The assembly elections results for Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa are out, and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been victorious in four states; the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has come to power in Punjab.

In Punjab, AAP seems to have won as there was a serious in-fighting in Congress and the Shiromani Akali Dal’s (SAD) poor record of the past. In Goa, BJP was greatly helped in overcoming incumbency by the Opposition disunity as apart from Congress and AAP; Mamata’s Trinamool threw their hat into the ring. In Uttarakhand and Manipur, the massive electoral machine put up by BJP had no competition from the Congress, despite incumbency going against BJP.

UP has been the real battle ground where BJP won convincingly. All over the country and more particularly in UP, the adverse impact of demonetisation, loss of employment, farmers issue has broken the back of the people. The mass migration of poor laborers with sudden Lockdown due to Corona, and the lack of Oxygen and proper health care, further worsened the plight of the people all over and more particularly in UP. This is also the state where rape and murders in Unnao and Hathras shook the country. This is the state where the farmers were crushed under the SUV by Ashish Mishra, son of the Central minister Ajay Mishra. This is the state where the new policies and polarisation around beef-cow has led to the huge number of stray cattle destroying the crops. This is the state which has slid down badly in the human indices during the last few years.

Lot of discussion in the caste equations is done in this state. Before the elections, many of OBC leaders left the BJP to join the broad coalition led by Samajwadi Party, Akhilesh Yadav. The crowd at the rallies of Akhilesh convinced most impartial journalists that BJP will be thrown out of power. Many of the ground level journalists got the feedback that Akhilesh is sure to win the elections. Then what happened?

While most of the caste calculations and anti-incumbency were favoring SP, BJP had some deeper factors working for it. These were communal polarization and efficient communication set up by RSS combine was well in place. Let us first realise that BJP is part of a larger conglomerate, led by the progenitor of Hindu Nationalism, the RSS. Every time there are elections all the Pracharaks (now in thousands) and swayamsevaks (now in lakhs) join in the electoral efforts. RSS Sar Sahkaryawahak Arun Kumar convened a high-level meeting of all the Sangh frontal organizations and asked them to help BJP in its poll campaign. 

And this time, even the RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat intervened to ask that Hindutva programs, (Ram Temple, Kashi corridor) and nationalist efforts (Balakot) are highlighted and after second phase of elections he called upon the RSS affiliates to intensify their efforts as BJP seemed to have done very badly in these two phases. Adverse caste equations were undone by deeper polarisation. Through social engineering they already have won over a substantial number of downtrodden sections. This conglomerate has also developed a huge network of communication to reach their message to the last women/man. It is remarkable how in a quiet way their message, countering rising prices, unemployment, farmers travails, the cattle nuisance and constructed fear of minorities passes through various conveyor belts to reach the people in far off places.

During the 2017 elections, BJP+ was focusing on BJP being the only party which can take up the cause of Hindus, as SP and Congress both were projected to be working for Muslims. This time around Yogi Adityanath came up with the threat posed by Gazva-E-hind and efforts of Muslims to convert India into a Muslim majority state. Yogi in particular and Modi occasionally kept targeting Muslim minorities. Modi targeted SP by saying that cycle (SP’s election symbol) has been used for exploding bombs. Association of terrorism with Muslims, though untrue, was regularly propagated. Yogi kept harping on the association of SP with Muslims and Muslims with mafia, crime and terrorism. Kairana was used as a dog whistle. Muzaffarnagar violence was deliberately associated with Muslims. His infamous 80% versus 20% was a new low in divisive direction. His use of the word Abbajan for Mulayam Singh Yadav was deliberate to promote the divisive agenda.

What will be its impact on 2024 elections is difficult to say despite Modi claiming these results show the pattern for 2024. It is true that at present there does not seem to be a credible national alternative which can halt the rise of divisive politics, erosion of our democratic institutions, growing economic disparity, the increase in unemployment and the worsening plight of farmers. Religious minorities are being intimidated and forced to live in the proliferating ghettoes with declining citizenship rights. 

The overall fall of the indices of the country on the scale of democratic freedoms and freedom of religion is alarming. The depth to which communal politics has sunk in society is very frightening. The mechanisms developed by communal forces to shape the opinions of the people at large are remarkable. The “godi media”, social media, IT cell and fake news have added on to the foundations dug by the sectarian nationalists. 

One of the major lessons of the assembly election results is that fragmented Opposition cannot take on the mighty electoral might of BJP-RSS. The claim of every oppositional political force to project her/him as the alternative is the very undoing of the process whereby communal forces can be defeated and the country can come on the path laid down in the Constitution. Can all the Opposition parties begin to form a coalition with a minimum common program based on the values of the Constitution and the concept of welfare? The leadership can be decided after the elections with the biggest component getting the PM and other components having due presentation in the leadership position. It is time that all those who stand to uphold Gandhi, Ambedkar and Bhagat Singh come together in the spirit of accommodation. The interests of the country, the people, the deprived and suffering, the people whose dignity is being trampled day in and day out is to be kept as the major focus in the alliance. It is the test of our leaders, whether they are just for personal self-promotion or genuinely care for the people in whose name they swear? 

* Views expressed are the author’s own. Dr. Puniyani is a human rights defender and a former professor at the Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay (IIT Bombay). 

Other pieces by Dr. Puniyani:

Crime and Punishment: Is the Indian Justice System Impartial?

Hijab ban: Multiple Dimensions

Promoting Amity in the Times of Hate

Christian Minorities and Indian Democracy!

Koran, Madrassas and Terrorism

Freedom of Religion and Christian minorities in India

The post Assembly Election Results 2022 Whither Pluralism: Democracy? appeared first on SabrangIndia.

The poll outcome in five states have gladdened many and disappointed others with BJP’s extremely impressive performance. But it is also a complete failure of the Opposition parties particularly Congress and BSP. The results have also exposed the embedded media. It is not merely Modi Bhakts but there is a ‘big’ anti-Modi anti-Yogi industry which gained enormously since 2014.

After the demise of ‘media’, the so-called alternative media too came from those segments of ‘professionals’ who were part of the what is termed as ‘Godi’ Media or ‘Darbari media’. The popularity these ‘alternative’ portals went extremely high. Individuals became ‘nayaks’ and Kisan Andolan ‘strengthened’ it further when ‘journalists’ became spokespersons of the ‘anti-Modi’ lobby, or in Uttar Pradesh, the anti-Yogi narrative. Their monologues were often full of misinterpretations yet in the current trends, it does not matter what you write or how qualitative and objective you are, like Godi media, the ‘alternative’ too thrived on falsification of news and complete disconnect from reality.

Those claiming ‘alternative media’ were neither alternative nor analytical but more a party, perhaps setting news ‘agenda’ for the political sponsors. They attended political rallies, spoke to ‘bhakts’ and made us ‘feelgood’ that BJP has become ‘unwanted’. The Kisan Andolan, the anti CAA Protests were legitimate movements and protests, but they cannot be projected as ‘alternative’ political parties to BJP.

Movements and their Crises

An analysis of the politically ‘apolitical’ social movement can give you understanding that most of them have ended up in helping the ‘Sangh Parivar’ and its ‘idea of India’.  The longer these ‘movements’ are pushed, the better for the BJP to exploit the inherent contradictions of society. The fault line of the political analysts and ‘social scientists’ is in their portrayal of a ‘progressive’ movement but the facts are they were more due to political marginalisation of the communities. Anna Hazare-Arvind Kejriwal’s anti-corruption movement actually emerged after Congress-led UPA won second term in the Lok Sabha in 2009. The movement in the name of ‘anti-corruption’ was led by the Savarna forces who felt that Congress was a marginalising the ‘upper castes’.

