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Withering Lotus: BJP’s most embarrassing electoral debacles of 2019

Mon, 30 Dec 2019 11:11:15 +0000

Bengal bye elections: The Trinamool Congress won all three constituencies where bye elections were held on November 25. The TMC held on to Karimpur with Bimalendu Sinha Roy defeating BJP’s Jay Prakash Majumdar by over 23,000 votes. TMC also won Kalianganj, where Tapan Deb Singha defeated BJP’s Kamal Chandra Sarkar by a slim margin of just over 2000 votes. Both constituencies are significant because of a large population of migrants and refugees.

However, the icing on the cake was wresting back control of Kharagpur Sadar from the clutches of the BJP, especially since it was the constituency of BJP state chief Dilip Ghosh. This was also perhaps one of BJPs most humiliating defeats this year. Bye elections were necessitated here are Ghosh became a Member of Parliament. But TMC’s Pradip Sarkar thrashed BJP’s Prem Chandra Jha with a winning margin of over 20,000 votes!

Maharashtra: Despite the aggressive campaigning, the Bharatiya Janata Party suffered a substantial decrease in their total vote share within the state, and did not win enough seats to prevent Devendra Phadnavis’s ego from getting bulldozed by the electorate’s mandate. In what was even more humiliating, despite overnight string-pulling and back-channel negotiations, BJP’s oldest ally and a party that shares the same ethno-religious ideology, the Shiv Sena, also left them high and dry when it allied with BJP’s arch nemesis the Congress and the craft Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) to for the government.

And for those waiting for Uddhav Thackeray to pull a rabbit out of the hat, beware… the original Chanakya, Sharad Pawar, is always ten moves ahead when it comes to the political chessboard.

Jammu and Kashmir BDC polls: In the first major electoral activity after the abrogation of Article 370 that revoked the special status of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), the elections results of the Block Development Council (BDC) dealt a body blow to the BJP. Independents swept the elections by winning a majority in 217 blocks out of the total 307 where polling was conducted. The state witnessed 98.3% polling where apart from the independents winning 217 blocks, BJP won 81.

The BJP had fielded 135 candidates in Jammu from which only 52 managed to win. In Kashmir, out of its 60 candidates only 18 managed to clinch a victory. Eight of these wins have come from the militant hotbed of south Kashmir’s Shopian district, where most of the candidates in the fray are Kashmiri Pandits living as migrants in Jammu.

Jharkhand: This was the most recent loss and solidified BJP’s reputation as a party in decline across the country. The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha – Congress alliance routed the BJP in the state. What’s worse, it dethroned the sitting chief minister Raghubar Das in his own constituency. While some might blame it on the BJP’s general arrogance and over-dependence on the Modi factor, the dissatisfaction among tribal communities cannot be ignored. After all, the BJP’s proposed changes to Shanthal Parganas Tenancy Act and Chhota Nagpur Tenancy Act threatened tribals’ right over land. There was also a brutal crackdown by the police under the BJP regime on two key protests in the state; those by para-teachers and anganwadi workers.

The party had already been summarily trounced in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in 2018. More importantly, these electoral body-blows came at a crucial political juncture when BJP is juggling with the Kashmir conundrum and burgeoning anti-CAA protests… the writing is on the wall. One just hopes the BJP isn’t too arrogant to read it.

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Modi’s Assembly Election Loss – A Post Mortem

Wed, 19 Dec 2018 07:08:20 +0000

A detailed post-mortem of why is Modi magic failing by Abhisar Sharma in Newschakra’s episode 7

Is hate-politics really working in milking the votes for BJP. Losing in assembly elections in three big states, a reality check of Modi led BJP. A detailed post-mortem of why is Modi magic failing by Abhisar Sharma in Newschakra’s episode 7.

