You have been one of the most accomplished political strategists the country has seen, especially after the tornado-like sweep of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party in 2014, which redefined India’s political trajectory.

I was among the few who actually publicly endorsed your entry into the Congress party as a bold breakthrough proposition, even when I was suspended by the party myself. But I must point out, regretfully, that of late, your utterances have been rather cosmetic, and often, bordering on mendacity. I woke up this morning to your BBC News interview, and to be honest, was stunned into disbelief. Either you have got your basic facts completely wrong, or you are blatantly misleading the people of India.

1. India’s Muslim population is 14% but according to you it is 18%. Wow! Considering your entire political career started off as a psephologist, that gargantuan 4% difference that you glossed over is professional sacrilege. Psephologists are rated on their exactitude. You fail the test. There is no margin of error when you are indulging in a serious conversation post a historic election that has reduced an authoritarian government to its knees.
2. Your attempt to diminish Congress party’s impressive 23% aggregate vote-share in the 2024 elections has again got a luminous distortion. Again, it is elementary, Mr Watson. The rise in Congress vote-share by nearly 3-4% is staggering, because it fought in only 328 seats compared to 464 in 2014 where it got 19.4% vote-share. Why did you not tell that to BBC News? Why would you make such a brazen omission?
3. Your statement that Congress has a “free vote-bank of 20% minorities votes” is so preposterous that it could qualify for the Oscars in Exaggerated Falsehoods. Muslims vote for regional parties too in bulk; the perfect case being UP and Bihar, among others. The Sikhs vote for different political parties including the BJP. Several Christians have voted for the BJP in Goa, Kerala and the North East. And the bulk of Jains probably vote for the BJP alone. Bottom-line: You lied. But why? Why did you not elaborate on the reasons why minorities are apprehensive and frightened of the hate-mongering and divisive politics of the BJP?
4. FYI, Congress won 57 of its 99 seats from six states with low Muslim populations – Karnataka, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra. PK, you forgot to do your homework.

Now, the truth that the people of India must know, the real reason why you are so unambiguously hostile to the Congress is because you saw yourself as a saviour of the Grand Old Party once it would have been annihilated in the 2024 general elections – something Prime Minister Narendra Modi and others too thought was a fait accompli. You tried that in your famous “TMC-Goa model” in the assembly elections of 2022 which flopped miserably. Your attempt to rebrand TMC as a national alternative to the INC was instantly abandoned. Mamata Banerjee was an unsuspecting victim of your Machiavellian game to destroy Congress for the pursuit of your personal ambitions. It was expected that a demoralised Congress would crumble, and you would arrive as a knight in shining armour.

There are two things you need to reflect on, Prashant:

1. Why did BJP lose the parliamentary seat of Ayodhya?
2. Why did Congress win both the seats in Manipur?

I hereby give you an open challenge to debate with me on national television on the above and more. And by the way, this will hurt, but I predicted 240 seats maximum for the BJP on several occasions, while you were sarcastically asking Indians to keep a glass of water ready for the June 4 results with the saffron party at 303+.

I messaged Karan Thapar after your public meltdown on his show (similar to another media-created political superhero) that you had indeed told me yourself over a phone call that Congress would be decimated in Himachal Pradesh. But then, you can always deny that. But what you cannot deny is that a celebrated emissary of your team (an intellectual titan and former parliamentarian) wanted me to join TMC with a host of attractive inducements thrown in. I listened to the proposition as any gentleman should, and politely refused. And yet, I was in London when a press release was unethically circulated that I had attended a meeting with the West Bengal CM in attendance.

Cheers!

Sanjay Jha is a former national spokesperson of the Indian National Congress party. He also worked as a banker and an internet entrepreneur.

The post An Open Letter to Prashant Kishor, Who Has Misled Indians appeared first on SabrangIndia.

The open communication to the government of India states that, even today, the stock market has not fully recovered. It appears that the trigger for the unsavoury sequence of events came from no less than the Prime Minister himself, when he “predicted” a stock market surge on June 4, namely, the date of counting of votes in the 2024 elections, conveying a hint that investors should invest in the stock market, as his government’s return to power would usher in further so-called “reforms”.

While expressing perplexity at what really prompted the PM to make such an ill-advised statement, Sarma adds that Modi’s statement was followed by the Union Home Minister, who is reported to have added fuel to fire by saying, that investors should buy before June 4.

As per his expectations, as reported, “the markets will shoot up” “The Prime Minister and the Union Home Minister are expecting market gains on 4th June” (livemint.com/market/stock-m…).

The PM being a responsible person occupying a high public office would not have made such an imprudent statement, had he not got some inputs either from within the Ministry of Finance itself or from outside, but his statement compounded by the Home Minister’s gave a feeling to unwary small investors that they were privy to some inside information, prompting them to blindly invest whatever little they had.

The entire communication may be read here:

From: Dr E A S Sarma Former Secretary to the Government of India

To: Shri Ajay Seth Secretary (Economic Affairs)

Govt of India

Dear Shri Seth,

It is disturbing that a combination of factors triggered a stock market surge on the June 3, 2024, followed by a huge crash during the day that followed, wiping out the hard earned savings invested in the market by small and marginal investors, allowing the bigger stockmarket sharks to profiteer at their cost.

