I soon realized 2050 is also when the ‘Hindu Rashtra’ –the mythical land of Hindu supremacy – which I prefer to call ‘Gobar Rashtra’ -or ‘Bullshit Nation’ –  will be fully established, as per my neighbor Mishraji’s claim. He should know, as it is his Rashtra after all – shared with a few Singhs and Agarwals – the rest of the nation comprised of second class citizens.

So, in 2050 when the Gobar Rashtra is finally and formally announced, in other words Amit Shah is crowned Emperor of Hindustan forever, – bingo! – global warming will incinerate him and all his followers to ashes, like dried cow fertilizer in fire! And that will leave the rest of us at peace to chase the latest Apple gizmos with our meagre savings.

Ok … I agree the rising temperature in New Delhi – both literally and politically- has started affecting my brain badly. But the point of recounting this loony idea of global warming zapping the Gobar Rashtra is simply that:

a) There are hell of a lot of other things happening in India and globally that are worse than a bunch of right-wing thugs winning (or stealing) elections. I mean it is not the end of the world like climate change threatens to be. So, let us put the 2019 Indian election results in some perspective.

b) To think of events and trends we don’t like as doomsday scenarios is invitation for personal paralysis. There is no point in giving up well before the enemy has stabbed you in the heart, shot you in the brain and poisoned your digestive system for good measure. We will fight these blokes and ‘blokinis’ (the ugly Sadhvis I mean) till the very end.

c) The real challenge we face is what are we supposed to do between now and 2050, when all life ends – it promises to be the longest 30 years ever in human history. It is a good idea to start working immediately.

One reason I am compelled to dwell on this theme of global warming and Gobar Rashtra is really because of a conversation I had a few days ago with a journalist in New Delhi. It went something like this:

“How are you?”, she said. An innocuous enough question.

Despite the terrible heat that afternoon, my polite response was, ‘I am quite well, thank you’.

“Oh! You are fine despite the election results?” she retorted, with an accusatory look, reserved for traitors who survive in the midst of a massacre.

Taken aback, all I could mutter was ‘Well, I am sorry I am not yet dead”, before moving on.

I understood she was deeply upset, but the assumption behind her question was also disturbingly strange – the sweeping victory of Narendra Modi in the 2019 elections meant everything was lost in the battle against Saffron Fascism now. And the way to deal with the situation was to roll in dust and writhe with visible pain. I suppose the logic was, such public display of suffering would magically convert into a national and even global moral force, that would oust Modi and Co.  from power.

I quite strongly beg to differ. The way to beat Saffron Fascism does not lie in self-flagellation, lamentation and going around looking like a martyr well before someone has actually killed you.  A better response may be to do something about it through brutally honest, self-critical analysis; good quality research; building organization; and relentless engagement with social issues.

I mean is there any shortage of battles to be fought in this dump of a nation that India has been for so long? Even as I write this, the headline news on my TV screen is of over 100 children in Bihar’s Muzaffarpur who have allegedly died of encephalitis – I say allegedly because no one still has a clue what’s really happening. On the other hand, in Bengal doctors are striking because – forgive the pun – patients have been striking them too often. The truth being that both doctors and patients struggle routinely with overcrowded hospitals, abysmal infrastructure, shortage of health personnel – apart from lack of trust between all involved.

In other news, there are people getting stabbed in a metro like Chennai, fighting over meagre supplies of water as industries and hotels shut down due to the crisis. In Bundelkhand the drought situation is far worse, but they have no software firms to close down, so the media ignores them completely.

While epidemics and droughts happen once in a while, on a more routine basis a huge number of problems plague Indian citizens – stark poverty, malnutrition, air pollution, road accidents, occupational health hazards, ecological degradation, violence against women, exploitation of children, caste discrimination – the list is truly endless.

Not one of these issues is going to figure on the agenda of the Gobar Rashtra types – in fact their aim is to obfuscate and hide the real causes of many of these problems – from wealth inequality, the racism of Hindu upper castes, corporate manipulation of policy making and in the more global context – India’s growing role as the ‘coolie’ of US and Western imperialism.

If all these burning issues are going to go completely unaddressed by the incumbent government or politicians- who exactly is supposed to douse them? Can this be an opportunity for those opposed to the Gobar Rashtra to do something about it? I know you and I are not in power and we have very few resources on hand – but how the hell do you expect to change political realities or come to power any day, if not by tackling these problems now?