Courtesy: Newsclick.in

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How a variety of factors, not just anti-incumbency, contributed to BJP’s demise in three states

Tue, 18 Dec 2018 04:55:16 +0000

The election results of five states on December 11 made good reading for people who have been wishing for the defeat of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in these states. Such wishes come with a silent satisfaction for many that the Congress came out as one big power in three out of five states: Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. But the much-talked issue on various media platforms (even celebrated to a large extent) is that the BJP failed to secure a winning margin in states which have been adding to their power and pride; the feeling that it was going to rule the country in every manner and for a long time. The reason which has been cited the most for Congress’ win is the factor of anti-incumbency which was highest in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

Raman Singh held the Chief Minister post of Chhattisgarh for three straight terms of fifteen years and Shivraj Singh Chouhan held Chief minister post in Madhya Pradesh from 2005 until 2018. The factor about Rajasthan which has been cited most is that the state has a tradition of giving power to BJP and Congress alternatively in assembly elections and that the win of Congress is the result of the same tradition.

However, these are not the regions where BJP was anticipated to fail. Reasons have been given from anti-incumbency to the tradition-following-voter to rule out the actual causes behind the BJPs huge loss in these elections, and believe me, the cited ones come last. And here’s why.

Hindutva agenda is not always plain sailing
If assessed correctly, the politics and rhetoric of Hindutva were continuously prevailing in the campaign structure of BJP. Introducing Yogi Adityanath—whose image has never been of a politician but a campaigner of Hindutva repute—to campaign for BJP is part of the same agenda. Just a few days before the polls, BJP’s sister organisations started lobbying in Ayodhya on November 25 actually trying to “protest” for the creation of Ram Temple. The chief organizers of the event were Vishwa Hindu Parishad and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. When the question was put before the organisers that against whom they were protesting, there were no answers.

The same is with the case with the politics of Hindutva. This has been the largest outcry in the election agenda of BJP, but the enemy to the Hindutva has always been imaginary. The Hindutva policies do not have the exact idea over to stand against whom, when and why? The pre-poll act in Ayodhya and the fiasco to erect Rama’s statue along Saryu river had a clear goal: to polarise the voters in favour of BJP. But the party failed to acknowledge that not only Rajasthan and MP did not care much about this campaign, even UP did not take much interest in this issue.
Moreover, the political idea of Hindutva works mostly in the minds of youth. The youngsters between 21 to 35 years have been the target of BJP, as it conducted several campaigns and rallies in these states with the help of its students’ organisation, the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP) to create a young cadre. But the party surely failed to acknowledge that the idea of Hindutva would only work well if the youths get job opportunities. The unemployment rates have been highest in the recent past, and as one RSS Pracharak from Rajasthan told me, “We could not console a disappointed vote by giving it something it does not need at all.”

Hindutva’s tone could have worked well for the majority of votes if the youth was not disappointed with the basic problems and demands it has been raising.

Why we must pay more attention to the agrarian crisis
During the 2017 assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, when everyone was talking about possible alliances, social equations, and caste politics in the state, one more agenda was one the table of the BJP: farm loan waivers.

The BJP firmly promised to waive farm loans and the result of such a promise also reflected in the election results. But coming to 2018 assembly elections in MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, BJP passed the agrarian baton to the Congress where it took the lead and promised to waive farm loans within a week of coming into the power.

This tactic—which was earlier exercised and excelled by BJP—was played well by Congress especially in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the states which have been hit the worst with the farmers’ issues.

Madhya Pradesh has been facing farmers’ protests—the major violent role in which was played by RSS-backed farmers groups—and Shivraj Singh Chouhan played out a high voltage drama of protesting against the protest last year, giving out idea to the rural population that he has been incompetent in dealing with farmers’ issues of the state. RSS backed organisations tried to destabilise Chouhan’s government with the help of Kailash Vijayvargiya, a veteran BJP leader who has waiting long to sit on CM’s chair in MP, but RSS could not make inroads for Kailash or any other BJP leader, leaving out the turf open for Congress to address farmers’ issues.

The situation with the Raman Singh government in Chhattisgarh was similar. He reportedly did a fair job in implementing central government schemes on the ground level but failed to address issues of farmers during his tenure. Farmers picked up the tone of Congress that it would waive off loans in ten days and went against the incumbent Raman Singh.

