Elections 2019: Likely BJP Rout in 6th Phase, Gathbandhan Far Ahead Overall

Mon, 13 May 2019 04:04:19 +0000

Compared with 2014, when BJP won 13 of the 14 seats polling in 6th phase, projections for 2019 show that the party will lose all the seats this time, its cumulative loss for all six phases mounting to 44 seats.

Image Courtesy: Countercurrents

The election battle comes to head in eastern UP’s 14 seats on May 12, which Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its ally Apna Dal had swept in 2014, winning all but one seat (Azamgarh, where Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh had won). But projections from the 2017 Assembly polls with an additional swing of voters away from the BJP indicate that the tables will be turned on them by the surging Gathbandhan (alliance).

Contesting separately, the Gathbandhan parties (Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, Rashtriya Lok Dal) had together polled about 51% of the votes cast in 2017 Assembly elections, leaving BJP and its allies far behind with 37% votes. Projecting from this would give the Gathbandhan 12 of the 14 seats polling on May 12. Add a 2.5% swing away from the BJP, which is ruling the Centre as well as the state, and the rout becomes complete as the BJP tally ends up in zero.

In the six phases of polling that will get completed on May 12, a total of 67 of UP’s 80 seats would have gone to polls. The BJP had won 60 of these seats in 2014. But Newsclick projections indicate that this time round, it will have to be content with just 16 seats while the Gathbandhan will win 49 seats. Congress will remain at its previous tally of two seats.

These projections, computed by Newsclick’s data analytics team, are based on a seat by seat projection from the votes polled by all parties in the 2017 Assembly polls. The swing away from BJP (2.5%) is based on analysis of diverse factors, including farmers’ distress at low produce prices, the stray cattle menace, high unemployment, increasing marginalisation and attacks on minorities and dalits and the overall discontent with the Yogi Adityanath-led BJP state government.

It may be recalled that the two rival opposition parties, the SP and BSP had come together creating a formidable bloc of social classes and castes that the BJP has been finding difficult to challenge. The Gathbandhan, as this alliance is popularly known as, includes the RLD, too, which has presence mainly in West UP.

The BJP, too, has its alliance with small parties, mainly based on specific caste communities, like the Apna Dal, Nishad Party, Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party, etc. However, this alliance is cracking up though it continues in name. The widespread discontent against BJP’s rule has forced these small allies to repeatedly drift away only to be brought back by lucrative offers by the BJP. In the process, their respective social bases have become disillusioned and may well drift away.

The continuing losses of the BJP and its allies in UP means that till the sixth phase, the party has already lost 44 seats that it won last time.

That could be a stunning blow to the prospects of Narendra Modi becoming Prime Minister again, because in the rest of the country too his party is facing losses.

(Data analysis by Peeyush Sharma)

Courtesy: News Click

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Elections 2019: Gathbandhan Leads in Phase 5 of UP; Overall, BJP Slips Further

Mon, 06 May 2019 05:55:22 +0000

Projections indicate that of the 53 seats in UP that will complete polling on May 6, the SP+BSP+RLD alliance leads BJP 35-16.

In the 5th phase of polling in Uttar Pradesh, the formidable Gathbandhan (alliance) will consolidate its decisive lead over the Bharatiya Janata Party, winning eight of the 14 seats while the Congress will retain its two seats. The BJP will have to content itself with just four seats. Compared with the 2014 polls, this would be another dismal showing by the ruling BJP, which had then won 12 of these seats. This is indicated by seat projections done by Newsclick’s data analytics team using the 2017 Assembly election results and factoring in a 2.5% swing away from the BJP.Adding up the projected results from the first five phases of polling in UP, the Gathbandhan of Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) is set to get 35 of the 53 seats, up from just four seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The Congress is projected to retain its two seats while the BJP will slide from 47 seats in 2014 to 16 this time round, as per the projections.

The fifth phase covers constituencies in the Awadh region, with some part of the Bundelkhand also thrown in. Lucknow is the biggest city going to polls in this phase. Also included is the Faizabad constituency, where Ayodhya, the site of the disputed Ram Janmabhoomi/Babri Masjid, is located. The region stretches from the extremely neglected terai districts of Bahraich and part of Kheri, through the fertile plains to the arid and backward Bundelkhand district of Banda.

A predominantly agrarian region, with minimal industrialisation, some of the districts exhibit shockingly low health and educational markers (See constituency checker section of Factchecker.in, set up by IndiaSpend in collaboration with Newsclick).

For instance, in Bahraich district in the terai region, 65% of children under 5 years were stunted and 74% were anaemic. The drop-out rate at class V level was a staggering 41% and only 16% of women had completed 10 years of schooling. In Mohanlalganj district, right next to Lucknow, 41% of children were stunted and 68% suffered from anaemia. Over 55% of women were anaemic. In Banda, at the southern end, things were not much different with over 48% of under 5 children stunted and 67% anaemic. Only 26% women had 10 years or more of schooling.

The projected loss of BJP in this part of UP is a clear sign of the shape of things to come in the forthcoming sixth and seventh phases of polling, which cover constituencies very similar to the ones in this fifth phase. It is a very heavy population density region falling in the eastern part of UP and has been traditionally a stronghold of both SP and BSP. Their coming together is bound to make the Gathbandhan a very strong force, as was foretold in the Gorakhpur and Phulpur bypolls held last year where seats held by Yogi Adityanath, chief minister of the state, and Keshav Prasad Maurya, deputy CM, were ceded to the Gathbandhan.

Courtesy: News Click

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Elections 2019: Likely BJP Rout in 6th Phase, Gathbandhan Far Ahead Overall

Compared with 2014, when BJP won 13 of the 14 seats polling in 6th phase, projections for 2019 show that the party will lose all the seats this time, its cumulative loss for all six phases mounting to 44 seats.

Elections 2019: Gathbandhan Leads in Phase 5 of UP; Overall, BJP Slips Further

Projections indicate that of the 53 seats in UP that will complete polling on May 6, the SP+BSP+RLD alliance leads BJP 35-16.