On September 17, 2024, at around 15.30 hours local time, thousands of pagers were simultaneously detonated in Lebanon, killing 12 people and inflicting injuries on about 3,000 others. Outside of Lebanon, 14 people were injured in similar blasts in neighbouring Syria.

Although the attacks appeared to be a complex Israeli operation targeting Hezbollah, “an enormous amount of civilian casualties were also reported, as the detonations occurred wherever members’ pagers happened to be — including homes, cars, grocery stores and cafes.”

That was not all. The following day, at around 17.00 hrs local time, several other hand-held devices were targeted, including walkie-talkie radios, mobile phones, laptops, etc., killing 20 more people and injuring about 450 others. The indelible marks of Israel’s dirty tricks departments were very much discernable behind these terrorist attacks, as is evident from the following report from CNN:

“…CNN has learned that the explosions were the result of a joint operation by Israel’s intelligence service, Mossad, and the Israeli military. Israel’s defense minister, Yoav Gallant, tacitly acknowledged his country’s role the day after the pager attack, praising “excellent achievements, together with the Shin Bet, together with Mossad.”

Shell Company

Apparently about five months ago, Hezbollah had procured about 5,000 new pagers from a Taiwanese company ‘Gold Apollo’ that were actually manufactured and sold by a company based in Budapest, Hungary, which had a license to use its brand on the pagers. However, the New York Times [‘How Israel Built a Modern-Day Trojan Horse: Exploding Pagers’, 20.09.2024] has uncovered that, for all intents and purposes, the Hungarian company was just a shell company:

“By all appearances, B.A.C. Consulting was a Hungary-based company that was under contract to produce the devices on behalf of a Taiwanese company, Gold Apollo. In fact, it was part of an Israeli front, according to three intelligence officers briefed on the operation. They said at least two other shell companies were created as well to mask the real identities of the people creating the pagers: Israeli intelligence officers.

B.A.C. did take on ordinary clients, for which it produced a range of ordinary pagers. But the only client that really mattered was Hezbollah, and its pagers were far from ordinary. Produced separately, they contained batteries laced with the explosive PETN, according to the three intelligence officers.

The pagers began shipping to Lebanon in the summer of 2022 in small numbers, but production was quickly ramped up after Mr. Nasrallah denounced cellphones.”

Implanting and exploding as little as 3 grams of PETN (Pentaerythritol tetranitrate – a stable high explosive chemical compound) in each device was sufficient to cause havoc. Similarly, the handheld radio sets were also recently procured purportedly from a company with logos of the Japanese manufacturer ‘Icom’.

According to the Associated Press (AP): “A sales executive at the U.S. subsidiary of Japanese walkie-talkie maker Icom told the AP that the exploded radio devices in Lebanon appear to be a knock-off product and not made by Icom.” Apparently, Israeli intelligence agencies had succeeded in implanting the explosive devices into the walkie-talkie sets and other electronic items before they reached Lebanon.

Attacks Condemned

Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati condemned the attack as “a serious violation of Lebanese sovereignty and a crime by all standards”, according to the state-run NNA news outlet. UN’s Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), through a statement issued on September 19, 2024, also condemned the blasts in no uncertain terms:

 “UN human rights experts today condemned the malicious manipulation of thousands of electronic pagers and radios to explode simultaneously across Lebanon and Syria as “terrifying” violations of international law….

‘To the extent that international humanitarian law applies, at the time of the attacks there was no way of knowing who possessed each device and who was nearby,’ the experts said.

‘Simultaneous attacks by thousands of devices would inevitably violate humanitarian law, by failing to verify each target, and distinguish between protected civilians and those who could potentially be attacked for taking a direct part in hostilities.’

‘Such attacks could constitute war crimes of murder, attacking civilians, and launching indiscriminate attacks, in addition to violating the right to life,’ the experts said.”

Humanitarian law additionally prohibits the use of booby-traps disguised as apparently harmless portable objects where specifically designed and constructed with explosives – and this could include a modified civilian pager, the experts said.”

‘Masterstroke’

On the contrary, India’s Chief of the Army Staff, General Upendra Dwivedi, in a TV interview with Firstpost’s Managing Editor, Palki Sharma, has expressed views that are shocking. General Dwivedi has actually praised the methods adopted by Israel to carry out its terrorist attacks as a “masterstroke”. This is clear from the text of the relevant excerpts from the video clip of the said TV interview that is reproduced below. Palki Sharma did ask a very pertinent question to the General.

