On Thursday, the EK Palaniswami led government in Tamil Nadu put on hold the exercise of updating the National Population Register (NPR) in the state. Revenue Minister Udhayakumar said this was because the Center had failed to respond to the Chief Minister’s queries about some additional questions in the NPR form.

He told Indian Express, “The newly added three questions have created a panic among minorities and Muslim communities. Our Chief Minister wrote a letter to the centre seeking clarification on the newly added questions but we didn’t receive any response.”

While the Tamil Nadu government has not passed a resolution against the Citizenship Amendment Act, which lies at the heart of the entire citizenship conundrum, the TN government has only issued notification about the census and not NPR. But the Opposition believes that this is not an effective stand and amounts to mere tokenism. DMK and its allies staged a walk out from the house. Earlier, DMK chief MK Stalin had demanded that AIADMK release a copy of the letter it sent to the Center dubbing it a ‘drama’ given how the AIADMK had voted in favour of the CAA.

He told Times of India, “It is only after the AIADMK MPs supported and helped pass the Citizenship Amendment Bill in Parliament that the people in the country had come to the streets protesting against the Act.” He added, “The state government, instead of defending the Central Act, should refuse to roll out NPR in the state.”

So far, the staunchest opposition to the NPR has come from West Bengal, that not only refused to implement it, but also did not send a representative to participate in the national workshop on the subject. Other states like Kerala, Punjab, Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh have passed resolutions against it while Telangana and Odisha have also raised grave concerns about questions in the NPR form.  

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Violent events rise by 9.9% and violent deaths by 13.4% when a regional party comes to power, says our analysis. We, associate professors of economics, studied the relationship between the election of a regional-party representative and political violence. We defined regional parties as those that are officially recognised by the Election Commission of India as “state parties” and have experienced electoral success in a geographically concentrated area.

There were 74 regional parties active during the period of our study. Some of these are the Asom Gana Parishad, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), Bodoland People’s Front, Jammu and Kashmir National Conference, Naga People’s Front and Telugu Desam Party.

The study looked at constituency-level assembly election data between 1988 and 2011 and events of political violence between 1989 and 2015.
Regional political parties are a defining feature of Indian democracy. There are several states where the presence of national parties such as the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) or the Congress is marginal or where they depend heavily on alliances with dominant regional parties. In Tamil Nadu, for example, the BJP and the Congress play a secondary role in alliances led by regional stalwarts AIADMK and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) that have been in power since 1967.

Regional parties may, in principle, be better equipped to bring the government to the people, at least relative to national parties. They typically contest elections on a platform that appeals specifically to a geographically concentrated population that commonly identifies along some dimension, such as language, ethnicity, or “nationality”.

But regionalism can come at a price, we found.

Many regional parties are borne out of regional movements that demand greater autonomy, for local populations. They are siblings of the extreme and violent organisations that were borne out of the same regional movements. So, regional parties often retain a complicated and potentially symbiotic relationship with the more extreme segments of the broader movement and may facilitate or overlook the violent activities of extremists in exchange for political support come election time.

The figure 1 (a & b) plots the average number of violent events against the percentage of seats won by national parties [1 (a)] and by regional parties [1(b)]. Figure 1 (a) implies that a 10 percentage point rise in the win percentage of national parties is associated with an 11.94% fall in political violence. The bottom figure implies that a 10 percentage point increase in the win percentage of regional parties is associated with a 14.26% increase in political violence.

Figure 1(a) :  The Number Of Violent Events And The Win Percentage For National Parties

Figure 1(b) : The Number Of Violent Events And The Win Percentage Of Regional Parties

Figure 2 plots the average occurrence of violence against the margin of victory or defeat for a regional political party candidate. To the right of the vertical line at 0 are cases where a regional party candidate won the assembly seat. To the left, those where a regional party candidate lost. The figure shows that average occurrence of a violent event increases when the local MLA belongs to a regional political party. 

Figure 2: Causal Effect Of Electing A Regional MLA On Political Violence

Secessionist roots are a factor

One explanation for the rise in this political violence could be the secessionist origins of many regional parties.