The issue of reservation in Promotion had haunted the upper castes after the Supreme Court had validated the issue of reservation for Backward communities. Congress allowed AAP to grow and dent the Hindutva party but ended up with egg on its face. Kejriwal ultimately has become the biggest tool to finish the Congress. With Punjab win, AAP is going to all the states to make it look as if it is the only alternative to BJP however the dark realities must not be forgotten that in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Goa, most of the AAP candidates forfeited their deposits. In Uttarakhand, their state president and chief ministerial face too forfeited his deposit. While Kejriwal might have become unchallenged ‘king’ of Delhi, his ‘anti-corruption’ movement ultimately helped the Sangh Parivar gain ground and decimate Congress. It also reflected that ruling Congress Party was unable to deal with political protests and it was second biggest dent after the party failed to associate with the backward communities when Mandal Commission report was implemented.

Modi government faced various movements whether the students’ protests against the marginalisation of the Dalit Adivasi students in Universities, or anti CAA-NRC protests or the farmers. Each of these movements were handled by the ruling dispensation with great contempt. The attempt was to keep them on for longer period so that it become easier to create fear among ‘others. BJP has now become ‘expert’ in the art of manipulating and using the inherent contradictions in our society. Any ruling party does so and Congress was no exception to it when in power.

The nature of the farmer protests was actually exclusive without much sympathy and support of the agricultural workers. Though Dalit participated in these protests, yet it was a reality that most of the farmers were happy with their Zamindar status and certainly turned political. BJP tried to polarise it at every level. Initially, it was dominated by the Punjab’s farmers but after the Republic Day incident last year, the farmers, particularly the Jats from Western Uttar Pradesh under Rakesh Tikait took the lead with their massive participation.

It was extremely difficult condition for BJP which has made deeper inroads in Western Uttar Pradesh by feeding into Jat insecurities through anti-Muslim narratives. The problem is that BJP was never unwanted, and like Godi media, the so called ‘secular’ or activist journalists too had their eyes shut. While the farm protests were genuine, it is also true that it became a tool for ‘political’ rehabilitation of Jats in the Western Uttar Pradesh. It is also a factor that farmer’s issues with the ruling party got resolved once the ‘bills’ were withdrawn but it seems carrying on the movement to fight against BJP at different places became counterproductive and helped the BJP. We must understand that farmer issue is important but it is merely one of the issues and not the entire issue. ‘Experts’ are ‘shocked’ to see BJP winning all the nine seats in Lakhimpur Khiri where farm protests were sought to be crushed by Union minister’s son. 

Even in Uttarakhand, Congress’s central leadership was speaking about ‘farmers’ and ignored other issues. In the Tarai region of both Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh, Sikh farmers are always considered as ‘landed’ and exploiters. A big number of people in Lakhimpur Khiri region are actually migrants from Eastern Uttar Pradesh. BJP was able to convert the narrative into Sikhs verses non-Sikhs. Farmers issues actually was unable to challenge the citadel of castes and I had actually warned about this long back in several of my videos and articles that while the issue is extremely important to protect agriculture in India, in the villages, people still vote as per their caste identities. It was surprising that Congress was focusing more on farmers issues and ignored other important issues in Uttarakhand. In Eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bundelkhand the farm laws and the movement were unable to reach agricultural workers. It was always perceived as big farmers movement and no efforts were made to make it inclusive. 

Most of the time ‘movements’ are basically related to particular issues. They have limited appeal and over-emphasis on them boomerangs most of the time. Movements have always helped the BJP in the last few decades because they have better understanding of who ‘support’ and ‘oppose’ the movement.

Caste is much powerful weapon than the issues. Frankly speaking, it was Rahul Gandhi, who had launched the farmers protests in Punjab against the farm bill. His tractor yatras were well received but once Charanjeet Singh Channi’s name was announced as chief minister the situation changed. The announcement was made very late after AAP declared Bhagwant Man as their chief ministerial candidate. It looks like the announcement was taken as an attempt to create caste-based formation. Most of the farmers were Jat Sikhs and loyal to Akali Dal. Many were Congress supporters too, but with the declaration Congress was unable to work as a team.

The party suffered from credibility crisis as party’s state president was not ready to play second fiddle. At the end, it was a reality that the Jat Sikhs were not ready to vote BJP but they opted out of Congress because of Channi being a Dalit. Unfortunately, even the Majhabis i.e. Valmikis did not come to Congress. The caste question among Sikhs is a dirty reality which most of the ‘liberal’ ‘social justice friendly’ authors and journalists deny but the defeat of Congress Party has clearly shown that Punjab was not ready for this experiment and therefore AAP benefitted from it. The Hindus in Punjab voted for AAP and not to the Congress party.

BSP’s ‘bhaichara’

The shocking results of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in Uttar Pradesh as it only got one seat reflect the growing marginalisation of the party. Even when the party’s vote percentage is 12%, it got just one seat. There is a crisis of electoral system too, as Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) with 2% votes got 8 seats while Congress got 2 seats.

BSP’s supporters were active on social media and many of them were challenging the narrative that the party is not in a position to give a fight. The party gave tickets to a large number of Muslims, but that did not help. The party felt that by giving tickets to the Muslims, it would be able to get their support. The problem that the BSP leadership did not understand was that Muslims were facing insecurities and at the moment their whole concern is to defeat BJP and for that they were ready to defeat their ‘own’ candidate to allow victory of the ‘secular’ party most likely to defeat BJP. In Uttar Pradesh, Muslims had made up their mind to vote for Samajwadi Party (SP) though both BSP and SP did not really raise their issues properly but still Muslims have always preferred SP over BSP.

It is disturbing to see Ms. Mayawati blaming Muslims for BSP’s poor performance. It is a well-known fact that BSP had started ‘Brahmin Bhaichara’ and other ‘bhaichara’ committees. The focus was on Savarna communities, particularly Brahmins. To exploit the ‘anti-Thakur’ sentiments, BSP went overboard on promoting the Brahmin power and promising Parshuram’s temple and statutes. Prabuddha Varga sammelan’s were organised and fairly large number of Brahmins got BSP tickets. The Party not only gave Brahmins tickets in large number, but has been only speaking about them. It was disappointing that no efforts were made to reach the other Dalit communities. BSP’s core voter in Uttar Pradesh is Chamar-Jatav community, and when late Kanshiram began his political journey, his focus was bringing together all the Dalits and MBC communities but that programme has now been converted into ‘sarvjan’ idea which has actually let down the other Dalit communities like Pasi, Dhobi, Khatiks and Balmikis.

During a visit to Kushinagar a few months ago, I met a district coordinator of the party from the neighbouring district. I did not know him but I was discussing the issue of party’s outreach programme, and my simple question was why the party not trying to reach to Balmikis in particular. Our Buddhist friend was also upset. After listening to us, the BSP leader said that they tried their best to bring Balmikis to the party but the community has never cooperated with them. Most of the time, the community is ‘drunk’, he said. I was enraged, and said the same argument was given by the dominant communities when speaking about Dalits as a whole. This is extremely poor argument. The neta said that they were a political party and not an ‘NGO’ and need to work as per the political ‘sameekarans’ of the area. I was shocked to hear this and informed that Baba Saheb’s mission was not an NGO but bringing all the communities together. This is the dark reality of the cadre who converted Dr Ambedkar as leader of a particular community resulting in counter movement from Sangh Parivar in other communities and creating their ‘caste’ icons. 

It is also a reality that in the battle for perception BSP had already lost as it started very late, it was not visible in the ground. Its more focus was on Brahmin Bhai chara and after Samajwadi Party’s ticket distribution, it gave ticket selectively and many people say, intentionally, though, it is party’s prerogative, to Muslims.

I do not agree with the argument of BSP fielding candidates to defeat Samajwadi Party. It is a national party and facing elimination now but, in my opinion, it is still relevant and need to be strengthened and collective leadership need to emerge particularly from diverse communities. It needs to look beyond mere calculations and raise issues of public importance. BSP has a big challenge but one can only say that it is important that party go back to its original mission started by late Kanshiram and build social coalition of various marginalised communities who are still looking for their political participation and representation.