While many of the issues mentioned above are typically linked to ensuring efficient governance or allocation of resources – there are larger conceptual issues also that need to be taken up by those, who may not be able to put boots on the ground but can apply mind to complex questions.  These are the so-called ‘narrative’ – the big and long picture –  that motivates and guides people to work, converting them into unpaid rebels for a cause – whatever that cause may be.

Do we have a clear conception of what is India, where it is coming from and where do we want it to go? What exactly is our story of India – beyond the tired rhetoric of ‘unity in diversity’, the pretense that ‘all Indians are born equal’ or the fantasy that all will be well ‘if only the Constitution were properly implemented’? Does India need to remain one country or a loose federation of many nations? How about declaring Adivasis as the original people of India and registering everyone else as foreign citizens? What about forging a political union with the rest of South Asia? How is the surge of right-wing fascism in India linked to similar trends around the world?  Can we shut down Facebook and Twitter completely to recover our peace of mind while denying the enemy their favorite weapons of mass distraction?

How do we beat the ‘stickiness’ of the caste system, especially in its graded inequality avatar – in which the oppressed constantly turn against each other?Can we pass a law to confiscate all savarna property – since they claim to be born ‘superior’, why do they need any additional form of wealth?  What are those ‘bunch of thoughts’ and set of actions we need to flush Saffron Fascism down the toilet sink? Do we know enough about our opponents and how they operate for us to be able to strategize their defeat?

Some things we do know, among them being what drives the hardcore Hindutva activist –  primarily a quest for savarna or upper-caste Hindu supremacy. This is sought to be achieved by whipping up nostalgia for ancient ‘Vedic’ glory, high-decibel claims of making India a global power and a pseudo-nationalism, which aims to pulverize Pakistan and all other ‘foes of the nation’ – with sheer sound energy.

That these characters are essentially cowards and bullies is evident from their using Indian Muslims and other religious minorities as scapegoats to cover up their own lack of talent in anything except telling cock and bull stories or doing hit-and-run attacks on unarmed targets.  In fact, it is precisely their deep sense of inferiority and weakness,that provokes them into exaggerated displays of patriotic frenzy and tall claims about their own size, strength or influence. ‘Where was your holy Vishnu chakra when Mahmud Ghazni came raiding Gujarat? No, the Congress was not in power then, but Amit Shah and Modi’s ancestors must have surely been in hiding!’

And while on the subject, let me say what I really think about the very idea of the ‘Hindu’a.k.a ‘Gobar Rashtra’. It is nothing but a cunning myth, that has been created by savarna ideologues to rally supporters and scare opponents. “Ooh! The Hindu Rashtra cometh – lefties, Muslims, Christians, Adivasis, Dalits – go hide!”

No, I am not at all  denying the growing assertion of Saffron Fascist groups all around or the dangers they pose – particularly to minority populations- but only pointing  to the psychological warfare dimension  behind the term ‘Hindu Rashtra’. The more you use the term as if it were a reality, the faster it becomes a reality – like an ancient Hindu demon that springs to life with every drop of blood you spill from it. The very first step in resisting the ‘Hindu Rashtra’ is to just ignore it – stop giving it any recognition or currency – cut off its supply of oxygen in the form of free publicity. If you want, call it the ‘Gobar Rashtra’ like I do.

And instead of getting mesmerized like frogs before a snake – do realize if you can stay calm and coolly deconstruct these Knickers from Nagpur, who want to reestablish Peshwa rule in India – they are an eminently beatable lot. The British whipped the Peshwas so badly two centuries ago that they remain the best of friends till today – there is nary a whimper against our most recent colonial masters from these ‘warrior Brahmins’.

And while I don’t have much hope from the Gobar Rashtra’s leftist or centrist opponents, who are too confused or compromised today, I do think it is only a matter of time before their bluff will be called by new political forces rising from Indian soil – aided by all of us taking up as big a part of the puzzle as we can handle in one go.

And I think we can easily do all this well in time before 2050. We just can’t allow the Amit Shahs of the world to have their gobar cake and heat it too!

Satya Sagar is a public health worker and journalist who can be reached at sagarnama@gmail.com

Courtesy: Counter Current

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Deaths due to heat wave are reported usually without classifying their state of ‘class’ or ‘caste’ . If carefully analyzed most of those who die are from dalit and marginalised sections who work ceaselessly throughout summer for their daily bread and face risk of sun- strokes.

