Raman Singh held the Chief Minister post of Chhattisgarh for three straight terms of fifteen years and Shivraj Singh Chouhan held Chief minister post in Madhya Pradesh from 2005 until 2018. The factor about Rajasthan which has been cited most is that the state has a tradition of giving power to BJP and Congress alternatively in assembly elections and that the win of Congress is the result of the same tradition.

However, these are not the regions where BJP was anticipated to fail. Reasons have been given from anti-incumbency to the tradition-following-voter to rule out the actual causes behind the BJPs huge loss in these elections, and believe me, the cited ones come last. And here’s why.

Hindutva agenda is not always plain sailing
If assessed correctly, the politics and rhetoric of Hindutva were continuously prevailing in the campaign structure of BJP. Introducing Yogi Adityanath—whose image has never been of a politician but a campaigner of Hindutva repute—to campaign for BJP is part of the same agenda. Just a few days before the polls, BJP’s sister organisations started lobbying in Ayodhya on November 25 actually trying to “protest” for the creation of Ram Temple. The chief organizers of the event were Vishwa Hindu Parishad and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. When the question was put before the organisers that against whom they were protesting, there were no answers.

The same is with the case with the politics of Hindutva. This has been the largest outcry in the election agenda of BJP, but the enemy to the Hindutva has always been imaginary. The Hindutva policies do not have the exact idea over to stand against whom, when and why? The pre-poll act in Ayodhya and the fiasco to erect Rama’s statue along Saryu river had a clear goal: to polarise the voters in favour of BJP. But the party failed to acknowledge that not only Rajasthan and MP did not care much about this campaign, even UP did not take much interest in this issue.
Moreover, the political idea of Hindutva works mostly in the minds of youth. The youngsters between 21 to 35 years have been the target of BJP, as it conducted several campaigns and rallies in these states with the help of its students’ organisation, the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP) to create a young cadre. But the party surely failed to acknowledge that the idea of Hindutva would only work well if the youths get job opportunities. The unemployment rates have been highest in the recent past, and as one RSS Pracharak from Rajasthan told me, “We could not console a disappointed vote by giving it something it does not need at all.”

Hindutva’s tone could have worked well for the majority of votes if the youth was not disappointed with the basic problems and demands it has been raising.

Why we must pay more attention to the agrarian crisis
During the 2017 assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, when everyone was talking about possible alliances, social equations, and caste politics in the state, one more agenda was one the table of the BJP: farm loan waivers.

The BJP firmly promised to waive farm loans and the result of such a promise also reflected in the election results. But coming to 2018 assembly elections in MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, BJP passed the agrarian baton to the Congress where it took the lead and promised to waive farm loans within a week of coming into the power.

This tactic—which was earlier exercised and excelled by BJP—was played well by Congress especially in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the states which have been hit the worst with the farmers’ issues.

Madhya Pradesh has been facing farmers’ protests—the major violent role in which was played by RSS-backed farmers groups—and Shivraj Singh Chouhan played out a high voltage drama of protesting against the protest last year, giving out idea to the rural population that he has been incompetent in dealing with farmers’ issues of the state. RSS backed organisations tried to destabilise Chouhan’s government with the help of Kailash Vijayvargiya, a veteran BJP leader who has waiting long to sit on CM’s chair in MP, but RSS could not make inroads for Kailash or any other BJP leader, leaving out the turf open for Congress to address farmers’ issues.

The situation with the Raman Singh government in Chhattisgarh was similar. He reportedly did a fair job in implementing central government schemes on the ground level but failed to address issues of farmers during his tenure. Farmers picked up the tone of Congress that it would waive off loans in ten days and went against the incumbent Raman Singh.

Moreover, the rural votes in these three states were chiefly affected by the Kisaan Long March which happened earlier this year under the umbrella of several socialist and left-leaning farmers organisations of the country. Combining the peaceful long marches, and the violent protests that happened in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat, Congress tried to cash the anti-BJP mood, which has been told just a matter of anti-incumbency.

Nehru-Gandhi-70 years and negative publicity
Narendra Modi and star campaigners in BJP have been projecting one image of a country that during its 70 years of rule, Congress did not give anything to this country. The dynasty politics of Nehru and Gandhi has also been one of the major focal points for the Narendra Modi.

But Modi failed to notice that he was giving out a golden opportunity of Congress exploiting this negative publicity by him. Every time Modi used his tone to scold Congress, Congress was also in the news and social media along Modi. Moreover, the public in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, which was already trying to get rid of incumbent government and Raje’s stubbornness, soon realised that even Modi did not have something concrete to deliver. He promised a few things from his rallies, but his tone used to return to Gandhi-Nehru bashing all the time, giving out the idea that it was tough for him to stand by the public side.

Pic from twitter

BJP’s failure to manage upper castes’ anger
On August 28, a day-long meeting including BJP’s chief ministers and deputy chief ministers was called in New Delhi. The meeting was being chaired by Narendra Modi and BJP’s own ‘Chanakya’, Amit Shah. While many issues were discussed in this meeting, the pressure was given on the Upper caste anger in many of the states. The anger was the result of the SC/ST Act, which parliament brought to restore the original bill.