The study divided data into states that did and did not report any active secessionist movement during our sample period. The first category included states such as Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Jammu and Kashmir, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, Punjab, and Tripura. Then there were states like Gujarat, which primarily experienced Hindu-Muslim conflicts, and those like Andhra Pradesh that dealt with mostly insurgent Naxalite violence.

We found that the increase in violence associated with local regional party rule was driven entirely by states with a history of secessionism. This suggested that the election of a regional party increases secessionist violence in particular.

However, many of these states also experienced communal (nativist) violence. To determine whether the increased violence was due to secessionism or nativism, we further divided the data according to the protagonists involved in the violence. The idea was that secessionist violence would involve insurgents and central or state government forces, while nativist violence would involve groups of insurgents and civilians.

We found that only violence between insurgents and government forces increased when a regional representative was elected, further confirming that the election of these candidates cause secessionist violence in particular.

We also investigated if the level of violence depended on whether the regional party was solely responsible for governing the state or was only a member of a coalition. The violence, we found, was driven entirely by instances where regional parties were part of a governing coalition. This suggested that greater access to executive power may be a means of appeasing the violent groups associated with these regional political parties.

Should regional parties be curbed?

The results do not imply that regional parties should be banned from participation in elections in India. For one, the study estimated the causal effect of individual representatives who belong to regional parties. To curb their electoral role would also need an estimate of the causal effect of banning them.

Also, regional political parties can, in principle, confer significant benefits on the voters they represent. These and other hard-to-measure benefits need to be taken into account before drawing extreme conclusions about limiting the role of regional political parties. 

(Magesan is an associate professor of economics at the University of Calgary, Canada, and Kapoor is associate professor of economics at the Erasmus University, the Netherlands.)

Courtesy: India Spend

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“Naa eppo varuven eppadi varuven nu yarukum theriyathu
aana varavendiya tithula correct ah varuven”
(No one knows when and how I will enter. But I will enter at the right time)
 
The above lines are from the 1995 blockbuster of Rajinikanth named Muthu. Rajinikanth is the tallest global star from India whose popularity is not just limited to south and not even limited to the Indian subcontinent. He’s the most popular Indian star in Southeast Asia and also Japan. The Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP) under the leadership of Amit Shah^[1] is making a furious attempt to enter the unconquered regions of East and South India.
 
Tamil Nadu, with 39 MPs, is electorally the biggest state in South India. In 2014, BJP garnered just a single^[2] seat here regardless of the enormous Modi wave.
 
The greatest superstar of South Indian Cinema on May 15 suggested that that he may join politics. Meeting with his fans^[3] in Chennai, hotshot Rajinikanth ended his hush in regards to the tremendously discussed issue of whether the superstar would join politics or not. For decades now, the land of Marudur Gopalan Ramachandran (MGR) and the latest lost icon, Jayalalitha, Rajinikanth's current articulations where he has clearly hinted that he could enter into the political arena if "god wills" has changed everything. For a state like Tamil Nadu where film stars and the silver screen have been projected onto the state’s political amphitheatre, the mere speculation of Rajinikanth’s entering politics is a sweet melody to the ears of the fans of the Thalaivar.
 
The Tamil cinema has, for the most part, focused on linguistic and cultural identity and Indian politics has additionally been worked on similar principles for a very long period.
 
"Whatever I had to say I said, now I have nothing more to say^[4]," was the actor's response when he was asked recently about union minister Pon Radhakrishnan saying the BJP "welcomes" him. He did not however say “no”. The actor said that, while he had no political ambitions, but "If God wills it, I will enter politics tomorrow^[5].” His remark is being seen as the stepping stone for setting up another career after his retirement from the movies. As far BJP's invitation is concerned "into politics or the party", Rajinikanth hasn't offered any comment yet.
 
The talk, possibility and hopes around Rajinikanth's entry into politics have assumed the form of an imaginary trailer –long time running! – of the ultimate, whimsical blockbuster in Tamil Nadu. First showing in 1995, it's been run for long years, teasing his fans but not tiring their interest. For the past 21 years, Rajini has kept the whole state in the will-he-won’t-he- mode. For some political analysts and fans, the most recent remarks signal his actual preparedness now, at this point. The only question before them is whether he will hold hands with the existing BJP or launch his own party. When the Congress held hands with Jayalalithaa in 1996, he supported the DMK^[6] and had famously stated, “Even God cannot save Tamil Nadu^[7] if AIADMK returns to power.” The DMK alliance went ahead and won those polls in a tsunami wave with Jayalalithaa losing her own seat and her party AIADMK securing just 4 seats in the 235-strong TN Assembly. It won’t be an exaggeration to state that it was Rajini who ensured Jayalalitha’s electoral rout with just a single statement.
 
