In response to the growing concerns about the integrity of India’s 2024 General Election (GE), the IPMIE constituted an independent panel to monitor and observe the General Election 2024.

IPMIE stated in its statement that we set out to monitor all aspects of the election process, with the goal of ensuring transparency and fairness. During the GE period, IPMIE published weekly bulletins and three in-depth reports documenting violations of electoral integrity.

IPMIE stated that during the election, we observed and highlighted several violations of electoral integrity with the Election Commission of India (ECI). In our final briefing paper i.e. “Electoral Integrity in India an Agenda for Change: Learnings from the 2024 General Election”, we reflect on those violations, namely;

”1. Electoral procedure and alleged infractions in vote counting. The absence of adequate cross-verification between EVMs and VVPATs – the insistence on non-counting of VVPATs by design – may have facilitated large-scale, spurious injections of votes during each of the seven phases of voting. After analysing discrepancies between provisional and final vote tallies released by the ECI, experts alleged that elections may have been ‘stolen’ in as many as 79 parliamentary constituencies. Several reported instances from across the country of bogus voting and other voting day infractions, as well as widespread complaints of manipulation and other malpractices by ECI officials lent credence to these concerns.

2. Voting registration and allegations of voter exclusion and suppression: State-led voter suppression measures were reported from Gujarat (where hundreds of Muslim fishermen were reportedly struck off from voter rolls), Uttar Pradesh (where dozens of voters in Muslim- concentration villages were reportedly physically assaulted and restrained from voting by policemen), Jammu & Kashmir (where policemen detained party workers and activists unlawfully) and Assam, where around 100,000 residents had in the past been designated as ‘doubtful voters’ by the ECI.

3. Party financing and abuse of state agencies to deny level playing field: Data relating to electoral bonds appeared to confirm the BJP’s near-monopoly over political financing. There was also evidence to suggest that the BJP may have been involved in quid pro quo relationships with corporate donors, many of whom had secured lucrative government contracts, subsidies, and other forms of government support. Ahead of and during the GE period, central government agencies were systematically mobilised to target key parties and leaders of the INDIA bloc of opposition parties.

4. Sectarian rhetoric and media coverage: Throughout the election period, the BJP, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, engaged in sectarian rhetoric on a hitherto unprecedented scale. At least 287 instances of hate speeches (including 61 by Modi) have been documented. The BJP’s core narrative demonised Muslims (who were referred to as ‘infiltrators’ and ‘jihadis’, among other dehumanising terms). Television broadcast networks continued to be highly partisan in favour of the BJP, and ‘shadow advertisers’ pushing a coordinated disinformation campaign on social media networks, seemingly on behalf of the BJP.

5. Electoral authority: The ECI appeared largely to act like an arm of the government, refusing to take decisive action against violations of the Model Code of Conduct (MCC) and of electoral laws by ruling party members. The ECI’s conduct throughout the election process reflected a systematic abdication of its constitutional obligation to conduct free and fair elections. Efforts by opposition parties, election watch bodies and citizens groups, as well as by us as independent experts, to address the many concerns to ECI, went largely unheeded.

6. Lack of electoral redress: The performance of India’s higher judiciary, particularly the Supreme Court (SC), during the 2024 GE was mixed. While it outlawed electoral bonds in February 2024 and ensured the release of related data, its response to petitions seeking remedies related to various electoral integrity weaknesses – including the new appointments procedure to the ECI, weaknesses in the EVM-VVPAT system, communal campaigning by BJP leaders, and the ECI’s delay in publishing voter turnout data – was inadequate.’

Raising concern over the Lok Sabha Election 2024 and on the basis of recommendations, IPMIE urged Indian Authorities to implement the following recommendations:

“1. Amend electoral laws, including sections of the Constitution, the Representation of the People Act and the Model Code of Conduct to strengthen the independence of the Election Commission of India and empower it, prevent gerrymandering in future delimitation processes, allow judicial review of election-related decisions, ensure the public disclosure of all financial contributions received by political parties, and root out corruption.

2. Strengthen Electoral processes to ensure the voting process is verifiable and transparent, that civil society has a role in revising and updating draft electoral rolls, and that data pertaining to EVMs and the election overall is made available in real-time.

3. Ensure the Election Commission of India is brought under the direct oversight of Parliament, that its appointment procedures are revised to guarantee cross-party inclusion, and that it is granted enhanced powers to proactively regulate political parties and to impose stricter election- time penalties for violations of the MCC.”

However, in February 2024, a group of experts from diverse disciplines, from multinational backgrounds, all with pride and admiration in the promise that India holds for inclusive democracy – constituted the Independent Panel for Monitoring Indian Elections (IPMIE), 2024, to observe and report on General Election 2024, as independent civil society monitors. The members of the Panel are, Prof. Neera Chandhoke, Distinguished Honorary Fellow, Centre for Equity Studies, and retd. Professor, Delhi University, India, Dr. Thomas Daffern, Philosopher and historian; chairman of World Intellectuals Wisdom Forum; Director, International Institute of Peace Studies and Global Philosophy (France and UK); Convenor, Commonwealth Interfaith Network, Mr. Sakhawat Hossain, former Election Commissioner of Bangladesh, Dr. Harish Karnick, former Professor, IIT, Kanpur, India, Dr. Sebastian Morris, former Professor, IIM, Ahmedabad, India and, Prof. Rahul Mukherji, Professor & Chair, Modern Politics of South Asia, South Asia Institute, Heidelberg University, Germany

The Press Statement of IPMIE can be read here:

The Full Report can be read here:

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The post Unmasking the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections: Teesta Setalvad’s Deep Dive appeared first on SabrangIndia.

