The research paper titled “Democratic Backsliding in the World’s Largest Democracy” by Sabyasachi Das, assistant professor of economics at Ashoka University, was published on July 25 on the Social Science Research Network. Das argued that the BJP won a disproportionate share of closely contested parliamentary seats in 2019 Lok Sabha polls, especially in states where it was the ruling party at the time.

The paper states that, “The density of the incumbent party’s win margin variable exhibits a discontinuous jump at the threshold value of zero”. This implies that the BJP won disproportionately more in constituencies where it was the incumbent party and which were closely contested. “Moreover, the BJP’s disproportionate win of closely contested constituencies is primarily concentrated in States ruled by the party at the time of election,” it says.

The author of the paper that has generated much comment on social media, Sabyasachi Das says that he did not find similar “discontinuities” in the previous general elections for either BJP or INC (Indian National Congress), the other major national party, as well as for State Assembly elections held simultaneously with the 2019 general election and those held subsequently.

However, the author also points out that this alone does not necessarily imply that electoral manipulation has taken place in the election. The author considers two leading explanations for the above-mentioned patterns. It is possible that the BJP knew what elections are going to be close and worked harder there, resulting in disproportionate wins of close races. The second possibility is ‘Electoral Manipulation’ wherein the party manipulates voter rolls and votes polled.

The author has also claimed that this alleged electoral manipulation by the BJP also appeared to have taken the form of targeted electoral discrimination against Muslims, “partly facilitated by weak monitoring by election observers”.

However, he argued that his research was “not proofs of fraud” and does not “suggest that manipulation was widespread”. “Proving electoral manipulation in a robust democracy is a significantly harder task that would require detailed investigation of electoral data in each constituency separately”.

National Election Survey

On the initial point, the paper analyses the National Election Survey (NES) of 2019 which has micro data on election campaigning and does not find evidence that the BJP campaigned more in places where they won by a close margin. “Citizens do not say they were visited more by a party worker/candidate from the BJP in constituencies barely won by the BJP”.

The paper then explores further evidence in favour of the election manipulation hypothesis.

It states, significantly, that, after the 2019 polls, the Election Commission initially put out two separate lists of vote counts — constituency-wise “final” EVM count of votes polled across candidates and constituency-wise number of votes counted in Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs).

“These numbers, however, do not match with the PC-wise number of votes counted in the EVMs, as available in the official website of the ECI. This is unusual as votes polled and votes counted in the EVMs should be identical and when the media pointed this out, the first list was deleted”. The paper finds that the mismatch between the twice released turnout data is significantly higher in constituencies barely won by the BJP, which certainly hints at manipulation or fraud. Moreover, the pattern is, as before, concentrated in States ruled by the BJP. The academic work argues that manipulation is local at the booth level.

Further, it also suggests that the manipulation appears to be concentrated in constituencies that have a high share of observers who are State civil service (SCS) officers from BJP-ruled States, and unlike the IAS, they may be more politically pliable.

Ashoka University cringes, disassociates itself from the work

“This paper contributes to the discussion by documenting irregular patterns in 2019 general election in India and identifying whether they are due to electoral manipulation or precise control, i.e., the incumbent party’s ability to precisely predict and affect win margins through campaigning,” Das has analysed. “I compile several new datasets and present evidence that is consistent with electoral manipulation in closely contested constituencies and is less supportive of the precise control hypothesis.”

Yesterday and today, august 2, the paper was widely discussed, especially on social media. with several influencers, including the Opposition leader Shashi Tharoor, using the findings to raise concerns about the state of Indian democracy. Other users, with political leanings towards the BJP, sharply criticised  Das’ research. They hit back saying that such conclusions discredited India’s democratic and electoral processes.

Most tragic however was the reaction of the university. On Aug 1, Ashoka University – where Das teaches economics – issued a statement dissociating itself from his research. “Ashoka University is dismayed by the speculation and debate around a recent paper by one of its faculty members (Sabyasachi Das, Assistant Professor of Economics) and the university’s position on its contents,” said the Haryana-based private institution.

It added: “The University encourages its 160-plus faculty to carry out research, but does not direct or approve specific research projects by individual faculty members…Social media activity or public activism by Ashoka faculty, students or staff in their individual capacity does not reflect the stand of the University.”

Reactions to Ashoka university

The university’s statement was in turn criticised by other academics and prominent personalities. Many sharply lampooned the university for failing to stand by a faculty member and bowing to pressure. Joyojeet Pal, an associate professor at the University of Michigan’s School of Information, said in a tweet that faculty around the world should look at Ashoka University for “how weak institutions throw junior faculty under the bus”.

“Not only is [Sabyasachi Das’] work empirically solid, it is supported by the work in several other fields, including ours,” Pal said.