The BJP desperately wants to gain a foothold in Tamil Nadu and the iconic actor is one easy way in. BJP, with its overt and obvious Hindi-Hindutva-Hindustan baggage has always been perceived as an organisation and outfit of Hindi-speakers and Brahmins and that's the reason it has so failed to find an echo and footing within the anti-Hindi and anti-Brahmin Dravidian politics of the state. The party is now making a more than decent attempt to recast itself, however, it desperately needs a face in the state and only Rajinikanth has the capacity to saffronise Tamil Nadu. Rajinikanth shares a personal kinship with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In April 2014^[8] just before the Lok Sabha election, Modi had approached Rajinikanth while campaigning in Chennai.
 
Former CM Jayalalitha has only left an inactive ailing Karunanidhi behind, which paves the way for superstar Rajini’s entry into politics as the most popular and importantly a clean face. On the off chance that Modi and Rajnikanth do finally hold hands, they would likely be seen as an invincible team. It seems feasible that the BJP would like to have the face and charm of Rajini, as well as Jayalalithaa to garner the maximum votes in the state. Rajinikanth has effectively communicated his regret of humiliating Jaya her in 1996, terming it as a "political accident"; this with the BJP clandestinely backing the AIADMK faction^[9] driven by O Panneerselvam(OPS) that claims to be the genuine legacy custodian of Jaya, the formula of the BJP backed by the OPS faction backed by Rajinikanth appears to be the current calculation.
 
If not Tamil Nadu and Rajinikanth as its chief minister, there are also the crucial forthcoming presidential elections. If Modi’s BJP throws this gauntlet as Rajinikanth as President, , it would be extremely difficult for either the Congress or the regional parties of the South like AIADMK, DMK, JD(S) or K Chandrashekar Rao's Telangana Rashtra Samithi, to oppose a glamorous non-controversial South Indian candidate like Rajinikanth for the post.  In the past, the Shiv Sena^[10] has gone against the NDA and even supported UPA’s Pratibha Patil in the name of Marathi pride. Electorally, the BJP has also begun making inroads into the South. The party opened its account in Kerala^[11] last year and has expanded its vote share from 6.3% to over 15%. The NDA will thus gain political capital for garnering Rajini as Indian President's seat and may, in this way, expect electoral gains for itself in the South, especially in Tamil Nadu for the 2019 general elections.
 
Rajinikanth’s popularity is beyond any other Indian politician today.
 
He commands the heights of adoration. He has seen fans queuing up for a few miles to have a glance of their superstar. His fans revere him like a God, purchase his film tickets en masse, and even urge him to join politics. Dissimilar to film stars of the past who have entered politics, Rajinikanth stands aloof and alone, even on questions of identity.
 
He is a Marathi by birth whose birth name is Shivaji Rao Gaekwad^[12]. He hails from Karnataka and achieved stardom of epic proportions in Tamil Nadu.
 
“People keep saying I am not a Tamil,” Rajinikanth said. “Let me tell them that I spent only 23 years in Karnataka. The remaining 44, I have spent here. With their support, Tamil people have made me one of their own. I am a Pachai Tamizhan [pure Tamil]. If I am forced to leave this land, I will only head to Himalayas to be with the Yogis and not to any other state.^[13]”
 
However, given his Kannadiga roots, Rajini will be solicited to experience the ordeal of proving his Tamilian sub-patriotism each time that Karnataka turns the Cauvery tap. Rajinikanth has over 80,000 fan clubs^[14] spread across Tamil Nadu, a number greater than the supporters of any political party in the state. This popularity that he commands can also be mis-used or mis-appropriated if he becomes a full-time politician. Though high on popularity, he lacks political ideology.
 
