India tops list of countries at risk due to misinformation: what does this mean for India’s democracy?

On September 12, 2022 large scale unrest broke out in England’s Leicester between the residing Hindu and Muslim communities. It was fuelled by a racket of fake news that was created, according to the Scroll, “continents away.” The incident witnessed heavy violence with people armed with sticks and bats, ready for confrontation, after 300 young masked Hindu men marched two miles in the city to a Muslim majority area, according to The Guardian. Experts believe the fake news that spurred the violence was sought to have originated in India after a rumour was spread that one girl was kidnapped by Hindu men. The fake news was busted by the police shortly, but the damage was already done. How pervasive is fake news that it is able to capture the sentiments of Indians across the globe?

According to a recently released report by the World Economic Forum titled Global Risks Report 2024 reveals that India has topped the list for when it comes to the countries that are having wide networks of misinformation and disinformation. According to experts, out of all potential risks India is the country which is most at risk for its citizens to encounter fake news and misinformation. This ranking comes before concerns about infectious diseases, illicit economic activities, wealth and income inequality, and labour shortages. Other nations at high risk for the impacts of misinformation and disinformation include El Salvador, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Romania, Ireland, Czechia, the United States, Sierra Leone, France, and Finland. In these countries, the threat is considered to be among the 4th-6th most hazardous risks out of a total of 34 anticipated over the next two years, contrary to India where it is the number one risk. India seems to have carved a unique niche for itself as a landscape where misinformation persists. The Global Risk report links the spread of fake news to societal violence.

Al Jazeera also reported that on a global scale the misinformation circulating on social media since October 7 attack by Hamas in southern Israel revealed that that a considerable portion of it originates from or is propagated by accounts aligned with right-wing inclinations and are based in India.

What are the factors that are involved?

In India, according to Statista, about 687 million internet users are plugged into their mobiles, getting the lowdown. Furthermore, according to a 2023 survey by Reuters and the University of Oxford, a solid 72 percent of people in India are scrolling through for their news online on their phones, with social media playing a significant role in providing the news.

Thereby, in comparison, only 40 percent of respondents resort to print media during the same period. India, being the second-largest internet market globally. According to Statista, a big factor behind this is when back in 2007, Reliance Jio. Reliance Jio services in 2007 played a pivotal role, introducing enticing schemes and subsidies that transcended income levels and socio-economic classes. The repercussions were fast and quick as Jio services took control over 60 percent of mobile data traffic within a decade of their launch.

How is India’s press fairing at this turn? Continuing a downward trajectory observed since 2017, India witnessed a further decline in its press freedom ranking, landing at 161 out of 180 countries in the 2023 World Press Freedom Index unveiled by Reporters without Borders. Scoring 36.6, India has found itself as one of the countries where the liberty of the press faced significant threats. The assessment of the Press Freedom Index for 2023 takes into account various factors and is based on a survey of the country’s political, economic, and sociocultural contexts, as well as the legal framework and safety levels within the country.

The government in 2023 also publicised attempts to tackle fake news. In January 2023, the Editor’s Guild of India had called upon the government to stop the amendments to the IT Rules - 2021 that were being made by the Ministry of Electronics and Technology.

They were asserting that this new step would include changes to the country's information-technology regulations and thus would amount to censorship. The proposal would give the government power to prevent social media platforms from sharing any information that could be flagged by authorities as false. The move was seen by journalists as a means to gather power and control over the internet and journalism. The changes proposed by the government included that if there were any information categorised by the government as “fake” by the government’s Press Information Bureau then the government would deliberate actions to prevent that information being shared or disseminated in any way on the internet.

India marked as country most prone to ‘social polarisation’

Health, religion, and politics are the most common topics that fake news revolves around, according to a survey by the Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research. Similarly, the Global Risk Report has found strong links between misinformation and social polarisation. It has ranked polarisation among the top three risks across both the present and the next two years across the globe.

Just like the incident of riots in England cited above where rumours from social media abounded and led to heightened communal sentiments, rumours have been historically linked to propagating riots. With the coming of social media and the surge in fake news, the ground becomes even more worrisome for fakes news to lead to violence. Thus, the report by WEF further highlights that polarisation is made worse with technological threats as they are often not kept in mind by the government. Furthermore, the report identifies India as the country most susceptible to experiencing heightened social polarisation in the upcoming year due to the surge in misinformation and the proliferation of false narratives.

A recent report from BOOM Live's survey of fact checks revealed an alarming conclusion where it was noted that Muslims in India are the primary targets of misinformation and disinformation campaigns which are fuelled by communal sentiments. The examination was based on data accumulated over the past three years and highlights a consistent pattern of fake news disproportionately affecting the Muslim community. According to BOOM Live's findings spanning from 2021 to 2023, the Muslim community remained the main focus and arguing point in numerous disinformation campaigns.

The Global Risks Report 2024 by the WEF had highlighted how vulnerable the global scene and landscape has become due to the effects of the pandemic. It states that pandemic has created “fertile ground” for the rampant spread of misinformation and disinformation.

During the pandemic, a report by Vice detailed that there was an alarming surge in misinformation. Some of this, according to the report, would often come from government sources. The report details that the spread of fake news has generally been associated with issues ranging from Islamophobia and conspiracy theories to unverified herbal remedies and the congregation of migrant workers. Presently, unverified assertions, like the questionable ‘COVID-19 cure’ promoted by herbal company Patanjali and flagged by official bodies as misleading, continue to circulate.

BJP and its multiple links to fake news campaigns

According to a report by The Print from 2020, a recent study was conducted by a software analyst who looked at the prevalence of propaganda and fake news on Twitter which revealed an alarming pattern. He noted that for every account that promoted the Congress and shared misleading information, there were reportedly about 120 accounts who did the similar task but favouring the BJP. The study further showed that there were 17,779 such accounts that were supporting the BJP compared to 147 linked to the Congress.

Similarly, a field report by Washington Post uncovered an operation that there's a hidden campaign behind the trolls present online. This is behind the scenes and is separate from the official social media trends. Insights from BJP staff, campaign consultants, and party supporters, shared in the ground-breaking report by Washington Post in September 2023, has exposed the party's covert partnerships with anonymous content creators who oversee what they term as "third-party" or "troll" pages. These content creators excel in producing incendiary posts which are designed to polarise and communalise sentiments on platforms like WhatsApp. This is done to cater to the party's base. Furthermore, the Washington Post report delves deeper into Meta, the parent company overseeing WhatsApp, Facebook, and Instagram. It revealed that Meta's repeatedly failed to sufficiently act against the dissemination of hate content, including fake news. There are also claims of leniency towards BJP leaders who breached its terms. SabrangIndia's coverage earlier last year had looked at Meta's annual human rights report and noted that activists are unhappy and critical and have pointed out that the platform is uninterested in curating a strategy to quell rampant hate.

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