Many of the Savarna pages on social media were urging upper caste voters to press NOTA in upcoming elections. The meeting on August 28 was essentially called to address this upper-caste anger. Instructions were given to CMs to reach out to upper-caste groups in their states and to make them aware of government’s welfare schemes which are equally beneficial for them. Meanwhile, strategists inside the party would work on the way to bring back its core trust base back to the party. This way, BJP thought, it could resolve the anger.

According to the party’s sources, the party could chart out a clear strategy to reach out upper castes and to make them believe that BJP is their party, as it has always been. But as a result, the BJP could not lose the tag of “upper caste party”—same as that of Congress—even after several attempts. Not that many Savarna people pressed NOTA, but they went on to press the Congress button on EVMs knowing that the latter has also the same repute between the upper caste voters of India.

Anti-incumbency, boredom and loss of Modi wave
One Twitter handle named @zoo_bear has tweeted a series of tweets after the results of the election came out on Wednesday. The series of tweets compare Modi’s rallies in certain constituencies of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, and the performance of the BJP candidates in those constituencies. In a majority of these place, the BJP candidates lost the election to Congress by huge margins and the others, the BJP won by small margins.

On the television panels, BJP leaders and spokespersons have been claiming that there is no loss of Modi wave and state election reflecting the nation’s mood is not a wise way to think. But, seeing the actual performance of BJP candidates in those areas tells a completely different story.
On the day of the elections results, Indian Express published a report telling if the mood of the nation goes like this, BJP can lose as much as 30 Loksabha seats from Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan. BJP has also sensed it quickly, that is why it has sent an emergency note Intelligence Bureau (IB) asking it to assess the mood of the nation and submit a detailed report in the following weeks.

In the past as well, IB submitted reports to Modi-Shah predicting the mood of the voters before election results in these five states. Moreover, the IB reports are said to have taken as case studies to predict the election results and make strategies further.

Another important factor has been the negligence of Schedule Tribes and Schedule Castes in these three states, especially Chhattisgarh. The continuous anti-reservation gimmicks played out by BJP in Telangana and Madhya Pradesh to attract Savarna votes in its favours turned badly against itself in Chhattisgarh, where the rural farming population is mostly tribe.

As a political party, BJP must be mulling for future strategies. If sources are to be believed, it will also intensify the Ram Temple movement (with unstable and foggy agenda) to polarise voters in Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar and Uttarakhand to regain its hold on Hindu votes. The sign is clear that BJP is facing a tough road ahead, but one can only wait to see if the new and aggressive campaign strategies will work or not.

Courtesy: Two Circles

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Zahida Khan, Congress MLA from Kaman

Given the popularity that Zahida enjoys in the area, it was but obvious that she would be winning with a huge margin. And she did, defeat her BJP opponent by a huge margin of 39621 votes. Interestingly, Zahida, popularly dubbed as the daughter of Mewat, has secured the maximum number of votes – 110789, which way higher than the total votes that what seasoned politicians like Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot have got.

On being asked about this feat, she laughed and said, “Yes, so do I hear that I have managed to get the highest number of votes in the entire Rajasthan.”

A law graduate from Delhi University believes that education is the key for the progress of women from her community. Meo-Muslim is considered to be one of the most backward communities.

Speaking to eNewsroom, she said, “We have always believed that education can bring about a big change in the community. Hence, my focus, like my earlier stint will be on the promotion of women education.” On being asked about what kind of work she and her daughter, Shahnaz Khan, who is also the sarpanch of their village do for the welfare of women, she reiterated, “We have always maintained that educating women is the only way to empower them. Through education only, they will be able to exercise their right. Hence, we will be focusing on education of the girl child.”

She then added, “Water remains to be a major issue in this part of the state. We still don’t have access to soft water. Around 200 villages in this area still have to survive on hard water. Given our proximity to river Chambal, I will we focusing on the renewal of the Chambal Pariyojna or the Chambal Project, so that the water of the river reaches to the villages.”

Zahida, maintained that despite the fact that she is no newcomer to politics, she has had to work hard to register this huge a win. “We have had to work a lot at the ground level, to make an impact in the minds of the voters. Anti-incumbency wave was there, but we had to work a lot to register this huge a win. Needless to say, we got a lot of support from the common man.”

On being asked, what she would be doing for the Meo community, which has been specially targeted by the cow vigilantes in the past five years, she said, “To be honest, we were never this polarized as society, as we have been in the past few years. And that primarily was the way that the BJP government perhaps wanted it to be. People have voted against the politics of hate, you can see the performance of BJP leaders in the Mewat region.”

First published on https://enewsroom.in/
 

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The results are out. The people have rejected the loudmouths who want India to be a permanent conflict zone. I have said many times that our political parties have not been able to tap the wider dissatisfaction on the ground.
 