Q: Palki Sharma [at 0.15 seconds of the video clip]:

“It seems some disturbing precedence being set in this conflict [in West Asia], including the use of everyday gadgets and turning pagers and walkie-talkies into bombs and it makes people think everywhere in the world that we are all carrying some gadgets or the other at all points and we are all sitting ducks. So does India share this concern about these methods and what are we doing to ensure that we are not at the receiving end of something like this?”

A: Army Chief [at 01.36 minutes of the clip]:

“In this case Israel has decided very clearly that Hamas is primarily focus, which I must maintain. So what is done is completely firstly wipeout Hamas opposition. Thereafter, it said okay let us see on the other side. And if you see the pager what you are talking about it is a Taiwan company being supplied to a Hungarian company. Hungarian company thereafter giving it to them. The shell company, which has been created, is something, which is a masterstroke by the Israelis. And for that it requires years and years of preparation. So it means they were prepared for it. And that is what it counts. That the war does not start the way you start fighting; it starts the day you start planning. And that is what is most important. So they had planned all these activities and what they did firstly they made sure that the pagers get blasted people get injured people died. Okay, now what happens? Perforce now you have to shift to mobile. The movement you shift to mobile what happens your signals are getting triangulated…. [At 02.58 minute] Coming to our side, yes the same threat arises. So supply chain interruption, interception, is something we have to be very watchful. So we have to have various levels of inspection on all these issues whether at the technological level or as well as manual level also to make sure that such things do not get repeated in our case.”

Shocking Views

The interviewer had asked a pointed question: “So does India share this concern about these methods?” She was referring specifically to “some disturbing precedence being set in this conflict [in West Asia]”. However, the Army Chief desisted from responding to this specific query. Instead, he went on to praise the methods Israel had adopted to execute its terrorist attacks:

“The shell company, which has been created [to carry out the terrorist attacks], is something, which is a masterstroke by the Israelis. And for that it requires years and years of preparation. So it means they were prepared for it. And that is what counts. That the war does not start the day you start fighting; it starts the day you start planning. And that is what is most important. So they had planned all these activities and what they did firstly they made sure that the pagers get blasted people get injured people died.”

The Army Chief did not express any “concern” about the methods used; the General remained totally unmoved by the “disturbing precedence being set”! He chose to eulogise not condemn Israel’s terrorist acts. However, the General did dwell on the precautionary steps that India should take to safeguard its security and ward off such threats.

India’s Principled Stand

How could the Army Chief have been oblivious to the fact that India was a ‘High Contracting Party’ to the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons of 1981, which prohibits the use of booby-trap weapons, and had ratified the same on March 1, 1984?

How is it possible that the Ministry of External Affairs had never briefed the General regarding India’s considered position as a ‘High Contracting Party’ on the matter, which India reiterates before the UN every year? For example, in 2007, India’s position regarding Protocol–II to the CCW was as follows:

“In stipulating that mines, booby traps or other devices must not be targeted against civilians or civilian objects or used indiscriminately, the Protocol effectively applies the core principles of the CCW Convention concerning the prohibition on the use of weapons that are indiscriminate and the prohibition on the use of weapons of a nature that cause unnecessary suffering or superfluous injury.”

UN’s Office for Disarmament Affairs had made it very clear that:

“By ratifying the CCW, States commit to the: …Prohibition and regulation of the use and transfer of non-detectable anti-personnel mines, boobytraps, and other devices;…”

Apparently, the General was also unaware that Israel had carried out the terrorist attacks despite having acceded to the CCW on March 22, 1995, which is nothing but display of utter contempt for even the treaties that Israel professes to abide by.

GoI Should Explain

It is amply clear that the Army Chief had made pronouncements that are wholly contrary to the principled stand adopted by the Government of India before the United Nations for the last 53 years. Or has the Government of India reversed its principled stand and decided to tacitly support the terrorist attacks perpetrated by the Israeli regime?

Anyway, the Government of India is not only duty bound to explain why it has refrained from condemning the terrorist attacks perpetrated by the Israeli regime on Lebanon on September 17 and 18, 2024 but also clarify how the Army Chief could have made statements that are wholly contrary to India’s principled stand against use of booby-trap weapons.