Narayani Basu, a historian and foreign policy analyst, concurred. “Debate is the actual purpose of academia & if that’s what a….*checks notes* …. “liberal arts” university is dismayed by, it speaks volumes about its lack of spine & integrity,” Basu wrote in a tweet. “Throwing your own under the bus is cowardice.”

Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, a professor of economics at Yale University, said that “the goons have already gotten to Dr Das’ employer”.

Suhas Palshikar, a renowned political scientist who taught political science at the Savitribai Phule Pune University, said that academic freedom has “met with its end finally among the country’s institutions” when a “prestigious private university goes out of its way to tweet to dissociate itself” from an ongoing research.

“With undeclared restrictions on research and field work by scholars based outside of India and squeezing of autonomy of researchers within the country, we are managing to scuttle the core ability of social science research to examine, critique and search for alternatives,” Palshikar wrote on Twitter on August 2. Palshikar added, “[Restrictions on research] will enhance the project of creating ignorant and obedient citizens and servile and ideologically committed administrators.”

Nandini Sundar, professor of sociology at the Delhi School of Economics, concurred. “Excellence in research and teaching can only flourish if there is academic freedom and universities don’t bend over backwards to disassociate themselves from research that is inconvenient to ruling regimes.”

 Bruno Maçães, an author and Portugal’s Secretary of State for European Affairs, wrote that Ashoka University seemed to be “running scared”. “Faculty publish papers, that’s what they do,” Maçães wrote on Twitter.

Despite the university’s statement, some at the institution such as Gilles Verniers, director of Ashoka University’s Trivedi Centre for Political Data, expressed support for the faculty member. “I condemn the vicious attacks against [Das], a colleague of rare courage and integrity,” Verniers tweeted on Wednesday. “If we don’t leave room for research that is inconvenient, we shut the door to the possibility of fixing our problems.”

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Appeal to non-BJP opposition Parties Regarding 2019 Elections

The post Were the 2019 general elections free & fair? appeared first on SabrangIndia.

In a third reminder, dated November 19,2019 addressed to the Election Commission of India(ECI), the Constitutional Conduct Groupconsisting of 64 retired civil servants, has sought answers: their first letter on this issue was sent on July 2, 2019, with two subsequent reminders, but there has been no response from the Election Commission to date. The effort has been endorsed by 83 veterans of the defense services, academics, and other concerned citizens. Again, in today’s letter, they have, again,  specifically requested for conducting a social audit of a sample of EVMs/VVPATs used in the Lok Sabha elections to assess the integrity of the results. The group has also sought a meeting with the Election Commission to discuss the modalities further.

The letter raises issues that d are critical for the well-being and proper functioning of our democratic republic. Our group has been in touch with your predecessor, Shri O.P. Rawat, on a number of issues related to the conduct of elections. As a group of former civil servants, many of whom have been associated with election processes over the past six decades, the authors say they “consider it their duty to work with the Election Commission of India (ECI) to address the doubts that have arisen in the public mind about the impartiality and fairness of our electoral processes.

Further, the letter adds that, “Many of these questions would have been avoided if the ECI, currently under your stewardship, had accepted the principle of agent transparency vis-à-vis its principal, which, in this case, is the people of India. So, disclosure should be the rule rather than the exception. All information relating to the conduct of elections should be open to the public except where  specifically needing to be exempted. Even when disclosure of some information is exempted, the criteria for keeping it confidential must be made public and transparent.

The signatories have demanded that the ECI display, on its website:

the Parliament Constituency-wise, Assembly segment-wise, and polling station-wise figures of (a) votes polled in EVMs [i.e. other than postal ballots] and (b) votes as counted in EVMs. Ideally, there should be no discrepancies between the two sets of figures.

Details of the 5 polling stations chosen as ‘samples’ for each Assembly segment, and the polling station-wise figures of (a) EVM electronic count and (b) VVPAT manual count. Ideally, there should be no discrepancies between these two sets of figures also.

Full text Copies of the letter (DOC and PDF) may be read here

Text of the Letter addressed to Sunil Arora, Chief Election Commissioner                                   

Ashok Lavasa, Election Commissioner, Sushil Chandra, Election Commissioner dated November19, 2019

Sub:- Your Silence on Issues Raised with Regards to Serious Irregularities in the Conduct of Lok Sabha General Elections, 2019

Ref:- Our letter dated July 2, 2019 and reminders dated  July 10, 2019 and August 10, 2019

Please refer to the letter dated July 2, 2019 on the above subject of addressed to you by 64 former civil servants and endorsed by 83 veterans of the defense services, academics, and other concerned citizens. Subsequent reminders have been sent as indicated above.

Your failure to respond to any of the points raised in the letter and reminders, or to even acknowledge their receipt, leads us to wonder whether we will ever receive a response.