The Congress has performed well but more than that, it is the people who gave a kick to those who dominantly want to thrust a Ram Temple agenda, gaumutra on the people when they were demanding jobs, education and land reforms.
 
People got bored with the sluggishness of the results but that is the trend. I can bet it is going to happen in the Lok Sabha polls too and we will now have the results out in two days as used to happen during the physical voting process when EVMs were not there. The reason is clear that those who have enjoyed power, would not like to leave it that easily and hence they make every effort to pressurise the officials. Madhya Pradesh has been a case where these laws were violated.
 
The victory for Congress is huge and the credit must go to #RahulGandhi, the Congress President, who along with his mother were mocked, humiliated and insulted by the absolutely communalised, Brahmanised and corrupted media. The anchors let the saffron goondas speak whatever they wish to on their shows. A new trend began after Modi came to power. The prime-time shows would invite one leader from Congress, one from BJP, one from VHP or the Sangh, one Sanghi journalist or one ‘neutral’ expert with sympathies for the Sangh. The anchors played the role of propagandists of Sangh Parivar. The vicious campaign that they launched to create divisions and communalise the situation needs to be studied. It does not matter whether the party win with one seat or two but what is important is that despite this propaganda, added with enormous financial power, the BJP lost and their defeat is significant, a signal that in the coming days, people are going to settle the issue themselves.
 
Despite the gravity of the economic crisis, Narendra Modi and his advisers continued to harp on Ram Mandir and the liars of the Sangh are saying on TV channels that it was not a political issue. It was a cultural issue for them. Who has given them the authority to speak for Hindus? Yogi Adityanath became a joke as he can’t give a single example of good governance in his state and the BJP made him a role model because they do not believe in governance, they only want to divide the society and keep spreading the poison.
 
We are happy that the BSP, CPM and other parties too have performed well in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. For a longer term, I would advise and had always advised an all India alliance between BSP and Congress. It is the need of the hour. You can go and do whatever you wish after 10 years but please do come together. The situation in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan would have been starkly different where the winning margins are less than a thousand votes in many constituencies.
 
Yesterday’s press conference by Rahul Gandhi was definitely refreshing of a leader whose time has arrived now. He remained humble and it felt that he understood how important it was to keep the opposition together and like-minded people along with you. Congress leaders have a habit of forgetting the ground realities once they are in power. It is time Congress sends the message to their karyakartas that the battle is not won yet and unless they unite the opposition and dislodge the current hate regime, they won’t sit idle.
 
I won’t go into debates about who should become the chief minister as it is their party prerogative, but we hope that the party will not dilly dally in the probes against mob lynching. The party should not appease anyone but just follow the rule of law. We do understand the dynamics of democratic polity but we want Congress and all other parties to adhere to rule of law and not allow any citizen of the country to feel left out.
 
Congress has not uttered a word on Dalits, Adivasis and Muslims. I know Congress continues to talk about the ‘Garib’ and ‘Kisans.’ I can understand that the party wants to play it safe, but we demand that our questions are answered, the public realities acknowledged and we want them to ensure that the govt will act honestly and not indulge in dirty games.

We hope your governments will take stringent action against the cow terrorists. You need not say anything but we know the Hindutva machinery will start playing the games of Muslim appeasement. Only an ideologically clear leadership can take these goons head-on.
 
Congress can learn a few lessons from Pinarayi Vijayan, the chief minister of Kerala and his handling of various issues created by the Sangh Parivar to vitiate the social harmony in the state through their Sabarimala game plan. Congress needs to fight the Sangh on ideological grounds and it can do that following the path of Baba Saheb Ambedkar, Jawahar Lal Nehru as well as EVR Periyar and others. We have a great legacy of Jyoti Ba Phule, Shaheed Bhagat Singh, Rahul Sankrityayan and many others. Nothing wrong in evoking these names in the greater interest of all. Those who don’t learn from history, can’t move ahead. No need for a Mahagatbandhan. It is important for Congress to stitch alliances at the local level and give space to smaller parties and social movements. Don’t get carried away with your success.
 
For the day, greetings to all. It is a morning of great hope for a nation which had been depressed in the past few years. The challenge is not yet over but all the parties must keep the momentum till the elections 2019 and defeat the forces of hatred and division in our society.
 

The post The dawn for three state elections should stay till 2019 appeared first on SabrangIndia.

The Rajasthan elections are out and the Congress is all set to form a government in the state along with also doing the same in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The ousting of the BJP from Rajasthan has also resulted in a larger number of Muslim candidates being elected to the Rajasthan assembly, even though interestingly this is the first time that no Muslim won from the BJP since 1998.  Compared with 2013 elections when the Rajasthan assembly had only two Muslim MLAs, this election resulted in seven Muslims from Congress and one Muslim from BSP winning. The Congress had given tickets to 15 Muslims in these elections.