Booby Trap Attacks in India

The Army Chief’s admiration for methods used by Israel to perpetrate booby-trap attacks is all the more bizarre because India itself has been a victim of such terrorist acts on numerous occasions for the past several decades and is continuing to face such threats. The most infamous of such attacks include: (a) the serial ‘transistor bomb blasts’ of May 10/11,1985 in Delhi, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh that killed 85 people and injured another 150; (b) the Mumbai serial blasts of 1993 that killed 257 people and inflicted injuries on 1,400 others; and the serial train blasts of July 11, 2006 in Mumbai that killed 189 people and injured over 800 others. Furthermore, ‘Maoist’ groups in India have been regularly using booby-trap weapons with telling effect.  Under these circumstances, how has the Army Chief gone on to justify the methods chosen by Israel to use booby-trap weapons? The Army Chief has a lot to explain.

        Adverse Consequences

The concerned global community has suddenly woken up to the ramifications of the misuse of mass-consumed electronic gadgets for terrorist activities. In the opinion of Subimal Bhattacharjee, a defence and cyber security analyst, there are three aspects to this massive impending threat:

“First, the usage of digital technology to levels that force multiple physical attacks and as a combination, lead to concerns over creating a larger havoc. With artificial intelligence becoming a major factor in enhancing kinetic weapons capabilities, the horizon is more complex.

Second, is the use of such techniques a harbinger for more deadly forms of cyber attacks? Can nations be allowed to go to such an extent of causing violence and death using digital techniques?

Third, how will the supply chain ecosystem deal with such attacks? Modern technology supply chains are incredibly complex, with components and software often sourced from multiple countries and suppliers. This complexity creates ample opportunities for malicious actors to introduce compromised hardware or software at various points in the supply chain. These compromises can be extremely difficult to detect and may lie dormant until activated for an attack.”

Until and unless concrete steps are promptly initiated to prevent gross misuse of mass-consumed electronic gadgets for terrorist purposes – especially by States such as Israel – the adverse consequences that the entire human society would be compelled to face would be unimaginable.

N.D.Jayaprakash (jaypdsf@gmail.com) is Joint Secretary, Delhi Science Forum and Member, National Coordinating Committee, Coalition for Nuclear Disarmament & Peace. The views are personal.

First Published on newsclick.in

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A curious video is doing the rounds. Titled “How will India become Lebanon | The game of Demography and population explosion” the ‘talk is by Ananta Sarga productions, anchored by its co-founder Varun Kulkarni, and uploaded on their  Breathing History youtube channel. It begins with a conclusion that “what happened with Lebanon will happen with India” which the anchor only refers to as Bharat, like most Hindutva groups have instructed their followers to do.

“If we dont wake up in time there is nothing stopping Bharat from becoming another Lebanon,” he says, “explaining” how in the 50s the Maronite Chritians were in majority there and that it along with Israel were the only two democracies in the area. He stresses that these were also the only two “non-Muslim countries” of the area adding, “You can reach whatever conclusions you want from that.” He goes on to trace that all “refugees” including Christians and Muslims thronged to Lebanon. There is of course a dramatic sound track backing his claims of how “terrorist organsaitons like PLO” were doing their “politics under a Leftist banner” and projected themselves as “victims”. He further says, “I hope you can see the scary similarity” and goes on to claim “internal population explosion” and “refugees” for the rise in Muslim population. 

He then claims that “India is headed the Lebanon way.” He says that “they let refugees in”, and ‘explains’ in a simple way how ‘this was like a langar’ but changed the demography and “attacks” began. He claims this is happening in India and “Assam population” is an example, and claimed how “eight states in India” now “do not have Hindus as majority.” He says India “has not understood the demography game” and that Indian Hindus are not paying attention to the “cultural existential issues” and are easily diverted. He claims that Bangladesh and Pakistan are supporting the “illegal refugees”. 

The man then concludes his communal monologue by appreciating the Hindutva groups who are “awakening” and saying things like “don’t teach us how to celebrate our festivals”, perhaps hinting at the concerns raised over Diwali related pollution etc. “Watch this video to understand (hopefully, realise) how scary and close India could be to become the next Lebanon. There are other European countries falling for the same too,” he claims in the description, adding an alarmist “Time to WAKE UP and do something about it” call to action.

However, his hate claims, and rumour mongering stands busted as ground realities showcase a completely different story. As detailed by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace website The Lebanese Constitution since 1926 was amended several times – in 1929, 1943, 1947, and 1990. “The most recent 1990 Constitution (found here in English, Arabic, and French) provides for an equal distribution of Christians and Muslims in both the Cabinet and the Parliament.” The Constitution “may be revised upon the request of the president or the parliament. A two-thirds majority of seats is needed to initiate amendment procedures (Articles 76 and 77)” and is also “supplemented by the 2008 Doha Agreement (English text), which ended an eighteen-month political deadlock and eventual violent outbreak between the Western and Saudi-backed majority and its pro-Syrian opposition.”