The issues raised are critical for the well-being and proper functioning of our democratic republic. Our group has been in touch with your predecessor, Shri O.P. Rawat, on a number of issues related to the conductof elections. As a group of former civil servants, many of whom have been associated with election processes over the past six decades, we consider it our duty to work with the Election Commission of India (ECI) to address the doubts that have arisen in the public mind about the impartiality and fairness of our electoral processes.

Many of these questions would have been avoided if the ECI, currently under your stewardship, had accepted the principle of agent transparency vis-à-vis its principal, which, in this case, is the people of India. So, disclosure should be the rule rather than the exception. All information relating to the conduct of elections should be open to the public except where specifically needing to be exempted. Even when disclosure of some information is exempted, the criteria for keeping it confidential must be made public and transparent.

We do not believe that there is any justification for the ECI not displaying on its web site:

the Parliament Constituency-wise, Assembly segment-wise, and polling station-wise figures of (a) votes polled in EVMs[i.e. other than postal ballots] and (b) votes as counted in EVMs. Ideally, there should be no discrepancies between the two sets of figures.

details of the 5 polling stations chosen as ‘samples’ for each Assembly segment, and the polling station-wise figures of (a) EVM electronic count and (b) VVPAT manual count. Ideally, there should be no discrepancies between these two sets of figures also.

But there have been extensive media reports about large-scale discrepancies in respect of both (i) and (ii) above. While we are aware that media reports may not always be correct, the ECI has failed the test of transparency by not disclosing the above sets of its figures on its web site, thereby paving the way for an adverse presumption being drawn in this matter.

In the interests of transparency and electoral integrity, we call upon the ECI to immediately display on its web site, the figures indicated in (i) and (ii) above;

disclose the ‘decision rules’, if any, of the ECI about manual counting in the event of discrepancies of either type occurring;

disclose if there were any occasions to apply these decision rules during the recently concluded Parliamentary Elections.

Even while our letter of July 2, 2019 was waiting for some kind of a response from you, various media reports have appeared, suggesting that unauthorized private engineers had access to the EVM and VVPAT machines in the General Elections, 2019;

Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL)and Electronics Corporation of India (ECIL) Ltd. have refused to provide information in response to to RTI queries on EVMs and VVPATs even after having collected the fees for the same, though we understand that now the RTI first appellate authority has directed the ECIL to provide the information while the BEL first appellate authority for RTI has directed them to transfer the queries relating to the number of EVMs and VVPATs deployed for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections to the ECI.

Clearly, the issues relating to the EVM and VVPAT machines are yet to be resolved satisfactorily, and the ECI, under your stewardships, needs to put this controversy to rest. Recent reports also seem to suggest that a programme installed in the VVPAT can access VVPAT memories and alter the input to the Control Unit, thereby manipulating the people’s mandate.To set at rest doubts in the public mind, we suggest a social audit of the functioning of the EVM and VVPAT machines used in the recent Lok Sabha General Elections. Social audits are an accepted tool in all democracies and, even in our country; we have used them to monitor the functioning of various social sector programmes. We are ready to work with you in the organization and conduct of such a social audit.

To conduct such a Social Audit,we propose as follows:

Access to the entire electoral records, including EVM and VVPAT machines used in 20 select Lok Sabha Constituencies (representing merely 3.6% of the total Lok Sabha constituencies), in the recently concluded General Elections, 2019, be provided to a Social Audit Group, comprising three representatives each of civil society representatives (which will include members of our group of former civil servants) and the ECI.

The twenty Lok Sabha Constituencies will be selectedby the Social Audit Group and the same will be intimated to the ECI for making the records/machines available.

The ECI will release these records, EVM and VVPAT machines under whatever supervisory arrangement itconsiders necessary to ensure that while the auditors have full access, these records are not tampered with in any way during the audit.The only rider would be that thesearrangements would not in any way fetter the ability of the Social Audit Group to examine the records and machines in any way the Group considers necessary.

To test the integrity and security system of the EVM and VVPAT machines, the Social Audit Group will, in consultation with the ECI,have the freedom to appoint an independent third-partyteam of IT experts from India or from abroad, if necessary, who have the experience of conducting hackathons. There would be no restrictions on the hackers – they would be free to check the hardware, the software, and also the programmes embedded in the chips of all these machines to determine whether the EVM/VVPAT machines are capable of being manipulated either before, during or after each step of the electoral process.

All the EVM and VVPAT machines used for the hackathon would be disabled for future use under the joint supervision of the Social Audit Group and ECI, to ensure that none of these is ever used again in any future election.

We are sending copies of this letter to the Chief Electoral Officers of all States and Union Territories, to keep them apprised of our proposal. Furthermore, as many of the electoral records, EVM and VVPAT machines are lying in the immediate custody of various state government agencies, they too are custodians of public property.