Rafeek Khan, Adarshnagar Constituency(Photo: Social Media)

Rafeek Khan of Congress won from Adarsh Nagar seat with a margin of 12,553 over BJP’s Ashok Pamami, who was the current MLA of the region. In Kishan pole, Amin Kagzi won by a narrow margin of  a little less than 1,500 votes. The closest fight among the eight Muslim candidates was for Saleh Mohammed from Pokhran, who beat Pratap Pani from the BJP by a margin of just 929 votes. The same could not be said about Zahida Khan, however. The only Muslim female candidate who won, Khan received over 1 lakh votes. She defeated her closest candidate by a margin of over 39,000 votes. Along with Khan, another strong victory for Muslim candidates came from Danish Abrar, who is also the party’s spokesperson for the state. Abrar beat popular BJP leader Ashok Meena by a margin of over 25,000 votes. The other Muslim candidates who won on a Congress seat were Hakam Ali from Fatehpur and Amin Khan from Shau constituency.

Hakim Ali Khan (Photo: Social Media)

Interestingly, the only non-Congress Muslim candidate who won from Rajasthan came not from the BJP but the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). Ali won by a margin of over 25,000 against Nempal Singh of the Samajwadi Party with the Congress and the BJP relegated to third and fourth respectively.

WajibAli Naagar constituency ( Photo: Social Media)

The only BJP candidate who won in 2013 elections, Mohammed Younus, was essentially turned into a sacrificial lamb for these elections. Younus, who was the number 2 to Vasundhara Raje, was made to change his constituency on the last day and to make matters worse, he was made to contest against Sachin Pilot in Tonk. No surprises, then, that Younus lost by over 56,000 votes to Pilot who polled over 1 lakh votes.

Amin Khan who won for the 5th time (Photo: Social Media)

These elections across five states have resulted in a total of 19 Muslim candidates winning across Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan,  Telangana and Chattisgarh. While Rajasthan and Telangana saw eight Muslim candidates each, two Muslim candidates won from Madhya Pradesh while one Muslim candidate also won from Chattisgarh. No Muslim candidate contested from Mizoram.

Sohail Mohammed with his father Ghazi Fakeer from Pohkhran ( Photo: Social Meida)

Courtesy: Two Circles

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The post Assembly Verdict: Different Outcomes, But BJP is Biggest Loser appeared first on SabrangIndia.

In 2013, the BJP won 377 seats and the Congress 118 in these three states. The BJP had no seats in Mizoram in 2013, and this is the first state election for Telangana, which was created in 2014.

This means the BJP lost 48% of the seats it won in 2013, and the Congress gained 137%.

The difference in vote share between the two parties in Rajasthan and MP, both heartland Hindi-speaking states, was much closer, as we will explain; Congress vote shares in Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh rose by 6, 4, and 3 percentage points since 2013.

f 678 seats in MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram–which account for a sixth or 15.2% of India’s population–the Congress was ahead in 305 seats (304 wins and one lead), and the BJP had won 199 seats, as of 9am on December 12, 2018.
 

#MadhyaPradesh, #Rajasthan & #Chhattisgarh accounted for 21% of #BJP vote share in 2014 general elections; today’s #assemblyelections2018 results could impact party’s position in 2019 elections. #Results2018 https://t.co/TnYrrBG1hq
— IndiaSpend (@IndiaSpend) December 11, 2018

Mizoram and Telangana were won by regional parties, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) and the Mizo National Front, respectively. While the Congress won Chhattisgarh with 67 of 90 seats (from 39 in 2013) and Rajasthan by winning 99 of 199 (from 21 in 2013), MP went to the wire with the Congress on 114 (from 58 in 2013) and the BJP on 109 (from 165 in 2013).

Some highlights of our analysis :

• The Congress was 0.1 percentage point ahead of the BJP in MP. In

Rajasthan, it led by 0.5 percentage point.

• In Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh, where more than 70% of the population lives in rural areas, farm distress appears to have played a significant role but not in Telangana, which is 61% rural and exhibits similar distress, as we reported on December 6, 2018.
• In Chhattisgarh, MP and Rajasthan, where 43%, 36%, and 30%, respectively, of seats are reserved for scheduled tribes and scheduled castes, except for Rajasthan, the BJP recorded its worst performance in a decade, while the Congress recorded its best.

Wafer thin vote-share margins in MP, Rajasthan
A strong wave of anti-incumbency swept through MP and Chhattisgarh–states where the BJP had been in power for 15 years since 2003–and Rajasthan, where no party has stayed in power for more than one term.

In MP, the vote shares of the BJP and the Congress, were 41.2% and 41.3%, respectively. In 2013, the comparable vote shares were 45% and 36%.

In Rajasthan, the BJP and Congress vote shares were 38.8% and 39.3%, respectively. In 2013, the BJP vote share was 45% and the Congress 33%.

In Chhattisgarh, the BJP and Congress recorded vote shares of 32.9% and 43% respectively. In 2013, this was 41% for the BJP and 40% for the Congress.

Farm distress, it appears, played a key role in the BJP’s slide
n November 29, 2018, over 100,000 farmers from across India marched to Delhi to demand a special session of parliament to address India’s farming crisis. Nearly 80% or 20.4 million people in the Chhattisgarh, 66% or 69 million in Rajasthan and 55% or 73 million in MP–the Indian average is 47%–are engaged in agriculture, indicating that farm distress may have played a significant role in electoral outcomes.

