As many as 5,494 people in 18 villages have been across Dhemaji and Lakhimpur have been affected by flash floods in Assam with the rivers Brahmaputra and Jia Bharali flowing above danger levels, The Sentinel reported.

Roads have also been damaged in Chachar and Dhemaji and damage to bridges and culverts have also been reported. Five relief camps for affected persons have been opened up and currently 158 people are taking shelter in them.

Updates by the Central Water Commission Official Flood Forecast stated that the Brahmaputra River was flowing above normal at Beki Road Bridge in Barpeta, Sivasagar, Numaligarh and Neamatighat while the Jai Bharali was over normal in Sonitpur.

ধেমাজি জিলাত জিয়াঢল নৈৰ বাঢ়নী পানীয়ে বিস্তীৰ্ণ অঞ্চল বুৰাই পেলাইছে ।#AssamFlood#AIRPics : Dilip pic.twitter.com/I6m54NkZLi

— AIR News Guwahati (@airnews_ghy) June 17, 2020

With the monsoon soon approaching, a mobile awareness drive on preparing for floods in the context of #COVID19 has been launched in Assam by Deputy Commissioner Dhemaji , DDMA, Rural Volunteer Centre & supported by #UNICEF.

This will travel across the state to raise awareness. pic.twitter.com/s5XnYjzAjZ

— UNICEF India (@UNICEFIndia) June 18, 2020

Updates by the Assam State Disaster Management Authority (ASDMA) states that as on June 18, 2020, Dhemaji, Lakhimpur and Narayanpur revenue circles have been affected. The number of villages affected in Dhemaji are 18, in Jonai are 12 and in Narayanpur are 109.

Due to the floods, a total of 8,070 people – 5,305 in Dhemaji, 2,183 in Jonai and 582 in Narayanpur have been affected. The total crop area affected is 1,932 hectares – 920 in Dhemaji, 903 in Jonai and 109 in Narayanpur. A total of big 2,173 animals have been affected, 1,352 small animals have been affected and 578 poultry has been affected.

In terms of relief, 6.80 quintals of rice, 1.11 quintals of dal and 0.35 quintals of salt has been distributed to the affected persons.

Early this month, at least 20 people in Chachar, Karimganj and Hailakandi were killed and seven were injured in landslides that were triggered by heavy rains in Assam’s Barak Valley. The District Collector of Chachar had said that an ex-gratia of Rs. 28 lakh was distributed among the family members of those deceased and injured.

Related:

Floods affect 30,000 in Assam as Covid-19 cases continue to rise
Assam’s flood affected victims still waiting for compensation

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There is evidence that climate change will worsen socio-economic and political disparity in the region as those in power will get to decide who gets the limited resources and how much, the report co-authored by researchers Pernilla Nordqvist and Florian Krampe while working for the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), has said.

“The climate-conflict linkage primarily plays out in contexts that are already vulnerable to climate change and violence, and where income is highly dependent on agriculture and fishing,” Nordqvist told IndiaSpend in an email.

Human activities have already caused warming of 1.0 degree Celsius as compared to pre-industrial times, according to the latest report of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). By 2030, or latest by mid-century, global warming is likely to reach 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Close to 2.5 billion people live in South and South-East Asia, where poverty rates have been declining substantially, thanks to years of strong economic growth in countries such as India. However, the region is also prone to the fallouts of climate change, with glaciers in the Himalayas melting and several island-countries facing rising sea levels. Floods, cyclones, heat waves and droughts are now a frequent occurrence and are expected to intensify in the coming years.

“The region is highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change and also has a recent history of political violence,” Krampe told IndiaSpend.

Nordqvist and Krame examined 2,000 peer-reviewed studies on the relationship between climate change and conflict and narrowed down on 21 of the most authoritative works for their report, which was published in September 2018.

Their findings from India show that rebel groups and government forces both find recruitment easier when drought is around the corner.

The IPCC report also adds that climate-related risks to livelihoods, food security, health, water supply and human security are projected to increase as the planet warms by 1.5 degrees. With a 2-degree rise, the risks will intensify.

In some areas affected by the Naxalite conflict, the worsening of livelihood conditions has been related to the increased intensity of ongoing civil conflicts. During a drought, or a potential drought, there is an increased risk that rebels and government actors recruit or cooperate with civilians in exchange for livelihood and provision of food.

Naxalites could use climate-related events to gain power in an ongoing conflict, and rebel groups more generally could increase their use of violence against civilians to ensure their groups’ food security, according to the report.

“They violently remove local farmers from their land to ensure enough cropland and agricultural supplies for their own use. The risk of violence seems especially high in rural areas, where government control is scarce and the local population is dependent on the support or protection of rebels or other armed actors,” Nordqvist said.

As climate change pushes up migration, it introduces the possibility of riots in urban areas over resources, the report said. Highlighting the case of riots in Tripura in northeastern India, it said the effects will be most felt in areas where there are already low levels of socio-political stability.

“Many of the climate change problems are trans-national. The Brahmaputra, for example, flows through three countries and is seeing frequent flooding. There is no question that countries will need to cooperate and tensions like the ones between countries India and Pakistan will make this difficult,” Krampe said.

There is some research on the relationship between climate change and conflict in countries such as India, Bangladesh and Pakistan, the report said, adding that there is little understanding of how climate change could be driving conflict in places such as Afghanistan and Myanmar.

Elsewhere in South-East Asia, in some coastal areas of Indonesia the reduced income opportunities from fishing have been linked to a rise in piracy-related activities.

But the impact does not end there.

In Pakistan, for instance, the Islamist group Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JUD) was able to increase its stronghold in Sindh province after the group participated in relief activities following extreme floods.

The IPCC report also warns that those living along coasts and populations dependent on agriculture will be the worst hit by climate change, which will push up poverty rates in coastal areas and in developing countries.

However, “Not everyone affected by climate change will join a rebel group but this also relates to the failure of the governments to respond to disasters,” Krampe said.

At the same time, not all areas will see conflict in the face of climate change. Some might even see a greater cooperation in the aftermath of a natural disaster. These regional dynamics are evolving, however, and their contours will only become clearer with time.

“There is an urgent need for a climate change risk assessment in South Asia and South-East Asia as right now we simply do not know the risks involved,” Krampe said.

(Disha Shetty is a Columbia Journalism School-IndiaSpend reporting fellow covering climate change.)

This article was first published on indiaspend.com
 

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