Moreover, the rural votes in these three states were chiefly affected by the Kisaan Long March which happened earlier this year under the umbrella of several socialist and left-leaning farmers organisations of the country. Combining the peaceful long marches, and the violent protests that happened in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat, Congress tried to cash the anti-BJP mood, which has been told just a matter of anti-incumbency.

Nehru-Gandhi-70 years and negative publicity
Narendra Modi and star campaigners in BJP have been projecting one image of a country that during its 70 years of rule, Congress did not give anything to this country. The dynasty politics of Nehru and Gandhi has also been one of the major focal points for the Narendra Modi.

But Modi failed to notice that he was giving out a golden opportunity of Congress exploiting this negative publicity by him. Every time Modi used his tone to scold Congress, Congress was also in the news and social media along Modi. Moreover, the public in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, which was already trying to get rid of incumbent government and Raje’s stubbornness, soon realised that even Modi did not have something concrete to deliver. He promised a few things from his rallies, but his tone used to return to Gandhi-Nehru bashing all the time, giving out the idea that it was tough for him to stand by the public side.

Pic from twitter

BJP’s failure to manage upper castes’ anger
On August 28, a day-long meeting including BJP’s chief ministers and deputy chief ministers was called in New Delhi. The meeting was being chaired by Narendra Modi and BJP’s own ‘Chanakya’, Amit Shah. While many issues were discussed in this meeting, the pressure was given on the Upper caste anger in many of the states. The anger was the result of the SC/ST Act, which parliament brought to restore the original bill.

Many of the Savarna pages on social media were urging upper caste voters to press NOTA in upcoming elections. The meeting on August 28 was essentially called to address this upper-caste anger. Instructions were given to CMs to reach out to upper-caste groups in their states and to make them aware of government’s welfare schemes which are equally beneficial for them. Meanwhile, strategists inside the party would work on the way to bring back its core trust base back to the party. This way, BJP thought, it could resolve the anger.

According to the party’s sources, the party could chart out a clear strategy to reach out upper castes and to make them believe that BJP is their party, as it has always been. But as a result, the BJP could not lose the tag of “upper caste party”—same as that of Congress—even after several attempts. Not that many Savarna people pressed NOTA, but they went on to press the Congress button on EVMs knowing that the latter has also the same repute between the upper caste voters of India.

Anti-incumbency, boredom and loss of Modi wave
One Twitter handle named @zoo_bear has tweeted a series of tweets after the results of the election came out on Wednesday. The series of tweets compare Modi’s rallies in certain constituencies of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, and the performance of the BJP candidates in those constituencies. In a majority of these place, the BJP candidates lost the election to Congress by huge margins and the others, the BJP won by small margins.

On the television panels, BJP leaders and spokespersons have been claiming that there is no loss of Modi wave and state election reflecting the nation’s mood is not a wise way to think. But, seeing the actual performance of BJP candidates in those areas tells a completely different story.
On the day of the elections results, Indian Express published a report telling if the mood of the nation goes like this, BJP can lose as much as 30 Loksabha seats from Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan. BJP has also sensed it quickly, that is why it has sent an emergency note Intelligence Bureau (IB) asking it to assess the mood of the nation and submit a detailed report in the following weeks.

In the past as well, IB submitted reports to Modi-Shah predicting the mood of the voters before election results in these five states. Moreover, the IB reports are said to have taken as case studies to predict the election results and make strategies further.

Another important factor has been the negligence of Schedule Tribes and Schedule Castes in these three states, especially Chhattisgarh. The continuous anti-reservation gimmicks played out by BJP in Telangana and Madhya Pradesh to attract Savarna votes in its favours turned badly against itself in Chhattisgarh, where the rural farming population is mostly tribe.

As a political party, BJP must be mulling for future strategies. If sources are to be believed, it will also intensify the Ram Temple movement (with unstable and foggy agenda) to polarise voters in Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar and Uttarakhand to regain its hold on Hindu votes. The sign is clear that BJP is facing a tough road ahead, but one can only wait to see if the new and aggressive campaign strategies will work or not.