Even today, the stock market has not fully recovered. It appears that the trigger for the unsavoury sequence of events came from no less than the Prime Minister himself, when he “predicted” a stock market surge on June 4, namely, the date of counting of votes in the 2024 elections, conveying a hint that investors should invest in the stock market, as his government’s return to power would usher in further so-called “reforms”.

I am not sure what really prompted the PM to make such an ill-advised statement. His statement was followed by the Union Home Minister, who is reported to have added fuel to fire by saying, that investors should buy before 4th June.

As per his expectations, as reported, “the markets will shoot up” “The Prime Minister and the Union Home Minister are expecting market gains on 4th June” (livemint.com/market/stock-m…). The PM being a responsible person occupying a high public office would not have made such an imprudent statement, had he not got some inputs either from within the Ministry of Finance itself or from outside, but his statement compounded by the Home Minister’s gave a feeling to unwary small investors that they were privy to some inside information, prompting them to blindly invest whatever little they had.

The huge losses that followed have certainly eroded the credibility of the stock market. This is something that cannot and should not be taken lightly, as it caused widespread misery to lakhs of small investors.

I have the following questions that call for answers: Did some “expert” in the Ministry of Finance provide inputs on this to the PMO? On what basis?

If the source of such misleading information can be identified, the concerned needs to be brought to book immediately.

Did an outsider, especially a large investor in the stock market, provide unsolicited advice to the PM?

If so, did that person deliberately mislead the PM to trigger volatility in the stock market and mint profits at the cost of small investors?

If so, such an investor needs to be identified and subject to deterrent penal action.

Where did the investor or investors who earned profits park their ill-gotten money? Is there a link to a money-laundering exercise?

The Enforcement Directorate, if it can function independently as it should, may be asked to investigate this possibility.

What has been the role played by the SEBI in all this?

Could SEBI have calmed down the market by countering false statements?

Has SEBI taken up an investigation?

There were reports earlier that the regulatory agencies were getting ready to deal with a stock market crisis that was likely to occur.

If that is so, why should the regulators become silent spectators to a stock market bloodbath?

I feel that the Department of Economic Affairs cannot afford to remain passive and allow the culprits to go scot free.

It should ask the ED, CBI and CBDT to conduct a well coordinated investigation in a time bound manner, so that the incoming new government, the newly elected Parliament and, of course, the public at large, would have to be apprised of this.

Regards,

Yours sincerely,

E A S Sarma

Visakhapatnam June 5, 2024

The post Investigate suspicious stock market surge and fall: former Sec to the GOI appeared first on SabrangIndia.

As per the poll predictions of Eedina, the Indian National Congress party, which is also governing the state after winning the assembly elections, will continue to maintain its lead in Karnataka over others in the Lok Sabha elections. As per the predictions, Congress party will be winning 15 seats will the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA will be able to win 13 seats in the state. It is also essential to note that as per the predictions of Eedina which were released prior to the beginning of the election, it had been alleged that Congress party might be able to secure anywhere between 13 to 18 seats, with a vote share of 46.4%.

If the predictions of the Eedina hold true, the BJP-JD(S) alliance will be able to secure 10 to 13 seats, with a vote share of 44.27%. It is also essential to note that the poll predictions of Eedina for the state assembly elections, which had predicted a win for the Congress Party, had held to be accurate.

Eedina has also released their predictions for the following states:

For the state of Telangana, Eedina has predicted that Congress will be able to win a total of 10 seats while BJP will win 4 to 5 seats and BRS to win 2-3 seats.

For Tamil Nadu, a state where BJP has been trying to making their significant entry, Eedina has projected the NDA to be able to win 1 seat while the INDIA alliance has been predicted to bag 38 seats.

For the state of Kerala, which is another state that has consistently opposed the saffron party and their politics based on communalism, INDIA is forecasted to win 19 seats and NDA only 1 seat.

The complete video can be viewed here:

#Breaking #ExitPoll #LokSabaElections2024

The most accurate Eedina survey about Karnataka, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Kerala came out

In-fact Eedina throws a challenge to all exit polls and to Axis My India’s Pradeep Gupta specifically keeping Karnataka in context.

According… pic.twitter.com/vTPZpjdBGr

— Swati Dixit ಸ್ವಾತಿ (@vibewidyou) June 3, 2024

 Eedina’s challenge to the exit polls:

In addition to releasing their poll findings, Eedina had also sternly denounced the exit polls that had been released by mainstream media houses, some of which are surveys like India Today – Axis My India, News24 – Today’s Chanakya, and Republic-Matrize, and had rather demanded for them to discuss their methodology in collecting the data on which their findings are based upon.