Stating that Modi strategised his election campaign to deploy hate speech against the minorities, particularly Muslims, and create false sense of fear among the majority Hindus, Human Rights Watch (HRW) reported that Modi “made statements inciting discrimination, hostility, and violence against marginalized groups during his campaign to win his third consecutive term of office.” HRW said that it analysed 173 campaign speeches made by Modi and found that Islamophobic remarks were made in at least 110 speeches. The human rights body observed that the Prime Minister “repeatedly described Muslims as “infiltrators” and claimed Muslims had “more children” than other communities, raising the spectre that Hindus—about 80 percent of the population—will become a minority in India.”  It also mentions the role of other BJP leaders in driving the hate agenda, including Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath, Assam CM Himanta Sarma, and former Minister Anurag Thakur.

The report mentions that “Modi regularly raised fears among Hindus through false claims that their faith, their places of worship, their wealth, their land, and the safety of girls and women in their community would be under threat from Muslims if the opposition parties came to power.”

It quoted Modi’s May 14 speech in Koderma, Jharkhand during which he said, “the idols of our gods are being destroyed” and that “these infiltrators [Muslims] have threatened the security of our sisters and daughters.”  In another of his speech delivered in Dhar, Madhya Pradesh, he said “If Congress has its way, it would say that the first right to live in India belongs to its vote bank [Muslims]. … Congress will give quota even in government contracts on the basis of religion.”

The rights body said the Election Commission of India failed to rein in the leader even after multiple complaints were sent to it against his election speeches which were clearly violative of the election’s code of conduct. HRW stated that “Despite finding that Modi and others had violated the guidelines, the commission only wrote to the office of the BJP president, without naming the prime minister, and asked that the BJP and its “star campaigners” refrain from making speeches along religious or communal lines. These directions did not deter Modi, who continued to make speeches inciting hate throughout the campaign period.” It also said that the country has witnessed a surge in anti-Muslim hate speech in India since the Modi administration first took office in 2014.

The study further notes that under the BJP rule, abuse and violence against Muslims, Christians, and other minorities have been normalised, with increased discriminatory policies promoted against the minorities. Commenting on the issue of demolitions carried by the authorities, often without due process of law, HRW said that these demolitions are often carried out as a “collective punishment” against the Muslim communities following communal clashes or dissent, and has been labelled as “Bulldozer Justice” by the members of the ruling regime.

Pointing out the increase in violence against the minorities by the vigilante groups and right-wing mobs, the rights body emphasises on the interlinkage between hate speech and physical attacks on the members of the marginalised groups. The report maintains that minorities have continued to face attacks since the election campaign period across the country. It stated that during 2014 election campaign Modi repeatedly called for protection of cows and strongly attacked Pink Revolution (meat production targets) touted by the then Congress government. As the BJP assumed the office, it further emphasised on statements promoting cow protection, which led to formation of numerous self-appointed cow-protection vigilante groups, and these organisations in turn drove attacks on minority communities with its virulent campaign against beef-consumption and cow slaughter, HRW noted. The study observed that “Between May 2015 and December 2018, at least 44 people—36 of them Muslims—were killed across 12 states. Over that same period, about 280 people were injured in more than 100 incidents across 20 states. The attacks have continued, with several more killed since then.”

On the increase in violence against Christians, it remarked that “Leaders from the BJP and affiliated Hindu nationalist groups have made statements that led to numerous mob attacks on churches in the last decade. In many cases, pastors have been beaten, prevented from holding religious meetings, and accused under anti-conversion laws, and churches have been vandalized.” In addition, it stated that in the aftermath of protests against farm laws which have since been withdrawn, the “anti-Sikh statements by BJP leaders led to a June 10 attack by two men on a Sikh man, whom they called Khalistani, in Haryana’s Kaithal district.”

The human rights body said that members of Hindu nationalist groups have also targeted the persecuted Rohingya Muslims living in Jammu and Delhi regions of the country. It said that after labelling Rohingya as “terrorists”, the right-wings groups have targeted their homes in arson, and noted that following a fire in Rohingya settlement in Delhi during which some 50 homes were burned in 2018, a BJP leader was reported posting on Twitter, saying “Well done by our heroes … Yes we burnt the houses of Rohingya terrorists.”

The report quoting the Asia Director of HRW said that “The Indian government’s claims of plurality and being the ‘mother of democracy’ ring hollow in the face of its abusive anti-minority actions,” and “The new Modi government needs to reverse its discriminatory policies, act on violence against minorities, and ensure justice for those affected.”

Related:

Complaints filed against PM Modi for promoting religious hatred during his Banswara rally, accusing opposition Congress of working to distribute country’s wealth to Muslims | SabrangIndia

Hate speech escalates in India amidst general assembly election campaigns | CJP

‘Inflammatory, communal’: Modi inciting hate in Jharkhand, poll official told | SabrangIndia

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Citing Data in Parliament in relation to the unstarred question asked by Shive Sena (UBT) MP Priyanka Chaturvedi on the booth capturing complaints received by the Election Commission in the last five year, the number of people arrested, and action taken by ECI with regards to such complaints, Union Law Minister Arjun Ram Meghwal stated that 14 people arrested who were part of the Booth Capturing. Sharing details in a written reply, he said one complaint was received from Arunachal, 2 from Odisha where simultaneous polls to Lok Sabha and assembly were held.