Courtesy: Two Circles

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Assembly Verdict: Different Outcomes, But BJP is Biggest Loser

Wed, 12 Dec 2018 05:14:44 +0000

BJP has lost its big majorities in the three states it was ruling in the Hindi heartland, while it made no dent in the other two.

The final results have not yet been declared but counting is fairly advanced and one thing is clear: BJP has suffered a major setback in all the three states it was ruling – Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. In Telangana, its vote has declined and its seats have gone down from five to three. In Mizoram, it was a marginal force with no seat in the outgoing Assembly. This time it has scraped through with a single seat.

In Rajasthan, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has suffered a loss of nearly 7% in its vote share compared with the last Assembly elections in 2013. In MP, the loss is about 3.5%, in Chhattisgarh the loss is a whopping 8.5%.

Compared with the 2014 Lok Sabha elections when it swept these three states on the back of the so-called Modi wave, BJP has suffered an even more ignominious loss, as can be seen in the election data tool available on the Newsclick site. In Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, its vote share has gone down by about 17% while in MP it has declined by about 13%.

In terms of seats – and government formation – the waters are muddied up in MP because of the close race with the Congress leading in 115 seats and BJP in 104 at the time of writing. Since the halfway mark is 115 in the 230-member House, it looks like the MP Assembly is going to be hung – at least 116 would be required for majority. Four Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) MLAs and six independent or small party winners will come into play and become crucial. BSP, which has been consistently opposing BJP in recent years, should support the Congress but the allegiance of independent/small party MLAs is anybody’s guess.

In Rajasthan, Congress with 103 leads, appears to have crossed the halfway mark of 99 (elections were held for 199 of the200 seats). The state has seen at least 18 independent or small party candidates winning of which at least six are BJP rebels and seven are Congress rebels. In Chhattisgarh, Congress has comfortably romped home with 63 leads in the 90-member House with 46 as the halfway mark.

So, both in terms of vote share and seats, BJP emerges as the uniform loser in these three states. The reasons for this stunning defeat are not too difficult to find.

Reaction Against Disastrous Economic Policies
As Newsclick had repeatedly pointed out in the past months, there was a groundswell of discontentment building in these three big states primarily because of farmers’ destitution, raging joblessness (especially among youth), stagnant wages even as prices were rising, and the twin disasters of demonetisation and Goods and Services Tax. In other words, there was a rejection of the economic hardship imposed by the unabashed neo-liberal model imposed under the BJP leadership.

In both MP and Chhattisgarh, where foodgrain production had zoomed up in the past decade, the announced MSP was becoming more and more irrelevant as government procurement declined because of cuts in government allocations. This left a large number of farmers facing ruin because of non-remunerative prices, much below Minimum Support Price (MSP), in the open market. This was on top of the fact that the farmers had pinned their hopes on Narendra Modi’s promise to fix MSP at 50% more than the total cost of production, which he never fulfilled. As a result of this betrayal indebtedness grew, as did distress and an increasing number of suicides was one of the direct results. In Rajasthan, too, a similar situation was faced by farmers which led to massive protests for many months. In MP, police opened fire on protesting farmers in Mandsaur in June 2017.

Joblessness has been a notable and persistent feature of the Modi regime, and in these three states the ruling BJP faced people’s ire over another betrayal of Modi – the promise of one crore jobs. The state government tried to put forth their own employment targets but miserably failed to meet them. Young people, who had supported Modi in earlier elections, turned against the BJP because of this betrayal.

Both MP and Rajasthan also saw implementation of policies that squeezed industrial labour by diluting labour laws, allowing freer hire and fire policies, and difficulty in forming their trade unions.