As per a video uploaded on YouTube, Eedina‘s research team members Dr Vasu and Bharath, raised concerns behind the surveys upon which the mainstream media are basing their findings and releasing the exit polls. The concerns raised by the team of Eedina was based upon their own recent surveys in Karnataka, through which the team has alleged that the sampling methodologies adopted as well as the outcomes of these exit polls do not align with Karnataka’s demographics and voter preferences. The aforementioned realisation then prompted for the Eedina team to challenge the exit poll results. It is essential to note that most of the surveys released by the mainstream media has shown BJP winning the Lok Sabha elections of 2024 in the state of Karnataka quite comfortably.

Additionally, Eedina has also raised a call for increasing transparency in the exit polls by promoting the agencies to release their sample size, sampling methodology, or the demographic breakdown of their samples. As per Eedina, following the practice of full disclosure will then enable the people to realise the sampling biases that might have crawled in during the surveys. Some of the concerns highlighted by Eedina were under-sampling of women and the less educated voters.

As per Eedina, by ensuring and promoting transparency, the accuracy of these exit polls can then be checked and the public, which could have been misled or influence by biased exit polls, can then re-evaluate their perception.

The complete video can be viewed here:

Related:

FactChecked: 2024 Lok Sabha exit polls reveal conflicting predictions

DB Live predictions cast shadow on BJP’s aspirations on gaining majority in Lok Sabha elections, predictions 255-291 seats for INDIA bloc

Why Indian exit polls are often biased and favour the ruling party

Hasty exit poll conducted during the seventh phase of voting in Bengal

The post Eedina predicts 15 seats for Congress in Karnataka in contradiction to the mainstream surveys; challenges other exit pollsters on their accuracy appeared first on SabrangIndia.

According to the Deshbandhu Exit Poll, conducted in association with Electline of India agency, the NDA is forecasted to secure a total of 207-241 seats, whereas the INDIA bloc might win between 255-290 seats.

State-wise predictions of key states:

Uttar Pradesh: As per the findings of the poll, in the state of Uttar Pradesh, a close contest will take place between the NDA, which will be potentially securing seats between 46 to 48, and the INDIA bloc, comprising the Samajwadi Party and Congress projected to be winning 32-34 seats.

Maharashtra: In the state of Maharashtra, the exit poll forecasts 28-30 seats for the MVA (INDIA) and 18-20 seats for the Mahayuti (NDA). For Karnataka, the poll showed a surprising advantage for the Congress, predicting 18-20 seats, while the BJP and JD(S) alliance is expected to secure 8-10 seats.

Another detailed analysis of seat predictions of Maharashtra can be viewed here.

Bihar: In Bihar, the INDIA bloc is predicted to win 24-26 seats, compared to 14-16 seats for the NDA. In Madhya Pradesh, DB Live projects 24-26 seats for the BJP, with the Congress winning a mere 3-5 seats.

West Bengal: The exit poll also predicted a sweep for Mamata Banerjee-led TMC in West Bengal, with the party winning 26-28 seats, while the BJP is expected to get 11-13 seats.

Rajasthan: In the state of Rajasthan, the poll showed the BJP winning 17-19 seats, and the INDIA bloc securing 6-8 seats.

Tamil Nadu: The exit poll numbers also showed that in Tamil Nadu, the INDI alliance is likely to win 37 to 39 seats and NDA to win only 1.

Telangana: For the state of Telangana, the poll number showed 10-20 seats being won by Congress, 0-2 by BRS and 3-5 by BJP.

Punjab: As per the predictions, none of the 17 seats of Punjab will be won by the BJP, with 6-8 being projected to be won by the AAP and 5-7 by the Congress Party.

Karnataka: In the south state of Karnataka, where many have been predicting a landslide win for the BJP, DB Live has predicted a mere 8-10 seats falling in its bag, and the INDIA bloc winning 18-20 seats

It is essential to note that the exit poll shows a stupendous win for BJP led NDA in the states of Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat.

The complete video of the poll can be viewed here:

The poll results of DB Live were also shared by Congress leader Luv Dutta on ‘X’ (formerly Twitter) while asserting that the predictions of DB Live will be the actual number of seats that the INDIA bloc will be securing.

These are the exact numbers that you all will see on 4th June.
This #ExitPoll will come out to be true.#IndiaAlliance will form the Govt on the 4th of June. pic.twitter.com/SK7RpUi1Nu

— Luv Datta #INC (@LuvDatta_INC) June 1, 2024

Notably, the Congress party had, before the exit polls had even been released, refuse to take part in any such discussion. Many Congress leaders, including Jairam Ramesh, DK Shivakumar, have also issued statements dismissing the predictions of the mainstream poll surveys.

During the Karnataka Legislative Assembly elections, the exit polls gave Congress 80–90 seats, but we won 135 seats.

This time, we’re confident of winning 2/3 of the total Lok Sabha seats in the state.

The people of India want change.

