Budget Housing | SabrangIndia News Related to Human Rights Mon, 14 Apr 2025 06:10:12 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.2.2 https://sabrangindia.in/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Favicon_0.png Budget Housing | SabrangIndia 32 32 Whither PMAY? Affordable housing in decline as Indian real estate shifts focus to premium segments https://sabrangindia.in/whither-pmay-affordable-housing-in-decline-as-indian-real-estate-shifts-focus-to-premium-segments/ Mon, 14 Apr 2025 06:10:12 +0000 https://sabrangindia.in/?p=41124 A leading property consultant that seeks to provide comprehensive real estate services to developers, corporates, financial institutions, and the government has reported that, while housing prices have risen between 10–34% across India’s top seven cities over the past year, the once-robust supply of affordable housing has “tottered and dwindled.” In an in-depth analysis of real […]

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A leading property consultant that seeks to provide comprehensive real estate services to developers, corporates, financial institutions, and the government has reported that, while housing prices have risen between 10–34% across India’s top seven cities over the past year, the once-robust supply of affordable housing has “tottered and dwindled.”

In an in-depth analysis of real estate in Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Pune, the National Capital Region (NCR), and the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), in a series of reports it has sent to Counterview as email alert, the consultant Anarock states that NCR and Bengaluru have recorded the highest jumps in housing prices—34% and 20%, respectively.

According to Anarock, average prices in the seven cities collectively have risen from INR 7,550 per sq. ft. at the end of Q1 2024 to INR 8,835 per sq. ft. by the end of Q1 2025. However, at the same time, the annual supply share of affordable homes has declined—from 40% in 2018 to 16% in 2024.

The reason, says Anarock, is that the target clientele of affordable homes, consisting of “blue-collar workers, lower-paid workforces, and those just starting out in their careers, were severely cash-strapped,” leading to a situation where “buying homes did not feature among their immediate priorities.”

According to data released by Anarock, in 2018, cities like Pune, Kolkata, Chennai, and NCR were witnessing a consistently “high supply of such homes, riding on stimuli such as lower GST rates and tax breaks.”

Defining affordable housing as units priced under INR 40 lakh, the consultant comments that, judging by their sagging sales and supply in India over the past few years, now “it is easy to forget that this segment was once the housing industry’s veritable poster child,” which Indian real estate developers took “very seriously, regularly engaging with their architects to design smaller units to contain prices and ensure sales continuity.”

Pointing out that this trend peaked when the Union government in 2015 made “concerted efforts” to promote affordable housing via the ‘Housing for All’ programme under the Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana – PMAY (Urban), Anarock says the government at that time announced “many attractive incentives for buyers and developers of such housing.”

In fact, “the affordable housing story took on an appealingly patriotic ‘nation-building’ sheen, and even big-brand developers got into the fray…”

Noting that things changed during the pandemic when the demand for “larger and multi-functional homes with a comprehensive spread of lifestyle amenities” surged, Anarock says the demand shifted to houses that could effectively serve “as both residential facilities and offices… This trend continues even today, and essentially small-sized affordable housing plays no role in it.”

At the same time, it says, “at the developers’ end, constantly rising input costs—comprising land, labour, and construction materials (compounded by the low profit margins of affordable housing and the withdrawal of all relevant fiscal benefits)—caused their previous enthusiasm for affordable housing to dwindle. Instead, they turned their focus to what was and continues to sell well: bigger units with good lifestyle amenities.”

The result is that today, Bengaluru is “devoid of any supply in this segment. Hyderabad and Chennai are seeing only a minimal 2% supply share. The only cities with any sizeable activity in this segment are Kolkata and MMR. In both these cities, nearly 31% of the total upcoming supply is priced below INR 40 lakh. NCR has witnessed a drastic reduction in its share of affordable housing, falling from 62% in 2020 to only 11% in 2024.”

Ironically, despite the sharp downward trend in affordable housing, Anarock research suggests the real estate sector remained a dominant contributor in 2024 in fundraising via qualified institutional placements (QIPs), “both in terms of capital raised and the number of issues.” Notably, 2024 saw twice the number of QIP issues as the previous year. In fact, the sector “recorded the highest number of issues in a single year” in 2024.

However, Anarock regrets, “Skyrocketing residential prices, coupled with geopolitical headwinds, have slowed the Indian housing market’s bull-run in Q1 2025. Latest Anarock data finds that the year’s first quarter saw sales drop 28% across the top seven cities compared to the same period in 2024. Approximately 93,280 units were sold in Q1 2025 in the top seven cities, in sharp contrast to all-time high sales of over 1.30 lakh units in Q1 2024.”

Noting that approximately 93,280 units were sold in Q1 2025—a 26% decrease over Q1 2024—Anarock suggests the main reason for this was, “Average residential property prices across the top seven cities saw a significant jump in the last one year—ranging between 10–34% in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024.”

“This,” it insists, “was primarily due to steep new supply additions in the luxury and ultra-luxury segment, and overall strong demand. NCR and Bengaluru recorded the highest annual price jump of over 34% and 20%, respectively.”