Minister said that that Chief Electoral Officer, Arunachal Pradesh was instructed to take fresh poll and was further instructed to direct the concerned Returning Officer to initiate swift action/investigation in the case. A case has been registered at Khenwwa Police Station, East Kameng District. The case is under investigation. One person is still under judicial custody.

In relation to Bihar, it was cited that all complaints were found false on verification and were disposed off. In Odisha 12 persons were apprehended and served notice under Section 41 of Criminal Procedure Code. However, a re-poll at two polling stations i.e. 26-Kirasiraand and 28-Maheswarpinda under the 85-Kantamal Assembly Constituency had been successfully conducted

Interestingly, in relation to the 875 complaints registered highest in West Bengal, Union Law Minister noted in parliament that no cases were substantiated against those complaints and were disposed of as per the report of the concerned District Electoral Officer, Superintendent of Police/Commissioner of Police.

Vote for Democracy, Maharashtra also in its report highlighted the Parliamentary Constituencies where booth capturing took place but no affirmative action has been taken by the Election Commission of India till date.

The Answer of the Minister can be read here:

Related:

Vote for Democracy (VFD) releases report on the conduct of General Election 2024

Bihar: RJD’s petition booth capturing and rigging at Munger dismissed by SC

Phase 6 Polling: Reports of voting manipulation and sporadic violence continue, AAP claims “slow voting” in Delhi

The post 925 Complaints of Booth capturing in Elections 2024 appeared first on SabrangIndia.

So, I do have a June 4 story that began in 1989 when Rajiv Gandhi lost the election, which I covered as a cub reporter at 21. “Covered” is presumptuous. I was more or less zipping around Trivandrum on a two-wheeler gifted by a friend, reporting “untoward incidents” for Venad Pathrika, the afternoon newspaper I was working for then. Again, it was an election that would turn fateful for the country that sent me to Calcutta.

After the journalism course at the Times School in Daryaganj, I had been shortlisted for The Economic Times in Bangalore but I was reluctant, having contracted typhoid from the southern city during a two-month internship with The Times of India and generally unable to find anything of interest there. The only open slot then was Jaipur Times of India, an edition that faced the somewhat unique and unfortunate threat of “cannibalism”. The Times of India Delhi edition, probably the best newspaper in the country then with a powerhouse of talented journalists, would reach Jaipur by around 10am or before that, and many readers in Jaipur would prefer to wait rather than take the Jaipur edition, which meant the biggest competitor of The Times of India in Jaipur was The Times of India from New Delhi! But that was not a factor for me.

I had been schooled that journalists should pursue journalism, not what circulation managers do. I was willing to go to Jaipur (anything to escape Bangalore) when my classmate who was earmarked for Calcutta Economic Times landed a position in a US university. Calcutta badly wanted a trainee because of the elections of May 1991. Delhi asked for volunteers and my hand went up, possibly because I had never been to Calcutta and our classmate Mohuya’s mother used to tell us such endearing stories about the city while feeding us luchies when we deliberately landed up at her home at Vivek Vihar just before dinner. That’s how I reached Calcutta, lost my way and ended up in Harish Mukherjee Street, instead of the nearby Hazra Road, and found Maharashtra Bhavan instead of Maharashtra Niwas. Which suited me best because I could not have afforded the better Niwas.

One or two days later, Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated. Needless to say, I was devastated and I was scared I would descend to depression with no one to talk to. I think only the collegiate atmosphere at the Calcutta Economic Times saved me. I was also asked if I was “LTTE” once or twice because the term had acquired currency after the assassination and I used to roam around central Calcutta in a lungi after work. The questions were good-natured, meant to impress me with the familiarity of geopolitical coinages. I took it in my stride as ribbing, which it was.

I sometimes wonder which was the toughest election I had been associated with in terms of newspapering. I think my friend and former colleague Harshita will choose the 2004 election when The Telegraph headlined it Power of Finger and illustrated the page with an oversized but real-life inked finger.

My choice will be the Bengal Assembly election of 2001. Both pages had a common link: the genius of Deepayan Chatterjee, our deputy editor. What new thing can you say when the Left Front keeps winning election after election? When I was at my wits’ end, I used to literally “look up” to the six-plus-foot Deepayan. He is almost always kind but when his brain was whirring and you intruded with your rabbit-caught-in-the-headline-look, he would glare at me. Then, always, always, without fail, he would lean forward, take a headline sheet, scrawl something carelessly as if it is the grocery list and pass it on to me. I was speechless, as I often was when Deepayan’s creative gears started shifting, especially when World Cup Soccer finals were over at some unholy hour on some far corner of the earth and we had only a few minutes to release the page.

In 2001, I was speechless because leaping at me from the headline sheet was what I consider the best election headline I had seen in my career. The headline: 1977, 1982, 1987, 1991, 1996, 2001…

The ellipsis was the coup de grace. A hint that the chain will continue, which was not very difficult to predict. Little did we know then that within a decade the Red Fort would crumble?

Personally, the hardest election for me was the 2021 Assembly election. Almost everyone, except our bureau chief Devadeep Purohit, predicted that Modi will make mincemeat of Mamata. I was especially proud of my colleagues because of the exceptional work they produced. We cut down on traditional reportage and focused on what Bengal stands to lose if the zealots came to power.