While historians and legal experts may bust the claims made by propaganda channels such as this which aim at creating a communal narrative, it is a cause of worry that such channels are allowed to air unchecked by Youtube. It is being shared by many groups. Anant Sarga productions is founded by engineers turned ‘fimmakers’ Preetham K Tiwari, and Varun Kulkarni, who anchors the show. Breathing History and Ananta Sarga specialise in a stylised presentation of the Hindutva narratives on many subjects. History, facts and objectivity are the top casualties of such projects.

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Syrian refugees in Haouch El Nabi in the Bekaa valley, Lebanon. Wael Hamzeh/EPA

Despite the current optimism around the potential good these new global compacts on refugees and migrants will have, the current political situation in Lebanon – home to 1.1m Syrian refugees – shows why there is still a long way to go. Infrastructure to accommodate the refugees in host countries such as Lebanon, Turkey and Jordan is still dire and requires emergency funds to ensure basic needs are met.

In Lebanon, Syrian refugees are viewed not only as an economic burden, but a political threat so severe that their presence threatens the country’s delicate power-sharing balance. Even in the aftermath of elections in May 2018 that brought a modicum of political stability in Lebanon – although still no agreement on cabinet positions – Syrian refugees are still scapegoated by Lebanese politicians. Increasingly xenophobic rhetoric has worsened.

Meanwhile, Lebanon has stepped up efforts to return Syrian refugees, committing significant resources to ensure the return of as many people as possible. But this is highly controversial. Many Syrians fear reprisals or arrest by the Assad regime, possible conscription into the army and a basic lack of infrastructure when they arrive.

Even with the prospects of new international agreements on refugees, no discernible positive impact can be expected for Lebanon’s Syrian refugees. Lebanon has not signed the 1951 Refugee Convention, so that it isn’t legally required to protect the estimated 450,000 Palestinian refugees who also live in the country. The convention provides the legal parameters to ensure refugees are given the right to work, education, housing and non-discrimination.
 

Memory of the past

Part of the reason why Lebanon has ignored this international mandate for refugee rights is a reflection of the divided nature of Lebanese politics, which values stability between the Lebanese elite above all else. But the cost of that stability is currently being paid disproportionally by Syrian and Palestinians as they face marginalisation and exclusion.

Since the outbreak of the Syrian war in in 2011, Syrians who sought refuge in Lebanon have faced systemic marginalisation through policies that limited their ability to gain residency and labour rights. For Lebanon’s political elite, the presence of Syrian refugees represents a dangerous reminder of the Palestinian refugees who played an important role in the Lebanese civil war of 1975-1990, and are now commonly, and wrongly, blamed for being one of the causes of the conflict.

Lebanese prime minister-designate Saad Hariri has struggled to form a government. Wael Hamzeh/EPA

Lebanese political power-sharing is based on a prescriptive sectarian parliamentary balance between Christians and Muslims. The focus on a demographic balance between Christians and Muslims within Lebanon’s institutions has a direct influence on political decision making: from ensuring representation in the cabinet to enshrining the rejection of the right for Palestinian refugees to settle in the constitution.

Because of this, the Christian political elite view Syrians and Palestinians not as vulnerable groups in need of basic assistance, but as a potential seismic demographic shift. The common theory explained to me on a recent research trip to Lebanon was that if either group were to be settled in Lebanon permanently, the balance of sects would shift to favour to Sunnis and result in their dominance over the political arena at the expense of Shia and Christians.
 

What’s old is new again

It was clear that for many of the Christian political elite I spoke to, the Syrian refugees were viewed as an existential threat that could undermine the delicate sectarian balance in the country and destroy the power-sharing agreement that guarantees representation for all Lebanese groups.

In the face of all this, Lebanon’s response to the presence of refugees has been uncharacteristically cohesive. It introduced a national strategy in 2014 entitled the “policy on Syrian displacement”, aimed primarily at ensuring that Syrians were limited in their ability to settle permanently in Lebanon.

Now, arguments that have been used to marginalise Palestinians are now repeated in reference to Syrians. In May 2018, former foreign minister Gebran Bassil proposed that Lebanese women would finally be allowed to pass on nationality to their children, unless they were married to a Syrian or Palestinian. Previous arguments on why this right should be denied to Lebanese women were made in reference to children of Palestinians only.

