With the growing anticipation surrounding the census, India is also bracing for another game-changer ‘delimitation’. Delimitation is expected to serve the purpose of ‘One Person, One Vote, One Value’ but usually gets reduced to active politics or arbitrary demarcation. Issues like the North-South divide and the challenge of accommodating women’s reservation alongside existing SC-ST quotas are already sparking heated debates across the country. But there is something that remains absent from the present debates in the Indian media, and that is ‘gerrymandering’. The term is of American origin and is used to describe the deliberate drawing of boundaries to favour a particular political party and ultimately influencing election outcomes. The strategy is used in two ways; either to concentrate or diffuse the loyal voters. Expanding the constituency boundary and concentrating the ‘loyal votes dedicated to a particular party’, so the favoured candidate wins in one constituency only instead of influencing results of multiple constituencies is called ‘packing’. Another way is to distribute the ‘loyal voters’ –of the political opposition –into different constituencies, so they get reduced to minor vote constituents only, in all of them and therefore, after this exercise of diffusion, fail to crack first-past-the-post system. This pre-delimitation anticipation has become easier with the usage of the Electronic Voting System (EVS) and past voting data available on ECI website, which then used to analyse people’s voting pattern.

This can be illustrated with the recent delimitation of Jammu & Kashmir^[2]. Initially, Jammu was allocated 37 seats and Kashmir 46. After the recent delimitation, Jammu’s seats increased to 43, while Kashmir’s rose only slightly to 47. As a result, Jammu, with 44% of the population, now holds 48% of the seats, while Kashmir, with 56% of the population, holds only 52%. Previously, the distribution was more proportional—Kashmir had 55.4% of seats and Jammu 44.5%, matching their respective population shares. The addition of six new constituencies in the Hindu-majority areas of Jammu, likely to vote in a particular direction, has raised concerns of political bias—intentional or otherwise. In Padder, Muslim votes were scattered, leading to a weaker impact. Similarly, the reservation of seats for Kashmiri Pandits furthered suspicions of partisanship.

Although the BJP won roughly the same proportion of seats in the Jammu region in both 2014 and 2024—67.6% and 67.4% respectively—it failed to win any seats in the Kashmir region in either election. However, due to the addition of six new seats exclusively in the Jammu region, the region’s share in the total assembly rose from 44.6% in 2014 to 47.8% in 2024. This meant that even without expanding its voter base or increasing its performance, the BJP’s overall seat share in the Jammu & Kashmir Assembly rose from 30.1% to 32.2%.

This shift was not due to an electoral swing but a structural advantage created by the new delimitation—where additional seats in Jammu amplified its political weight. It raises serious concerns that the rebalancing of seats disproportionately boosted Jammu’s representation and, consequently, the electoral advantage of the BJP—whether intentionally or as an unintended consequence of the process^[3].

But delimitation dynamics extend beyond intra-state constituencies. By 2001, states like Tamil Nadu had five more seats than proportionate to their population, while Uttar Pradesh had eight fewer than its due share. Similarly, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Bihar witnessed significant population growth, yet their seat allocations remained unchanged. In contrast, states like Kerala and Andhra Pradesh gained additional seats. While there’s no definitive evidence linking these patterns directly to political motives, observers have pointed to the potential influence of coalition politics. The postponement of delimitation to 2026 under the Vajpayee-led NDA (National Democratic Alliance) government is often viewed in this light. At the time, the coalition’s fragility—especially after the AIADMK (All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) exited the coalition within 18 months—likely made delimitation a politically sensitive move. Had southern states lost parliamentary representation due to population-based seat restructuring, it may have further strained ties with key regional allies. This led to the passage of the 84th Constitutional Amendment, extending the freeze on seat allocation based on the 1971 census until after 2026.

The growing North-South divide is increasingly shifting the political balance in favour of North India, often at the expense of the South. Makrand Paranjape, political commentator says “South is subsidising the North, bearing the burden of the latter’s population growth, unemployment, poverty, poor infrastructure, and social backwardness” ^[4] In fact, southern states are wealthier and contribute significantly to the central revenue pool but the union government has to distribute on population and need-basis. These states, which effectively carried out population control measures and have low fertility rate are already feeling penalised because of fiscal distribution by the union and can get punished again politically in a parliamentary way.

