Pursuant to the conclusion of polling on June 1, exit polls were released by various news organisations and survey agencies. As was suspected, or one can say expected, most of the exit polls showed the elections to being tilted towards the current ruling party, Bharatiya Janata Party, predicting a landslide victory for them. In the state of Maharashtra, surveys like India Today – Axis My India, News24 – Today’s Chanakya, and Republic-Matrize showed the Mahayuti alliance easily winning majority seats in the state.
On the other hand, Rudra exit-poll painted a different pictures for the MVA and the Mahayuti alliance, predicting a win for the MVA with 34 seats, with the Uddhav Thakrey led Shiv Sena (UBT) winning the most seats at 14, followed by Congress with 12 seats, and the Sharad Pawar NCP faction getting 8 seats.
According to the said exit-poll, Mahayuti alliance will be able to get a total of 13 seats, with the BJP winning 8 seats, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena getting 3 seats and Ajit Pawar’s NCP getting only 1 seat. The remaining one seat would go to other parties, completing the tally of 48 seats.
The report Rudra Survey-Exit Poll includes seat-share and vote-share data. As per the data, a 46% vote share for MVA and 43% vote share for Mahayuti is predicted. The exit poll further showed the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi gaining a 3% vote share and the remaining 8% going to others.
Rudra survey — exit polls
Maharashtra— 48 seats
MahaYuti— 13
MVA — 34
Others — 1 pic.twitter.com/HgRCFBQyhF— Sudhir Suryawanshi (@ss_suryawanshi) June 1, 2024
A detailed region-wise analysis of the Rudra exit polls showed that out of the six Mumbai seats, 4 will go to Uddhav Thakrey-led Shiv Sena, and 1 each to Congress and BJP brings MVA’s tally to 5 in Mumbai. In the Konkan region, out of the total 6 seats, 2 are predicted to be won by BJP, while the four are to be divided equally amongst Shinde faction SS, Thakrey faction SS, Ajit Pawar faction of NCP and Sharad Pawar faction of NCP.
Furthermore, for the 8 seats of Uttar Maharashtra, 3 seats are forecasted to be won by BJP, while the rest 5 is predicted to be won by the MVA. In Vidharbh, where there are a total of 10 seats, the exit poll predicts Mahayuti winning 3 seats, 2 by BJP and 1 by Shiv Sena, and MVA winning 7 seats, 2 by SS (UBT), 4 by Congress and 1 by NCP (SS).
The full table on region-wise predictions can be viewed as follows:
The seat wise predictions also provides an insight upon some of the key seats being fought upon in Maharashtra. As per the data, in Mumbai North, BJP’s Piyush Goyal will secure a win with 62% of the vote share, defeating INC’s Bhushan Patil, who is expected to get 35%, with 3% going to other candidates. The victory margin is predicted to be 2,60,000-3,00,000 as per Rudra Exit Poll.
In Mumbai North East, Shiv Sena UBT’s Sanjay Dina Patil is anticipated to win with 52% of the vote share, beating BJP’s Mihir Kotecha, who is projected to receive 44%, with 4% for others.
For the Mumbai North Central seat, INC’s Varsha Gaikwad is predicted to win with 51% of the vote share while BJP’s Ujjwal Nikam is expected to secure 46%, leaving the remaining 3% for others.
In the highly contested Mumbai South seat, Shiv Sena UBT’s Arvind Sawant is expected to secure a third consecutive win with 51% of the vote share. His opponent, CM Shinde-led Shiv Sena leader Yamini Jadhav, is projected to get 43%, with the remaining 6% for others.
The seat wise predictions are as follows:
It is essential to note that DB Live, a digital channel of the Deshbandhu newspaper, also released an exit poll which was similar in the lines of the Rudra exit poll and predicted MVA securing a majority number of seats in Maharashtra. According to the Deshbandhu Exit Poll, conducted in association with Electline of India agency, the MVA is forecasted to win 28-30 seats, while the Mahayuti is expected to win a total of 18-20 seats.
Related:
Why Indian exit polls are often biased and favour the ruling party