Amidst a majority of surveys predicting landslide victory for Bharatiya Janata Party in the now concluded Lok Sabha election of 2024, and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) being able to comfortably form the government at the centre, DB Live, a digital channel of the Deshbandhu newspaper, had confidently released their set of prediction which does not paint such a happy picture for the BJP and the NDA. As per DB Live predictions, Congress led- INDIA will be the ones surpassing the majority mark of attaining 272 seats at the centre, while the NDA will be the one falling short of achieving the same.
According to the Deshbandhu Exit Poll, conducted in association with Electline of India agency, the NDA is forecasted to secure a total of 207-241 seats, whereas the INDIA bloc might win between 255-290 seats.
State-wise predictions of key states:
Uttar Pradesh: As per the findings of the poll, in the state of Uttar Pradesh, a close contest will take place between the NDA, which will be potentially securing seats between 46 to 48, and the INDIA bloc, comprising the Samajwadi Party and Congress projected to be winning 32-34 seats.
Maharashtra: In the state of Maharashtra, the exit poll forecasts 28-30 seats for the MVA (INDIA) and 18-20 seats for the Mahayuti (NDA). For Karnataka, the poll showed a surprising advantage for the Congress, predicting 18-20 seats, while the BJP and JD(S) alliance is expected to secure 8-10 seats.
Another detailed analysis of seat predictions of Maharashtra can be viewed here.
Bihar: In Bihar, the INDIA bloc is predicted to win 24-26 seats, compared to 14-16 seats for the NDA. In Madhya Pradesh, DB Live projects 24-26 seats for the BJP, with the Congress winning a mere 3-5 seats.
West Bengal: The exit poll also predicted a sweep for Mamata Banerjee-led TMC in West Bengal, with the party winning 26-28 seats, while the BJP is expected to get 11-13 seats.
Rajasthan: In the state of Rajasthan, the poll showed the BJP winning 17-19 seats, and the INDIA bloc securing 6-8 seats.
Tamil Nadu: The exit poll numbers also showed that in Tamil Nadu, the INDI alliance is likely to win 37 to 39 seats and NDA to win only 1.
Telangana: For the state of Telangana, the poll number showed 10-20 seats being won by Congress, 0-2 by BRS and 3-5 by BJP.
Punjab: As per the predictions, none of the 17 seats of Punjab will be won by the BJP, with 6-8 being projected to be won by the AAP and 5-7 by the Congress Party.
Karnataka: In the south state of Karnataka, where many have been predicting a landslide win for the BJP, DB Live has predicted a mere 8-10 seats falling in its bag, and the INDIA bloc winning 18-20 seats
It is essential to note that the exit poll shows a stupendous win for BJP led NDA in the states of Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat.
The complete video of the poll can be viewed here:
The poll results of DB Live were also shared by Congress leader Luv Dutta on ‘X’ (formerly Twitter) while asserting that the predictions of DB Live will be the actual number of seats that the INDIA bloc will be securing.
These are the exact numbers that you all will see on 4th June.
This #ExitPoll will come out to be true.#IndiaAlliance will form the Govt on the 4th of June. pic.twitter.com/SK7RpUi1Nu— Luv Datta #INC (@LuvDatta_INC) June 1, 2024
Notably, the Congress party had, before the exit polls had even been released, refuse to take part in any such discussion. Many Congress leaders, including Jairam Ramesh, DK Shivakumar, have also issued statements dismissing the predictions of the mainstream poll surveys.
During the Karnataka Legislative Assembly elections, the exit polls gave Congress 80–90 seats, but we won 135 seats.
This time, we’re confident of winning 2/3 of the total Lok Sabha seats in the state.
The people of India want change.
: Shri @DKShivakumar, Karnataka Deputy… pic.twitter.com/kIcABfIpco
— Congress (@INCIndia) June 2, 2024
Moosewala Supremacy 🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/lF68eJVOL9
— Nimo Tai (@Cryptic_Miind) June 2, 2024
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Why Indian exit polls are often biased and favour the ruling party
Hasty exit poll conducted during the seventh phase of voting in Bengal
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