As per the poll predictions of Eedina, the Indian National Congress party, which is also governing the state after winning the assembly elections, will continue to maintain its lead in Karnataka over others in the Lok Sabha elections. As per the predictions, Congress party will be winning 15 seats will the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA will be able to win 13 seats in the state. It is also essential to note that as per the predictions of Eedina which were released prior to the beginning of the election, it had been alleged that Congress party might be able to secure anywhere between 13 to 18 seats, with a vote share of 46.4%.

If the predictions of the Eedina hold true, the BJP-JD(S) alliance will be able to secure 10 to 13 seats, with a vote share of 44.27%. It is also essential to note that the poll predictions of Eedina for the state assembly elections, which had predicted a win for the Congress Party, had held to be accurate.

Eedina has also released their predictions for the following states:

For the state of Telangana, Eedina has predicted that Congress will be able to win a total of 10 seats while BJP will win 4 to 5 seats and BRS to win 2-3 seats.

For Tamil Nadu, a state where BJP has been trying to making their significant entry, Eedina has projected the NDA to be able to win 1 seat while the INDIA alliance has been predicted to bag 38 seats.

For the state of Kerala, which is another state that has consistently opposed the saffron party and their politics based on communalism, INDIA is forecasted to win 19 seats and NDA only 1 seat.

The complete video can be viewed here:

#Breaking #ExitPoll #LokSabaElections2024

The most accurate Eedina survey about Karnataka, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Kerala came out

In-fact Eedina throws a challenge to all exit polls and to Axis My India’s Pradeep Gupta specifically keeping Karnataka in context.

According… pic.twitter.com/vTPZpjdBGr

— Swati Dixit ಸ್ವಾತಿ (@vibewidyou) June 3, 2024

 Eedina’s challenge to the exit polls:

In addition to releasing their poll findings, Eedina had also sternly denounced the exit polls that had been released by mainstream media houses, some of which are surveys like India Today – Axis My India, News24 – Today’s Chanakya, and Republic-Matrize, and had rather demanded for them to discuss their methodology in collecting the data on which their findings are based upon.

As per a video uploaded on YouTube, Eedina‘s research team members Dr Vasu and Bharath, raised concerns behind the surveys upon which the mainstream media are basing their findings and releasing the exit polls. The concerns raised by the team of Eedina was based upon their own recent surveys in Karnataka, through which the team has alleged that the sampling methodologies adopted as well as the outcomes of these exit polls do not align with Karnataka’s demographics and voter preferences. The aforementioned realisation then prompted for the Eedina team to challenge the exit poll results. It is essential to note that most of the surveys released by the mainstream media has shown BJP winning the Lok Sabha elections of 2024 in the state of Karnataka quite comfortably.

Additionally, Eedina has also raised a call for increasing transparency in the exit polls by promoting the agencies to release their sample size, sampling methodology, or the demographic breakdown of their samples. As per Eedina, following the practice of full disclosure will then enable the people to realise the sampling biases that might have crawled in during the surveys. Some of the concerns highlighted by Eedina were under-sampling of women and the less educated voters.

As per Eedina, by ensuring and promoting transparency, the accuracy of these exit polls can then be checked and the public, which could have been misled or influence by biased exit polls, can then re-evaluate their perception.

The complete video can be viewed here:

Related:

FactChecked: 2024 Lok Sabha exit polls reveal conflicting predictions

DB Live predictions cast shadow on BJP’s aspirations on gaining majority in Lok Sabha elections, predictions 255-291 seats for INDIA bloc

Why Indian exit polls are often biased and favour the ruling party

Hasty exit poll conducted during the seventh phase of voting in Bengal

The post Eedina predicts 15 seats for Congress in Karnataka in contradiction to the mainstream surveys; challenges other exit pollsters on their accuracy appeared first on SabrangIndia.

