The mammoth eight phase assembly election has finally concluded in West Bengal and now it’s time for exit polls. Almost all polls predict that the power dynamic is unlikely to change in Assam and Kerala, though some say it could be a photo-finish in West Bengal. Let’s take a closer look at the various exit polls:
Assam:
There are a total of 126 seats in the Assam Assembly and the majority mark is 64. According to the exit poll by ABP-C Voter, the grand alliance led by the Congress could get between 53-66 seats, while the NDA will win anywhere between 58-71 seats. Others might end up with up to five seats at best. Meanwhile, the P-MARQ survey gives the Congress alliance between 56-64 seats, and the NDA 62-70, with up to four seats for others. Both these exit polls show the BJP led alliance holding on to power by a narrow margin.
But as per India Today-Axis My India poll, the margin of victory could be much greater for the BJP led alliance which could get as many as 75-85 seats, leaving the Congress led alliance with just 40-50 seats, while others get one to four seats. The Republic TV-CNX poll also predicts a decisive win for the NDA giving it as many as 74-84 seats with just 40-50 seats going to the Congress led alliance, as others get one to three seats.
Kerala:
In Kerala, all polls predict a win for Pinarayi Vijayan. The Kerala assembly has 140 seats and the majority mark is 72. As per the India Today-Axis My India exit poll, the LDF is all set to win 104-120 seats, with 20-36 seats going to the UDF. The NDA has been summarily trounced and is unlikely to get more than two seats at best. Republic-CNX also gives the LDF between 72-80 seats, with UDF getting between 58-64 seats. It predicts a more optimistic 1-5 seats for the NDA.
Puducherry:
The Union Territory of Puducherry has 30 seats with the majority mark as 16. Here, the Republic-CNX poll gives the BJP led NDA between 16-20 seats, while the Congress led SDA is projected to win 11-13 seats. Meanwhile, the ABP-C Voter poll gives the NDA 19-23 seats and the SDA around 6-10 seats leaving 1-2 seats for others. A change of ruling dispensation is thus expected here.
Tamil Nadu:
The 234 member Tamil Nadu Assembly has a majority mark at 118. According to the P-MARQ exit poll, the AIADMK alliance which is part of the wider NDA will win around 40-65, while the DMK-Congress-Left alliance gets 165-190 seats. This leaves the AMMK alliance with 1-3 seats. The Republic TV-CNX exit poll also makes similar predictions giving the AIADMK alliance between 58-68 seats and the DMK alliance between 160-170 seats. It gives the AMMK alliance between 4-6 seats. Thus, MK Stalin appears all set to dethrone AIADMK that was crippled by the absence of the late Jayalalitha.
West Bengal:
This was perhaps the most hotly contested election with incumbent Mamata Banerjee up against the full force of a highly motivated and resourceful BJP. Different exit polls predict different outcomes that range from an all-out victory for Banerjee to a photo finish with the BJP. There are a total of 294 assembly seats in the state with 148 being the majority mark.
The ETG Research poll gives the TMC 164-176 seats, giving the BJP between 105-115 seats, leaving the Congress-Left alliance with 10-15 seats. Meanwhile, the P-MARQ poll predicts TMC victory in 152-172 seats, while the BJP gets 112-132 seats, leaving the Congress-Left alliance with 10-20 seats. The results of the ABP C-Voter poll are also consistent with this with the TMC getting 152-164 seats, BJP between 109-121 seats and the Congress-Left alliance getting 14-25 seats. Similarly, the CNN News18 exit poll gives the TMC 162 seats, while BJP gets 115 and the Congress-Left alliance gets 15 seats.
But the findings of the Republic TV-CNX predict a dead heat of sorts. According to them, TMC will win 128-138 seats while the BJP could also get as many as 138-148 seats, leaving the Congress-Left alliance with 11-21 seats. Similarly, the India Today-Axis My India poll gives the TMC 130-156 seats and the BJP 134-160 seats, predicting yet another dead heat.
Jan ki Baat is the only exit poll that gives the BJP a clear majority with 162-185 seats and the TMC only 104-121 seats.
All eyes are now May 2 when counting of votes will take place.
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