Consequences
The amount of overall heat energy trapped by greenhouse gasses is jaw- dropping. Between 1971 and 2010, the IPCC’s Assessment Report tells us that earth gained 274 million million billion Joules. As James Hansen said, this is ‘ equivalent to exploding 400,000 Hiroshima Atomic bombs per day 365 days per year. Since 1970, the energy trapped is equivalent to four Hiroshima bombs per second. Thus, the consequences of global warming are very grave and need to be addressed quickly and serious measures should be taken to reduce loss of life.

Estimates
The number of people dying due to heatwaves has been on the increase. In the last decade, with over 2,000 people being reported dead during 2015 heatwave in India. A paper published in ‘Science Advances’ establishes a mammoth 146 per cent increase in the probability of heat – related mortality in India due to the increase summer mean temperatures. Rising global temperatures are leading to extreme weather climate conditions like droughts, floods heatwaves, etc. The rise of temperature has been 0.5 degree Celsius over last 50 years.

In 2010, Russia had 55,736 deaths due to heat wave in June. The costliest heat wave occurred in China in 2008 with estimated damage of 21.2 billion  US$. In Italy, heat wave (2003) caused over20,000 deaths.

No assistance
During summer, the vulnerable sections face lot of suffering and diseases due to heat and humidity. They do not have proper health- care mechanism nor do they have provision of food and clean water. The slum dwellers , mostly SCs and STs or OBCs, have no proper shelters during day time. The women and their babies have insufficient protection from heat and are often exposed to hot air in the day. Governments  have done little to assist these sections. They have no income to take precautionary measures.  Even the supply of ORS packets is inadequate.
The labourers, especially women, lead pathetic lives. They have little time to protect their bodies from heat because of the nature of work. There is no policy for these people to protect themselves from such manual work that demands hours of exposure to the sun. Their labor goes unnoticed.

Social activists should take up their travails and tribulations in a proactive way and put pressure on rulers to frame policies which give them help in summer and restrain them in working in sweltering heat without any minimum protection. Some sort of economic social and medical benefits programmes should be formulated to tackle intense heat by the marginalised  sections.
—
Courtesy: Counter View

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What do we want … when do we want it? Now. Etienne Laurent/EPA

Although the conference itself is open to selected state representatives only, many see the week as an opportunity to influence and define the climate action agenda for the coming year, with protests planned outside the conference halls.

A crucial role of environmental activists is to shift the public discourse around climate change and to put pressure on state representatives to act boldly. COP24 offers a rare platform on which to drive a step change in the position of governments on climate change.

However, many environmental movements in Europe are not offering the critical analysis and radical narratives needed to achieve a halt to climate change.

Growing pains

By now most people agree that greenhouse gas emissions (including CO₂) are the proximate driver of climate change, and that climate change is not only a future problem, but is already causing significant environmental and social problems across the world. Further, the trend in global CO₂ emissions still appears to be increasing, driven largely by consumption in advanced and emerging economies.

Economic growth measures the increase in the amount of goods and services produced by an economy over time, and it has historically been tightly coupled to CO₂ emissions. Decoupling these two factors is not impossible, and indeed many leading academics argue that the power of human ingenuity will solve the climate crisis. However, this is certainly unlikely in the timescales needed to tackle climate change in a just and equitable way.

Economic growth and carbon emissions are closely linked. International Energy Agency

Practically, what this means is that as long as economic growth continues to expand rapidly and indefinitely, so too will the quantity of CO₂ in the atmosphere and the associated environmental and social impacts.

To address climate change, therefore, we must address the root cause of this planetary ailment: the ideology of growth first, growth always. By moving away from growth-oriented societies in Europe and other advanced economies, towards ones that prioritise environmental and social health, we stand the slimmest chance of solving our climate crisis, while still allowing the poorest economies globally to meet their economic needs.

From outrage to strategy

Recent environmental movements demanding action on climate change, like the Extinction Rebellion in the UK and the Ende Gelande Alliance in Germany, don’t seem to take a clear stance on the role of economic growth in driving climate change. They don’t identify our unwavering commitment to the dogma of infinite economic growth as the driving force behind climate change, and as the reason that our efforts thus far have been impotent to stop the growing tidal wave of CO₂ emissions.