According to the Deshbandhu Exit Poll, conducted in association with Electline of India agency, the NDA is forecasted to secure a total of 207-241 seats, whereas the INDIA bloc might win between 255-290 seats.

State-wise predictions of key states:

Uttar Pradesh: As per the findings of the poll, in the state of Uttar Pradesh, a close contest will take place between the NDA, which will be potentially securing seats between 46 to 48, and the INDIA bloc, comprising the Samajwadi Party and Congress projected to be winning 32-34 seats.

Maharashtra: In the state of Maharashtra, the exit poll forecasts 28-30 seats for the MVA (INDIA) and 18-20 seats for the Mahayuti (NDA). For Karnataka, the poll showed a surprising advantage for the Congress, predicting 18-20 seats, while the BJP and JD(S) alliance is expected to secure 8-10 seats.

Another detailed analysis of seat predictions of Maharashtra can be viewed here.

Bihar: In Bihar, the INDIA bloc is predicted to win 24-26 seats, compared to 14-16 seats for the NDA. In Madhya Pradesh, DB Live projects 24-26 seats for the BJP, with the Congress winning a mere 3-5 seats.

West Bengal: The exit poll also predicted a sweep for Mamata Banerjee-led TMC in West Bengal, with the party winning 26-28 seats, while the BJP is expected to get 11-13 seats.

Rajasthan: In the state of Rajasthan, the poll showed the BJP winning 17-19 seats, and the INDIA bloc securing 6-8 seats.

Tamil Nadu: The exit poll numbers also showed that in Tamil Nadu, the INDI alliance is likely to win 37 to 39 seats and NDA to win only 1.

Telangana: For the state of Telangana, the poll number showed 10-20 seats being won by Congress, 0-2 by BRS and 3-5 by BJP.

Punjab: As per the predictions, none of the 17 seats of Punjab will be won by the BJP, with 6-8 being projected to be won by the AAP and 5-7 by the Congress Party.

Karnataka: In the south state of Karnataka, where many have been predicting a landslide win for the BJP, DB Live has predicted a mere 8-10 seats falling in its bag, and the INDIA bloc winning 18-20 seats

It is essential to note that the exit poll shows a stupendous win for BJP led NDA in the states of Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat.

The complete video of the poll can be viewed here:

The poll results of DB Live were also shared by Congress leader Luv Dutta on ‘X’ (formerly Twitter) while asserting that the predictions of DB Live will be the actual number of seats that the INDIA bloc will be securing.

These are the exact numbers that you all will see on 4th June.
This #ExitPoll will come out to be true.#IndiaAlliance will form the Govt on the 4th of June. pic.twitter.com/SK7RpUi1Nu

— Luv Datta #INC (@LuvDatta_INC) June 1, 2024

Notably, the Congress party had, before the exit polls had even been released, refuse to take part in any such discussion. Many Congress leaders, including Jairam Ramesh, DK Shivakumar, have also issued statements dismissing the predictions of the mainstream poll surveys.

During the Karnataka Legislative Assembly elections, the exit polls gave Congress 80–90 seats, but we won 135 seats.

This time, we’re confident of winning 2/3 of the total Lok Sabha seats in the state.

The people of India want change.

: Shri @DKShivakumar, Karnataka Deputy… pic.twitter.com/kIcABfIpco

— Congress (@INCIndia) June 2, 2024

Moosewala Supremacy pic.twitter.com/lF68eJVOL9

— Nimo Tai (@Cryptic_Miind) June 2, 2024

Related:

FactChecked: 2024 Lok Sabha exit polls reveal conflicting predictions

Why Indian exit polls are often biased and favour the ruling party

Hasty exit poll conducted during the seventh phase of voting in Bengal

Elections Stories I missed in the newspapers that I buy

India’s Sixth Phase of elections marked by missing voters and discrimination: Independent Election Observers (IEO)

The post DB Live predictions cast shadow on BJP’s aspirations on gaining majority in Lok Sabha elections, predictions 255-291 seats for INDIA bloc appeared first on SabrangIndia.