Madhya Pradesh: Despite a 10.9% annual agricultural growth rate over eight years to 2015 (India’s highest), the state witnessed farmer agitations, IndiaSpend reported on November 30, 2018. As many as 1,321 farmers committed suicide in MP in 2016, the highest since 2013, according to government data. While farm suicides dropped 10% nationwide, MP witnessed a 21% increase two years to 2016.

f 230 seats polled for the MP assembly, the Congress won 114 seats, of which 79 seats were previously held by BJP, according to leads at 7.30 pm on December 11, 2018.

Chhattisgarh: In a state considered to be India’s rice bowl, 1,344 farmers–519 a year or, more than one per day–committed suicide in Chhattisgarh over 30 months to October 30, 2017, the Hindu Business Line reported on December 21, 2017.
As of 9am on December 12, 2018, the Congress had won 67 seats and was leading in one, of which 36 seats were previously held by the BJP, according to the latest election results.

Rajasthan: As in MP, farmers in Rajasthan also complained about not being able to meet costs, although the government increased the price at which it bought the kharif (monsoon) and rabi (winter) harvests.
Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje announced in February, 2018 that debts up to Rs 50,000 would be waived, but farmers demanded a full waiver, which the Congress promised.
f 199 seats in the Rajasthan assembly, the Congress had won 99 seats. Of this, 75 seats were previously held by the BJP.

Telangana: In the four-and-a-half years since it won statehood, Telangana reported acute farm distress, with 2,190 farmers committing suicide–more than one every day–according to data from the state government’s police department, IndiaSpend reported on December 6, 2018.
ver 89% of rural agrarian households in Telangana are in debt–the Indian average is 52%–the second highest proportion in India after Andhra Pradesh, according to the Telangana Social Development Report published by the state government.
Yet, the TRS won 88 (48%) of 119 seats, surpassing the 60 required for a majority. Chief minister K. Chandrashekar Rao, who has been in power since the state’s formation in 2014, will return for a second term.

Over a third of BJP’s losses recorded in SC/ ST seats
Across Chhattisgarh, MP and Rajasthan, the BJP lost 57 or 34% of 170 seats reserved for scheduled castes, or dalits, and scheduled tribes.

Chhattisgarh
In Chhattisgarh, where 31% of the population is Adivasi, or from scheduled tribes–the highest concentration among India’s large states–the BJP’s popularity in 29 tribal-dominated constituencies further dwindled from 2013.
Seats for scheduled castes (13% of the population) and scheduled tribes together account for 43% of the state assembly’s 90 seats.
As of 7 pm on December 11, 2018, the incumbent party–in power for 15 years to 2018, with Raman Singh the party’s longest-running chief minister–was leading in eight reserved seats (28%), three fewer than in 2013 when it had won 11. In 2008, the BJP had won 19 scheduled-tribe seats.

In contrast, the Congress retained its lead over 18 seats, equalling the number it had won in 2013 and increasing by eight the seats it won in 2008.
In an indication of tribal disaffection against incumbent MLAs, in 12 of 29 seats reserved for STs in Chhattisgarh, BJP lost eight and the Congress lost four seats. Janata Congress Chhattisgarh won one seat.
The BJP failed to retain its hold over Chhattisgarh’s assembly constituencies reserved for scheduled castes. Of 10 seats reserved for scheduled castes, the party was leading in two, down from nine it had won in 2013, latest results showed. The Congress was leading in seven, up one from 2013.

These election results echo our findings from travelling across India’s tribal heartland in November 2018. The state’s failure to settle forest land claims led to tension roiling in tribal dominated areas, IndiaSpend reported on November 20, 2018, and this was reflected in the performance of incumbents in scheduled-tribe constituencies.

Of 887,665 title claims, Chhattisgarh’s government issued 416,359 titles across 2.7 million acres, which is 7.8% of the state’s area or 18% of its forest area, according to our analysis of title data. Experts further believe nearly half the tribal population has not even demanded their rights yet. Community forest rights–central to the agency of Adivasi tribes, as they recognise the authority of the gram sabha (village council) to protect, manage and conserve traditional forests–account for 4.4% or 18,178 of the titles distributed.  

Madhya Pradesh
In MP, where tribals account for 21% of the population and scheduled castes 16%, the BJP recorded its worst performance in these constituencies, losing 25 of 82 reserved seats, or 36% of assembly seats. The Congress gained 26 scheduled caste and scheduled tribe seats over 2013, its best performance in a decade.

As of 7 pm on December 11, 2018, the BJP was leading in 21 of 47 seats reserved for STs, losing its hold over 10 seats from 2013, when it had won 31. In 2008, the BJP had won 29 seats.

The Congress has won 23 seats–after winning 15 seats in 2013, and 17 in 2008.

