Pre-election prep: Didi Ke Bolo and Constituency Manifestos

After a stinging defeat in the Lok Sabha polls, Trinamool Congress immediately roped in political statregist Prashant Kishor to map out damage control tactics. Under Kishor’s guidance, TMC approached the by-polls with a two-pronged strategy.

First, TMC started the “Didi ke Bolo” outreach programme which included a helpline number Bengalis could call to talk about their concerns. More than 250 party workers were engaged to ensure every grievance/suggestion reached separate buckets for all the government schemes for people and multiple trackers for each to keep an eye on how many issues have been resolved and the time taken. As a senior TMC leader told News18, “With the Didi Ke Bolo campaign, we managed to understand basic problems faced by the people at the grassroots level.”

Second, TMC chose to run campaigns specific to every constituency. Political tickets were given to local leaders instead of the party’s big names. Senior leaders like Rajib Banerjee and Suvendu Adhikari  were tasked with garnering support for the party with area level “micro campaigns.”

TMC then prepared constituency-specific manifestos on the basis of information, complaints and demands collected from local people through the Didike Bolo helpline. Concerns over NRC and citizenship were specifically addressed.

The TMC’s win in the three crucial assembly seats—Karimpur, Kaliaganj and Kharagpur Sadar— is a clear indication that the party’s efforts to retrieve its political ground in their state bore fruit.

Post-election: Doubling down on anti-NRC rhetoric

Telegraph India reported that the Trinamool Congress has decided to continue with its campaign against the NRC and play the development card to stem the erosion of the party’s support base, bolstered by its victory in three Assembly bypolls. After the party’s dual strategy of highlighting the NRC issue and organising on ground micro campaigns worked for the bypolls, TMC appears to be using the same strategy in north Bengal, it noted.

Since the bye-election, TMC heavyweights like Gautam Deb, Suvendu Adhikari, and Mausam Benazir Noor have made public appearances to speak out quell concerns on the NRC being applied in West Bengal.

Bengal tourism minister Gautam Deb held a meeting with residents of his Dabgram-Fulbari constituency on December 1 so as to appeal to them to stay calm over the NRC. Speaking to the people of Ashighar and Ghogomali, Deb said, “We will reach out to every resident living in and around Siliguri and tell them that we will never allow the BJP or the Centre to carry out the NRC in Bengal.”

In efforts to revive Trinamool’s support base, Deb had also held an administrative meeting a day before this meeting so as to review the progress of different government projects and schemes in his constituency. The Telegraph reported that the BJP has led in his Assembly segment by over 80,000 votes in the last Lok Sabha elections.

Transport minister and senior Trinamool leader Suvendu Adhikari spoke on similar lines on December 1 at a meeting in Kaliaganj convened by the party, The Telegraph reported.

Adhikari thanked voters and party supporters with folded hands while passing clear instructions to the workers. “You should not discriminate against people who didn’t vote for Trinamool. You have to ensure that all eligible people availed themselves of the state’s welfare schemes. This attitude would help you win the support of more people,” Adhikari told Trinamool workers.

On November 1, Trinamool chief Mausam Benazir Noor said in a leaders’ meeting, “We will conduct relay rallies against the NRC in all blocks of the district from December 9 to 11. After the rallies, there will be a public meeting in Malda on December 12 where state leaders would be present,” Noor said after the meeting.

BJP wising up

The Bharatiya Janata Party does appear to have come to terms with the anti-NRC rhetoric issue being the cause of their loss.

The saffron party first used the NRC as a major issue during the campaign for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in West Bengal. The TMC managed to turn the issue on its head by pointing to how two million people Hindu Bengalis were excluded from the provisional NRC. This helped them regain the Hindu vote. For example, the people from Talbagicha colony, a predominantly Hindu refugee colony that was set up in 1951, switched allegiances from BJP to TMC six months after they voted for BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, reported Times of India.

Despite BJP’s attempts to quell these concerns of their Hindu voter base with claims of the citizenship amendment bill acting a saffron filter that would protect them, the results speak for themselves. 