We look forward to an early response from you. A delegation from our group is willing and keen to meet you at a mutually convenient time to discuss the further modalities of the Social Audit.

The letter has been copied to the Chief Electoral Officers of all States and Union Territories

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The post ECI Silent on Serious Irregularities in May 2019 Gen Election: Constitutional Conduct Group appeared first on SabrangIndia.

Nationwide, NOTA recorded 6.5 million votes–more than the population of Ahmedabad, or 1.06% of all votes polled in the 2019 general election. This was lower than 1.08% (6 million) polled in 2014. Bihar saw the highest vote-share (2%) for NOTA this year, followed by Andhra Pradesh (1.49%), Chhattisgarh (1.44%) and Gujarat (1.38%).

Source: Trivedi Center for Political Data, Ashoka University

The option to choose “none of the above” was put in place by the Supreme Court in its 2013 judgement following a writ petition by the People’s Union for Civil Liberties, a human rights body. NOTA was envisaged to help voters express dissent while still maintaining the secrecy of their ballot to help achieve greater participation in the exercise of democracy.

“When the political parties realise that a large number of people are expressing their disapproval with the candidates being put up by them, gradually there will be a systemic change and the political parties will be forced to accept the will of the people and field candidates who are known for their integrity,” the then Chief Justice P Sathasivam wrote in the judgement.

On October 29, 2013, the Election Commission of India announced that even if the NOTA votes were higher than any other candidate in a constituency, the candidate with the most votes will be declared the winner.

“This provision made the NOTA option almost redundant,” Jagdeep Chhokar, founding trustee of the Association for Democratic Reforms, wrote in this December 2018 comment in The Hindu. “…the provision clarified that a NOTA vote would not have any impact on the election result, which is what interests candidates, political parties, and voters. Soon after this, candidates began campaigning against NOTA, telling voters that choosing the option meant wasting a vote.” 

To look at the impact of NOTA on the 2019 election result, we compared the winning margin in a constituency against the NOTA vote-share. Twenty-six of 543 constituencies saw a higher vote-share for NOTA than the victory margin. That is, if those who voted for NOTA had chosen the runner-up in a constituency, he/she would have won the race.

NOTA will also help “wide participation of people”, the Supreme Court had said in its 2013 judgement. However, election data do not show such correlation: Of the top 10 constituencies with the highest NOTA vote-share, three recorded a turnout greater than the national average.

“So NOTA remained a toothless tool,” Ajit Ranade, economist, political analyst and a founding trustee of ADR, wrote in December 2018 in the Pune Mirror. “The NOTA button is a vote of discontent and must have teeth.” He cited the Maharashtra state election commission’s decision, applicable to local body elections, as an example. Under the order, if NOTA got the most votes in a constituency, the election would be cancelled and a fresh election would have to be conducted.

Reserved seats saw higher NOTA vote
On average, reserved seats recorded a higher NOTA turnout, as we said, than general seats in 2019: 1.76% of voters in all ST seats and 1.16% in SC seats chose NOTA, compared to 0.98% in general seats.

This is in line with earlier elections, according to this June 2019 analysis by Factly.in, a data journalism portal, which studied from 43 different elections and 6,298 constituencies (both Lok Sabha & assembly) that went to polls after the introduction of NOTA in 2013.

Source: Trivedi Center for Political Data, Ashoka University

Anecdotal evidence from Gadchiroli in Maharashtra and Bastar in Chhattisgarh suggests a mobilisation of Other Backward Classes (OBC) vote favouring NOTA against the ST candidates, according to this August 2018 paper in the Economic and Political Weekly.

In Bastar, OBCs formed the Pichda Varg Kalyan Manch (Backward Class Welfare Front), to protest against ST candidates, who according to them were getting unfair rights due to enforcement of the fifth schedule which grants special rights to tribal communities.

Areas with left-wing extremism saw higher NOTA vote-share
Since the inception of NOTA, areas affected by left-wing extremism have, on average, seen a higher NOTA vote-share as compared to other parts of the country, our analysis showed.

Of the top 10 constituencies with the highest NOTA vote in 2019, six are in areas affected by left-wing related violence, according to our analysis. This includes Bastar in Chhattisgarh where 4.56% of votes cast were for NOTA–second only to Gopalganj which recorded a 5.04% NOTA vote.

Paschim Champaran (4.51%), Jamui (4.16%), Nabarangpur (3.85%), Nawada (3.73%) and Koraput (3.38%) also saw high NOTA vote-shares.

Source: Trivedi Center for Political Data, Ashoka University

State-wise data also support this trend: Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Andhra Pradesh, affected by left-wing extremism, all saw a higher proportion of NOTA vote-share.

The high NOTA vote-share in the areas affected by Naxal and Maoist insurgencies points to a possible use of NOTA as a means to protest against state machinery.