Samajwadi’s Brahmin Mission

Samajwadi Party got 32% votes and 111 seats which was way above it got in the last assembly. Akhilesh Yadav campaigned powerfully. His rathyatras attracted huge crowds and his social media too had a dedicated team. Of late, he started speaking aggressively. His initial approach to the elections was of plain political issues such as Highways, Metro etc., and shying away from the identity issues, social justice, reservation etc.

It was only after three OBC leaders of the BJP, Swami Prasad Maurya, Dara Singh Chauhan and Dharm Singh Saini resigned and joined SP, that Akhilesh Yadav realised that the issue of OBCs matter. But those who resigned knew it well that their getting ticket was difficult. Their resignation created flutter. Suddenly, fake news started looking real since it was coming from ‘alternative media’. None of the OBC leaders raised the issue of NEET or reservation. The only issue Akhilesh Yadav spoke was of Caste census which offended none.

Like BSP, Samajwadi Party too engaged with Brahmins just to counter Yogi Adityanath’s Thakurwad. Akhilesh got trapped in the narrative being spread by the Brahmanical media in Lucknow and Delhi about ‘Brahmins’ unhappiness with Yogi Adityanath even when many of his media and close advisers were Brahmins. In his attempt get votes from the Brahmins, Samajwadi Party gave ticket to them, promised statues of Parshuram and many more things. For Brahmins, the real issue has never been Parshuram, but their political representation. They were compelling parties to give them more seats and for that, issues of Brahmin discomfort were created.

One should have asked the basic question – Why should Brahmins be ‘unhappy’ with BJP? Afterall, what has BJP done against them?  Unfortunately, it was not merely Akhilesh Yadav, but many of these allied parties too handled the things badly. The issue of Chandrashekar was handled rather badly. I had written during that time that Chandrashekhar Azad did not show maturity, but it would have been better for Samajwadi Party to deal with him. Now, Chandrashekhar Azad has fought and got the taste of political defeat, one is sure that he will focus on a particular constituency and not contest elections for the sake of media headlines.

There is a lesson for Samajwadi Party that it needs dedicated cadres and not merely Yadav loyalist. It might have leaders from different communities but it frankly does not have cadres at that level. It worked very hard but it needed much bigger alliance at the ground level. Perhaps, all the political parties need to sit and ponder over for their future programme. The party must launch its own paper and support social cultural movement. It cannot hide from the issues of the marginal farmers as well as reservation. The Party must know that mere entry of a big heavy weight politician is not an ‘assurance’ of the vote transfer from their community.

When Swami Prasad Maurya was given ticket from Fazil Nagar, the BJP had already given ticket to local MLA Ganga Singh Kushwaha’s son Surendra Singh Kushwaha. This belt is dominated by Kushwahas who have now become strong supporters of BJP very similar to Lodhs in the Central Uttar Pradesh. Kurmis and Kushwahas main contradiction these days is not with the Brahmins but with the Yadavs hence it was natural for them to go towards BJP. This work to bring diverse communities is only possible with a longer cultural movement and a strong cadre like DMK in Tamil Nadu. Samajwadi Party would do well to learn from DMK movement if it wants to survive and provide an alternative in India. It will need to work together with all the like-minded parties then it needs to support specific civil society movement with a categorical agenda of the party and not merely Bijli-sadak-pani which the Brahmanical media continue to hype.

While Akhilesh Yadav has wider acceptability, it is also a fact that Shiv Pal Yadav has better network and understanding of the political situation. The treatment given to him is well known but hopefully, things will be settled now. Akhilesh Yadav’s alliance with RLD too failed. Perhaps, it was over hyped due to farmers agitation but did not work on the ground. There are three big communities in Western Uttar Pradesh and they are Gujjars, Jats and Yadavs. The first two have now become solid supporters of Hindutva while Yadavs mostly remained with Samajwadi Party. This time, the Muslim-Jat alliance stories helped RLD win a few seats in the Mujaffarnagar-Meerut areas, but could not move beyond that.

Western Uttar Pradesh did not dent BJP’s victory march and became part of it. Perhaps, all the non-BJP political parties took this region for granted and felt that people are ready to vote to them but they ignored that the Kisans are powerful communities but they alone are not the factors as there are other communities too related to agricultural sector and caste identities come to the fore. Historical differences cannot get wiped out with merely an anti-government protest, you need to strengthen the outreach and socialise your politics.

Congress’s Ladki Hoon

Congress failed miserably. It has now been reduced to 2 seats with 2% voting. Priyanka Gandhi has been in the field for last one year and raised issues of Sonbhadra Adivasi massacre or Unnao Rape victims’ case or that of Hatharas. It was she who decided to go to Lakhimpur Khiri and was arrested by the Uttar Pradesh police. The Congress gave 40% ticket to women and their campaign slogan was ‘ladki hoon lad sakatee hoon’ which was attractive. They organised various marathons and it was reported that the crowds were ‘unprecedented’. Social media reporters of the Congress IT cell were giving thumps up to party’s campaign. It is true that Congress’s party under Priyanka Gandhi carried the biggest campaign and created an environment that benefitted Samajwadi Party the most. The feeling that BJP is facing defeat actually was created by Priyanka’s various campaigns but then when suddenly she announced ‘Ladki hoon lad saktee hoon’ as focus campaign. I felt that the campaign was more of the NGO kind of event management and not really political.

When the tickets were distributed, the Congress party knew it well that their conditions were absolutely grim and they were not in a position of coming to power but Priyanka and her team felt that they might get substantial numbers to ‘influence’ the government in Lucknow. Through ‘Ladki hoon lad sakatee hoon’ campaign, it tried to send a signal that it cared for girls and women, but politics is not merely slogans, but much more.  Most of the tickets went to ‘celebrities’ who were more active on Twitter and Facebook, but without much track record of any social or political work. The result was a large number of these over hyped ‘activists’ who might have been victims of state brutality and needed justice but does not make them leaders got much lesser votes than their Facebook or Twitter likes or retweets.

When Priyanka Gandhi found Ram Raj Singh Gond, an Adivasi leader in Sonbhadra, that was extremely bold decision and despite defeat he could be good for the party but in terms of women, most of them were ‘active’ on social media. Ladki hoon lad sakatee hoon might have generated good response but it was bound to fail as ‘celebrities’ on social media do not necessarily make it politically viable. Priyanka campaigned for the rights of the Unnao rape victim but giving ticket to her mother Asha Singh might have got symbolically more points in social media but failed to enthuse the people. Look at the over hyped Pankhuri Pathak for who Priyanka campaigned for two days but could get on 13,000 votes. She was reduced to nothing as the seat was won by Pankaj Singh, son of defence minister Rajnath Singh with a massive margin. There was another celebrity in Lucknow who too was rejected by the people. Congress refused to understand that elections are not merely the ‘celebrities’ but also powerful social mobilisation particularly in Uttar Pradesh where communities are seeking participation and representation. Most of the Congress’s candidates except for ‘secularism’ and Hindu-Muslim binary knew nothing.

Congress did not raise issues of the communities particularly Dalits, MBCs, Muslims and was superficially speaking about ‘sarv dharm sambhav’, temple visiting and that they are against the politics of ‘caste and religion’. Now, if you really want to provide a counter to politics of religion and castes, you will have to speak about them and not side track the issue. Most of the leaders in Congress party are still Savarnas and space for SC-ST-OBC-Muslims is very limited. Party has not been able to raise hopes for these sections. The party does neither have leaders nor network. Ajay Kumar Lalloo worked hard but he himself was reduced to third position in his constituency.

Congress needs a complete over haul. It needs a strong, big leader who give his or her total time for Uttar Pradesh. Important to create local leaders who have hold in the community and strengthen Congress’s cultural wing. Congress is still considered an upper-caste party and no serious efforts have been made by the party to win over the most marginalised sections who used to vote it earlier. The Congress’s rainbow of castes is now powerfully hijacked by BJP.