Theoretically, southern states are over-represented as of now. The wide vote-value disparity can be seen by the fact that in Uttar Pradesh, a single MP represents around three million of the population whereas, in Tamil Nadu, he/she represents around 1.8 million people^[5]. Assuming the total number of seats at 543, only 22 major states have retained the share of 524 seats. By 2026, Uttar Pradesh alone is set to hold 91 seats out of the 524 constituencies, marking a rise of 11 seats from its current 80-seat allocation. In contrast, Tamil Nadu will see its representation shrink by 10 seats from the existing 39. Additionally, the five southern states, namely Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu, are projected to lose a combined 26 seats, while four northern states, including Rajasthan, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh, are expected to gain a total of 31 seats^[6]. This may represent the states proportionally but the fear of loss of regional political parties from parliament is concerning. It can significantly benefit political parties which perform well in northern states in terms of number of MPs.

One key reason behind the freeze on Lok Sabha and State Assembly seats was to maintain balance in presidential elections. Under Articles 54 and 55 of the Constitution, the President is elected by an electoral college comprising all MPs and MLAs, with the value of an MLA’s vote based on the population of their state. A major concern was that states with lower population growth—mainly in the South—would lose influence in both Parliament and presidential elections if seat allocation followed a conventional population-based formula. The rationale behind the freeze was to allow time for population control measures to reduce the demographic gap between the North and South. However, this objective has clearly not been achieved. Instead of narrowing, the gap has only widened over time—now raising even more serious questions about representation and fairness in the upcoming delimitation exercise. If the proposed delimitation takes place in the conventional way—allocating seats solely based on population—it could severely diminish the political voice of these states in national decision-making. In the long run, such an imbalance could lead to alienation and a sense of democratic unfairness.^[7]

There are several proposal for solutions. For instance, freezing inter-state seats once again can prevent the unintended under-representation of the south but freezing seats can’t change the parenting pattern of the states. Thus, this may not be a sustainable solution. One solution is increasing the number of parliamentary seats. Based on the 2011 Census data, calculations estimate 718 seats in the Lok Sabha and 848 representatives in parliament when projected for 2026^[8]. The new created seats will be distributed on the basis of population, without any state losing any previous seat. This increase is crucial to consider, as the principle of having one representative per 750,000 people in the Lok Sabha and one per 75,000 in the Legislative Assembly has been vastly exceeded, reaching millions in some areas unevenly across the country. Creating new constituencies can enhance the accessibility of MPs to the public, leading to better representation and governance.

Apart from suggestions made, the composition of the Delimitation Commission^[9] determines the quality and impartiality of the demarcation. The Delimitation Commission comprises of judges of Supreme Court and High Court, Chief Election Commission and politicians from different parties in each state. The relevance of politicians has continuously been questioned as ‘political interference’ or ‘explicit gerrymandering’ but the defence states the need for regional knowledge of the needs and culture of the people, which sometimes allow bureaucrats also to give their opinions. But even if gerrymandering takes place in the name of factors such as geography, communication and public convenience, no reports can be published due to constitutional safeguards. In the case of delimitation, the Commission’s verdict is final and beyond judicial review, meaning it cannot be challenged in the Supreme Court.

This makes the role of delimitation—and the neutrality of the Delimitation Commission—all the more crucial in ensuring that every Indian’s voice is truly heard, from every street to the highest corridors of power. While the existing framework already raises concerns about SC-ST and women’s reservations due to the unpredictable rotation pattern, India urgently needs an innovative and inclusive approach to reform. Without it, the growing political tension may soon become a storm brewing in plain sight. 

(The author is an independent journalist covering polity, governance, and social issues)

^[1] Verma, A. K. (2006). Delimitation in India: Methodological Issues. Economic and Political Weekly, 794-799.

