#Misleading: Yogendra Yadav predicts BJP will not achieve majority, Prashant Kishore twists his comments to mean BJP will win

Even as Yadav, in his 6-minute video, predicts a loss of almost 50 seats for BJP, “Godi media” and Kishore create a false scenario of Yadav predicting a third term for BJP
Image: Hindustan Times

On May 25, an article titled “After Prashant Kishor, Yogendra Yadav predicts BJP win; Congress tally to be…” was published in the Hindustan Times (HT), which implied that psephologist-turned-politician Yogendra Yadav had, along the line taken by Prashant Kishor, predicted a third term for the current ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at the Centre. It was further alleged in the article that as per Yadav’s prediction, Indian Nation Congress might be able to win around 100 seats in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections, but will not be able to achieve an electoral revival against BJP.

Its not just that the aforementioned assertions in the HT article were by themselves misleading and false, the prediction video put out by Yadav on the evening of May 24 did not at all convey what the article itself or the headlines implied. Interestingly, the said article was also accompanied by a statement made by Prashant Kishore wherein he had supported Yadav’s seat forecast. In Kishore’s statement, he has alleged that Yadav, who is “a trusted face”, had predicted that BJP will win between 240-260 seats in the Lok Sabha elections and its allies 34-45 seats, bringing the total of NDA’s seats between 275 and 305 seats.

Not unrelated to this “prediction scenario” that has heated up in the week before the last phase on June 1, this quick statement of Prashant Kishore came after he was relentlessly trolled on social media, particular ‘X’ (formerly Twitter), after his interview with journalist Karan Thapar last week.

In the said interview, Thapar had asked Kishore how confidant he was over his recent predictions of BJP sweeping more than 303 seats in the Lok Sabha, and not facing any actual dent in the current elections. In the 5-minute clip from that interview had gone viral on social media, Kishore could be heard losing his cool when Thapar pointed to his previous two predictions in state assembly election which had been wrong. As highlighted by Thapar, Kishore’s prediction that Congress party would be routed in Himachal Pradesh and BRS would be wining in Telangana (2022) had proved to be wrong. On the face of such grilling, in the video clip, Kishore could be seen denying he ever said this and losing his temper!

After having faced heavy trolling on social media, the present post backing Yadav had been put out by Kishore.

“Yogendra Yadav ji, a trusted face among those who understand elections and socio-political issues in the country, has shared his “final assessment” of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. According to Yogendra ji, in these elections, BJP may get 240-260 seats and NDA allies may get 35-45 seats. Meaning BJP / NDA may get 275-305 seats. 272 seats are required to form a government in the country and BJP/NDA has 303/323 seats in the outgoing Lok Sabha. (Shiv Sena won 18 seats as part of NDA but is no longer with them) Now you can judge for yourself whose government is being formed. You will know on 4 June who is talking about whom.”

Self-serving interpretation of Yadav’s prediction by Kishore?

The said post was based on a video released by Yadav on May 25, wherein he has released his final assessment of the election trends after 5 Phases of voting and his on-ground experience. After watching Yadav’s video, it becomes clear that the interpretation put out by Kishore was misleading and self-serving.

In actuality, Yadav’s prediction does not provide a landslide win for BJP at all. As per the numbers put forth by Yadav, Bharatiya Janata Party in itself will surely be falling short of reaching the majority mark and will be able to win seats within the range of 240-260. It is to be noted that to attain majority, a party must win more than 272 seats in the Lok Sabha. In addition to this, Yada predicts that BJP allies will be able to win seats between the range of 35-45.

To explain his prediction, Yadav states that in the Southern, Eastern and North-Eastern part of India, BJP might be able to gain seats in the state of Kerala, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and the union territory of Puducherry, the loss of that the party will face in Karnataka and certain states of North-East India will even out the tally. According to Yadav, only the allies of the ruling party will see a benefit in the number of seats. With this, Yadav opines that unlike what the majority would like for the people of India to believe, BJP will not be making any headstrong gain in the Southern and North-Eastern states.

Coming to the Northern and Western states, including the Hindu-belt which contributes mainly to the ruling party seats, Yadav predicts major losses of seats in states like Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Haryana, Punjab and the union territory of Delhi. In all of these states, even BJP allies have not been predicted to make any gains.

Based on these numbers, Yadav conservatively predicts a net loss in the number of seats that BJP will suffer through in the current Lok Sabha elections. It is also to be highlighted here that Yadav predicted a further loss of seats in face of a heavy anti-Modi wave happens prior to the conclusion of the remaining polling phases. Concluding the video, he states that in case a further decrease in seats takes place, the combined NDA, comprising the BJP and its allies, might then not be able to reach the majority mark.

Attempts to misguide?

As the news of Yogendra Yadav, who most look up to and trust for exit polls during elections, predicting a win for BJP started gaining momentum, Yadav himself took to ‘X’ to berate the “Godi media”, a name that has been given to the biased pro-Modi media, for spreading false news. In his post, Yadav called out those who spread these misleading statements in his name, asking people to watch his video.

“Look at the games of Godi Media – I said this time BJP will not get majority, maybe NDA will also not get majority. Godi Media says I predicted BJP’s victory! I said BJP will lose 50 seats or more, it will get less than 250 seats. Godi Media says I agreed with Prashant Kishore (who had predicted more than 303 seats). You can see the video yourself to know what I said.”



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