As Scroll.in notes, the West Bengal unit of the BJP has practically dropped the NRC as a campaign topic. “NRC is no longer an issue for us in West Bengal,” said state BJP president Dilip Ghosh. “We have never made it an issue,” he said.

To move from having the NRC cause in the Lok Sabha manifesto to this stance goes to show the party has learnt the need to address it with more tact.

Ghosh said the TMC misled the people of the state on the issue of National Register of Citizens (NRC). “Once the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill is passed in the Parliament, all doubts over NRC would cease to exist,” he added.

Related:

WB bye elections: TMC knocks the wind out of BJP, wins all three constituencies

Did NRC turn BJP’s electoral dreams to dust in Bengal?

TMC-BJP face off in crucial by-polls in Bengal

Amit Shah’s statements in Rajya Sabha incorrect, says TMC

Opposition builds, TMC joins JD-U against Citizenship (amendment) Bill in Parliament

Sonowal, Assam CM escapes in chopper as AASU protesters reach his home

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The ruling BJP meanwhile retained Ratabari of Barrak Valley, Sonari of upper Assam and Rangapara of Northern Assam. But, in the only the minority dominated constituency, where bye-election was held, AIUDF wrested the seat from Congress with a formidable margin. Blame is now being assigned for this huge embarrassment and many believe it lies squarely with Tarun Gogoi.

Just after publication of final NRC, Gogoi had said, “The updated NRC neither satisfied the Minority or Majority people… It is just like a waste paper.” On another occasion he said, “A huge number of Indian citizens have been excluded and many foreigners has been included in updated NRC. So, Congress will reject the NRC, if it comes to power.” These statements were perceived by many political watchers as untimely, unfair and immature. Neither the majority nor the minority communities could accept such statements. In fact minority populations were looking at the NRC as a solution for long standing jibes about being foreigners and hoped the NRC would settle the issue once and for all in Assam.

How BJP and AIUDF won the bye-election
In Ratabari Assembly constituency, BJP candidate Bijoy Malakar polled 68,416 votes against Congress Candidate Keshab Prashad Rajak. The Congress candidate polled 44,450 votes. In this situation BJP defeated Congress candidate by a margin of 23,982 votes. In 2016 Assembly election, in Ratabari Congress polled 29,449, BJP 53,975 and AIUDF polled 23,966 votes respectively. This time perfume merchant Badaruddin Azmal led AIUDF skipped off from contesting in Ratabari and such the party’s Muslim votes, which it polled in 2016 was equally divided between Congress and BJP. Thus, Congress could increase its votes by 15,000 and BJP increased its vote by 14,500 from their previous tally.

In Rangapara Assembly constituency of Northern Assam, the BJP candidate Rajen Borthakur defeated his opponent Congress candidate by a huge margin of 49,547 votes. The BJP candidate polled 78,235 votes against his Congress rival Kartik Kurmi’s 28,688 vote. In this bye-election CPI(M) candidate and eminent Trade Union leader Royel Soreng polled 5,899 Votes. In the Assembly election of 2016, BJP polled 51,597, AIUDF 13,281, Congress 28,606 and CPI(M) got 8,033 votes respectively. The tea tribes dominated constituency was a Congress bastion till 2006. In this bye-election, a portion of voters from tea Tribes and Bengali Hindus, returned to Congress fold, but the Muslim minority voters who voted for AIUDF and even the Congress in 2016, voted for BJP en masse.