But the industrial workers were hardest hit by some of the lowest wages paid in the whole of the country in these BJP-ruled states. Minimum wages are just Rs.5,749 per month in Rajasthan and Rs.7,125 in MP, compared with the minimum calculated by the Indian Labour Conference formula of Rs.18,000 currently. These low wage rates combined with ever increasing prices of food items and fuel costs led to the immiseration of workers. This, too, was a big factor in the anger against the government – both Modi at the Centre and the respective BJP-led state government.

Wages of agricultural labourers also have suffered a decline in the past few years in inflation adjusted terms. In all these states, agricultural labourers form a very large part of the electorate and their disenchantment with BJP was expressed in these elections.

The funding cuts imposed by these governments on welfare schemes like the rural jobs guarantee programme, Integrated Child Development Scheme, SC/ST scholarships, healthcare delivery system, schools and even foodgrain procurement increased the distress of people, thus turning them away from the saffron party.

It’s Also A Defeat of Communal Propaganda and Violence
The defeat of BJP comes after an election campaign in which Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath was the BJP’s main campaigner, holding more than double the number of rallies than Modi himself. The floundering BJP leadership in these states and the national strategists like Amit Shah perhaps thought that they can retrieve the lost ground by turning up the hate filled campaign that the Yogi carries out so well. They wanted to consolidate the Hindutva ‘advantage’ arrived at by encouraging dozens of incidents of mob lynchings in the name of cow protection and the repeated incidents of communal violence. The Ram Temple issue was also raked up during the campaign with saints and seers mobilised to give a call for building the Temple in Ayodhya. However, the results have delivered a slap in the face of such an incendiary campaign. The people have rejected this strategy, reminding one of the way BJP was shown the door in these very states in 1993, a year after the Babri Masjid demolition in 1992 and the ensuing tide of violence.

Dalit and Adivasi Anger at BJP
During Modi’s nearly five years at the helm, the continued neglect and, indeed, humiliation of Dalit and Adivasi communities too has played a rolein the defeat of BJP. It has drastically reduced the number of seats reserved for SC and ST in all three states and vote shares too have gone down in these seats. This is because of the relentless rise in atrocities on Dalits and Adivasis, the connivance in dilution of the Prevention of Atrocities Act (POA), the non-implementation of the Forest Rights Act (FRA), the slashing of fund allocation for Dalits and Adivasis under the special component plans and the refusal to either protect job reservation or extend it to the private sector.

In the elections to Lok Sabha, to be held in a few months’ time, what has happened in MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan will happen elsewhere too because there too, the people’s reaction will be the same to the same policies. In sum, it may be said that these elections are the beginning of the end of the Modi rule.

Courtesy: Newsclick.in

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BJP Down 180 Seats, Congress Up 162 In 3 Hindi-Heartland States; In Dalit, Adivasi Constituencies, BJP’s Worst Performance In A Decade

Wed, 12 Dec 2018 04:39:33 +0000

Mumbai: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost 180 seats that it won in 2013, and the Congress gained 162 across three state assemblies–Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh (MP) and Chhattisgarh–as results were declared on December 11, 2018, according to an IndiaSpend analysis of electoral data.

In 2013, the BJP won 377 seats and the Congress 118 in these three states. The BJP had no seats in Mizoram in 2013, and this is the first state election for Telangana, which was created in 2014.

This means the BJP lost 48% of the seats it won in 2013, and the Congress gained 137%.

The difference in vote share between the two parties in Rajasthan and MP, both heartland Hindi-speaking states, was much closer, as we will explain; Congress vote shares in Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh rose by 6, 4, and 3 percentage points since 2013.

f 678 seats in MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram–which account for a sixth or 15.2% of India’s population–the Congress was ahead in 305 seats (304 wins and one lead), and the BJP had won 199 seats, as of 9am on December 12, 2018.

#MadhyaPradesh, #Rajasthan & #Chhattisgarh accounted for 21% of #BJP vote share in 2014 general elections; today’s #assemblyelections2018 results could impact party’s position in 2019 elections. #Results2018 https://t.co/TnYrrBG1hq
— IndiaSpend (@IndiaSpend) December 11, 2018

Mizoram and Telangana were won by regional parties, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) and the Mizo National Front, respectively. While the Congress won Chhattisgarh with 67 of 90 seats (from 39 in 2013) and Rajasthan by winning 99 of 199 (from 21 in 2013), MP went to the wire with the Congress on 114 (from 58 in 2013) and the BJP on 109 (from 165 in 2013).

