Election Watch Chhattisgarh: No winners or losers in this non-starter election

No serious opposition is being seen in the Assembly elections in Chhattisgarh which will be held in two phases.

 
Raipur: Delhi’s CM often says that everybody in politics is complicit. In the impending Assembly Elections in Chhattisgarh that are to be held on Nov 12 and Nov 20, it seems that every party’s philosophy is that ‘I scratch your back and you scratch mine.’ The upcoming elections and the Lok Sabha Elections in 2019 will have not just have a huge impact on the state but also the nation’s politics. But seeing how the opposition is behaving in this election, it doesn’t seem that they care about it. It seems as though all of them are fine with sharing the spoils together.
 
Elections in two phases
The dates for Chhattisgarh assembly elections were announced a few days ago. They will happen in two phases. The first phase will take place on Nov 12 in Naxalism affected Bastar, Kanker, Kondagaon, Narayanpur, Dantewada, Bijapur, Sukma and Rajnandgaon (CM Raman Singh’s home district) for 18 assembly seats. The second phase on Nov 20 will cover the remaining 72 seats. The joint counting of votes from both phases will take place on Dec 11 and 46 seats are needed to prove majority.
 
A cursory glance at the last 20 years
This election will be special for everyone including BJP, Congress, the third front (Jogi Congress, BSP and CPI Alliance,) AAP and others and reason will be clear after observing the last 20 years.
 
In the 1998 assembly elections in an undivided Madhya Pradesh, 120 out of 320 seats had gone to BJP and Congress had won with 164 seats. The CM that time was Digvijay Singh. In 2000, when Chhattisgarh emerged as a new state after the division of MP, Congress had made the first government there with Ajit Jogi as the chief of the party. The first election of the new state was held in 2003 and ever since BJP has won all three. BJP has been the state power for the last 15 years.
 
2003
BJP- 50 
Congress- 37 
BSP – 02 
NCP- 01
 
2008
BJP- 50
Congress-38
BSP- 02
 
2013
BJP- 49
Congress- 39
BSP- 01
Others- 01
 
The oldest political party in the country seems to be in a conundrum in Chhattisgarh because of their tardy attitude of ‘you should win but we shouldn’t lose.’ It should be noted that the reason behind their weakened leadership can be traced back to the Ziram Valley incident during the 2013 assembly elections in the state. On 25 May, 2013, Naxalites attacked members of the Congress party in Ziram Valley. In the attack, Chairman of the state Congress committee Nandkumar Patel, veteran leaders like Vidhyacharan Shukla, Mahendra Karma and more 27 people were killed.
 
It is important to note the results of this attack on the election by looking at how Bastar voted. It has 12 assembly seats.
 
Undivided Bastar 1998
BJP- 01 Congress – 11
 
Bastar 2003
BJP- 09 Congress 03
 
Bastar 2008
BJP – 11 Congress- 01

Bastar 2013
BJP- 04 Congress- 08
 
Ajit Jogi accused of colluding with Raman Singh
 
Ajit Jogi has often been accused of colluding with Raman Singh and harming Congress in the state. There were accusations against him even in the Antagarh Tape issue. In 2014, Congress fielded candidate Manturam Singh from the Antagarh seat. Without informing anyone, he suddenly withdrew his nomination at the end moment. After this, there were accusations of horse trading and an audio tape was also made public. In the tape, former CM Ajit Jogi, his son Amit Jogi, CM Raman Singh, his son-in-law Punit Gupta were allegedly heard. After these revelations, there was a political maelstrom which led to Ajit Jogi quitting Congress and launching his own new party Chhattisgarh Janta Congress.
 
Although nothing came out of the investigation on the tapes, members of Congress like PL Punia and Chavindra Karma (son of Mahendra Karma who died in the Ziram Valley attack and was also considered as a CM candidate) have accused Jogi of planning the Ziram Valley attack. After losing two previous elections, Congress won 8 out of 12 seats in Bastar after the attack. Many said this was because of the sympathy vote. Nobody knows if this was a trick or a failure on the part of the masterminds behind the attack. All these words still remain mere accusations as nothing has been proven yet. In the state politics, there are only accusers and no one is guilty. Incidentally, nothing was proven in Godhra either.
 
