The data, however, suggest a more nuanced picture. In various assembly elections since its defeat in the 2014 general elections, the Congress has actually improved its strike rate in terms of number of seats won per seats contested, although it has contested fewer seats. Not only that, it has also improved its vote share.
 
What the statistics say
 
The most appropriate metric for evaluating the performance of a political party and its “CEO” is its win percentage and vote share. Ten states–Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Bihar, Delhi, Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, UP and Punjab–have had a state election since the 2014 general election, not including the smaller ones such as Goa and Manipur.
 
These 10 states account for nearly 60% (317/543) of all Lok Sabha seats.
 
During the 2014 general election, the Congress party effectively contested in 1,544 assembly segments–parts of Lok Sabha constituencies equivalent to assembly constituencies–across these 10 states and won a mere 194, a winning percentage of 13%.
 
In subsequent state elections in these 10 states, the Congress party contested in 1,032 assembly constituencies across these states and won 258–a winning percentage of 25%.
 
Put simply, the Congress doubled its win rate between the 2014 general election and the subsequent state elections.
 
In the 2014 election, 20 of every 100 voters (weighted by size of the state) in these 10 states voted for the Congress. Post-2014, 30 out of every 100 voters voted for the Congress, an increase of 10 percentage points in vote share.
 

Source: IndiaSpend analysis of Election Commission of India data
*Weighted average vote share by size of state
 
In eight out of these 10 states, the Congress has won more assembly segments post-2014 than it did in the 2014 elections (when considering parliamentary performance in assembly segments to break down voting patterns). Its vote share increased in six out of these 10.
 
The charts below show the Congress’ vote share and seats won in the 2014 general election and the subsequent assembly election in each state. A triangle inside the box indicates that the Congress improved its performance post-2014 in that state.
 
Source: IndiaSpend analysis of Election Commission of India data
 
Arithmetically, it is hard to make the case that the Congress is in worse shape today than it was in 2014. The numbers clearly show that the Congress has doubled its win percentage and improved its vote share by 50% since 2014.
 
To be sure, the Congress’ improved electoral performance is largely on the back of opportune alliances. But a decision to swallow pride and ally with another party is also a political strategy.
 
It can also be argued that the party’s performance in 2014 was so miserable that the only way from there was up.
 
Either way, only time will tell if the Congress needs a new life or a coffin, but arguments on either side should not lose sight of the data.
 

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Fariduddin Khan is a resident of Sureli village in Umreth taluka of Anand district. He is also a member of the Umreth taluka Panchayat. About 50 per cent of Sureli’s residents are Hindu and the other 50 per cent are Muslim. There was no communal problem in Sureli throughout the troubled period in 2002 and it became the centre of a major relief camp in the area.

When trouble started brewing in the village of Odh, seven km away, a few Muslims fled to Umreth. There, they told the district Congress president of the Minorities Cell, Fariduddin Khan about the terrible conditions in Odh. At about 7 a.m. on March 2, 2002, Faridbhai received an emergency call from Odh. The Hindu population of the village had turned against their Muslim neighbours and there was no chance of survival. Dhiru Khan Rehmu Khan, a resident of Odh, says that Faridbhai was their last hope but they were sure that he would help them. Faridbhai called an emergency meeting of the Muslims of Sureli to decide how the Muslims in Odh could be saved. However, no one volunteered for the rescue mission. Faridbhai decided to take the lead and along with a friend, Bismillah Khan Akbar Khan, left for Odh with two tempos. He was on good terms with the DySP of the area and asked him for police protection, which was provided.

Faridbhai managed to reach Odh within an hour of receiving the call for help. There, he realised that the entire Muslim neighbourhood was burning. The chowk in front of the dargah was the only area still untouched, mainly because all the Muslims had gathered there and the Hindus found it difficult to approach. He parked his tempos in the chowk and piled in as many Muslims as he could. Thus, he was able to take about 600 Muslims out of the village. When the Hindus realised that Muslims were being rescued in the tempo they threw stones at it and even chased it over a distance. But Faridbhai was able to outmanoeuvre them and take these Muslims safely to Sureli. However, there was still a sizeable number of Muslims trapped in Odh. He had planned on making another rescue trip to Odh but the Hindus, realising that the Muslims could be rescued by road, blocked it with tree trunks and huge stones, making a second rescue operation impossible. And, in one of the worst instances of violence in Gujarat in 2002, 27 Muslims were burnt alive in Odh the next day.

Archived from Communalism Combat, June 2004 Year 10   No. 98, Cover Story 15

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