The outlawed Communist Party of India (Maoist) used NOTA to “buttress their assembly election boycott call in Chhattisgarh” ahead of the 2013 state assembly elections, according to this October 2013 Times of India report. The rebels conducted training camps with dummy EVMs in Bastar to acquaint voters with NOTA and explain its significance as a tool to “protest against the government’s oppression and exploitation,” the report said.

More voters pick NOTA in bi-polar contests
States which saw a direct bi-polar contest between the two main national parties–the Indian National Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party or their allies–saw a higher NOTA vote-share as compared to states where there was a third alternative, our analysis of 2019 election data showed.

Gujarat, which had a direct contest between the BJP and the INC, saw a NOTA vote-share of 1.38%. Bihar, which saw a bi-polar contest between the BJP-Janata Dal (United) alliance and the INC-Rashtriya Janata Dal alliance, had a NOTA vote-share of 2%.

Similarly, Andhra Pradesh, which saw a contest between the two regional parties–the Telugu Desam Party and the Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party–polled 1.49% NOTA votes.

Uttar Pradesh and Delhi, which saw three-way contests, recorded 0.84%  and 0.53% NOTA vote-shares, respectively. While Delhi had the third alternative of the Aam Aadmi Party, Uttar Pradesh saw the alliance of the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party as an alternative to the national parties.

(Bansal and Marathe are students at Ashoka University.)

Courtesy: India Spend
 

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The letter reads, “We are a group of former civil servants that takes up, from time to time, matters of exceptional national interest, seeking to remind our cherished democratic institutions of their responsibility to uphold the lofty ideals of the Constitution. We write to you today to draw your attention to the several very troubling and still unexplained issues pertaining to the conduct of the General Elections, 2019, by the Election Commission of India (ECI).”

The letter has mentioned a list of violations and irregularities this election season and has requested the EC to provide clarity on each of the concerns raised. 

Few concerns mentioned in the letter include:

1. EC’s silence over several media reports highlighting the irregularities in the elections seems to be an implicit acceptance of those reports.
2. There seems to be a connection between the delay in announcing the election dates and BJP’s inauguration of 157 projects scheduled between February 8 and March 9. 
3. The BJP members blatantly flouted the MCC by making hate speeches and communal loaded statements. However, the EC failed to take any action against them. For instance, the ‘illegal termites’ statement by Amit Shah didn’t compel the EC to react. It was only after the Supreme Court pulled up the EC did it wake up and took action, albeit selectively.
4. A show cause notice wasn’t issued to Narendra Modi despite his blatant misuse of Pulwama and Balakot issues to create a feeling of nationalism among the masses, which ultimately worked in the party’s favour.
5. Suspension of IAS officer Mohammaed Mohsin after he checked the PM’s helicopter for any non-permissible cargo reflects the glaringly apparent bias of the EC. This is reiterated by the fact that similar checks had been carried out on the helicopters of the Odisha CM Mr. Naveen Patnaik and the then Petroleum Minister Mr. Dharmendra Pradhan, with no objections from the dignitaries concerned. However, the ECI could not and did not explain its double standards. 
6. The use of local information sought by the Niti Aayog so that it could be used by Narendra Modi during his election campaign is another gross misuse of the state machinery.
7. One of the most blatant violations of the MCC and the EC turning a blind eye to it was the airing of NaMo TV despite the MCC being in place. Though EC had ordered that all the content on NaMo TV should be pre-certified by the Media Certification and Monitoring Committee (MCMC) and comply with the 48-hour ‘election silence’ ahead of every phase of voting, it continued to telecast the PM’s speeches and campaigns right till the end of the election season. “Procrastination, silence and inaction characterized ECI’s responses in so many matters.”
8. A ‘candid and apolitical’ interview with Akshay Kumar amidst the election season was another violation of MCC, which once again didn’t compel the EC to take any action.
9. “In terms of transparency of electoral funding, this election was the most opaque ever, both because of the widespread use of electoral bonds, and also because of the enormous amounts of cash, gold and drugs, amounting to Rs 3456 crores, which were seized during the polls.”
10. EC didn’t respond to multiple reports of EVM tampering except merely and repeatedly stating that EVMs are tamperproof.
11. People’s confidence in the EVMs would have been greater if the EC had been more cooperative about using the Voter Verifiable Paper Audit Trail (VVPATs) in a manner that would confirm the results of the EVMs, but from the beginning the ECI was extremely reluctant to match the number of votes recorded in EVMs with the votes in the VVPAT machines on any significant scale, despite representations by different groups, including political parties. 

The letter raises severe concerns over the growing misconduct in the largest democrartic exercise in the world. It expresses regret over the EC’s approach, which once was appreciated and respected worldwide for its ability to conduct free and fair elections. Requesting the EC to take note of all these grave irregularities and provide clarifications on each of the doubts raised, the letter states, “In the interests of ensuring that this never happens again, the ECI needs to pro-actively issue public clarifications in respect of each of these reported irregularities, and put in place steps to prevent such incidents from occurring in (the) future. This is essential to restore the people’s faith in our electoral process.”