In the UK, the Extinction Rebellion has captured the public’s attention and gathered widespread support and media coverage over the past few weeks, with their outraged cries for government action.

Extinction Rebellion made the news but are they asking for the world? Facundo Arrizabalaga/EPA

However, their demands are broad and unspecific, asking for “net zero [carbon emissions] by 2025”. They make no mention of how the UK government might achieve this, but link to other websites which offer potential routes for reaching this target.

The sites suggested by the Extinction Rebellion promote ideas such as green growth and a green new deal. These ideas are founded on the premise that we can achieve both continually high rates of economic growth and reduce our impact on the planet. Sadly, the evidence (and a dash of common sense) tells us that this is not yet happening, and is unlikely to be possible in the near future. So what should groups like Extinction Rebellion do?

The way forward

It would currently be considered political madness to advocate for policies that might unintentionally, or intentionally, limit economic growth. Unfortunately, however, without a wider critique of the toxic relationship between climate change and economic growth, governments will be almost powerless to achieve any net zero targets they set.

At COP24 environmental movements have an opportunity to use their platform to highlight the relationship between economic growth and environmental impact, and even to discuss radical alternative futures that are not dependent on a growth-based economy.
Importantly, this doesn’t have to be considered a sacrifice. The relationship between economic growth and happiness in wealthy economies is at best complicated, and at worst nonexistent. This demonstrates the possibility of finding paths to climate stability that do not diminish our quality of life.

By identifying the root cause of climate change, and our inability to address it, these groups can go further than demanding action. They can change public mindsets, put pressure on national governments and point to a shared way forward. Here, we have our best shot at limiting the damage of climate change in a meaningful and timely way.
 

Christine Corlet Walker, PhD Candidate, University of Surrey

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Indrasan peak in September 2018

The 23-year-old hails from a village called Banara, perched 4,000 feet above sea level at a two-hour driving distance from Manali, the famous mountain city in Himachal Pradesh. As tourists throng to the region’s cooler climes and picturesque scenery, most of Sharma’s family and fellow villagers work as cooks, drivers or trek guides, their livelihoods supplemented by the region’s bountiful apple orchards.

Warming climes threaten both the apple and tourism industries.
“Last year we produced close to 150 boxes of apples. This year we produced only 50,” Sharma told IndiaSpend. In 2018, the region saw early and heavy snowfall in the first week of October, freezing rivers and stranding hundreds of people, posing a danger for the tourism and trekking industry.
Sharma and his fellow villagers are among the 600 million Indians at risk from the fallout of a rise in global mean temperature.

The earth’s temperature is rising by 0.2 degree Celsius every decade, according to the October 6, 2018, report of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). By 2030 and no later than mid-century, the warming will reach 1.5 degree Celsius when compared to pre-industrial age temperatures. This is likely to lead to a water, food and disease crisis that would affect livelihoods and lives, the report warns.

This is the first story in our series on how climate change is disrupting people’s lives. The series combines ground reporting from India’s climate change hotspots with the latest scientific research, and will also highlight how people are adapting to the changing climate.  

Why the Himalayas matter
The Himalayas stretch for 2,500 km from west to east, spanning eight countries–Afghanistan, Pakistan, China, India, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. Nine of the world’s 10 highest peaks, including Mount Everest, the highest, are here. Ten of Asia’s largest rivers originate here, three of which–the Indus, the Ganga and the Brahmaputra–flow through India.

Nearly 70% of the water in rivers such as the Indus and the Ganga comes from the melting of Himalayan glaciers in the summer. The rest is from the monsoon rains.

It is this water that makes life and agriculture sustainable for 50 million people such as Sharma who live in the Indian Himalayan region. An estimated 1.5 billion people depend on the Himalayas for water, food and energy.

Now, climate change is threatening their livelihoods, their ways of living, and their very survival.

Karan Sharma, 23, talks about the impact of climate change on his livelihood and that of others in his village.

“Climate change in the Himalayas is happening rapidly, in real time,” Thamban Meloth, a researcher heading an ongoing study that began in 2013, told IndiaSpend. Scientists from the National Centre for Antarctic and Ocean Research (NCAOR), Goa, and the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Delhi, are jointly conducting this study for the Indian ministry of earth sciences. The study is examining how global warming is affecting some of the 9,579 glaciers in the Himalayan region.