Exit polls have become a crucial component of the Indian electoral process, providing a snapshot of voter sentiment before the official results are announced. However, the reliability of these polls has often been called into question, with varying degrees of accuracy and confidence in their predictions. One aspect to consider when evaluating the reliability of exit polls in India is the methodology used in conducting these polls. Exit polls typically involve surveying voters as they leave polling stations to gauge their preferences and behaviour. However, factors such as sample size, sampling techniques, and survey design can all influence the accuracy of the results. Furthermore, most poll agencies are not transparency about their data or methodology, while some try to explain their predictions based on generic claims about scale and quality of voter surveys.

India Today – Axis My India Exit Poll claims “unmatched history” of predicting “nearly” every election correctly. As per India Today, Axis My India Exit Poll 2024 has the largest survey in terms of sample size for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, encompassing 5.8 lakh interviews across all 543 parliamentary constituencies and 3,607 assembly constituencies. India Today said that over a period of 43 days, a team of 912 surveyors diligently conducted these interviews across 22,288 villages and cities with an aim to provide most “precise” predictions. Notably, in its explanation of their methodology, India Today is silent on representation in terms of gender, caste, age, religion, etc.

News18 said that it conducted mammoth exercise covering 21 states and 518 Lok Sabha seats for its exit poll survey, interviewing over 95000 voters. Furthermore, explaining its methodology, it notes that “In each Lok Sabha constituency, three Vidhan Sabha constituencies were covered, with 10 polling booths in each selected through random sampling. Around each polling station, trained investigators conducted 15 door-to-door interviews – one eligible respondent with inked finger per household. In case of the exit poll, near each polling station, 15 interviews were conducted of people coming out after casting their votes, with every fifth person stopped for an interview.” The news channel also claimed that it geo-tagged and cross-verified each figure and respondent. Again, the methodology is silent on the representative quality of the dataset.

Interestingly, other agencies did not provide any details about their methodology or dataset. Furthermore, the following considerations are important to keep in mind about the exit polls:

1. Methodological Challenges: Conducting exit polls requires significant logistical coordination. The reliability of the results can be affected by factors such as sample size, sampling methodology, and the quality of data collection.
2. Voter Behaviour: Voters may not always accurately report their choices, either due to social desirability bias or other reasons. This can lead to inaccuracies in exit poll predictions.
3. Margin of Error: Like any survey, exit polls come with a margin of error. This margin can vary depending on the methodology and sample size, meaning that the actual election results may fall outside the predicted range.
4. Dynamic Political Landscape: Indian elections often witness last-minute swings in voter preferences, making it challenging for exit polls to capture the true sentiment accurately.

5. Complex Electoral System: India’s multi-phase and multi-party electoral system, coupled with diverse regional dynamics, can make it difficult to capture the nuances of voter behavior accurately.
6. Regulatory Restrictions: India’s Election Commission imposes restrictions on the publication of exit poll results until all phases of voting are complete, which can affect the timing and accuracy of predictions.

The post How robust are methodologies deployed to conduct exit polls? appeared first on SabrangIndia.

On the other hand, Rudra exit-poll painted a different pictures for the MVA and the Mahayuti alliance, predicting a win for the MVA with 34 seats, with the Uddhav Thakrey led Shiv Sena (UBT) winning the most seats at 14, followed by Congress with 12 seats, and the Sharad Pawar NCP faction getting 8 seats. 

According to the said exit-poll, Mahayuti alliance will be able to get a total of 13 seats, with the BJP winning 8 seats, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena getting 3 seats and Ajit Pawar’s NCP getting only 1 seat. The remaining one seat would go to other parties, completing the tally of 48 seats.

The report Rudra Survey-Exit Poll includes seat-share and vote-share data. As per the data, a 46% vote share for MVA and 43% vote share for Mahayuti is predicted. The exit poll further showed the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi gaining a 3% vote share and the remaining 8% going to others.