The letter dated July 2, has been signed by 64 former IAS, IPS and IFS officers: Harsh Mander IAS (Retd.), Government of Madhya Pradesh, Mohinderpal Aulakh IPS (Retd.), Former Director General of Police (Jails) Govt. of Punjab, Shiv Shankar Mukherjee IFS (Retd.) Former High Commissioner to the United Kingdom, P.S.S. Thomas IAS (Retd.) Former Secretary General, National Human Rights Commission, just to name a few. 

The letter has been endorsed by veterans of the Armed Forces, academics and concerned citizens such as: Lt Gen C.A.Barretto, PVSM, Arundhati Ghosh, Arts Professional, Bangalore, C. P. Chandrasekhar, Professor, JNU, Anita Dighe, Concerned Citizen, NOIDA, among others.
The letter says, “It is indeed, saddening to witness the process of the demise of that legacy. If it continues, it is bound to strike at the very heart of that founding document the people of India proudly gave themselves – the Constitution of India – and the democratic ethos that is the very basis of the Indian Republic.”

The post “This election was the most opaque”: Former civil servants write to EC appeared first on SabrangIndia.

Mandate of the people? Please! Hitler too, was brought in by the mandate of the people remember? Remember how the people of Iran chose Khomeni by popular mandate? Have we opened the door of our country to fascism? I used to have more faith in our electorate than this! But I guess people invariably get the governments they deserve! Some of us are, sadly, in a microscopic minority.

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When the mind is full of fear but the head is held high;
When knowledge is no longer free;
When our world has been broken up into fragments by narrow domestic walls;
Where words come out from the depth of untruth;
Where tireless striving stretches its arms towards destruction;
Where the clear stream of reason has lost its way into the bloody desert sand of deathly habit;
From this hell of captivity, let us break free,
As our minds lead us forward into ever-widening thought and action,
Into that heaven of freedom, my People, let my country awake.

– Anonymous
 
 (With apologies to Rabindranath Tagore although I’m sure he would sympathise.) 
 

The post Poem – INDIA : ELECTION 2019 appeared first on SabrangIndia.

Mandsaur:
This is the region most associated with the farmers’ unrest in the state. In June 2017, 6 farmers were gunned down in cold blood in Mandsaur when they tried to highlight their plight in wake of the agrarian distress perpetuated by unfriendly government policies on Minimum Support Price (MSP) for purchase of farm produce. But instead of being treated with compassion in the aftermath of the killings, farmers and locals were slapped with multiple criminal cases while the policemen who shot and killed the protesting farmers got a clean chit not only by the BJP government led by Shivraj Singh Chauhan, but also subsequently by Home Minister Bala Bachan who is a part of the Kamal Nath led Congress government. This moved riled Congress leader Digvijay Singh so much that he stated that the matter will be reinvestigated. 

The Mandsaur parliamentary constituency covers the assembly segments of Jaora, Malhargarh, Suwasra, Garoth, Manasa, Jawad, Neemuch and Mandsaur. All of these places are either predominantly agrarian or serve the regions agricultural economy with logistical support, fertiliser plants or as transit hubs. Needless to say, a blow to agriculture serves as a jolt to the economy of the entire region.

Mandsaur has remained a BJP stronghold since 1989, with only Meenaksi Natarajan of the Congress managing to win once in 2009. The sitting MP is Sudhir Gupta of the BJP. Natrajan and Gupta are up against each other. According to census data, 18.6 per cent of the population belongs to Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes comprise 2.5 per cent. The Muslim population stands at 9.37 per cent.

Indore:
Often called Mini Mumbai, Indore is one of the most important centers of business and industry in the country. However, small and medium enterprises suffered a body blow due to demonetisation and the manner in which GST was rolled out. The region is in the middle of its worst unemployment crisis in years!

Indore parliamentary constituency covers the assembly segments of Indore, Sanwer, Rau and Delpur. According to census data, 16.6 per cent of the population belongs to scheduled castes and 6.6 per cent belongs to scheduled tribes. 12.67 per cent of the people identify as Muslims.

A traditional BJP bastion for the last three decades, Indore however misses its ‘tai’ Sumitra Mahajan, the MP this constituency has elected since 1989! But after the party’s dilly dallying on naming the candidate forced Mahajan to withdraw her name from the race, the BJP has fielded Shankar Lalwani who is fighting his maiden election. He is up against INC’s Pankaj Sanghwi and BSP’s Deepchand Ahirwal.