The Himalayas also impact weather circulation of the region, said A.P. Dimri of the School of Environmental Sciences at the Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), Delhi, who has been studying the region for close to two decades. “Himalayas is a very vibrant system and there are a lot of drivers of change,” he said.

Higher snowline, retreating glaciers
Several times in a month, Sharma treks up to altitudes of 14,000 feet. The changes he sees in the mountains are stark. New trees and fruits never seen before are sprouting up. Pest attacks on apple orchards are becoming more frequent. The summers in the Himalayas are hotter than the locals have ever lived through, he says, and the snowfall during the winters increasingly erratic and lighter. “When I was a child, in winters we would have waist-high snowfall. Our homes would be buried in snow. Now there are times we only get inches of snowfall,” he said.
Studies have shown that climate change is pushing up the odds of extreme events such as avalanches.

“The locals are observing that the snowline is moving upward across the Himalayan range,” said Lakshmi Selvakumaran of Indiahikes, a Bengaluru-based trekking organisation that runs close to two dozen treks across the Himalayan range and is also documenting environmental issues in the region. The snowline is an imaginary line running across the mountain range above which the snow falls, and differs for different parts of the Himalayas. One now has to go higher to see snow.

Himalayan glaciers are a key component of the 75% of all freshwater on earth that exists in a frozen state. Called the cryosphere, this is the second largest influencer of the global climate system, but is also one of the least studied. Outside of the North and South poles, the glaciers in the Himalayas form the most important concentration of snow.

What sets the Himalayan glaciers apart from the ones found at the poles is that they are not clear sheets of ice but have dust and debris in them. In some areas in the region, the glaciers are hidden below a layer of rock and dust.

“The dust and debris absorb more solar radiation causing the ice to melt faster,” Meloth told IndiaSpend. But if the layer of debris is too thick, it insulates the ice from heat and thus melting, making it a very complex relationship.

While some of these glaciers are the size of a cricket field, others are as large as entire cities, spanning hundreds of square kilometres. They move, although at a very slow pace, retreating or advancing, depending on the amount of fresh snowfall every year.

The study led by Meloth has found that while in some areas the glaciers are retreating by three metres every year, at others by as much as 40 metres, equivalent to the height of a 12-storey building. Since it is difficult to measure the exact thickness of glacial ice, scientists only have an estimate of the amount.

Josh Maurer, a PhD student at the Earth Institute in New York, has used declassified US military satellite images from the Cold War era and compared them to images post 2000 to map the changes in the Himalayan glaciers between Nepal and Sikkim. “The rates of the melting of ice from the year 2000 to present is twice as fast as the period between 1975 and 2000,” Maurer said.  

River basins threatened
What does this mean for the rivers fed by Himalayan glaciers?

“Modelling studies have shown that with the current warming rate, the amount of snow and glacier melt water in major rivers systems of Ganges, Brahmaputra and Indus [will] increase in the coming decades,” Meloth told IndiaSpend. “But in the second half of the 21st century, as majority of the glaciers melt, the discharge in the rivers could drastically decrease. Such major changes in glacier meltwater to the Himalayan rivers could hugely affect the water security and sustainability in these basins.”

At the moment some of this water from the melting of glaciers is stored in high-altitude lakes that act as natural dams. When the water flow to these lakes increases, it could cause floods.

To monitor the changing climate closely, the Indian government has set up a high-altitude station named Himansh in Spiti at an altitude of 13,500 feet.

These changes matter to farmers growing apples in the region because apple production needs a prolonged winter. When the snow moves up, the apple orchards must too. But this is practically not possible.

High altitude lakes such as the Chandratal at a height of 16,000 feet above sea level in Spiti district act as natural dams for melting glacier water. As melting speeds up, these natural dams could overflow and cause floods.

How lives are disrupted: The case of dropping apple production
A 2013 study in Himachal Pradesh found that most apple farmers reported a decline in production and delayed harvest, blaming reduced snowfall. Nearly 80% of the farmers living at an altitude of 8,000 feet reported a noticeable decrease in snowfall and nearly 90% of those living at altitudes of 9,800 feet and higher said the same. They also reported frequent pest attacks.

India is the world’s fifth largest producer of apples. Of the 2.3 million metric tonnes of apples that India produces annually, nearly 60% are grown in Jammu and Kashmir and the rest in Himachal Pradesh and, to a smaller extent, in Uttarakhand.
Apple constitutes 80% of Himachal Pradesh’s entire fruit production. The state has been increasing the area under apple cultivation but the yield per hectare is falling, the study found.