Rudra survey — exit polls
Maharashtra— 48 seats
MahaYuti— 13
MVA — 34
Others — 1 pic.twitter.com/HgRCFBQyhF

— Sudhir Suryawanshi (@ss_suryawanshi) June 1, 2024

A detailed region-wise analysis of the Rudra exit polls showed that out of the six Mumbai seats, 4 will go to Uddhav Thakrey-led Shiv Sena, and 1 each to Congress and BJP brings MVA’s tally to 5 in Mumbai. In the Konkan region, out of the total 6 seats, 2 are predicted to be won by BJP, while the four are to be divided equally amongst Shinde faction SS, Thakrey faction SS, Ajit Pawar faction of NCP and Sharad Pawar faction of NCP.

Furthermore, for the 8 seats of Uttar Maharashtra, 3 seats are forecasted to be won by BJP, while the rest 5 is predicted to be won by the MVA. In Vidharbh, where there are a total of 10 seats, the exit poll predicts Mahayuti winning 3 seats, 2 by BJP and 1 by Shiv Sena, and MVA winning 7 seats, 2 by SS (UBT), 4 by Congress and 1 by NCP (SS).

The full table on region-wise predictions can be viewed as follows:

The seat wise predictions also provides an insight upon some of the key seats being fought upon in Maharashtra. As per the data, in Mumbai North, BJP’s Piyush Goyal will secure a win with 62% of the vote share, defeating INC’s Bhushan Patil, who is expected to get 35%, with 3% going to other candidates. The victory margin is predicted to be 2,60,000-3,00,000 as per Rudra Exit Poll. 

In Mumbai North East, Shiv Sena UBT’s Sanjay Dina Patil is anticipated to win with 52% of the vote share, beating BJP’s Mihir Kotecha, who is projected to receive 44%, with 4% for others.

For the Mumbai North Central seat, INC’s Varsha Gaikwad is predicted to win with 51% of the vote share while BJP’s Ujjwal Nikam is expected to secure 46%, leaving the remaining 3% for others.

In the highly contested Mumbai South seat, Shiv Sena UBT’s Arvind Sawant is expected to secure a third consecutive win with 51% of the vote share. His opponent, CM Shinde-led Shiv Sena leader Yamini Jadhav, is projected to get 43%, with the remaining 6% for others.

The seat wise predictions are as follows:

It is essential to note that DB Live, a digital channel of the Deshbandhu newspaper, also released an exit poll which was similar in the lines of the Rudra exit poll and predicted MVA securing a majority number of seats in Maharashtra. According to the Deshbandhu Exit Poll, conducted in association with Electline of India agency, the MVA is forecasted to win 28-30 seats, while the Mahayuti is expected to win a total of 18-20 seats. 

Related:

Why Indian exit polls are often biased and favour the ruling party

Elections Stories I missed in the newspapers that I buy

India’s Sixth Phase of elections marked by missing voters and discrimination: Independent Election Observers (IEO)

The post Rudra exit poll: 30 of 48 seats for MVA in Maharashtra, Mahayuti below 15 appeared first on SabrangIndia.

Contradictory exit poll figures

Himachal Pradesh: Zee News exit poll suggests that NDA is winning 6-8 seats in the state while opposition INDIA alliance is reduced to naught. As a matter of fact, Himachal Pradesh has only 4 Lok Sabha seats, so can BJP supposedly win 6-8 seats in the state! Pertinently, most exit polls had shown BJP winning the Himachal Pradesh state assembly elections in 2022, while the party actually lost the elections.

Haryana: Zee News has shown NDA capturing around 16-19 seats in the state, with INDIA alliance trailing at 2-4 seats. To fact check the claim, Haryana has only 10 Lok Sabha Seats!