Our senior journalist Chandrima Bhattacharya wrote on short notice, again the story spotted and amplified by Devadeep, what turned out to be the best report of the election. Chandrima wrote on how Modi called Mamata “Didi O Didi” — an extremely difficult copy to write unless you are personally wounded and affected. The Telegraph gave maximum coverage to the blockbuster song, Nijeder Mawte Nijeder Gaan. I remember that the result day in 2021 was May 2. May 1 was a no-print day and we were working from home.

On April 30, while leaving the newsroom well past 2am, a colleague asked me: “Will we see you again here?” The unstated suggestion was that the BJP would not spare me if the party came to power in Bengal. The BJP did not come to power in 2021. As it turned out, September 29, 2023, was my last day in the newsroom or virtual newsroom as we were working from home. Not many in the desk got to ask me if that was my last day.

Since October 2023, I have travelled widely in Kerala and some parts of India and realised that I have friends I had never met before or even heard of before. I also realised that I am a bad speaker but some people, for some reason, like to inflict on themselves bad speakers like me. Especially students. I even campaigned for a candidate (who lost). But I had no idea what I would do on June 4, the result day. Around mid-May, my friend and Media One channel editor Pramod Raman asked me if I would like to be at their studio for three days till the result day. I reluctantly agreed.

When the exit polls were flashed, I wondered whether I should still go. I was in two minds. Until I received a message from a Muslim friend I had met during one of my travels in Malabar: “Are the exit polls true? I am very afraid.” The message gutted me. I did not know what to say. Eventually, I told him to keep the faith. Then I thought I should go to the studio. On June 3, I was welcomed to the studio with the warmth and the hospitality Malabar is known for. But I could sense the tension in the production rooms. So thick that you could cut it with a knife. The cliché is true. I felt it first-hand. No one told me they were tense and if so, why they were tense. They needn’t have told me. I was standing on Ground Zero of media oppression in India. Media One, run by a Muslim management but which has several journalists and other employees from other faiths too, had been abruptly banned by the Centre, triggering a long and expensive legal battle that the channel won emphatically.

The Supreme Court judgment in the Media One case should be part of the curriculum in all journalism schools. Also, the way Pramod and his team navigated the crisis. Unlike some of the “powerful” media houses, they did not cave in.)

On June 4, I reached the studio around 1.30pm. By then, there was a sea change. It was becoming increasingly clear that the BJP would not get a majority on its own. Ajims, Nishad and Pramod (the untiring journalists who were broadcasting from 5am) were on air. Someone asked me to wait in the editor’s office. Then someone from the production room saw me and waved me over. I think the desk knows where someone from the desk would like to be. I stood in one corner of the newsroom, reluctant to intrude.

I am glad I did not go to the editor’s room straightaway. The mood at the production room, packed mostly with young journalists, was infectious. Someone shouted: “Smriti trailing badly.” A cheer went up. So did a round of applause. Then they began feeding memes based on popular movie scenes. The great actress KPAC Lalitha’s meltdown in a scene was flashed when Smriti Irani’s plight was shown. “I need a headline,” another voice. PT Nasar, a veteran journalist I respect a lot, piped in: “Smritinaasam (The destruction of Smriti, and here a reference to the recollection of Smriti Irani’s tenure as minister and the Amethi conquest of 2019).” The response: “Yay.” I was in shock. It happens when you have an adrenaline rush after a long time. “Am I back in my newsroom?” I asked myself. “Tharoor has closed the gap. He is leading now.” Another cheer, another round of claps. Until a few minutes earlier, Shashi Tharoor was trailing. “Tharoor widening the gap. I need a headline.” “Turbo Tharoor.” Turbo is a full-on Mammootty action flick now running in Kerala movie halls. Unable to sleep, I had seen the movie less than 24 hours earlier on June 3 night. Another meme is on screen.

It is a scene from Bhramayugam, a Mammootty blockbuster in which the character played by the great actor keeps captive a man who seeks shelter in his manor. “You can’t go. I won’t allow you to go,” the most famous voice in Kerala is telling the captive. On the split screen, the image of a loser (I think it was Rajeev Chandrasekhar but I am not sure) appears. The suggestion: Mammootty’s character is telling the losing candidate that he cannot go to Parliament. Then Sabir asked me: “Would you like to come upstairs from where the figures are being updated?” I went up.

What a scene it was! It was one of the most breath-taking sights I have ever seen. The top deck — from where the figures are being fed to the on-screen charts — overlooks the studio floor from where the live telecast is going on. On the floor, the dashing Nishad is on fire. It is the principal duty of Nishad and Ajims to ensure that the coverage does not flag. Both were soft-spoken when I met them the day before.

But in front of the camera, they were tigers on the hunt. Behind me was the electric hubbub of the desk, unable to suppress the excitement as it became clear that Modi will fall short of majority. Ahead and down below on the brightly lit floor, Nishad, Ajims and Pramod were kicking their coverage into high gear and memes were flying thick and fast. That is the magnificent image that will stay with me forever. Later, Pramod and Nasar Sir took me to a nearby shop to have tea. On the way, an almost apologetic Pramod asked me: “Don’t take it otherwise. May I ask you what your headline would have been tomorrow had you run the newsroom? I wanted to ask you live on TV but I did not.”