^[2] Kumar, A., & Srivastava, K. Boundary Lines and Ballots: Exploring Delimitation, Electoral Dynamics, and Reservation in India

^[3] Jha, Abhishek (2024, October 9) ‘Did delimitation change the electoral game in Jammu and Kashmir?’ Hindustan Times https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/jammu-and-kashmir-results-did-delimitation-change-the-electoral-game-in-jk-101728411603455.html

^[4] Kumar, A., & Srivastava, K. Boundary Lines and Ballots: Exploring Delimitation, Electoral Dynamics, and Reservation in India

^[5] Kumar, A., & Srivastava, K. Boundary Lines and Ballots: Exploring Delimitation, Electoral Dynamics, and Reservation in India

^[6] Patel, P. K., & Sekher, T. V. (2024). Parliamentary Delimitation: A Study on India’s Demographic Struggle for Political Representation. Journal of Asian and African Studies, 00219096241295634.

^[7] Sivaramakrishnan, K. C. (2001). Constituencies Delimitation: Deep Freeze Again?. Economic and Political Weekly, 4694-4696.

^[8] Patel, P. K., & Sekher, T. V. (2024). Parliamentary Delimitation: A Study on India’s Demographic Struggle for Political Representation. Journal of Asian and African Studies, 00219096241295634.

^[9] Singh, C. P. (2000). A century of constituency delimitation in India. Political Geography, 19(4), 517-532.

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Election Commission of India receives 467 suggestions and objections over the proposed delimitation exercise in Assam

The post Delimitation: Strengthening democracy or rigging the game? appeared first on SabrangIndia.

In a move that has sparked outrage among residents of Assam’s Barak Valley, a week ago, on June 20, 2023 the Election Commission of India (ECI) unveiled a draft of the proposed delimitation for the region’s 126 assembly seats and 14 Lok Sabha seats. The move has been vociferously condemned as communal by renowned academics.

The draft has also been criticised by the Congress as being a pro-BJP move by the statutory ECI. The Barak Democratic Front (BDF) even called a bandh against it in the three districts of Barak Valley namely Cachar, Karimganj and Hailakandi on today, June 27, 2023. BDF Chief, Pradeep Dutta stated that they had decided to call for the bandh  in the ‘larger interest of people’. The Congress Party too had called for a bandh, arguing that this move is a ‘conspiracy’ against the people of Barak Valley. The population of the Barak Valley that stood at 20 lakh, the last time that delimitation took place, it is today at 45 lakhs.

What has the draft proposed? 

Delimitation is an exercise carried out by the ECI after a census. The next delimitation exercise for all over India will be carried out in 2026. The last all round Delimitation was conducted in 2008, however for Assam it had been deferred for later.

Writ petitions filed in the Supreme Court of India, one by Rajya Sabha member, Ajit Kumar Bhuyan and Dr Hiren Gohain and another by opposition party, AIUDF have stated that the reason for the earlier deferral of the delimitation exercise was its reliance on 2001 Census data which is outdated. India has not had a Census since 2011, which in any case would contain later, more updated data than that which is contained in 2001.

This legal challenge to the manner in which the ECI has conducted the delimitation exercise is pending with the next date on July 25, 2023 begging the question as to the legal basis and propriety of the ECI’s publishing the draft when the exercise is under challenge.

The current delimitation draft is based on 2001 census data. The petitions are scheduled to come up for hearing before the Chief Justice of India (CJI)’s bench on July 25,2023 and hence the undue haste in declaring the draft delimitation by the ECI is raising eyebrows.

The last delimitation took place in Assam in 1976. Since then, this is the first time the delimitation exercise has been attempted to be carried out in 2023. Three years from now, in 2026, a new round of delimitation will take place across India, with Lok Sabha seats increasing all over India. With the present new draft for Assam, the number of seats remains the same, which is 14 in Lok Sabha and 126 in the Vidhan Sabha. It is also possible that if this goes through, a fresh process of delimitation may not again take place in Assam in 2026.

The root of the controversy

The draft proposal has come under heavy criticism due to the (deliberate) elimination of certain assembly seats with Muslim-majority populations. These constituencies are currently represented by opposition party legislators from the Bengali-origin Muslim community, who are often stigmatised as “illegal” migrants.

According to the draft, these seats will either be merged or incorporated into newly-created constituencies, many of which have significant Hindu populations.