Rajasthan: News 24 Today-Chanakya exit polls posted on X (formerly known as twitter) claiming that NDA is likely to win 33 seats in the state even though the state has only 25 Lok Sabha seats! 

Bihar: India Today’s Axis My India exit polls suggests LJP is likely to win between 4-6 seats in the state which has a total of 40 Lok Sabha seats. Pertinently, LJP is only contesting in 5 seats, so how can it secure 6 seats?

Tamil Nadu: Zee News has shown Congress winning about 13-15 seats out of total 39 seats in the state. As a matter of fact, Congress is only contesting in 9 seats!

Exits polls claim significant turnaround in favour of BJP

Orrisa: In the Lok Sabha 2019, BJP won 8 seats in the state while 12 seats went to BJD. As per India Today – Axis My India exit polls for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, BJP will win 18-20 seats in the state which has a total of 21 seats, while BJD will be reduced to 0-2 seats, and Congress may win 0-1 seat. Furthermore, the same poll suggests BJP grabbing 51% vote share with BJD settling for 33% vote share. 

West Bengal: Multiple exit polls suggests that for the first time BJP may trump TMC by winning up to 26 seats while TMC could be reduced to below 20 seats, with as low as 16 seats. Notably, West Bengal has a total of 42 seats.

Karnataka: India Today exit polls suggest that NDA may bag 23-25 seats out of total 28 seats in the state while Congress could be reduced to 3-5 seats. Similarly, India TV-CNX gave NDA 19-25 seats and Congress 4-8 seats. ABP News-C Voter has predicted 23-25 for NDA and 3-5 for Congress. 

Jharkhand: Aaj Tak exit polls have predicted CPIML to win 2-3 seats in the state which has 14 seats in total, even though CPIML is only contesting in 1 seat!

All-India level poll predictions

Conclusion

As the country waits with bated breath for the final results to be announced, speculation runs wild. There is still a hesitation that the exit polls may have been manipulated, while some argue that the true sentiments of the people are simply too complex to be accurately captured through exit polls. Amidst all the chaos and confusion, there are those who remain hopeful that the true voice of the people will soon be revealed. They believe in the power of democracy and the ability of the Indian electorate to make an informed and rational choice. The 2024 Lok Sabha exit polls may have been filled with contradictions and uncertainties, but let us hope that the voters will prevail as the election results are finally revealed on June 4th.

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Exit poll results started trickling in shortly after the clock struck 6:30 PM on Sunday, May 19, 2019 and news anchors turned into the most enthusiastic cheerleading squad for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, predicting that he would retain power with an even greater number of seats in the Parliament than last time. The following day the stock markets surged leading some to wonder if there was a connection between the two events. Senior journalist Paranjoy Guha Thakurta, who is best known for taking on crony capitalists, said the following in his FB post:

Meanwhile, it is important to remember that exit polls have missed the mark on several previous occasions, getting it wrong during the Assembly elections in Bihar and Delhi in 2015. While it is possible that some mistakes may be genuine, one cannot ignore another more sinister possibility… one where a toxic cocktail of money, fear and misdirection, sets the agenda and falsehoods end up being peddled as actual results. Let’s examine each of these aspects:

Flexing money muscle: Stock market being manipulated?
Paranjay Guha Thakurta, isn’t the only one who feels that false exit poll results are being deliberately released to create an artificial buoyancy in the market that can be subsequently exploited. INC’s Saket Gokhale also suspects the same. In an exclusive interview to Sabrang India, Gokhale says, “Close on the heels of the exit polls, the stock markets on Monday saw a remarkable spike with a rise of 400 points in the NIFTY and about 1400 points in the SENSEX. The Sensex recorded its biggest single-day rise in the last decade.” He finds this rather suspicious given the state of the economy.