Rahul Gandhi has given Congress an ideological shape. He is also encouraging young leaders from different communities but it is time Congress develop regional satraps as it had in the past who could manage things for it. Of course, despite all its efforts, Congress leadership has not been able to connect with the people. The reason for this is probably their approach which was focusing on particular issues and though these particular issues are important but cannot change the government unless there is a massive grassroot cadre. It will not be possible for the party to emerge as an alternative in Uttar Pradesh but it still needs to focus and rebuild a strong social coalition, train activists and build narrative. It’s a gigantic task, which is difficult as most of the parties whether BJP or its opponents, both have a commonality, they have abhorrence towards the Gandhis but it is also important that despite attempt to discredit them, they remain an all-India alternative to BJP.

Each party goes through such a process and though Priyanka Gandhi campaigned powerfully, Congress was unable to stitch the coalition in Uttar Pradesh, it became a part of discourse but it was never in picture. Congress’s revival is difficult in Uttar Pradesh unless the party is revived in rest of the country and become part of power. With 2% vote share, Congress will find it difficult to revive at the moment but as a political party it must continue to raise people’s issues and build alliances much before the elections to remain relevant.

In Punjab Congress defeated its own self. The way Amrinder Singh was replaced was incorrect. Priyanka Gandhi promoting Navjot Singh Siddhu over others was also the reason. In all, a divided Congress lost all the battle. It is shameful.

The most disgusting example of Congress killing its own prospectus was Uttarakhand. While in Punjab it declared the Channi as party’s Chief Minister, in Uttarakhand it refused to acknowledge the contribution of the senior most leader Harish Rawat. Since 2002, Congress has refused to accept and respect Harish Rawat, who is still considered the tallest leader in Uttarakhand. When all the poll surveys of the hill state were predicting a tough fight but in terms of popularity of individual leaders, all the surveys indicated that Harish Rawat was way ahead of others yet party leadership refused to accept him. Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi rarely visited Uttarakhand. They travelled to the state just on election eve. Contrary to them, Narendra Modi and Amit Shah have been regularly visiting Uttarakhand and made the people feel that they are wanted and respected. Congress cannot expect victory by their leader’s tourism in the state on election eve. There was nothing specific in Rahul and Priyanka’s speeches in Uttarakhand to offer to the people which has different issues than Uttar Pradesh and Punjab.

Yogi’s Thakurwad

Yogi Adityanath was charged with preferring Thakurs and it was claimed that Brahmins were being side-lined despite the facts that brahmin presence in the Ministry as well as bureaucracy was substantial and perhaps more. Secondly, Yogi’s close media adviser was both Brahmin and Bania. To target Yogi’s Thakurwad, a few ‘experts’ in Lucknow and Delhi started this campaign that there is a ‘huge’ anti Yogi sentiment among Brahmins. Both BSP and SP jumped into it and started organising meetings to get support from the ‘brahmin’ community. In their zeal to attract the Brahmin votes, all the parties went beyond board to ‘placate’ the Brahmins who have voted massively to BJP. The attempt to create an anti-brahmin sentiment also helped Yogi Adityanath who in an interview to a national channel said that he was proud to be born as ‘kshatriya’. Many political commentators and experts felt bad about it but in the politics of identity Yogi can’t remove himself from that reality that if he loses his core constituency then he is nowhere.

BJP gave tickets to 68 brahmins and 67 Rajputs. Banias got 31. The massive chunk was for the OBCs like Kurmis, Kushwahas, Shakyas and Lodhs. Among the Dalits, it gave 30% seats to both Jatavs and Pasis. Now the results are out and one can see how BJP’s gamble paid. Total number of brahmins from BJP who got elected were 46 while SP got 5. Among the Thakurs, BJP got 43, SP 4 and BSP 1. 27 Kurmis, 19 Jatavs, 18 Pasis and 3 Yadavs are said to be elected on BJP tickets.  Clearly, the massive brahmin outreach programme of Samajwadi Party and BSP failed miserably as all the Savarna communities are extremely comfortable with BJP at the moment. Hence anti Brahmin accusation on Yogi Adityanath fell flat and looked as if was created to confuse the Opposition from raising other issues of importance.

His continuous anti-Muslim rhetoric did not help much but one cannot ignore the fact that in Uttar Pradesh things are still polarised and it worked. This is an extremely worrying phenomenon. Yogi Adityanath also got benefitted from wrong priorities by his opponents. Akhilesh Yadav’s attempt to provide space to all those who left BJP did not work well.  Today, Yogi is the most powerful face of BJP after Narendra Modi. BJP is a party which is in election mode all the time and they will definitely learn from the past mistake hence formation of Ministry and its shape will be important reflection as in which direction the party will move.

Media, money, narrative and Limits of FPTP System

While it is important to acknowledge that BJP has a powerful cadre and election winning machinery but one cannot and should not ignore the factor that they also made use of technology and system. Though Prime Minister and Chief Minister were doing big rallies prior to declaration of Election schedule, the Election Commission’s ban on big rallies was helpful for the BJP. No other party has even one third strength of BJP in terms of money and technology. There was no level playing field. There were reports of EVM malfunctioning and serious allegation on officers on duty yet nothing happened. The issue of VVPAT has never been addressed giving rise to speculation. I don’t have the data, but any win below one thousand votes gives rise to speculations and the best way would be to get the VVPAT counted and matched with the machines result. 

This was an uneven fight because BJP had massive political machinery and also used Income Tax, Enforcement Directorate and other department against political opponents. It did not care for election code of conduct and Election Commission was quiet on various violations. The language of BJP leaders during the election campaign were absolutely unparliamentary, many times threatening and intimidating but no action was taken. The Prime Minister and Uttar Pradesh chief minister used media interviews to promote their party violating the election code of conduct but no action was taken. The politics was one channel would broadcast the interview on the eve of the polls and others will ‘report’ all the time. Journalists became BJP’s propaganda agent. Every day, opinion polls were being conducted, media was organising events and social media platforms like Twitter and Facebook have become the biggest agent of the ruling party, denying spaces to voices of opposition. Links exposing the ruling party never get enough visibility and have been limited in reach.

For a healthy democracy, we need strong Opposition, independent media and autonomous institutions. Unfortunately, all this is under heavy assault by the ruling party. BJP has created ‘history’ as officers from civil services are asked to resign and join the party and given tickets. How can anyone trust that the bureaucracy is doing its work independently when it becomes a party. As the thin line between institutions and ruling party disappear, it will ultimately ruin democracy which a country like India cannot afford. It is time political parties start thinking on electoral system change. India must move away from First Past the Post System towards proportional electoral system. Look at the examples to reflect the crisis that we face. RLD with 2% vote share got 8 seats in Uttar Pradesh while Congress with the same got 2 seats. BSP with 12% vote share got 1 seat. BJP got 41.3% vote share got 255 seats, SP got 32% but got 111 seats. If vote percentage reflect the seat won then BJP would have got only 165 seats and SP would have got 128.

First Past The Post (FPTP) System makes a large number of votes virtually invalid. If voting percentage has anything to do, then with 41% votes in Uttar Pradesh, BJP is in power. Its allies got nearly 6.5% votes. It means more than 54% people still voted against NDA but then in this system those votes don’t matter. Political parties will have to think on this anomaly. It is not that this has been ‘invented’ by BJP as all the political parties who come to power use this mechanism to consolidate and strengthen them. BSP came from a movement which speak of proportionality on everything, DMK too was born out of this movement for fair representation. It is time, we need serious discussion on electoral reforms as well as autonomy of our institutions. If the political leadership is not ready to protect their autonomy, will the top court of the country step in and issue directions in this regard in the greater interest of Democracy. If we do not wake up, we will be moving towards one party democracy in the country. Election Commission is saying that it is ready to organise one election for all assemblies and Lok Sabha. It is risky and will not succeed but the idea is being toyed by the ruling party with an agenda to rule from Panchayats to parliament and obliterate the opposition or make it irrelevant. Even a thought about such a situation is scary and hence all the opposition parties must stand together and prepare for 2024 by building a bigger alliance and start preparation now. Important for political parties to strengthen civil society movement as well as autonomous media institutions so that people’s voices survive and protect democracy. 

*Views expressed are the author’s own.