Ratlam:
Formerly known as the Jhabua lok sabha constituency, Ratlam covers the assembly segments of Alirajpur, Jobat, Jhabua, Thandla, Petlawad, Sailana and Ratlam (Rural and City). This region has a significant tribal population. According to census data 28.2 per cent of the people belong to Scheduled Tribes. Also 13.6 per cent belong to scheduled castes and 10.38 per cent identify as Muslims. 70 per cent of the people live in rural areas.

This is a traditional Congress bastion with only Dileep Singh Bhuria winning on a BJP ticket in 2014, but he was previously with the INC and had won from the constituency five times on an INC ticket before! In the 2015 by-poll four time INC MP Kantilal BHuria won the seat back. This time he is up against BJP’s Guman Singh Damor.

The post Farmers and Small Business Owners could determine Electoral Fate of Contenders appeared first on SabrangIndia.

 
Mumbai: The Election Commission on Monday censured Congress leader Milind Deora for his reported remarks pressing the Jain community to vote against the Shiv Sena.
 
The poll body said that Deora, a Congress candidate from South Mumbai, violated the provisions of the model code in a speech during a rally in Mumbai.
 
“The Commission, after considering his reply found it violative of para 1 and para 3 of MCC and therefore Commission censured him and warned him to be more careful in future,” the EC said.
 
The ECI’s action came after Deora while addressing an event at Zhaveri Bazar, had accused Shiv Sena of hurting religious sentiments of Jain followers. The Mumbai Congress president urged the Jain community to teach them a lesson by not voting for the party in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections.
 
“Shiv Sena has been against the minorities. A few years ago, the party insulted the Jain religion by cooking meat outside Jain temples during Paryushana festival. Remember, you have to teach them a lesson through your votes,” he had said at an event.
 
Later, one of the Shiv Sena candidates complained to the EC stating that the allegations made by Deora were “false and are religiously sensitive”. Following this, the EC looked into the matter and had asked the police to register an FIR.
 
Earlier, he was served with a show cause notice for his reported remarks that Jains should teach Shiv Sena a lesson in the Lok Sabha elections for allegedly cooking meat outside a Mumbai temple during Paryushana festival in 2015.
 
The Paryushana festival is an annual event within the Jain community in which an eight-day fast is observed.
 
In 2015, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation banned the sale of meat for four days during the festival. The BJP-led government had pushed for an eight-day ban but the Sena, which had a majority in the civic body, refused.
 
The Mumbai South constituency went to the polls on April 29. The seat is currently held by Shiv Sena’s Arvind Sawant, who beat Deora in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.
 
With inputs from ANI.
 

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The NDA won 73 seats with 41 per cent of the vote share in 2014. They won 325 assembly constituencies with a similar vote share in 2017. It’s simplistic to attribute these results to a Modi wave, or dismiss it as an anomaly or one-off and so on.

We know the BJP isn’t doing all that well this time around and we think we know what’s going on. But, let’s start by planting a flag. After five phases, we think it’s time to be clear about how the trends we have seen translate into numbers. We will NOT mention individual seats till the 20th when we will publish a seat by seat breakdown with the local factors that impacted polling on each seat.
 

We expect the SP-BSP-RLD gathbandhan to win between 40 and 55 seats, likely closer to 55 than 40. We expect the BJP to win between 15 and 25 seats. There is a slim possibility that they will win 30, but we think that’s unlikely now and expect them to trend closer to the lower end of this range. The Congress is likely to win 5-9 seats.

Honestly, what interests us more is how the BJP’s average vote share will change — we are projecting a drop of between 3 and 5 per cent. Here’s a map on the impact difference in vote share makes just using 2014 vote shares as a base.

A vote share represents different types of people with different motivations — it is made up of some people who agree with an ideology, others who believe they are finding space (and access to power) for their particular identity, there are those who care about an issue or a set of issues and believe in a party’s position on those issues, and then others who find themselves believing in a person.

Clearly, the BJP has supporters who believe in their vision for the country rooted in a particular ideology. They also have a set of people who believe in Narendra Modi and think he’s the best leader for this country. In this election, the BJP has retained both these groups of voters and definitely added many first time voters to the second.
But, they’ve lost more than they’ve gained.

In the run-up to 2014, Amit Shah moved quickly to capitalise on years of work by the BJP wooing non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits in Uttar Pradesh. By picking office-bearers and candidates from these communities the BJP offered itself as the first party of choice for people who felt left out by the SP, BSP and Congress. These people had expectations rooted in what they believe had happened for the Yadavs and the Jatavs — access to power that translates into a disproportionate share of benefits, and increased respect in their neighbourhoods because of proximity to power.
Adding them to the upper-caste voters they already had, the BJP built a formidable coalition around a charismatic leader who promised a lot.