Some highlights of our analysis :

The Congress was 0.1 percentage point ahead of the BJP in MP. In

Rajasthan, it led by 0.5 percentage point.

In Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh, where more than 70% of the population lives in rural areas, farm distress appears to have played a significant role but not in Telangana, which is 61% rural and exhibits similar distress, as we reported on December 6, 2018.
In Chhattisgarh, MP and Rajasthan, where 43%, 36%, and 30%, respectively, of seats are reserved for scheduled tribes and scheduled castes, except for Rajasthan, the BJP recorded its worst performance in a decade, while the Congress recorded its best.

Wafer thin vote-share margins in MP, Rajasthan
A strong wave of anti-incumbency swept through MP and Chhattisgarh–states where the BJP had been in power for 15 years since 2003–and Rajasthan, where no party has stayed in power for more than one term.

In MP, the vote shares of the BJP and the Congress, were 41.2% and 41.3%, respectively. In 2013, the comparable vote shares were 45% and 36%.

In Rajasthan, the BJP and Congress vote shares were 38.8% and 39.3%, respectively. In 2013, the BJP vote share was 45% and the Congress 33%.

In Chhattisgarh, the BJP and Congress recorded vote shares of 32.9% and 43% respectively. In 2013, this was 41% for the BJP and 40% for the Congress.

Farm distress, it appears, played a key role in the BJP’s slide
n November 29, 2018, over 100,000 farmers from across India marched to Delhi to demand a special session of parliament to address India’s farming crisis. Nearly 80% or 20.4 million people in the Chhattisgarh, 66% or 69 million in Rajasthan and 55% or 73 million in MP–the Indian average is 47%–are engaged in agriculture, indicating that farm distress may have played a significant role in electoral outcomes.

Madhya Pradesh: Despite a 10.9% annual agricultural growth rate over eight years to 2015 (India’s highest), the state witnessed farmer agitations, IndiaSpend reported on November 30, 2018. As many as 1,321 farmers committed suicide in MP in 2016, the highest since 2013, according to government data. While farm suicides dropped 10% nationwide, MP witnessed a 21% increase two years to 2016.

f 230 seats polled for the MP assembly, the Congress won 114 seats, of which 79 seats were previously held by BJP, according to leads at 7.30 pm on December 11, 2018.

Chhattisgarh: In a state considered to be India’s rice bowl, 1,344 farmers–519 a year or, more than one per day–committed suicide in Chhattisgarh over 30 months to October 30, 2017, the Hindu Business Line reported on December 21, 2017.
As of 9am on December 12, 2018, the Congress had won 67 seats and was leading in one, of which 36 seats were previously held by the BJP, according to the latest election results.

Rajasthan: As in MP, farmers in Rajasthan also complained about not being able to meet costs, although the government increased the price at which it bought the kharif (monsoon) and rabi (winter) harvests.
Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje announced in February, 2018 that debts up to Rs 50,000 would be waived, but farmers demanded a full waiver, which the Congress promised.
f 199 seats in the Rajasthan assembly, the Congress had won 99 seats. Of this, 75 seats were previously held by the BJP.

Telangana: In the four-and-a-half years since it won statehood, Telangana reported acute farm distress, with 2,190 farmers committing suicide–more than one every day–according to data from the state government’s police department, IndiaSpend reported on December 6, 2018.
ver 89% of rural agrarian households in Telangana are in debt–the Indian average is 52%–the second highest proportion in India after Andhra Pradesh, according to the Telangana Social Development Report published by the state government.
Yet, the TRS won 88 (48%) of 119 seats, surpassing the 60 required for a majority. Chief minister K. Chandrashekar Rao, who has been in power since the state’s formation in 2014, will return for a second term.