Related:

Uttar Pradesh: Ex MLA holds post-defeat meeting with supporters, threatens opponents 

Even in a BJP ‘wave’, UP voters blew out many flames of hate

Case registered against Saiyada Khatoon, newly elected MLA of Domariyaganj

The post Crisis of Democracy: Lessons from UP elections appeared first on SabrangIndia.

A day after the political drubbing in Uttar Pradesh, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati openly blamed Muslims for her party’s loss. The BSP managed to win just one seat, and Mayawati blamed social media, the news media and Samajwadi Party (SP) for her party’s loss accusing them of “misleading” the non-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) voter that BSP was BJP’s “B team”.

“Muslims had committed a big mistake by voting en masse for Samajwadi Party,” she said addressing the media on the morning after counting day. This has been perhaps the worst electoral result for the BSP which had formed a majority government in Uttar Pradesh in 2007. This time, though the BSP had a vote share of 12.88 percent, it only translated into one seat. 

Former Chief Minister Mayawati said, “The casteist media, nasty scheming, constant negative campaigning to mislead Muslims and anti-BJP Hindus have been successful to a large extent. They created a perception that the BSP is a B-team of the BJP and is not fighting against it as vigorously as SP is. The truth is entirely the opposite.”

According to Mayawati the media and social media do not want the backward / repressed classes to have the master key [to suppress/progress] in their hands, and they “stooped as low as possible to play their dirty and disgusting games.” This ‘media campaign’ she alleged “led the Muslim community to vote for SP en masse” and that in turn confused “anti-BJP Hindus” who also did not support BSP on voting day.

“If they had not been misled then this would not have been the result,” she said, warning that “these people will suffer and regret [their decision] after some time.” Here her indication is to Muslims, and Hindus who did not vote for BSP, rather voted for SP. “They forget that only BSP can stop BJP from reuring to power, not SP. The Muslims were with BSP, but their entire vote shifted to SP,” she said.

Mayawati asserted that the BSP’s fight against BJP was not just political but “ideological” and that BJP’s aggressive anti-Muslim election campaign made the Muslim community vote for SP. 

“If the Muslim vote had joined with Dalits, like it did in Bengal, the same results of toppling the BJP would have been repeated here,” said Mayawati.

Her speech after the poll loss was to assuage the party workers but may have had an adverse impact with its anti-Muslim tone. There seems to be an attempt to pin the blame as it were, and put the onus on Muslims for the results. However, Muslim candidates have in fact defeated BJP candidates in various constituencies. An example is SP’s Saiyada Khatoon who defeated Raghvendra Pratap Singh, the communal venom spewing BJP MLA, indicating how the electorate did not support hate or discrimination.

The BJP has retained power in Uttar Pradesh by winning 255 out of 403 constituencies, securing a 41.29 percent vote share. This was a drop of 49 seats from the party’s tally in 2017. This is the first time in 37 years that a party has been able to retain power in Uttar Pradesh after completing a full term. The last time this happened was back in the days of Govind Vallabh Pant!

Mayawati also asked party workers to not lose hope and continue with “the struggle to carve out a way in difficult situations throughout their lives”. 

“UP election results are opposed to BSP’s expectations. We should not be discouraged by it. Instead, we should learn from it, introspect and carry forward our party movement, and come back to power,” she said, citing the examples of BJP and Congress who had rebuilt their respective parties after poll defeats in the past in Uttar Pradesh. “Even in UP, the BJP wasn’t very strong before 2017,” she said.

The state was ruled by the Samajwadi Party and BSP separately till 2017. Mayawati added that Congress is going through a similar slump, and said, “UP election result is a lesson for us to continue putting in efforts.”

11-03-2022-BSP PRESS NOTE-UP POLL RESULT pic.twitter.com/ed923W8OlC

— Mayawati (@Mayawati) March 11, 2022

In contrast was Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav who said he “was grateful” to the voters of the state for a two-and-a-half fold increase in SP’s seat tally and a one-and-a-half fold surge in their vote share. “We have shown that the BJP’s seat count can be decreased. This decline would continue. More than half of falsehoods have been wiped out, the rest will follow. The struggle in public interest would continue,” he said in his first public comment after the results were declared.

उप्र की जनता को हमारी सीटें ढाई गुनी व मत प्रतिशत डेढ़ गुना बढ़ाने के लिए हार्दिक धन्यवाद!

हमने दिखा दिया है कि भाजपा की सीटों को घटाया जा सकता है। भाजपा का ये घटाव निरंतर जारी रहेगा।आधे से ज़्यादा भ्रम और छलावा दूर हो गया है बाकी कुछ दिनों में हो जाएगा।

जनहित का संघर्ष जीतेगा!

— Akhilesh Yadav (@yadavakhilesh) March 11, 2022

सपा-गठबंधन के जीते हुए सभी विधायकों को हार्दिक बधाई! सभी नये विधायक जनता की सेवा व सहायता करने की ज़िम्मेदारी शत-प्रतिशत निभाएं!

उस हर एक छात्र, बेरोज़गार युवा, शिक्षक, शिक्षामित्र, महिला, पुरानी पेंशन के समर्थक, किसान, मज़दूर और प्रोफेशनल को धन्यवाद जिसने हममें विश्वास जताया।

— Akhilesh Yadav (@yadavakhilesh) March 11, 2022

Related:

UP Assembly Elections: What does the break-up of Vote Share tell us?

Hate Offender Keshav Prasad Maurya emerges as one of the biggest losers in 

UP Assembly Elections: Serial hate offender Raghvendra Pratap Singh gets the boot in 

The post Why is Mayawati blaming Muslims and media for BSP’s electoral debacle in UP? appeared first on SabrangIndia.

In a shocking display of impunity, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) members allegedly assaulted and threatened Diljot Singh, one of the witnesses of the Lakhimpur Kheri killings where a few protesting farmers and a journalist were mowed down by a vehicle owned by the son of a powerful BJP minister. Diljot Singh was assaulted on the intervening night between March 10 and March 11, 2022, when 10 men allegedly belonging to the BJP allegedly beat him up with belts and tore off his clothes after distracting the security guard deployed to protect Singh.

On October 3, 2021, Lakhimpur Kheri farmers peacefully protesting in Tikonia village were allegedly mowed down by a vehicle carrying Union Minister Ajay Mishra’s son Ashish. Four farmers and a local journalist were killed in the incident that sparked outrage among the farming community. Leaders demanded the immediate sacking of Union Minister Ajay Mishra. While the investigation continues, witnesses like Singh were granted security.

However, this security proved to be ineffective on Thursday night, when around 10 BJP goons distracted gunman Manoj, and attacked the sugarcane farmer with belts. According to the FIR complaint, accused Ashok, Ramu, Munnalal, Anil Trivedi, Pavan and five to six others dealt severe injuries to Singh’s head and tore his clothes.

 

 

 

 

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A post shared by Adv Vasu Kukreja (@adv.vasu_kukreja)

Singh was transporting his produce to Belraya factory around 8 PM when a crowd gathered around his tractor, compelling gun-man constable Manoj to dispel the crowd. The accused used this chance to attack Singh, said the report.

“They [the accused] said that they will kill all witnesses. After the BJP’s victory, they will deal with all of us. They said that now that Monu bhaiya [Ashish Mishra] is out of jail, he will teach us all a lesson,” said Singh in his complaint.

Final results of the Lakhimpur constituency showed that BJP candidate Yogesh Verma won the seat with a margin of 20,578 votes. However, the voter turnout in the area was only 67.79 percent – relatively less than other farmer-dominated regions.

Following Mishra’s release on February 12, survivors of the attack told SabrangIndia that they feared for their safety. They questioned the rationale behind allowing a person who allegedly murdered so many people, to be released on bail within four months. It may be noted that the bail was granted amidst Assembly Elections in the state. Moreover, the Special Investigation team (SIT) that looked into the matter said in its report that the whole incident was a planned conspiracy.