: Shri @DKShivakumar, Karnataka Deputy… pic.twitter.com/kIcABfIpco

— Congress (@INCIndia) June 2, 2024

Moosewala Supremacy pic.twitter.com/lF68eJVOL9

— Nimo Tai (@Cryptic_Miind) June 2, 2024

Related:

FactChecked: 2024 Lok Sabha exit polls reveal conflicting predictions

Why Indian exit polls are often biased and favour the ruling party

Hasty exit poll conducted during the seventh phase of voting in Bengal

Elections Stories I missed in the newspapers that I buy

India’s Sixth Phase of elections marked by missing voters and discrimination: Independent Election Observers (IEO)

The post DB Live predictions cast shadow on BJP’s aspirations on gaining majority in Lok Sabha elections, predictions 255-291 seats for INDIA bloc appeared first on SabrangIndia.

Exit polls have become a crucial component of the Indian electoral process, providing a snapshot of voter sentiment before the official results are announced. However, the reliability of these polls has often been called into question, with varying degrees of accuracy and confidence in their predictions. One aspect to consider when evaluating the reliability of exit polls in India is the methodology used in conducting these polls. Exit polls typically involve surveying voters as they leave polling stations to gauge their preferences and behaviour. However, factors such as sample size, sampling techniques, and survey design can all influence the accuracy of the results. Furthermore, most poll agencies are not transparency about their data or methodology, while some try to explain their predictions based on generic claims about scale and quality of voter surveys.

India Today – Axis My India Exit Poll claims “unmatched history” of predicting “nearly” every election correctly. As per India Today, Axis My India Exit Poll 2024 has the largest survey in terms of sample size for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, encompassing 5.8 lakh interviews across all 543 parliamentary constituencies and 3,607 assembly constituencies. India Today said that over a period of 43 days, a team of 912 surveyors diligently conducted these interviews across 22,288 villages and cities with an aim to provide most “precise” predictions. Notably, in its explanation of their methodology, India Today is silent on representation in terms of gender, caste, age, religion, etc.

News18 said that it conducted mammoth exercise covering 21 states and 518 Lok Sabha seats for its exit poll survey, interviewing over 95000 voters. Furthermore, explaining its methodology, it notes that “In each Lok Sabha constituency, three Vidhan Sabha constituencies were covered, with 10 polling booths in each selected through random sampling. Around each polling station, trained investigators conducted 15 door-to-door interviews – one eligible respondent with inked finger per household. In case of the exit poll, near each polling station, 15 interviews were conducted of people coming out after casting their votes, with every fifth person stopped for an interview.” The news channel also claimed that it geo-tagged and cross-verified each figure and respondent. Again, the methodology is silent on the representative quality of the dataset.

Interestingly, other agencies did not provide any details about their methodology or dataset. Furthermore, the following considerations are important to keep in mind about the exit polls:

1. Methodological Challenges: Conducting exit polls requires significant logistical coordination. The reliability of the results can be affected by factors such as sample size, sampling methodology, and the quality of data collection.
2. Voter Behaviour: Voters may not always accurately report their choices, either due to social desirability bias or other reasons. This can lead to inaccuracies in exit poll predictions.
3. Margin of Error: Like any survey, exit polls come with a margin of error. This margin can vary depending on the methodology and sample size, meaning that the actual election results may fall outside the predicted range.
4. Dynamic Political Landscape: Indian elections often witness last-minute swings in voter preferences, making it challenging for exit polls to capture the true sentiment accurately.

5. Complex Electoral System: India’s multi-phase and multi-party electoral system, coupled with diverse regional dynamics, can make it difficult to capture the nuances of voter behavior accurately.
6. Regulatory Restrictions: India’s Election Commission imposes restrictions on the publication of exit poll results until all phases of voting are complete, which can affect the timing and accuracy of predictions.

The post How robust are methodologies deployed to conduct exit polls? appeared first on SabrangIndia.

The data turnaround data released in such a way that clearly indicating a confirmation biased of media channels in between the contesting parties in Bengal and Ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Most of the exit polls have predicted that the BJP will get more seats than the Bengal’s ruling party TMC in the state.

NDA inclined Exit Polls for Bengal by National Media:

The Exit Polls by major media house inclined towards NDA.  As per date released by India Today-Axis My India Exit Polls for the 20224 Lok Sabha elections BJP likely to win 26-31 seats in Bengal and TMC will remain in between 11-14 and 0-2 for Left(M). The India Today-Axis My India exit poll predicted the BJP to get 46 per cent vote share in West Bengal. ABP Ananda Exit Polls in association with CVoter conducted Exit Polls and expected 23-27 seats for BJP, 13-17 for TMC, 1-3 INC. Not surprisingly, Republic TV PMARQ made a conservative estimate of 22 seats for BJP out of 47 and rest for others. As per Exit Polls released by Jan Ki Baat, NDA will get 21-26 seats, TMC 16-18 seats and others 0-2 seats.

Bengal’s local Exit Polls for Lok Sabha 2024 expects INDIA Bloc will get setback:

The Senior Journalist and Editor Santanu Dutta Choudhary from West Bengal expected 22-24 seats for TMC, 16-18 seats for BJP, 1 to Congress and 0-1 CPI(M). Bengal’s “Nagorik” News media house in their Exit Polls anticipated 22-24 seats for TMC, 16-18 to BJP and 2 seats for Congress and CPM. The exit polls data released by West Bengal’s local news channel Calcutta News estimated 20-25 seats for TMS and 16 to 21 for BJP and rest for left and congress.

