Karnataka: While Congress lead increases, a neck to neck fight challenges party workers & organisation

If the overall trend of the voters which is towards the Congress continues like this, the grand old party could get more than 20 seats, and there is a possibility of surprising results in some constituencies. However, the rider even here is the fragmented Congress party organisation, which is still wanting in reaching the INC’s Nyaya Patha to the people

Eedina’s Final Pre-Poll Survey indicates voter preference tilting towards the Congress with serious challenges being its fragmented organisation. With ten days to go for the first phase of Lok Sabha elections in Karnataka, scheduled for April 26, while the state’s voter preference is leaning towards the Congress, there are serious challenges in the run up to the polls reveals a Final Phase Survey conducted by eedina.com.

The survey estimates that the Congress as a whole will have more than 13-18 seats and the BJP-JD(S) alliance will go closer to 10-13 seats.

Twenty out of the state’s 28 seats is what the Congress could pull in here if the workers and organisation buckle down in reaching its attractive Manifesto (Nyay Patha) to all crucial constituencies in the state. If however, the party falters, the BJP could race to the finish at the last minute. On March 19, a survey by the Eedina group (Eedina.com) that had accurately predicted a comfortable victory for the Congress in the state elections of May 2023 had shown a 17:11 lead for INDIA (Congress) over NDA (BJP-JDS) with seven seats, indicating a neck to neck fight. While the Congress vote share has shown an increase in the past year and the BJP vote share and seats both a decline, 45% of those surveyed, however, still want Narendra Modi to have a third term. Karnataka sends 28 Members of Parliament (MPs) to the Lok Sabha.

April 16, 2024 Survey

Now this Final Survey shows how, as campaign picked up the prospects of the grand old party have improved. The Congress’s vote share has increased by 2.64% in the last one month. The vote share of the BJP-JDS alliance increased by 1.92%. But the contradiction lies in the fact that 50% of the voters surveys also said that they were satisfied with the ten years of Narendra Modi government, 39% of the voters said that they were not satisfied and 11% of the voters said that they do not know.

In many constituencies, the battle between the Congress and the BJP-JDS alliance is close and so intense that the final picture of a definitive conclusion as to who will win. The survey data clearly points to such a situation.(Not only this, Congress is in a better position this time in the constituencies where the vote share was less than BJP by 13-14% in the previous elections)

According to the findings of the Final Pre-Poll Eedina Survey, the Congress will win 9 seats definitely and BJP-JDS will win 7 seats. The uncertainty lies in the remaining 12 constituencies, where there is fierce fight with the Congress is ahead in 5-7 seats. The survey estimates that the Congress as a whole will have more than 13-18 seats and the BJP-JD(S) alliance will go closer to 10-13 seats.

If however the leads of the Congress, which have been steadily increasing its vote share so far, continue in this fashion, the Congress party could win 18 seats, according to the survey data.

In every Lok Sabha election in Karnataka since 1996, the BJP’s vote share has been steadily increasing. But for the first time, this Survey finds that the BJP will experience a vote share drop for the first time in the last 28 years.

Eedina. Com is the only media house in Karnataka, which had given the most accurate pre-election survey during the 2023 Karnataka Assembly Elections. Eedina.com has conducted two surveys about who the voters are inclined towards in this Lok Sabha election and which party can get more seats this time.

In the first survey conducted before the announcement of the candidates, the Congress got 43.77% vote share, BJP-JDS 42.35% vote share. The first poll predicted the chances of Congress winning in 11 constituencies and BJP-JDS alliance capturing 10 constituencies. This Survey said that there is a fierce fight between the Congress and the BJP-Dal alliance in 7 constituencies, and in the fierce competition of these seven constituencies, the Congress has an upper hand in 6 constituencies and BJP in 1.

In what it terms as the Final Survey Report published on April 16 by Eedina.com, 42,674 voters were interviewed for this survey from March 28 to April 14, after the announcement of official candidates of all parties. According to this survey report, voters’ inclination towards Congress has increased. Congress vote share has increased by 2.64% within a month. BJP-JDS vote share increased by 1.92%.

