog with a report that a mystery poster “has emerged in Surat just couple of days before the first phase of Gujarat elections in support of Congress. It urges Muslims to unite and give vote to the Congress party, so that senior leader Ahmed Patel can become the ‘Wazir-e-Alam’ of Gujarat. So essentially, the poster claims that Ahmed Patel can be the Chief Minister of the state.” (http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-poster-in-surat-claims-ahmed-patel-to-be-made-wazir-e-alam-of-gujarat-cong-leader-calls-it-fake-2565762)
The report further added:
As soon as the news broke, Ahmed Patel issued a clarification on Twitter. He said that it’s a fake poster and he doesn’t have any aspiration of becoming the Chief Minister of Gujarat. He also blamed BJP for trying to mislead people. He tweeted, “Putting up fake posters and orchestrating a rumour campaign shows the utter desperation of the BJP. Fearing defeat, do they have to rely on such dirty tricks? I have never ever been a candidate for CM and will never, ever be.”

This, evidently, lent a ring of credibility to the charge that would be hurled by the Prime Minister, whose credibility level is otherwise not too high, two days thereafter.

The charge would be strongly refuted by those adversely affected.
The government could come up with no proof to substantiate the charge.
Faced with the determined Congress opposition, the Finance Minister and the leader of the Rajya Sabha, Arun Jaitley, on behalf of the government, retracted the charge on the floor of the parliament: “PM in his speeches didn’t question, nor meant to question the commitment to this nation of either former PM Manmohan Singh or Former VP Hamid Ansari, any such perception is erroneous, we hold these leaders in high esteem, as well as their commitment to India,” said senior BJP leader and Union minister Arun Jaitley today in the Rajya Sabha.
(https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/pm-modi-didnt-mean-to-question-manmohan-singhs-commitment-to-india-says-njps-arun-jaitley-in-rs/articleshow/62266068.cms. Also, for two juxtaposed short video clips of the PM’s speech and the FM’s retraction: https://twitter.com/officeofrg/status/946038581306441728?lang=en)
But that had come only on December 27.
By that time the Gujarat poll had already been well over, voters voting with the conspiracy charge on their mind, results declared.
So, the purpose very well served.

BB. The other (older) incident relates to India’s claim of “surgical strikes” inside Pakistan held territory across the Line-of-Control (LoC)

On September 29, 2016, Lt. General Ranbir Singh, Director General Military Operations (DGMO), Indian Army, made an announcement on behalf of the Indian Army (and the Union Government) claiming “surgical strikes” across the LoC, hitting the “launchpads” of the “terrorists”.
(https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-carried-out-surgical-strike-across-loc-inflicted-damage-on-terrorists-army/story-s0mbwkNxTGpfowxMK9lxLI.html and https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/30/world/asia/kashmir-india-pakistan.html)
This claim of “surgical strikes” came following a devastating attack by “fidayeen militants” from across the border on an Indian Army base in Uri on the previous Septmber 18, killing 18 Army jawans ( http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/18-jawans-killed-in-pre-dawn-strike-at-Uri/article14988716.ece). “It is the deadliest attack on security forces in Kashmir in two decades.”
(https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-37399969.)

So, the preceding Uri suicide attack, which seriously threatened to make a very big dent in the carefully constructed 56″ image of Modi, the Prime Minister, was the driver for the claimed “surgical strikes”.

Quite surprisingly, Pakistan instead of responding in a belligerent manner, as it routinely does in case of alleged ceasefire violations by India, causing grievous harm to lives and properties on this side of the LoC, just dismissed the claim offhand, albeit with a stern warning, from an anonymous “senior Pakistani security official”, “that Pakistan could use tactical nuclear weapons in self-defense if India initiates a war” and a “surgical strike” would be considered just that. (Ref: The NYT report, op. cit.)
An official spokesperson from Pakistan claimed:
“There had been cross border fire initiated and conducted by India which is [an] existential phenomenon,” said an Inter-Services Public Relations statement released shortly after the Indian director-general of military operations held a press conference making claims about surgical strikes.
“The notion of surgical strike linked to alleged terrorists’ bases is an illusion being deliberately generated by India to create false effects,” the Pakistani military said in a statement.
“This quest by Indian establishment to create media hype by rebranding cross border fire as surgical strike is fabrication of truth.”
(https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/09/pakistan-denies-india-carried-surgical-strikes-160929165646369.html)