In fact, Anarock asserts, private equity (PE) investments in the Indian real estate sector have shown signs of softening. Offering details in its report titled Anarock Capital Flux FY25 Annual Edition, it reveals that PE investment volumes in Indian real estate “have steadily declined over the past five years, dropping from USD 6.4 billion in FY21 to approximately USD 3.7 billion in FY25.”

This represents a 43% decrease from FY21 levels, primarily driven by reduced foreign investor activity amid heightened global macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical volatility,” Anarock underlines, adding that this is accompanied by a significant increase in “concentration of capital in fewer, larger transactions.”

Thus, says Anarock, in FY25, the top 10 deals accounted for 81% of total PE investment value, up from 69% in FY24. This spike is largely attributed to the mega Reliance–ADIA–KKR hybrid deal, which alone contributed to ~42% of FY25’s total value.

The “mega Reliance–ADIA–KKR hybrid deal” refers to a financing transaction in which Reliance Industries secured a blended capital infusion from two heavyweight global investors, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR), an American global private-equity and investment company.

Stating that “FY25 saw a significant deviation in funding structure, with hybrid deals surging to 42% of total PE capital—primarily due to the Reliance-ADIA-KKR transaction,” Anarock notes that “logistics and warehousing” have emerged “as the clear frontrunner in FY25, attracting 48% of PE funding, the highest in five years.”

As for the residential sector, Anarock says its average deal size dropped to USD 117 million (Q2–Q4 FY25) from USD 233 million (Q1 FY23–Q4 FY25). Offices also saw a “steep decline in investment”—USD 806 million in FY25 versus USD 2.2 billion in FY24.

However, retail “continues to thrive on strong consumer demand,” with mall operators like DLF, Nexus, and Phoenix expanding aggressively.

Courtesy: CounterView

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Budget fine print: A Rs 2-crore home in Mumbai could qualify for affordable housing subsidies https://sabrangindia.in/budget-fine-print-rs-2-crore-home-mumbai-could-qualify-affordable-housing-subsidies/ Thu, 09 Feb 2017 07:45:58 +0000 http://localhost/sabrangv4/2017/02/09/budget-fine-print-rs-2-crore-home-mumbai-could-qualify-affordable-housing-subsidies/ By defining affordable housing by size rather than cost, has the government defeated the very purpose of the measure? The Union Budget presented on February 1 has been described as a game-changer for the struggling housing sector, having decreed infrastructure status for the affordable segment. But lost in the scramble of ra-ra reviews is the […]

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By defining affordable housing by size rather than cost, has the government defeated the very purpose of the measure?

The Union Budget presented on February 1 has been described as a game-changer for the struggling housing sector, having decreed infrastructure status for the affordable segment. But lost in the scramble of ra-ra reviews is the fact that the definition of affordable has been so stretched that a Rs 2-crore home in Mumbai or a Rs 1.5-crore flat in Bengaluru will now fit this category, allowing hordes of developers to cash in on the subsidies and incentives that come with catering to this segment. It may also be cruel irony for the 20 million families searching for a roof in the country, 95% of whom cannot afford anything that costs more than Rs 10 lakhs.

The housing sector was a focus area for Finance Minister Arun Jaitley’s Budget proposals. An entire chapter in the explanatory notes to the Finance Bill 2017, titled Measures for Promoting Affordable Housing and Real Estate Sector, was dedicated to it. The minister enlarged the definition of what is affordable housing by introducing the concept of carpet area (the area enclosed within the walls), overriding the dubious builder definition of built-up area (carpet area plus outer walls, balcony and other common areas). Thus, a carpet area of 30 square meters in the four big metros of New Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata, and of 60 square meters in smaller cities make for affordable units. And with this, the actual usable area has increased the benchmark by as much as 20% to 50%.

Other Budget proposals included giving developers tax relief on unsold stock as they will now need to pay capital gains (the profit earned from the sale of property) only in the year the project is completed rather than at the start of the project. Also, the holding period for capital gains tax for immovable property has been reduced from three years to two years, and developers can avail of a tax break of one year after receiving the completion certificate for unsold stock.
 

A tall order

Where is this all coming from? These Budget proposals are undoubtedly a sign of desperation where the government has chewed off more than it can deliver. The country faces an estimated housing shortage of 18 million units, which if not tackled on a war-footing will balloon to about 30 million units by 2030. It was in this context of delivering “development and growth” that Prime Minister Narendra Modi unveiled the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojna on June 25, 2015, promising “housing for all by 2022”. Even on paper, this is a tall order. A target of 20 million homes in six years translates into completing approximately three million units a year.

On the ground, the scheme has been a non-starter. Government data shows that in the first year up to July 15, 2016, just 19,255 housing units were completed. That month, Rao Inderjit Singh, minister of state for housing and urban poverty alleviation, conceded in a reply in Parliament that though 864 projects involving 7.3 lakh homes had been approved, work was in progress in only around one lakh of these, or less than 15% of the approvals. Again to put it in context, the government has to deliver three million (30 lakh) units a year to make good on its promise of housing for all. A far cry indeed.