Warmer temperatures affect fruit production, and Himalayan temperatures are rising.

“The number of days that the snow is falling in the Himalayas is decreasing,” Dimri said, adding that the rate of warming is higher at higher elevations.

According to the October 2018 IPCC report, those involved in agriculture are at a disproportionately higher risk of facing the adverse consequences of global warming. The report warns that this will mean that a large number of people in Asia and Africa could slide into poverty.
If India wants to arrest these changes, the IPCC report says, it will have to work with the global community to cut carbon emissions by more than half in the next decade. Using coal for energy production will have to drop by 78% while 60% of the electricity will have to come from renewable resources.

Meloth, however, makes a more realistic point: The climate is changing and society must prepare. Looking for adaptation strategies and ingenious ways is the way forward. In Ladakh, for instance, engineer and innovator Sonam Wangchuk has devised a way to use what is excess runoff water in the summer–by storing this water in the form of ice stupas in the winter, it is made available for use in summer months.

(Disha Shetty is a Columbia Journalism School-IndiaSpend reporting fellow covering climate change.)

Courtesy: India Spend
 

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Climate science is a complex discipline, yet politicians, economists and journalists appear to believe they understand it, rushing to conclusions based on partial knowledge or ignorance. Lately government members have been referring to climate science as an “ideology”.  Looking at the plethora of misconceptions regarding the accelerating climate crisis in the atmosphere-ocean-land system, it is not clear where to start.:
 

1. Linear temperature rise projections issued by the IPCC summaries for policy makers take little account of the non-linear to abrupt behaviour of atmospheric conditions, as indicated by sharp climate instabilities during the last glacial-interglacial ages, consequent of amplifying feedbacks from land and ocean.IPCC reports, based on credible scientific peer review papers, have been prefaced bysummaries for policymakers, in part edited by governmentrepresentatives. Consequently the urgency of the climate crisis has been underestimated. Temperature goals such as 1.5^oC or 2.0^oC constitute political goals, not science-based values.The concentration of atmospheric CO₂+Methane of >450 ppm is driving amplifying feedbacks to global warming, namely from warming oceans, melting ice, methane release, fires, desiccated vegetation, push temperatures upwards – unless and until a method is found to draw-down atmospheric CO₂.

B, By analogy a measurements of a patient’s body temperature after they have taken a dose of aspirin, measurements of terrestrial temperatures under the masking effect of a high concentration of sulphur aerosols does not give a true measure of atmospheric temperature. For example, following the post 9/11 cessation of air traffic and of contrails over the US, measured temperatures rose significantly. When taking account of this discrepancy, mean global temperatures are tracking closer 2 degrees Celsius (Hansen et al. 2008. Target atmospheric CO₂: Where should humanity aim?https://arxiv.org/abs/0804.1126)

C. For the above reasons,talk of restricting mean global temperatures to any particular figure, such as 1.5^oC or 2^oC above preindustrial levels, ignores the scientific evidence as to how the atmosphere behaves.The “Paris target” of 1.5^oC is meaningless since: (1) no mechanism is known to arrest amplifying feedbacks rom rising above this limit, and (2) no plans for draw-down of atmospheric CO₂ appear to be at hand, the $trillions required for such endeavor being spent on the military and wars.
Rarely has the full extent of the climate catastrophe been conveyed by the mainstream media, including the ABC, as contrasted with the proliferation of pseudo-science infotainment programs, where attractive celebrities promote space travel.Rarely do the major panels include scientists.

Given a 2 to 3-fold rise in extreme weather events, signs of the impending global climate tipping points are everywhere, from hurricane-hit Caribbean islands and southeast US, to cyclone-ravaged and sea level rise-affected southwest Pacific islands, to flooded south Asian regions such as Kerala and Pakistan, to fire-devastated regions in southern Europe and California, to the Australian and east African droughts. The list goes on. To date it is estimated some 400,000 deaths arelinked to climate change each year (https://newrepublic.com/article/121032/map-climate-change-kills-more-people-worldwide-terrorism)

Yet the warnings are shunned, in particular in rich western countries. Whenever the term “future” is expressed in the mainstream media and in Parliaments, it is rare that a caveat is made regarding the effects of global warming, Should there be a future investigation of those who have been, continue to, promote and preside over the rise in carbon emissions, with the consequent climate calamity,this would be recorded by survivors as the greatest crime ever perpetrated by the Homo “sapiens”.