The focus on maintaining sectarian equilibrium will always be an obstacle for international legal instruments designed to give refugees their rights in Lebanon. For the Syrian and Palestinian refugees living in the country, the power-sharing system will continue to entrap them as they face systemic exclusion, with politicians trying to make their living conditions as difficult as possible to ward off potential settlement. If stability in Lebanon continues to be managed by sectarian head counting, any mechanisms to protect refugees will not be implementable and suffering will continue unabated.
 

Drew Mikhael, Research Fellow in the School of History, Anthropology, Philosophy and Politics, Queen’s University Belfast

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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An Israeli soldier walks next to an Iron Dome rocket defense battery near the southern city of Sderot, Israel, in 2015. (AP Photo/Tsafrir Abayov)

Given this new missile interception controversy, it’s worth looking at another ongoing one. Newly-published research investigates the effectiveness of Israel’s Iron Dome rocket interceptor systems.

Iron Dome arrives

Iron Dome began operating in Israel in 2011. The systems achieved international fame during the country’s 2012 and 2014 Gaza Strip conflicts. But they also triggered controversy about their true performance.

Each Iron Dome system includes a radar, computer and several launchers. The radar detects incoming rockets. The computer then estimates the impact points. If any rockets threaten valued targets, the launchers shoot them down.

The systems cost Israel billions to develop, build and reload. The United States contributed $1.3 billion of that, and recently budgeted several hundred millions more.

Five Iron Dome systems served during Israel’s 2012 Operation Pillar of Defense against Gaza. They claimed 421 rocket interceptions. That’s 85 per cent of the rockets they engaged. Observers declared the technology a “game-changer that heralds the end of rockets.”

Nine systems participated in 2014’s Operation Protective Edge. They claimed 735 rocket and mortar shell interceptions. That’s 92 per cent of those engaged.

Skepticism about missile interceptions

However, missile interception is difficult and often doubted, as in the Syrian case. Analysts shot down American claims of intercepting Iraqi missiles during the 1991 Gulf War. Saudi Arabia’s recent interceptions of Houthi missiles are likewise under fire.

For Iron Dome, videos of interception attempts lack enough detail to confirm the rockets’ warheads were destroyed. Critics therefore have questioned Israel’s claims. One U.S. analyst argued the effective interception rate might have been 30 to 40 per cent. Another put it below 10 per cent. An Israeli critic called the system a bluff.

(The technology’s occasional missteps don’t help. In 2016, a system fired at mortar shells falling outside of Israel. Last month, one launched interceptors at machine gun bullets.)

In response, Iron Dome supporters have pointed to declining property damage rates. Israel had no interceptors during the 2006 Second Lebanon War. In that conflict, the country suffered 6.7 property damage insurance claims per rocket. The rate dropped to 2.9 in 2012 and 1.2 in 2014. Supporters argued the steep decrease after Iron Dome’s arrival proved its “ironclad success.”

Average property damage insurance claims per rocket during three Israeli conflicts. Author provided

A closer look

But that comparison overlooks some important details. The first is Operation Cast Lead in 2008-2009. That conflict had just 2.4 damage claims per rocket. With that included, Iron Dome’s 2011 debut coincides with slightly increased damage rates.

Average property damage insurance claims per rocket during four Israeli conflicts. Author provided

The second oversight concerns rocket differences. In 2006, Hezbollah militants in Lebanon fired thousands of Grad artillery rockets at Israel. Several hundred heavier missiles reinforced the barrage.

By contrast, Hamas militants in Gaza mixed Grads with smaller Qassam rockets. The average Gaza rocket warhead consequently was about half the size of those from Lebanon.

Scaling the damage rates relative to warhead weight can adjust for these differences. The damage claims per “standardized” rocket then become 4.4, 3.9, 4.3, and 1.5, respectively. The first three numbers’ closeness suggests Iron Dome had minimal influence in 2012. But the subsequent large drop implies it was very influential in 2014.

Average property damage insurance claims per standardized rocket warhead during four Israeli conflicts. Author provided

Estimating performance

My new research investigates this topic in more detail. It suggests Iron Dome intercepted 59 to 75 per cent of all threatening rockets during Protective Edge four years ago. “Threatening” means the rockets struck populated areas or were intercepted beforehand. The interceptions likely avoided $42 to $86 million in property damage. They also prevented three to six deaths and 120 to 250 injuries.