Gokhale alleges that a BJP-controlled cartel sits at the head of the markets hedging the finances of the party and helping them recoup any money spent. He also claims that trading is often based on “stock tips” (a euphemism for insider information) than financial models.  He feels the surge on Monday is likely to benefit the BJP and might even be used by traders sympathetic to the party to make a fortune short-selling stocks. He thinks this could be a plan B of sorts in case the party ends up sitting in the opposition. “The truth of Indian politics is that parties in the Opposition struggle to get funding and donations. Having spent a whopping amount of money on its campaign, the BJP needs to replenish its Treasury in the event that it sits in the Opposition. The money made off the markets today will help them fight yet another day. In the next 2 days (and especially on the 23rd), expect major volatility in the markets. We might even see the markets going back to their pre-Monday numbers and resetting the gains of today. That’s when the cartel will be short-selling the markets in order to make more money from the downward fluctuation,” he says.

He cites a previous example, “The last time we saw this cartel at work was during the 2017 Gujarat Assembly Elections when the first few hours of counting showed the Congress taking a lead. A major meltdown happened in the markets which stabilized once the BJP started getting a lead around noon.” Gokhale points to the stocks that gained the most on May 20, 2019 – Adani Enterprises, Reliance Power and Reliance Industrial Infrastructure. “The links of these companies and their owners with the BJP and Narendra Modi have been written about extensively in the last several years. They were the biggest gainers today,” he says demanding a thorough investigation by the Securities and Exchange Board of India.

Fear factor and the silent voter

The post The Politics of Exit Polls: Money, Fear and Misdirection appeared first on SabrangIndia.

 

 
As the hold of the media and private gangs continues on Indian democracy, the only way is for the people to stand up and resist. With the massive manipulations of the media and market, it is now clear that attempt was to demoralise the cadres and workers of the political parties and make honest officers succumb.
 
There are disturbing reports of an attempt to open the Strong Rooms and push the EVMs. The Election Commission must explain as what is happening and why so many reports are now emerging from various parts of the country of their compromise. It must explain why it gave a four days gap when the last vote was polled. When the polling culminated on 19th, why did the election commission take the extraordinary time of four days for counting and allowing the market and media manipulators to play mayhem with people’s aspiration and build up a false narrative.
 
The nation is in a serious crisis. Democracy is at risk because of those who want power at any cost. Unfortunately, our institutions have let us down. At the moment, people should maintain vigil at the respected counting centres. We know bigger things are going to happen on counting day and I can bet that while exit polls came out within two hours after the voting was finished, the real counting may take hours.
 
Even on the counting day, media will play games and they have already built a narrative that the opposition is complaining because it is losing or has lost. Big frauds are being invited on TV channels and are discussing an issue which is hypothetical. We can understand that the exit polls, if done honestly, can show you a trend but why so much enthusiasm to discuss things based on that. Why can’t the media wait till until the 23rd?
 
India needs a government of unity. I hope all the parties will realise that the challenge now is much bigger. Democracy is under severe threat. All other issues can be debated later but it is time to protect democracy. We hope that officials entrusted to do the job will do it honestly and in the greater interest of democracy. India as a nation will lose if the democratic process is subverted and the duty to protect it is not merely of those who are guarding strong rooms and the counting centres; but also activists, writers, authors, public intellectuals, government officials, police persons need to ensure fairness and report malpractices or maladministration.
 
Election Commission would do well to speak to the media and explain things categorically. Those in the media, if they like to be seen with the people, should report all these incidents and be vigilant everywhere.
 

The post Opinion: Maintain a united vigil until May 23, protect democracy at all costs appeared first on SabrangIndia.

In this episode of NewsChakra, senior journalist Abhisar Sharma discusses exit polls following the general elections 2019. He also criticises how mainstream media is publicising Narendra Modi’s visit to Kedarnath even as the Model Code of Conduct is still imposed. It’s clear that Election Commission of India and mainstream media are supporting Modi, says Sharma.