 
“To ignore evil is to become an accomplice” (Martin Luther King)

Andrew Glikson, Earth and paleo-climate scientist

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Vehicles ply in reduced visibility in south Delhi as smog enveloped the city with a spike in particulate pollution. Over the last one month, residents of the national capital territory of Delhi should have received an alert every day, warning them that air quality readings were breaching acceptable levels.
 
Over eight days to October 16, 2017, as Delhi’s air quality worsened, reaching 10-12 times above safe limits set by the World Health Organization (WHO), the government ignored its own plan, which also included a clean-up of the air. Officials should have, among other things, enforced pollution controls on thermal power plants, sprinkled water on roads to curb dust and curbed traffic jams.
 
Over the last one month, Delhi residents should have received an alert every day, warning them that air quality index (AQI) readings were breaching danger levels. Since October 8, 2017, air-quality levels crossed  “poor” eight times, “very poor to severe” 21 times and “emergency” once, as they have for 48 hours to November 8, 2017, according to data from the government’s own alert system, the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP).
 
“The Government had enough time to implement GRAP and systematically issue health advisories as per the action plan guidelines,” said independent researcher Aishwarya Madineni, who analysed the Central Pollution Control Board’s AQI readings. “However, the effort to create public awareness and alert the citizens to safeguard their health only happened after reaching an emergency situation.”
 

 

A plan ready to be implemented–except it was not
 
After Delhi witnessed its worst smog in 17 years in 2016, the CPCB, under directions from the Supreme Court, submitted the GRAP to address the air-pollution crisis gripping the national capital region, particularly in winter.
 
While the ministry of environment, forests and climate change cleared the GRAP on January 12, 2017, the plan received approval from the nodal Environment Pollution Control Authority on October 18, 2017–10 months later.
 
Based on national air-quality index (AQI) readings generated by CPCB air-quality monitors, the GRAP system categorises pollution levels as “good” (AQI reading of 0-50), “satisfactory” (50-100),  “moderate” (100-200), “poor” (200-300), “very poor” (300-400), and “severe” (400-500). Each grade of pollution involves curbs to prevent escalation. This is how it is supposed to work:

An AQI reading of over 500 is considered to an “emergency” and involves a shutdown of most outdoor activities. These measures are not new to authorities–they were recommended by a Indian Institute of Kanpur (IIT)-Kanpur report submitted to the Delhi government in January 2016, as IndiaSpend reported on November 10, 2016.
 
What the government should have done but did not
 
Air quality in Delhi began to dip from “moderate” to “poor” in the first week of October 2017 and proceeded to worsen.
 
Apart from curbing traffic, enforcing pollution standards on power plants and sprinkling water to curb dust, the government also should have made citizens aware of pollution levels using social media and mobile apps.
 
With the start of Diwali, air quality considerably worsened. From October 17 to November 6, 2017, the region recorded “very poor” air quality, 12-15 times above WHO limits, as we said.
 
On Diwali day, October 20, 2017, CPCB monitors in the national capital region recorded “severe” levels of pollution with an AQI reading of 403–16 times above WHO limits, suggesting poor implementation of the SC ban on firecrackers.
 

Source: Central Pollution Control Board
 
Over the last three weeks, government authorities, as per their own plan, should have also issued health advisory alerts for vulnerable populations or young children and senior citizens, banned use of diesel-run generators, raised parking fees, increased public transport services, and banned the use of firewood and coal.
 
Why GRAP cannot work unless various agencies work together
 
To be successful, most components of the GRAP require concerted and coordinated efforts from various agencies and bodies spread across the national capital region (NCR) and neighbouring states.
 
“GRAP has an ambitious set of measures under each category of alerts to be issued with action extending to Haryana, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh,” said Madineni. “Yet, the system does not mention a proper mitigation plan for addressing crop fires across the NCR states, to which the evidence clearly attributes a 25% rise in the pollution levels. The fireworks ban for Diwali was also a complete eyewash with little or no implementation bringing us to the emergency situation we are in today.”
 
(Saldanha is an assistant editor with IndiaSpend. Data inputs by Aishwarya Patil, an intern with IndiaSpend.)
 

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