Voters agree that inflation, unemployment and corruption have increased during the decade long Modi era However, the survey also found that Modi has maintained his ‘clean hands’ charisma despite the explosive Electoral Bonds Scam exposure. During the survey, voters answered questions about price hike, unemployment, corruption, tax injustice, election bond scam, Karnataka’s five guarantee, ten years of Modi rule.

Although it is true that inflation, unemployment and corruption have increased during the ten years of Modi’s rule, people appear not ready to put the responsibility on the head of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Even though they accept that BJP has indulged in corruption, a majority still say that Modi is not corrupt.

However Siddaramaiah is a more popular leader than Modi in Karnataka. 42.27% of voters said Jai for Siddhu, while 40.81% of voters said popular leader is Modi. Three quarter percent more people like Siddaramaiah than Modi.

Who do you think is most responsible for this price hike?

A high 85% of the people surveyed said that there is a price hike (76.55% in the first survey). 44.17% people said that BJP is the reason for the price hike. 23.07% said it was due to Congress. 21% said that all parties are the cause and 8.71% said they don’t know.

Are you willing to vote for congress in favour of Guarantees?

In this April 2024 Survey, 52.28% of Karnataka voters surveyed, have expressed that they would vote for Congress in favour of Guarantee Schemes while 35.26% have said they will not vote for Guarantee Schemes. In first survey the people who are willing to vote in favour of Guarantee Schemes was at 56%.

Has unemployment increased or decreased in the last ten years? If more, who is responsible?

A large section of those surveyed felt that Unemployment is excessive. A significant 37.89% of the people surveyed said that BJP is the reason for the unemployment and 19.88% of the voters said that the cause was the Congress. Another 18.26% of those surveyed said that everyone is the cause and 11.29% of those surveyed said that they don’t know. A small 1.64% of those surveyed put unemployment at the door of the JDS. 11.03% said that there was less unemployment than before.

Has corruption increased or decreased in ten years? If more, who is responsible?

A significant 36.4% of the people who participated in the Survey said that BJP is the reason for the increase in Corruption while 21.45% said that it was because of the Congress, and 18.08% said that all parties were the cause. 11.16% of people said they don’t know. According to 11.36% of voters Corruption is less than before.

Do you think the central government has reduced the tax share of Karnataka state?

41.87% said that the actions of the Central Government were unfair, 27.34% did not agree and 30.8% said they do not know.

Are you satisfied with the Narendra Modi administration of these ten years of central BJP government?

A significant 49.99% of people are satisfied, 38.64% are not satisfied, 11.36% don’t know.

On the question of awareness of Congress Guarantees at the National level 48.59% have expressed the view that they are unaware of the poll promise in the Mahalaskhmi scheme.

Despite being released on April 5, 2024, a good ten days back, the Congress Party’s “Nyaya Patra” election manifesto of 25 guarantees has not yet reached the people. The Congress vote share could to increase further if the declaration of 1 lakh rupees per family per year under Mahalakshmi Yojana and complete loan waiver of farmers reaches voters through a door to door campaign. Then, the Congress may garner more than 20 seats in the state and are set for a surprising result.

However the lacklustre and fragmented Congress Party organisation poses a serious challenge.

Survey Demographics

2023

(The pre-election survey which was accurate about the seat distribution of the assembly elections held in the state last year)

The results of the pre-poll survey on Eedina.com (above), which were announced 20 days before the polling of the state assembly elections last year, and these were as accurate as any survey can get.

Compared to this 2023 Survey, with only ten days are left for the first phase of the current Lok Sabha elections in Karnataka, the Survey suggests that even at this stage, the voters of the state have not made up their minds where there votes will go.

This indicates that the last lap of the election campaign which includes minute level ‘election management’ is crucial and will finally determine the ups and downs of the results.