It is not difficult to see the contours of the problem. Construction of the volume of houses envisaged through sarkari arms such as the Delhi Development Authority or the Maharashtra Housing and Area Development Authority is an impossibility considering the mobilisation capacity of these bodies and the red tape they are trapped in. The solution this Budget has fallen on is to harness the vast array of private developers. But the challenge before Jaitley is how to move a tribe of developers focused on upper-income housing projects to build homes for the poor and the marginalised.
 

Size over cost

Obviously, last year’s measures did not work. Budget 2016 had allowed 100% deduction for profits to housing projects building homes of up to 30 square meters in the four metros and 60 square meters in other cities. But these were based on built-up area, which aggregates and includes common areas as well in the cost of a flat and are seen as too small a unit by builders.

So, Jaitley this year stretched the definition by introducing the concept of carpet area that makes an affordable home up to 50% larger. However, by defining affordable housing by size rather than a cap on cost, has the government defeated the very purpose of the measure? A 30-square-meter carpet-area home in Mumbai or Delhi, with loading and exemptions, translates into a 500-square-foot one bedroom-hall-kitchen, while a 60-square-meter affordable unit in Bengaluru can be pushed up to a 1,000-square-foot two-bedroom house. At Rs 40,000 a square foot in Mumbai’s Parel area, the affordable unit could be sold at Rs 2 crores; or at Rs 15,000 a square foot, a budget home in Bengaluru could fetch Rs 1.5 crores for the builder.

“When I did the math of the size and value of homes builders can construct and still claim the slew of concessions at a round table after the Budget, I could see the gleam in the eye of several developers who saw a new opportunity,” said Pranay Vakil, founder of realty broking house Knight Frank India and now heading Praron Consultancy.
 

The incentives

The new, enlarged definition of affordable units will now be eligible for 100% deduction of profits and gains under Section 80-1BA of the Income Tax Act. And to add a sweetener, eligibility for claims under this section has extended the period of completion of these affordable projects from three years to five years.

“Besides the tax-free status, there are several other big concessions builders can avail of under ‘infrastructure’ status,” Vakil explained. “Bank capital will be available at 2% lower interest rates for infrastructure projects, and under this category, banks can advance a larger volume of funds. Builders can also access foreign capital through the external commercial borrowing route,” he added.

The only downside is that these concessions are available for entirely residential projects and builders will not be able to exploit mixed-use potential, as commercial area will be limited to 3% of the project cost. While greater access to cheaper bank and foreign finance will help clean the system, there is, equally, the danger of heavy misuse and of a lot of this affordable stock landing up in the possession of upper-income groups. “Those who want to bend the law can build projects that allow two adjacent flats to be clandestinely merged and sold as one to the same family,” warned Vakil.

Another interesting measure in the Budget proposals is the use of a capital gains concession to make it attractive for land-owning families on urban peripheries to merge and aggregate their farm land (or other lands) as part of development projects. Earlier, in joint venture agreements between landholder and developer, under Section 45 of the Income Tax Act, capital gains was charged in the year the land transfer took place. However, as per a new amendment, capital gains will be charged only at the end of the project, when the completion certificate is issued for the whole or part of the project. This will provide relief to landholders who were forced to pay up on notional gains as partners in a housing project at the start, whereas the bulk of the revenue from sale actually comes in towards the closure of the project. However, this provision is only applicable to individual or Hindu Undivided Family landholders and not corporates or other entities.
 

Home buyers left out

Significantly, the Budget has very little to offer as direct sops to the home buyer. For instance, it was expected that the maximum deduction of Rs 2 lakhs, when calculating income tax, paid as interest on a home loan of a self-occupied home, and the Rs 1.5-lakh cap on the principal amount paid under Section 80C, would be hiked substantially this year as relief to a populace suffering the pains of demonetisation. This did not come about.
The incentives are clearly loaded on the supply side, and designed to push builders to construct more and cheaper homes. Whether this will come about is yet to be seen.

On the other hand, a concession to the middle class that allowed losses incurred on account of ownership of house property to be set off against income has been substantially trimmed. This was a notional concession wherein a second home owner could load the loss of interest he could have earned from rental income as a deduction from his total earnings. This was an unlimited facility which has now been capped at a maximum deduction of Rs 2 lakhs.

Property experts said the finance minister also passed over an opportunity to correct the impractical provisions in Section 50 of the Income Tax Act, which are stymieing residential sales. Under this provision, inserted in 2003-’04, if the valuation of a property in the sale deed is less than the provisions of the circle rate / ready reckoner (the minimum value at which property can be sold or bought), which determine stamp duty, then for the purpose of capital gain, tax will be calculated at the government-designated rate.

This has become a huge overhang in recent days with property prices having fallen while the government-designated circle rates continue to be hiked to unrealistic levels to garner more revenue. Vakil gave the example of a South Mumbai house that sold for Rs 7 crores but for the computation of capital gain, a ready reckoner rate of Rs 9.1 crores was applied. “This is deterring sales and encouraging stagnation,” he said. “The situation is so ridiculous that when the new buyer wants to sell the flat again, the authorities will not apply the Rs 9.1-crore valuation to the flat but insist on taking the Rs 7-crore value in the instrument of sale.”

This article was first published on Scroll.in

 

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