Five of Bihar’s constituencies will go to the polls on Monday, May 6, with the state holding polls in a handful of its 40 parliamentary constituencies in every phase of the Lok Sabha’ elections seven phases. In 2014, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 22 seats in Bihar, the highest number. In 2009, however, while the BJP won 12 seats, the Janata Dal United (JD(U)) won the most in the state–20 seats.
In 2019 in Bihar, the NDA is going up against the Mahagathbandhan, which comprises the Congress, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), and other smaller parties. Bihar is part of India’s Hindi Belt, and has been struggling with a major jobs crisis. FirstPost reported that the overall unemployment rate in Bihar is 10.9%, citing the Centre of Monitoring India Economy’s December 2018 report. This is higher than India’s unemployment rate, which was 6.9% as of mid-March 2019. Moreover, graduates in India have an unemployment rate of 13.2%, but graduates in Bihar have an unemployment rate of 19.4%. For those who completed class 10 and 12, the unemployment rate in India is 10.6%, and the unemployment rate in Bihar is 18.6%.
Per FirstPost, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and current Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar are both unpopular among Bihar’s workers, most of whom belong to a Scheduled Caste or are part of the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs). FirstPost noted that demonetisation “disturbed the informal sector,” and that Kumar’s move to ban sand mining in July 2017 further exacerbated the crisis. “It ruptured the calculations of the state’s workforce, which comprises of the uneducated, semi-educated, and those who are educated but unemployed,” FirstPost noted.
On Monday, Hajipur, Madhubani, Muzaffarpur, Saran, and Sitamarhi are voting for their members of Parliament. The BJP and its allies all secured a win all five constituencies in 2014. However, as the Economic Times notes, the political landscape has changed in 2019. For example, the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLS) won in Sitamarhi in 2014, but the seat “has gone to the RJD as part of its share in the opposition alliance,” the Economic Times noted, adding that barring Saran, where BJP and RJD are in a direct contest, the other seats are playing host to races where “either regional or sub-regional parties are taking on each other.”
Hajipur is the bastion of Ram Vilas Paswan of the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), who is the sitting MP current Union Minister of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution. Paswan won his debut Lok Sabha contest in 1977 from Hajipur with a record margin of more than 4.2 lakh votes, per LiveMint, and has since won the seat nine times. While he is not contesting in the polls this time around, the LJP has fielded his brother, Pashupati Kumar Paras from the seat. He is running against Shiv Chancier Ram of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).
Paswan has fielded family members in three of the six Lok Sabha seats that have been allocated to him through the NDA, India Today noted, calling the Bihar 2019 Lok Sabha polls a “litmus test for dynasts”. Polling has concluded in Bihar’s Jamui and Samastipur constituencies, where Paswan’s son, Chirag Paswan, and his brother, Ramchandra Paswan were contesting.
Hajipur is part of India’s Red Corridor, which comprises areas that experience Naxalite-Maoist insurgency. The constituency gets funding from the Backward Regions Grant Fund Programme, per FirstPost, which said that people from Scheduled Castes, and the Bhumihar community “dominate Hajipur in north Bihar.” The Hajipur constituency is reserved for candidates from Scheduled Castes.
Madhubani is Bihar’s cultural capital, and home to the famous and widely popular Madhubani painting style. The constituency covers parts of the Darbhanga and Madhubani districts, which is home to 13.52 lakh Hindus, and 17.5 lakh Muslims, per FirstPost. The area’s economy relies on agriculture and the export of Madhubani products.
The New Indian Express noted that the Madhubani constituency “will witness a triangular contest for the first time after 1976,” adding that, “After Begusarai, Madhubani was a CPI bastion,” but that it has changed due to caste politics. The area has a significant population of minorities and the Yadav community, which could make it difficult for the BJP to hold on to the seat, The New Indian Express opined.
Former UPA minister Shakeel Ahmed is contesting as an independent from Madhubani, where the BJP has fielded Ashok Yadav, the son of five-time BJP MP Hukmdev Narayan Yadav, who is the current MP. Badri Purbe of the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) is running against Yadav as the candidate from the grand alliance. Purbe is the son of a former MLA. Mukesh Sahni, president of the VIP, told the Economic Times, “In 2014, the Nishads and Bania voters were with Modi,” adding, “However, this time, this vote will come to us as my party is contesting the seat. We will take around one lakh votes which went to the BJP last time.” Ahmed’s independent run may upset the race, though; he has previously won from Madhubani twice, and was hoping to once again get a Congress ticket, but decided to run as an independent candidate after the seat was given to the VIP, the Economic Times noted. On Wednesday, May 1, the CPI announced that it would back Ahmed, further muddying the race in Madhubani.