Rajinikanth strongest hint, so far on about his political debut, was dropped on May 27when he stated “The current political situation is such that the system does not think about the people. It does nothing for them. That has to change,^[15]”. Maintaining that the political framework is "corrupt" and democracy is in a "rotten" state in Tamil Nadu, Rajinikanth also urged his fans to be prepared for "war" at the right time.
 
The Dravidian politics’ domination in Tamil Nadu and Rajinikanth’s over-emphasis on spirituality and religion, both on and off cinema, has led to current speculation over whether he might eventually seek refuge under Modi and the BJP.

There have also been speculations about Thalaivar launching his own party^[16] which will then become an ally of the NDA II government. Then, his own party could be a milder version of a saffron outfit. Either which way, Rajinikanth’s entry will be a game changer for Tamil politics. Until any clear confirmation from the Thalaivar, we can only await his move with bated breath.

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Police presence was especially stepped up at a resort, about 80 kms from Chennai, where MLAs supporting her have been housed since the past few days.

Sasikala herself stayed overnight at the resort.

Police personnel were also seen maintaining vigil on the roads in Chennai and other parts of the state. A unit of Tamil Nadu Police with senior officials just entered Golden Bay Resort in Kovathur where Sasikala is staying, reports ANI.

The apex court today quashed the Karnataka High Court verdict acquitting Sasikala in the disproportionate assets case and asked her to surrender herself forthwith.

She was elected as the Legislature Party Leader on February 5, paving the way for her becoming Chief Minister.

However, two days later, Panneerselvam raised a banner of revolt against her, alleging he was forced to step down for her.

Over the past few days the rival camps traded charges and counter-charges with some MPs and MLAs deserting Sasikala.

Soon after the verdict, BJP MP Subramanian Swamy tweeted, “After 20 years I won. Now turn of TDK Buddhu PC BC & Tata to join in jail (sic).”
 

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Tamil Nadu now has India’s lowest fertility rate–lower than Australia, Finland and Belgium–second best infant mortality and maternal mortality rate; records among the lowest crime rates against women and children; and has more factories and provides more industrial employment than any other Indian state, according to an IndiaSpend analysis of various data sets.
 
However, financing the freebie culture came at a cost. Tamil Nadu witnessed a 92% increase in debt  over five years ending 2015, according to an IndiaSpend analysis of state budgets in November 2015.

 
Tamil Nadu’s education indicators have always been above the Indian average and have steadily improved during Jayalalithaa’s 15-year stint as chief minister.

Although Tamil Nadu regularly reports violence and discrimination based on caste, the state’s crime rates are among India’s lowest, particularly those relating to women and children.

 
As regards industrial growth, Tamil Nadu has more factories than any other Indian state (37,378),  according to the Annual Survey of Industries, 2013-14. Maharashtra ranks second with 29,123 factories, followed by Gujarat with 22,876. More people are engaged in industrial work
(2.04 million) in Tamil Nadu of any Indian state; Maharashtra (1.8 million) is second and Gujarat (1.37 million) third.

 Tamil Nadu’s per capita income is India’s fifth highest, but the four states preceding it are substantially smaller. Among the country’s large states, it has the richest people.
 

Freebies come at a cost
 
Jayalalithaa is known for the freebie culture, which she did not begin but did expand, personalising it along the way. For instance, her 2011 election promises included 100 units of free electricity to every household, a free laptop for class 11 and class 12 students (with free internet connections), a gram of sovereign gold as marriage assistance, and four goats/sheep to families who lived below the poverty line. The laptops had images of “Amma (mother)”, as Jayalalithaa was popularly known. Other programmes also carried that name, such as Amma canteens (for subsidised food) and Amma medicals (for subsidised medicines).
 
While some programmes were applauded as having a social effect–such as the midday meal scheme, which Tamil Nadu pioneered before Jayalalithaa took office for the first time in 1991 and encouraged children to stay in school–they resulted in the fastest rising debt of any Indian state, as IndiaSpend reported in November 2015.
 

Source: Reserve Bank of India, Census 2011
 
Debt, per se, is not bad, if the state’s economic growth can sustain and service it. So, the key matrix is the debt as a percentage of the state’s gross domestic product (GSDP) or total economic output. Tamil Nadu’s debt-to-GSDP ratio at 20% is lower than the national average, an indication the state is growing despite the spike in debt.
 