Previously, the Barak Valley, comprising the districts of Cachar, Karimganj, and Hailakandi, was allocated 15 assembly constituencies in the 2021 elections. However, the new draft seeks to reduce this number to 13, citing demographic changes as one of the reasons. Additionally, several constituency names are set to be modified under the proposed plan.

Furthermore, the draft reserves three assembly constituencies, where Muslims are in a considerable number, for candidates belonging to Scheduled Castes and Tribes. This effectively prevents minority leaders from participating in the elections for those seats where SC status is not accorded to minority religious populations like Muslims and Christians. Assam’s Muslim population is recorded as 34 percent in the last Census of India from 2011. About 3/4th of the Muslims in Assam are Bengali Muslims, who are frequently derided and persecuted on accusations of being ‘Bangladeshi immigrants.’ Thereby, such a procedure is not based on demographics but clearly, bias.

Several seats, including the current Chief Minister Himanta Biswa’s, will cease to exist according to a report by The Wire, if the draft is approved. Such  leaders will require new constituencies for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls and 2026 assembly elections. Sarma’s current Jalukbari constituency will be divided into three parts, and Assam assembly Speaker Biswajit Daimary’s Panery constituency will no longer exist. Additionally, Forest Minister Chandra Mohan’s Patowary seat in Dharampur will cease to exist. Other seats that will be excluded include Transport Minister Parimal Suklabaidya’s Dholai constituency, as well as many seats held by MLAs.

Critics argue that this move is a brazen move by the ECI to favour the BJP. While it is no secret that the recently unveiled draft proposal by the Election Commission reflects the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) long-standing political stance favouring a delimitation exercise that would enhance the electoral prospects of Assam’s “indigenous” communities.

The BJP, in its 2021 election manifesto, had pledged to initiate a delimitation process to safeguard the political rights of the population. Assam’s Chief Minister, Himanta Biswa Sarma, specifically stated that a minimum of 110 seats should be reserved for the state’s “indigenous” people.

আমাৰ লক্ষ্য – জাতি, মাটি আৰু ভেটিৰ সুৰক্ষা

We are committed to protect the interests of our indigenous communities.

If the EC’s draft on delimitation is approved, people of Assam will have a greater say in their constituencies.

Lakhimpur#MahaJansamparkAbhiyan pic.twitter.com/sQ6ZWatM2L

— Himanta Biswa Sarma (@himantabiswa) June 23, 2023

 What would this bill, if passed, mean for the people of Assam? 

The proposed changes have sparked widespread concerns and have been met with criticism for potentially marginalising Muslim communities and limiting their political representation.

The draft proposal for constituency delimitation in Assam has raised concerns about the lack of consideration for population patterns. Despite Barak Valley having a higher population than the Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR), the number of constituencies in Barak Valley has decreased from 15 to 13, while in BTR, it has increased from 11 to 15. This decision seems to ignore the fact that Barak Valley has historically been home to Bengali-speaking people from both Hindu and Muslim communities, whereas BTR is predominantly inhabited by Bodo tribes.

The motive behind this appears to be a political strategy by Himanta Biswa Sarma and the BJP. In the last election, the BJP, along with its ally UPPL, performed exceptionally well in BTR, while Barak Valley predominantly elected either the Indian National Congress (INC) or the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF). By increasing the number of seats in the BTR region, the draft aims to secure a favourable outcome for the BJP in the 2026 elections, while maintaining their hold on existing seats.

Many politically aware individuals in Assam perceive the draft proposal as a well-planned move by the BJP and Himanta. Although the responsibility of delimitation lies with the Election Commission of India (ECI), this belief is widespread. The draft also includes changes specific to certain districts. For example, Karimganj District, which has a Muslim-majority population, has seen the elimination of one seat. Similarly, Barpeta District, another Muslim-dominated area, has also lost one seat.

In Goalpara district, a seat with a Muslim majority has been reserved for the Scheduled Tribe (ST) community. Likewise, Barpeta LAC in Barpeta District, which is both Muslim-dominated and reserved for the Scheduled Caste (SC) community, has undergone changes.

The recent draft thus does not at all reflect grassroot geographical realities, an aspect that should be of utmost importance. For example, in faraway Dhubri district –set at a 250 kilometres distance from Barpeta–  two LAC constituencies, Mandia and Chenga have been included in Dhubri HPC,  simply seems to be aimed to bifurcate alleged of consolidated Muslims vote. Such irrational considerations by the ECI bode ill for both the representation and development of those regions.