Those percentages include rockets anywhere in Israel. Therefore, the claim of a 92 per cent interception rate for only the areas defended by Iron Dome seems plausible.

By contrast, the 2012 Pillar of Defense interceptions apparently blocked less than 32 per cent of threatening rockets. They prevented at most two deaths, 110 injuries and US$7 million in damage.

The data also imply the number of rocket hits on populated areas was understated. Conversely, the number of threatening rockets seems overstated. The effective interception rate for Pillar of Defense therefore may have been markedly less than the reported 85 per cent.

Improved but not impenetrable

These results suggest the Iron Dome debate has been too polarized. The system’s initial value may have been largely symbolic. But it later become very influential.

That’s good news for Israel and its American funder. It’s also reassuring for potential Iron Dome buyers facing missile threats in other parts of the world.

Only Azerbaijan has purchased any systems so far. But the U.S. Army may buy some for short-range air defence. (Canada only bought the radar.)

However, the system isn’t “the end of rockets.” Attackers can counter interceptors by firing rockets in large batches. Indeed, Israel’s opponents keep acquiring more rockets. Hamas in strife-filled Gaza reportedly has 10,000. Hezbollah in Lebanon has 120,000. That latter arsenal would severely strain Israeli interceptors during any future “Northern War.”

Similarly, sophisticated attackers use technology to make their missiles hard to intercept. In their Syria strike, America and its allies used difficult-to-detect cruise missiles. Defenders can’t intercept what their radars can’t see.
 

Michael J. Armstrong, Associate professor of operations research, Goodman School of Business, Brock University

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

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Fr Cedric Prakash, a senior human rights activist from Gujarat is now in Beirut, Lebanon, from where he will be contributing a regular column for SabrangIndia

On March 15, 2011 inspired by the Arab Spring unprecedented protests erupted in several parts of Syria, demanding immediate reform after forty years of iron-fisted rule by the family of President Bashar Assad’s family.

 Today, on the eve of the fifth anniversary of the commencement of this civil war Syria lies in ruins. According to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, “this war has left more than 270,000 people dead; of these 80,000 are civilians including 13,500 children.”
Unofficially however, the death toll is far more- with an unknown number killed in detention at the hands of the government, rebels or militants. An estimated one million people have also been wounded; an unbelievable number suffer from trauma and other mental –health illness which any conflict of such an intense nature can generate.

Above all, this civil war has spawned the greatest mass migration after World War II. A United Nations(UN) report in January this year said that out of a pre-conflict population of 23 million, 13.5 million Syrians have been forced out of their homes; and an additional 480,000 are still living under siege. Some 4.7 million Syrians have fled to neighbouring countries of Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan and significant numbers to Egypt, Iraq.

Though the vast majority have remained in the region, hundreds of thousands have tried to make the perilous journey to Europe, not all reach the European shores alive. Most of the refugees and the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) face acute problems- which include, living in abominable conditions in make-shift housing, poverty, lack of employment and very little access to quality healthcare and education. Besides, several local communities show reluctance to easily accept the refugees/IDPs- and impose severe restrictions on their integration

 
So is there anything to “celebrate?” as the fifth anniversary approaches? It’s a question I have been asking several Syrians in Homs and earlier in Damascus. One does not even have to wait for answer- the pain in their eyes, the suffering hewn in their faces, tell it all.

‘Absolutely nothing’, is the common refrain. “No, there is nothing left for us- we are afraid to look into tomorrow;” “All we want is this war to end immediately;” “Syria will never be the same again”. One cannot   help but feel a palpable sense of grief, evident from the testimonies of a people who have lost everything.
 
Homs, for one, divided into several parts – is like a ghost city- bombed, battered and bruised. On May 9 2014, Syrian troops recaptured the Old City from the rebels after a two-year siege- but the consequences for those who remained have been just immense. I spoke to several of the youth here- they desperately yearn for peace; at the same time, they look for any possibility, or chance, to move out of the country – for better prospects, for future of hope, elsewhere.

Trust has been another casualty of this war. No one knows whom to trust and whom not to; there are the big players in opposite camps – supported by the military might of the Super-powers; at the same time many more groups and factions have emerged – each claiming a kind of a “divine right” to exercise their stranglehold on sections of the population.

There are also the extremists (like the ISIS and the Nusra Front- the Syrian affiliate of the Al-Qaeda) who would apparently do anything to ensure that this war continues endlessly. People tend to be cautious, very selective in their use of words. They speak under the veil of anonymity. They fear that they may be misquoted or reported to those who ‘currently’ control their lives.