Farmers umbrella body Sanyukta Kisan Morcha’s (SKM) legal cell member Vasu Kukreja said he worried that such incidents will now gradually increase and witness security will be compensated. “Even here, the police registered an FIR only after pressure from the people, even though the accused are known people. Singh is safe now, but such cases will now surely increase,” he said.

On the day of Mishra’s bail, the SKM lamented the court-decision, pointing out that the politically powerful accused is very likely to influence the witnesses. During the Mission UP campaign, the SKM demanded the immediate removal of Mishra from the Union Cabinet to ensure a fair trial against the accused.

Related:

Farmers fail to deliver “Vote ki chot” to BJP in UP

UP elections: ECI data indicates enthusiastic voter turnout in the farming community

Lakhimpur Kheri case: Farmers remain enraged by Mishra’s bail

Western UP: Are Jat farmers losing faith in the BJP?

The post UP Assembly Elections: Lakhimpur Kheri witness allegedly attacked by BJP goons celebrating victory appeared first on SabrangIndia.

“The people are winning, goondaism is losing,” the now former Deputy Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, Keshav Prasad Maurya had posted around the time when the counting of votes began. In an ironic twist, his post proved to be prophetic when Maurya, a serial hate offender who had contested from Sirathu, was trounced by Dr Pallavi Patel of Apna Dal (Kamerawadi).

Sirathu is a constituency in the Kaushambi district, which the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was hopeful that Maurya will retain. But a canny alliance between Apna Dal (K) and the Samajwadi Party, shot down his divisive agenda.  

सिराथू विधानसभा क्षेत्र की जनता के फ़ैसले को विनम्रतापूर्वक स्वीकार करता हूँ,एक एक कार्यकर्ता के परिश्रम के लिए आभारी हूँ,जिन मतदाताओं ने वोट रूपी आशीर्वाद दिया उनके प्रति कृतज्ञता ज्ञापित करता हूँ,

— Keshav Prasad Maurya (@kpmaurya1) March 10, 2022

जनता जीत रही है गुंडागर्दी हार रही है

— Keshav Prasad Maurya (@kpmaurya1) March 10, 2022

However, Maurya’s attitude as a politician is unlikely to fade from public memory. In January this year, Keshav Prasad Maurya had walked out of a BBC interview and lashed out at the senior journalist, Anant Zanane, even pulling his Covid mask off. This was Maurya’s response when he questioned the BJP leadership’s complete silence over Haridwar dharma sansad’s hate speeches. Maurya went a step ahead and defended the right of expression of the Hindutva leaders. The BBC sent an official complaint to the National President of the BJP, the State President of the BJP and the Chief Minister of UP about the incident, but no action was taken against Maurya.

Keshav Prasad Maurya is also known for his anti-Muslim speeches, and in the recent past has called Muslims “lungi chaap, jaalidaar topi goondas” and during one of his election campaign public meetings, said that before the 2017 Assembly elections, “They were roaming the streets with revolvers in their hands and threatening businessmen.” He asked the crowds to tell him who these “goondas” were, and the BJP supporters replied “lungiwale”. 

Maurya had also announced that “preparations were underway for the construction of a grand temple in Mathura” along the lines of what was being done in Ayodhya and Varanasi. He said, “A grand temple is being constructed in Ayodhya and Kashi, preparations are on for Mathura next.” Mathura in western UP is revered as the birthplace of Hindu deity Krishna. It is also home to the Shahi Idgah, which is next to the Krishna janmabhoomi (the place where the deity is believed to have been born). 

The religion based campaign however, did not translate into a win for Maurya. He has of course accepted his defeat now, and it is yet to be seen what his political gurus have planned for him.

Related:

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Apps auctioning women fuelled by a TRADition of Hate

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Citizens compare Dharma Sansad to Nazi Germany

The post Hate Offender Keshav Prasad Maurya emerges as one of the biggest losers in UP Assembly elections  appeared first on SabrangIndia.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears to be all set to retain power in Uttar Pradesh, and even though official victory figures are not out yet, as per data available at 3 P.M, the party was leading in 243 seats and had secured 2 victories. Its closest competitor, the Samajwadi Party (SP) was leading in 121 seats. BUt the real story lies in the vote share. For the purposes of this piece, we are using data published at 3 P.M by the Election Commission of India’s official website.

Then (2017) and now (2022)

If we take a look at the vote share at this point, the BJP has the largest at 42.01 percent, followed by the SP with 31.77 percent. It is also noteworthy that Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) still has over 12 percent of the vote share in the state, despite leads in only 1 seat! This shows that the party still has loyal voters, but they are scattered across different constituencies.

Now, let us take a quick look at what the vote share looked like in 2017, when Adityanath first came to power. Back then, the BJP had contested 384 seats and won 312. This time there appears to be a marked drop in the number of seats based on information on leads available so far. The SP that was decimated in 2017 and reduced to a measly 47, has certainly improved its tally significantly. The BSP had won 19 seats in 2017, so the drop so far is not that large. Also, irrespective of how much political pundits might want to write her off, Mayawati will not go gently into the night.

Is the INC still politically relevant?

It is noteworthy though that the Indian National Congress (INC) has become almost irrelevant in UP politics. In 2017, the INC contested 114 seats and won 7, and its vote share stood at 6.25 percent. This time, as per data available at 3 P.M, their vote share has dropped to just over 2 percent! This is odd considering the party addressed over 200 rallies and public meetings.

Some blame it on their absence during the period other than election season. In fact, this is exactly what helped the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Punjab. They were interacting with the electorate and gauging its pulse for at least two years before the actual elections. This allowed them to not only build rapport, but also showcase themselves as a party that was actually interested in improving the lives of people, and not just aiming to get votes.

In fact, the INC let go of so many opportunities to engage in rights advocacy in UP during the multitude of tragedies that hit the state – from the mismanagement during Covid, to growing instances of communalism, caste-based killings and even seething rage among farmers due to the agricultural laws. The electorate can see through sporadic token protests and press conferences. The party’s negligible vote share is therefore an indicator of how the people chose to punish it. It has been wiped out in traditional bastions like Amethi and Rae Bareli, and summarily trounced to single digits almost everywhere!

Vote share and victory: Flaws in strategy

Electoral victory is a product of complex factors, and not just vote share. Even though political pundits refer to votes based on castes and communities, it is important to never treat a community’s votes as a monolith, different people have different aspirations and priorities.

However, even if one were to presume that people from a particular community or caste will vote overwhelmingly for one party, it is possible that their votes in their respective constituencies will still be a smaller percentage of the total number of votes cast in that constituency. This is why gerrymandering, or drawing of constituency boundaries to always ensure one voter group always has a majority, is such a touchy subject.

Another element that should not be ignored is how vote consolidation helps certain parties triumph over their opponents, as the votes of those opposed to the party’s policies or ideologies simply get divided among the various other parties who are opposed to said party.

Intelligent pre-poll alliances can help like-minded parties hold on to their vote banks and not confuse or divide voters. But that is not what happened in UP.

Surprise leads and shocking losses

There were also some surprises where the BJP was leading in constituencies where it wasn’t expected to perform this well. For example, it cornered over 49 percent of the vote share to lead in Kasganj, and over 58 percent of the vote share in Hathras. Both these places had been in the news – Kasganj for not only communal conflict, but also the mysterious custodial death of a Muslim man, and Hathras for the rape and death of a young Dalit woman.

Another shocker was how BJP’s Pankaj Gupta cornered over 52 percent of the vote in Unnao, a constituency associated the most with BJP’s shame given how Kuldeep Singh Sengar, was a BJP MLA from this region before he was convicted for the rape of a teenage girl in 2018. In fact, Asha Singh, the mother of the rape survivor had contested elections from Unnao on an INC ticket this time, but she managed to get just over 800 votes!