I am glad Pramod, always reasonable and who insists on hearing the other side before passing judgement, did not ask me that question on air. Because I would not have had an answer. I told Pramod that I need a newsroom to think up a headline. I usually go blank and the reaction around me — even while working from home for months, I used to communicate constantly with as many colleagues as possible, especially Harshita — helped me to pick a headline.

When I told Harshita about this, she also asked me to think about what I would have done. I politely declined to answer. I don’t want to return to that space and place. But I am sure my headline would not have been on Modi (a headline on Modi would definitely have titillated social media but I would have kept it for an inside page). My headline most probably would have been on the people, especially the people of Uttar Pradesh. Just a simple “Thank U”, perhaps? Who knows? “U” opens up a lot of possibilities to work on as subsidiary visual ideas, besides Uttar Pradesh: Uttam Pradesh, U-tubers, Uniters, Unbreakables, U-turners….

Or, a tweak of Lincoln to say THE BETTER ANGELS OF OUR NATION? Or, if I focused on Modi, would I have shrunk the entire Page 1 by 56 per cent in recognition of the deflation of the Big Chest? I don’t know. Now you know why I am too reckless for newsrooms.

That night, I messaged my friend in Malabar who was alarmed by the exit polls: “Sleep well tonight. We are safe.”

The dark clouds have only parted. They still hang heavy over us. Even now, anything can happen. Still, the night of June 4 was one of relief. We needed to breathe. We did. Late that night, I received a message from a friend in Uttar Pradesh. It read: “My kids asked me the reason for my happiness today. I told them that you will realise the value of this day many years later, then you will thank me and countless others who fought against tyranny.” I replied: “Well said, Saheb. And I will tell my grandchildren that I knew you.”

I don’t know if my account makes a story, especially against the backdrop of the sacrifices made by many, including Umar Khalid who is still in jail; the whiplash journalism pursued by Ravish Kumar and Ajit Anjum and several others; the selfless crusade of Teesta Setalvad, Harsh Mander, Roop Rekha Verma and many, many volunteers; the sharp political instincts of Yogendra Yadav and Parakala Prabhakar; and the hope kept alive by Dhruv Rathee. But I do hope my account answers my friends’ questions.

This is my June 4 story.

N.E. Sudheer, the foremost bibliophile I know and a no-nonsense commentator, writes in TrueCopyThink. (Of course, you may say little has changed with Modi and he retains his destructive powers but there is one priceless change. We are no longer afraid, especially no longer afraid to hope and to dream)

HOPE

A pluralistic Opposition, steered by a redoubtable civil society, will certainly preserve “India”. The democracy of Nehru will have sparkling evolutionary progressions

DREAM

All that I am visualising now is Modi falling prey to opportunistic politics and leaving Parliament one day after losing a confidence motion. The sengol must also accompany him. This is the dream of an ordinary citizen who takes pride in the idea of India. Had the popular verdict been otherwise, we would have been afraid even to dream.

(The author is a senior journalist; this is from his social media post)

Related:

The handover at Rae Bareli

The post My June 4 Story: The Day Results to the 2024 Elections came in appeared first on SabrangIndia.

The outgoing home minister (#AmitShah) has been calling up DMs/Collectors. So far he has spoken to 150 of them. This is blatant and brazen intimidation, showing how desperate the BJP is: #JairamRamesh https://t.co/ywYJof6mHW

— National Herald (@NH_India) June 1, 2024

“You cannot spread a rumour and bring everyone under a cloud of suspicion,” the CEC said in response on Monday. Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar on Monday “dared the opposition to share evidence of allegations that returning officers and district magistrates were influenced to vitiate the poll process so the panel could take action against them.” The opposition should also tell the Commission about those trying to influence the poll process before the counting of votes begins, Mr. Kumar said at a press conference. He was flanked by Election Commissioners Gyanesh Kumar and S.S. Sandhu.

The Commission had made preparations to deal with any attempt to influence the poll process but these allegations have come from within the country itself, he said in an apparent dig at the opposition. Taking exception to allegations that district magistrates were being influenced, the CEC said, “Those levelling allegations should say which DM was influenced and we will punish them. They should tell us before the counting process begins.”

Demands by multi-party delegation met

Meanwhile, the ECI had accepted all the demands made by the multi-party delegation that met the panel on Sunday, and asserted that the issues raised by them were part of the election process going on for seven decades.”Some demands were made by a multi-party delegation. We have agreed to all the demands,” Mr. Kumar said, indicating that most of the issues raised by the multi-party delegation were part of election manuals.

“This process has been going on for 70 years… We have instructed every RO/ARO. These are our orders and they are no joke… Everyone has been instructed to follow the handbook/manuals,” Mr. Kumar said. Mr. Kumar admitted that the Election Commission had failed to counter the mischievous narratives spread during the poll process.

Concerns on timing of counting postal ballots

The muddying of waters by executive diktat on counting of postal ballots has raised more suspicions and concerns. Till the 2019 LS elections, according to the Conduct of Elections Manual and its rules and procedures, the counting of postal ballots was taken up first and EVM counting began 30 minutes after that. And all postal ballots had to be counted before the EVM counting could be completed.

Hence, just ahead of the counting of votes in the 18^th Lok Sabha elections on June 4, the INDIA bloc on Sunday asked the Election Commission to issue directions to Returning Officers complete the counting of postal ballots before finalising the EVM counting.

