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As the Covid-19 crisis continues to test the capabilities of the nation, the emergence of discrepancies in data put out by states and the Centre seems to be the most appalling. Last week in Maharashtra, it was discovered that 1,328 deaths of Covid-19 patients had gone unreported across the state. Prior to that, the Central Information Commissioner had issued an advisory to the Centre to designate a nodal authority to fill the information gap with regards to designated Covid-19 hospitals across the country. In Gujarat, where the cases grew at an alarming speed, the Covid-19 dashboard that gave daily updates of cases in the state, has now stopped working and the daily press briefings on the coronavirus situation in the state were suspended long ago.
At a time when transparency is paramount for providing a clear update of where states stand in their fight against Covid-19, the inconsistency in data by various arms of the government make it difficult not to question its authenticity.
In light of this, People’s Union for Civil Liberties (PUCL) did an analysis of Covid-19 updates from Surat, one of the fastest growing urban centers in India which houses many diamond, textile and other heavy industries. The first positive case for Covid-19 was identified on March 16, 2020 of a London returnee lady, till June 18, 2020 it increased to 3017 cases according to SMC Covid-19 dashboard and 2904 as per Covid-19 updates. Currently, as per the Surat Municipal Corporation (SMC) it has 3,197 confirmed / positive cases, while according to the Central govt. dashboard, it stands second in the Covid-19 tally in the state with 3,233 cases – a difference of 36 cases.
The analysis by PUCL seeks to see the daily Covid-19 related announcements and press releases by the SMC in a perspective and consolidated manner over a period from April 16, 2020 till May 31, 2020. It also aims at providing feedback to the authorities and demanding required course correction.
The observation by PUCL is that there is absence of coherence in the data provided by SMC through its daily Covid-19 updates and data put up on Covid-19 dashboard on SMC website. The analysis reveals that there is more confusion than clarity. It points towards lack of coherent strategy to fight the pandemic and its impacts.
The analysis by PUCL was divided into three parts – Testing, Positive Tests and Zone Wise Positive Cases.
Surat Testing
The first strategy to deal with the coronavirus by the Indian government was Tracking, Testing and Treating. However, it soon fell short on all three parameters, especially testing and continues to do so.
The report points out that in the High Court of Gujarat in Suo-Moto PIL 42 of 2020, the Advocate General of Gujarat, Kamal Trivedi argued that if more testing would have been done, 70% of Ahmedabad would test Covid-19 positive5. This starkly points that the announced strategy and implemented strategy of Gujarat government is both different and contradictory.
As on June 18, the cumulative total of tests conducted in Gujarat was 287,647 which is 48.47 tests per million. The government pursued Specificity Testing due to the shortage of kits at the start of the lockdown, however when the supply of kits improved, admittedly by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), the Gujarat government didn’t move from Specificity Testing to High Sensitivity Testing.
About Surat, the report stated, authorities claimed Screening exercise in a door to door survey. But the health department surveyors, comprising untrained ANM workers or nursing college staff were not given any equipment, not even a handheld thermal scanner. The door to door screening was dependent only on oral response from the head of the family or whoever was present at the home.
By the end of the second lockdown which ended on May 3, 13,578 tests were conducted in Surat – which is 340 tests per day and 56 tests per million, a better average than the state of Gujarat. By the end of the third phase of the lockdown on May 31, this improved to 65 tests per million with 395 tests being conducted daily. However, the number fell drastically during Lockdown 4 with the daily tests coming down to 321 at 53 tests per million.
An analysis of the figures presented by the Surat Municipal Corporation (SMC) showed that at the end of the second lockdown, there was a net pendency of 1173 tests results. By the end of the 4th lockdown, this number came down to 1,132 but it was never cleared. It begged the question, “Why has the SMC discontinued giving figures for the number of tests conducted daily and details on Positive and Negative test results?”
Surat: Positive Tests
From 1st positive case on March 16, 2020 till May 31, 2020 the positive cases in Surat stood at 1597 as given in the updates, 1662 as shown on the Covid dashboard, 1624 as total of bifurcation provided and 1399 as provided in the Zone wise data by SMC. These figures from the same source, i.e. SMC do not match each other. “Why such discrepancy or mismatch? This mismatch has to be explained and answered,” questioned PUCL.
From April 15 to May 3, 2020 there was a discrepancy of 104 cases in the daily cases and the total cases reported by the SMC. By the end of the fourth lockdown on May 31, this difference increased to 118 cases, none of which were accounted for in the daily updates thereafter. PUCL said, “The SMC discontinued giving details on health conditions of admitted positive patients from April 18, 2020 just two days after the updates were first published. From May 29, 2020 the SMC has discontinued giving bifurcated details of the positive cases.”