BJP was also leading in Robertsganj, home to a thriving community of Adivasis who have been using legal means to struggle peacefully for their rights to forest land and produce, and who have faced institutional violence due to the same. BJP’s Bhupesh Chaubey had cornered over 41 percent of the vote here, with SP’s Awinash Kushwaha trailing close behind with just over 35 percent. In Duddhi, another constituency with a substantial Adivasi population, BJP’s Ramdular again cornered over 41 percent of the vote share, though SP’s Vijay Singh wasn’t trailing far behind with 38 percent of the vote share.

Hapur, that had been associated with mob lynchings also saw BJP’s Vijaypal leading with over 46 percent of the vote share. In Muzaffarnagar, an area that was the cite of communal violence in 2013, though the Rashtriya Lok Dal’s (RLD) Saurabh was in the lead with 49 percent of the vote share, at the time of going to press, BJP’s Kapil Dev Agarwal was biting close at his heels with 43.94 percent.

Meanwhile BJP’s Brijesh leads in Deoband, the seat of the Darul Uloom, with 38.77 percent, with SP’s Kartikeya Rana close at his heels with 35.83 percent. It is important to note that Deoband’s Nagar Palika (municipality) is dominated by Muslims, and sub-district by Hindus. The story is more complex though, and it appears the failure of the SP and BSP to come to a mutual agreement has cost them both this important seat. BSP’s Chaudhary Rajendra Singh has cornered 21.77 percent of the vote. A pre-poll SP-BSP alliance, like the one forged in the run up to the 2019 general elections, could have helped consolidate the vote for them.

Brijesh is clearly having the last laugh. In 2017, he had told Economic Times, “Deoband has been a land of Hindus much before Darul Uloom came into being. During the era of Mahabharata, it was called Dev Vrand, the land where the five Pandavs worshipped. After Darul Uloom was set up, the name was changed to Deoband.” The BJP’s electoral mathematic in this mammoth north Indian state has had a significant impact on the Muslim community, leading to their invisibilisation, a marked absence in representation.

Similar trends were visible at the end of the tenth round of counting in UP’s Shahganj district as well.

Related:

Manipur Assembly Elections: BJP leads in a third of the constituencies

A sweeping lead in Punjab is a dream coming true for AAP

The post UP Assembly Elections: What does the break-up of Vote Share tell us? appeared first on SabrangIndia.

On the eve of counting of votes in Assembly election, Uttar Pradesh witnessed a major churn in the lineup of Electoral Officers when the Election Commission announced that the Delhi Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) has been deputed as special officer in Meerut, and the Bihar CEO will be the counting incharge in Varanasi, stated news reports. There have also been overnight removals of nodal officers for controversies surrounding EVMs in Varanasi district. A returning officer in Sonbhadra and an additional election officer in Bareilly were also removed.

These officers were removed from poll duty in Uttar Pradesh, by the Election Commission a day after the Samajwadi Party (SP) alleged major protocol violations concerning the movement of electronic voting machines just ahead of counting. The officers who have been removed from election duty have been identified as:

• Nalini Kant Singh, who was the Varanasi Additional District Magistrate (ADM) and was accused of moving EVMs on Tuesday without informing political parties,
• Ramesh Kumar, who is the Returning Officer in Sonbhadra district,
• VK Singh who was the Additional Election Officer in Bareilly district, and who was in hot water after ballot boxes and other poll-related items were found in a garbage bin in Baheri area of Bareilly

Varanasi is the parliamentary constituency of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has given it special attention, and visits before and during this Assembly election.

According to news reports, a delegation led by Samajwadi Party state president Naresh Uttam Patel also reached the state election commission office late on Tuesday night. Patel told mediapersons that they have given a memorandum about the Azamgarh incident and asked the Election Commission to conduct “fair counting of votes and not let India’s democracy be tarnished.” The party has also written to the Chief Election Commissioner, Election Commission of India (ECI) asking that the counting of votes be web-casting and the link be made available to political parties.

समाजवादी पार्टी के प्रदेश अध्यक्ष श्री नरेश उत्तम पटेल ने मुख्य चुनाव आयुक्त भारत निर्वाचन आयोग नई दिल्ली को पत्र लिखकर मतगणना की वेब कांस्टिग कराये जाने तथा वेब कांस्टिग का ‘लिंक‘ राजनैतिक दलों को उपलब्ध कराये जाने की मांग की है।https://t.co/lG316xfZoO

— Samajwadi Party (@samajwadiparty) March 9, 2022

A day earlier the SP president, Akhilesh Yadav had made serious allegations against the Uttar Pradesh government, accusing it of ‘stealing’ Electronic Voting Machines (EVM), ahead of March10, when the counting of votes cast in the Assembly polls is due to take place. Scores of videos have been shared since March 8 evening showing a truck reportedly loaded with EVMs being caught in Varanasi. 

On Wednesday morning, the party tweeted a video of an Election Commission official admitting to “lapses” in moving electronic voting machines. The order for the removal of Varanasi Additional District Magistrate NK Singh stated that he had moved EVMs in the district without informing poll officials and political parties. It said,“His dereliction caused a lot of confusion among candidates in Varanasi, and the reputation of the administration was affected due to this.” Additional Collector Sanjay Kumar is now the nodal officer for EVMs.

Whereas VK Singh was removed after ballot boxes and other poll-related items were found in a garbage bin in Baheri area of Bareilly, according to news reports. Moreover, “Election Commission acted against Kumar as ballot papers were found from a box in his vehicle.”

Samajwadi Party has regularly updated on its twitter handle its alleggations of  various lapses in protocol, ahead of counting, asking “at whose behest is this happening? Are the officers being pressured from the CM office?”

आज़मगढ़ में वाराणसी नम्बर की स्कार्पियो गाड़ी से 10000 सादा बैलेट पेपर पकड़ा गया।

लाइट बन्द कर स्ट्रॉंग रूम के अंदर जा रही गाड़ी को गेट पर मुस्तैद सपा कार्यकर्ताओं ने दबोचा।

किसके इशारे पर बैलेट ले जाया जा रहा था? क्या मकसद था? चुनाव आयोग कृपया स्पष्ट करे @ECISVEEP @ceoup pic.twitter.com/5YtJCfvwKf

— Samajwadi Party (@samajwadiparty) March 9, 2022

मिर्जापुर ईवीएम स्ट्रांग रूम के अंदर से ईवीएम बीप की आवाज आना गंभीर धांधली और षड्यंत्र का पर्दाफाश करता है।

तत्काल स्पष्टीकरण देते हुए कठोरतम कार्रवाई करे चुनाव आयोग। @ceoup @ECISVEEP @DM_MIRZAPUR pic.twitter.com/CHbw57FD1A

— Samajwadi Party (@samajwadiparty) March 9, 2022

After the dramatic discovery of Electronic Voting Machines (EVM) being whisked away, allegedly in a clandestine manner, in Uttar Pradesh on the evening of March 8, questions have been raised about the alleged complicity of the district administration in the exercise.

Opposition parties are not buying the Varanasi District Magistrate Kaushal Raj Sharma’s explanation that the machines were not used in elections, but were instead used for training purposes. Interestingly, even the Election Commission has backed the DM’s claims. But calls for the DM’s transfer have been growing, as Opposition parties feel the process of vote counting could get compromised if authorities are unable to remain impartial due to their alleged proximity to the ruling regime.  

Related:

Opposition parties demand transfer of Varanasi DM

EVM security: Whose responsibility is it anyway?

UP Assembly Elections: Webcam company official found dead

Assembly Election Exit Polls: Will media pundits be proved wrong again?

Assembly Elections: Large turnout among women voters

Assembly polls: 40,395 model code of conduct violations lodged with EC 

The post EC suspends 3 in UP, puts Delhi, Bihar officials in charge on Counting Day appeared first on SabrangIndia.

The allegations surrounding polling malpractices refuse to die down. Even as the controversy surrounding the Electronic Voting Machines (EVM) is still fresh, new accusations are being made that there was a sudden spike in the number of votes cast in the last hour of voting in Varanasi.

To understand the difference in numbers, let us take a closer look at polling numbers released by the Uttar Pradesh State Election Commission at 5 P.M on the day of polling for each phase on Twitter as well as the final figures as per the Election Commission of India’s Voter Turnout App.