Overall, the draft proposal raises concerns about the perceived lack of consideration for population patterns and the potential political motivations behind the changes.

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What does the government say? 

The ruling party, BJP,  claims that the domination was done keeping focus on “Khilonjiya” (Indigenous people) people of Assam.

However, questions arise, who will be certified as Indigenous? Goriya, Moriya, Jolha, Deshi, Soyed were only certified as Indigenous according to the data of Assam assembly. But will the draft make grant reservations or special status for these indigenous communities?

Hajo LAC is Goriya (indigenous)  community  dominated and East Bilasipara LAC is Deshi (indigenous) community dominated but in the proposed draft Hajo LAC has been reserved for ST and East Bilasipara divided with other LAC. This would mean that in a Goriya concentrated district, the group would never have the opportunity to stand for election or see a representative from their community. This also goes against the principle with which certain constituencies were granted reserved or unreserved status.

Who in Assam are the indigenous people? 

If Bengali speaking Muslims and Hindus are to be continued to be excluded from democratic rights and processes, this can hardly bode well for democracy in Assam. Let us have a look at what differing voices in Assam are saying:

The BJP’s ally partner AGP (Asom Gana Parishad), had made a special comment for Bongaigaon district that they are happy with the delimitation draft because it emphasises the importance of Indigenous people. According to them, in the assembly constituency of Bongaigaon district, one seat will be held  by Koch Rajbongshi (indigenous) community.

But for a long period of time two constituencies of the Bongaigaon district had a concentration of Muslim and Bengali Hindu Scheduled Caste community, one 34 North Abhayapuri and 35 South Abhayapuri respectively. Now the new delimitation drafts by the ECI have made a division with other bordering constituencies and created two new constituencies named Manikpur and Abhayapuri constituency.

Not only in Lok Sabha or Vidhan Sabha, the religious population pattern has also been kept in mind at the panchayat level in this latest move by the ECI.  Hence, if the draft is finally approved , future politics of Assam could well move towards a more polarising phase. There is a potentiality of the electoral discourse getting communalised, in some constituencies by Hindu communalism and in others by Muslim communalism.

Finally, as mentioned above, the population pattern according to recent numbers is much higher than what the current draft is based on for there were demographic changes after 2001 that reflected in the census of 2011. Thus if allowed unchallenged, Assam may data and analysis and policies in Assam will be impacted because the population pattern is not reflected in seats, that is electoral representation. If unchanged in 2026 too when the countrywide delimitation is scheduled to take place, Assam would be negatively impacted because the population pattern didn’t increase with the seat pattern.

Keeping all these factors in mind, it is clear that this ill-conceived exercise will not only be the loss of two communities or religion(s) but it bodes a loss for Assam.

An extreme majoritarian plank of politics has, in the past decades, used the plank of “implementation of the NRC (National Register of Citizens) to specifically target the already marginalised  Bengali Muslim and Bengali Hindu population,  The NRC’s finally released draft final list on August 31, 2019,  revealed that there were next to no illegal foreigners in Assam, debunking the notion that a specific religious and linguistic community carried the burden of being “illegal outsiders”.  Of the 29 people who have died in the state’s infamous detention camps, the bodily remains were sent to their homes in Assam instead of their supposed foreign countries.

CJP has closely witnessed firsthand how ordinary people were unfairly targeted and summoned to the Foreigners Tribunal. The repercussions of the Assam movement and NRC go beyond that, with a significant number of Foreigners Tribunal notices, 19 lakh exclusions from the NRC, 27 lakh exclusions from Aadhaar, and additional discriminations and structural violence against flood-affected farmers and daily labourers, which is often just based on their surnames. The Passport Act and Delimitation Draft serve as the latest iterations of these discriminatory practices by the state.

It is to be seen now, how, when the petition filed by Dr Hiren Gohain and Rajya Sabha member, Ajit Kumar Bhuyan comes up on July 25, and where the proceedings will go. The writ petitions in the Supreme Court challenge the Delimitation Draft proposed by the ECI.

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