On February 27, 2016 an unprecedented ‘cessation of hostilities’ came into force. It applied to combat zones between the Russian–backed regime forces and the non-militant rebels. Sadly, this ceasefire did not extend to the more than half of the country’s territory that is controlled by the extremist groups. In several parts of the country one can still hear and even witness heavy bombardment. Naturally, several Syrians are still very skeptical about this truce and continue to despair, “the truce has not changed anything in my life. The war-planes still hover above us”, lamented one of them.

There are several stake–holders in this war. Many of these are powerful and that includes the UN Security Council. What many feel, is that in the ultimate analysis the key players must demonstrate the political will to stop this war.

Fragile though this true currently is, after five years of devastating conflict, this phase has slowly begun to rekindle minimal aspirations. The simple hope that this war and senseless violence that has ripped apart Syrian society, may end. The light at the end of the dark tunnel? The average Syrian is desperate to clutch at any straw having lived through a conflict that has meant death, destruction and displacement.

On March 14, 2016, today, the UN- brokered talks will resume in Geneva.

Will these actually change the ground reality and ensure sustainable peace? Many doubt it; but several others have   expressed support for the recommencement of the negotiations between the warring parties with the demand that, at some crucial point within the negotiating process, the UN mediation team should and must grant space for genuine bipartisan civil society groups to share their vision for a new post-conflict Syria. This has not happened, so far.

Since the very beginning of this conflict, many community-based groups have been engaged in providing humanitarian assistance to people in need across the social, cultural, tribal, sectarian and religious divide; this help was given exclusively on the basis of vulnerability and where the need was greatest. Overtime, these groups have faced difficulties in continuing their mission but others still manage to do so, despite being faced with enormous difficulties and danger. Within such a polarised context, it is essential that members of these groups are given the opportunity to share their views about how to bring back together fractured communities and help prepare them for future cohabitation in the Syria of tomorrow.

Early February 2016, the Donors’ Conference hosted in London under the auspices of the governments of the United Kingdom, Kuwait, Germany and Norway showed some international involvement in sharing of responsibility for Syria’s re-construction and the rehabilitation of Syrian IDPs with host countries Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey.

The unending war has dealt a blow to education for the refugee children. Therefore, the commitment by several countries to ensure that all Syrian refugee children are in regular schools by the end of the school year 2016-2017 is a widely welcomed step. The barriers in ensuring easy access and entry to schools for Syrian refugee children, however remain.

There are several stake–holders in this war. Many of these are powerful and that includes the UN Security Council. What many feel, is that in the ultimate analysis the key players must demonstrate the political will to stop this war. Until that time, millions of Syrians — today the ‘nowhere’ people of the world– will continue to despair and flee as fast as possible from a daily nightmare that there life has become.

The fifth anniversary yes – but there is nothing to celebrate; only painfully memories of five bloody years which have wrought untold misery on a sizeable section of the world’s population.

(The writer is a human rights activist. He is currently based in Beirut, Lebanon as the Advocacy and Communications Officer of the Jesuit Refugee Service(JRS) in the Middle East and North Africa Region)

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Fr Cedric Prakash, a senior human rights activist from Gujarat is now in Beirut, Lebanon, from where he will be contributing a regular column for SabrangIndia

Tasnim is just about seven years old. It’s been a year now that her parents Zemzoun and Mohammed fled with their five children (Tasnim, Ghofran, Rawan, Razan and Khaled) from war –ravaged Syria to the safer and more secure environment of neighbouring Lebanon. Tasnim does not remember very much about the day they had to leave the comfort of their small home just outside Damascus; ‘it was very painful and difficult’ she says and then just tunes off clearly trying to forget the way her family had to come away from the place they once called ‘home’ .
 
The   reality of Tasnim –is easily the story of two million Syrian refugee children who today live in neighbouring countries. The Syrian conflict will soon enter its sixth year. In 2015, the number of refugees fleeing Syria surpassed 4 million and Lebanon became the country with the highest per capita concentration of refugees in the world.
 
At the end of November 2015, the number of UNHCR registered Syrian refugees in Lebanon was 1,070,189 while the exact number remains unknown: the reported number strictly reflects those registered with UNHCR. Lebanese authorities estimate the number of unregistered Syrian refugees to be as high as 500,000[1].
 