Over a third of BJP’s losses recorded in SC/ ST seats
Across Chhattisgarh, MP and Rajasthan, the BJP lost 57 or 34% of 170 seats reserved for scheduled castes, or dalits, and scheduled tribes.

Chhattisgarh
In Chhattisgarh, where 31% of the population is Adivasi, or from scheduled tribes–the highest concentration among India’s large states–the BJP’s popularity in 29 tribal-dominated constituencies further dwindled from 2013.
Seats for scheduled castes (13% of the population) and scheduled tribes together account for 43% of the state assembly’s 90 seats.
As of 7 pm on December 11, 2018, the incumbent party–in power for 15 years to 2018, with Raman Singh the party’s longest-running chief minister–was leading in eight reserved seats (28%), three fewer than in 2013 when it had won 11. In 2008, the BJP had won 19 scheduled-tribe seats.

In contrast, the Congress retained its lead over 18 seats, equalling the number it had won in 2013 and increasing by eight the seats it won in 2008.
In an indication of tribal disaffection against incumbent MLAs, in 12 of 29 seats reserved for STs in Chhattisgarh, BJP lost eight and the Congress lost four seats. Janata Congress Chhattisgarh won one seat.
The BJP failed to retain its hold over Chhattisgarh’s assembly constituencies reserved for scheduled castes. Of 10 seats reserved for scheduled castes, the party was leading in two, down from nine it had won in 2013, latest results showed. The Congress was leading in seven, up one from 2013.

These election results echo our findings from travelling across India’s tribal heartland in November 2018. The state’s failure to settle forest land claims led to tension roiling in tribal dominated areas, IndiaSpend reported on November 20, 2018, and this was reflected in the performance of incumbents in scheduled-tribe constituencies.

Of 887,665 title claims, Chhattisgarh’s government issued 416,359 titles across 2.7 million acres, which is 7.8% of the state’s area or 18% of its forest area, according to our analysis of title data. Experts further believe nearly half the tribal population has not even demanded their rights yet. Community forest rights–central to the agency of Adivasi tribes, as they recognise the authority of the gram sabha (village council) to protect, manage and conserve traditional forests–account for 4.4% or 18,178 of the titles distributed.

Madhya Pradesh
In MP, where tribals account for 21% of the population and scheduled castes 16%, the BJP recorded its worst performance in these constituencies, losing 25 of 82 reserved seats, or 36% of assembly seats. The Congress gained 26 scheduled caste and scheduled tribe seats over 2013, its best performance in a decade.

As of 7 pm on December 11, 2018, the BJP was leading in 21 of 47 seats reserved for STs, losing its hold over 10 seats from 2013, when it had won 31. In 2008, the BJP had won 29 seats.

The Congress has won 23 seats–after winning 15 seats in 2013, and 17 in 2008.

Of 35 seats reserved for scheduled castes, the BJP won 13 seats, 15 down from the 28 it had won in 2013 and 25 in 2008. The Congress won 22 of these seats, up from four in 2013 and nine in 2008.

Rajasthan
In Rajasthan, 59 seats or 30% of 200 assembly seats, are reserved for scheduled castes and scheduled tribes.

Among 34 scheduled-caste seats, the BJP won 14, down 18 from 2013, when it won 32 seats, highest in a decade. In 2008, it won 14 of these seats.

After losing all seats reserved for scheduled castes in 2013, the Congress won 18 in 2018, equalling its 2008 performance.

Of 25 seats reserved for Adivasis, as of 7 pm on December 11, 2018, the BJP was leading in 12 constituencies, the Congress in 11. The BJP is down six seats over the previous election, when it won 18 scheduled-tribe seats. In 2013, the Congress won four seats reserved for Adivasis.

(Saldanha is an assistant editor and Paliath is an analyst with IndiaSpend. With inputs by Abhivyakti Banerjee, Anmol Alphonso and Sejal Singh, interns with IndiaSpend.)

Courtesy: India Spend

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