Soon thereafter, “Pakistani military took local and foreign journalists on a rare visit to forward locations along the Line of Control to debunk the myth of Indian surgical strikes.”
(https://tribune.com.pk/story/1192133/surgical-strikes-journalists-flown-loc-debunk-indian-myth/)
The report, dtd. October 2, further claimed:
“While India is reluctant to share details or evidence of its trumpeted strikes, Pakistan Army took the journalists to some of the sectors where the Indian military claimed special forces had decimated perceived ‘launch pads of terrorists’. “No such incident took place nor will we allow any such incident to happen in future,” Lt Gen Asim Saleem Bajwa, the director general of the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), told the visiting journalists. “If the adversary attempted so, it will be responded with an ever stronger force,” he added.
The journalists were taken to mainly two spots of Boxor Formation and Hotspring Formation out of the 190-kilometre stretch of the LoC, where India claimed it[s] forces had carried out the so-called surgical strikes. At both locations, which are about 50 kilometres apart, no signs of destruction or casualties were found except the two soldiers, who had been killed – one each at the two formations – due to unprovoked firing by Indian forces. Besides, nine soldiers who have since recovered from injuries and returned to their respective duties.
…
… The journalists represented international media outlets, including CNN, BBC, VOA, Reuters, AP, AFP, News Week and BBC Urdu Service [emphasis added].
The NYT, apparently, in the immediate wake of this above-referred conducted trip, reported:
“Schools have remained open. Grocery stores were serving customers, and buses moved slowly on patchy, winding roads along the hilly terrain. As the afternoon sun sank behind the hills, several women could be seen working in the fields, cutting grass and herding cattle.
( https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/02/world/asia/kashmir-pakistan-india.html)

And, that was not the only snag.

During the question-answer session at the end of the ‘Daily Press Briefing by the Office of the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General’, on Sept. 30 2016, the Spokesman, in response to questions as regards the veracity of the Indian claim of “surgical strikes”, informed:
“What I’m saying is that UNMOGIP [United Nations Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan] has not directly observed any of the… any firing. They’re obviously aware of the reports of these presumed violations, and they’re talking to the relevant… to the concerned authorities.>>
(https://www.un.org/press/en/2016/db160930.doc.htm)
India, of course, would duly respond in a belligerent manner:
“(India’s Permanent Representative to the UN Syed ) Akbaruddin said the “facts on the ground do not change whether somebody acknowledges or not. Facts are facts, we presented the facts and that’s where we stand.”
( https://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/india-snubs-un-for-saying-didnt-observe-loc-firing-3060608/)
But, that doesn’t change the UN Spokesperson’s testimony either.

Indian Home Minister, Rajnath Singh, during the same time, at a press meet on October 2 (2016):
“Responding to a query [obviously arising out of emphatic Pakistani denial and other contrary testimonies] on whether India would release the video of army’s operation as Pakistan has questioned the Indian claims, Rajnath Singh told reporters to ‘just wait and watch’.”
It’s noteworthy that till today any such video footage remains to be released despite the Home Minister’s enigmatic response.
The release of such footages, by both the sides, is though nothing too uncommon.
(https://indianexpress.com/article/india/strong-retaliation-to-ceasefire-violations-bsf-destroys-pakistan-firing-positions-fuel-dump-5034966/, https://scroll.in/latest/839632/pakistan-army-releases-video-claiming-destruction-of-indian-posts-along-loc).

As the armed forces, in India, as also elsewhere, are considered a holy cow, never mind numerous scandals doing rounds – extending all the way from the ones relating to mega defence deals involving top rung officers to sundry corruption cases, e.g. related to army canteens, and periodic stories of “moral turpitude”, the claim, not too compelling on the face of it, having been lodged via an Army spokesman could easily evade tough questioning from within the country.
Even a hint resembling that was promptly labelled as antinational:
(Question:) Do you think by questioning the Indian Army, these politicians are taking an anti-national stance?
(Answer by a former Army Chief, Shankar Roy Chowdhury): Of course. I am also saying it is treachery.
(http://www.rediff.com/news/interview/those-questioning-surgical-strikes-are-treacherous/20161004.htm)

That’s quite instructive on how even a fake story can be (or at least attempted to be) placed beyond the pale of any rational, and democratic, scrutiny by putting to use specific organ(s) of the state.

X. Now, coming back to the original issue, the charge of a conspiracy to assassinate an incumbent Prime Minister of the country is a too serious one.

The basis of the charge is a “seized letter” from the laptop of one of the apprehended, allegedly connected with an entirely different sort of crime – Bhima-Koregaon violence.
And, then, there are two entirely different letters.
One really doesn’t know for certain, as yet, which one is the “official” one.
Or both?
Both, incidentally, appear to be too good, from the point of view of the incumbent regime, to be true.

The second one, even more so. Even though it doesn’t talk of the plot to kill the Prime Minister.
Apparently, this was the first version leaked, and would subsequently be replaced by the one which discloses the assassination plot (tweeted by the ANI), but doesn’t implicate the Congress, for whatever reasons.

And, most interestingly, such a serious charge is being, till now, handled by the local police – Pune police, in the instant case, and not the NIA, the specialised agency brought into being specifically for handling such cases.

Also significant is the fact that the show of reviewing the PM’s security status was staged only in response to Sharad Pawar raising that from a public platform.

Lastly, the track record of this regime.
Particularly the, already admitted, fake charge of treason hurled by the incumbent Prime Minister against his predecessor and the previous Vice President of the country just to garner some extra votes in a mid-sized state poll.

That should offer us a fair idea of what this regime is capable of doing when faced with the prospect of a tough general election.

So, it’s time to sit up.
Otherwise, it’d be too late.

(Note by the author, an activist who compiled this analysis:
The issue appears to be serious. On the face of it, an egregious case of gross misuse of state organs to effect a nefarious partisan project, having serious implications for the fate of “democracy” in the country.)

The post The “Letter” that Discloses a Plot to Assassinate: Disturbing Implications appeared first on SabrangIndia.