Children and youth figure prominently in the flow of Syrian refugees. Based on recently published figures by UNHCR on Lebanon, half of the total number is children below the age of eighteen; of these, there are more than 477,000 Syrian children who are school-aged ^[2]. As of October 2015, more than 70% of them were out of school.
 
The Government of Lebanon launched a strategy in 2014 for educating refugee children in the country: Reaching All Children with Education (RACE), which aligns the country’s refugee response with the Lebanese Government’s Education Sector Development Plan. RACE promises to provide access to formal education to a great number of Syrian refugee students. This program, even if implemented perfectly to plan, will reach less than half of the school-age Syrian children in Lebanon.
 
Another essential problem that RACE does not promise to solve is aligning Syrian refugee students’ educational capacities with the requirements of the Lebanese curriculum. Syrian children face significant language barriers in adapting to the Lebanese curriculum, which provides certain subjects in English and French. These obstacles, in addition to the lack of available spaces, transportation costs, discrimination and bullying, social and economic issues, as well as unpredictable enrolment regulations^[3], are the entrenched barriers to Syrian children’s successful enrolment and attendance in both formal and non-formal education provided through public schools.
 
According to UNHCR, more than 67 percent of the Syrian refugees in Lebanon are living in the North and Bekaa regions due to their proximity to Syria. The ratio of Syrian refugees to Lebanese citizens in the Bekaa is now as high as 1:2. Unlike refugees living in the Beirut and Mount Lebanon governorates, a large proportion of refugee families in the Bekaa region are staying in makeshift camps, leaving them vulnerable to poor weather, hygiene and protection concerns.
 
Security incidents are more frequent in the region due to the proximity to the Syrian border, which presents additional challenges for humanitarian access and delivery of assistance to refugees living in the Bekaa.
 
Children are often forced to start working in order to help provide for their families, and usually take jobs or work daily/seasonally in the agricultural sector. Many of the children are exposed to pesticides, toxic chemicals, heavy loads and exhausting hours.[4]
 
According to a study conducted in 2014, over half of the Syrian children living in the Bekaa had only attained basic reading and writing skills or elementary education before starting work.[5] The Bekaa region has the highest number of out of school children (85%) in the country, largely due to the lack of proximity to schools.[6]
 

But Tasnim is one of the more fortunate refugee children of the Bekaa region as she studies today in the Al-Andalus school which is administered by the Jesuit Refugee Service (JRS) since October 2015. She is delighted about this. She enjoys learning and playing in school. She looks forward to the daily snacks and the other facilities given to her in school. She revels in the warmth, affection and acceptance lavished upon her by her teachers.
 
 Tasnim sits on the front bench of her class. Some visitors come in. They ask those ‘normal’ questions which a little child is subjected to: “When you grow up, what would you like to become?” Answers are the usual ones which a child would give perhaps anywhere in the world:” policeman’, ‘teacher’, ‘cook’ etc.
 
The question is directed to Tasnim, in an answer which belies her seven years and surprises everyone she looks at the visitor, with her arms folded she coyly says “Doctor!”. Later on, she is asked the ‘why’ of her desire. She does not hesitate in saying ‘I want to heal others; I don’t like seeing people dying, killing one another.
 
She also shares her longing to go back home to Damascus. She remembers her grandfather with a glisten in her innocent eyes. She loves him very much and she enjoyed playing in his house; besides, she says her grandfather used to play with her too. Then one day he became very sad, she says, because his son (her Uncle) was killed. She began feeling very sad too because he was sad. She misses her grandfather very much and wishes that he would come and live with them in Lebanon.
 
In the Bekaa valley there are thousands of refugee children who have to labour in muddy fields picking up fruits or vegetables or just doing almost anything to eke out an existence. A few months ago the New York Times (November 5, 2015) carried an insightful story entitled ‘The Displaced: Hana’.
 
This is the story of Hana Abdullah, another Syrian refugee child in the Bekaa valley a little older than Tasnim. But Hana is not as fortunate as Tasnim –as she slogs for long hours to help her family survive.
 
Though Tasnim is in school and is cared for, her father Mohammed finds it really difficult to make both ends meet. By profession he is a carpenter; back home in Syria he earned a decent wage and was able to provide his family with a comfortable life. The past five years have meant a dramatic change in his fortunes. He had no alternative but to flee with his family to Lebanon. He desperately tries to make both ends meet by doing odd jobs- that does not happen daily. No one speaks about a ‘just wage’ for a refugee. His wife Zemzoum looks after the children and the handles other household chores
 

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