(Salve is an analyst with IndiaSpend.)

Courtesy: India Spend
 

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Jayalalithaa’s failing health condition has sent shock waves in Tamil Nadu. But Amma’s followers are not giving up on the prayers for their determined leader with an iron fist to make a quick recovery. Bringing glamour to the dreary world of politics, Amma as she is known, has ruled with an iron fist and often displayed signs of authoritarianism

She grew up being multi-lingual, being fluent in languages, as a student. Hindi, English, Kannada, Tamil and Telugu, Jayalalitha and mastered the gift of fluent communication  even winning the Gold State Award for topping the Std 10 examination in all of Tamil Nadu. From there, it was a carrier in acting that began with a part in an English play “Epistle” in 1961; and then armed with fair skin and looks –the requirements of the silver screen—she went on to act in over 140 films of which 60 were in Tamil.
 
J Jayalalithaa’s debut was in the Tamil film with Vennira Aadai in 1965. This was the first film to be rated ‘Adults Only’ since Marma Yogi got an A certificate in 1951. The irony was Jayalalitha could not watch her film being an underage. The Film Certification body was not too happy as she was the first Tamil actress to wear sleeveless blouses and even allowed herself to get suggestively drenched under a waterfall! What followed were a stream of successes movies starting with Venniradai in 1965, followed by Ayirathil Oruvan, Kudi Iruntha Kovil, Gallata Kalyanam, Adimai Penn, Oli Villaku and Deiva Magan. Jayalalithaa was one of the most prominent faces of the South film industry and bankable stars of the 1960s.
 

Jaya the Authoritarian Ruler

Among the more memorable lines that flowed from J. Jayalalithaa was this gem about the media in India: "The people of this country are illiterate. They don't read newspapers and don't care what the papers write." 

Thirteen years ago in mid-November 2003, ensconced within the high security walls of her Poes Garden residence, the chief minister of Tamil Nadu must have quietly eaten her words. Using her brute majority, she got the Tamil Nadu Assembly to pass a resolution sentencing five senior editors of The Hindu and the editor of DMK newspaper Murasoli to 15 days in jail.

Their crime: The Hindu in April this year had published an editorial titled "Rising Intolerance" which had attacked Jayalalitha's authoritarian ways. The editor of the DMK mouthpiece was sentenced for merely reproducing a translation of The Hindu editorial in the Tamil newspaper. Following her deplorable words, on the evening of November 7, half an hour after the state Assembly passed the resolution, a police team stormed The Hindu office on Chennai's arterial Mount Road to arrest its Editor N. Ravi, Executive Editor Malini Parthasarathy, Bureau Chief V. Jayant, Special Correspondent Radha Venkatesan and Publisher S. Rangarajan. " It is not the privilege of the Assembly to protect the chief minister's reputation," he said. The Hindu, which moved the Supreme Court a day after the police came calling at its offices, obtained a stay on the arrests on November 10.
 
After appearing to be defiant initially – she filed fresh defamation cases against The Hindu even as the apex court granted the stay – Jayalalithaa softened up, saying her Government would fully comply with the court order. Evidently, she can scarcely afford to antagonise the court which is soon to decide on the TANSI land scam in which she is the main accused.
 
Jayalalithaa's dislike for the press has been part of parcel of her rule, a trait she shares with prime minister Narendra Modi. Soon after she came to power in May 2001, a TV reporter was arrested and 150 journalists protesting the arrest were kept in police custody for a day. The Hindu has faced 16 defamation cases, all filed since the AIADMK came to power. And so long as the privilege rights of the legislatures are not codified brute state power as displayed by Jayalalithaa can prove to be mightier than the pen.
 
Her misuse of power and position has also been consistently directed towards her critics. In August this year, the Supreme Court told Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa that as a public leader, she must learn to face criticism. The sharp rebuke came while the court was hearing a petition filed by DMDK chief Vijayakanth seeking dismissal of a defamation case filed against him by the state government. “No other state misuses the state machinery like the Tamil Nadu government. Defamation cases can’t be slapped for merely reporting on CM’s health condition,” the court was quoted saying.
 