The Narendra Modi government has centralised power like no one since Indira Gandhi. That has resulted in the perception that MPs have very little influence in New Delhi. And after the Yogi government came to power in Lucknow, disillusionment set in as the perception that their MPs had little power spread even more. It began with the choice of Yogi Adityanath as CM — an unexpected choice that took the backward-caste voter by surprise. Throughout the period of our study we keep pickup up rising resentment against the perception that Thakurs have too much influence. True or not, it’s also ended up impacting sections of the Brahmin vote.

The last-ditch attempt to replace sitting MPs with other candidates hasn’t gone down well either.

We believe there is a section of Kurmis and Kushwahas who haven’t voted for the BJP this time — they may have just decided to sit this one out, but the turnout suggests they have voted for the SP-BSP gathbandhan. And there’s a minor revolt brewing in the Nishad community as well.

And it will not be easy for them to recover from — communities in this part of the world have long memories.

Which brings me to Ayodhya. There is a simple question being discussed there for which the BJP has no answer — after having power for five years in the centre and two years in the state, why is there no progress on the temple?

But there is one group of people that may turn out to be the most significant: women.

Cutting across caste and community lines women voted for Narendra Modi in 2014. To them, he represented an economic promise. “Good times,” they believed would arrive soon — their lives would become easier.

Demonetisation was a shock. It broke their trust. While men revelled in an outpouring of schadenfreude believing the rich were suffering, it was women who saw their small savings become worthless, who scrambled to buy food or pay for essentials.

The stray cows that are roaming rural UP added insult to injury.

And well marketed, but poorly executed schemes, have only added to a growing anger amongst women — who’ve stayed quiet.

It is likely they are using this election as an opportunity to teach Narendra Modi’s BJP these lines written by William Congreve in 1697:
Heav’n has no rage, like love to hatred turn’d,
Nor hell a fury, like a woman scorn’d.
 

The “undercurrent” is an earthquake. A series of tremors fuelled by mostly disappointment and sadness but also anger and a sense of betrayal. Tremors that grow stronger where Muslims are turning out in record numbers for the candidate they expect will defeat a BJP candidate. And because Yadav and Dalit voters are enjoying a battle where they can fight with each other, instead of against each other.

We expect these tremors to intensify in the last two phases.

We are also seeing a rising excitement around the realisation that this isn’t only a vote against Modi any longer. That each vote may count towards a Mayawati led central government.

This may well result in a rout in the Eastern UP.

A Method to our Madness

Anthro.ai is an experiment in alchemy — between experienced communications specialists, data scientists, anthropologists and mathematicians; and between the human mind heart and our instincts, and immersive data streams.

We have ingested and analysed nearly all publicly indexable data in, or about, UP. This includes news stories, job postings, classifieds about farm equipment, questions and answers about entrance exams, twitter posts etc. We have tried to match this data to a 1 square kilometer grid of Uttar Pradesh. We generate different patterns from this data — and immerse ourselves in these patterns.
Additionally, we join and quietly observe public fora.

We believe in the power of the human mind to connect the dots. No matter how complex the world gets, our brains continue to make sense of it for us. More often than not, how successfully we navigate complexity is a function of the dots we are able to see.

Our models start with answers to three basic questions: what do people hope for, what do they aspire to, and what are they scared of. Using the answers we come up with, we come up with motivations and triggers and then model how that translates into a vote. We then take historical electoral data — map swings there — and try and see how our model would impact electoral outcomes.

Lastly, we try and come up with markers/proxies for what the results may look like. These have ranged from predicting turnout numbers, to the use of a particular topic by a key politician in their messaging. If we see enough of our markers pop up, we start to believe in one of our models over others.

For every constituency in UP, we have a pre-poll prediction and the reasons why people turned out. We will publish this after the 19th, and before the 23rd of May.

Courtesy:https://anthro.ai/
 

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Bhadohi: An FIR was registered against BJP MLA Dinanath Bhaskar for allegedly thrashing the presiding officer of booth no.359 in Aurai assembly constituency under the Bhadohi Lok Sabha constituency of Uttar Pradesh.
 
Bhadohi went to polls in the sixth phase of Lok Sabha election held on Sunday, May 12.
 
“MLA and three others thrashed him alleging voting being held at a slow pace. An FIR has been registered and action is being taken,” the police said.
 
BJP has fielded Ramesh Bind from this seat while the SP-BSP alliance has fielded Rangnath Mishra. Ramakanth Yadav is contesting from the seat on a Congress ticket.
 
In a similar incident on April 23, BJP workers at a polling booth in Bilari thrashed a presiding officer until the police intervened to save him as Moradabad went to polls.
 
BJP workers who were beating up the election officer alleged that the presiding officer was asking voters to press the button beside the cycle symbol.
 
The cycle symbol belongs to Samajwadi Party, which is contesting the elections in alliance with Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in Uttar Pradesh.
 
The counting of votes will be done on May 23.
 

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