The Opposition’s concern stems from a change in the EC’s guidelines in 2019 for counting of postal ballots. Till the 2019 LS elections, the counting of postal ballots was taken up first and EVM counting began 30 minutes after that. And all postal ballots had to be counted before the EVM counting could be completed.

“Under no circumstances, should the results of all the rounds of the EVM counting be announced before finalising the postal ballot counting,” stated the EC’s Handbook for Counting Agents in February 2019. Now, the postal ballot counting starts 30 minutes before the EVM counting, but does not have to be completed before the EVMs.

However, soon after the 2019 elections, the EC decided to tweak the guidelines as the number of postal ballots had gone up, especially after the introduction of the Electronically Transmitted Postal Ballot System (ETPBS), and the mandatory counting of VVPAT slips of five randomly selected polling stations per Assembly constituency or Assembly segment.

Senior counsel Kapil Sibal explained this issue in an interview that he released on ‘X’ on the afternoon of Saturday, June 1.

My Press Conference today
Full Video link https://t.co/GKgnVxCxXF pic.twitter.com/rZPRxu4ULH

— Kapil Sibal (@KapilSibal) June 1, 2024

In directions to all Chief Electoral Officers on May 18, 2019, the EC withdrew its earlier guideline that the penultimate round of EVM counting should be taken up only after postal ballots counting is complete. Instead, it said, the EVM counting “can go on irrespective of the stage of postal ballot counting”. Once the EVM counting is complete, the VVPAT slips can be counted. It also revised the rule for mandatory re-counting of postal ballots. Earlier, postal ballots were recounted if the margin of victory was less than the total number of postal ballots. Now, the postal ballots that are rejected as invalid during counting would be re-verified if the margin is less than the number of such ballots.

While a total of 22.71 lakh postal ballots were received during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections or 0.37% of the total 60.76 crore valid votes, the number of postal ballots is expected to be higher this time. Apart from service voters like defence forces, who are deployed outside their home states, the EC in October 2019 introduced postal ballots for essential service workers, those above 80 years of age and persons with disabilities. Since then, the age limit has been increased to 85 years for seniors and Covid-19 patients have been included in the list of those eligible for postal ballots.

As the guidelines stand today, as per the 2023 Handbook for Counting Agents, “After 30 minutes of commencement of postal ballot counting, the EVM counting can start and continue irrespective of the stage of postal ballot counting. Once the EVM counting is completed, the VVPAT slip counting can also start.”

With the number of postal ballots expected to increase, the Opposition parties have expressed concern over the counting process. In their letter to the EC, they pointed out that the winning margin in the 2020 Bihar elections was 12,700 votes for the state, while the number of postal ballots was 52,000. “In fact, there was a huge outcry in Bihar as it was the first election (which was conducted after the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic) where the postal ballots were counted at the end of the counting of EVM votes,” the INDIA parties said.

They asked the EC to withdraw the May 2019 letter and to issue directions in consonance with Rule 54A of the Conduct of Elections Rules, 1961, which says “the returning officer shall first deal with the postal ballot papers…”

Not to be left behind, the BJP knocks on EC’s door against “coordinated bid to undermine poll process”

The BJP delegation also sought a “public statement affirming the integrity of the electoral process and warning against any attempts to disrupt the democratic process”.

Not to be outdone, the ruling BJP, under fire from various sections for its imposition on the ECI, also met the ECI on Sunday. Within hours of the INDIA bloc delegation meeting the Election Commission Sunday, the BJP approached the poll panel, complaining about “grave and coordinated attempts by opposition parties, led by the Indian National Congress, and certain motivated civil society groups to undermine the integrity of the ongoing electoral process”.

“These efforts are a direct attack on our democratic institutions and pose significant risks to public order and trust in the electoral system,” the ruling party said.

Submitting a petition, this delegation comprising Union Ministers Nirmala Sitharaman and Piyush Goyal, accompanied by party leader Om Pathak, urged the EC to “take cognizance of the systematic attempts to undermine the electoral process and take stringent action against those responsible”. The delegation also sought a “public statement affirming the integrity of the electoral process and warning against any attempts to disrupt the democratic process”.

“The decisive mandates given by the Indian electorate in the 2014 and 2019 general elections, which brought the BJP under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to power, have been repeatedly challenged by the opposition through baseless allegations and actions,” the petition said.

“Despite clear verdicts from the people, the opposition has resorted to a series of unfounded claims aimed at discrediting the election process. Opposition parties and their affiliated civil societies have systematically orchestrated campaigns over the past several years to target the judiciary and the Election Commission of India (ECI),” it said. “The pattern is clear: first, target the institutions; then, the election process; and if court verdicts do not favour them, target the judicial verdicts.”

The BJP urged the EC to “ensure the safety and security of the electoral process during the counting and announcement of results, including enhanced monitoring and security measures to prevent any attempts at violence or unrest”.

After meeting the EC, Goyal told reporters, “I think the mandate given by the people of India both in 2014 and 2019, and the likely mandate of the 2024 general elections, expected on June 4, has unnerved the opposition parties and certain non-governmental organisations, so-called civil society groups, who cannot accept a popular leader of the masses who has delivered for the well-being of 1.4 billion Indians.”

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The figures mentioned in the list are taken from the Press Releases issued by the Election Commission of India (ECI) at different times. The Committee noted that the Election Commission of India have not provided the absolute numbers of absolute data parliamentary wise, CPI (M) prepared this data very comprehensively.