In July 2016, the court had observed that defamation cases cannot be used as a political counter-weapon against critics of the government. It had further stayed the non-bailable warrants that were issued against Vijayakanth and his wife Premlata. The case against the couple was lodged by the Public Prosecutor of Tirupur district on the allegation that they made false remarks against the Chief Minister and criticised the working of the state government. Reportedly, 14 cases of defamation have been slapped against Vijayakanth.
 
Following close suit to the dangerous trends evident in the fashion in which the law enforcement agencies –police, federal agencies—have been misusing sedition laws after the Modi regime swept to power in May 2014 –the Tamil Nadu state police, under Jayalalitha, slapped sedition charges against six social activists and human rights defenders of ‘Makkal Adhikaram’ (People’s Rights), a social organisation in Tamil Nadu, for simply organising a meeting/conference to demand closure of State-run liquor outlets in Tamil Nadu. The activists were allegedly charged under sedition for making inflammatory speeches at the event held on February 14, 2016 at the Uzhavar Sandhai Ground in Tiruchirappalli over the issue of Tasmacliquor shops across the state of Tamilnadu. An appeal on the case has been issued by Human Right Defenders Alert-India (HRDA).

MGR the Mentor

It was the legendary film star turned astute politician, M. G. Ramachandran (simply MGR) who was J Jayalalithaa’s inspiration and thereafter her godfather. MGR founded Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) and went on to become the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu in 1977. MGR was the first film actor to become the CM of an Indian state. Jayalalithaa followed the footsteps of her guru to become successful actor turned politician.
 
J Jayalalithaa acted with MGR on several film projects. They gave a smash hit movie Ayirathil Oruvan in 1965. This pair delivered huge critically and commercially successful hits in the 60s like Thaikku Thalaimagan (1967), Kannan En Kadhalan(1968), Oli Vilakku (1968), Rahasya Police 115 (1968) and Mattukkara Velan (1969).
 

Jayalalithaa's Disproportionate Assets Case

Incumbent Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, Jayaram Jayalalitha, was finally acquitted in the infamous 18-year-old disproportionate assets (amounting to Rs. 66.65 crore) and corruption case by the Karnataka High Court on 11 May 2015. A trial court had convicted and sentenced her to four years of jail as well as a fine of Rs. 100 crore on 27 September 2014. Jayalalitha filed an appeal challenging the decision in the Karnataka High Court. These charges were held “not sustainable” by the special bench of the Karnataka High Court. Earlier, the five-time Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu was held guilty by a special court in Bangalore in a disproportionate assets case and had to vacate her post as a consequence. The charges were levelled by Dr. Subramanian Swamy in 1996. She was convicted under IPC 109 and 120 (b) along with 13 of the Prevention of Corruption Act, 1988.

Earlier, in 2001, the Supreme Court today dealt a severe blow to the political career of the AIADMK chief, Ms. Jayalalithaa, by quashing her appointment as Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu by the then Governor, Ms. Fathima Beevi, on May 14.A five-judge Constitution Bench, in a unanimous verdict of 5-0, held “a person who is convicted for a criminal offence and sentenced to imprisonment for a period of not less than two years cannot be appointed the Chief Minister of a State under Article 164 (1) read with (4) and cannot continue to function as such.'' In effect, the court rejected the argument that a popular mandate – or the `will' of the people – could override the Constitution. The Bench observed that it was not impressed by the submission that the court should not issue a quo warranto as the six-month period, allowed by Article 164 (4), would expire in about two months and it was possible for Ms. Jayalalithaa to succeed in the criminal appeals (in the TANSI cases) filed by her in the Madras High Court. “We take the view that the appointment of a person to the office of Chief Minister who is not qualified to hold it should be struck down at the earliest.'' The Bench did not accept the contention that once a sentence was stayed by the High Court and an appeal was pending, the conviction would not operate and Ms. Jayalalithaa suffered no disqualification, and said “conviction and sentence it carries operate against the accused in all their rigour until set aside in appeal, and a disqualification that attaches to the conviction and sentence applies as well.''

Fifteen years later, the AIDMK supremo, obtained interim bail, extended over two periods, also in a corruption case where a lower court had convicted her in December 2014.
 

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