Tulmuk in Nandigram, where Debangshu Bhattacharya is an MP candidate from TMC. This place is also known as Adhikari gar (means the place for Debangshu Adhikari). However, Debangshu Bhattacharya busted over the media hype taking reference from the previous poll. Over the Exit Polls he said, “Purba Medinipur has 16 seats where 9 seats were won by TMC and if we see the talks about the undivided Medinipur, it has 35 seats and TMC secured 26 seats.

TMC MP Sougata Roy, who is seeking re-election from the Dum Dum Lok Sabha seat for a fourth consecutive term, also rejected the exit poll predictions. TMC said it believed in people’s mandate.

Hasty turnaround of Exit Polls misleading and biased:

The exit polls released by National Media House no doubt biased and inclined towards ruling party. Shockingly Times Now provided mismatched data in Exit Polls. Times Now expected BJP likely to win 21 seats and 20 seats to TMC out of 42 but no clear on other 1 seat.

The post Hasty exit poll conducted during the seventh phase of voting in Bengal appeared first on SabrangIndia.

A primary challenge in conducting accurate exit polls in India is the country’s vast and diverse electorate. With over a billion people from numerous castes, religions, languages, and regional identities, it is immensely difficult to capture a representative sample that accurately reflects the entire population’s voting behaviour. This complexity often results in skewed samples and inaccurate predictions.

Exit polls in India face several methodological challenges. Pollsters must ensure that their sample of respondents is truly representative, balancing factors like urban-rural divides, literacy levels, and socio-economic statuses. Logistical issues such as accessing remote areas and ensuring the safety of pollsters can also introduce biases in data collection, further distorting the results.

Indian voters often exhibit reluctance in revealing their true voting preferences, a phenomenon known as the “shy voter” effect. Cultural norms, fear of political retribution, or a desire to maintain privacy can lead voters to provide false or misleading information to pollsters. This tendency significantly distorts the data collected during exit polls.

The strategic nature of voting in India complicates the accuracy of exit polls. Voters may change their preferences at the last minute based on various factors, including candidate performance, local developments, or last-minute campaign efforts. Additionally, tactical voting—where voters choose a candidate not because they prefer them, but to prevent another candidate from winning—can further complicate predictions. Exit polls, conducted immediately after voting, may not fully capture these dynamics.

The historical performance of political parties and media influence can impact the reliability of exit polls. Media narratives and pre-poll surveys can create biases, influencing voters’ responses during exit polls. Exit pollsters may also be subconsciously influenced by historical trends, leading to biased predictions that favour the ruling party. This bias can create self-fulfilling prophecies, further eroding the accuracy of exit polls.

Let’s examine some notable examples where Indian exit polls failed to match the actual election results:

1. 2004 General Elections: This election stands as one of the most prominent examples of exit poll failure. Most exit polls predicted a comfortable victory for the incumbent BJP-led NDA. However, the Congress-led UPA emerged victorious, securing 218 seats compared to the NDA’s 181. This unexpected outcome highlighted the limitations and biases of exit polls.
2. 2. 2015 Bihar Assembly Elections: Exit polls were split, with some predicting a win for the BJP and its allies, while others foresaw a victory for the Grand Alliance (RJD, JD(U), and Congress). The actual results showed a decisive win for the Grand Alliance, which secured 178 out of 243 seats, contrary to many predictions.
3. 3. 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections: While most exit polls predicted a BJP victory, the extent of the win was grossly underestimated. The BJP won 312 out of 403 seats, a significantly higher number than what most exit polls had suggested.
4. 2019 General Elections: Despite most exit polls predicting a BJP-led NDA victory, the actual results showed an even more decisive win, with the NDA securing 353 seats. The magnitude of the BJP’s victory was again underestimated by many exit polls.
5. 5. West Bengal Assembly Elections 2021: Many exit polls predicted a close contest between the BJP and the ruling TMC. However, the final results showed a sweeping victory for the TMC, which secured 213 out of 294 seats, while the BJP managed only 77 seats. The exit polls failed to capture the TMC’s strong hold on the state.
6. Delhi Assembly Elections 2015 and 2020: In 2015, most exit polls underestimated the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)’s performance, predicting a hung assembly or a slim majority. The AAP ended up winning 67 out of 70 seats. Similarly, in 2020, exit polls predicted a win for AAP, but the actual results were even more lopsided, with AAP winning 62 out of 70 seats, far exceeding the predictions.

The frequent failure of Indian exit polls to predict actual election results highlights the inherent challenges in capturing the voting behaviour of such a diverse and complex electorate. Methodological flaws, voter reluctance, strategic voting, and media biases all contribute to the inaccuracies, often skewing results in favour of the ruling party. As India continues to evolve, so too must the methods used to understand its electorate. Until then, exit polls will remain an intriguing, albeit unreliable, part of the electoral landscape.

Nadeem Khan is a Social Activist associated with Spect Foundation

The post Why Indian exit polls are often biased and favour the ruling party appeared first on SabrangIndia.