The data prepared by the CPI (M), provides State/UT wise figures for Parliamentary Constituencies, Total Electors, Percentage of poll and Total Votes polled for all 7 phases.

The absolute figures of polled votes prepared by CPI (M) can be read here:

However, on May 25, the Election Commission of India released the absolutes numbers of voters for only 5 Phases. ECI added that Voter turnout data was always available 24X7 on facilitative Voter Turnout App from 9:30am in the morning of poll day of each phase. It publishes estimated voter turnout on two hourly basis till 1730 hrs. After 1900 hours when the polling parties start arriving, data is continuously updated. By midnight on the poll day, the Voter turnout app will show best estimated “Close of Poll (COP)” data in percentage form. Different media organizations pick up data at different points in time as per their convenience to report next morning. After the arrival of the poll parties, depending on geographical and weather conditions, the data of voters attains finality on P+1 or P+2 or P+3 or more days, depending upon arrival of parties and number of re-polls, if any.

Related:

Form 17 C data belongs to the public, must be released: Former CEC Dr. SY Quraishi and EC Ashok Lavasa to India Today

VVPAT-EVM Verification: SC issues directions for fool-proofing EVM, sealing of EVMs & SLUs enabling runner-up candidate verification

Glaring Mismatches in EVM Numbers Aggravate Concerns on ECI’s Poll Management

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According to the Deshbandhu Exit Poll, conducted in association with Electline of India agency, the NDA is forecasted to secure a total of 207-241 seats, whereas the INDIA bloc might win between 255-290 seats.

State-wise predictions of key states:

Uttar Pradesh: As per the findings of the poll, in the state of Uttar Pradesh, a close contest will take place between the NDA, which will be potentially securing seats between 46 to 48, and the INDIA bloc, comprising the Samajwadi Party and Congress projected to be winning 32-34 seats.

Maharashtra: In the state of Maharashtra, the exit poll forecasts 28-30 seats for the MVA (INDIA) and 18-20 seats for the Mahayuti (NDA). For Karnataka, the poll showed a surprising advantage for the Congress, predicting 18-20 seats, while the BJP and JD(S) alliance is expected to secure 8-10 seats.

Another detailed analysis of seat predictions of Maharashtra can be viewed here.

Bihar: In Bihar, the INDIA bloc is predicted to win 24-26 seats, compared to 14-16 seats for the NDA. In Madhya Pradesh, DB Live projects 24-26 seats for the BJP, with the Congress winning a mere 3-5 seats.

West Bengal: The exit poll also predicted a sweep for Mamata Banerjee-led TMC in West Bengal, with the party winning 26-28 seats, while the BJP is expected to get 11-13 seats.

Rajasthan: In the state of Rajasthan, the poll showed the BJP winning 17-19 seats, and the INDIA bloc securing 6-8 seats.

Tamil Nadu: The exit poll numbers also showed that in Tamil Nadu, the INDI alliance is likely to win 37 to 39 seats and NDA to win only 1.

Telangana: For the state of Telangana, the poll number showed 10-20 seats being won by Congress, 0-2 by BRS and 3-5 by BJP.

Punjab: As per the predictions, none of the 17 seats of Punjab will be won by the BJP, with 6-8 being projected to be won by the AAP and 5-7 by the Congress Party.

Karnataka: In the south state of Karnataka, where many have been predicting a landslide win for the BJP, DB Live has predicted a mere 8-10 seats falling in its bag, and the INDIA bloc winning 18-20 seats

It is essential to note that the exit poll shows a stupendous win for BJP led NDA in the states of Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat.

The complete video of the poll can be viewed here:

The poll results of DB Live were also shared by Congress leader Luv Dutta on ‘X’ (formerly Twitter) while asserting that the predictions of DB Live will be the actual number of seats that the INDIA bloc will be securing.

These are the exact numbers that you all will see on 4th June.
This #ExitPoll will come out to be true.#IndiaAlliance will form the Govt on the 4th of June. pic.twitter.com/SK7RpUi1Nu

— Luv Datta #INC (@LuvDatta_INC) June 1, 2024

Notably, the Congress party had, before the exit polls had even been released, refuse to take part in any such discussion. Many Congress leaders, including Jairam Ramesh, DK Shivakumar, have also issued statements dismissing the predictions of the mainstream poll surveys.

During the Karnataka Legislative Assembly elections, the exit polls gave Congress 80–90 seats, but we won 135 seats.

This time, we’re confident of winning 2/3 of the total Lok Sabha seats in the state.

The people of India want change.

: Shri @DKShivakumar, Karnataka Deputy… pic.twitter.com/kIcABfIpco

— Congress (@INCIndia) June 2, 2024

Moosewala Supremacy pic.twitter.com/lF68eJVOL9

— Nimo Tai (@Cryptic_Miind) June 2, 2024

Related:

FactChecked: 2024 Lok Sabha exit polls reveal conflicting predictions

Why Indian exit polls are often biased and favour the ruling party

Hasty exit poll conducted during the seventh phase of voting in Bengal

Elections Stories I missed in the newspapers that I buy

India’s Sixth Phase of elections marked by missing voters and discrimination: Independent Election Observers (IEO)

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Exit polls have become a crucial component of the Indian electoral process, providing a snapshot of voter sentiment before the official results are announced. However, the reliability of these polls has often been called into question, with varying degrees of accuracy and confidence in their predictions. One aspect to consider when evaluating the reliability of exit polls in India is the methodology used in conducting these polls. Exit polls typically involve surveying voters as they leave polling stations to gauge their preferences and behaviour. However, factors such as sample size, sampling techniques, and survey design can all influence the accuracy of the results. Furthermore, most poll agencies are not transparency about their data or methodology, while some try to explain their predictions based on generic claims about scale and quality of voter surveys.