In Sonari Assembly Constituency of upper Assam, BJP candidate Nabanita Handique defeated Congress Candidate Sushil Kumar Suri by a comfortable margin of 15,332 votes. The BJP polled 66,449 votes against 51,117 votes polled by Congress. But, it is matter of fact that, Sonari is the lone constituency where Muslim voters are minority with only four percent, where not only the margin of votes between BJP and Congress decreased, but the total votes of Congress increased and total votes of BJP decreased substantially from 2016. In 2016, the BJP candidate Tapan Kumar Gogoi polled 73,327 votes against Congress veteran Sarat Barkataky’s tally of 49,210 votes. It seems that in a straight contest between Congress and BJP total number of vote of Congress increased by only 2000 at a time when total number of vote of BJP decreased by about 7000. It is due to simple displeasure of voters with BJP. Due to this reason, the difference of vote between Congress and BJP decreased to 15,332 in this bye-election from 24,000 of 2016 Assembly election and 26,000 in respect of 2019 General election in Sonari Constituency under Jorhat Parliamentary constituency. At a time when, voters are feeling discomfort with BJP, the Congress leadership failed to return back them to Congress fold. So, the number of abstainee voters, as well as vote of NOTA increased in Sonari constituency.

The major jolt for Congress in this bye-election was the lone minority dominated seat went on poll is Jania in lower Assam. The Jania Assembly was once represented by former President of India, Mr Fakharuddin Ali Ahmed, former Deputy Speaker of Assam Legislative Assembly became epicentre of minority politics in Assam since 1985. The constituency was represented by legendry Minority leader, former Minister of Assam and former Member of Parliament A F Golam Osmani. The then United Minority Front (UMF), the first minority based political party in Assam, represented the constituency in consecutive third term from 1985-2001. In 2001, the sitting UMF MLA, Ashahaque Ali joined Congress and won for the second term in a Congress ticket in 2001. In 2006, the constituency was retained by Congress nominee Abdul Khaeque by a narrow margin of just 25 votes defeating his nearest rival and another newly born pro-minority Political Party AIUDF candidate Mujibur Rahman. But, in 2011, the constituency was retained by AIUDF, defeating Congress nominee Abdul Khaleque. In 2016, Congress Candidate Abdul Khaleque once again retained the seat, defeating sitting MLA and AIUDF candidate Hafiz Rafiqul Islam by a huge margin of about 29,000 votes. After three years, Congress nominee Abdul Khaleque and AIUDF candidate Hafiz Rafiqul Islam, again came face to face fight for the Barpeta parliamentary constituency election in April, 2019, when Congress candidate defeated the AIUDF nominee in Jania Assembly constituency by huge margin of about 40,000 votes and elected to parliament. In 2016, Congress polled 86,930 votes, BJP 6,067, AIUDF 57,194 and the CPI(M) polled just 1,976 votes in Jania Assembly constituency. But, in the bye-election, the result became just a reverse. The AIUDF candidate Hafiz Rafiqul Islam polled 81,764 votes against his nearest Congress rival and former President of All Assam Minority Student’s Union (AAMSU) Samsul Haque polled just 46,634 votes. Surprisingly enough that the BJP candidate Towfiqur Rahman polled 15,348 votes in the constituency dominated by 94% Muslim minority voters. The BJP candidate, an arch critics of Neo-Assamese Muslim and his party taking all policy decision against Muslim successed in harvesting more then two third of Muslim votes of the total number of votes it polled.

How the arithmetic works:
The BJP won the election in a very calculated way. In Jania alone, the BJP has enrolled more than 35,000 members in last three years, though the Government and the party in power, using hate speeches against this group of people. Upward from NRC to eviction and some Government policy decision, the main target of BJP is Neo-Assamese Muslim for polarisation politics of BJP. But, in certain aspects, the BJP, using its power, trying to find some young and educated people from this group and giving them some opportunity to engage themselves in some developmental work, where its own people can’t reach. In certain areas, the BJP and Sangh Pariwar are recruiting some educated Muslim youth and spending huge amounts of money to spread anger against progressive and democratic forces raising some basic issues of Muslims. They are looks like friends of Muslim society but their main objective is to alienate the Muslim people from mainstream of the society and more vigorously eliminate all progressive and democratic forces from the Muslim society. The way of their work is to either communalise the Muslim society or disconnect them form all democratic, progressive or rational forces. When these people lose all trust in left, democratic, progressive and secular forces, they motivate them to connect them with the party in power, irrespective of its ideology. This strategy appears to have worked in this bye-election in Assam at a time BJP is marginally losing its influence among its traditional vote bank.
 

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