It’s counting day and after five rounds of counting out of the total nine rounds scheduled to take place, the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears to be in the lead, though the Indian National Congress (Congress) is not far behind. Political pundits have predicted a hung Assembly, even as the two main players are neck-and-neck in the coastal state.

As per data available on the Election Commission of India’s (ECI) official website at 11 A.M, BJP is leading in 18 out of the total 40 seats in the Goa Assembly. It is also trailing in around 12 seats. Meanwhile, the Congress is leading in 11 seats and is trailing in another 11 seats. Another party in the fray is the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP), which is backed by Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). The MGP is leading in 4 seats. Independents follow with a lead in 4 seats while the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Goa Forward Party (GFP) lead in one seat each. AAP is also trailing in 1 seat.

As per trends, BJP crossed the halfway mark by 10 A.M as opposed to exit polls that reported Goa would have a hung Assembly. News reports also pointed to the Congress’s pre-poll alliance with the GFP. The BJP and AAP had chosen to go solo, while the TMC ventured into the western Indian state by backing the MGP, although this reality may change as per NDTV reports on Thursday.

At the time of going to press, in Sanquelim, the incumbent Chief Minister Dr. Pramod Sawant’s constituency, Congress candidate Dharmesh Saglani was leading with a narrow margin of 317 votes.

The tiny western state has a large Christian population and reported growing Hindutva activity in recent years. As per the ECI voter turnout app Goa reported 81.15 percent voter turnout in North Goa, and 78.27 percent voter turnout in South Goa. Both the areas went to polls on the same day – February 14.

Like Goa, Manipur, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand show BJP leading at present, but Punjab shows a clean sweep for AAP.

Related:

BREAKING: Officer Suspended in Varanasi after Akhilesh Yadav’s allegations
Who’s afraid of the exit polls, anyway?
Assembly Election Exit Polls: Will media pundits be proved wrong again?
Assembly elections: Over 67 percent voter turnout in Haridwar, Saharanpur

The post Goa Assembly Elections: BJP leading after 5 rounds of counting appeared first on SabrangIndia.

As soon as polling concluded for the last phase of the Assembly Elections in Uttar Pradesh on March 7, 2022, news media channels started releasing their Exit Poll results. But the truth often gets lost when big media networks, that rely heavily on advertising revenue and political patronage, engage in any high decibel news telecast about electoral predictions.

In a proto-fascist State, more often than not, the entire exercise of conducting an Exit Poll and revealing its results is reduced to just a charade by media houses who have proven time and again that they are happy to be the regime’s lapdogs. Their Exit Polls appear to be nothing more than a campaign to spread misinformation or gaslight viewers, just so the TRPs remain high and the unofficial bosses remain happy.

But sometimes, even news channels that have greater credibility owing to a proven track record of balanced and nuanced news coverage, also end up making genuine mistakes when it comes to predictions and calculations. But only a few have the courage and dignity to apologise. Bihar election predictions being a prime example.

With this in mind, let us take a deep dive into what different Exit Polls are saying about the outcome of the Assembly Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh. Some of the predictions are so divergent, that it makes one wonder if the polls are even referring to the same state!

While the veracity of all exit polls cannot be rejected outright, perhaps a closer look is mandated to ascertain ground realities. What can also not be ignored is the silence factor – when the respondent voter does not divulge that they have voted against the incumbent regime, out of fear of retaliation. It is noteworthy, that some political pundits have referred to it, but often to suggest that even the pro-regime voters are not divulging their vote. The reason for this though, is not clear.

Before the elections the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was in power in Goa, Manipur, Uttaranchal and Uttar Pradesh, while the Indian National Congress (INC) is the incumbent government in Punjab.

Goa (40 Assembly seats)

In Goa, the India Today – Axis My India Exit Poll predicts a hung Assembly. It gives the BJP 14-18 seats, and the INC 15-20 seats, with Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) likely to get 2-5 seats and the remaining 0-4 being lapped up by independents and others.

The ABP News – C Voter Exit Poll also makes similar predictions, saying no single party will get a majority. It gives the BJP 13-17 seats, the INC 12-16 seats and says that the Aam Admi Party (AAP) might end up getting 4-8 seats.

India TV meanwhile appears to be hedging its bets with two exit polls. While the India TV CNX exit poll says that the BJP will retain Goa with 16-22 seats, the channel’s second exit poll with Ground Zero Research predicts a comfortable majority for the Congress with 20-25 seats!

According to the Times Now-Veto Exit Poll, Congress might emerge as the single largest party with 16 seats, followed by BJP with 14. It gives AAP 4 seats and 6 to others.

Meanwhile, a lesser known Deshbandhu Exit Poll gives the BJP 7-11 seats, while it predicts that the INC could bag 21-25 emerging as the largest party, leaving others with 6-10 seats.

Interestingly the MGP, that is backed by the Trinamool Congress (TMC) is being touted by many to play kingmaker! Does this mean that Mamata Banerjee is all set to take the mantle of “Remote Control” from the Late Balasaheb Thackeray?