India Today – Axis My India Exit Poll claims “unmatched history” of predicting “nearly” every election correctly. As per India Today, Axis My India Exit Poll 2024 has the largest survey in terms of sample size for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, encompassing 5.8 lakh interviews across all 543 parliamentary constituencies and 3,607 assembly constituencies. India Today said that over a period of 43 days, a team of 912 surveyors diligently conducted these interviews across 22,288 villages and cities with an aim to provide most “precise” predictions. Notably, in its explanation of their methodology, India Today is silent on representation in terms of gender, caste, age, religion, etc.

News18 said that it conducted mammoth exercise covering 21 states and 518 Lok Sabha seats for its exit poll survey, interviewing over 95000 voters. Furthermore, explaining its methodology, it notes that “In each Lok Sabha constituency, three Vidhan Sabha constituencies were covered, with 10 polling booths in each selected through random sampling. Around each polling station, trained investigators conducted 15 door-to-door interviews – one eligible respondent with inked finger per household. In case of the exit poll, near each polling station, 15 interviews were conducted of people coming out after casting their votes, with every fifth person stopped for an interview.” The news channel also claimed that it geo-tagged and cross-verified each figure and respondent. Again, the methodology is silent on the representative quality of the dataset.

Interestingly, other agencies did not provide any details about their methodology or dataset. Furthermore, the following considerations are important to keep in mind about the exit polls:

1. Methodological Challenges: Conducting exit polls requires significant logistical coordination. The reliability of the results can be affected by factors such as sample size, sampling methodology, and the quality of data collection.
2. Voter Behaviour: Voters may not always accurately report their choices, either due to social desirability bias or other reasons. This can lead to inaccuracies in exit poll predictions.
3. Margin of Error: Like any survey, exit polls come with a margin of error. This margin can vary depending on the methodology and sample size, meaning that the actual election results may fall outside the predicted range.
4. Dynamic Political Landscape: Indian elections often witness last-minute swings in voter preferences, making it challenging for exit polls to capture the true sentiment accurately.

5. Complex Electoral System: India’s multi-phase and multi-party electoral system, coupled with diverse regional dynamics, can make it difficult to capture the nuances of voter behavior accurately.
6. Regulatory Restrictions: India’s Election Commission imposes restrictions on the publication of exit poll results until all phases of voting are complete, which can affect the timing and accuracy of predictions.

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The data turnaround data released in such a way that clearly indicating a confirmation biased of media channels in between the contesting parties in Bengal and Ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Most of the exit polls have predicted that the BJP will get more seats than the Bengal’s ruling party TMC in the state.

NDA inclined Exit Polls for Bengal by National Media:

The Exit Polls by major media house inclined towards NDA.  As per date released by India Today-Axis My India Exit Polls for the 20224 Lok Sabha elections BJP likely to win 26-31 seats in Bengal and TMC will remain in between 11-14 and 0-2 for Left(M). The India Today-Axis My India exit poll predicted the BJP to get 46 per cent vote share in West Bengal. ABP Ananda Exit Polls in association with CVoter conducted Exit Polls and expected 23-27 seats for BJP, 13-17 for TMC, 1-3 INC. Not surprisingly, Republic TV PMARQ made a conservative estimate of 22 seats for BJP out of 47 and rest for others. As per Exit Polls released by Jan Ki Baat, NDA will get 21-26 seats, TMC 16-18 seats and others 0-2 seats.

Bengal’s local Exit Polls for Lok Sabha 2024 expects INDIA Bloc will get setback:

The Senior Journalist and Editor Santanu Dutta Choudhary from West Bengal expected 22-24 seats for TMC, 16-18 seats for BJP, 1 to Congress and 0-1 CPI(M). Bengal’s “Nagorik” News media house in their Exit Polls anticipated 22-24 seats for TMC, 16-18 to BJP and 2 seats for Congress and CPM. The exit polls data released by West Bengal’s local news channel Calcutta News estimated 20-25 seats for TMS and 16 to 21 for BJP and rest for left and congress.

Tulmuk in Nandigram, where Debangshu Bhattacharya is an MP candidate from TMC. This place is also known as Adhikari gar (means the place for Debangshu Adhikari). However, Debangshu Bhattacharya busted over the media hype taking reference from the previous poll. Over the Exit Polls he said, “Purba Medinipur has 16 seats where 9 seats were won by TMC and if we see the talks about the undivided Medinipur, it has 35 seats and TMC secured 26 seats.

TMC MP Sougata Roy, who is seeking re-election from the Dum Dum Lok Sabha seat for a fourth consecutive term, also rejected the exit poll predictions. TMC said it believed in people’s mandate.

Hasty turnaround of Exit Polls misleading and biased:

The exit polls released by National Media House no doubt biased and inclined towards ruling party. Shockingly Times Now provided mismatched data in Exit Polls. Times Now expected BJP likely to win 21 seats and 20 seats to TMC out of 42 but no clear on other 1 seat.

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