Courtesy: News Click

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BJP’s Numbers to Nosedive
Bajpai’s over-all predictions say that though the BJP may end up as the single largest party, their numbers could be reduced to anywhere between 132-140 seats, down from their tally of 282 in 2014. Bajpai predicts that the Congress has bounced back from a virual decimation will likely get a hundred odd seats. Bajpai also says that the Mahagathbandhan is here to stay and will be a permanent phenomenon in the UP. The alliance between Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav will get 50+ seats. Regional satraps Mamata Banerjee and Stalin could both get 35+ seats each while Navin Patnaik could get 18+ seats. 

Following is Bajpai’s careful, calculated and in-depth analysis of UP seats that went to polls on May 19. These indicate how the Mahagathbandhan’s star is on the rise.  

UP Seats likely to go to the Mahagathbandhan:
Gorakhpur: According to Bajpai, rural areas of this constituency have voted for the Mahagathbandhan candidate Ram Bhau Nishad is being seen as a uniting factor, who brought together Muslims, Dalits and members of castes like the Nishads and others. BJP’s Ravi Kishen, who was expected to do little more than to play stand in for UP CM Adityanath who vacated this seat when he became Chief Minister, does not have a wwinning record. In fact, when he had fought previously on a Congress ticket, Kishen had lost. Was he picked purposely as he lacked the spark to outshine Adityanath who wants to reign supreme in his fiefdom? Bajpayee gives Gorakhpur to the Mahagathbandhan.

Gazhipur: Though BJP’s IIT educated Manoj Sinha has done tremendous work to bring about infrastructural development in this region, the sheer might of the Yadav-Muslim vote will obliterate his chances of winning. However, the Kushwaha vote could go to the Congress candidate and this might divide the vote in favour of the BJP. BSP’s Afzal Ansari (brother of Mukhtar Ansari) appears strong.

Other Seats likely to go to the Mahagathbandan include Devraiya, Basgaon and Ballia.

Seats likely to be won by the INC:
Kushinagar: INC’s RPN Singh, a scion of the erstwhile royal family has a good chance at victory here according to Bajpayee, because the BJP changed their candidate to Vijay Dubey at the eleventh hour. Mahagathbandhan’s Nathani Kushwaha is unlikely to do much damage to the INC’s chances here.

Seats where it is too close to call:
Salimpur: Here it is a Kushwaha vs Kushwaha battle. The Kushwaha’s are an electorally significant caste with large numbers in this region. BJP’s Ravindra Kushwaha had won the last time by a huge margin of over 2 lakh votes. But the Mahagathmandhan candidate RS Kushwaha also belongs to the same community. If the vote gets split between the MGB and INC’s RK Mishra, then BJP might win this constituency.

Mirzapur: While BJP’s Anupriya Patel is a strong contender, she can only win if the vote splits between the Mahagathbandhan’s Ramcharit Nishad and the INC’s Laliteshpati Tripathi. But if the vote doesn’t split, Nishad is likely to emerge winner.

Robertsganj: All contenders are outsiders, in the sense that they are all from Mirzapur and not Robertsganj that is located in the heart of the Sonbhadra forest region. Pakodilal Kol of the Apna Dal (a BJP ally) is a strong player, but the Samajwadi Party’s Bhai Lal Kol is equally strong. If the vote splits between the two Kol’s it benefits the INC’s Bhagwati Chaudhry.

Other seats too close to call include Maharajganj (near the Nepal border) and Chandauli.

The Curious Case of Varanasi:
According to Bajpai, Modi’s victory in Varanasi should not be a foregone conclusion. One shouldn’t discount the previous arithmetic, when Kejriwal amassed a huge number of votes despite standing against Modi. Bajpai is not discounting the possibility of INC’s Ajay Rai bettering Kejriwal’s tally. He also warns against writing off the unifying skills of Priyanka Gandhi and says that the battle of Benaras is a silent but strong electoral battle. 

Punya Prasoon Bajpai’s full analysis may be viewed here.
 

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