Covid numbers rise again: Don't panic, wear your masks!

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India reported 2,380 Covid-19 cases and 56 deaths in the 24 hours till Thursday morning. According to a report in the Indian Express, India’s effective reproduction number (R-value) for Covid-19 “has increased to over 1 for the first time since mid-January”. R-value is an indicator of how quickly the disease is spreading, and “was 1.07 for April 12-18,” according to Sitabhra Sinha, a researcher from Chennai’s Institute of Mathematical Sciences who has been tracking the country’s R-value since the beginning of the pandemic and was quoted in the story. “It was 0.93 the previous week,” stated the news report.

The national capital Delhi has recorded around 1,009 cases in the last 24 hours, and on Wednesday the Delhi Disaster Management Authority made wearing masks mandatory with a Rs 500 fine for violating the rule. Before that Uttar Pradesh government had made wearing masks mandatory in Lucknow, Gautam Buddh Nagar, Ghaziabad, Hapur, Meerut, Bulandshahr, and Baghpat. By Thursday, the Punjab government also made face masks mandatory in crowded places. The Punjab government order stated, “Wearing of masks should be ensured in closed environments like public transport (bus, train, taxi and aircraft), cinema halls, shopping malls and departmental stores, and classrooms, offices and indoor gatherings.” Haryana, Chandigarh are also likely to make masks mandatory again.

According to the IE report even though Covid cases are rising in Delhi, its vaccination coverage remains low at “around 22,500 on an average over the last seven days”. The vaccination numbers in Delhi reportedly fell “went down in mid-February and early March because Delhi reached a saturation point in most categories. Over 90% of the adult population in the capital have been fully-vaccinated”. However after this, the number rose as the vaccinations for children were started.

Looking at the rise in Covid cases in states like Delhi, other states such as Odisha have also asked officials to monitor the situation, and “keep a contingency plan ready to deal with any possible exigency.” According to IE, Public Health Director Dr Niranjan Mishra, asserted that the situation in Odisha is under control and “there is nothing to worry about.”

Reinfections on the rise?

The Pune-based Indian Council of Medical Research-National Institute of Virology (ICMR-NIV) has reported “three episodes of Covid-19 infection in a healthcare professional.” A report published in the Journal of Infection on Tuesday stated that the 38-year-old healthcare professional from New Delhi “had primary SARS-CoV2 infection, breakthrough infection with Delta and reinfection with Omicron over a 16-month period.” The ET too reported that “the rise in cases in Delhi and Haryana has begun to sound alarm bells once again.” Unlike the other major cities such as Mumbai, Bengaluru, Chennai or Pune where the number of daily new cases dropped to the lower double-digits, Delhi has continued to report a significantly higher number of cases, over 100 per day on an average, stated the news report.

According to a report in The Economic Times Rajeev Jayadevan, co-chairman of Indian Medical Association’s (IMA) National Covid Task Force, said “it is possible to get reinfected in less than three months but that’s not an indication that vaccines don’t work.” The report also quoted epidemiologist Chandrakant Lahariya, who said, “A previous infection does not alter the risk of future infection. In the Delta wave 70% got infected and then in Omicron again 50 to 60% got infected. Whether past infection or not, every second Indian got an infection in the recent wave.”