Of 35 seats reserved for scheduled castes, the BJP won 13 seats, 15 down from the 28 it had won in 2013 and 25 in 2008. The Congress won 22 of these seats, up from four in 2013 and nine in 2008.

Rajasthan
In Rajasthan, 59 seats or 30% of 200 assembly seats, are reserved for scheduled castes and scheduled tribes.

Among 34 scheduled-caste seats, the BJP won 14, down 18 from 2013, when it won 32 seats, highest in a decade. In 2008, it won 14 of these seats.

After losing all seats reserved for scheduled castes in 2013, the Congress won 18 in 2018, equalling its 2008 performance.

Of 25 seats reserved for Adivasis, as of 7 pm on December 11, 2018, the BJP was leading in 12 constituencies, the Congress in 11. The BJP is down six seats over the previous election, when it won 18 scheduled-tribe seats. In 2013, the Congress won four seats reserved for Adivasis. 

(Saldanha is an assistant editor and Paliath is an analyst with IndiaSpend. With inputs by Abhivyakti Banerjee, Anmol Alphonso and Sejal Singh, interns with IndiaSpend.)

Courtesy: India Spend
 

The post BJP Down 180 Seats, Congress Up 162 In 3 Hindi-Heartland States; In Dalit, Adivasi Constituencies, BJP’s Worst Performance In A Decade appeared first on SabrangIndia.

The pamphlet that has been issued by one “Matdata Jagaran Manch- Chittaud Vibhag”, calls for keeping a ‘Rashtriya Drushtikon’ (nationalist perspective) while voting.

It goes on to say that Bharat can’t be defeated, it can be broken from inside.

In a section titled politics of myth, the pamphlet says that it’s a myth that Ram and Krishna are imaginary characters and that Aryans had come to India from outside. Equating Aryans with Hindus, it goes to say that it’s a myth that this country is not one for Hindus.

In another section titled “politics of human-rights” it points out to a few incidents:
It says that slogans meant to “break the nation” were raised in universities in Delhi and Hyderabad.

It condemns the criticism of human rights groups to pellet guns. In this section it also condemns the opposition to death penalty to those like Afzal Guru and Yakub Memon.

The rest of the pamphlet is similarly filled with hate filled and myth making rhetoric and aims to incite hatred and violence.

It calls for a “decisive war” in which the “Hindu society” will fight the forces attacking the nation, the forces in question here are human rights and student activists.

The pamphlet also accuses human rights activists to play the politics of separatism and says that forces are creating the situation of a civil war inside the country. It names Jignesh Mevani, Hardik Patel, Umar Khalid and Kanhaiya Kumar as part of ‘Tukde tukde gang’.

On the one hand, Rajasthan is struggling with instances of cow vigilantism and a growing pattern of extortion in the name of cow protection, on the other such pamphlets are being used to meet political aspirations and consolidating votes. Rajasthan has still not recovered from the lynching of Rakbar Khan on July 21. At the same time development issues such as employment opportunities for youth plague the state. The pamphlet is clearly full of nationalist and hate filled rhetoric and should be taken seriously by local groups working in the area.
 

The post Hate pamphlets circulated before Rajasthan elections appeared first on SabrangIndia.

Image: Reuters

Rajasthan’s vanishing cattle bazaars
As per the 19th Livestock census 2012, there are 577.32 lakhs Livestock (which include Cattle, buffalo, Sheep, Goat, Horse & Ponies, Mules, Donkeys, Camel, Pig) and 80.24 lakhs Poultry. Dairy cows, bullocks, buffaloes and camels are the most commonly traded animals, though horses and sheep are also traded. Popular govansh (an umbrella term that covers cows, oxen, bullocks and sundry bovines) breeds traded in Rajasthan include Rathi, Kankrej, Nagour, Tharparkar, Sanchori and Mehwati. Murrah is the only buffalo breed traded in the state.

There are 9 major cattle fairs organised across Rajasthan in accordance with State Livestock Fair Act 1963. Apart from Bharatpur and Ajmer, perhaps the most popular animal market the annual Pushkar Fair, that is internationally renowned for its camel market. However, Pushkar is also a marketplace where cows, oxen and bulls are bought and sold. According to the Lokhit Pashu Palan Sansthan, 17,604 animals were sold at the Pushkar fair in 2011 that included 8238 camels, 4403 horses and 4256 cattle. But the number of cattle sold dropped to a measly 8 in 2017!

As per data compiled by Rajasthan’s Department of Animal Husbandry, there has been a drop of over 90 per cent in cattle sales between 2012-13 and 2016-17 across Rajasthan’s nine state-level livestock fairs. In 2012-13, while 54,423 cattle were brought to the nine state-level fairs, 37,249 of these were sold. In 2016-17, this figure had dropped significantly. Only 10,827 were offered for sale and only 2,973 were bought. As per the same data, cumulative earnings by cattle owners at fairs, which stood at Rs 92.18 crore in 2012-13, dropped to Rs 39.42 crore in 2016-17. Meanwhile, the revenues for the Animal Husbandry Department have also taken a beating. The Department that earns revenue through sales of receipts, made a meagre Rs 1.88 lakhs in 2016-17 as opposed to Rs 7 lakh in 2012-13.