Muzaffarpur, in Bihar’s ‘litchi bowl’, is famous for being the constituency of the late George Fernandes, a socialist leader who won from the seat after the Emergency, and four more times after that. He won twice on a Janata Party ticket, twice on a Janata Dal ticket, and once on a JD(U) ticket, the Hindustan Times noted. In 2014, the BJP’s Ajay Nishad secured a win in Muzaffarpur, and is re-contesting in this year’s Lok Sabha elections. Ajay is the son of the late Jai Narain Prasad Nishad, who also won from the Muzaffarpur seat in multiple Lok Sabha polls, India Today noted, adding, “The senior Nishad is credited for consolidating the Nishad voters in Muzaffarpur.”
Mukesh Sahni’s VIP, which has been allocated three Lok Sabha seats, claims to “battle exclusively for the rights of the Mallah (boatman) community, which has long been seen as pro-NDA in Bihar,” India Today noted, adding that the Mallah caste falls under the EBC category, and has last names like Nishad, Sahni, and sometimes Manjhi. Raj Bhushan Choudhary Nishad, a medical doctor, is the VIP’s candidate in Muzaffarpur. India Today noted that Muzaffarpur’s race “has emerged as the war for Mallah leadership” because the seat is “dominated by the Mallah caste,” and also because Raj Bhushan is aiming to garner Mallah votes that would have gone to NDA, and also disrupt the race for Ajay Nishad. Per India Today, Sahni, who calls himself a “Son of Mallah,” is aiming to create a voting bloc of the Mallah caste, much like the blocs of the Jats, the Jatavs, the Kurmi-Patels, and the Yadavs. India Today opined that EBC votes, comprising around 30% of the Bihar’s electorate, “has always been seen as Nitish Kumar’s pocket borough,” adding that Sahni “manages to make a dent, it will hurt the NDA.”
The VIP seems to have made a favourable impression on the Mallah community. A group of them told the Indian Express, “Paswan ke neta Ram Vilas Paswan hai, Mushahar ke neta Jitan Ram Manjhi hai, Kushwaha ke neta Upendra Kushwaha hai. Ab hamari bhi apni party hai, ab hum bhi kisi ko symbol denge. Ab tak to dusron ke bharose par the (Ram Vilas Paswan is the leader of Paswans, Jitan Ram Manjhi is leader of Mushahars and Upendra Kushwaha is the leader of Kushwahas. Now, we have our own party. We can also distribute tickets and do not have to depend on others).”
Caste plays a key role in electoral politics in Bihar. Per FirstPost, Muzaffarpur is home to an equal proportion of people from the Bhumihar, Muslim, Sahni and Yadav communities. FirstPost noted that the Bhumihar and Sahni communities “influence voting in their areas while the Kayasthas are influential in the Muzaffarpur town,” adding that Vaishyas also comprise a significant section of voters in the constituency.
The Saran constituency is “one of the most politically significant constituencies in teh country,” FirstPost stated, noting that RJD president Lalu Prasad Yadav won from the Chapra constituency, which was dissolved in 2008 to create the Saran constituency. Yadav won in 2009, and his wife Rabri Devi ran in 2014, but was defeated by Rajiv Pratap Rudy of the BJP. Rudy is re-contesting in 2019, going up against Chandrika Rai of the RJD. The Hindustan Times noted that the two candidates hail from elite, rival schools in Patna–Rudy from St. Michael’s and Rai from St. Xavier’s–and both became legislators at a young age, in their late twenties.
The Saran constituency includes large areas of the Saran district, per FirstPost, which said that the district is home to around 4.74 lakh people who belong to Scheduled Castes, and also gets aid through the Backward Regions Grant Fund Programme.
The Sitamarhi constituency borders Nepal, and includes large areas of the Sitamarhi district, which has a significant Muslim population–7.4 lakh, FirstPost noted, adding that it is also an economically backward region and gets funds from the Backward Regions Grant Fund. Sitamarhi’s sitting MP is Ram Kumar Sharma of the RLSP, which is led by Upendra Kushwaha, a former BJP ally. In 2019, Arjun Rai of the RJD, which is part of the grand alliance in the Bihar, is running against Sunil Kumar Pintu of the JD(U).