Surat: Zonewise Positive Cases
Central Zone
The Central zone in Surat covers 18 corporator wards with an area of 8.18 sq./km and has a population of 408,760 with density of 49,971 per sq/km. From 28 cases on 16/4/2020 the central zone had 196 cases on 31/5/2018 as per zone wise data, however the total cases as per daily cases was 219. A difference of 23 cases.
The previous day closing total and the next day opening total differed 9 times during the whole lockdown period till 31/5/2020. There was a difference of 19 cases during lockdown 1 & 2, and 2 each for lockdown 3 & 4, totaling to 23.
East Zone
The East Zone which includes Varachha A and Varachha B zone, an area of 37.525 sq/km and has a population of 1,137,138 with density of 30,303 per sq/km. Varachha A zone covers 11 corporator wards.
From 5 cases on April 16, 2020 there were 211 cases on May 31, 2020, however the total cases amounted to 190 as per daily count. Difference of 21 cases is unexplained.
The previous day closing total and the next day opening total differed 11 times during the whole lockdown period till May 31, 2020. There was a difference of 12 cases during lockdown 1 & 2, during lockdown 3 it was -1 and 10 cases during 4th lockdown.
In Varachha B, From 2 cases on April 16, 2020 there were 37 cases on May 31, 2020, however the total cases amounted to 34 as per daily count. Difference of 3 cases is unexplained.
The previous day closing total and the next day opening total differed only 3 times during the whole lockdown period till May 31, 2020. There was a difference of 2 cases during lockdown 3 and 1 case during 4th lockdown.
Rander
The Rander zone in Surat covers 11 corporator wards with an area of 51.279 sq/km and has a population of 424,986 with density of 8,288 per sq/km.
From 16 cases on April 16, 2020 there were 73 cases on May 31, 2020, however the total cases amounted to 71 as per daily count. Difference of 2 cases is unexplained.
The previous day closing total and the next day opening total differed 8 times during the whole lockdown period till May 31, 2020. There was a difference of 1 case each during lockdown 1 & 2 and 3.
Katargam
The Katargam zone in Surat covers 12 corporator wards with an area of 36.363 sq/km and has a population of 705,163 with density of 19,392 per sq/km.
From 2 cases on April 16, 2020 there were 253 cases on May 31, 2020, however the total cases amounted to 228 as per daily count. Difference of 25 cases is unexplained.
The previous day closing total and the next day opening total differed 13 times during the whole lockdown period till May 31, 2020. There was a difference of 11 cases during lockdown 1 & 2, 1 case during 3rd and 13 cases in 4th lockdown.
Limbayat
The Limbayat zone in Surat covers 12 corporator wards with an area of 19.492 sq/km and has a population of 748,304 with density of 38390 per sq/km.
From 31 cases on April 16, 2020 there were 570 cases on May 31, 2020, however the total cases amounted to 470 as per daily count. The huge difference of 100 cases is highest in Limbayat Zone and remains unexplained.
The previous day closing total and the next day opening total differed 13 times during the whole lockdown period till May 31, 2020. There was a difference of 78 cases during lockdown 1 & 2, 12 cases in lockdown 3 and 10 cases during 4th lockdown.
Udhna
The Udhna zone in Surat covers 12 corporator wards with an area of 61.764 sq/km and has a population of 695,028 with density of 11253 per sq/km.
From 7 cases on April 16, 2020 there were 189 cases on May 31, 2020, however the total cases amounted to 178 as per daily count. A difference of 11 cases is unexplained.
The previous day closing total and the next day opening total differed 7 times during the whole lockdown period till May 31, 2020. There was a difference of 3 cases each, during lockdown 1 &2 and 3 and 5 cases during 4th lockdown.
Athwa
The Athwa zone in Surat covers 11 corporator wards with an area of 111.912 sq/km and has a population of 347,447 with density of 3105 per sq/km.
From 5 cases on April 16, 2020 there were 45 cases on May 31, 2020, however the total cases amounted to 41 as per daily count. Difference of 4 cases is unexplained.
The previous day closing total and the next day opening total differed 5 times during the whole lockdown period till May 31, 2020. There was a difference of 3 cases during lockdown 1 & 2 and 1 case during lockdown 3.
In the wake of these findings, PUCL put forth recommendations to ensure the transparency of data which included that the state government proactively publish all the important Covid-19 data with district/city details on its website for public viewing and scrutiny, set-up an expert panel to investigate the glaring discrepancies in the Surat Covid-19 data, conduct regular press conferences and publish all the Covid-19 testing, positive and negative case data with important bifurcations.
Apart from this PUCL recommended that authorities ensure hygiene facilities and PPEs, remuneration for frontline workers, health personnel and safai workers and encouragement of independent researchers to take up analytical studies regarding the handling of the pandemic by the government.
The entire analysis by PUCL may be read below.
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