Cow Vigilantism leading to Stray Cattle Menace
Rajasthan has witnessed a series of well documented instances of cow vigilantism and lynching such as Pehlu Khan, Umar Mohammed and most recently Rakhbar alias Akbar Khan. This is why few dairy farmers go cattle shopping in the state. In fact, cow vigilantes have reportedly turned this fear into an extortion racket, where dairy farmers who are taking their newly bought cattle back home are routinely waylaid or lynched unless they cough up a hefty amount to ensure safe travel.

Meanwhile, the inability to get rid of aging and unproductive bovines has meant that many cattle are abandoned by farmers. These stray cattle wreak havoc on standing crops and add to farmer’s woes. According to the State government, over 80 per cent of rural families keep livestock in Rajasthan. This is by no means an insignificant vote bank.

So the big question is, if electoral fortunes depend on the blessings of the holy cow, which political party will milk the benefits this election season.

The post Who will Gau Mata bless in the Rajasthan Elections? appeared first on SabrangIndia.

It was the best of times for the BJP in Rajasthan: they swept the assembly elections in December 2013, winning as many as 163 seats in the 200-member Assembly, reducing the incumbent Congress to a humiliating 21 seats. Within months, Modi led the BJP to power at the Centre too. What more could you desire?

Yet five years down the line, BJP Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje is fighting a losing battle in the state. Various ground reports, and pre-poll surveys appear to indicate that the BJP is on its way out. Raje’s tours of the state have received indifferent reception, Modi’s rallies are not inspiring the same zest as before, Amit Shah’s supposed master strategy of organising the campaign is stumbling and floundering. Money is reportedly flowing like water, the state is bristling with BJP hoardings and flags, but the energy is not there because the people are sullen and discontented.

So, what went wrong?

It is customary among media commentators and pollsters to ascribe electoral ups and downs to things like caste, individual popularity (or otherwise), rebellion and factionalism etc. This can be called the royalist or palace intrigue method of election analysis. “Raje is losing the polls because she is not available after eight o’clock in the night”. “Rajputs are angry because of Padmavat”. “BJP is losing many seats because of bad ticket distribution”. And so on.

Such analysts are averse to look for deeper causes, partly because of ideological hostility and partly because it requires too much work. And then, it becomes a circle – everybody writes or says that caste equations are causing damage to Raje, and they refer to each other approvingly – that becomes the ‘truth’.

In Rajasthan, there is groundswell of anger against the aggressive economic policies imposed by the Raje government, egged on and applauded throughout by Modi and his apologists in Delhi. Here are some prominent features of these policies.

Neglect of Farmers: The Raje government aggravated the already existing imbalance between the farmer and the inputs he/she uses for cultivation by allowing prices of essential inputs like electricity, diesel, seeds, fertlisers, pesticides, etc. to increase unchecked. It refused to either hike (or add to) the Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) or increase procurement by setting up widely distributed procurement centres. As a result, big farmers and more importantly, big traders, looted the small farmers at will, driving down prices. The whole MSP system practically collapsed. For instance, in October this year, jowar was sold by farmers at an average price of Rs 1,829 per quintal compared to the MSP of Rs 2,340. Urad dal was sold at Rs 2,904 per quintal average price compared to the MSP of Rs 5,600, as reported earlier by Newsclick.

As a result, there developed extensive discontent among farmers which broke out repeatedly in the form of huge struggles for better prices. In 2017, the state government appeared to bow to the demands, but then backtracked, and in fact, cracked down on protesters, arresting their leaders and stopping the farmers from marching to Jaipur. This betrayal further added to the anger of the farmers.

Rural Wages Stagnant: Between January 2015 and August 2018, wages of agricultural workers increased from Rs 278.67 per day to Rs 291.25 for men and from Rs 202.73 to Rs 254.00 per day for women, according to the Labour Bureau. That’s a rise of about 4.5 per cent in three years and eight months. The inflation rate itself is about 4-5 per cent per annum. In other words, real wages seem to have declined under the BJP rule in Rajasthan. This stagnation in agricultural wages is a key factor behind the anger among the vast number of agricultural workers in the state.

Industrial Workers Anger: Industrial workers in the state have borne the brunt of an unbridled attack by the Raje government. This has taken the form of a massive dilution of labour laws, much more than the Modi government has dared to do at the country level, and also a wage squeeze, which is reflected in the fact that minimum wages in Rajasthan are among the lowest in the country. As per the latest notification in 2018, the minimum monthly wage rate is Rs 5,538 for ‘unskilled’ workers, Rs 5,798 for ‘semi-skilled’ workers, Rs 6,058 for ‘skilled’ workers, and Rs 7,358 for ‘highly skilled’ workers. Note that the minimum wage calculations show that Rs 18,000 is the minimum requirement for a family of four, and this is what is recommended for central government employees. This combined with the free rein given to industrialists to hire and fire workers by diluting the relevant provisions of the ID Act and the Factories Act has pushed workers to the brink. They are seething with anger at the Raje government.