Arbitrary seat divisions
BJP has announced its first list with 77 candidates. BSP, Jogi Congress and CPI have announced candidates through six lists and more will be announced soon. AAP has also announced about 80 candidates in its list pending a reshuffle.
 
Potential candidates who have been announced are listed below:
 
Odd equations to provide tickets
A light investigation of these candidates shows a very odd equation among the Chhattisgarh politicians. CM Raman Singh is fighting the election from the Rajnandgaon seat. After a rule of 15 years, Raman Singh would have had a good competition if Ajit Jogi had contested him. The Janta Congress list name Jogi’s nomination from the same seat. But now, Deepak Yadav will contest for the seat. He is a councillor. There is news that Jogi will not fight from any seat this election and will only play the role of a star propagator. From Congress, Karuna Shukla has risen against Raman Singh. It seems there is only one reason behind choosing Shukla and that is because she’s related to former PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Standing against the CM needs more than just far off relations as qualifications. Through the BJP ticket, Shukla has been an MP from the Korba and MLA from Baloda Bazaar seats. After being with BJP for 31 years, she joined Congress in 2014. Congress gave her the ticket to fight BJP from the Bilaspur seat but she lost.
 
Bilaspur is an important seat in Chhattisgarh and BJP minister Amar Agarwal has had the seat for 18 years. He is an accused in a number of corruption cases and everybody besides BJP workers pray for him to lose.  Instead of fielding the candidate from Congress who could’ve challenged him, now there is news that the party has chosen Kota assembly candidate Shailesh Pandey who has no stronghold in Bilaspur. Congress hasn’t announced its final list yet but this is not the first election where Congress and BJP are being been seen helping each other.
 
In the last 15 years, BJP has been embroiled in many cases of corruption, scams, corporate loot, encouraging violence and have had serious allegations levelled against them in the state. It shouldn’t be difficult for the opposition to corner them in this election. After facing a huge defeat in the country, Congress should be more alert and aggressive but it is settling for any scraps. What is the reason behind this weakness?
 

The delicate position of the present government
There is a sharp decline in the popularity graph of BJP in Chhattisgarh. CM Raman Singh tries to remain popular by giving things like rice, cycles, laptops and most recently mobile phones to the masses. When govt schemes become abundant, popularity sees a decline. Indian govt announces many awards for the state’s farmers and agriculture whereas debt-ridden farmers are committing suicides in unimaginable numbers. The govt says that the income of the masses is increasing but fails to notice how expensive everything has become. The poor are still where they were. The people of a state known for its wealth and natural resources are left begging for survival. The govt uses the media and makes such people say on camera that their income has increased.
 
Look at the state of Chandramani Kaushik from Kanhapuri village in Kankor district. She praised the govt and the news program Masterstroke blew the fake propaganda to smithereens. It was seen by everyone but the opposition. To make a Digital India, 50 lakh 4G mobiles were given to villages in Chhattisgarh. Shouldn’t a Digital India have good roads, pure drinking water, good public health services and systems, good schools and employment opportunities? Can the problems of the state go away by giving mobile phones and mobile towers? Why doesn’t the opposition take up this cause? Why is it silent?
 
Besides the Jogi-BSP alliance, AAP is fighting 90 seats in this election. Fed up with bad governance and corruption, Chhattisgarh’s masses could’ve been roped in by AAP if they had chosen limited but good candidates.
 
“It’s time for change” is Congress party’s slogan for the upcoming Chhattisgarh elections. There can be a change only when the public votes anybody but BJP. The fight this time is not between the candidates and the parties but between the people and the government. Everybody is screaming about each other’s exploits and who was embroiled in which scam. Not even the lie of doing something for the masses can be heard right now. Exit polls will make their assumptions but it will be difficult to conclude who will win this year.
 
The election is an important and necessary function of democracy. Political parties and candidates are expected to take this process seriously. In Chhattisgarh this time around, nobody seems to be taking it seriously which will mostly result in a non-starter election.