How Chhattisgarh voted, how the results shaped up: ADR

In an interesting analysis of the vote share of the winners in the recently held Chhattisgarh state assembly elections, the Association for Democratic Reforms and Chhattisgarh Election Watch that analysed the vote share for the all 90 constituencies in the Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections, 2023, have found . In the 2018 elections winners won by an average of 46% of total votes The voter’s turnout for the Chhattisgarh Assembly election 2023 was 76.31% whereas voter’s turnout in Chhattisgarh assembly elections 2018 was 76.88%.

Detailing this further, the report states that

47(52%) winners won with 50% and above of the total votes polled in their
43(48%) winners won with less than 50% of the total votes polled in their
8(47%) out of 17 winners with declared criminal cases have won with a vote share of 50% and
39(54%) out of 72 crorepati winners have won with a vote share of 50% and

Further, the report finds that only 38 % of the total registered voters determined the winner. This implies that the winners represent on an average, 38% of the total electorate. In the Chhattisgarh State Assembly Elections, 2018 won by an average of 35% of the total registered votes. As crucially, while five assembly seat winners won with a victort of less than 1,000 votes, three have won with more than 30 % of margin of victory.

Reflecting on the voting turnout which was 76.3`% in 2023 as compared to 76.88 per cent in 2018, winners of the Chhattisgarh state assembly elections, 2023 won by an average of 50 % of total votes polled. In the 2018 elections, winners won by an average of 46% of total votes polled.

How many persons with criminal records won and what was their margin of victory?

13 out of 17 winners with declared criminal cases have won against a runner up with a clean background.
Among these 13 winners, 5 winners have won with more than 10% margin of
Among these, Gajendra Yadav (BJP) from Durg City constituency won with 78% margin of victory

Figure – Voter Turnout

Figure: Vote Share Percentage of Winners – Chhattisgarh: 2018 and 2023

47(52%)winners won with 50% and above of the total votes polled in their constituency.
43(48%)winners won with less than 50% of the total votes polled in their constituency.

Figure: No. of Winners- Vote Share

8(47%)out of 17 winners with declared criminal cases have won with a vote share of 50% and above.
39(54%)out of 72 crorepati winners have won with a vote share of 50% and above.

Representativeness of Winners

All the winners of the Chhattisgarh State Assembly Elections, 2023 won with an average of 38% of the total registered voters. This implies that the winners represent on an average, 38% of the total electorate. In the Chhattisgarh State Assembly Elections, 2018 won by an average of 35%of the total registered votes.

Figure – Comparative Analysis- Representativeness of Winners add table

Margin of Victory

5 winners have won with a margin of victory of less than1000
3winners have won with more than 30% margin of victory.

Winners with Declared Criminal Cases and their Margin of Victory:

13 out of 17winners with declared criminal cases have won against a runner up with a clean background.
Among these 13winners, 5 winners have won with more than 10% margin of victory.
Among these, Gajendra Yadav(BJP) from Durg City constituency won with 78% margin of victory.

Crorepati Winners and their Margin of Victory:

13out of 72 crorepati winners have won against a non-crorepati runners up.
Among these 13winners, 3 winners have won with more than 15% margin of victory
Among these, Brijmohan Agrawal (BJP) from Raipur City South constituency won with 06%margin of victory.

Performance of Women Winners:

Among the 90winners, 19 are women.
All of them won with 35% and aboveof vote share in their constituencies.
Among the women winners, Chaturi Nand (INC) from Saraipali Constituency has won with the highest vote share, i.e. 57%in her constituency and 24.83% margin of victory.

Performance of Re-elected Winners:

Out of total 24re-elected winners, one has won with less than 40% of vote share in their respective constituencies. 11(46%) have won with more than 50% of vote share.
15(62.5%)re-elected winners have won with less than 10% margin of victory whereas 1 has won with more than 40% margin of victory.

NOTA:

The NOTA button instated by the ECI in 2013 gave the voters the option of rejecting all the candidates in their constituency. Out of 1,56,34,933 votes polled in Chhattisgarh Assembly, 2023, 1,97,678 (1.26%) were polled for NOTA.

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