Joblessness: According to data collected by Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) this year, youth (20-29 years) unemployment rate in Rajasthan has soared to unprecedented levels, one of the highest in country, and has reached 55 per cent. Even among graduates, joblessness is raging at a whopping 21 per cent. Among women, it is 53 per cent. The loss-making nature of farming in the state, the low rates of wages for agricultural and industrial workers, the squeeze in public expenditure and investment have contributed to this situation, as has the fact that mitigating measures like the rural jobs guarantee program etc. have been floundering. The Raje government has remained a mute spectator to this growing distress. This has caused a deep and undiluted anger to build up among the people, especially youth. It must be remembered that large sections of youth had voted for Modi in 2014 based on his promises to provide jobs to 10 million people. In Rajasthan too, in the campaign for 2013 Assembly elections, similar state-level promises had been made by Raje and others. Hence, the sense of betrayal is all the more aggravated.

In addition, the state government has racked up an enormous amount of debt as per RBI – some 33.6 per cent of the GSDP, compared to 23.3 per cent in 2014 when the Raje government took charge. Most of this debt is owed to banks. And, the increased liabilities have not meant that more money is being spent on people’s welfare. In fact, development expenditure as a share of aggregate expenditure has declined.

These are the real reasons why the Raje government is set to lose in Rajasthan. And, it is a lesson for Modi too – for his government has been following similar policies throughout the country.

Courtesy: Newsclick.in
 

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Could you tell us a little more about the Dangawas atrocity incident and the struggles you had to go through?
Let me start by saying that it was one of the most shameful cases of atrocity against Dalits witnessed in Independent India. On May 14, 2015, about 350 people from the Jat community came to the village in over 30 cars and bikes. A Dalit family was working on its land which the Jats wanted to capture. The Jats attacked the Dalits in ways one can’t imagine: an elderly man’s eyes were gouged out with a burning piece of wood, women were hit in their private parts and three people were crushed under a tractor while dozens were left severely injured. And despite the police having information about the same, they chose to do nothing. But it was due to our struggles and fight against the Vasundhara Raje government which wanted to shield the perpetrators that the matter reached the United Nations. Finally, a CBI inquiry was initiated in the case. However, the truth is that much before CBI came into the picture the local police had gone out of its way to remove evidence in the matter.

A lot of people including the village Sarpanch tried to push the narrative that the violence was the result of a land dispute. What is your opinion?
The attack was planned well in advance. During the investigation, we came to know that the family members of the attackers and various other members of the community knew of the impending attacks. Similarly, the police also had information about it but chose to do nothing. The Jat community had celebrations after the attacks and said that this would be the fate of any and everyone who tried to speak against them. They compared these attacks with the Muzaffarnagar riots in UP to make their point. Not only that, videos of the atrocities were circulated by the Jat community and people congratulated each other. This shows that the incident was carefully planned as a ‘lesson’ to the Dalits.

So what about justice to the victims?
Talking about justice seems inappropriate when the attacks are yet to stop. This area is known as Jat land as they are about 60% of the population. But despite CBI action in the Dangawas case, even today the condition is so bad that a Dalit groom cannot sit on a horse for his wedding. Even the Dalit legislatures sit on the ground when talking to Jats. People who killed Delta Meghwal remain free and are living without any problem.

If we compare the murder of Delta Meghwal and the murder of three Dalits in Dangawas, what are the common traits you see? What has been the role of the government?
To understand the common traits, we need to see how Dalits are perceived by dominant castes. In the case of Dangawas, the attack was meant to show that Dalits can only be land labourers, not owners. This attack was meant to crush the Dalit aspirations and their self-confidence. Similarly, Delta was a talented student who spoke in English and was progressive in her ideas. She wanted to grow in her career and her dreams were big. This clearly made some upper castes uncomfortable and the result was that she was killed too. Both attacks are a way to tell Dalits that they cannot aspire for a better and more honourable life. The other thing that was common in both these cases was that the Rajasthan government tried to shield both sets of accused.

The current state government has 32 Dalit MLAs including 16 from the Meghwal community. How come we still see attacks on Dalit communities?
The state has become hell for Dalits despite so many Dalit MLAs. The MLA from Dangawas is also from the Meghwal community but did not even bother to pick our call after the attacks. When he goes to meet Jats he removes his shoes and sits on the floor. Such MLAs are eternally grateful to the dominant castes for helping them win. In such a scenario even 64 MLAs are useless. Their lips are sealed.

Earlier this year the country saw massive Dalit protests across the country. What was your role in the same and why do you think people were so angry?
Dalits and their mentality are changing now and they are ready to protest. My husband is a Professor, his brother is an IAS officer and I am also doing my PhD. We know what our community wants and that we will not settle for second-class treatment. Dalits and their anger against feudalism and casteism are strong and on April 2 we came out on the streets to protest against the same. We will no longer be slaves and submit to other’s orders.

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