Manipur (60 Assembly seats)

When it comes to Manipur, almost all polls predict a victory for the BJP. The India Today – Axis My India Exit Poll says that the BJP is likely to get 33-43 seats, with the INC, National People’s Party (NPP) and the Naga People’s Front (NPF) all likely to get between 4-8 seats. Yet others could get anywhere between 0-7 seats.

India TV – Ground Zero Exit Poll too predicts a “thumping victory” for the BJP saying it will win 26-31 seats, while the INC will get 12-16 seats. The Zee – Designboxed survey also gives the BJP an edge with 32-38 seats, giving the INC 12-17 seats, while the NPP is expected to win 2-4 seats, leaving 2-5 seats for the others.

The ABP News – C Voter Exit Poll, however, gives the BJP 23-27 seats, thus suggesting it will be the single largest party, but will not have a sweeping victory. It gives 12-16 seats to the INC, 10-14 seats to the NPP and 3-7 seats to the NPF. These leaves independents and others with 2-6 seats.                                                                                                                                              

Similarly, the Jan Ki Baat survey’s estimates also appear to be more conservative with the BJP is likely to win 23-28 seats, the Congress 10-14, NPP 7-8 and others 12-18. The CNX survey’s predictions are only marginally higher for the BJP giving it 26-31 seats. It predicts 12-17 for the Congress, 6-10 for the NPP and 7-12 for others.

But here too, Deshbandhu Exit Poll’s predictions differ from others. It gives the BJP 23-27 seats, and the INC 21-25 seats, leaving others with 10-14 seats. This suggests a closer contest between the BJP and INC, as opposed to how other exit polls have treated BJP’s victory here as a foregone conclusion.

Punjab (117 Assembly seats)

Almost all exit polls have predicted a clean sweep for the AAP in Punjab. The India Today – Axis My India Exit Poll says AAP could win as many as 76-90 seats, and predicted that the INC would get 19-31 seats.

The ABP News – C Voter Exit Poll gave AAP 51-61 seats, and gave the INC 22-28, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) 20-26 seats and the BJP a measly 7-13 seats.

However, according to India TV – Ground Zero Research Exit Poll, it is the INC that will emerge as the single largest party with 49-59 seats, with AAP trailing as the second best with 27-37 seats. It gave SAD+BSP 20-30 seats, the BJP 2-6 seats, leaving 1-3 seats for others.

Meanwhile, the Deshbandhu Exit Poll predicts the at INC will win 62-68 seats, leaving the BJP biting the dust with 2-8 seats. It gives the SAD 22-28 and AAP 17-23, while others could get 0-4 seats.

Uttarakhand (70 Assembly seats)

There aren’t many surprises for Uttarakhand either. The north Indian state that has seen a revolving door of Chief ministers and was the site of a deeply communal Dharm Sansad, could go either way if two of the main exit polls are to be believed.

According to India Today – Axis My India Exit Poll, BJP could get 36-46 seats, with INC trailing at a close second with 20-30 seats. While Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) could get 2-4 seats, others could end up with 2-5 seats.

According to the ABP – C Voter Exit Poll, it is the INC that will have an edge over the BJP. This poll says the INC could get as many as 32-38 seats, while BJP could get 26-32 seats. Debutante AAP could get 0-2 seats, while the BSP and others could get 3-7 seats.

Interestingly, according to India TV-Ground Zero Research Exit Poll, the INC could get a comfortable majority with 37-41 seats, restricting the BJP to 25-29. It predicts that the AAP may not even be able to open its account, while others may win 2-4 seats.

It is noteworthy that the Deshbandhu Exit Poll predicts a victory for the INC with 40-46 seats and the BJP trailing with 22-28! AAP and others could get 0-2 each.

Uttar Pradesh (403 Assembly seats)

Because of the mammoth size of the UP Assembly, the half-way mark is 202. This is where the poll predictions become interesting, with some polls predicting thumping majority and landslide victories for the BJP, and others pointing towards a slimmer margin of victory with SP making considerable gains. Yet others are predicting a victory for the Samajwadi Party (SP).

India Today – Axis My India Exit Poll predicts a “landslide victory” for the BJP, saying it could win 288-326 seats, while the SP could win 71-101 seats. It also predicts that the BSP is unlikely to win seats in the double-digits.               

Meanwhile, the ABP – C Voter Exit Poll predicts that the BJP will retain power, but with a reduced majority. It gives the BJP 228-244 seats, while it predicts that SP will win 132-148 seats. It also predicts that Mayawati’s BSP will bag as many as 13-21 seats while the INC could get 4-8 seats.

India TV once again chose to go with two different predictions. According to the India TV-Ground Zero Research Exit Poll, BJP may win 180-220 seats, while Samajwadi Party may bag 168-208 seats. The BSP could get 2-12, Congress 2-8 and others could get 2-4 seats. Meanwhile, according to India TV-CNX Exit Poll, the BJP is set to retain power with 240-250 seats, a higher number of seats as compared to its own Ground Zero Research Exit Poll. The India TV-CNX Exit Poll also gives the SP 140-150 seats, and says BSP may bag 6-12 seats, Congress 2-4 and others may get 0-2 seats.