*Source: Official Twitter handle of CEO, UP, and ECI’s Voter Turnout App

It is clear from the figures above, that in each phase there has been an increase in the turnout percentage in the last hour by approximately 3-5 percent. The lowest increase was in Phase 6 (only 3.12 percent), and the highest was in Phase 4 (5.31 percent). Going by this, the increase in the voter turnout percentage in Phase 7 stands at 4.70 percent, which is less than that in Phase 4.

District-wise voter turnout in Phase 7

Now let us take a closer look at district-wise changes in the voter turnout in Phase 7, where polling took place in 54 Assembly seats spread across nine districts: Azamgarh, Bhadohi, Chandauli, Ghazipur, Jaunpur, Mau, Mirzapur, Sonebhadra and Varanasi. As mentioned earlier, the Approximate Voter Turnout Trend as per the ECI’s Voter Turnout App stood at 58.88 percent overall. Here are the district-wise figures as per the Voter Turnout App:

Azamgarh 57.49

Bhadohi 57.43

Chandauli 62.77

Ghazipur 59.13

Jaunpur 57.18

Mau 57.79

Mirzapur 60.34

Sonebhadra 59.05

Varanasi 60.58

This is where one can see a marked difference, because the figures released at 5 PM were much lower for one district – Varanasi.

https://twitter.com/ceoup/status/1500816842859814912

Let us look at the figures, side by side.

Clearly the voter turnout in the last hour of polling was highest in Varanasi in the second phase, followed closely by Ghazipur. But what does this mean?

While there are widespread allegations of bogus voting, there might be another explanation for this – the anti-incumbency factor. Typically, a high voter turnout indicates that voters want a change, which drives them to the polling booth in large numbers.

It is also possible that people wanted to finish their other commitments and priorities such as domestic responsibilities, professional work etc. before going out to vote. Even if polling day is a holiday, self-employed people and daily wage earners often don’t have the luxury to skip work as the income loss of even one day can severely impact their finances.

Therefore, while it is important to remain vigilant, it is also important to take all possible explanations into consideration before jumping to conclusions. Polling is over, and counting begins at 8 A.M on March 10, 2022. The people have spoken. Now, let us find out what they have said.

Related:

Assembly Election Exit Polls: Will media pundits be proved wrong again?

Opposition parties demand transfer of Varanasi DM

EVM security: Whose responsibility is it anyway?

The post A closer look at Varanasi’s Golden Hour Voter Turnout appeared first on SabrangIndia.

If we are to believe most mainstream exit polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is going to win the Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections. While some say it will be a landslide victory, others predict a more conservative margin of victory. But there are two polls that say that it is the Samajwadi Party (SP) that will form the next government in UP. These are the Deshbandhu Poll and the Atma Sakshi Poll.

As we have reported earlier, according to the Deshbandhu Exit Poll the BJP will fold under 150 seats! This is a shocker, given how the UP Assembly has a total of 403 seats and the halfway mark is 202. But according to this poll, the BJP will only get 134-150 seats, while it is the SP that will come to power with as many as 228-244 seats. This not only makes the SP the single largest party, but also comfortably takes them well past the halfway mark. Deshbandhu also gives the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) 10-24 seats, and the Indian National Congress (INC) 1-9 seats.

Then there is the Atma Sakshi poll that has been reported widely in the South Indian news media like T9 Telugu news channel and Sakshi TV, but whose predictions are completely missing from English and Hindi language news media. According to this poll, the SP could win 235-240 seats, while the BJP would only get 138-140 seats. It gives the BSP 19-23 seats, INC 12-16 and other 1-2 seats. This poll also shows a very interesting vote share for each party. While it predicts that SP will bag 39 percent of the votes, it says BJP could get 32.5 percent, BSP 14 percent and INC 10 percent, leaving 4 percent for others.

Even the Ground Report Research, that India TV partnered with, does not give clear victory to the BJP in many seats, though its overall prediction is that the BJP will win with a narrow margin. A closer look at the seat-wise predictions shows that the SP has a clear shot at victory in 105 seats, while the BJP has a clear shot of victory in only 109 seats. The SP and the BJP are locked in a close battle in 103 seats!

Mayawati’s BSP has a clear shot in four seats: Rampur Maniharan (Saharanpur, Western UP), Sandila (Hardoi, Awadh), Chail (Kaushambi, Purvanchal), and Rasar (Ballia, Purvanchal).

There are also going to be closely contested three corner fights such as:

SP-BSP-BJP in Garhmukteshwar (Hapur, Western UP), Gopamau (Hardoi, Awadh), Isauli (Sultanpur, Awadh), and Sikandra (Kanpur Dehat, Awadh).

INC-BJP-BSP in Bilgram-Mallanwan (Hardoi, Awadh),

INC-BJP-SP in Sareni (Rae Bareli, Awadh)

Nishad is also set to give the SP tough competition in Sadar (Sultanpur, Awadh) and Majahawan (Mirzapur, Purvanchal). It will also be in a three-corner contest with SP and BSP in Kalpi (Jalaun, Bundelkhand) and Alapur (Ambedkar Nagar, Awadh).

Related:

Assembly Election Exit Polls: Will media pundits be proved wrong again?

The post Two Assembly Election Exit Polls paint dire picture for BJP appeared first on SabrangIndia.

Amidst allegations of stolen Electronic Voting Machines (EVM) in Uttar Pradesh, the shocking death of a woman working in the webcam company responsible for polling booths had added further fuel to the conspiracy fires. Her body was found inside her hotel room in Azamgarh and police say that the woman died by suicide.

The woman’s sister Sangeeta discovered her body on March 7, after breaking into the room. The two women had come to the area for webcasting work during elections. Speaking to both local media and the police, she said the deceased was suffering from a clinical disorder.

Accordingly, the police said that the woman died by suicide, with the post mortem report stating asphyxiation as the cause of death.

“I personally looked at the CCTV footage in the hotel room and saw that nobody entered the woman’s room after the last time she did. We did not find any sinister elements in this incident,” Azamgarh SHO D K Srivastav told SabrangIndia. When asked about the death’s possible connection to the EVM scam, the police refused to comment on “politically-motivated accusations”.

Nonetheless, the news drew severe criticism from people about the Election Commission of India’s (ECI) handling of the polling process.

If something is not seriously wrong wth the @ECISVEEP is handling the UP/Varanasi/Purvanchal/Azamgarh polls, this shd raise serious ques. A woman worker of a webcam cos resp for election booths (Azamgarh) found dead in a hotel room. #ECI #UPElections2022https://t.co/t7b5ynyZbr

— Teesta Setalvad (@TeestaSetalvad) March 9, 2022

Before the cause of death was revealed via the post mortem report on Tuesday evening, the Samajwadi Party (SP) called the death ‘an indicator of a larger conspiracy’ and called for a thorough investigation by the police.

pic.twitter.com/c3GaaY9LEl

— AZAMGARH POLICE (@azamgarhpolice) March 8, 2022

This alludes to SP leader Akhilesh Yadav’s speech on the intervening night between March 8 and March 9 accusing the state government of ‘stealing’ Electronic Voting Machines (EVM), ahead of counting on March 10. Viral videos on social media show how people in Varanasi caught a truck carrying EVMs in gunny bags. According to reports, the truck was caught but two other similar trucks allegedly escaped. The ECI and DM claimed that the EVMs were being taken to a training venue where election officials were to be trained a day before counting day.

Meanwhile, officials are mum about the death of the webcam company woman, whose death is being connected to the EVM scam. During the press conference, Yadav asked party workers to keep a constant vigil on the places where EVMs are kept.

Related:

EVM security: Whose responsibility is it anyway?

Assembly Election Exit Polls: Will media pundits be proved wrong again?

Assembly Elections: Large turnout among women voters

Assembly polls: 40,395 model code of conduct violations lodged with EC 

The post UP Assembly Elections: Webcam company official found dead appeared first on SabrangIndia.