At the other end of the spectrum is the Deshbandhu UP Exit Poll, which predicts that the BJP will get 134-150 seats, while the SP will get 228-244 seats, taking them past the halfway mark! It gives the BSP 10-24 seats, and the INC 1-9 seats.

The final results will be declared after counting on March 10, 2022.

Related:

Assembly polls: 40,395 model code of conduct violations lodged with EC
Assembly Elections: Large turnout among women voters

The post Assembly Election Exit Polls: Will media pundits be proved wrong again? appeared first on SabrangIndia.

The mammoth eight phase assembly election has finally concluded in West Bengal and now it’s time for exit polls. Almost all polls predict that the power dynamic is unlikely to change in Assam and Kerala, though some say it could be a photo-finish in West Bengal. Let’s take a closer look at the various exit polls:

Assam:

There are a total of 126 seats in the Assam Assembly and the majority mark is 64. According to the exit poll by ABP-C Voter, the grand alliance led by the Congress could get between 53-66 seats, while the NDA will win anywhere between 58-71 seats. Others might end up with up to five seats at best. Meanwhile, the P-MARQ survey gives the Congress alliance between 56-64 seats, and the NDA 62-70, with up to four seats for others. Both these exit polls show the BJP led alliance holding on to power by a narrow margin.

But as per India Today-Axis My India poll, the margin of victory could be much greater for the BJP led alliance which could get as many as 75-85 seats, leaving the Congress led alliance with just 40-50 seats, while others get one to four seats. The Republic TV-CNX poll also predicts a decisive win for the NDA giving it as many as 74-84 seats with just 40-50 seats going to the Congress led alliance, as others get one to three seats.

Kerala:

In Kerala, all polls predict a win for Pinarayi Vijayan. The Kerala assembly has 140 seats and the majority mark is 72. As per the India Today-Axis My India exit poll, the LDF is all set to win 104-120 seats, with 20-36 seats going to the UDF. The NDA has been summarily trounced and is unlikely to get more than two seats at best. Republic-CNX also gives the LDF between 72-80 seats, with UDF getting between 58-64 seats. It predicts a more optimistic 1-5 seats for the NDA.

Puducherry:

The Union Territory of Puducherry has 30 seats with the majority mark as 16. Here, the Republic-CNX poll gives the BJP led NDA between 16-20 seats, while the Congress led SDA is projected to win 11-13 seats. Meanwhile, the ABP-C Voter poll gives the NDA 19-23 seats and the SDA around 6-10 seats leaving 1-2 seats for others. A change of ruling dispensation is thus expected here.

Tamil Nadu:

The 234 member Tamil Nadu Assembly has a majority mark at 118. According to the P-MARQ exit poll, the AIADMK alliance which is part of the wider NDA will win around 40-65, while the DMK-Congress-Left alliance gets 165-190 seats. This leaves the AMMK alliance with 1-3 seats. The Republic TV-CNX exit poll also makes similar predictions giving the AIADMK alliance between 58-68 seats and the DMK alliance between 160-170 seats. It gives the AMMK alliance between 4-6 seats. Thus, MK Stalin appears all set to dethrone AIADMK that was crippled by the absence of the late Jayalalitha.

West Bengal:

This was perhaps the most hotly contested election with incumbent Mamata Banerjee up against the full force of a highly motivated and resourceful BJP. Different exit polls predict different outcomes that range from an all-out victory for Banerjee to a photo finish with the BJP. There are a total of 294 assembly seats in the state with 148 being the majority mark.

The ETG Research poll gives the TMC 164-176 seats, giving the BJP between 105-115 seats, leaving the Congress-Left alliance with 10-15 seats. Meanwhile, the P-MARQ poll predicts TMC victory in 152-172 seats, while the BJP gets 112-132 seats, leaving the Congress-Left alliance with 10-20 seats. The results of the ABP C-Voter poll are also consistent with this with the TMC getting 152-164 seats, BJP between 109-121 seats and the Congress-Left alliance getting 14-25 seats. Similarly, the CNN News18 exit poll gives the TMC 162 seats, while BJP gets 115 and the Congress-Left alliance gets 15 seats.

But the findings of the Republic TV-CNX predict a dead heat of sorts. According to them, TMC will win 128-138 seats while the BJP could also get as many as 138-148 seats, leaving the Congress-Left alliance with 11-21 seats. Similarly, the India Today-Axis My India poll gives the TMC 130-156 seats and the BJP 134-160 seats, predicting yet another dead heat.

Jan ki Baat is the only exit poll that gives the BJP a clear majority with 162-185 seats and the TMC only 104-121 seats.

All eyes are now May 2 when counting of votes will take place.
 

Related:

Entry in counting centre only if tested negative or fully vaccinated: EC

EC bars victory celebrations on vote counting on May 2

The post Exit Polls give TMC an edge in West Bengal, BJP could retain Assam appeared first on SabrangIndia.